ENERGIA DIGITALE Infrastrutture, modelli di business e ruolo del consumatore

ROMA, 20 SETTEMBRE 2017

Franco D’Amore Stefano da Empoli Gloria Marcotullio Silvia Compagnucci

Agenda

(R)Evolution in the energy sector

Smart infrastructures

ICT & energy: possible synergies

Open issues

2

Agenda

(R)Evolution in the energy sector

Smart infrastructures

ICT & energy: possible synergies

Open issues

3

(R)evolution in the Energy sector – SDG7

1.06 billion people, predominantly rural dwellers,

still function without electricity. Half of those

people live in sub-Saharan Africa

More than 3 billion people, the majority of them in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, are still cooking without clean

fuels and more efficient technologies.

SDG7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable,

sustainable and modern energy for all

0 1 000 000 2 000 000 3 000 000 4 000 000 5 000 000 6 000 000 7 000 000 8 000 000 9 000 000

10 000 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

world population (thousands)

Rural

Urban

Source: I-Com on UN data

+ 2.2 billion in next 35 years; mostly gained by cities; mostly in Asia &

Africa

4

(R)evolution in the Energy sector – Paris Agreement

Paris Agreement

To keep global temperature rise well below 2 degrees

Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts

to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5

degrees Celsius To strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change

To make available financial flows to develop a low greenhouse gases path

5

18.000

20.000

22.000

24.000

26.000

28.000

30.000

32.000

34.000

36.000

38.000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

Mt

Global CO2 emissions reduction in the New policies scenario and 450 scenario

Efficiency Renewables Fuel switching Nuclear CCS Other 450 Scenario New policies scenario

(R)evolution in the Energy sector – World CO2 emissions

Source: I-Com on IEA data

6,440 Mt

6,200 Mt

6

(R)evolution in the Energy sector - European state of art in the energy sector

The EU has set targets for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions progressively up to 2050. According to the transformation towards a low-carbon economy, key climate and energy targets are set in the 2020 climate and energy package and 2030 climate and energy framework.

2020 2030 2050

Binding legislation. Key targets:

• 20% cut in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels);

• 20% of EU energy from renewables;

• 20% improvement in energy efficiency.

The EU has taken action in several areas to meet the targets.

The framework was adopted by EU leaders in October 2014.

Key targets: • At least 40% cuts

in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels);

• At least 27% share for renewable energy;

• At least 27% improvement in energy efficiency.

The low-carbon economy roadmap suggests :

• To cut greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels;

• All sectors need to contribute

• The low-carbon transition is feasible & affordable.

7

(R)evolution in the Energy sector - European GHG Emissions

Source: I-Com on Primes (2016) data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005

=100

EU ETS emissions

ETS sectors GHGemissions

Primes forecasts ETS GHGemissions

Target ets 2020

Targert ets 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2005

=100

EU non-ETS emissions

ESD sectors GHGemissions

Primes forecasts non-ETSGHG emissions

target non-ets 2020

target non-ets 2030

8

Agenda

(R)Evolution in the energy sector

Smart infrastructures

ICT & energy: possible synergies

Open issues

9

Infrastructure in modern society

Efficient infrastructure systems are key elements of modern societies and ensure the delivery of everyday life flow of goods and services that are at the basis of human progress and welfare.

Mobility Water Communication Electricity

Infrastructures are made by physical objects (wires, streets, bridges, pipes, ….) and a control system (sensors, data acquisition, elaboration and transmission). The physical part enables the flow of goods and services to final users, the control systems enable the proper management (e.g. efficient and safe)

10

Global investments in infrastructures

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

520

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

2220

2320

2420

2520

2620

2720

2820

2920

3020

3120

3220

3320

3420

3520

3620

3720

3820

3920

40

Infrastructure investments [T$]

Current trends Investment need

investment need scenario is based on the investment that would occur if countries were to match the performance of their best performing peers

Source: Global Infrastructure Outlook (2017)

0,00%0,20%0,40%0,60%0,80%1,00%1,20%1,40%

investment trends 2016-2040 as % of GDP

current trands

investment need

36%

13%

3% 2%

10%

29%

7%

investment share by sector (2015; total=2,3 T$)

Electricity

TelecommunicationTransport:AirportTransport:PortsTransport: Rail

Transport:RoadWater

Average yearly investments in the electricity sector: ̴̴1T$ 11

EU investments in infrastructures

Source: Global Infrastructure Outlook (2017)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

road rail airports ports telecoms electricity water

average 2016-2040 yearly investments [G$; investment need scanario]

