Annual Meeting

December 11‐13, 2016

Scottsdale, AZ

 The International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium  gratefully acknowledges the continuing support of Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada, the USDA Economic Research Service, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, and the USDA Office of the Chief Economist.  Additional support for this meeting was provided by the Andersons Program in International Trade, Ohio State University. 

  

Program Agenda Theme Day Topic:

Climate Change and International Agricultural Trade  

in the Aftermath of COP21

International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium Annual Meeting, December 11 - 13, 2016

The IATRC extends heartfelt appreciation to Tom Hertel (Purdue University) and Alan Matthews

(Trinity College Dublin) for their time and effort as Theme Day Organizers. Thank you also to Jonathan Coleman, U.S. International Trade Commission, who served as Executive Committee

Liaison and Non-Theme Day Organizer, and to Missy Sullivan, IATRC Administrative Director from the University of Minnesota, for arranging and managing meeting details.

For information about future IATRC meetings or IATRC publications, visit the web site:

<www.iatrc.org>

Internet Access in the Meeting Rooms Router: Meeting room you are in

Password: phxsj5401

Business Center The Business Center provides printing, photocopying and other services.

The Business Center is located inside the lobby and is open 24 hours.

7:30‐8:30

8:00‐8:45

8:45‐9:00Rick Barichello (University of British Columbia)Andrew Muhammad (USDA Economic Research Service) Tom Hertel (Purdue University)

9:00‐10:15Solomon Hsiang (University of California ‐ Berkeley)

10:15‐10:45

10:45‐12:00

Frances Moore (University of California ‐ Davis)Discussant:  Jerry Nelson (University of Illinois)

12:00 ‐ 1:15

1:15‐2:30Petr Havlik (IIASA)

2:30‐2:45

2:45‐4:00Thomas Rutherford (University of Wisconsin‐Madison)

4:00‐4:15

4:15‐4:30 Synthesis and Implications for Climate Policy in the Wake of COP21Alan Matthews (Trinity College Dublin)

4:30‐5:30

Solomon Hsiang (University of California‐Berkeley)Frances Moore (University of California‐Davis)Petr Havlik (IIASA)Thomas Rutherford (University of Wisconsin‐Madison)

7:00‐7:30  Cocktails (Palm Patio)7:30‐9:30 Dinner (Rattlers)

Discussant:  Nelson Villoria (Kansas State University)

Break (Grand Ballroom Foyer)

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Understanding Global Effects on Yield and Welfare

Lunch (Center Ballroom)

Climate Mitigation, Global Agriculture and Food Security

Discussant:  Thomas Heckelei (University of Bonn)

Break

Understanding the Interplay Between Carbon‐Based Border Taxes and Global Mitigation 

Discussant:  Ian Sheldon (The Ohio State University)

Panel Discussion with the PresentersChair: Tom Hertel (Purdue University)

Break

Sunday, December 11, 2016 ‐ Theme Day

Climate Change and International Agricultural Trade in the Aftermath of COP21

Breakfast (Center Ballroom)

Pick Up Nametags and Programs (Grand Ballroom Foyer)

Welcome and Introduction (South Ballroom)

Global Trade and Risk Sharing in a Spatially Correlated Climate

1

7:00‐8:00

8:00‐10:00

Session 01

Rio Verde

Room 1) China and India Biofuel Policy, Food versus Fuel

Jayson Beckman (USDA, Economic Research Service)

2) Just Passing Through: RIN Prices and the Potential for Future E85 Expansion

Jarrett Whistance and Wyatt Thompson (University of Missouri)

3)The Renewable Fuel Standard: Market and Welfare Effects of Alternative Policy Scenarios

GianCarlo Moschini, Harvey Lapan, and Hyunseok Kim (Iowa State University)

Session 02

SonoraRoom 1) US WTO Complaint on China’s Domestic Support: Preliminary Observations

Lars Brink (Independent Advisor) and David Orden (Virginia Tech)2) The Local Impacts of Agricultural Subsidies: Evidence from the Canadian Prairies

Ray Bollman (University of Saskatchewan) and Shon Ferguson (Research Institute of 

Industrial Economics, Stockholm)3) The Joint Effect of Trade Negotiations: What Policy Lessons to Take?

