primary surplus vs the liquidity of the greek banking system
TRANSCRIPT
Piraeus Bank Economic Research & Investment Strategy
Ilias Lekkos
Irini Staggel
Anastasia Aggelopoulou [email protected]
Piraeus Bank
94, Vas. Sofias Ave. & 1, Kerassountos str.,
115 28 Athens
tel: (+30) 210 328 8187
fax: (+30) 210 373 9580
Primary surplus vs liquidity of the Greekbanking system
Already during the first years of the bail-out programme, we
had highlighted to several of our interlocutors (including the
technical staff of the institutions) that an unintended but
serious side-effect of forcing Greece to achieve high primary
surpluses, which were to be used exclusively for the
repayment of the Greek state’s external debt, would be
reducing bank deposits and depriving the Greek banking
system of an equivalent amount of liquidity. The front-loaded
achievement of a substantial primary surplus in 2016 offers a
first-class opportunity to prove the validity of our arguments,
the credibility of which was questioned by almost everyone.
Before setting forth we would like to clarify that the liquidity
outflow is attributed neither to the obligation of the Greek
state to achieve high primary surpluses nor to its obligation
to use said surpluses for the repayment of its debt. It is
attributed to using said surpluses to repay external debt.
But let's take things from the beginning. Under a capital
controls regime the liquidity of the Greek economy can be
compared to a closed and fully controlled system, in which
the change of deposits over the year should be equal to the
algebraic sum of new inflows minus new outflows. Taking as
a starting point the deposits of December 2015 amounting to
€133.8bn, in 2016 the total inflows amounted to €15.9bn
compared to just €2.5bn of outflows due to the deleveraging
of the Greek economy. Still, deposits increased by just €5.5bn
(before the adjustments for the reclassification of deposits of
the Hellenic Deposit and Investment Guarantee Fund “TEKE”
and the Consignment Deposits and Loans Fund). Until a few
days ago, i.e. until the publication of the primary surplus
outcome by the Hellenic Statistical Authority, the gap of € 7-
8bn had been challenging our calculations. Following the
publication of the General Government fiscal accounts,
however, the data fully agree with just a small deviation of
approximately €1bn.
1
ECONOMIC RESEARCH & INVESTMENT STRATEGY
May 2017
Liquidity Changes (in € bn)
Sources: Bank of Greece, ELSTAT, MinFin, Piraeus bank research
An alternative and very easy way to double check whether using surpluses to serve the external debt
leads to a decrease in deposits is by comparing the composition as well as the level of funding needs of
the Greek state to the relevant sources that provide said financing. Under the memorandum of 2015, the
Greek state had to repay in 2016 obligations amounting to a total of €17bn in view of which the state had
planned receiving €16.4bn from the programme and further EUR 1.3bn from privatisations. Yet the total
financing was eventually limited to EUR 10.3bn as the last tranche of the programme amounting to €6.1bn
was not disbursed and the revenues from the privatisations were also not collected. Still, the Greek state
was able to pay all its obligations as the amount of €7.4bn (€6.1bn +€1.3bn) that was not disbursed was
finally covered to its largest part by the primary surplus. The result of this was a liquidity outflow
amounting to approximately €7bn.
Last but not least, we would like to stress out that despite the fact that the aforementioned analysis
focuses on the development of deposits in 2016, its conclusions are not limited to 2016 but have a
general validity and provide a guide to future developments. In brief, the core of our arguments can be
summarised as follows: For each year from now on, the starting point for the calculation of deposits and
liquidity should be the deposits of the previous year reduced by the amount of the target for the primary
surplus. The fact that from 2018 on the surplus target shall amount to 3.5% of GDP translates into an
annual deposit outflow of approximately €6.5bn. Whether or not the banking system can, year after year,
come up with sufficient alternative sources of funding to counterbalance its negative starting point and
improve its liquidity remains one of the biggest challenges for all parties involved.
