prince george’s county office of the county executive
TRANSCRIPT
Prince George’s County Office of the County Executive David S. Iannucci, Assistant Deputy Chief Administrative Officer
Brad Frome, Assistant Deputy Chief Administrative Officer
Prince George’s County Economic Development CorporationLarry Hentz, Director of Business Development
Prince George’s County Department of Housing and Community Development Eric C. Brown, Director
Prince George’s County Redevelopment AuthorityStephen J. Paul, Associate Director
Prince George’s County CouncilThe Honorable Dannielle M. Glaros, Councilmember (District 3)
Jackie W. Brown, Committee Director, Planning, Zoning and Economic Development (PZED) Committee
Prince George's County, Maryland Conference & Visitors Bureau, Inc.J. Matthew Neitzey, CAE, CDME, CEcD, Executive Director
Prince George’s County Planning DepartmentJacqueline Philson, Master Planner, Project Manager/Facilitator
Derick Berlage, Chief, Countywide Planning DivisionIvy A. Lewis, Chief, Community Planning
Vanessa C. Akins, Chief, Strategy and ImplementationTed Kowaluk, Planner Coordinator
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About the RCLCO team
3
RCLCO is a land use economics
firm delivering real estate
strategies, market intelligence,
and implementation assistance.
Practice Groups
Public Strategies
Community Development
Urban Development
Management Consulting
Institutional Advisory
Offices
Washington, DC
Los Angeles
Austin
Orlando
Agenda
Project Overview
Countywide Retail Market Analysis
Countywide Retail Opportunity Analysis
High-End/Luxury Retail Consumer
Marketability Analysis
Focus: Southwest and Southeast Trade Areas
Questions
4
COUNTYWIDE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
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Surveyed Qualitative and Quantitative Factors for
241 Shopping Centers & 10 Main Streets
tenant quality
building vacancy
surrounding land uses
46.5%
36.1%
9.5%
4.1%
1.2%
0.4%
2.1%
Strip/Convenience
Neighborhood
Community
Power
Lifestyle
Outlet
Regional/Super-Regional
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%
Shopping Centers by Type
116
31 33
59
2
NorthMarket
CentralInside 495
Market
CentralOutside 495
Market
SouthwestMarket
SoutheastMarket
Shopping Centers by Trade Area
6
Power Center
Tenant
Strip Center
Tenant
In-Line
Tenant
Discount Stores
Replace
Department
Stores
Fitness Center In
Anchor Space
Strip Tenants In
Community
Center Space
47
69
117
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
A B C F/Defunct
Nu
mb
er
of
Sh
op
pin
g C
en
ters
Rating of Center Quality
County Shopping Center Distribution by Center Rating
County has potential to capture additional $1.4 billion retail sales annually
Retail sales = $7.2 billion
Retail demand = $8.6 billion
Spending gap = $1.4 billion annually that the County could capture
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$7,222,066,667
$8,594,982,688
$6,500,000,000
$7,000,000,000
$7,500,000,000
$8,000,000,000
$8,500,000,000
$9,000,000,000
Total Retail Sales Generated incl. Estimated Grocery Total Retail Demand
Sales and Demand
Gap = $1.4B
LEAKAGE SURROUNDING THE
PRINCE GEORGE’S COUNTY RETAIL MARKET
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THE COUNTY HAD DEMAND FOR 22.2 MILLION
SQUARE FEET OF RETAIL SPACE IN 2014
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By 2020: Demand will support 24.1 million square feet
By 2025: Demand will support 25.6 million square feet
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Support
able
Square
Foota
ge
Current 2014 Supportable by 2020 Supportable by 2025
163
122154
185178
405
113
230
191
74
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
2014 Demand 2020 Additional Demand
Retail Supply-Demand
Within Trade Areas
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NorthCentral
OutsideSouthwest
Central
Inside
South
east
COUNTY HAS STRONG UNDERSERVED MIDDLE
WITHIN EXTREMELY AFFLUENT REGION
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11%
3%
22%
33%
9%
27%
21%
8%
20%
21%
25%
19%
22%
31%
27%
32%
32%
33%13%
11%
14%
8%
9%
12%
11%
13%
6%
5%
13%
2%
4%
9%
2%
1%
7%
4%10%
22%
7%
1%
7%3%
Washington-Baltimore Region
Prince George'sCounty
Montgomery County Howard County Anne Arundel County Fairfax County
First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh
Prince George’s
top 30-40% of
consumers likely
underserved by
available retail in
County
Region and nearby
counties have 30-
40% of consumers
in top spending
tiers; County only
has 11%
1st ($145,649)
2nd ($100,269)
3rd ($80,740)
4th ($59,134)
5th ($53,514)
6th ($42,114)
7th ($36,240)
Consumer Segment Tier (Median Income)
WHAT IS HIGH END/LUXURY RETAIL?
