preventing carbon lock-in david g. hawkins, nrdc robert h. williams, princeton january 2005
Post on 22-Dec-2015
217 views
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Preventing Carbon Lock-in
David G. Hawkins, NRDCRobert H. Williams, Princeton
January 2005
![Page 2: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Investments Today Drive Impacts Tomorrow
• Temperature forcing drives impacts
• Concentrations drive forcing
• Emissions drive concentrations
• Investments drive emissions
![Page 3: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Carbon Deficit Spending—Do the Math
• Energy carbon emissions in year 2000 = 6.3 billion metric tons
• Removal to oceans, soils, trees = 3.1 billion metric tons
• Net buildup in air = 3.2 billion metric tons
0
2
4
6
8
CarbonIn
CarbonOut
CarbonDebt
Annual Carbon Debt
![Page 4: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Emissions Drive Concentrations
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
450 550 650 750
ppm
Billion
ton
nes C
arb
on
19
00
-21
00
![Page 5: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
The Budget is Disappearing
Cumulative carbon emissions 1900-2100 (GtC)
Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization
Today
531283
2010
375 439
2020
322492
2030
638 176
2040
809 5
Spent
Remaining
![Page 6: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Biggest Emitters 2000-2025
24%
15%
12%6%4%
4%
35%USAChinaWest EuropeRussiaI ndiaJ apanOther
Top six = 66%
Cumulative CO2 Emissions 2000-2025, EIA, IEA 2002
![Page 7: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Carbon Lock-inNew Fossil Units 2003-2030
1,391
1,883
237
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
GW
Coal Gas Oil
Source: IEA, WEO2004
Lifetime CarbonCoal = 145 GtCGas = 63 GtCOil = 2 GtC
![Page 8: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
New Fossil Plant EmissionsRival Historic Totals
210
149134
0
50
100
150
200
250
1751-1974 All Sources
1975-2000 All Sources
New FossilPlants
LifetimeEmissions
Billion tonnes Carbon
Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, WEO 2004
![Page 9: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
New Coal Build by Decade
0
200
400
600
800
GW
Coa
l
Other Developing 43 90 128
India 16 48 79
China 150 168 226
Transition 1 11 19
OECD 12 184 218
2003-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030
Source: IEA,WEO 2004
221
500
670
Incremental new coal capacity by decade
![Page 10: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Fund CCS for New Coal in Developing Countries
• Industrialized countries (Annex II, OECD, G8, G8+) agree to finance incremental costs of IGCC with CCS for 10 years (2011-2020) in developing countries.
• Ramp in coverage: 2011=20% of new build; 20% increase each year.
• Cover full incremental cost of electricity (levelized capital and operating costs) for IGCC/CCS to 2020.
![Page 11: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Funding CCS for New Coal in Developing Countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GW
Conventional PC
I GCC/ CCS
New CoalCapacity fromIEA, WEO 2004
251 GW out of306 GW usesCCS with fund
![Page 12: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Costs of CCS Fund• Levelized discounted costs = $6.2 billion/yr• Compare 2003 G7 ODA = $50 billion• But compare GEF = $3 billion for four yrs.
Costs derived from Foster Wheeler Study for IEA GHG Programme, May 2003
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
n $
/year
Annual Outlays Levelized Discounted Payments
![Page 13: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
What About Industrialized Countries?
Applying the same CCS deployment schedule in industrialized countries results in 160GW of CCS capacity (out of 200GW coal forecast) with added costs of $3.9 billion per year.
![Page 14: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Costs in Context• $6.2 billion per yr = 0.5 mills/kwh if applied
to OECD generation. ($10.1 billion global program = 0.8 mills/kwh)
• Combining CCS fund with efficiency initiative can reduce costs and emissions more. If demand growth is cut from 3%/yr to 2.5%, CCS LDC program costs drop to $5.1 billion per yr.
• Enables avoidance of 36 billion tonnes carbon emissions just from initial covered capacity; much more with spillover benefits.
![Page 15: Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d775503460f94a59be3/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Warming Won’t Wait. Will We?