price / relative price - rapor.isyatirim.com.trrapor.isyatirim.com.tr/2_20170113132250255_1.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
1 Please refer to important disclaimer at the end of this report.
Positive outlook across all segments
We have OUTPERFORM recommendation for SISE shares considering
positive outlook at all operating segments, increasing share of exports, and
favourable valuation compared to global peers. Our SOTP 12M target share
price of 4,75TL/share offers 21% upside potential. At its current Mcap of
US$ 2.0bn, Sisecam shares trade at 9% discount to its current NAV and
20% discount to its target NAV, versus one year historical discount of 0% to
the current and 3% discounts to target NAV.
Strong growth prospects in Turkish glass. Serving at every sub-
segment of the glass industry, the glass conglomerate enjoyed relatively a
better year in 2016 thanks mainly to the improvement in flat glass and
chemicals divisions. Besides, the recovery at glass packaging business was
eye-cathing as well. High growth rates, pent-up demand in domestic
construction industry and improvement in European automotive industry are
the main drivers of the strong performance at flat glass. Apart from that,
robust demand in soda ash market along with higher prices supported the
performance in chemicals division.
Strong performance reflected on financials in 9M16. Sise Cam
recorded 11% YoY top-line growth along with 14% YoY EBITDA growth in
9M16. 30% of the net revenues were generated from flat glass division,
17% from glassware business, 21% from glass packaging unit, 25% from
chemicals segment and the remaining 7% from other operations. EBITDA
stood at at TL1.2bn in 9M16, up 14% YoY. EBITDA margin improved by
0.4pp thanks to operational improvement at all segments. The
enhancement at glass packaging and chemicals business were noteworthy.
Positive expectations for 2017. We estimate consolidated revenues to
grow 10% YoY in 2017 thanks to volume growth, price increases and
change in product mix. Meanwhile, EBITDA is expected to grow 18% YoY in
2017 thanks to improvement at glass packaging &chemicals divisions and
cost reduction measures.
Lower energy prices will support the improvement. The company
benefited from 23% cut in natural gas prices in Bulgaria which is made at
the beginning of 2016. In Turkey natural gas prices lowered by 10% in
October 2016 since BOTAS, having recouped its previous year losses,
reflected the oil driven drop in its purchase price on customers. We estimate
c.5% hike in natural gas prices due to sharp TL depreciation despite the
recent statement by the Energy Ministry that no hike is foreseen in 2017.
Hard currency sales account for 51% of total sales. Exports and
international sales account 51% of total sales, implying the competitive
power on global scale and supporting operational performance during TL
depreciation against hard currencies. Europe is the largest export market,
constituting 49% of total exports, while Asia is the second biggest export
region. Italy, Egypt, France, Bulgaria and UK are major export countries.
Upside risks for the company are i) Acquisitions & capacity additions
ii) Better than anticipated margin delivery and iii) prospective Pasabahce
IPO. Downside risks are i) the downturn in macro environment leading to a
contraction in construction sector, ii) higher than expected natural gas price
hike.
Company Update
Upside Potential 21%
OUTPERFORM
Sise Cam Equity / Large Cap. / Glass
13/01/2017
+90 212 350 25 52
Ilyas Safa Urganci
Ticker SISE
Stock Data TL US$
Price at 12 01 2017 3.94 1.02
Target Price 4.75 1.37
Prev.Target Price 4.75 1.37
Mcap (mn) 8,077 2,098
Float Mcap (mn) 2,732 710
Avg.Daily Volume (3M, mn) 17.0 5.0
No. of Shares Outstanding (mn) 2,050
Free Float (%) 33.83
Multiples 2016E 2017E 2018E
P/E 11.9 9.5 7.7
P/BV 1.0 0.9 0.8
EV/EBITDA 6.3 5.3 4.5
Price Perf. (%) 1 Mn 3 Mn 12 Mn
TL 10 22 49
US$ 1 -1 17
Relative to BIST-100 4 17 34
Price / Relative Price
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
01/1
3
06/1
3
11/1
3
04/1
4
09/1
4
02/1
5
07/1
5
12/1
5
05/1
6
10/1
6
SISE Close(LHS) Relative to BIST100
52 Week Range (Close TL) 3.00 3.94
Foreign Share (%)
45
46
47
18/1
0
01/1
1
15/1
1
29/1
1
13/1
2
27/1
2
10/0
1
Foreign Share (%)3M Average
2
Sise Cam
Summary of Key Financials (TL mn) 2 3 4 5 6
Income Statement (TL mn) 2013A* 2014A* 2015A* 2016E 2017E 2018E
Revenues 6,876 7,415 8,157 8,972 9,870
EBITDA 1,242 1,405 1,627 1,919 2,256
Depreciation & Amortisation 688 738 812 893 983
EBIT 555 667 768 974 1,216
Other income (expense), net 34 149 (11) (12) (13)
Financial expenses, net (182) (127) 25 27 30
Minority Interests 7 82 77 96 118
Income before tax 494 900 846 1,054 1,298
Taxation on Income (75) (95) (89) (111) (137)
Net income 413 723 679 846 1,043
Cash Flow Statement (TL mn)
Net Income 413 723 679 846 1,043
Depreciation & Amortisation 688 738 812 893 983
Indemnity Provisions 43 60 47 52 57
Change in Working Capital (107) (405) (232) (239) (262)
Cash Flow from Operations 1,036 1,116 1,307 1,552 1,820
Capital Expenditure 1,136 1,106 1,066 1,100 1,100
Free Cash Flow (100) 10 241 452 720
Rights Issue 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends Paid 71 90 250 204 254
Other Cash Inflow (Outflow ) 734 (320) (723) (13) 2
Change in net cash 564 (400) (732) 235 469
Net Cash (1,067) (1,467) (2,199) (1,964) (1,496)
Balance Sheet (TL mn)
Tangible Fixed Assets 5,633 7,882 8,136 8,343 8,460
Other Long Term Assets 381 438 1,033 1,076 1,118
