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Strategic Intelligence Presenter: Michael Blackburn Economic Outlook 2016 Presenters: Michael Blackburn Dennis Cantalupo February 4, 2016

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Page 1: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Strategic Intelligence

Presenter: Michael Blackburn

Economic Outlook 2016 Presenters:

Michael Blackburn Dennis Cantalupo

February 4, 2016

Page 2: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

• The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6% - Unemployment fell to 5%, well below heights of 10% in 2009, 2.7 million jobs added in 2015 - Consumer sentiment holding strong - Housing stable - prices up 5.8% through Nov (Case Shiller) - Inflation under control: lower fuel & commodity prices - Bankruptcy activity remains modest, although retail activity has increased - Equity markets volatile coming into 2016, driven by strong dollar and lower oil prices

• The Bad: - Wage growth since recession has been slow; job growth in low wage positions - Underemployment rate at 10%, and labor participation rate remains only 63%, a 40-year low; 25-54 age group rate is 80.8%, or about 2% below pre-recession levels - Income disparity still an issue - High public and private debt - Corporate capital spending improving but still restrained - Lower fuel prices hurt energy sector, lower capex - Fed initiated rate hike in December, at least two more increases were expected in 2016, but Fed recently more dovish

• China soft landing & transition, growth nearing a 20 year low • U.S. is a bright spot in the Global economy, but high dollar and sluggish global economies could hurt trade. • Risks: EU break up; cyber attacks; China economy falls; middle east; Russia; climate change; oil rebound; US presidency

U.S. Economy in 2015 2016 Outlook

Page 3: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Economic Indicators – GDP

3

Average GDP growth since 1950s is 3.2%, compared to 1.5% since 2006, or 2.2% since 2010

2016 Outlook

Q4 Contributions to GDP Growth Consumer spending grew 2.2%, down from 3% in Q3 Contributions from residential fixed investment and federal spending were partially offset by negative contributions from private inventory investments, state spending, exports and nonresidential fixed investments.

Source: Federal Reserve, Wall Street Journal

Page 4: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Economic Indicators – Income & Consumption

4

Real disposable income (DPI) up 2.4% in 2014, after a 0.2% decrease in 2013; Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.5%, compared to a 2.4% increase

2016 Outlook

Real median income fell from about $57,400 in 2007 to about $54,000 in 2014

A good measure of consumer/economic strength is disposable income, defined as after-tax income

Real disposable personal income rose 3.2% in Q4 after 3.8% increase in Q3; Personal savings rate increased to 5.4% from 5.2% in Q3

For 2015, DPI grew 3.5% and PCE grew 3.1%, compared to 2.7% for both in 2014. Dec consumer spending was essentially flat as the savings rate grew, despite low fuel prices and inflation

Page 5: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Economic Indicators – Too Much Debt?

5

2016 Outlook

As of 9/30/15, consumer debt was at $12.07 trillion, up 3% yoy, still about 5% below peak $12.680 trillion in 2008. Most non-housing debt has been stable in the last three years, except student loans, which have increased 10% to $1.2 trillion, with delinquency rates over 10%. Auto loans also grew in 2015

Total federal debt rose to $18.150 trillion, or just over 100% of GDP; debt held by public reached $13.120 trillion, including $2.800 trillion held by the Fed

Low rates, below GDP growth, have helped contain debt growth.

Page 6: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Economic Indicators – Inflation & Pricing

6

Inflation pressure remains weak. IMF Commodity Index fell 30.7% in 2015 with energy dropping 39.3%; non-fuel prices fell 19.1%, partly reflecting US$ appreciation

2016 Outlook

Page 7: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Economic Indicators – Financial Markets

7

• Fed began to raise rates in December, first increase since 2006. At least 2 increases expected in 2016, with target rate expected to increase to between 0.75% to 1.00%

• Prime rate currently 3.5% could hit 4% by year-end

• 10-year rate held at just over 2% most of 2015

•Yield curve remains normal, though steepened in 2015 - inflation risk remains low in 2016 but overall credit risks are increasing

DJIA closed 2015 at 17,425, down 2.2%; 52 week range: 15,370-18,351, similar to 2014

2016Outlook

Treasury Yield Curve

DJIA

Page 8: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Federal Reserve – 2016 Projections

8

GDP growth remains soft; another slow Q1? Fed expects growth of around 2% through 2018, and stable unemployment in 5% range

2.7 million jobs added in 2015, but not enough to boost GDP growth. Number of Americans with jobs or seeking employment remained near a 40-year low of 62.5%; 81% among workers aged 25-54. Adjusted for part-time and marginally attached workers, the rate was 9.9% in Dec, down from about 17% in 2010. Inflation, as measured by PCE Index, should increase and stay in 2% range. The price index fell 0.2% in Dec and was up 0.7% in 2014. U.S. economy still vulnerable to external shocks.