2
Tables & Charts
3
Greece: Economic Activity
1. Real GDP (% change) 2. Nominal GDP (% change)
3. Contribution of the main GDP components to the economic growth
4. Contribution of the domestic demand components to the economic growth
5. Gross Saving Ratio (households, % of disposable income)
6. Households’ Gross disposable income & Consumption
Source: ELSTAT, Economic Research & Investment Strategy
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
4
Greece: GDP components
1. Real GDP (€ bn)2. Gross Fixed Capital Formation
(2010 prices, € bn)
3. Private Consumption (2010 prices, € bn) 4. Public Consumption (2010 prices, € bn)
5. Imports of goods & services (2010 prices, € bn)
6. Exports of goods & services (2010 prices, € bn)
Source: ELSTAT, Economic Research & Investment Strategy
5
Greece: Prices
1. Real vs Nominal GDP (annual % change) 2. GDP deflator vs CPI (annual % change)
3. Effect of tax changes 4. Inflation (CPI & HICP, annual % change)
Source: ELSTAT, Eurostat, Economic Research & Investment Strategy
6
Greece: Labour Market
1. Unemployment Rate (nsa data) 2. Unemployment Rate
3. Employment (nsa data)4. “ New” & Long – term unemployed*
(nsa data, thousands of persons)
* “new” unemployed: first time entering the labour market** long –term unemployed: seeking a job for >= 12 months
Source: ELSTAT, Economic Research & Investment Strategy
7
Greece: Short - term indicators
1. Industrial Production Index(sa data, annual % change)
2. Volume Indices in Retail Trade (annual % change)
3. Contribution of the main components to the Production Index in Construction (PIC)
4. Number of Building Permits (nsa data, annual % change)
5. Turnover Index in Wholesale Trade (sa data, annual % change)
6. Turnover Index in Services, excl. trade & vehicles (sa data, annual % change)
Source: ELSTAT, Eurostat, Economic Research & Investment Strategy 8
Greece: State Budget Execution
Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic Research & Investment Strategy
1/ Budget targets, according to the total estimates as depicted in the 2017 Budget introductory report. 2/ The total revenue and expenditure outcome is preliminary and will be finalized after the vote of 2016 annual budget report (for both revenue and expenditure). 3/ Annual estimates as depicted in 2017 Budget introductory report, without the settlement program of previous years arrears.4/ Line "Revenue before Tax Refunds" includes Interest Revenue from guarantees called, for comparability purposes. 5/ Privatization proceeds includes only non financial transactions.6/According to the 2017 Budget Introductory Report, subsidies to entities for wages in Ordinary Budget are accounted in "Operational and other expenditures" and expenditure on ESY doctors on-call duty and EKAB doctors on-call duty, are accounted in "Grants to Social Security Sector" and in "Operational and other expenditures" respectively. 7/ Amounts on a gross basis, for comparability purposes.8/Elements are fiscally neutral on a General Government basis.
2016 2017 2016 2017
Jan.- Mar. Jan.-Mar.Budget
Estimates 2017 1/ Difference Outcome /2 Budget Estimates
2017 /3
1 Ordinary Budget (a) (b) (c)=(b-a) (d) (e)=(b-d) (f) (g)
2 Net Revenue (1+2-3) 10,944 10,766 -178 11,629 -863 49,982 50,374
3 1.Total Revenue before Tax Refunds /4
(Recurring & Non-Recurring)11,665 11,717 54 11,037 680 53,140 51,619
4 Recurring Revenue 11,181 11,269 88 10,635 633 52,336 51,001
5 Direct Taxes 3,874 3,509 -365 3,212 296 21,839 20,4156 Indirect Taxes 5,691 6,007 316 6,076 -69 25,680 26,4437 Total Non-Tax Revenue 1,617 1,753 136 1,347 406 4,816 4,143