Intangibles 77 98 98 98 98
Goodw ill 29 32 32 32 32
Long-term financial assets 573 642 681 722 765
Inventories 1,422 1,669 1,836 1,991 2,159
Trade receivables 1,149 1,405 1,545 1,700 1,870
Cash & equivalents 2,776 3,147 2,659 2,575 2,832
Other current assets 309 349 386 425 467
Total assets 12,350 15,663 16,406 16,961 17,801
Long-term debt 2,889 3,373 3,076 2,876 2,776
Other long-term liabilities 319 476 395 414 434
Short-term debt 954 1,241 1,782 1,663 1,551
Trade payables 658 756 831 902 978
Total Debt 3,843 4,614 4,858 4,539 4,328
Other short-term liabilities 290 314 340 372 407
Total liabilities 5,111 6,160 6,424 6,227 6,147
Minority Interest 1,547 2,036 2,019 2,086 2,164
Total equity 5,692 7,466 7,963 8,648 9,490
Paid-in capital 1,700 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900
Total liabilities & equity 12,350 15,663 16,406 16,961 17,801
Ratios
ROE (%) 7.4 11.0 8.8 10.2 11.5
ROIC (%) 5.6 5.7 5.4 6.5 7.8
Invested Capital 8,005 10,737 11,817 12,306 12,728
Net debt/EBITDA (x) 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.7
Net debt/Equity (%) 18.7 19.7 27.6 22.7 15.8
Capex/Sales (%) 16.5 14.9 13.1 12.3 11.1
Capex/Depreciation (x) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1
EBITDA Margin 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.4 22.9
EBIT Margin 8.1 9.0 9.4 10.9 12.3
Net Margin 6.0 9.7 8.3 9.4 10.6
Valuation Metrics
EV/Sales (x) 0.9x 1.0x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.8x 5.2x 6.3x 5.3x 4.5x
EV/IC (x) 0.7x 0.7x 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x
P/E (x) 10.9x 6.5x 11.9x 9.5x 7.7x
FCF yield (%) -2% 0% 3% 6% 9%
Dividend yield (%) 2% 1% 4% 3% 3%
*based on average Mcap during the year
3
Sise Cam
Source: Company, IS Investment
FIGURE 1: Summary of 3Q16 Consolidated Financials
FIGURE 2: SISE NAV
Sise Cam (TL mn) 3Q16 3Q15 YoY 2Q16 QoQ 9M16 9M15 YoY
Revenues 2.005 1.860 8% 2.128 -6% 6.007 5.389 11%
Gross Margin 30,4% 28,7% 1,7pp 29,0% 1,4pp 30,3% 29,3% 1,0pp
EBIT (*) 210 167 26% 196 7% 600 506 19%
EBIT Margin 10,5% 9,0% 1,5pp 9,2% 1,3pp 10,0% 9,4% 0,6pp
Adjusted EBITDA (**) 409 352 16% 391 5% 1.188 1.046 14%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin 20,4% 18,9% 1,5pp 18,4% 2,0pp 19,8% 19,4% 0,4pp
Net Financial Expenses (-) -34 32 n.m. 28 n.m. -42 -13 n.m.
Net Profit 162 186 -13% 170 -4% 460 566 -19%
Net Margin 8,1% 10,0% -1,9pp 8,0% 0,1pp 7,7% 10,5% -2,8pp
(*) Excludes Prof it (Loss) f rom Subsidiaries and other income/(expense)
(**) Adjusted EBITDA= EBIT (*)+Depreciation+Amortization
(***) Net Financial Expenses includes FX losses/gains booked under other expenses/ income
Ticker
Current
Value
Target Valuation
Method
Flat Glass 785 546 24% 931 647 25%
Trakya Cam TRKCM 69,4 Current Mcap 725 503 22% Target Mcap 871 604 23%
Cayirova Cam 71,9 Book Value 60 43 2% Book Value 60 43 2%
Glass Packaging 361 286 12% 421 333 13%
Anadolu Cam ANACM 79,1 Current Mcap 361 286 12% Target Mcap 421 333 13%
Glassware 635 532 23% 635 532 20%
Pasabahce 84,0 554 465 20% Mult&Tran. Val. 554 465 18%
Camis Ambalaj 100,0 62 62 3% Transaction Value 62 62 2%
Denizli Cam DENCM 26,1 19 5 0% Current Mcap 19 5 0%
Chemicals 1.145 727 32% 1.429 900 34%
Soda Sanayi SODA 61,0 Current Mcap 1.073 655 28% Target Mcap 1.357 828 32%
Camis Madencilik 100,0 Book Value 72 72 3% Transaction Value 72 72 3%
Others 114 102 4% 114 102 4%
Camis Elektrik 39,3 20 8 0% Book Value 20 8 0%
Available for sale assets 40 40 2% Book Value 40 40 2%
Participations 54 54 2% Book Value 54 54 2%
Total Value from Participations 2.192 100% Total Value from Participations 2.515 100%
Listed 1.448 66% Listed 1.771 70%
Unlisted Total 744 34% Unlisted 744 30%
Holding Only Net Cash (Debt) 110 5% Holding Only Net Cash (Debt) 110 4%
Current NAV 2.302 Target NAV 2.625
Premium / (Disc) to Current NAV -9% Premium / (Disc) to Target NAV -20%
Historical Average Discount 0% Historical Average Discount -3%
Current Mcap 2.098 Target Mcap 2.625
all f igures are in US$ mn terms Target Share Price (US$) 1,28
net cash (debt) is as of 9M16 Target Share Price (TL) 4,75
Upside Potential 21%
Business
Segment/Company
Sise Cam NAV Breakdown (US$ mn)
Weight
in NAV
SISE's
StakeTarget Value
Weight
in NAVSISE's Stake
Current Valuation
Method
SISE's
Stake
4
Sise Cam
FIGURE 3: SISE Current NAV Chart
Source: IS Investment
FIGURE 4: SISE Current NAV Chart
Source: IS Investment
Company Close TL Target Mcap mn$
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
SISE 3,94 4,75 2.136 11,9 9,5 7,7 6,3 5,3 4,5
Turkey Avg. 11,9 9,5 7,7 6,3 5,3 4,5
Disc./Prem. -31% -35% -39% -18% -29% -37%
Peer Comp.avg. 17,3 14,6 12,7 7,7 7,4 7,1
Peer.Comp. Company Country Mcap mn$ 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
SGO FP Equity SAINT GOBAIN FRANCE 23.582 18,5 16,1 14,5 8,0 7,5 6,9
5201 JP Equity ASAHI GLASS CO JAPAN 8.586 26,0 19,5 17,4 6,3 5,9 5,7
5202 JP Equity NIPPON SHEET GLA JAPAN 687 14,7 10,7 6,6 6,8 6,7
OI US Equity OWENS-ILLINOIS UNITED STATES 3.066 8,2 7,7 7,0 6,6 6,4 6,2
PPG US Equity PPG INDS INC UNITED STATES 25.510 16,4 15,2 14,0 10,7 10,5 10,2
P/E EV/EBITDA
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%Ja
n-1
6
Ja
n-1
6
Fe
b-1
6
Fe
b-1
6
Fe
b-1
6
Mar-
16
Mar-
16
Ap
r-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
May-1
6
May-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Ju
l-16
Au
g-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Oct-
16
Oct-
16
No
v-1
6
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Premium (Discount) Current NAV