Dillen K., Ferrari E., Boulanger P., Dudu H., Himics M., M'Barek R.,  and D'Avino A. 

(European Commission)4) Does Trade Reduce Income Inequality in SSA? A Note

Kolawole Ogundari (University of Delaware) and Titus Awokuse (Michigan State 

University)

Session 03(8:00‐9:00)South 

Ballroom

1) Potential Economic Effects of the Reduction in Agricultural and Nonagricultural Trade 

Barriers in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Caesar Cororaton and David Orden (Virginia Tech)

2)Beef Market Integration and Price Transmission in the Trans‐Pacific Partnership CountriesJongyeol Yoon and Scott Brown (University of Missouri)

3) The Impact of TRQs on Korean Rice Market Byung Min Soon, Patrick Westhoff, and Wyatt Thompson (University of Missouri)

(9:00‐10:00)

1) Agricultural Policy and Trade in Central Asia and the South Caucasus in the Context of 

WTO RulesLars Brink (Independent Advisor)

2) A Survey of Progress and Pitfalls with the Eurasian Economic UnionWilliam Meyers and Kateryna Schroeder (University of Missouri)

10:00‐10:30

Monday, December 12, 2016

Breakfast (Center Ballroom)

CONCURRENT SESSIONS  01, 02, and 03

Trade Effects of Biofuel Polcies

Moderator: Rick Barichello (University of British Columbia)

Trade Effects of Regional Trade AgreementModerator:  Danny Pick (USDA, Economic Research Service)

Agricultural Trade and Policy Along the Silk Road: Roles of Multilateral and Regional 

Agreements

Trade Modeling and PolicyModerator: Thomas Heckelei (University of Bonn)

Organizer:  William Meyers (University of Missouri)Moderator: Troy Schmitz (Arizona State University)

Break (Grand Ballroom Foyer)

Discussants: Jonathan Brooks (OECD) and Joe Glauber (IFPRI)

10:30‐12:30

Session 04SouthBallroom 1) LAO – Long‐term Agricultural Outlook Model

Marcel Adenäuer, Jonathan Brooks (OECD), and John Saunders (Lincoln University, New 

Zealand)

2) A System Dynamics Approach to Trade Analysis Modeling Global Dairy Trade

Brad Gehrke, John Fry, and Jonathan Coleman (U.S. International Trade Commission)3) U.S. Imports and the Rise of Chained Specialist Coffee Shops

Andrew Muhammad (USDA, Economic Research Service), Norbert Wilson (Auburn 

University), and Amanda (Leister) Countryman (Colorado State University)4) A Gravity Model of Blue Virtual Water Trade

Rui Chen and Norbert Wilson (Auburn University)

Session 05

1) Canadian Perspective: Frédéric Seppey (Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada)

2) EU Perspective: Koen Dillen (DG AGRI, European Commission)3) United States Perspective: Sharon Sydow (USDA, Office of the Chief Economist)

Session 06SonoraRoom 1) Necessary Problems: The Political Will and Public Will Approach and Climate‐Smart 

Agriculture in Sub‐Saharan AfricaEric D. Raile, Linda Young (Montana State University), Samba Mbaye (Gaston Berger 

University, Senegal), Jackline Bonabana‐Wabbi, Julian Kirinya (Makerere University, 

Uganda), Lena Wooldridge,  Amber Raile (Montana State University), and Lori Ann Post 

(Yale University)

2) Climate Change and the U.S Livestock Market Elham Darbandi (University of Kentucky)

3) Global Potential for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Ruminant Livestock SectorsHenderson, B. (CSIRO, Australia), Golub, A. (Purdue University), Pambudi, D. (Wellington, 

New Zealand), Hertel, T. (Purdue University), Godde, C. (CSIRO, Australia), Herrero, M. 

(CSIRO, Australia), Cacho, O. (University of New England, Australia), Steinfeld, H. (FAO), 

and Gerber, P. (World Bank)

12:30‐1:30 Lunch and Presentation

Center Current challenges in trade policy making ‐ is economic research relevant?

