prisoners of birth: tedx whitefield

28
All men are equal: It is NOT BIRTH, but virtue alone, that makes the difference. -- Voltaire

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All men are equal:

It is NOT BIRTH,

but virtue alone,

that makes the difference.

-- Voltaire

2

My name starts with "A".

Called early for all questions,

submissions, etc.. at class.

Often unprepared, struggled

against classmates named "V…".

But I learned to be prepared –

always.

But does the first letter of the

name actually affect the marks?

I WAS NAMED “ANAND” AT BIRTH

3

2005First letter marks

A

P

V

D

S

N

K

R

B

G

M

V

A

P

D

S

K

N

B

R

G

M

59.2%

58.9%

58.9%

58.8%

57.9%

56.3%

56.2%

56.1%

55.4%

54.5%

54.4%

66.5%

65.9%

65.8%

65.2%

64.3%

64.0%

63.4%

62.8%

62.6%

61.5%

61.1%

2011First letter marks

Source: Karnataka State Board exams (8 – 8.5 lakh students per year)

COMPARE MARKS BY FIRST LETTER

WHYdoes it matter?

Highest

Lowest

4

COMPARE MARKS BY STUDENT NAMES

Jain

Harini

Shweta

Sneha Pooja

Ashwin

Shah

Deepti

Sanjana

Varshini

Ezhumalai

Venkatesan

Silambarasan

Pandiyan

Kumaresan

Manikandan

Thirupathi

Agarwal

Kumar

Priya

LINK

NAMES DO MATTER

BUT NOT FOR REASONS I THOUGHT

6

WHILE COUNTING NAMES, I SPOTTED SOMETHING STRANGE

Name Count

MANIKANDAN 9,778

PRIYA 8,399

VIGNESH 7,298

SARANYA 6,449

SUGANYA 5,463

SANGEETHA 4,640

SARAVANAN 4,022

16% higher

15% higher

13% higher

18% higher

18% higher

15% higher

These ratios are very steady.

If we plot them on a log-log

graph, they form a straight line.

3.55

3.6

3.65

3.7

3.75

3.8

3.85

3.9

3.95

4

4.05

4.1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

7

THIS IS ALSO TRUE OF CANDIDATE NAMES IN ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

Name CountNONE OF THE ABOVE 629OM PRAKASH 478ASHOK KUMAR 411RAM SINGH 362RAJ KUMAR 294ANIL KUMAR 271AMAR SINGH 248MOHAN LAL 235RAM KUMAR 224BABU LAL 218RAM PRASAD 213JAGDISH 210VIJAY KUMAR 207RAJENDRA SINGH 196VINOD KUMAR 195SHYAM LAL 193RAJESH KUMAR 186SITA RAM 186RAM LAL 171...

WAIT… WHAT? 478 OM PRAKASHS?

8

ARE DUPLICATE CANDIDATE NAMES COMMON?

State Constituency Affected candidate Party Count

Chattisgarh Mahasamund Chandu Lal Sahu BJP 11

Chattisgarh Bilaspur Lakhan Lal Sahu BJP 5

Delhi West Delhi Jarnail Singh AAP 3

Madhya Pradesh Rewa Janardan Mishra BJP 2

Uttar Pradesh Mathura Hema Malini BJP 2

Haryana Kurukshetra Raj Kumar Saini BJP 2

Madhya Pradesh Hoshangabad Uday Pratap Singh BJP 2

Maharashta Osmanabad Gaikward Ravindra Vishwanath Shivsena 2

Haryana Sonipat Padam Singh INLD 2

Tamil Nadu Salem Umarani S DMDK 2

Uttar Pradesh Unnao Anil Kumar SPI 2

Duplicate candidate names were very uncommon

until 2014 – when suddenly, several constituencies

had candidates with the same name as the sitting

MP – making it more confusing for voters.

The affected candidate and party (the

ones who suffered because of the

confusion) are listed. Note the absence of

the largest party – INC.

9

SPEAKING OF CANDIDATE NAMES… LINK

10

… AND ALSO OF NAMES MENTIONED IN BOLLYWOOD MOVIES10

Person CountLata Mangeshkar 824Asha Bhosle 810Shakti Kapoor 589Kishore Kumar 585Mohammed Rafi 527Sunidhi Chauhan 515Alka Yagnik 451Udit Narayan 435Kader Khan 430Sonu Nigam 405Sameer 398Asrani 397Helen 395Shaan 377Aruna Irani 375Anupam Kher 367Shreya Ghoshal 357Gulshan Grover 341...

POPULARITY FEEDS ON ITSELF

SO YOUR NAME WAS INFLUENCED WELL BEFORE YOU WERE BORN

BUT IS THIS UNIQUE TO NAMES?FOR EXAMPLE, HOW ARE MARKS DISTRIBUTED?

13

TN CLASS X: ENGLISH

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

14

TN CLASS X: SOCIAL SCIENCE

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

15

TN CLASS X: MATHEMATICS

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

MATHEMATICAL ABILITY IS INNATE

WHAT ELSE IS INFLUENCED AT BIRTH?