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Luxury
High-quality, high-status products sold at full retail price. Exclusive products not available at other stores that convey prestige based on brand name. Limited in distribution to 400 or fewer retail outlets in the US.
Traditional Examples: Tiffany’s, Prada, Barney’s
Customer: Age 25-45, Single, Net worth $500k+, Income $150k+
The New Luxury
Unique ─ No Longer about the Brand Name. “Functional Luxury,” Quality, Authenticity, Craftsmanship.
Customer: “HENRY” ─ High earner not rich yet, Income $100-250k, Increasingly Millennials
Examples: Apple, Whole Foods, Sleep Number, Rent the Runway, Uber
ACHIEVABLE LUXURY RETAIL
FOR PRINCE GEORGE’S COUNTY
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No Hard and True Definitions
Across All Retail Categories
Fashion Examples
Luxury Luxury/Designer: Gucci, Prada, Versace, Barney’s
High-End/Upscale Bridge: Ellen Tracy, DKNY Better: Anne Klein, Jones New York, Armani
Moderate Contemporary: BCBG, J. Crew, Rebecca Taylor Moderate: Gap, Nine West, Land’s End, Zara
Low End Discount/Off-Price: TJ Maxx, Nordstrom Rack Budget/Mass Market: Target, Old Navy, Forever 21
County has
this level
of retailer
Could
County get
more of
these?
Likely Out
of Reach in
Near Term
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Retailer
Population
Radius
(Miles) Income
Income
Metric
Other Criteria
(Cotenants, Traffic, Psychographics)
Apparel
Saks Off 5th 400,000 N/A $85,000 Average
Loft/Chico's/White House
Black Market
150,000 5 $75,000 Average
J. Crew 200,000 10 $75,000 Average
South Moon Under N/A N/A $100,000 N/A Cotenants: lululemon, Blue Mercury, Banana Republic
Bevello 200,000 N/A $75,000 Average
Sterling Jewelers 250,000 10 $75,000 Average
Services, Fitness, Entertainment
Cobb Theaters 100,000 5 $75,000 Average
LA Fitness 60,000 3 $20,000 Per Capita
Complete Nutrition 50,000 Trade Area $70,000 Average
Hand & Stone Massage Spa 100,000 5 $60,000 Average
Massage Heights 30,000 3 $80,000 Average
Lifetime Fitness N/A 5 $70,000 Median
Grocery
Wegmans 50,000 3 $85,000 Average
Publix 20,000 3 $50,000 Median
Kroger 20,000 3 $40,000 Median
Fresh Market 150,000 5 $75,000 Median
Whole Foods 200,000 5 $75,000 Median
Psychographics of "leading edge of food" in area; like sites near
large universities; 50% college educated; Home Owner (60%+
Owner Occupied Homes)
Sprouts Farmers Market 100,000 3
"above
avg."
