priorities for public sector research on food security and climate change, review 1 by dale andrew,...

HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE ALTER AGRICULTURAL STRATEGIES TO SUPPORT FOOD SECURITY?

SOME COMMENTS Food Security Futures: Research Priorities for the 21st CenturyDublin, 11-12 April 2013

Dale AndrewHead, Environment DivisionOECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 2

Overview of comments

• Report’s announced priorities– Increasing resilience– Making transition happen– Developing Indicators– Policy coherence

• Other recent policy documents : – Foresight (UK); CCAFS; G20 (Mexican Presidency); UNEP ;

OECD, etc.

• What is missing?– Water – Biofuels– Collaboration– Relative roles of mitigation and adaptation– Time and Setting priorities


Increasing Resilience


Risk Management: results of an OECD modelling exercise

• The impact of climate change on the variability of yields is not only subject to location differences, but also to strong uncertainties.

• Public support to measures that protect farmers from production risks affect their risk management and adaptation strategies, most likely by crowding out.

• The most reliable scenarios show that climate change only marginally changes the risk environment of farming in Canada & Australia and only marginally increases the demand for insurance.

• These scenarios of extreme events and misaligned perceptions of risk lead to low adaptation and are very expensive if the policy mix is wrong.


Risk Management has prominent visibility, and…

• The report’s treatment of risk management issues, while rigorous & appropriate, could go even further:

– more on the issue of uncertainty. Climate change is more likely to increase uncertainty than risk

– Strengthening the link between risk management and institutional issues is important

– To reduce uncertainty improve the governance of science and the links between scientists and stakeholders who are users of scientific knowledge, including farmers and policy makers.

– Crucial role of information: climate change is an information barrier

– Without good symmetric information risk management markets cannot develop

– misalignment of risk perceptions due to bad information can induce unsustainable decisions on the farm, or regrettable policy decisions, in areas such as support to insurance.


Making transitions happen

• Diversification– “…little systematic information exists to

guide farmers … on how to best manage diversification…”

• What about the new “CSA Source Book?

• No-regrets technologies • Collective action• Information systems • Land tenure (adding water rights)

Adjudicated under the Land Adjudication Act CAP 284 1968, intensive smallholder cultivation with clear freehold title

Tenure effects on land productivity and investment

Unadjudicated land: no firm legal title

Norton-Griffith, in preparation


Monitoring and evaluation: developing indicators … for what?

Needs more focus• MRV – measuring GHG emissions cf.

FAO• Indicators on Process; Outcome ;

Impact• For priority setting?

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate

9

Green Growth Knowledge Platform:GGGI, OECD, UNEP, World Bank

Moving towards a common approach on GG Indicators

Agriculture

Forestry

Environment

Best way to achieve?

Productivity/IncomeSequestration/MitigationReduced emissionsResilience/Adaptation

CSAREDD+

PES

Policy Coherence

climate smart agriculture

unsustainable agriculture

http://www.barcodesinc.com/generator/image.php?code=unsustainable%20agriculture&style=197&type=C128B&width=200&height=50&xres=1&font=3


Other recent policy documents:Foresight (UK)


Comparing recent policy documents:UNEP: Avoiding Future Famines


Comparing recent policy documentsCCAFS Achieving food security in the face of climate change

Key Recommendations:1. Integrate food security and sustainable agriculture into global and national policies2. Significantly raise the level of global investment in sustainable agriculture and food systems in the next decade3. Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other negative environmental impacts of agriculture4. Target populations and sectors that are most vulnerable to climate change and food insecurity5. Reshape food access and consumption patterns to ensure basic nutritional needs are met and to foster healthy and sustainable eating habits worldwide6. Reduce loss and waste in food systems, particularly from infrastructure, farming practices, processing, distribution and household habits7. Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information systems that encompass human and ecological dimensions


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Comparing recent policy documentsG-20: IO report to Mexican Presidency 2012


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Recent policy documents (OECD)Global Food Security Challenges(2013)

The challenge of ensuring global food security is first and foremost one of raising the incomes of the poor so that they can afford the food they need to lead healthy lives. Agricultural development has a key role to play in raising incomes, but it is essential to foster wider economic growth that creates diversified rural economies with jobs both within and outside agriculture.