France Germany Italy Poland Romania Spain UK

Average EU yearly investments in the electricity sector: ̴̴80 G$ ( ̴̴30% of total)

12

Dumb vs. intelligent infrastructures

Physical layer

Digital (cyber) layer

Dumb infrastructure: unable to communicate, adapt to external conditions and connect to other networks

Physical layer Digital (cyber) layer

SMART

Intelligent infrastructure: collect info on the state of the infrastructure, elaborate data and interact with costumers/providers

Source: Cambridge Centre for Smart Infrastructure and Construction 13

Intelligent vs. smart infrastructures An Intelligent infrastructure collects and processes data into real-time actionable information, which is then used by itself or a human operator (service provider/customer) in making optimal decisions

A smart infrastructure collects and processes data, takes autonomous and appropriate actions, that are dynamic and adaptive to changing conditions. The interaction with costumers is real-time and ubiquitous.

Source: Smart Infrastructure and Construction Volume 170 Issue SC1 (2017)

Infrastructure (physical + digital) user supervisor

Service/good info

info

action

user supervisor

Service/good info

Infrastructure (physical + digital)

info

action action

14

From traditional energy infrastructure…..

GENERATION TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION

Power infrastructure

CONSUMER

POWER EXCHANGE PLATFORM SUPPLIERS

Power flow Grid status data flow Financial data flow Consumption & billing data flow

15

…..to smart energy infrastructure

GENERATION TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION PROSUMER

POWER EXCHANGE PLATFORM

SUPPLIERS

Power flow Grid status data flow Financial data flow Consumption & billing data flow Energy services

STORAGE STORAGE

D-GENERATION < ΔT

STORAGE

16

Agenda

(R)Evolution in the energy sector

Smart infrastructures

ICT & energy: possible synergies

Open issues

17

OECD (2011)

• Increase the share of renewable energy in the

electricity mix • Integrate distributed, small-scale electricity

generation • Transmission and distribution grid

management • Increase electricity storage capacities • Dynamic and real-time pricing for electricity

consumption and distributed generation • Electricity conservation and energy-efficiency • Demand management • Integration of electric vehicles (and renewable

energy sources)

EU 2030 targets and beyond

• ICT is a key enabling factor for achieving EU target for a sustainable, secure and competitive energy system.

• It will play a central role in reshaping the energy sector to meet, by 2030 40% cut in GHG emissions compared to 1990 27% share of renewable energy consumption 27% energy savings compared to BAU scenario

SDG 7

ICT can give a remarkable contribution to “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”

Smart energy infrastructures: main drivers for improving ICT applications in the energy sector

Source: ICT Applications for the Smart Grid - Opportunities and policy implications (OECD – 2011) SDGs & ICT (The Earth Institute – Columbia University – and Ericsson - 2016) 18

Digital energy: from buzz to business

Source: IEA (2017)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000

2005

2010

201420152016

global power sector investments [G$]

network

generation

Global energy investments: 700 Billion $ in 2016

(40% in networks)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2015 2016

spending on electricity networks [G$]

other

digital grid infrastructure

11% of the total 2016 grid investments (280 billion $) are in digital infrastructures (+50% compared to 2015)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2014 2015 2016

world investments in digital infrastructure - electricity sector [G$]

electricity system software

industrial energymanagement softwarebuilding energy controls

EV chargers

smart grid infrstructure

smart meters

total investments in digital energy reached 48 billion $ in 2016

19

EU Energy infrastructure in figures

UE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM ~ 300.000 km 394 AC + 29 DC cross frontier interconnections 10.713 DSO-TSO interconnection points (primary substations)1

41 operators in 34 Countries (considering ENTSO-E borders) 1: refers to 27 EU Countries

UE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM ~ 10.000.000 km 4.000.000 M&L voltage transformers (secondary substations) 1857 operators (198 with more than 100.000 costumers) ~ 260.000.000 power meters

Source: ENTSO-E, Statistical Factsheet (2016) Euroelectric, Power Distribution in Europe. Facts & Figures Eurostat (2017)

UE POTENTIAL PROSUMERS ~ 220.000.000 households (2016) ~ 26.000.000 active enterprises (2014 – missing data from Greece)

UE POWER GENERATION

?