2016 Outlook

Page 9: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Economic Indicators – Housing

9

2016 Outlook

Home price growth appears to be stabilizing at about 5%, S&P/Case Shiller 20 city index was up 5.8% in Nov year-over-year. Existing home sales rose 15% in December, and reached 5.26 million for the year, the highest level since 2006. However, with prices and interest rates rising, sales growth is expected to slow in 2016 to 1% to 3% (National Assoc of Realtors). Home prices have climbed 29% from their bottom in Jan 2012, but are still nearly 5% below their record level from July 2006.

Housing starts fell 2.5% in Dec, with declines in all markets except the Northeast

Page 10: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Geographic Trends

10

• Foreclosure trends continue to improve. • The median sales price of a non-distressed home was $181,000 in Nov 2015 (up 25% yoy). The median sales price of a foreclosure home was $114,240, or 37% lower than non-distressed home sales. Foreclosure filings fell 10% yoy in December. (RealtyTrac) • National unemployment rate fell to 5% in Dec 2015, from 5.6% at the end of 2014 and peak of 9.9% in Oct 2009 • Highest unemployment - New Mexico (6.8%), D.C. (6.6%), W. Virginia (6.5%), NV (6.5%); Lowest unemployment – ND (2.7%), NE (2.9%), SD (3%), HI (3.2%), NH (3.2%),

2016 Outlook

Dec 2015 Foreclosure Rate Heat Map

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 11: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Commercial Real Estate Trends

11

• Store closings continue – JCP, Sports Authority, Sears, Radioshack, Bi-Lo/Winn-Dixie, Macy’s, Walmart, Alco, Target Canada, the Gap, Hancock, office suppliers.

• New store growth limited; capex trimmed and focused on remodels, technology, online and customer experience; M&A has created consolidation.

•Vacancy rate for regional malls decreased slightly o 7.8% in Q4 2015 from 7.9% in Q3 and 8% Q4 2014. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011. The strip mall vacancy rate decreased to 10% in Q4, from 10.1% in Q3 and 10.2% in Q4 2014. (Reis).

•Reis noted construction remains at weak levels, and there has not been much change in rental rates over the past five quarters (up around 2% year over year) .

• Strip mall rent growth accelerated slightly versus last quarter but the quarterly growth rates are so weak that any difference is marginal and insignificant. Certain markets such as San Francisco, NY, Phoenix and Miami seeing strength.

•Creditntell Retail REIT Roundup : 95.2% occupancy, 3.2% increase in average base rent

2016 Outlook

Page 12: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

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Retail Backdrop • Consumption comprises about two thirds of GDP – retail is critical component of economy • Consumer sentiment, averaged around 93 in 2015, stronger on improved employment and lower fuel trends, but wage growth still weak • NRF – Holiday sales grew 3% to $626.1 billion, down from 4.1% in 2014; retailers used deep discounts to drive traffic; non- store holiday sales grew 9% to $105 billion • Risks: rising interest rates and health care costs; minimum wage hikes; data breach; stronger dollar

2016 Outlook

Source: NRF

Page 13: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Sales Trends

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• Retail sales fell 0.1% in Dec from Nov 2015, and rose just 2.1% for 2015 (0.9% excluding auto). U.S. Commerce Dept. • 2015 - General merchandise rose 0.8%, electronics and dept stores fell 2.4%; and 2% Foodservices up 8.1% and food stores up 2.5%; Nonstore retail up 6.3%. • Consumer sentiment rose to 92.6 in Dec and 93.3 for Jan – jobs and fuel – but will it translate to higher sales? • Moody’s expects core retail sales, excluding auto and gas sales, to grow about 5% in 2016. • Trends: Rise of internet and off-price retail

2016 Outlook

Page 14: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Retail Operating Trends

