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Future of Mobile MediaTRANSCRIPT
ITSICopyright@2010
Technology 2020
Pieter GeldenhuysInstitute for Technology Strategy &
InnovationPotchefstroom Business School, NWU
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The Web is dead, long live the Internet
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Agenda
Society
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What will the future look like?
“ The future has already happened, it is just unequally distributed.”
- William Gibson
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The Relationship Between Strategy and ScenariosThe hypotheses of current strategic analysis are considered in the context of a range of plausible futures created through a facilitated process comprising both internal and external experts.
What is What Should be
What Could be
Internal Analysis &Hypothesis Generation
Scenario ThinkingBusiness Model
Design
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In the next decade … 95% of video and DVD stores will close down
You will have your own TV channel Augmented Reality will redefine how you see the world
TV stations will carry personalised advertisements
Your current cellular number will stop being the primary identifier in your life
You will finally be able to see the world from a celebrity's point of view
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The primary forces
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The primary forcesMoore’s law
Processing power will double every 18 months
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The primary forces
Bandwidth
- will double every 9 months
This revolution will mean very low-cost high-bandwidth communication
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More information can today be sent over a single cable in a second than was sent over the entire Internet in 2004 in a month.
Bell Labs -> new world speed record for fiber-optic transport. This record, 100 petabits per second kilometer, exceeds previous records such as one achieved in May 2009 of 19 petabyes per second per kilometer (Pbps/km) claimed by AT&T, NEC and Corning.
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How was it done?
155 simultaneous wavelengths of light over a single 7000 km fiber, with optical repeaters every 90 km along the link. Each wavelength carried 100 gigabits per second of traffic to give the fiber a total payload of 15.5 terabits (trillion bits) per second.
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The primary forces
Storewidth is doubling every 12 months.
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Storewidth
"The consumer will have a 5 or 6-terabyte drive by 2009, and will be able to store
25-50,000 CDs —which is all the music
on all the labels! That's when we
officially reach the point of lunacy!“
- Rob Reid, Founder, Listen.com
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Increased processing power & storewidth
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The primary forces
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Industry Trends in the Ubiquitous Internet
Coming Network Society1B+ new mobile subscribers mainly in Emerging Markets
Totally up to 5B+ subscribers
Emerging Cloud ComputingTrillion US$ Internet application market
Converged value chain: Telecom, Internet, Software, Media, Electronics
Ubiquitous Broadband300M new fixed line BB subscribers, totally up to 600M
1.2B new mobile BB subscribers, totally up to 1.4B
Exploding Digital SpaceThousand Exabyte (1018) digital info
10 times traffic increase, up to 50%-80% annual growth
TheBuilding blocks
Of the CyberSphere
5,000,000,000 subscribers
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Mobile bandwidth forecasts
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Bandwidth Explosion
Faster growth than anytime in history!
Faster growth than anytime in history!
DoCoMoPress release March 26th, 2008…“LTE commercial deployment 2010”
EDGE WCDMA HSPA HSPA+ I-HSPA WiMAX10 MHz
WiMAX20 MHz
LTE0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Mbps
SHDSL ADSL ADSL2ADSL2+ VDSL VDSL2 DSM L3
15 y 5 y
20 MHz
35x
100-200x
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A new era of wireless connectivity
3.5 – 3.7 GHz
2.5 – 2.7 GHz2.4 GHz
2.1 GHz
1800 MHz
900 MHz
850 MHz
692 – 850 MHz
GSM
PSM
WCDMA
WiFiWiMax / LTE
WiMax
CDMA 2000
UTRAN LTE
RangeNormativeBandwidth
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App. orContent provider
Portal Net Core ID & Billing
Intel Edge
Local loop
Users Hard
OS Browser App.
The Digital Value chainIntelligence
IdentificationPower
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The Digital Value chain
Open Network
Open Network
Controlled Network
App. orContent provider
Portals Net Core ID &
Billing Intel. Edge
Local loop
Users Hard
OS Browser
App. orContent provider
Billing Portals Net Core Local loop
Users Hard
OS Browser Intel. ID App.
App.
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Abundance
“Survival dictates that human beings develop an ethics
and aesthetics that favour exploiting fully those recourses
that exist in abundance and economizing on those items
that are in short supply.”
- Taichi Sakaiya
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Exploiting the abundance
"Bandwidth is doubling every 8-9 months. Storage is doubling every 12 months. Computing power is doubling every 18 months. We're here to talk about exploiting the abundance."
- Niel Robertson, Technologist-in-Residence, Mobius Venture Capital, and former Technology Advisor, Exodus
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The ubiquitous Internet will need
to be redefined if we are to understand its true potential.
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Visible & Audible spectrum
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The Internet is accessible everywhere on the planet
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The Internet is all around us,
pervasive,
intelligent
and
invisible,
not confined to the narrow boundaries of our mind and experience.