20

Key ICT technologies for digital energy

DATA MANAGEMENT (process of data)

CONNECTIVITY (flow of data)

SENSORS & ACTUATORS

(source of data & automation)

• Storage • Analytics & intelligence • Protection & security

• Environment conditions • Device status control • Smart meter • Actuators

• HAN • LAN • WAN • WIRE / WIRELESS • Broadband

MtM / IoT +

Big data

SENSORS & ACTUATORS

21

Sensors & actuators: Main enabling factor: advancement in the semiconductor industry (miniaturization, cost reduction, performance such as elaboration, storage capacity, energy) SENSORS: involve a transducer (converting physical properties in electrical signals) + AD converter (e.g. electric signal to 16 bit number) + communication unit + (depending on the complexity) data storage + elaboration capacity ACTUATORS: communication unit + DA converter + transducer (converting electrical signal into physical changes) + (depending on the complexity) data storage + elaboration capacity TAGS: identify physical objects (can be a device, such as RFID or physical, e.g. QR-code)

Sensors and actuators represent 7% of the global semiconductor sales (10 G$) and is the fastest growing segment, increasing 23% compared to the previous year. Many analysts agree that this segment will experience a step increase in the next future due to IoT applications.

Source: Semiconductor Industry Association (2017) and World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (2017)

27%

23% 18%

3%

29%

Global semiconductor industry sales by category [2016 =338,9 G$]

Logic Memory Micor-Ics Sensors and actuators other

19%

10%

10% 61%

Global semiconductor industry sales by country [2016 =338,9 G$]

Americas Europe Japan Asia Apcific

22

Semiconductor industry patents: Number of Patents Granted 2015 by US Patent Office - Semiconductor Devices and Manufacture

Source: US Patent Office (2017)

32%

26%

14%

12%

1% 3%

4%

2% 1%

1% 4%

U.S.

JAPAN

KOREA, SOUTH

TAIWAN

SINGAPORE

CHINA

GERMANY

FRANCE

UNITED KINGDOM

ITALY

RoW

Share by Regions ASIA: 57% US: 32% Top 4 UE: 7% ROW: 4%

23

Sensors & actuators: some emerging applications in the energy sector

“Industrial” applications (transmission & distribution): - monitoring real-time grid status; monitoring

transient events and fault detection - Substation condition-based management

- Line / substation dynamic rating

“Retail” applications - Smart metering (AMI)

- IoT

Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) GPS synchronized V/I/φ measurement at 30-60 Hz

Measurement of a set of multiple parameters to determine maintenance needs (minutes/days sampling rate)

Measurement of a set of multiple parameters to determine “real-time” transmission line capacity

From more time resolved power consumptions (e.g. each 15 min. instead of once/twice a month) to more advanced energy management services (e.g. dynamic pricing and load management/control)

Integrating energy consumption data with other environmental parameters; interact with home appliances

24

Connectivity Energy infrastructures has a wide variety of geographical scale topology, ranging from Regional to home, and implies point as well as linear physical objects. The “density” of these objects can be very different.

Communication patterns can be very different (one-to-one; one-to-many; many-to-one)

Also communication requirements in terms of bandwidth, latency, accuracy and security are very different

Figure: ANISA (2015) 25

Networks

Each communication channel has to take into account the physical limits on bit-rate and distance (+ costs of deployment) of the network. Communication networks are based on wired or wireless technologies.

HAN

IAN

BAN

M

M

M

M: meter

Zigbee

PLC

Z-Wave

Wi-Fi

C

C: concentrator

M

PLC

WI-MAX

4G

3G/LTE/4G

D

D: Data Center

X-DSL

WI-MAX

LAN WAN

technology Bit-rate range

Zigbee 250 kbps 10-100 m

Z-Waves 0,1 Mbps 10-100 m

WI-FI 1-150 Mbps Up to 100 m

NB-PLC Up to 500 kbps Several Km

BB-PLC Up to 200 Mbps Several Km

WI-MAX Up to 100 Mbps Up to 50 Km

3G Up to 20 Mbps Up to 50 Km

4G Up to 128 Mbps Up to 50 Km

X-DSL Up to 100 Mbps Few Km

26

KEY CONNECTIVITY ISSUES FOR DIGITAL ENERGY APPLICATIONS

Bandwidth doesn’t seem to be the key issue up to now (with the exception of some specific real time grid control application)

INTEROPERABILITY & STANDARDS

SECURITY

WHAT ROLE FOR 5G?

