Presidential ElectionsPOLS 125: Political Parties &

Elections

“Any American who is prepared to run for president should automatically, by definition, be disqualified from ever doing so.” 

— Gore Vidal

Electoral College Tally, 2012

Habemus Papam!

ELECTORAL COLLEGE (First Monday after second Wednesday in December)

HOUSE

SENATE

Voters cast ballots for

electors

Electors vote for president and vice president respectively

Top presidential candidate receives 270 votes or more

Vice presidential candidate receives 270 votes or more

President elected

Vice President elected

If top presidential and vice presidential candidates receive fewer than 270 electoral votes, decisions are made in the House and Senate.

Representatives vote for president (from top 3 candidates) by state. A majority of votes (26) is needed to win.

Senators vote for vice president (from top 2 candidates). A majority of votes (51) is needed to win.

GENERAL ELECTION (first Tuesday in November) How

Presidents and Vice

Presidents are

Chosen

A certificate of ascertainment names of the

electors chosen by the voters and the number of votes

received.

A certificate of vote lists all persons who received

electoral votes for President and Vice

president the number of electors who voted for

each person.

Are electors bound by law to cast their vote for a specific candidate?

Yes in these states: AL, AK, CA, CO, CT, DC, FL, HI, ME, MD, MA, MI, MS, MT, NE, NV, NM, NC, OH, OK, OR, SC, VT, VA, WA, WI, WY. (those in yellow are bound by “party pledges”)

No in these states: AZ, AR, DE, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MO, NH, NJ, NY, ND, PA, RI, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV.

Arguments for the Electoral College

Contributes to the cohesiveness of the country by requiring a distribution of popular support to become president;

Enhances the status of minority interests; Contributes to the political stability of the

nation by encouraging a two-party system; Maintains the federal system of

government and representation;

Arguments Against the Electoral College

The possibility of electing president receiving a minority of the popular vote;

The risk of so-called “faithless” electors;

The possible role of the Electoral College in depressing voter turnout;

Failure to accurately reflect the popular will;

Consequences

Consequences

Consequences

Reforming the Electoral College

Do nothing—maintain the status quo.

Abolish the electoral college outright and use a direct popular vote to determine outcomes—weigh individual votes equally everywhere: one person, one vote.

Retain the apportionment of the electoral college but allow for a proportional allocation of electoral votes.

Retain the apportionment of the electoral college but allocate one electoral vote for every congressional district a presidential candidate carries plus two more for each state.

Adopt a national bonus plan that would maintain the Electoral College but add 102 electoral votes to the existing total of 538 and award all of the bonus votes to the national popular-vote winner.

Year CandidateElectoral College

Proportional Plan

District Plan

Direct Popular

Vote

1960 Nixon 219 266.1 278 49.5

Kennedy 303 265.6 245 49.8

Byrd 15 5.3 14 0.7

1976 Ford 240 258.0 269 48.0

Carter 297 269.7 269 50.1

Others 1 10.2 0 1.9

2000 Gore 266 258.4 267 48.2

Bush 271 260.2 271 48.0

Others 0 19.4 -- 3.8

Four Methods for Aggregating Votes

http://www.businessinsider.com/stephen-colbert-gop-electoral-college-video-2013-1

The Presidential Nomination

Process How does the process

work (then vs. now)? Who does it

advantage? Is further reform

necessary? Are the qualities that

make a good candidate the same qualities that make a good president?

Then and Now

Top down, dominated by party elite

Bottom up, driven by primaries and caucuses

BORING

PREDICTABLE

Iowa and New Hampshire"If you look at the caucuses system, they are dominated by the special interests in both parties. The special interests don't represent the centrist tendencies of the American people. They represent the extremes."

—Howard Dean, 2000

Why Great Men are Not Chosen Presidents

In America, which is beyond all other countries the country of a ‘career open to talents,’ a country, moreover, in which political life is unusually keen and political ambition widely diffused, it might be expected that the highest place would always be won by a man of brilliant gifts. But from the time when the heroes of the Revolution died out with Jefferson and Adams and Madison, no person expect General Grant, had, down till the end of last century, reached the chair whose name would have been remembered had he not been president except Abraham Lincoln had displayed rare of striking qualities in the chair. Who now knows or cares to know anything about the personality of James K. Polk or Franklin Pierce? The only thing remarkable about them is that being so commonplace they should have climbed so high.”

—James Bryce, The American Commonwealth (1888)

James Bryce

Why Great Men are Not Chosen Presidents: Revisited

“It must also be remembered that the merits of a president are one thing and those of a candidate are another thing….”

—James Bryce, The American Commonwealth

What kind of president do Americans want?

A well-meaning, ordinary guy?

A passionate leader who tells it like it is?

A charismatic leader and man of conviction?

A man who can kick butt when he needs to?

Could these men be elected

president today?

The Nomination System Appraised

Enhanced participation; Improved demographic

representation; Strengthened the tie

between the average partisan and the candidates;

The presidential nominating process is not perfect, but in recent decades it has:

As constituted, the process gives advantage to candidates who are better known, can raise more money, have the most effective campaign organizations, and generate the most enthusiasm among the voters early in the presidential primary season.

Source: Stephen J. Wayne, “Presidential Nominations and American Democracy,” at: http://usinfo.state.gov/products/ pubs/election04/ nominate.htm

Is this a bad thing?