ProbabilityProbability

How likely is an event to How likely is an event to occur?occur?

What are the chances of that What are the chances of that happening??!!happening??!!

Lesson objectives:Lesson objectives:

To understand the terms To understand the terms ‘equal ‘equal chance’chance’ and and ‘outcome’‘outcome’ when when thinking about probability.thinking about probability.

To complete a maths investigation To complete a maths investigation involving tossing a coin and involving tossing a coin and rolling a dice!rolling a dice!

- to test the ‘equal chance’ theory! - to test the ‘equal chance’ theory!

Mathematical VocabularyMathematical Vocabulary

We can describe the We can describe the probabilityprobability or or chancechance of an event happening by of an event happening by saying:saying:

It is It is IMPOSSIBLEIMPOSSIBLE.. It is It is UNLIKELY.UNLIKELY.

It is It is LIKELY.LIKELY. It is It is CERTAIN.CERTAIN.

Some events have an equal Some events have an equal chance of happening or not chance of happening or not

happening.happening.

Can you think Can you think of any?of any?

We discussed these:We discussed these: If you toss a coin you have an equal If you toss a coin you have an equal

chance of getting a head or a tail. chance of getting a head or a tail. Heads or tails are the ‘outcomes’.Heads or tails are the ‘outcomes’.

If a baby is born it has an equal chance If a baby is born it has an equal chance of being a boy or a girl. Boy or girl are of being a boy or a girl. Boy or girl are the ‘outcomes’.the ‘outcomes’.

If you roll a dice you have an equal If you roll a dice you have an equal chance of getting the number 1, 2, 3, 4, chance of getting the number 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6! These scores are the ‘outcomes’.5 or 6! These scores are the ‘outcomes’.

Today’s task:Today’s task:

We are going to carry out a maths We are going to carry out a maths investigation.investigation.

We are going to investigate whether We are going to investigate whether we have an equal number of heads and we have an equal number of heads and tails when we toss a coin 30 times.tails when we toss a coin 30 times.

We will also investigate whether we We will also investigate whether we get an equal number of 1s, 2s, 3s, 4, 5s get an equal number of 1s, 2s, 3s, 4, 5s and 6s when we roll a dice 30 times.and 6s when we roll a dice 30 times.

We will record our findings.We will record our findings.

What do you think we will What do you think we will find out?find out?

Perhaps we will have 15 heads and Perhaps we will have 15 heads and 15 tails when we toss our coin 30 15 tails when we toss our coin 30

times??times?? Perhaps we will have each number Perhaps we will have each number on the dice 5 times. (five scores of 1, on the dice 5 times. (five scores of 1,

five scores of 2 etc.)five scores of 2 etc.)

It’s up to you to find out!!!!It’s up to you to find out!!!!

Did we achieve out learning objectives Did we achieve out learning objectives today?today?

We understand what is meant by the We understand what is meant by the terms ‘equal chance’ and ‘outcomes’.terms ‘equal chance’ and ‘outcomes’.

We have carried out an investigation We have carried out an investigation into ‘equal chance’.into ‘equal chance’.

We have recorded our findings.We have recorded our findings.

Things to think about!Things to think about!

If we rolled 2 coins what possible If we rolled 2 coins what possible outcomes could we get?outcomes could we get?

If we rolled more than 1 dice what If we rolled more than 1 dice what possible outcomes could we get?possible outcomes could we get?

What would our chances of getting 2 What would our chances of getting 2 heads or a 6 be like then?!!!heads or a 6 be like then?!!!