27

mobile data volumes

1,000 times greater than

today’s

battery life of remote cellular

devices stretched to 10 years or more

data rates up to 100 times faster

(more than 10 Gbps)

network latency lowered by a factor of five

increase of the number of devices connected to the

network (1 mln per 1 sq km)

possibility of use of several bands (from

400 MHz to 100 GHz)

5G opportunities

28

Fonte: 5G empowering vertical sectors, 5G PPP

5G: innovative digital use cases

29

Connected devices & data traffic outlook

CAGR 2016-2021 M2M 19% smartphones 11% TOTAL 10%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2016 2021

Connected devices [billions]

M2M

Smartphones

Non-Smartphones

TVs

PCs

Tablets

Other

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

300,0

2016 2021

Global internet traffic by device [Hexabyte/month]

M2M

Smartphones

Non-Smartphones

TVs

PCs

Tablets

Other

M2M connection grow but has a limited impact on internet traffic (dominated by video applications)

Source: CISCO The Zettabyte Era: Trends and Analysis (2017) 30

M2M Connected devices outlook

Source: CISCO The Zettabyte Era: Trends and Analysis (2017)

46%

30%

7%

6%

5% 2% 2%

1% 1%

Global M2M connected devices (2021, total ~14 billion)

Connected Home

Connected Work

Connected Health

Connected Cities

Connected Car

Retail

Mfg and Supply Chain

Energy

Other

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

CAGR (2016-2021)

Connected Home

Connected Work

Connected Health

Connected Cities

Connected Car

Retail

Mfg and Supply Chain

Energy

Other

31

Data Management Depending on the sampling rates, number of parameters detected and overall number of sensors/actuators, digital energy will produce a remarkable amount of digital data. This data have to be processed in order to extract useful information and transfer valuable knowledge to end-users or economic/institutional actors

variety

value

volume

velocity

validity

5V for BIG DATA

MANAGEMENT + security

32

Data Market Value in EU (1/2)

22%

22%

12%

8%

6%

5%

4%

3%

3%

15%

United Kingdom Germany France Italy Netherlands

Spain Sweden Poland Belgium RoEU

22%

20%

14%

11%

10%

6%

4%

4% 3%

3% 3% 0%

Mining, Manufacturing Financial services Professional services Retail and wholesale

Information & communications Public administration Transport and storage Utilities

Home Healthcare Education Construction

Total value 2016: ~ 60 billion € (utility: 2,5 billion €)

Source: I-Com on IDC data (2017) 33

Data Market Value in EU (2/2)

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020BaselineScenario

2020 HighGrowthScenario

Data Market Value [M€]

RoEU

Belgium

Poland

Sweden

Spain

Netherlands

Italy

France

Germany

United Kingdom

Total value 2020: 80 – 107 billion € (CAGR 2020/2016: 7,5% - 15,7%)

Source: I-Com on IDC data (2017) 34

Big Data analysis (1/2)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

All enterprises, withoutfinancial sector

Electricity, gas, steam, airconditioning and water supply

ICT

Retail trade

0102030405060708090

100

All enterprises, withoutfinancial sector

Electricity, gas, steam, airconditioning and watersupplyICT

Retail trade

Analyze Big Data from any data source (% of all firms > 10 employees)

Analyze Big Data from social media (% of firms analyzing Big data)

0102030405060708090

100

All enterprises, withoutfinancial sector

Electricity, gas, steam, airconditioning and watersupplyICT

Retail trade

Analyze Big Data from smart device & sensors (% of firms analyzing Big data)

Source: I-Com on EUROSTAT data (2017) 35

Big Data analysis (2/2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

All enterprises, without financialsector

Electricity, gas, steam, airconditioning and water supply

ICT

Retail trade

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

All enterprises, without financialsector

Electricity, gas, steam, airconditioning and water supply

ICT

Retail trade

Outsourcing (% of all firms > 10 employees) In-house (% of all firms > 10 employees)

Source: I-Com on EUROSTAT data (2017) 36

Consumers’ participation in the energy market

Digitalization in the energy sector, what

does it means?

App for energy

DSM & Dynamic pricing

Gamification

Block chain

Energy Crowdfunding

37

Consumers’ participation in the energy market – state of art of demand response & dynamic pricing

Source: SEDC, ACER/CEER

Explicit Demand Response state of art in Europe - 2015

Implicit Demand Response state of art in Europe - 2015

38

Consumers’ participation in the energy market – apps for energy

Elemize Promotes energy efficiency through cloud analysis and communication in real time of a building’s energy consumption, resulting in an energy saving strategy

Energy cost calculator Equation-based system that calculates energy costs. The app uses several equations to calculate the cost of an electronic item. The app show users their energy usage per day, week, month and year as well as the carbon emission per year

Green outlet Allows consumers to figure out what appliances in the house use the most energy. After entering some personal data, the app will calculate the average monthly cost

Lotus greens carbon calculator

Seeks to ensure that the goals of urban development and environmental sustainability are met, helping people to understand how different aspects of their lifestyle and consumption habits affect their personal carbon emissions

Nest Adjusts the temperature according to actual needs and turns off heating in the case of long absences

Watty app Shows how much energy each appliance is using in real time. This helps people to make smart decisions about their energy consumption and gives them the ability to choose what to switch off

39

Consumers’ participation in the energy market – gamification

Gamification (The use of elements

borrowed from the games and game design

techniques in context outside the games).