The story so far
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The building blocks of the Cybersphere
Physical Space
Mental Space
TheInternet
Cyberspace
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The building blocks of the Cybersphere
Physical Space
TheInternet
Mental Space
Cyberspace
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The building blocks of the Cybersphere
Ubiquitous Internet
Ubiquitous Cyberspace
is the virtual & physical space where all the electronic
technologies
Internet, payment systems, telephones, computing devices, media, security systems, digital personal identities, augmented
reality
- all converge into a single seamless system.
CyberSphere
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The CyberSphere becomes part of the Biosphere
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Welcome to the CyberSphere
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Oracle of DelphiThe Pythia (Greek: Πυθία) was the priestess
presiding over the Oracle of Apollo at Delphi, located on the slopes of Mount Parnassus.
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The Oracle for a new millennium
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The Oracle for a new millennium
What is the exchange rate right now?
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The Oracle for a new millennium
What will the weather be like in Port Louis, Mauritius?
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The Oracle for a new millennium
Where can I find the Telecosm handbook?
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The Oracle for a new millennium
What song is playing right now?
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The Oracle for a new millennium
Where is the closest resort?
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The Oracle for a new millennium
Where is my car?
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The Oracle for a new millennium
What is happening at my office?
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The Oracle for a new millennium
Where is the closest open restaurant?
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Augmented reality is just around the corner
Special at Baby City: Pamper nappies (0-3month)R99.00/40
Special at BabysRus: Pamper nappies (0-3month)R80.00/40
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Augmented reality is just around the corner
Special at Baby City: Pamper nappies (0-3month)R99.00/40
Special at BabysRus: Pamper nappies (0-3month)R80.00/40
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AR for the London Underground
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Technology’s impact on time and space
Internet Protocol
InformationBecomes
Agnostic to Content
Bandwidth
InformationBecomes
Agnostic to Time
Connectivity
InformationBecomes
Agnostic to Space
Quality ofExperience
InformationBecomes
Agnostic to Form
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The Advertiser’s dream
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The Future of Mobile Commerce…
… will increasingly link the Virtual World to the real word.
On every phone
Everywhere
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Leveraging the QR and Bar code revolution
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Leveraging the QR and Bar code revolution
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Get your horse ready
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One click e-Commerce
Handheld TV units have bi-directional communicationcapabilities, which allows for sequential e-Commerce applications.
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Wearable computer interfaces
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Augmented reality
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Telepresence - today and tomorrow
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RFID & Auto Identification
Source: www.autoid.org
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Supermarkets & RFIDs
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Payment via Near Field CommunicationEarly market: Hong Kong
Acceptance of Octopus Card for mini and micro-payments
throughout the city. Nokia and Sony are ready to
launch NFC phones in Hong Kong in 3rd Qtr 2006
.
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The eBook competition is heating up
AmazonKindle
$299
Sony eBookReader
$199
B&N Reader$199
Apple iPad $499
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My Avatar and I
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Avatars and their owners
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Life in Second World
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Wifi coverage built into public phone terminals
Smart Barbie with GPS tracking, personality chip and full sensory input
Artificial Intelligent houses which react to occupants
TIM
ELIN
E
2010
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
TIM
ELIN
E
2011Hospitals use virtual queuing systems
Neural networks used for patient appointment management
Multimedia patient records
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Home manager computer
Chips in packaging control cooking
Washing machine aware of contents and selects cycle
TIM
ELIN
E
2011
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
TIM
ELIN
E
2012Electronic wallpaperFull voice interaction with machine Anti-noise technology built into homes
Programmable noise cancellation earplugs
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Voice synthesis quality up to human standard
Voice over IP spam calls become prevalent
Highly integrated biosensors
TIM
ELIN
E
2013
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
TIM
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2013Video surveillance of neighbours becomes social problem
Government introduce legislation to protect local community Intellectual Property from exploitation in the Virtual World
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
TIM
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E
2014Electronic cash from internet migrates onto high street
Personal banking replaced by agentsGlobal barter sub-economy
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
TIM
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E
2014Shadow democracy used in community networks
Most tickets electronic In-store positioning systems enable personalised guides
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Artificial Intelligent teachers get better results than most human teachers
3D TV without need for special glasses
Holographic displays for continuous video
3D video conferencing
TIM
ELIN
E
2015
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Genetic screening widely used
Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to medical records
Operations videoed and stored as part of medical record
TIM
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E
2015
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation
Integrated taxation in all transactions
More people using telework centres than home working
TIM
ELIN
E
2015
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Office Automation systems using functions similar to brain functions
Satellite location devices implanted into humans become commonplace
Machine use of human-like creativity
TIM
ELIN
E
2017
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Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives dominate
Purely electronic companies exist - minimal human involvement
TIM
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2018
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
VR overlays on real world
VR escapism is a major social problem
TIM
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2018
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Online surgeries dominate first line medical care
Quiz shows screen for implant technologies
Some implants seen as status symbols
TIM
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2018
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
ID cards replaced by biometric scanning
Cyberspace covers 75% of developed world
TIM
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2018
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Global voting on some issuesNetwork based telepathyVR extensively used in retirement homes
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
TIM
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2020
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Creation of “The Matrix” Experience recording Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
TIM
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2025
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Business Opportunities in a world of abundance
Personalised TV advertisements Shared RAN with Government / Competitors Video glasses “Time share” Virtual Presence Free in-company cellular calls via Piconets /
Femtocells to counter SIP over WiFi Paris Metro Pricing to counter Skype over 3G
/ LTE Personal Cockpit to allow web agents to
gather all relevant information on your behalf Management of all your IP addresses via
your own cockpit
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Universal Resource Locater (URL)125.14.123.123 is actually www.cnn.com
So, if your devices are called196.14.23.45.13.126
198.34.56.78.123.235 or198.34.56.78.235.12
What prohibits us then from giving all our devices
an easy-to-remember name?