Ballroom Frédéric Seppey (Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada)

1:30‐2:00 Post‐Lunch Break

2:00‐3:30

3:30‐4:00

4:00‐5:30 DISSERTATION REPORT and FREE‐FORM DISCUSSION  ‐  SESSION 07

Session 07

CONCURRENT SESSIONS  04, 05 and 06

Empirical Modeling of Input and Product MarketsModerator: Karl Meilke (University of Guelph)

Role of Research in Agricultural Trade Negotiations ‐ CANCELLED

Organizers:  Sharon Sydow (USDA, Office of the Chief Economist), Wyatt Thompson 

(University of Missouri), Jonathan Coleman (U.S. International Trade Commission)

Moderator:  Lars Brink (Independent Advisor)

Climate Change and TradeModerator: Titus Awokuse (Michigan State University)

IATRC Members' Business Meeting (South Ballroom)

Moderator: David Orden (Virginia Tech)

Break (Grand Ballroom Foyer)

South 1) Dissertation Report:  The Trans‐Pacific Partnership and Japan's Agricultural Trade

Ballroom Manhong Zhu; Supervisor: Andrew Schmitz (University of Florida)

2)

Lars Brink (Independent Advisor), David Orden (Virginia Tech), Rick Barichello (University 

of British Columbia), and Titus Awokuse (Michigan State University)

7:00‐8:00

8:00‐10:00

Session 08

Rio Verde 

Room

1) Beef Market Analysis in the Wake of BSESharon Sydow (USDA, Office of the Chief Economist)

2) Econometric Import Demand Specification and Results Xin Ning and Jason Grant (Virginia Tech)

3) Dynamic GTAP Back‐Casting Experiment Setup and ResultsEverett Peterson and Jason Grant (Virginia Tech)

Session 09

South Organizer and Moderator: Renee Berry (U.S. International Trade Commission)Ballroom 1) Expected Macroeconomic Effects of a “Hard” Brexit

Ian Sheldon (Ohio State University)2) Trade Policy Implications of Brexit 

Tim Josling (Stanford University)3) Brexit Impacts on Agricultural Production Patterns and Trade Flows

Thomas Heckelei (University of Bonn)4) Agricultural Policy Post‐Brexit:  UK and EU Perspectives

Alan Matthews (Trinity College, Dublin)5) Prospects for U.K. Fisheries Post‐Common Fisheries Policy

Renee Berry (U.S. International Trade Commission)

10:00‐10:30

10:30‐12:30

Session 10

Rio VerdeRoom 1) Export Spillover and Location Choice

Chang Hong and Haoyu Wu (Clarke University)

2)

Exports and Establishment‐Level Performance in Canadian Food and Beverage 

ManufacturingBruce Phillips (Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada)

3) Chinese Firms in Agricultural Trade: Introducing a New DatasetChaoping Xie and Jason Grant (Virginia Tech)

Organizers: Jason Grant, Everett Peterson, David Orden (Virginia Tech), Sharon Sydow 

(USDA, Office of the Chief Economist)Moderator and discussant: David Orden (Virginia Tech)

International Affairs, Agriculture, and Article 50: Brexit’s Effects on the UK, the EU, and the 

World

Dimensions of Exports, Location, and DataModerator: Andrew Muhammad (USDA, Economic Research Service) 

CONCURRENT SESSIONS 10, 11 and 12 

Breakfast (Center Ballroom)

CONCURRENT SESSION 08 and 09

Break (Grand Ballroom Foyer)

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) and Global Beef Trade: A 12‐Year Retrospective 

Assessment

Free‐Form Discussion:  How Best to Organize an IATRC Theme Day on Corruption and 

Agricultural Trade Research? 