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2016 Outlook

Source: S&P Retail/Restaurant Revenue & EBITDA Growth

Page 15: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Who’s Opening, Who’s Closing

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2016 Outlook

Food & ConvenienceMost Recent

PeriodPrevious

Year Pct ChangeCount

ChangeSUPERVALU Inc. 1,536 1,528 0.5% 8Metro Inc. 857 856 0.1% 1Tesco PLC 3434 3433 0.0% 1Bashas' Inc. 120 120 0.0% 0Bozzuto's, Inc 5 5 0.0% 0Central Grocers, Inc. 37 37 0.0% 0Fairway Group Holdings Corp. 15 15 0.0% 0Marc Glassman, Inc. 61 61 0.0% 0Loblaw Companies Limited 2440 2440 0.0% 0SpartanNash Company 165 165 0.0% 0URM Stores, Inc. 22 22 0.0% 0Village Super Market, Inc. 29 29 0.0% 0Woodman's Food Market, Inc. 15 15 0.0% 0Redner's Markets, Inc. 59 59 0.0% 0Big Y Foods, Inc. 61 61 0.0% 0Wakefern Food Corp. 90 90 0.0% 0Alex Lee, Inc. 100 100 0.0% 0Hy-Vee, Inc. 259 259 0.0% 0The Kroger Co. 2,620 2,631 -0.4% -11Ingles Markets, Inc. 201 202 -0.5% -1Ahold 762 767 -0.7% -5Brookshire Grocery Company 151 152 -0.7% -1Weis Markets, Inc. 163 165 -1.2% -2Marsh Supermarkets, Inc. 77 78 -1.3% -1Schnuck Markets, Inc. 99 101 -2.0% -2LRI Holdings, Inc. 230 235 -2.1% -5Associated Food Stores, Inc. 42 43 -2.3% -1King Kullen Grocery Company, Inc. 42 43 -2.3% -1Bob Evans Farms, Inc. 548 562 -2.5% -14Ruby Tuesday, Inc. 663 683 -2.9% -20Cumberland Farms, Inc. 550 570 -3.5% -20Save Mart Supermarkets 213 221 -3.6% -8Rouse's Enterprises, LLC 43 45 -4.4% -2Raley's, Inc. 122 128 -4.7% -6Bloomin Brands, Inc. 1,280 1,349 -5.1% -69Delhaize Group 1,291 1,363 -5.3% -72The Wendy's Company, Inc. 852 995 -14.4% -143Mars Super Markets, Inc. 13 17 -23.5% -4Brookshire Brothers Holding, Inc. 110 149 -26.2% -39Ignite Restaurant Group 154 326 -52.8% -172

Food & ConvenienceMost Recent

PeriodPrevious

Year Pct ChangeCount

ChangeShake Shack 41 26 57.7% 15K-VA-T Food Stores, Inc. 133 106 25.5% 27Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. 573 463 23.8% 110Alimentation Couche-Tard, Inc. 8,915 7,423 20.1% 1,492Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. 103 87 18.4% 16Noodles & Company 424 370 14.6% 54Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. 216 191 13.1% 25Chipotle Mexican Gril l , Inc. 1,931 1,724 12.0% 207Grocery Outlet, Inc. 241 218 10.6% 23Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. 76 69 10.1% 7The Fresh Market, Inc. 180 164 9.8% 16Texas Roadhouse, Inc. 394 361 9.1% 33BJ's Restaurants, Inc. 168 154 9.1% 14Southeastern Grocers, LLC (a/k/a BI-LO and Winn-Dixie) 756 697 8.5% 59Bravo Brio Restaurant Group 116 107 8.4% 9Whole Foods Market, Inc. 431 399 8.0% 32Smart & Final Stores, LLC 270 252 7.1% 18DeMoulas (dba Market Basket) 75 71 5.6% 4Restaurant Brands International Inc. 19,514 18,550 5.2% 964Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. 428 409 4.6% 19The North West Company Inc. 237 227 4.4% 10The Cheesecake Factory Inc. 194 186 4.3% 8Fareway Stores, Inc. 112 108 3.7% 4Albertsons Companies, Inc. 2,267 2,196 3.2% 71YUM! Brands, Inc. 41,924 40,618 3.2% 1,306Panera Bread Company 931 903 3.1% 28Sobeys Inc. 1,852 1,801 2.8% 51Casey's General Stores, Inc. 1,904 1,856 2.6% 48Northgate Gonzalez Market Inc. 40 39 2.6% 1Wegmans Food Markets, Inc. 85 83 2.4% 2Publix Super Markets, Inc. 1,106 1,080 2.4% 26Biglari Holdings Inc. 625 612 2.1% 13Organizacion Soriana, S.A. de C.V. 678 664 2.1% 14Tops Holding II Corporation 161 158 1.9% 3McDonald's Corporation 36,405 35,864 1.5% 541Giant Eagle, Inc. 427 423 0.9% 4Darden Restaurants, Inc. 1,534 1,520 0.9% 14Jack In The Box Inc. 2,910 2,888 0.8% 22Denny's Corporation 1,700 1,689 0.7% 11Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. 637 633 0.6% 4Brinker International, Inc. 1,632 1,622 0.6% 10Stater Bros. Holdings, Inc. 169 168 0.6% 1