Which bring us to the next question:
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What will be the most important Internet address in my life?
Pieter.Geldenhuys.rsa.namephone.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name
Registrations for rsa.name opened 1st Q of 2004 !
home.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name
car.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Smart Barbie with personality chip and full sensory input
Artificial Intelligent houses which react to occupants
Expert systems surpass human learning and logic abilities
TIM
ELIN
E
2008
ITSICopyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?Home manager computer
Chips in packaging control cooking
Washing machine aware of contents and selects cycle
TIM
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E
2009
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Windows with holographic coatings to re-direct sunlight
Virtual windowsFull voice interaction with machine
TIM
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2009
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Voice synthesis quality up to human standard
Talking head technology used in public terminals
Highly integrated biosensors
TIM
ELIN
E
2010
ITSICopyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Office Automation systems using functions similar to brain functions
Satellite location devices implanted into humans become commonplace
Machine use of human-like creativity
TIM
ELIN
E
2010
ITSICopyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Hospitals use virtual queuing systems
Neural networks used for patient appointment management
Multimedia patient records
TIM
ELIN
E
2010
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Genetic screening widely used
Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to medical records
Operations videoed and stored as part of medical record
TIM
ELIN
E
2011
ITSICopyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives dominate
Purely electronic companies exist - minimal human involvement
Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation
Integrated taxation in all transactions
TIM
ELIN
E
2008
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Technological events that will define the epoch
VR overlays on real world
VR escapism is a major social problem
Direct electronic pleasure production
Artificial senses, sensors directly stimulating nerves
TIM
ELIN
E
2011
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Online surgeries dominate first line medical care
Quiz shows screen for implant technologies
Some implants seen as status symbols
TIM
ELIN
E
2012
ITSICopyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Artificial Intelligent teachers get better results than most human teachers
3D TV without need for special glasses
Holographic displays for continuous video
3D video conferencing
TIM
ELIN
E
2015
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Dual geo/cyber-nationality recognised internationally
Use of virtual environments for proxy space exploration Emotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger)
Digital image overlays enhance relationships
TIM
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2016
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Desktop computer as fast as human brain
1 Petabit memory chip
AI technology imitating thinking processes of the brain
TIM
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2017
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Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
Parallel computer with 1000 million processors
ID cards replaced by biometric scanning
Cyberspace covers 75% of developed world
TIM
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E
2017
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Get more projections about the future at
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Use of talking head technology for conferencing
Net bring and buy exchangesShopping lists automatically compiled by supermarkets
TIM
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2005
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Personal shopping tabletsPeople have cyberspace wardrobeFrequent use of multiple Net identities causes personality disorders
TIM
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2005
South Korean company selling Avatar clothing
made more than $ 10 million
profit in 2003 !!!
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
First cellular phone virus becomes prevalent
RFIDs become commonplaceGlobal electronic currency in use Conferencing technology for remote socialising in public places
TIM
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2005
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
1000 000 000 Internet usersPeople reduce tax liability by being partially paid in information products
Replacement of people leads to anti-technology subculture
TIM
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2006
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Digital bathroom mirrorMagazine tabletsPersonalised response from household gadgets
Electronic newspapers
TIM
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2008
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Automated real life highlight channels on digital TV
VR overlays on real world Paper and coins largely replaced by electronic cash
TIM
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2009
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Electronic wallpaperMood sensitive light bulbsAnti-noise technology built into homes
Programmable noise cancellation earplugs
TIM
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E
2010
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Video surveillance of neighbours becomes social problem
Government introduce legislation to protect local community IP
Social software, organising functions etc
Holodeck meeting room
TIM
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2011
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Electronic cash from internet migrates onto high street
Personal banking replaced by agentsGlobal barter sub-economy
TIM
ELIN
E
2012
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Shadow democracy used in community networks
Most tickets electronic In-store positioning systems enable personalised guides
TIM
ELIN
E
2013
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation
Integrated taxation in all transactions
More people using telework centres than home working
TIM
ELIN
E
2015
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Most towns echoed in cyberspaceEmotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger)
Major pension crises
TIM
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E
2017
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Global voting on some issuesNetwork based telepathyVR extensively used in retirement homes
TIM
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E
2025
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Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
Creation of “The Matrix” Experience recording Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology
TIM
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E
2035
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How do you create value in this environment?
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Sections of the presentation available on
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Training -> Strategy Partners
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