PRIMES v3 (draft) comparison

25th May 2007 projections expert panel meeting

Melanie Hobson

Overview of presentation

• Comparison of how the new draft PRIMES (v3) energy forecasts for the UK compare with the UK’s own forecasts

• Aim is to encourage Countries to carry out their own comparisons. • Important that Countries are happy with the results• UK’s energy forecasts – current status

Concerns

• Power station sector• Overall trends• Domestic• Transport• Industry

Power stations - coal

Actual and projected coal consumption by power stations

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

MT

OE coal (UK)

coal (primes)

Power stations – natural gas

Actual and projected natural gas consumption by power stations

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

MT

OE natural gas (UK)

natural gas (primes)

Domestic sector - coal

Actual and projected coal consumption in the domestic sector

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

KT

OE

UK

Primes

Industrial sector - gas

Actual and projected gas consumption in the industrial sector

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

KT

OE

UK

Primes

Transport sector

Actual and projected diesel and gasoline consumption

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

KT

OE

diesel oil (UK)

diesel oil (primes)

gasoline (UK)

gasoline (primes)

Conclusions

• Encourage Countries to compare their own energy forecasts with the new version of PRIMES.

• That the methodology is obtained for converting between the Eurostat data and data in PRIMES

• That more of a detailed breakdown by sector is provided for PRIMES by fuel type – for example transport.