8 Non-Recurring Revenue 483 449 -34 402 47 804 618
9Revenue of incorporated off-budget
accounts63 69 6 57 12 304 273
10 Liquidity Support Plan Proceeds 18 0 -18 0 0 96 0
11 NATO income 28 35 7 0 35 30 0
12 ANFA & SMP Revenue 375 345 -30 345 0 375 345
13 2. Privatization proceeds /5 41 63 22 1,354 -1,291 106 2,044
14 3. Tax Refunds 762 1,014 252 762 251 3,263 3,289
15 Expenditure (1+2) 12,513 12,416 -97 13,172 -756 50,683 49,536
16 1. Primary expenditure 10,056 9,982 -73 10,772 -790 45,106 43,98617 (a) Salaries & Pensions /6 4,482 2,982 -1,500 3,081 -99 18,065 12,337
18 (b) Grants to Social Security Sector /6 3,029 4,472 1,443 4,738 -266 15,630 20,210
19(c) Operational and Other Expenditures
& Earmarked Revenues /6 1,691 1,778 87 2,340 -562 8,557 8,873
20 Sub-total (a+ b+c) /6 9,202 9,232 30 10,159 -927 42,253 41,420
21 Contingency Reserve 0 0 0 75 -75 0 1,000
22Payments for military equipment
procurement (cash basis)15 86 71 10 76 584 475
23 Guarantees Called to bodies 293 471 178 508 -37 1,651 1,017
24classified inside the General Government
(gross basis)/7 290 468 178 474 -6 1,619 876
25 classified outside the General Government 3 3 0 34 -31 32 141
26Debt assumptions of General
Government bodies /8 544 192 -352 0 192 553 0
27Disbursement fee to banks, EFSF and
other government debt expenses1 1 0 20 -19 65 75
28 2. Net interest payments 2,457 2,434 -23 2,400 34 5,577 5,550
29 Ordinary Budget Balance -1,569 -1,650 -1,543 -701 838
30 Public Investment Budget31 Net Revenues 1,554 651 -903 786 -135 4,178 4,15532 Expenditure 580 366 -214 651 -285 6,288 6,750
33 Public Investment Budget Balance 974 285 135 -2,110 -2,595
34 State Budget Net Revenue 12,498 11,417 -1,081 12,415 -998 54,161 54,529
35 State Budget Expenditure 13,093 12,782 -311 13,823 -1,041 56,970 56,286
36 State Budget Balance -595 -1,364 -1,408 -2,810 -1,757
37 State Budget Primary Balance 1,863 1,070 992 2,767 3,793
State Budget Execution 2017
million € Difference
Jan.-17
9
Greece: Bonds & Loans Maturities (as of May. ‘17)
Source: MinFin, Bloomberg, EFSF, ESM, IMF, Economic Research & Investment Strategy
*Figures do not include T-bills and approx. €26 bn related to Bank of Greece loans, special and bilateral loans, other internal and external loans, repos and external securitizations. Moreover notes amounting to €5.4 bn that have been disbursed for funding bank recapitalisation are not included. The amount was disbursed pro rata in ESM floating rate notes and the final maturity will be in line with the maximum weighted average loan maturity of 32.5 years.
10
Greece: Balance of Payments
Source: Bank of Greece, Economic Research & Investment Strategy
*(+) increase ( - ) decrease According to the new BPM6, an increase /decrease of assets receives a positive/negative sign and an increase/decrease of liabilities
receives a positive/negative sign. **(+) increase ( - ) decrease According to the new BPM6, an increase /decrease of reserve assets receives a positive/negative sign.
*** Reserve assets, as defined by the ECB, only include monetary gold, the reserve position at the IMF, special drawing rights and the Bank of Greece's claims in foreign
currency on residents of countries outside the euro area. Conversely, reserve assets do not include claims in euro on residents of countries outside the euro area, claims
in foreign currency and in euro on residents of euro area countries and the Bank of Greece's participation in the capital and the reserve assets of the ECB.