Large increases in investment will be needed to raise incomes and increase the supply of food sustainably. Most of the investment will need to come from the private sector, but governments have an important role in establishing the framework conditions. Public investment supported by development aid can complement and attract private investment


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Recent policy documents (OECD)Global Food Security Challenges(2013)

Priority areas for public spending include education and skills, research and innovation, and rural infrastructure, together with backstopping to ensure improved nutrition.

Trade will have an increasingly important role to play in ensuring global food security. Countries need to avoid policies that distort world markets and make them a less reliable source of food supplies.

Supply-side investments may be needed to maximise the benefits of trade reform, along with complementary measures to minimise the costs. The latter include social protection, adjustment assistance and the development of risk management tools.


What’s missing: water

• Report notes: “In situations with decreasing rainfall and increasing rainfall variability, there are many ways of improving water harvesting and retention (through the use of pools, dams, pits, retaining ridges, increasing soil organic matter to heighten the water retention capacity of soils)) and water-use efficiency (irrigation systems)”


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Figure 1. The agricultural production cycle, as impacted by climate change

Source: FAO (2010), "Climate change, water and food security", FAO water reports n°36.


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What’s missing: water

Some analysts consider the rising demand for water from non-ag sectors will dwarf the probable effects of climate change. More recent literature is less sanguine, projecting competition for surface and groundwater from agriculture leading to price increases and impacts on food security.

Do the authors belong to the first school, as implied by the relative negligence of water issues in their list of research priorities?

2000 2050World

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

electricity

manufacturing

livestock

domestic

irrigation

Km

3

21 Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE

WATER: Global water demand to increase by 55% by 2050

Rapidly growing water demand from cities, industry and

energy suppliers will challenge water for irrigation to 2050.

Global water demand: Baseline scenario

OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output : IMAGE

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Environmental Outlook to 2050: WaterGlobal water demand: Baseline scenario, 2000 and 2050

2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050World OECD BRIICS RoW

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

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5 000

6 000 irrigation domestic livestock manufacturing electricity

Km

3

+400%

+130%

+140%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

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4500

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

km3/y

ear

Global irrigation water withdrawalsShiklomanov, 2003

2030WRG, 2009

FAO-Bruinsma, 2009

IIASA-Fischer, 2008, without CC

IIASA-Fischer, 2008, with CC

Alcamo, 2007, A2

PBL-OCDE, 2011 BAU

Shen, 2008, A1b

Shen, 2008, A2

Shen, 2008, B1

Shen, 2008, B2

IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Rainf.Opt

IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Rainf.Pess

IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Irrigated Area

IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Irrigated Yields

IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Trade

IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, ComprAssessment

IFPRI-Rosegrant, 2002, Irr.Consumption,BAUIFPRI-Rosegrant, 2002, Irr.Consumption,CrisisIFPRI-Rosegrant, 2002, Irr.Consumption,Sust.


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What’s missing: biofuels

• More research is needed on:– Historical variability surrounding biofuel-crop yields, and

likely future variability, especially with climate change– Status of arable lands registered as degraded or

abandoned, and how they are actually being used– Relative costs of producing crops like Jatropha curcas

(physic nut) on different categories of marginal or degraded land

– Likely areas in sub-Saharan Africa at risk for development of crops for biofuels under different assumptions of cost and legal access

– Likely demand on arable lands of policies that encourage biofuels made from non-edible biomass

– Feasibility of the ideas propounded by enthusiasts of bio-char

Cereals

Cereals

Cereals

Oilseeds

Oilseeds

Oilseeds

Sugar C

rops

Sugar C

rops

Sugar C

rops

PalmPalm

Palm

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0.0120254610806694 0.01438397868721820.00808454269513952

0.01764426533394931.6% 2.0%

0.5%

3.1%

0.8%0.9% 3.8%

2.6%

0.0124785933034610.00593501731680247

-0.000854366805447371

Annual crop-yield improvements needed 2006-20 to provide food, with and without biofuels (E4Tech Scenario: 10.3% of world transport fuel) assuming no land-use change compared with 1996-2006 trend & FAPRI

projections

1996-2006 Trend Non Biofuel food demandBiofuel, adjusted for by products FAPRI 2006-2019 Projection

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What’s missing: collaboration

• Where is the World Bank? – Despite having adopted whole heartedly

“climate smart agriculture” and a key financier of the CG system, the WB is absent in the report.

– Reference is made to WB insofar as “FAO and the World Bank developed a method for screening agricultural investment plans to identify climate smart agricultural investments”

• And other MDBs?


