Presidential elections

How often?

Fixed term elections every 4 years 2-term limit for individual president According to Article II the election

should be held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November i.e. between 2nd-8th November

4 stages of presidential elections

1. Primaries and caucuses – Jan.-early June of election year

2. National party conventions – August/September

3. General election campaign – September/November

4. Election Day and Electoral College – 2nd-8th November

What does it take to become president?

What are the constitutional requirements?

• Naturally born American citizen• Minimum 35 years old• Residential qualification of 14 years• Not having served more than 2

terms

Political experience Presidential candidates are often Vice

Presidents, State governors or Senators. Of the 16 politicians nominated as

presidential candidates in the last 11 elections up to 2008 9 have been Senators, 6 were Vice Presidents and 5 were governors

What about Obama? How important is political experience?

Major party endorsement

Vital to be chosen as candidate for one of 2 major parties

Third party candidates have little chance e.g. Ross Perot (1992 and 1996)

Personal characteristics How many black candidates have there

been? How many Senators or State Governors

are women? Does it help to be married? Does it help to be faithful if you are

married? What other personal characteristics are

important?

Ability to raise large sums of money Realistic candidates have to raise huge

sums of money before the primaries e.g. in 2007 Clinton raised $90m, Obama $70m and McCain $28m

This money comes from individuals and groups and there are strict rules

Only billionaires like Ross Perot can afford to finance campaigns out of their own pockets

Effective organisation During primaries the candidates do not

have their party organisation behind them do they have to set up their own team

This has to be done both nationally and in each state. This needs time, money and ORGANISATION

One of the major reasons why Clinton lost the primary is due to poor organisation

Oratorical skills and being telegenic Which presidents had it and which

didn’t?? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

hORaebYWDwk&NR=1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

ZOFdTQAaSBs&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=WjWDrTXMgF8

Sound and relevant policies

Clinton ‘the economy, stupid’ McCain – campaign finance reform Obama?

THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY This is the period between when the

candidates declare an intention to run for the presidency and the first contests of the primary season

It is called invisible because much of what occurs cannot actually be seen

In the last election the first candidate declared himself in December 2006 (the election was Nov. 2008). Clinton announced in Jan 2007, Obama in Feb and McCain in April

First primary elections were in Jan 2008

THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY It is important during this period for the

candidate to gain NAME RECOGNITION, raise MONEY and arrange a state-based ORGANISATION

In the past there has been a strong correlation between candidates who have won the invisible primary and those who go on to win the presidential nomination.

Support for candidates is usually expressed through opinion polls. Often in head to head match ups

What can you do to win an invisible primary?

1. GET A MENTION IN THE MEDIA• Try to get in the national ‘papers• Have an article written about you

in a weekly like Time or Newsweek• Get an in-depth interview on tv

e.g. The News Hour with Jim Lehrer

What can you do to win an invisible primary?

2. TELEVISED DEBATES• There were 16 televised debates

between Democratic candidates and 12 between Republican candidates

• On 30th October Clinton fumbled over a question on illegal immigration

• immigrantshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eIKC3SQ_AA

3. STATE SPECIAL EVENTS• Iowa Straw Poll – A Republican fund-

raising dinner. Not a good predictor though

• Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner – Democratic fund-raiser. Obama made an impressive speech

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tydfsfSQiYc

4. Visits to key states e.g. Iowa and New Hampshire

5. CANDIDATES PUBLISH BOOKS6. MONEY RAISING• 1999 Elizabeth Dole ended her

presidential bid during invisible primary claiming the money had become the message

• Al Gore scared off challengers for the 2000 Democratic nomination because of huge amounts of money raised

The 2008 Invisible primary The 2008 race was littered with ‘firsts’ First election since 1952 where

neither incumbent president nor incumbent vice-president was a candidate

Lack of incumbents led to a larger field of candidates

By Jan. 2008 were 16 serious candidates

Democratic presidential candidates

Jo Biden – US Senator since 1973Hillary Clinton – US Senator since 2001Christopher Dodd – US Senator since 1981John Edwards – US Senator (1969-2005)Mike Gravel – US Senator (1969-81)Dennis Kucnich – US Representative snce

1997Barack Obama – US Senator since 2005Bill Richardson – Governor New Mexico

since 2003

Republican presidential candidates 2008

Sam Brownback – US Senator since 1996Rudolph Guiliani – Mayor New York 1994-2001Mike Huckabee – Governor Arkansas 1996-2007Duncan Hunter – US Representative since 1981John McCain – US Senator since 1987Ron Paul – US Representative snce 1997Mitt Romney – Governor Massachusetts 2003-7Fred Thompson – US Senator 1994-2003

Who had the big mo?

What factors do you think led to Clinton having a 28 point lead over Obama throughout 2007?

Who was the front runner for the Republicans during the invisible primary?

Who won the money primary?

During 2007 Clinton raised more money than Obama in 10 out of the 12 months. She raised $154m to Obama’s $129m

In the Republican race it was Romney who raised most money. He raised $112m to Guiliani’s $79m and McCain’s 54m

How important is the invisible primary?

Convention says it is the most important part of the nomination i.e. that whoever is ahead at the close of the invisible primary will win

In 2007 Clinton and Giuliani were ahead in the opinion polls and yet neither ended up as their party’s presidential nominee