1 mn €
2 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
3 I CURRENT ACCOUNT (I.A + I.B + I.C + Ι.D) -1,688 -1,599 -1,208 -1,431 -828 -937
4 GOODS AND SERVICES (I.A + I.B) -2,189 -2,184 -2,442 -1,204 -1,282 -1,313
5 I.A GOODS ( I.Α.1 - I.Α.2) -3,019 -2,587 -3,099 -1,586 -1,448 -1,638
6 OIL balance -602 -371 -724 -332 -223 -444
7 Ships' Balance -156 -9 -19 -97 -2 -27
8 BALANCE OF GOODS excl. oil & ships -2,261 -2,208 -2,355 -1,157 -1,223 -1,167
9 I.A.1 Exports 3,814 3,501 4,134 1,972 1,833 2,047
10 Oil 1,000 747 1,242 555 383 583
11 Ships 54 13 54 17 5 5
12 Goods excl.oil & ships 2,759 2,740 2,837 1,400 1,444 1,459
13 I.A.2 Imports 6,832 6,088 7,232 3,558 3,281 3,685
14 Oil 1,602 1,118 1,966 887 606 1,028
15 Ships 210 22 73 114 8 31
16 Goods excl. oil & ships 5,020 4,948 5,193 2,557 2,667 2,626
17 I.B SERVICES ( I.Β.1 - I.Β.2) 830 403 656 382 166 325
18 I.B.1 Receipts 3,080 1,886 2,288 1,482 994 1,108
19 Travel 312 319 310 143 150 145
20 Transportation 2,047 1,077 1,279 995 598 625
21 Other services 720 490 699 344 246 338
22 I.B.2 Payments 2,250 1,482 1,632 1,100 827 783
23 Travel 297 273 246 139 143 97
24 Transportation 1,113 668 766 521 351 387
25 Other services 840 541 619 440 333 300
26 I.C PRIMARY INCOME (I.C.1 - I.C.2) 531 548 911 -117 407 261
27 I.C.1 Receipts 2,267 1,697 1,957 1,123 1,326 1,049
28 Compensation of employees 30 17 21 16 9 9
29 Investment income 769 608 563 386 291 282
30 Other primary income 1,469 1,073 1,373 722 1,027 757
31 I.C.2 Payments 1,736 1,149 1,046 1,240 919 788
32 Compensation of employees 108 33 43 48 16 22
33 Investment income 1,538 1,056 961 1,128 850 739
34 Other primary income 90 60 43 63 53 27
35 I.D SECONDARY INCOME (I.D.1 - I.D.2) -30 36 323 -110 46 115
36 I.D.1 Receipts 657 465 673 318 393 323
37 General government 490 358 458 241 342 252
38 Other sectors 167 107 216 77 51 70
39 I.D.2 Payments 687 429 350 428 347 207
40 General government 509 338 242 359 300 154
41 Other sectors 178 91 108 69 47 54
42 II CAPITAL ACCOUNT (II.1 - II.2) 159 632 253 109 244 212
43 II.1 Receipts 199 674 275 127 264 218
44 General government 190 667 267 122 261 215
45 Other sectors 10 7 8 5 3 3
46 II.2 Payments 40 42 23 18 20 6
47 General government 2 0 0 1 0 0
48 Other sectors 39 42 22 17 20 6
49 CURRENT ACCOUNT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT (I + II) -1,529 -968 -955 -1,322 -584 -725
50 III FINANCIAL ACCOUNT * (IIΙ.Α + ΙII.Β + ΙII.C + ΙII.D)-1,628 -519 -470 -623 -340 -224
51 III.A DIRECT INVESTMENT* 187 77 -66 89 35 91
52 Assets 345 260 283 169 121 170
53 Liabilities 157 182 349 80 86 79
54 III.B PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT* -5,296 2,282 -1,199 -8,817 1,189 -1,307
55 Assets -7,457 1,888 -946 -9,547 1,210 -1,272
56 Liabilities -2,161 -395 254 -730 21 35
57 III.C OTHER INVESTMENT* 3,172 -3,237 1,079 8,105 -1,967 1,081
58 Assets 12,216 -345 -805 2,779 -50 155
59 Liabilities 9,043 2,892 -1,883 -5,325 1,917 -926
60 ( Loans of general goverment ) -1,201 -467 -1,987 -760 -6 -1,981
61 III.D CHANGE IN RESERVE ASSETS ** 308 358 -283 0 403 -89
62 IV BALANCING ITEM ( Ι + ΙΙ - III + IV = 0 ) -99 448 485 699 244 501
63 RESERVE ASSETS (STOCK)* * * 5,723 6,442 6,561
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (million euro)
(provisional data)
January-February February
11
Greece: Credit to the domestic Private Sector
(1) The outstanding amounts include loans and holdings of corporate bonds, irrespectively of whether they have been securitised.(2) As of December 2016, loans of the Consignment Deposits and Loan Fund are excluded from the domestic credit as the institution has been
reclassified from the financial sector to the general government sector.(3) Net flows and growth rates are calculated taking into account reclassifications and transfers of loans/corporate bonds, write-offs and exchange rate
variations.