Page 16: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Who’s Opening, Who’s Closing

16

2016 Outlook

Department StoresMost Recent

PeriodPrevious

Year Pct ChangeCount

ChangeHudson's Bay Company 466 328 42.1% 138Nordstrom, Inc. 323 293 10.2% 30Macy's, Inc. 900 840 7.1% 60Ross Stores, Inc. 1,448 1,366 6.0% 82Burlington Stores, Inc. 566 539 5.0% 27Gordmans Stores, Inc. 102 98 4.1% 4Von Maur Inc. 30 29 3.4% 1Neiman Marcus, Inc. 86 84 2.4% 2Stein Mart, Inc. 274 268 2.2% 6Kohl's Corporation 1,166 1,163 0.3% 3Boscov's, Inc. 43 43 0.0% 0BCE, Inc. (Operates The Source Retail Chain 700 700 0.0% 0Dillard's, Inc. 297 298 -0.3% -1Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited 1,690 1,696 -0.4% -6Stage Stores, Inc. 847 855 -0.9% -8Belk, Inc. 296 299 -1.0% -3Beall 's, Inc. 490 495 -1.0% -5The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. 270 273 -1.1% -3J.C. Penney Company, Inc. 1,021 1,062 -3.9% -41Sears Canada Inc. 429 477 -10.1% -48

Electronics & OfficeMost Recent

PeriodPrevious

Year Pct ChangeCount

ChangeConn's, Inc. 101 89 13.5% 12hhgregg, Inc. 227 228 -0.4% -1Best Buy Co., Inc. 1,047 1,052 -0.5% -5Aaron's, Inc. 2,064 2,101 -1.8% -37Staples, Inc. 1,919 2,024 -5.2% -105Fry's Electronics, Inc. 32 34 -5.9% -2Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores, Inc. 1,172 1,257 -6.8% -85Interbond Corporation of America 9 10 -10.0% -1Office Depot, Inc. 1,769 1,996 -11.4% -227

Retail DrugMost Recent

PeriodPrevious

Year Pct ChangeCount

ChangeCVS Health Corporation 8,067 7,910 2.0% 157The Jean Coutu Group (PJC) Inc. 416 416 0.0% 0Rite Aid Corporation 4,560 4,572 -0.3% -12Walgreens Boots All iance, Inc. 8,192 8,333 -1.7% -141

Page 17: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Who’s Opening, Who’s Closing