Historical Average
5 Please refer to important disclaimer at the end of this report.
Eye-catching performance in 2016
TRKCM shares outperformed the market by 69% over the last 12 months as
a result of strong operational performance and muted energy expenses. We
expect 2017 to be a another strong period for the company considering the
positive momentum in the flat glass industry. Besides, anti-dumping
measures on flat glass imports from Iran and China continues to support
competitive position. Apart from that, we anticipate solid operational
performance to continue at encapsulated auto glass business. Therefore,
we maintain our OUTPERFORM performance.
Based on its 5.8x 17E EV/EBITDA and 8.2x P/E multiples, the stock trades
at 21% and 44% discounts compared to its international peers.
Top-line growth was remarkable at 38% y-o-y growth driven by full
consolidation of Bulgarian operations, increase in Russian revenues
and material contribution from encapsulation business in 9M16. Excluding
Bulgarian operations, y-o-y revenue growth would be at 10% - out of which
6% coming from the volume increase. In 9M16, revenue contribution of
Russia to consolidated revenue increased to 8% as a consequence of
recovery in Russian flat glass prices. Prices edged up about 30% q-o-q in
the third quarter after the price hike announcements from local producers,
Ruble devaluation also led sales to advance in export regions.
Better prospects to continue in 2017. We estimate top-line to grow by
20% in 2017 driven by price increases, volume growth, increasing
contribution of encapsulated business and contribution of newly acquired
Sangalli. Moreover, EBITDA is expected to increase faster at 27% YoY in
2017 thanks to the favourable energy expenses and reduced risk of cheap
flat glass imports to domestic market.
We estimate c.65% of the revenues are generated from basic glass
sales to the construction sector and c.54% from Turkey. Accordingly,
the operations predominantly depend on the level of growth at the
construction industry in Turkey. Domestic flat glass sales were strong in
2016 thanks to the pent up demand from construction sector following the
elimination of the political uncertainty in 2015. Demographics, urban
transformation and infrastructure projects will continue to be the main
growth drivers in medium to long term. Therefore, we estimate c.4-5%
growth in Turkey construction industry in the medium term.
Trakya Cam finalized the acquisition of Italian flat glass producer
Sangalli Vetro Porto Nogaro at EUR85mn. We find the acquisition price
favourable compared to 220K tons capacity addition usually requires
c.EUR160mn in flat glass industry. Sangalli Vetro Porto Nogaro has c.220K
tons flat glass production capacity vs 2.5 mn tons of Trakya Cam. We deem
that the acquisition will strengthen the company’s position in European
market.
Risks: Additional restrictions on cheap glass imports from Russia and
EU and better than expected margin delivery and the completion of targeted
are the major catalysts. Main risks are lower than expected growth at
construction activity and possible downturn in the domestic market due to
prolonged period of political/geopolitical uncertainty.
Company Update
Upside Potential 8%
OUTPERFORM
Trakya Cam Equity / Mid Cap. / Glass
13/01/2017
+90 212 350 25 52
Ilyas Safa Urganci
Ticker TRKCM
Stock Data TL US$
Price at 12 01 2017 3.00 0.78
Target Price 3.24 0.94
Prev.Target Price 3.24 0.94
Mcap (mn) 2,790 725
Float Mcap (mn) 863 224
Avg.Daily Volume (3M, mn) 7.2 2.1
No. of Shares Outstanding (mn) 930
Free Float (%) 30.92
Multiples 2016E 2017E 2018E
P/E 5.7 8.2 7.2
P/BV 0.8 0.7 0.7
EV/EBITDA 7.4 5.8 5.3
Price Perf. (%) 1 Mn 3 Mn 12 Mn
TL 5 20 89
US$ -4 -4 48
Relative to BIST-100 -1 14 69
Price / Relative Price
020406080100120140160180200
1.201.401.601.802.002.202.402.602.803.003.20
01/1
3
06/1
3
11/1
3
04/1
4
09/1
4
02/1
5
07/1
5
12/1
5
05/1
6
10/1
6
TRKCM Close(LHS) Relative to BIST100
52 Week Range (Close TL) 1.74 3.00
Foreign Share (%)
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
18/1
0
01/1
1
15/1
1
29/1
1
13/1
2
27/1
2
10/0
1
Foreign Share (%)3M Average
6
Trakya Cam
Summary of Key Financials (TL mn) 2 3 4 5 6
Income Statement (TL mn) 2013A* 2014A* 2015A* 2016E 2017E 2018E
Revenues 2,019 2,118 2,878 3,448 3,716
EBITDA 323 274 498 629 690
Depreciation & Amortisation 151 176 183 210 221
EBIT 172 98 316 419 469
Other income (expense), net 56 67 378 79 85
Financial expenses, net (50) (18) (100) (90) (90)
Minority Interests 13 10 18 13 14
Income before tax 316 197 594 408 464