Source: Bank of Greece, Economic Research & Investment Strategy
1 JAN 2017 FEB 2017 MAR 2017
2 Ι. TOTAL
3 Outstanding amount of credit 193,986 194,048 193,033
4 Monthly net flow -885 -101 307
5 (%) 12-month change -1.6% -1.6% -1.3%
6 ΙΙ. CORPORATIONS
7 Outstanding amount of credit 93,782 93,956 93,431
8 Monthly net flow -643 82 487
9 (%) 12-month change -0.5% -0.3% -0.1%
10 ΙΙΑ. NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS
11 Outstanding amount of credit 86,897 87,008 86,714
12 Monthly net flow -451 22 471
13 (%) 12-month change -0.5% -0.4% -0.2%
14 1. Agriculture
15 Outstanding amount of credit 1,330 1,305 1,280
16 (%) 12-month change -0.4% -2.4% -3.4%
17 2. Industry
18 Outstanding amount of credit 19,831 19,769 19,518
19 (%) 12-month change -2.6% -2.7% -2.1%
20 3. Trade
21 Outstanding amount of credit 18,563 18,557 18,904
22 (%) 12-month change 1.0% 0.8% 2.5%
23 4. Tourism
24 Outstanding amount of credit 7,626 7,645 7,645
25 (%) 12-month change 2.6% 2.5% 2.1%
26 5. Shipping
27 Outstanding amount of credit 9,151 9,287 9,072
28 (%) 12-month change -1.2% -0.1% -1.7%
29 6. Construction
30 Outstanding amount of credit 9,720 9,728 9,443
31 (%) 12-month change -1.5% -1.3% -2.9%
32 7. Electricity - Gas - Water
33 Outstanding amount of credit 4,756 4,738 4,779
34 (%) 12-month change 1.8% 1.1% 2.0%
35 8. Storage and Transport services excl. Shipping
36 Outstanding amount of credit 1,079 1,134 1,136
37 (%) 12-month change 4.7% 8.4% 8.8%
38 9. Remaining sectors
39 Outstanding amount of credit 14,841 14,846 14,937
40 (%) 12-month change -1.2% -0.7% -0.4%
41 ΙΙΒ. INSURANCE CORPORATIONS & OTHER FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES
42 Outstanding amount of credit 6,885 6,948 6,717
43 Monthly net flow -191 60 16
44 (%) 12-month change 0.1% 1.0% 1.8%
45 ΙΙI. SOLE PROPRIETORS & UNINCORPORATED PARTNERSHIPS
46 Outstanding amount of credit 13,111 13,086 13,080
47 Monthly net flow -22 -30 77
48 (%) 12-month change -2.0% -2.1% -1.4%
49 ΙV. INDIVIDUALS & PRIVATE NON-PROFIT INSTITUTIONS
50 Outstanding amount of credit 87,094 87,007 86,523
51 Monthly net flow -221 -153 -257
52 (%) 12-month change -2.8% -2.7% -2.6%
53 1. Housing loans
54 Outstanding amount of credit 61,230 61,085 60,852
55 Monthly net flow -209 -145 -170
56 (%) 12-month change -3.4% -3.3% -3.3%
57 2. Consumer credit
58 Outstanding amount of credit 24,464 24,525 24,342
59 Monthly net flow -7 -9 -52
60 (%) 12-month change -0.7% -0.7% -0.7%
61 3. Other loans
62 Outstanding amount of credit 1,400 1,397 1,328
63 Monthly net flow -4 2 -34
64 (%) 12-month change -9.7% -9.4% -5.3%
CREDIT (1),(2) TO THE DOMESTIC PRIVATE SECTOR
(Outstanding amounts and net flows (3) in EUR millions)
12
Greece: Deposits of Non MFIs in MFIs (excl. BoG)
Source: Bank of Greece, Economic Research & Investment Strategy
(1) Excluding the Bank of Greece.As of December 2016, loans of the Consignment Deposits and Loan Fund are excluded from the domestic deposits as the institution has been reclassified from the financial sector to the general government sector.