17

2016 Outlook

Apparel & FootwearMost Recent

PeriodPrevious

Year Pct ChangeCount

ChangeBoot Barn Holdings, Inc. 201 158 27.2% 43Lululemon Athletica Inc. 354 289 22.5% 65Francesca's Holdings Corporation 619 538 15.1% 81Carter's, Inc. 809 720 12.4% 89H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB 3,675 3,341 10.0% 334DSW, Inc. 449 410 9.5% 39J. Crew Goup, Inc. 536 495 8.3% 41Zumiez, Inc. 640 592 8.1% 48Tilly's, Inc. 216 203 6.4% 13Urban Outfitters, Inc. 556 525 5.9% 31Genesco Inc. 2,800 2,674 4.7% 126The Gap, Inc. 3,751 3,594 4.4% 157Shoe Carnival, Inc. 400 390 2.6% 10Express, Inc. 654 638 2.5% 16The Cato Corporation 1,370 1,343 2.0% 27The Buckle, Inc. 464 456 1.8% 8Citi Trends, Inc. 520 512 1.6% 8L Brands, Inc. 3,003 2,971 1.1% 32Brown Shoe Company, Inc 1,207 1,205 0.2% 2Ascena Retail Group Inc. 3,895 3,896 0.0% -1The Men's Wearhouse, Inc. 1,748 1,760 -0.7% -12Chico's FAS, Inc. 1,546 1,557 -0.7% -11Foot Locker, Inc. 3,419 3,460 -1.2% -41The Finish Line, Inc. 696 705 -1.3% -9Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc. 611 620 -1.5% -9New York & Company, Inc. 504 512 -1.6% -8Destination XL Group, Inc. 354 361 -1.9% -7American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. 1,068 1,092 -2.2% -24Christopher & Banks Corporation 540 554 -2.5% -14Children's Place Retail Stores, Inc. 1,085 1,117 -2.9% -32bebe stores, inc. 201 207 -2.9% -6Gymboree 1,315 1,355 -3.0% -40Le Chateau Inc. 218 225 -3.1% -7Abercrombie & Fitch Co. 965 1,000 -3.5% -35Destination Maternity Corp. 554 575 -3.7% -21Claire's Stores, Inc. 2,926 3,038 -3.7% -112Danier Leather Inc. 86 90 -4.4% -4Lands' End, Inc. 246 261 -5.7% -15Reitmans (Canada) Limited 775 843 -8.1% -68Aeropostale, Inc. 824 1,052 -21.7% -228

Mass MerchandisersMost Recent

PeriodPrevious

Year Pct ChangeCount

ChangeDollar Tree, Inc. 14,038 5,282 165.8% 8,756Five Below, Inc. 434 365 18.9% 69Dollarama Group Holdings L.P. 1,005 928 8.3% 77Carrefour SA 10,860 10,105 7.5% 75599 Cents Only Stores 389 362 7.5% 27The TJX Companies, Inc. 3,594 3,385 6.2% 209Dollar General Corporation 12,396 11,715 5.8% 681PriceSmart, Inc. 38 36 5.6% 2Meijer, Inc. 213 204 4.4% 9Costco Wholesale Corporation 697 671 3.9% 26Walmart Stores, Inc. 11,554 11,156 3.6% 398Walmart de Mexico y Centroamerica 3,004 2,904 3.4% 100Bi-Mart Corporation 75 74 1.4% 1Big Lots, Inc. 1,463 1,496 -2.2% -33Variety Wholesalers, Inc. 355 366 -3.0% -11Fred's, Inc. 639 682 -6.3% -43Target Corporation 1,805 1,934 -6.7% -129Sears Holdings Corporation 1,687 1,831 -7.9% -144Army and Air Force Exchange Service 2,440 3,100 -21.3% -660

Home Improvement / Building MaterialsMost Recent

PeriodPrevious

Year Pct ChangeCount

ChangeTractor Supply Company 1,465 1,361 7.6% 104RONA Inc. 514 500 2.8% 14The Sherwin-Will iams Company 4,048 3,941 2.7% 10784 Lumber Company 252 249 1.2% 3Lowe's Companies, Inc. 1,846 1,837 0.5% 9The Home Depot, Inc. 2,270 2,264 0.3% 6Fastenal Company 2,647 2,647 0.0% 0True Value Company 4,472 4,494 -0.5% -22

HousewaresMost Recent

PeriodPrevious

Year Pct ChangeCount

ChangeContainer Store Group, Inc. 77 69 11.6% 8Kirkland's, Inc. 351 328 7.0% 23Will iams-Sonoma, Inc. 612 589 3.9% 23Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. 1,520 1,506 0.9% 14Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc. 67 68 -1.5% -1Pier 1 Imports, Inc. 1,053 1,073 -1.9% -20Rent-A-Center, Inc. 2,697 2,841 -5.1% -144Tuesday Morning Corporation 757 801 -5.5% -44Kitchen Collection, Inc. 224 239 -6.3% -15

Page 18: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Bankruptcies & High Yield Debt

18

• Bankruptcy filings have been pared, thanks to strong securities markets, low interest rates, and slightly improving economy that have allowed more companies to refinance and push out debt maturities.