The huge amount of data available through smart meters can be used to

plan gamification strategy related to energy use,

management and storage.

For example Opower launched a program with Facebook, that involves clients on a voluntary

basis in a “competition” with other customers for

consuming less energy

40

Consumers’ participation in the energy market – the block-chain

Source: PWC (2016)

Blockchain Digital contract

permitting an individual party to conduct and bill a transaction (e.g. a sale

of electricity) directly (peer-to-peer) with

another party. The peer-to-peer concept means that all transactions are stored on a network of computers consisting of

the computers of the provider and customer

participating in a transaction, as well as of the computers of many

other network participants. For example, in Brooklyn, LO3 Energy and Siemens has created a pilot microgrid using

blockchain technology. Residents with solar panels can sell excess energy back to their neighbors, in a peer-to-peer transaction which takes advantage of blockchain.

41

Consumers’ participation in the energy market – (energy) crowdfunding

Crowdfunding

Financial platforms

Lending platforms (money are raised online and investors are repaid

and remunerated over time as a function of the

revenues generated)

Equity crowdfunding (investors became partners

of the new organization)

Hybrid platforms (investors choose among

different investing options as Bonds, company equity, share of local cooperatives,

debts instruments)

Non financial/donation

platforms (strongly socially oriented,

e.g. rural electrification)

Up to October 2015 the energy crowdfunding sector

has overall raised about € 165 million (0,75% of the

crowdfunding volume cumulated worldwide roughly over the same

period of time; 0,02% of 2015 total energy investments)

42

Agenda

(R)Evolution in the energy sector

Smart infrastructures

ICT & energy: possible synergies

Open issues

43

Questioni chiave (1/3)

• Oltre ai citati benefici della digitalizzazione dell’energia per tutti gli attori della filiera energetica (produttori, gestori delle reti di trasmissione e distribuzione, retailer, utenti finali), esistono altre sinergie possibili?

• Quali ulteriori considerazioni possono essere fatte rispetto ai profili di criticità? • La digital energy può essere uno dei tasselli fondamentali per il conseguimento degli

obiettivi di sostenibilità dei settori non-ETS? Se sì, quali le condizioni per sfruttare questo potenziale?

• La regolazione del settore energetico e del settore ICT, è in grado di favorire i processi di contaminazione dei due settori, o esistono degli ostacoli che andrebbero rimossi?

• Come gestire in maniera ottimale gli ingenti flussi di dati che la digitalizzazione dell’energia comporta (in-house vs. outsourcing; piattaforme aggregatrici vs. open access)?

• Come rendere più attrattivo il settore energetico europeo per gli investimenti in digital energy?

• Specularmente, come favorire la competitività delle imprese che operano nel settore della digital energy rispetto a mercati non-europei?

44

Questioni chiave (2/3)

• Si ritiene che la differenziazione dei canali di contatto e la diffusione delle app sostengano effettivamente il processo di “capacitazione” del cliente finale dell’energia?

• Quali spazi per sinergie tra operatori energetici e operatori del mondo digitale (in particolare start-up innovative)?

• Quali sono le reali prospettive di meccanismi innovativi quali il crowdfunding per il reperimento dei fondi e della blockchain nella gestione “disintermediata” delle transazioni all’interno del settore energetico?

45

Questioni chiave (3/3)

• Quali sono ad oggi gli ostacoli normativo-regolamentari da abbattere a livello europeo per favorire lo sviluppo del 5G?

• La gestione dello spettro rappresenta uno dei temi senza dubbio più caldi. La presenza di politiche di gestione delle risorse frequenziali diverse a livello di singoli stati membri rappresenta senza dubbio un vulnus per l’Unione in un’ottica di competizione col resto del mondo. Quali possono essere le azioni da compiere per far sì che l’Europa conquisti un ruolo da protagonista nello sviluppo del 5G?

• Quali sono gli ostacoli tecnici da risolvere? • Quali si ritiene saranno i primi ambiti di applicazione del 5G e quali i reali benefici per il

settore energetico?

46

Piazza dei Santi Apostoli 66 00187 Roma tel. +39 06 4740746 fax +39 06 40402523 Rond Point Schuman 6 1040 Bruxelles tel. + 32 (0) 22347882 info@i-com.it www.i-com.it 47