(2) Net flows and growth rates are calculated taking into account reclassifications and transfers of loans/corporate bonds, write-offs and exchange rate variations.
1 JAN 2017 FEB 2017 MAR 2017
2 DOMESTIC RESIDENTS
3 Outstanding amount of credit 130,863 130,340 129,898
4 Monthly net flow -1,567 -600 -398
5 (%) 12-month change 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%
6 1. General Government
7 Outstanding amount of credit 11,117 11,267 10,591
8 Monthly net flow -34 150 -677
9 (%) 12-month change 16.3% 17.3% 13.1%
10 2. Corporations and Households (private sector)
11 Outstanding amount of credit 119,745 119,073 119,308
12 Monthly net flow -1,534 -750 278
13 (%) 12-month change 3.1% 2.9% 3.1%
14 2.I. Corporations
15 Outstanding amount of credit 20,034 19,929 20,507
16 Monthly net flow -562 -113 590
17 (%) 12-month change 11.8% 10.3% 12.7%
18 2.I.Α. Non-financial corporations
19 Outstanding amount of credit 17,111 16,584 17,865
20 Monthly net flow -760 -535 1,284
21 (%) 12-month change 16.3% 13.7% 18.4%
22 of which
23 1. Sight deposits
24 Outstanding amount 13,967 13,360 14,127
25 Monthly net flow -759 -611 768
26 2. Time
27 Outstanding amount 2,999 3,078 3,593
28 Monthly net flow -1 76 516
29 2.I.Β. Insurance corporations, Pension Funds and other financial institutions
30 Outstanding amount of credit 2,922 3,345 2,643
31 Monthly net flow 199 422 -695
32 (%) 12-month change -1.5% 1.2% -4.8%
33 of which
34 1. Sight deposits
35 Outstanding amount 1,320 1,368 1,150
36 Monthly net flow 108 47 -211
37 2. Time
38 Outstanding amount 1,600 1,975 1,491
39 Monthly net flow 89 374 -484
40 2.II. Households and Non-profit institutions
41 Outstanding amount of credit 99,712 99,144 98,800
42 Monthly net flow -972 -637 -312
43 (%) 12-month change 1.4% 1.5% 1.2%
44 of which
45 1. Sight deposits
46 Outstanding amount 9,662 9,646 9,796
47 Monthly net flow -568 -20 145
48 2. Savings
49 Outstanding amount 49,640 49,492 48,999
50 Monthly net flow -604 -171 -479
51 3. Time
52 Outstanding amount 40,410 40,006 40,005
53 Monthly net flow 199 -445 23
DEPOSITS & REPOS OF NON MFIs IN MFIs IN GREECE(1)
(Outstanding amounts and net flows (2) in EUR millions)
13
Greece: Piraeus Bank Corporate & Fixed Income Indices
1. Bond Indices Performance 2. PrB Government Bond Index
3. Interest Rate Curve 4. PrB Corporate Bond Index
Source: Bloomberg, Economic Research & Investment Strategy
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Piraeus Bank Corporate ex FinancialsBond Index
Piraeus Bank Government Bond Index
Bloomberg Corporate High Yield BondIndex
Bloomberg Government Bond Index
MoM YtD
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
3Y
R
5Y
R
9Y
R
10
YR
11
YR
12
YR
13
YR
14
YR
15
YR
16
YR
17
YR
18
YR
19
YR
20
YR
21
YR
22
YR
23
YR
24
YR
25
YR
26
YR
27
YR
28
YR
bpspercentage
points
Maturity (in years)
Change (RHS) 31/03/17 30/04/17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Jan
-13
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct-1
3
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Oct-1
4
De
c-1
4
Fe
b-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Se
p-1
5
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jan
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Price (LHS) Yield (RHS)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Ma
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jul-
12
Se
p-1
2
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct-1
3
De
c-1
3
Fe
b-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Jul-
15
Se
p-1
5
De
c-1
5
Fe
b-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Price (LHS) Yield (RHS)
14
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document and seek for independent and professional legal, tax and investment advice, before proceeding with any investment
decision making.