•According to Bankruptcydata.com, 2015 saw nearly 14% fewer corporate bankruptcies (29,839) than in 2014, a year which had the fewest since at least 1980, and the sixth consecutive year bankruptcies have declined. However, public company bankruptcies did increase to 79 from 54 in 2014, due to a jump in oil & gas, mining and related sectors. California, Texas, New York and Florida were again the states with largest percentage of bankruptcies in 2015 (40%). Puerto Rico bankruptcies rose in the fourth quarter, to represent 3.6% of all bankruptcies due to the fiscal problems in the territory; Puerto Rico is attempting to get legislation passed to allow it to restructure its debt. The Services industry had the largest share of bankruptcies again in 2015, representing 34.7% of filings, while Retail Trade represented 11.3%, led by Eating and Drinking places, with 10% of all filings.

• Haggen, Inc., Fresh & Easy, A&P, Wet Seal, Radioshack, Cache, City Sports, Quicksilver, Team Express, Anna’s Linens, Simply Fashion Stores, Fredericks of Hollywood and American Apparel filed in 2015. 2016 started off with Joyce Leslie. & Hancock Fabric. Sports Authority possibly next.

• High yield market saw a pullback of about 5% in 2015 (first loss since 2008) amid concerns over the energy sector, large outflows and uncertain global growth. Spreads widened with yields surpassing 8%, compared to around 7% at the end of 2014. The trailing 12-month (Nov) default rate of 2.8% is about half the long-term historical average; defaults are expected to increase in 2016, particularly among energy issues – Moody’s predicts over 3%, .

• Defaults could increase following surge in high yield issuances during 2008 credit crisis, due to rising rates and refinancing risk.

2016 Outlook

Page 19: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Credit Ratings – D or Lower

19

2016 Outlook

Current Company Name Credit RatingLe Chateau Inc. F2LRI Holdings, Inc. F299 Cents Only Stores F1Body Central Corp. F1Danier Leather Inc. F1Fairway Group Holdings Corp. F1Nebraska Book Company, Inc. F1Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc. F1Sears Holdings Corporation F1The Sports Authority, Inc. F1Associated Materials, Inc. E2BlueLinx Holdings Inc. E2The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. E2Gymboree E2Hastings Entertainment, Inc. E2School Specialty Inc. E2Sears Canada Inc. E2SED International Holdings, Inc. E2Tops Holding II Corporation E2Aeropostale, Inc. E1Builders FirstSource, Inc. E1Claire's Stores, Inc. E1Colabor Group E1Gander Mountain Company E1Gordmans Stores, Inc. E1HD Supply, Inc. E1Ignite Restaurant Group E1J. Crew Goup, Inc. E1Kitchen Collection, Inc. E1Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores, Inc. E1Southern States Cooperative, Inc. E1Systemax Inc. E1Toys R Us, Inc. E1US Foods, Inc. E1

Current Company Name Credit RatingEmery-Waterhouse Company (The) D2EVINE Live Inc. D2Harbor Wholesale Grocery Inc. D2Huttig Building Products, Inc. D2Interline Brands, Inc. D2J.C. Penney Company, Inc. D2Neiman Marcus, Inc. D2Taiga Building Products Ltd. D2Unified Grocers, Inc. D2United Hardware Distributing Co. D284 Lumber Company D1Albertsons Companies D1At Home Corporation D1Bloomin Brands, Inc. D1CanWel Building Materials Group Ltd. D1Chef's Warehouse, Inc. D1Destination Maternity Corp. D1hhgregg, Inc. D1Lands' End, Inc. D1Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. D1Modell's Sporting Goods D1Pro-Build Holdings, Inc. D1Rite Aid Corporation D1Sportsman's Warehouse, Inc. D1SUPERVALU Inc. D1Trans World Entertainment Corporation D1

Page 20: Presenters: Presenter: Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook ...•The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6%

Strategic Intelligence

Presenters:

Michael Blackburn Dennis Cantalupo Senior Vice President COO 800 – 789 – 0123 x 131 800-789-0123 x110 [email protected] [email protected]

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Kevin Slack President, Creditntell.com (800) 789 – 0123 x103 [email protected]

Lawrence Sarf CEO (800) 789 – 0123 x102 [email protected]

Steve Dove President, F&D Reports (800) 789 – 0123 x121 [email protected]

Thank You!

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