Taxation on Income (20) (28) (85) (58) (66)
Net income 283 159 491 338 383
Cash Flow Statement (TL mn)
Net Income 283 159 491 338 383
Depreciation & Amortisation 151 176 183 210 221
Indemnity Provisions 8 12 0 0 0
Change in Working Capital (16) (121) (155) (147) (69)
Cash Flow from Operations 425 226 519 400 536
Capital Expenditure 418 286 591 298 311
Free Cash Flow 7 (60) (72) 102 225
Rights Issue 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends Paid 29 36 93 102 169
Other Cash Inflow (Outflow ) 201 (505) 127 47 60
Change in net cash 180 (601) (38) 47 116
Net Cash (115) (716) (754) (708) (591)
Balance Sheet (TL mn)
Tangible Fixed Assets 1,523 2,680 3,090 3,178 3,268
Other Long Term Assets 122 123 550 514 555
Intangibles 22 20 18 18 18
Goodw ill 20 23 0 0 0
Long-term financial assets 837 681 281 301 322
Inventories 320 440 608 715 764
Trade receivables 317 402 879 1,054 1,135
Cash & equivalents 1,127 1,170 1,089 1,305 1,406
Other current assets 95 88 96 115 124
Total assets 4,384 5,627 6,612 7,200 7,593
Long-term debt 976 1,503 1,406 1,349 1,300
Other long-term liabilities 157 217 151 167 174
Short-term debt 266 383 438 663 698
Trade payables 178 261 752 886 948
Total Debt 1,242 1,886 1,844 2,013 1,998
Other short-term liabilities 270 123 341 397 420
Total liabilities 1,847 2,488 3,088 3,462 3,539
Minority Interest 205 249 268 280 295
Total equity 2,332 2,889 3,524 3,738 4,054
Paid-in capital 739 895 930 997 1,067
Total liabilities & equity 4,384 5,627 6,612 7,200 7,593
Ratios
ROE (%) 12.6 6.1 15.3 9.3 9.8
ROIC (%) 6.7 2.8 6.5 7.5 8.0
Invested Capital 2,127 3,403 4,393 4,593 4,793
Net debt/EBITDA (x) 0.4 2.6 1.513 1.1 0.9
Net debt/Equity (%) 4.9 24.8 21.4 18.9 14.6
Capex/Sales (%) 20.71 13.50 20.55 8.64 8.36
Capex/Depreciation (x) 2.8 1.6 3.2 1.4 1.4
EBITDA Margin 16.0 13.0 17.3 18.2 18.6
EBIT Margin 8.5 4.6 11.0 12.2 12.6
Net Margin 14.0 7.5 17.1 9.8 10.3
Valuation Metrics
EV/Sales (x) 1.1x 1.3x 1.3x 1.1x 1.0x
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6x 9.7x 7.4x 5.9x 5.3x
EV/IC (x) 1.0x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x
P/E (x) 6.5x 11.7x 5.7x 8.3x 7.3x
FCF yield (%) 0% -3% -3% 4% 8%
Dividend yield (%) 2% 2% 5% 4% 6%
*based on average Mcap during the year
7
Trakya Cam
Source: Company, IS Investment
FIGURE 5: DCF Summary
FIGURE 7: Peer Comparison
Source: Company, IS Investment
Source: Company, IS Investment
FIGURE 6: Summary of 3Q16 Consolidated Financials
Trakya Cam (TL mn) 3Q16 3Q15 YoY 2Q16 QoQ 9M16 9M15 YoY
Revenues 704 507 39% 723 -3% 2.054 1.493 38%
Gross Margin 28,5% 24,9% 3,7pp 29,3% -0,8pp 29,2% 25,8% 3,3pp
EBIT (*) 62 17 264% 59 4% 164 68 141%
EBIT Margin 8,8% 3,3% 5,4pp 8,2% 0,5pp 8,0% 4,5% 3,4pp
Adjusted EBITDA (**) 124 60 106% 119 4% 348 200 74%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin 17,6% 11,9% 5,7pp 16,5% 1,1pp 16,9% 13,4% 3,6pp
Net Financial Expenses (-) -14 5 n.m. -15 n.m. -33 1 n.m.
Net Profit 66 32 106% 321 -80% 452 103 341%
Net Margin 9,3% 6,3% 3,0pp 44,4% -35,1pp 22,0% 6,9% 15,1pp
(*) Excludes Prof it (Loss) f rom Subsidiaries and other income/(expense)
(**) Adjusted EBITDA= EBIT (*)+Depreciation+Amortization
(***) Net Financial Expenses includes FX losses/gains booked under other expenses/ income
Trakya Cam (TL mn) 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Revenues 2,878 3,448 3,716 3,913 4,098 4,279 4,475 4,692 4,938 5,218 5,514
Revenue growth 36% 20% 8% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6%
EBIT 319 421 466 491 512 541 569 596 620 636 621
EBITDA 501 630 687 757 804 857 914 973 1,036 1,099 1,137
EBITDA Margin 17.4% 18.3% 18.5% 19.3% 19.6% 20.0% 20.4% 20.7% 21.0% 21.1% 20.6%
Change in Working Capital (92) (130) (60) (55) (47) (46) (50) (56) (65) (74) (79)
Capital Expenditures (271) (299) (294) (346) (359) (371) (385) (402) (425) (455) (487)
Tax (64) (84) (93) (98) (102) (108) (114) (119) (124) (127) (124)
Free Cash Flow 75 117 239 257 295 332 365 396 422 443 447
Discounted FCF 75 104 188 180 185 185 184 178 169 162 146
PV of Discounted FCF 1,699
Terminal Growth 4%
PV of TV 1,807
Net Cash (Debt) 9M16 (896)
Participations @ 20%discount 326
Minority Interest (246)
12-Month Target Equity Value 3,017
Price Target (TL) 3.24
Upside 8%
Company Close TL Target Mcap mn$
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
TRKCM 3,00 3,24 736 5,7 8,3 7,3 7,4 5,9 5,3
Turkey Avg. 5,7 8,3 7,3 7,4 5,9 5,3
Disc./Prem. -67% -44% -43% -4% -21% -25%
Peer Comp.avg. 17,27 14,64 12,72 7,68 7,44 7,13
Peer.Comp. Company Country Mcap mn$ 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