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What’s missing: relative role of adaptation and mitigation

Agriculture-related emissions could be 15 gigatons in 2050

Sources: Food increases from Bruinsma 2009 (FAO); Various sources other


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What’s missing: relative roles of adaptation and mitigation

1. Assessing vulnerability to climate change today

2. Assessing vulnerability tomorrowPlausible scenarios of the future

3. AdaptationOptions to address food security challenges from climate change

4. MitigationOptions to reduce GHG concentrations while supporting sustainable food security and poverty reduction

5. The need for coordination and coherence of food security and climate change policies and actions

HLPE Report: Mitigation options that also enhance food security

• Direct– Farming practices that increase soil

carbon in degraded soils– Fertilizer management that reduces

fertilizer application by increasing plant uptake

– Livestock and manure management that reduce GHG emissions and lower farmer cost per unit of output

– Water management that saves water and reduces GHG emissions

– Crop residue management that increases soil health and reduces GHG emissions

• Indirect– Manage food consumption for lower

emissions and more efficient food systems

– Reduce emissions from land use change for agriculture by increasing agricultural productivity

Context A Context B Most vulnerable and food insecure

areas

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CSA approaches must be context sensitive…


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What’s missing: Time

• Report’s opening sentence: – “In this paper we focus on the issue of

how climate change affects the way the agricultural systems and the people that manage and govern the need to change in the next 20 years to order to achieve food security, and how FAO and CGIAR can support that change.”

Transformation in agricultureAndy Jarvis, CCAFS, Accelerating Adaptation

Incremental, Systems & Transformational adaptation

• Incremental adaptation: Farmers are adapting all the time; is it at a rate that is fast enough? Are the incremental adjustments in the right direction to enable the systematic adjustment

• Systems adaptation supports incremental adaptation and also ensures that the direction farmers take is along the correct trajectory; involves design of suitable policies; Incentivizing the changes that are needed; and overcoming technological constraints

• Transformational adaptation : Different livelihood systems for rural communities; different structural make-up of the agricultural and food system at national and regional scales; Crucial to plan for transformational change, and not wait until it happens– Andy Jarvis, CCAFS, Accelerating Adaptation, Hanoi Sep 2012


What’s missing: methodologies for setting priorities

From listing adaptation options, need for investment portfolios, with robust numbers on costs, benefits and constraints

• MAC curves for agriculture?• Counting “wins””?

– win-win-(win (-win))s vs. trade-offs

• Prioritise by indicators of vulnerability?

Malawi: Building the evidence base on marginal costs of agricultural-based mitigation

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0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

$/t C

O2e

t CO2e abated/year

1. agronomy_dry

2. Integrated nutrient management _dry

3. Tillage/residue mgmt_dry

4. Integrated nutrient management_moist

5. Tillage/residue mgmt_moist

6. agronomy_moist

7. agroforestry_dry

8. agroforestry_moist

9. water mgmt_dry

10. water mgmt_moist

Winning, Losing or Standing Still? Tony Simons, ICRAF

Climate Smart Agriculture seeks to:

- Increase productivity/income (P&I)

- Increase Carbon sequestration (Seq)

- Reduce agriculture GHG emissions (REm)

- Strengthen farmers’ resilience/adaptation (Adp)

win-win-win-win? or tradeoffs?

Win Lose

Four Wins P&I/Seq/REm/Adp

Three Wins P&I/Seq/REm Adp

P&I/Seq/Adp REm

P&I/REm/Adp Seq

Seq/REm/Adp P&I

Two wins P&I/Seq REm/Adp

P&I/REm Seq/Adp

P&I/Adp Seq/REm

Seq/REm P&I/Adp

Seq/Adp P&I/REm

REm/Adp P&I/Seq

One win P&I Seq/REm/Adp

Seq P&I/REm/Adp

REm P&I/Seq/Adp

Adp P&I/Seq/REm

No wins P&I/Seq/REm/Adp

IAASTD

Zero grazing of ruminants

Rubber plantationin Amazon

Fertilised maize on poor soils

√√√

√

???

X

XXX


Vulnerability ?

• CCAFS-Target populations and sectors that

are most vulnerable to climate change and food insecurity

HLPE: 1. Assessing vulnerability to climate

change today2. Assessing vulnerability tomorrow

Thank You

For more information:[email protected]

click on “Sustainable Agriculture”Visit our website: www.oecd.org/agriculture

priorities for public sector research on food security and climate change, review 1 by dale andrew,...

Technology

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agriculture directorate5

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