The information depicted in this document is relied on sources that the Bank considers to be reliable and is provided on an “as is”
basis, however, the Bank cannot warrant as to their accuracy and completeness. The opinions and estimates herein are related
to the trend of the local and international financial markets at the indicated date (prices at closing time) and are subject to
changes without any prior notice. Notwithstanding the above, the Bank might include in this document investment researches,
which have been conducted by third persons. In this case, the Bank does not modify those researches, but it presents them on
an “as is” basis, therefore, no responsibility is assumed in relation to the content of the aforementioned investment researches.
The Bank is under no duty to update the information contained in this document. Considering the above, the Bank, the members
of its Board of Directors and the relevant persons assume no responsibility for the information included in the present document
and/or for the outcome of any investment decisions made according to such information.
Piraeus Bank Group is an organization with a significant presence in the Greek market and an increasing one in the international
markets providing a wide range of investment services. In the context of investment services offered by the Bank and/or any other
Piraeus Group companies in general, there might be cases whereby conflict of interests may arise in relation to the information
provided herein. Reference should be made to the fact that the Bank, the relevant persons and/or other Piraeus Group
companies indicatively:
Are not subject to any prohibition in relation to trading on own account or in the course of providing portfolio management
services prior to the publication of this document or the acquisition of any shares prior to any public offering or the acquisition of
any other securities.
May offer upon remuneration investment banking services to issuers for whom this document may contain information.
May participate to the issuers’ share capital or acquire other securities issued by the aforementioned issuers or attract other
financial interests from them.
Might provide market making or underwriting services to issuers that might be mentioned in this document.
Might have published papers the content of which is different or incompatible to the information presented herein.
The Bank as well as the other Piraeus Group's companies have enacted, implement and maintain an effective policy, which
prevents circumstances that may give rise to conflicts of interests and the dissemination of any information among the
departments (“chinese walls”) and they also constantly comply with the provisions and regulations relevant to inside information
and market abuse. Also, the Bank confirms that it doesn’t have any kind of interest or conflict of interest with a) any other legal
entity or person that could have participated in the preparation of the present document and b) with any other legal entity or
person that couldn’t have participated in the preparation of the present document, but had access to it before its publication.
It is duly stated that: the investments described in the present document include investment risks, among which the risk of losing
the entire capital invested. In particular, it is stated that;
The figures presented herein refer to the past and that the past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
In case the figures refer to simulated past performance, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The return on investments might be positively or negatively affected as a result of currency fluctuations, in case the figures are
denominated in a foreign currency (other than Euro).
Any forecasts in relation to future performance, may not be a reliable indicator of future performance.
The tax treatment of the information as well as transactions pertained in this document, depends on each investor's individual
circumstances and may be subject to change in the future. As a result, the recipient should seek for independent advice in
relation to the applicable tax legislation.
The distribution of the present document outside Greece and/or to persons governed by foreign law may be subject to restrictions
or prohibitions according to the applicable legislation. Therefore, the recipient of the present should seek for independent advice
in relation to the applicable legislation, in order to look into such restrictions and/or prohibitions.
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