SGO FP Equity SAINT GOBAIN FRANCE 23.582 18,5 16,1 14,5 8,0 7,5 6,9
5201 JP Equity ASAHI GLASS CO JAPAN 8.586 26,0 19,5 17,4 6,3 5,9 5,7
5202 JP Equity NIPPON SHEET GLA JAPAN 687 14,7 10,7 6,6 6,8 6,7
OI US Equity OWENS-ILLINOIS UNITED STATES 3.066 8,2 7,7 7,0 6,6 6,4 6,2
PPG US Equity PPG INDS INC UNITED STATES 25.510 16,4 15,2 14,0 10,7 10,5 10,2
P/E EV/EBITDA
8 Please refer to important disclaimer at the end of this report.
Genie in the bottle
Despite the doldrums in Turkey with increased competition and macro
headwinds in Russia over the past two years, Anadolu Cam managed
to improve its operational profitability through a series of strategic
steps taken by the management. Accordingly, Anadolu Cam had
shown a remarkable improvement in operational performance,
recording 15% YoY top-line growth in TL terms along with 20%
increase in EBITDA in 9M16, driven by volume growth (+7%), sales
price increases, higher contribution from exports and change in
product mix towards higher value added products. We expect the
strong momentum to continue, forecasting 13% top-line and 14%
EBITDA growth in 2017 as improved prospects for the glass packaging
business both in domestic and export markets are expected to be
sustained. Therefore, we calculate a 12 month target Mcap of TL1.6bn
for Anadolu Cam, corresponding to TL3.62/share target price, implying
16% upside potential. Accordingly, we re-initiate our OUTPERFORM
recommendation.
Based on its 5.7x 17E and 5.1x 18E EV/EBITDA multiples, the stock
trades 18% and 22% discounts compared to its international peers’
average of 6.9x and 6.6x, respectively.
Consensus estimates likely to move higher. Our 2017 revenues and
EBITDA estimates are 6% and 7% higher than Bloomberg consensus
numbers. Moreover, our net income estimate is 9% higher than Bloomberg
consensus estimate. It seems that, market estimates are not revised yet
following the strong operational performance in 9M16. Therefore, imminent
upward revisions in estimates could be a catalyst for the stock.
Competitive pressure eased in domestic market. We believe that the
competitive pressure has diminished as the additional supply created by the
investments of Park Cam has been absorbed by growing domestic demand
(+11%). The initial market share losses at mineral water segment are not
likely be replicated in other segments due to rival’s insufficient production
flexibility. Besides, the competitive power of Anadolu Cam is significantly
higher, considering its diverse product range and ability to produce all type
of colourful/colourless glass bottles.
Exports to escalate both from Turkey and Russia. Export volumes
picked up sharply during 2014-2016 as a result of marked decline in local
currencies (both TL and Rubble) and favourable transportation costs. The
share of exports has reached to 10% of gross revenues in Turkey and 15%
in Russia in 9M16. The company strategically targets to increase the share
of exports to 20% over the coming years in both regions.
Risks: Aggressive capacity increase investments by local competitor
Park Cam in Turkey, leading to price competition, sharper than expected
natural gas price hike due to increase in oil prices, higher transportation
costs and sharper appreciation of TL and Rubble against hard currencies
hurting the profitability of exports and further pressure by the government
on alcohol consumption in Russia might be listed as the possible risks to
our recommendation.
Company Update
Upside Potential 16%
OUTPERFORM
Anadolu Cam Equity / Mid Cap. / Glass
13/01/2017
+90 212 350 25 52
Ilyas Safa Urganci
Ticker ANACM
Stock Data TL US$
Price at 12 01 2017 3.13 0.81
Target Price 3.62 0.95
Prev.Target Price 3.62 0.95
Mcap (mn) 1,390 361
Float Mcap (mn) 297 77
Avg.Daily Volume (3M, mn) 4.3 1.3
No. of Shares Outstanding (mn) 444
Free Float (%) 21.40
Multiples 2016E 2017E 2018E
P/E 3.1 13.3 11.3
P/BV 0.8 0.7 0.7
EV/EBITDA 6.6 5.7 5.1
Price Perf. (%) 1 Mn 3 Mn 12 Mn
TL 18 48 84
US$ 8 19 44
Relative to BIST-100 11 42 65
Price / Relative Price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1.20
1.70
2.20
2.70
3.20
3.70
01/1
3
06/1
3
11/1
3
04/1
4
09/1
4
02/1
5
07/1
5
12/1
5
05/1
6
10/1
6
ANACM Close(LHS) Relative to BIST100
52 Week Range (Close TL) 1.75 3.13
Foreign Share (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
18/1
0
01/1
1
15/1
1
29/1
1
13/1
2
27/1
2
10/0
1
Foreign Share (%)3M Average
9
Anadolu Cam
Summary of Key Financials (TL mn) 2 3 4 5 6
Income Statement (TL mn) 2013A* 2014A* 2015A* 2016E 2017E 2018E
Revenues 1,555 1,552 1,727 1,958 2,143
EBITDA 248 287 332 382 425
Depreciation & Amortisation 223 215 234 269 294
EBIT 25 72 98 113 131
Other income (expense), net (0) 20 381 30 32
Financial expenses, net (152) (171) 18 (18) (18)
Minority Interests (88) (20) 10 10 10
Income before tax 12 7 497 125 144
Taxation on Income 2 24 (40) (10) (12)
Net income 102 52 447 105 123
Cash Flow Statement (TL mn)
Net Income 102 52 447 105 123
Depreciation & Amortisation 223 215 234 269 294
Indemnity Provisions 5 12 0 0 0
Change in Working Capital 46 (118) 144 (33) (33)
Cash Flow from Operations 375 161 826 340 383
Capital Expenditure 221 323 225 225 391
Free Cash Flow 154 (162) 601 115 (8)
Rights Issue 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends Paid 29 0 0 27 26