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

4) Evolution of the Competitiveness in Korean Food Industry Using New Revealed 

Comparative Advantage (New‐RCA) Index Ji‐Yoon Bae and Hanho Kim (Seoul National University, Korea)

Session 11SonoraRoom 1) ASEAN Bilateral Seafood Trade Duration Analysis 

Ping Wang, Norbert Wilson (Auburn University),  and Nhuong Tran (WorldFish Center 

Penang, Malaysia)2) The Impact of Transportation Costs on International Trade of Agricultural Commodities: 

The Alchian‐Allen Theorem in an n‐Good WorldDragan Miljkovic (North Dakota State University) and Miguel Gomez (Cornell University)

3) Non‐reciprocal Trade Agreements and their Impacts on Value Added Exports

Anupa Sharma (North Dakota State University)4) New Evidence for Demand Behavior Facing MRL Regulatory Heterogeneity in 

International TradeHeloisa Lee Burnquist, Rafael Lopes Jacomini (University of Sao Paulo), and Cinthia 

Cabral da Costa (Embrapa, Brazil) 

Session 12SouthBallroom 1) Trade Liberalization and Endogenous Quality Choice in Food and Agricultural Trade

Jihyun Eum and Ian Sheldon (Ohio State University)

2) Quality and Export Performance: Evidence from the French Cheese IndustrySabine Duvaleix‐Treguer (Agrocampus, France), Charlotte Emlinger (CEPII, France), Carl 

Gaigné (INRA, France), and Karine Latouche  (INRA, France)

3)Productivity Shocks, International Trade and Import Prices: Evidence from AgricultureShon Ferguson (Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm) and Johan Gars 

(Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences)

4) Exporting Ecolabels: Is Demand for Certified Sustainable Products Affecting International 

Trade?Renee Berry and Marin Weaver (U.S. International Trade Commission)

12:30‐1:30

1:30 Adjourn

Aspects of Quality and Labeling in TradeModerator: Charlotte Emlinger (CEPII, France)

Moderator:  Heloisa Lee Burnquist (University of São Paulo)Analytical Dimensions of Trade

Lunch (Center Ballroom)