N/A "High % white collar jobs"; 40% college educated
Trader Joe's N/A 5 $64,000 N/A
Median age of 44; 36,000 college educated in 5 mile; Home Owner
(60%+ Owner Occupied Homes)
Costco 200,000 5 $75,000 N/A
Homegoods and Outdoors Goods
Crate & Barrel N/A N/A $75,000 Average
Pier 1 Imports 150,000 5 $60,000 Median
Mattress Firm 100,000 5 $65,000 Average
Dick's Sporting Goods N/A Trade Area $70,000 Average
Cabela's 250,000 30 N/A N/A 75,000 cars per day (cpd)
Performance Bicycle 700,000 10 $75,000 Average
Restaurant -Quick Service
La Madeleine 60,000 N/A $75,000 N/A Female-oriented retail; 50,000 cpd
Pei Wei 250,000 5 $75,000 N/A
Smashburger 50,000 3 $60,000 N/A 50,000 cpd
CeFiore Italian Yogurt 45,000 1.5 $75,000 Average
Restaurants - Full Services
J. Alexanders 150,000 3 $60,000 N/A
Wolfgang Puck Pizza Bistro 200,000 N/A $80,000 N/A "Recycled funky sites such as gas stations"
World of Beer 75,000 N/A $80,000 N/A
Cheesecake Factory 25,000 5 $75,000 Average Bloomingdale's, Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus
Chuy's 50,000 5 $65,000 Average
Dickey's BBQ Pit 30,000 N/A $60,000 Average
Ted's Montana Grill 60,000 3 $100,000 N/A Urban properties
Bonefish Grill 200,000 5 $100,000 Median
Pay most attention to performance of surrounding restaurants -
demographics aren't the whole story
Sit
e S
ele
cti
on C
rite
ria f
or
Sele
cte
d R
eta
ilers
LUXURY AND “HENRY” CONSUMERS
LIVE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS TODAY
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Luxury Consumers
(Top Tier Tapestry)
“HENRY” Consumers
(Laptops and Lattes, Trendsetters, Metro Renters)
Capitol Hill, Georgetown, Shaw/U Street, Rosslyn-
Ballston, Alexandria Metro Accessible
Chevy Chase, Bethesda, Fairfax, Annapolis,
Howard County, Potomac
MARKETABILITY OF THE COUNTY
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Median Income
Education Levels
Population Density
Employment Proximity
Traffic Patterns
(Both Pedestrian and Vehicular)
Surrounding Land Uses
Co-tenants
Retailer Site Selection Criteria
An Intersection of Location and Demographics
POPULATION DENSITY
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Most retailers looking for
density of at least 50,000 in
3-mile radius
(medium and dark green).
1,000 PSM = 28,000 in 3-mile radius
2,000 PSM = 55,000 in 3-mile radius
5,000 PSM = 140,000 in 3-mile radius
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
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Most retailers looking for
MHI above $75,000
(medium and dark green).
EDUCATION LEVELS (% WITH BACHELORS+)
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Education levels cited as
more important than
income by Whole Foods,
Trader Joe’s, other
lifestyle retailers, but
cut-off less well-defined.
OFFICE EMPLOYMENT
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Marketability by Submarket
Southwest Retail Trade AreaQuantity of Retail is In Balance With The Market Size
QUANTITY OF RETAIL
In Balance with Market Size
Trade Area Is Not Over Retailed
Low Population Density/High-income Residents
Meets Current Level of Market Demand
QUALITY OF RETAIL
Varied Degrees of Quality
Access to Higher End Retail
(National Harbor, Alexandria and Charles County)
Tenant quality is expected to improve with increasing density and
household incomes
NEIGHBORHOOD/COMMUNITY RETAIL CENTERS
Local-serving Retail
Well Tenanted, Not At Risk of Failing
Strongest Performers--Grocery-anchored Centers
Grocery-anchored Centers in better physical repair than non-grocery
anchored centers
Trade area lacks larger retail centers to complement community
retail and destination retail.