Other Cash Inflow (Outflow ) (59) (1) (332) (10) (12)
Change in net cash 67 (163) 269 78 (46)
Net Cash (695) (858) (589) (511) (557)
Balance Sheet (TL mn)
Tangible Fixed Assets 1,170 1,712 1,919 1,868 1,965
Other Long Term Assets 188 237 239 236 239
Intangibles 0 1 1 1 1
Goodw ill 2 2 0 0 0
Long-term financial assets 384 381 115 113 113
Inventories 297 315 496 546 595
Trade receivables 195 285 332 367 401
Cash & equivalents 558 677 779 859 940
Other current assets 246 141 100 110 120
Total assets 3,040 3,750 3,980 4,101 4,374
Long-term debt 996 910 848 832 982
Other long-term liabilities 59 135 136 133 133
Short-term debt 257 624 520 539 515
Trade payables 147 137 510 561 611
Total Debt 1,253 1,535 1,368 1,370 1,497
Other short-term liabilities 58 197 33 32 32
Total liabilities 1,517 2,004 2,046 2,095 2,273
Minority Interest 88 106 110 110 112
Total equity 1,435 1,641 1,824 1,894 1,989
Paid-in capital 444 444 453 444 444
Total liabilities & equity 3,040 3,750 3,980 4,101 4,374
Ratios
ROE (%) 7.6 3.4 25.8 5.6 6.3
ROIC (%) 1.1 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.2
Invested Capital 1,704 2,412 2,477 2,457 2,590
Net debt/EBITDA (x) 2.8 3.0 1.773 1.3 1.3
Net debt/Equity (%) 48.4 52.3 32.3 27.0 28.0
Capex/Sales (%) 14.21 20.81 13.03 11.49 18.25
Capex/Depreciation (x) 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.3
EBITDA Margin 15.9 18.5 19.2 19.5 19.8
EBIT Margin 1.6 4.6 5.7 5.8 6.1
Net Margin 6.5 3.3 25.9 5.3 5.7
Valuation Metrics
EV/Sales (x) 1.0x 1.0x 1.3x 1.1x 1.0x
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.3x 5.5x 6.6x 5.7x 5.1x
EV/IC (x) 0.9x 0.7x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x
P/E (x) 10.5x 14.9x 3.1x 13.3x 11.3x
FCF yield (%) 15% -21% 43% 8% -1%
Dividend yield (%) 4% 0% 0% 2% 2%
*based on average Mcap during the year
10
Anadolu Cam
FIGURE 9: Peer Comparison
Source: Bloomberg, IS Investment
Source: Company, IS Investment
FIGURE 8: Summary of 3Q16 Consolidated Financials
Anadolu Cam (TL mn) 3Q16 3Q15 YoY 2Q16 QoQ 9M16 9M15 YoY
Revenues 491 421 17% 489 0% 1.326 1.155 15%
Gross Margin 23,5% 21,6% 1,9pp 23,8% -0,3pp 22,7% 22,0% 0,7pp
EBIT (*) 52 27 89% 35 47% 90 68 32%
EBIT Margin 10,6% 6,5% 4,1pp 7,2% 3,4pp 6,8% 5,9% 0,9pp
Adjusted EBITDA (**) 113 82 39% 96 18% 269 224 20%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin 23,1% 19,4% 3,7pp 19,6% 3,4pp 20,3% 19,4% 0,9pp
Net Financial Expenses (-) -14 -34 n.m. 26 n.m. -2 -92 n.m.
Net Profit 37 8 355% 129 -72% 419 125 237%
Net Margin 7,4% 1,9% 5,5pp 26,4% -19,0pp 31,6% 10,8% 20,8pp
(*) Excludes Prof it (Loss) f rom Subsidiaries and other income/(expense)
(**) Adjusted EBITDA= EBIT (*)+Depreciation+Amortization
(***) Net Financial Expenses includes FX losses/gains booked under other expenses/ income
Company Close TL Target Mcap mn$
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
ANACM 3,13 3,62 367 3,1 13,3 11,3 6,6 5,7 5,1
Turkey Avg. 3,1 13,3 11,3 6,6 5,7 5,1
Disc./Prem. -79% 15% -6% -11% -18% -22%
Peer Comp.avg. 14,87 11,51 12,09 7,35 6,94 6,62
Peer.Comp. Company Country Mcap mn$ 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
GXI GR Equity GERRESHEIMER AG GERMANY 2.092 16,9 16,1 14,9 10,0 9,7 9,3
FRIGO GA Equity FRIGOGLASS SA GREECE 7 0,5 5,7 6,7
ZV IM Equity ZIGNAGO VETRO SP ITALY 471 17,4 15,8 14,7 7,7 7,0 6,7
VITROA MM Equity VITRO SAB-SER A MEXICO 1.415 11,4 8,5 6,8 5,4 3,4 2,8
VID SM Equity VIDRALA SPAIN 1.191 18,4 16,4 15,0 9,6 9,3 8,9
VET SW Equity VETROPACK HOL-BRSWITZERLAND 699 16,9 15,5 14,2 6,5 6,1 5,8
OI US Equity OWENS-ILLINOIS UNITED STATES 3.066 8,2 7,7 7,0 6,6 6,4 6,2
P/E EV/EBITDA
11 Please refer to important disclaimer at the end of this report.
A synthetic hedge against TL weakening
We reiterate our OUTPERFORM recommendation with 6.27TL/share
target price for SODA.
Soda is the main beneficiary of TL weakness as 78% of the consolidated
sales (USD:47%, EUR:32%) are hard-currency denominated while the ratio
is 46% in cost of goods sold. In addition to that, the company carries
USD191mn and EUR41mn long f-x position on its balance sheet. Note that,
10% depreciation of TL against USD leads c.10% increase in TL
denominated target share price of Soda, ceteris paribus. Moreover, 10%
depreciation of TL increases the bottom-line by TL71mn, corresponding
16% of our 2016 net income estimate.
The stock trades at 24% and 35% discount at 5.4x 2017E EV/EBITDA
and 7.5x P/E multiples vs its peers average of 7.4x And 11.9x.
Soda ash demand grows c.3% at a steady pace. Glass markets, which
account half of the demand, are expected to remain dominant end use for
soda ash, while chemicals and detergents will also remain important
downstream consumers. We estimate c.2 mn tons capacity additions is
required in the market considering 56mn tons total market size and 3%
annual growth rate.
Soda ash prices are supported by favourable supply/demand.
European soda ash prices have risen c.5% average since 2010 as a result
of growing demand to the product and the capacity closures in Europe (1.5
mn tons capacity were shut down only in Europe). In 2016, the prices were
flat on USD basis while c.3% decline is expected in 2017 on USD basis.
What will be the impact of large capacity expansion projects of Ciner?