Name Email Address Affiliation Country

1 Adenäuer, Marcel marcel.adenauer@oecd.org OECD France

2 Awokuse, Titus awokuset@msu.edu Michigan State University United States

3 Barichello, Richard richard.barichello@ubc.ca University of British Columbia Canada

4 Beckman, Jayson jbeckman@ers.usda.gov USDA‐Economic Research Service United States

5 Beghin, John beghin@iastate.edu Iowa State University United States

6 Berry, Renee renee.berry@usitc.gov U.S. International Trade Commission United States

7 Boys, Kathryn kaboys@ncsu.edu North Carolina State University United States

8 Brink, Lars lars.brink@hotmail.com Independent Consultant Canada

9 Brooks, Jonathan jonathan.brooks@oecd.org OECD France

10 Bullock, David dsbulloc@illinois.edu University of Illinois United States

11 Burnquist, Heloisa hlburnqu@usp.br University of Sao Paulo Brazil

12 Chen, Rui rzc0021@auburn.edu Auburn University United States

13 Coleman, Jonathan jonathan.coleman@usitc.gov U.S. International Trade Commission United States

14 Countryman, Amanda (Leister) amanda.leister@colostate.edu Colorado State University United States

15 Darbandi, Elham Elham.Darbandi@uky.edu University of Kentucky United States

16 Emlinger, Charlotte charlotte.emlinger@cepii.fr CEPII France

17 Eum, Jihyun eum.9@osu.edu Ohio State University United States

18 Ferguson, Shon shon.ferguson@ifn.se Research Institute of Industrial Economics Sweden

19 Gehrke, Brad brad.gehrke@usitc.gov U.S. International Trade Commission United States

20 Golub, Alla golub@purdue.edu Purdue University United States

21 Grant, Jason jhgrant@vt.edu Virginia Tech United States

22 Havlik, Petr havlikpt@iiasa.ac.at IIASA Austria

23 Heckelei, Thomas thomas.heckelei@ilr.uni‐bonn.de University of Bonn Germany

24 Hertel, Thomas hertel@purdue.edu Purdue University United States

25 Hochsprung, Charli cbhochsprung@gmail.com Washington State University United States

26 Hong, Chang chang.hong@ers.usda.gov USDA‐Economic Research Service United States

27 Hsiang, Solomon shsiang@berkeley.edu University of California ‐ Berkeley United States

28 Josling, Tim josling@stanford.edu Stanford University United States

29 Kim, Hanho hanho@snu.ac.kr Seoul National University Rep of Korea

30 Klein, Kurt klein@uleth.ca University of Lethbridge Canada

31 Matthews, Alan alan.matthews@tcd.ie Trinity College Dublin Ireland

32 Meilke, Karl kmeilke@uoguelph.ca University of Guelph Canada

33 Meyers, William meyersw@missouri.edu University of Missouri United States

34 Miljkovic, Dragan dragan.miljkovic@ndsu.edu North Dakota State University United States

35 Mondelaers, Koen koen.mondelaers@ec.europa.eu European Commission Belgium

36 Moore, Frances fmoore@ucdavis.edu University of California‐Davis United States

37 Moschini, GianCarlo moschini@iastate.edu Iowa State University United States

38 Muhammad, Andrew amuhammad@ers.usda.gov USDA‐Economic Research Service United States

39 Neff, Steve steve.neff@fas.usda.gov USDA Foreign Agricultural Service United States

40 Nelson, Gerald gnelson@illinois.edu University of Illinois United States

41 Orden, David orden@vt.edu Virginia Tech United States

42 Peterson, Everett petrsone@vt.edu Virginia Tech United States

43 Phillips, Bruce bruce.phillips@agr.gc.ca Agriculture and Agri‐food Canada Canada

44 Pick, Daniel dpick@ers.usda.gov USDA‐Economic Research Service United States

45 Rutherford, Thomas rutherford@aae.wisc.edu University of Wisconsin‐Madison United States

46 Salvati, Ilara ilaria.salvati@uniroma3.it Roma Tre University Italy

47 Saunders, John john.saunders@lincoln.ac.nz Lincoln University New Zealand

48 Schmitz, Andrew aschmitz@ufl.edu University of Florida United States

49 Schmitz, Troy troy.schmitz@asu.edu Arizona State University United States

50 Seppey, Frédéric Frederic.Seppey@agr.gc.ca Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada Canada

PARTICIPANT LIST, IATRC MEETING, DECEMBER 2016

51 Sharma, Anupa anupa.iaas@gmail.com North Dakota State University United States

52 Sheldon, Ian sheldon.1@osu.edu Ohio State University United States

53 Soon, Byung Min bsp5f@mail.missouri.edu University of Missouri United States

54 Sullivan, Melissa missy@umn.edu University of Minnesota United States

55 Sydow, Sharon ssydow@oce.usda.gov USDA/Office of Chief Economist United States

56 Thompson, Wyatt jacksonla@missouri.edu University of Missouri United States

57 Vaughan, Odette odette.vaughan@agr.gc.ca Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada Canada

58 Villoria, Nelson nvilloria@k‐state.edu Kansas State University United States

59 Wang, Ping pzw0013@auburn.edu Auburn University United States

60 Weaver, Marin marin.weaver@usitc.gov U.S. International Trade Commission United States

61 Wensley, Mitch mitch.wensley@agr.gc.ca Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada Canada

62 Whistance, Jarrett whistancejl@missouri.edu University of Missouri United States

63 Xie, Chaoping xiecp@vt.edu USDA Foreign Agricultural Service United States

64 Yoon, Jongyeol jyyoon0712@gmail.com University of Missouri United States

65 Young, Linda lmyoung@montana.edu Montana State University United States

66 Zhu, Manhong zhumanhong@ufl.edu University of Florida United States

PARTICIPANT LIST, IATRC MEETING, DECEMBER 2016  (Continued)

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IATRC 2017 Executive Committee

Rick Barichello, Non-U.S. Universities & Other Institutions Representative 2015-2017 Rob Johansson / Sharon Sydow, USDA Office of the Chief Economist Representative

Dragan Miljkovic, U.S. Universities Representative, 2017-2019 Andrew Muhammad, USDA Economic Research Service Representative

Steve Neff, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Representative Wyatt Thompson, U.S. Universities Representative 2016-2018

Mitch Wensley / Odette Vaughan, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Representative

IATRC Administrative Director

Melissa Sullivan, University of Minnesota

Thank you to outgoing Executive Committee member, John Beghin, for serving on the IATRC Executive Committee and for his service to the IATRC Membership.

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