DESTINATION RETAIL
Higher-End Retail Locations
National Harbor
MGM Casino
Tanger Outlets National Harbor
National
Harbor
Tanger Outlets
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Marketability by Submarket
Southeast Retail Trade AreaQuantity of Retail is In Balance With The Market Size
QUANTITY OF RETAIL
In Balance with Market Size
Retail demand/spending supports small amount of retail adequate
for the existing retail to succeed
Trade Area Is Not Over Retailed
Low Population Density/High-income Residents
Meets Current Level of Market Demand
Submarket probably could not support additional retail beyond a
neighborhood center (grocery anchored) in the near term.
Cluster of retail immediately south in Charles County also
serves the southeast and southwest trade areas.
QUALITY OF RETAIL
Existing centers in healthy condition
Power Center
Brandywine Center, is a strong performer that serves as the power
center of choice for much of the Southeast and Southwest
submarkets
This center is well tenanted. Costco, Marshall’s, Target, and
Safeway as well as smaller in-line stores provide an array of options
for residents.
Not At Risk of Failing. Should continue to perform well.
TRADE AREA OPPORTUNITIES
North Trade Area Central and South Trade Areas
(Outside Beltway)
Central and South Trade Areas
(Inside Beltway)
Consumers
Young and Urban
Moderate spending power
Concentration of office employment
Upper middle class families
Highest spending power
Mix of demographics
International/ethnic influence
Lowest spending power
Neighborhood Typology
Walkable neighborhoods
Higher-density housing
Multimodal access
Low density
Single-family suburban
neighborhoods
Well served by highways and major
road network
Older single-family
Large multifamily buildings/complexes
High proximity to multimodal options but
some areas have low walkability or
connectivity to them
Retail Opportunities
Small-scale centers near households
& transportation
Household needs (grocery, drug,
convenience)
Mid-priced food and dining
Entertainment venues
Strongest opportunity for high-end
national tenants
Major retail centers (power,
lifestyle, and regional) drawing
from the whole county
Serve niche populations with local or
non-traditional tenants
Identify service gaps for household needs
Strategic Direction
Existing, cheap space ripe for
independent businesses
Renovate older buildings and main
streets
Improve quality of tenanting at
existing retail centers
Identify location/center most
suitable for higher-end retail
Improve quality of tenants
Address location and access issues
COUNTY RETAIL STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN AND
MARKETING PLAN OBJECTIVES
Retail Strategic Action Plan
Re-energize underutilized retail properties.
Create long lasting, high value places to support luxury retail over the long–term.
Focus resources and efforts to improve retail in a targeted direction–healthy, stable, troubled
properties.
Coordinate land use policies (target growth areas) with retail marketability. The County is
pro-retail and has a new and improved development review and entitlement process.
Transition strategies to action over the long-term.
Retail Marketing Plan
Enhanced Marketing and Branding. Targeted one-on-one outreach. Conferences such as
International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), Urban Land Institute (ULI), National Retail
Federation (NRF). Educational seminars.
Create a compelling story. All stakeholders.(County officials, brokers, tenant representatives,
developers, other “champions.”) should be telling the same positive story.
Highlight new retailers and retail developments. Share positive facts and figures.
Strong, underserved middle class.
Strategic places for retail exist and are getting stronger. Many potential redevelopment
targets.
Explore Expand Experience.
COMPETE
IN THE
REGION
FOR
HIGHER
QUALITY
RETAIL
25
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For Further Information Contact:
Prince George’s County Economic Development Corporation
Larry Hentz, Director of Business Development
(301) 583-4650
M-NCPPC, Prince George’s County Planning Department
Jacqueline Philson, Master Planner, Project Manager/Facilitator
Countywide Planning Division
301-952-3627
Michael Zamore, Acting Planning Supervisor
Community Planning Division
301-952-3253
Study Links:Retail Market Analysis:
http://www.pgplanning.org/Resources/Publications/Retail_Market_Analysis.htm
Retail Marketability and Competitiveness Study:
http://www.mncppcapps.org/planning/Publications/PDFs/311/Retail%20Marketability%20Analysis%20Deliverable.pdf
High-End Retail Market Analysis:
http://www.mncppcapps.org/planning/Publications/PDFs/312/High-End%20Retail%20Deliverable.pdf