The large capacity expansion projects of Ciner Group (3.0 mn tons),
expected to come online between 2017-2019, might lead to a decline in
soda ash prices. We have already incorporated c.13% decline in the
assumptions of soda ash prices over the next 3 years in order to reflect the
prospective risk. However, we believe that Soda Sanayii is positioned well
in competitors thanks to i) access to key inputs such as brine and limestone,
ii) port access in Mersin, iii) product composition (ability to produce heavy
and light soda) and iv) past and ongoing investments to modernize
production process and drive down costs.
New boiler investment is expected to be completed until 2016YE. In
order to lower energy expenses, an energy efficiency investment including a
new boiler configuration with US$50mn amount is projected to be
completed by the end 2016. After the completion of the investment, c.5-10%
cost savings is expected to be achieved.
Sustainable dividend payer with strong B/S. We estimate Soda to
distribute 50% of its net income in 2017, implying 7% dividend yield.
Company Update
Upside Potential 14%
OUTPERFORM
Soda SanayiiEquity / Mid Cap. / Chemicals
13/01/2017
+90 212 350 25 52
Ilyas Safa Urganci
Ticker SODA
Stock Data TL US$
Price at 12 01 2017 5.51 1.43
Target Price 6.27 1.81
Prev.Target Price 6.27 1.81
Mcap (mn) 4,133 1,073
Float Mcap (mn) 1,624 422
Avg.Daily Volume (3M, mn) 18.3 5.4
No. of Shares Outstanding (mn) 750
Free Float (%) 39.31
Multiples 2016E 2017E 2018E
P/E 7.6 7.5 7.9
P/BV 1.6 1.4 1.2
EV/EBITDA 6.7 5.4 5.7
Price Perf. (%) 1 Mn 3 Mn 12 Mn
TL 12 27 61
US$ 2 2 26
Relative to BIST-100 6 21 44
Price / Relative Price
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
01/1
3
06/1
3
11/1
3
04/1
4
09/1
4
02/1
5
07/1
5
12/1
5
05/1
6
10/1
6
SODA Close(LHS) Relative to BIST100
52 Week Range (Close TL) 3.74 5.58
Foreign Share (%)
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
18/1
0
01/1
1
15/1
1
29/1
1
13/1
2
27/1
2
10/0
1
Foreign Share (%)3M Average
12
Soda Sanayii
Summary of Key Financials (TL mn)
Summary of Key Financials (TL mn) 2 3 4 5 6
Income Statement (TL mn) 2013A* 2014A* 2015A* 2016E 2017E 2018E
Revenues 1,607 1,772 2,117 2,334 2,430
EBITDA 352 411 553 654 632
Depreciation & Amortisation 93 91 104 114 119
EBIT 259 320 449 540 513
Other income (expense), net 12 38 78 67 75
Financial expenses, net 21 102 116 22 12
Minority Interests 3 7 8 8 8
Income before tax 444 510 643 629 600
Taxation on Income (57) (69) (87) (85) (81)
Net income 384 434 548 536 511
Cash Flow Statement (TL mn)
Net Income 384 434 548 536 511
Depreciation & Amortisation 93 91 104 114 119
Indemnity Provisions 5 4 25 27 29
Change in Working Capital 140 (20) (71) (37) (14)
Cash Flow from Operations 622 511 605 641 645
Capital Expenditure 104 227 258 389 369
Free Cash Flow 518 284 347 251 276
Rights Issue 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends Paid 46 60 240 274 268
Other Cash Inflow (Outflow ) (15) (36) 146 80 77
Change in net cash 457 188 253 58 86
Net Cash 364 551 804 862 947
Balance Sheet (TL mn)
Tangible Fixed Assets 728 1,086 1,240 1,516 1,765
Other Long Term Assets 49 35 312 343 374
Intangibles 1 5 5 5 5
Goodw ill 7 7 8 8 7
Long-term financial assets 226 245 0 0 0
Inventories 174 179 207 221 237
Trade receivables 255 314 391 432 449
Cash & equivalents 649 859 881 978 1,073
Other current assets 34 81 45 49 51
Total assets 2,121 2,812 3,089 3,551 3,963
Long-term debt 227 235 176 176 176
Other long-term liabilities 22 24 26 28 30
Short-term debt 58 72 (100) (60) (50)
Trade payables 178 223 257 275 294
Total Debt 286 307 77 117 126
Other short-term liabilities 70 72 96 101 106
Total liabilities 554 627 456 520 557
Minority Interest 19 28 28 28 28
Total equity 1,548 2,156 2,633 3,031 3,407
Paid-in capital 503 660 750 860 967
Total liabilities & equity 2,121 2,812 3,089 3,551 3,964
Ratios
ROE (%) 27.8 23.5 22.9 18.9 15.9
ROIC (%) 19.2 21.1 21.8 20.9 17.2
Invested Capital 1,028 1,396 1,899 2,241 2,537
Net debt/EBITDA (x) -1.0 -1.3 -1.454 -1.3 -1.5
Net debt/Equity (%) -23.5 -25.6 -30.5 -28.4 -27.8
Capex/Sales (%) 6.47 12.81 12.21 16.68 15.18
Capex/Depreciation (x) 1.1 2.5 2.5 3.4 3.1
EBITDA Margin 21.9 23.2 26.1 28.0 26.0
EBIT Margin 16.1 18.1 21.2 23.1 21.1
Net Margin 23.9 24.5 25.9 23.0 21.0
Valuation Metrics
EV/Sales (x) 0.8x 1.0x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.7x 4.3x 6.6x 5.6x 5.8x
EV/IC (x) 1.3x 1.3x 1.9x 1.6x 1.4x
P/E (x) 2.9x 3.9x 7.5x 7.7x 8.1x
FCF yield (%) 47% 17% 8% 6% 7%
Dividend yield (%) 3% 2% 7% 7% 6%
*based on average Mcap during the year
13
Soda Sanayii
Source: IS Investment and Bloomberg
FIGURE 10: Summary of 9M16 Financials
FIGURE 11: Peer Comparison
Source: Company Financials
Soda Sanayii (TL mn) 3Q16 3Q15 YoY 2Q16 QoQ 9M16 9M15 YoY
Revenues 492 462 6% 488 1% 1.456 1.295 12%
Gross Margin 31,1% 27,8% 3,2pp 29,4% 1,7pp 29,4% 26,7% 2,7pp
EBIT (*) 113 90 26% 96 17% 301 232 30%
EBIT Margin 22,9% 19,4% 3,5pp 19,8% 3,2pp 20,7% 17,9% 2,8pp