17

GENDER

DIFFERENCE

Do girls score more than

boys, or is it the other way

around?

Gender is a known driver of

performance. Girls generally

score higher. There is

considerable variation across

subjects, however. The

differences in sciences is

minimal. But languages,

commerce and economics

give girls a significant edge.

There is also a correlation

between girls’ dropout ratio

and their over-performance

– indicating perhaps that the

smarter girls tend to stay

back in school.

Subject Girs higher by Girls Boys

Physics 0 119 119

Chemistry 1 123 122

English 4 130 126

Computers 6 137 131

Biology 6 129 123

Mathematics 11 123 112

Language 11 152 141

Accounting 12 138 126

Commerce 13 127 114

Economics 16 142 126

WHO SCORES MORE? BOYS OR

GIRLS?

18

HOW DOES PLACE OF BIRTH AFFECT PERFORMANCE?

Coastal areas have a

consistently better performance

YOUR BIRTHDAY ITSELF IS NOT

RANDOM

20

This is a dataset (1975 – 1990) that has

been around for several years, and has

been studied extensively. Yet, a

visualization can reveal patterns that

are neither obvious nor well known.

For example,

• Are birthdays uniformly distributed?

• Do doctors or parents exercise the C-section option to move dates?

• Is there any day of the month that has unusually high or low births?

• Are there any months with relatively high or low births?

Very high births in September.

But this is fairly well known. Most

conceptions happen during the

winter holiday season

Relatively few births during the

Christmas and Thanksgiving

holidays, as well as New Year and

Independence Day.

Most people prefer not

to have children on the

13th of any month, given

that it’s an unlucky day

Some special days like April

Fool’s day are avoided, but

Valentine’s Day is quite

popular

More births Fewer births … on average, for each day of the year (from 1975 to 1990)

LET’S LOOK AT 15 YEARS OF US BIRTH DATA LINK

ARE LUCKY DATES FOR REAL?DOES THE SUN SIGN MATTER, FOR EXAMPLE?

22

The marks shoot

up for Aug borns

… and peaks for

Sep-borns

120 marks out of

1200 explainable

by month of birth

An identical pattern was observed in 2009 and 2010…

… and across districts, gender, subjects, and class X & XII.

“It’s simply that in Canada the eligibility

cut-off for age-class hockey is January

1. A boy who turns ten on January 2,

then, could be playing alongside

someone who doesn’t turn ten until the

end of the year—and at that age, in

preadolescence, a twelve-month gap in

age represents an enormous difference

in physical maturity.”

-- Malcolm Gladwell, Outliers

SUN SIGNS

Based on the results of the

20 lakh students taking the

Class XII exams at Tamil

Nadu over the last 3 years, it

appears that the month you

were born in can make a

difference of as much as 120

marks out of 1,200.

June borns

score the lowest

23

THE PATTERN IN INDIA IS QUITE DIFFERENT

This is a birth date dataset that’s

obtained from school admission data

for over 10 million children. When we

compare this with births in the US, we

see none of the same patterns.

For example,

• Is there an aversion to the 13th or is there a local cultural nuance?

• Are holidays avoided for births?

• Which months have a higher propensity for births, and why?

• Are there any patterns not found in the US data?

Very few children are born in the

month of August, and thereafter.

Most births are concentrated in

the first half of the year

We see a large number of

children born on the 5th, 10th,

15th, 20th and 25th of each month

– that is, round numbered dates

Such round numbered patterns a

typical indication of fraud. Here,

birthdates are brought forward to

aid early school admission

More births Fewer births … on average, for each day of the year (from 2007 to 2013)

LINK

24

THIS ADVERSELY IMPACTS CHILDREN’S MARKS

It’s a well established fact that older

children tend to do better at school in

most activities. Since many children

have had their birth dates brought

forward, these younger children suffer.

The average marks of children “born” on the 1st, 5th, 10th, 15th etc.. of

the month tend to score lower marks.

• Are holidays avoided for births?

• Which months have a higher propensity for births, and why?

• Are there any patterns not found in the US data?

Higher marks Lower marks … on average, for children born on a given day of the year (from 2007 to 2013)

Children “born” on round numbered days score lower marks on average,

due to a higher proportion of younger children

LINK

WHAT AFFECTS OUR MARKS?BEHAVIOR OR BIRTH?

26

NATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT SURVEY FOR CLASS 8 (2014)

What do the children in schools know and can do at

different stages of elementary education?

Have the inputs made into the elementary education

system had a beneficial effect or not?

LINK

27

HAVING EDUCATED PARENTS HELPS MOST

This table shows the % improvement in score due to each factor

LINK

28

WE ARE, IN OUR SMALL WAYS, PRISONERS OF OUR BIRTH

HOW we’re called by parents

WHAT skills we are good at

WHAT gender we’re born as

WHEN we’re born

WHERE we’re born

WHOM we’re born to

OUR BIRTH DID MAKE A DIFFERENCE. LET’S BE THANKFUL