Adjusted EBITDA (**) 136 113 21% 119 14% 372 300 24%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin 27,6% 24,4% 3,2pp 24,4% 3,2pp 25,6% 23,2% 2,4pp
Net Financial Expenses (-) 18 73 -76% 17 7% 23 126 -82%
Net Profit 133 162 -18% 111 19% 330 366 -10%
Net Margin 27,0% 35,0% -8,1pp 22,8% 4,2pp 22,7% 28,2% -5,5pp
Company Close TL Target Mcap mn$
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
SODA 5,51 6,27 1.082 7,5 7,7 8,1 6,6 5,6 5,8
Turkey Avg. 7,5 7,7 8,1 6,6 5,6 5,8
Disc./Prem. -43% -35% -29% -24% -24% -22%
Peer Comp.avg. 13,23 11,92 11,42 8,72 7,43 7,43
Peer.Comp. Company Country Mcap mn$ 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
SOLB BB Equity SOLVAY SA-A BELGIUM 10.930 13,7 12,6 11,9 6,6 6,3 6,1
TTCH IN Equity TATA Chemicals INDIA 1.929 18,5 14,4 11,9 10,4 9,5 9,0
CIE PW Equity CIECH POLAND 809 7,1 8,5 9,6 5,5 6,1 6,7
TROX US Equity TRONOX UNITED STATES 1.444 14,8 9,2 9,6
CINR US Equity CINER RESOURCES UNITED STATES 607 13,6 12,2 12,2 6,2 6,0 5,7
P/E EV/EBITDA
14
Soda Sanayii
Source: IS Investment and Bloomberg
FIGURE 12: DCF Summary
SODA SANAYİİ DCF (US$ mn) 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E TV
Revenues ($mn) 595 556 538 516 516 516 516 516 516 516 516
EBITDA (Soda ash+chromium) 182 181 162 142 141 140 139 138 138 136 134
EBITDA Margin (Soda ash+chromium) 30.6% 32.5% 30.2% 27.4% 27.3% 27.1% 26.9% 26.8% 26.7% 26.4% 26.0%
EBITDA (Consolidated with electricity sales) 182 180 162 149 149 148 147 146 145 143 142
EBITDA Margin (Consolidated) 26.1% 28.0% 26.0% 25.0% 24.8% 24.6% 24.5% 24.4% 24.3% 24.0% 23.6%
Change in Working Capital 7 9 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Capital Expenditures (85) (85) (74) (57) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32)
Tax 29 29 26 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 20
Free Cash Flow 61 58 60 60 84 83 83 82 82 80 79 79
Discounted FCF 61 53 51 46 59 53 49 44 40 36 32 962
PV of Discounted FCF 478
Terminal Growth 1%
PV of TV 362
Net Cash (Debt) 3Q16 168
Participations 70
Financial Investments 19
Soda-only EV 1,096
Power Plant 136
12-Month Target Equity Value 1,292
Price Target (TL) 6.27
Current Mcap 1,009
Upside Potential 14%
15
This report has been prepared by “İş Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.” (İş Investment) solely for the information of clients of İş Investment.
Opinions and estimates contained in this material are not under the scope of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services
are given according to the investment advisory contract, signed between the intermediary institutions, portfolio management companies,
investment banks and the clients. Opinions and recommendations contained in this report reflect the personal views of the analysts who
supplied them. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may involve significant risk, may be illiquid and may not be
suitable for all investors. Investors must make their decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial positions and
with the assistance of independent advisors, as they believe necessary.
The information presented in this report has been obtained from public institutions, such as Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), Capital
Market Board of Turkey (CMB), Republic of Turkey, Prime Ministry State Institute of Statistics (SIS), Central Bank of the Republic of
Turkey (CBT); various media institutions, and other sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made, nor is
its accuracy or completeness guaranteed.
All information in these pages remains the property of İş Investment and as such may not be disseminated, copied, altered or changed in
any way, nor may this information be printed for distribution purposes or forwarded as electronic attachments without the prior written
permission of İş Investment. (www.isinvestment.com)
This research report can also be accessed by subscribers of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.
Soda Sanayii
FIGURE 13: Revision in our estimates
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
GDP grow th, % 6,1 2,5 3,0 3,5 3,5 3,5 3,5 3,5
Consumption Grow th, % 5,5 4,1 4,2 3,0 3,0 3,0 3,0 3,0
Export Grow th, % 6,6 1,3 2,0 3,5 3,5 3,5 3,5 3,5
CPI Inflation (e.o.p.), % 8,8 8,5 9,0 8,0 7,5 7,0 7,0 7,0
CPI Inflation (average), % 7,7 7,8 8,8 8,5 7,8 7,3 7,0 7,0
CAD, % of GDP 3,7 4,3 5,0 5,0 5,0 5,0 5,0 5,0
Policy Rate, % 7,5 8,0 8,8 9,3 8,3 8,0 8,0 8,0
Money market rates % 10,3 8,3 9,5 10,0 9,0 8,5 8,5 8,0
TL Risk Free Rate (10YRS), % 10,7 11,4 11,5 11,0 10,5 10,0 10,0 10,0
US$ Risk Free Rate (30YRS), % 5,7 6,7 7,0 6,5 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,0
TL/$ (average) 2,72 3,02 3,71 3,98 4,16 4,31 4,45 4,62
TL/$ (eop) 2,91 3,53 3,88 4,07 4,24 4,38 4,52 4,72
TL/€ (average) 3,02 3,34 3,83 4,08 4,32 4,57 4,83 5,08
TL/€ (eop) 3,18 3,69 3,96 4,20 4,45 4,69 4,97 5,19
Euro/dollar parity (average) 1,11 1,11 1,03 1,03 1,04 1,06 1,09 1,10
Euro/Dollar parity (eop) 1,09 1,05 1,02 1,03 1,05 1,07 1,10 1,10