presentation urban transport

Delft University of Technology

Innovative Policies for Implementing

Intelligent Speed Adaptation on Urban Roads

Faculty of Technology, Policy and ManagementDelft University of Technology, The Netherlands

Urban Transport Conference 200613th July 2006


Structure of presentation

• Background

Safety issue on road and contribution of Intelligent Speed Adaptation to traffic safety goal

• Problem

Uncertainties related to implementation of ISA in real world and shortcomings of traditional policymaking

• Adaptive Policymaking Approach

Alternative approach for policymaking

• Development of an Adaptive Policy for the Implementation of Intelligent Speed Adaptation

• Conclusions and Recommendations


Background

ROAD TRANSPORT PROBLEM

• Safety is one of the major concerns of the transportation system.

• 40,000 fatalities and 1.7 million injuries due to road traffic accidents in the EU.

• Speeding of vehicles contributes to 1/3 of road accidents.

• Various actions have been taken to combat the problem of speeding but still the target has not been achieved.

• Enforcing current speed limits has the potential to reduce fatalities and injuries substantially.


TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION

Intelligent Speed Adaptation

•By automation Advisory Voluntary Mandatory

•By function Fixed Variable Dynamic

Beacon

GPS

Background


UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO ISA IMPLEMENTATION

•User acceptance

•Technological uncertainties

•Driver behaviour

•Organisational and Legal uncertainties

•External factors like transport demand and technological development affecting the road transport system

•… …

WHY UNCERTAIN? : Has been tested only by small scale implementation and simulation studies under ‘laboratory’ conditions.

Hence effect of large scale implementation in real world is uncertain.

Problem


Identify the problem

Analyze and compare alternatives

Selection & screening of alternatives

Develop scenarios

Decide on outcomes of interest

Specify objectives

Implement alternative or policy

Monitor and evaluate results

Traditional policymaking

SHORTCOMINGS OF TRADITIONAL POLICYMAKING

•Single static policy

•Assumptions go wrong or trend breaking scenario

•No rethinking about the policy in accordance with the changing information in the system.

Problem


• Does not attempt to “see the future”, but adapts to changing conditions

• An adaptive plan includes • near-term actions• ways to monitor changes in

external factors• actions to take in the future for

a range of external developments

• An adaptive plan responds to changes over time and makes explicit provision for learning

Adaptive Policymaking Approach

Source : Walker et al. 2001

Definition of success

Definition of success

ObjectivePolicy set:

ISA

1: Stage Setting

Necessary conditions of success Policy Actions

2: Assembling the Basic Policy

Vulnerabilities

Mitigating Actions

Hedging Actions

Signposts Triggers

3: Specifying the rest of policy

Defensive Actions

Corrective Actions

Reassesment

Other actions,unforeseen events

and changingpreferences

4. Implementation Phase

certain

uncertain

Constraints


Traditional decisionmaking

versus

Adaptive decisionmaking

D1

Today Future

D2

D3

Today Future

Monitor Monitor Monitor

D2D1 D3


• Policy Option:

Considering the accident scenario in NL, measures taken to reduce speed on road, and speed accident relationship and positive effects of ISA in reducing accidents Intelligent Speed Adaptation is selected as a policy option that should be implemented.

• Constraints :

•Financial constraint

•Congestion on the road should not increase due to ISA implementation

•Average travel time on the road should not increase due to ISA implementation

•Air & Noise pollution should not increase due to ISA implementation

• Definition of Success :

• Reduction by 25% in fatalities and 22%, in hospitalised victims due to road accidents by 2010 (as compared to the figures of 2003)

• Attaining V90 – speed of 90% of vehicles must be within the speed limit

• Objective:

Reduction in traffic fatalities and hospitalised victims due to speeding of vehicles on road. (Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management as problem owner)

Developing an Adaptive Policy for ISA ImplementationStep 1 - Stage setting


Step 2 - Assembling the Basic Policy

• Specifying the basic policy [ISA] for implementation

•The basic policy is implemented for unsafe roads, unsafe vehicles, unsafe drivers and unsafe traffic conditions.

Policy Specifications: Urban roads, Cars and Young drivers (18-34 years)

• Necessary Conditions of Success

• Factors like speed, speed distribution and speed offences on urban roads should decrease.

• Availability of reliable communication system and accurate speed data.

• Acceptance among users- penetration level of 60%

•….

Dynamic Voluntary ISA is selected to be implemented


Step 3 – Specifying the rest of the Policy

Vulnerabilities

Mitigating Actions

Signposts

Dependence on the system by the users (uncertain)

•Training programs to use ISA•Customized interface •Installation of black boxes and/or developing user report

•Accidents involving ISA users

•User reports

Low user acceptance (uncertain)

•Incentives •Advertisements, workshops & campaigns •User reports

•Penetration level of ISA

•User reports

Reliability of ISA in times of incidental speed limit (certain)

Temporary vehicle – roadway communication- beacon

Hedging Actions


Step 4 – Implementation Phase• Basic policy is implemented after agreeing upon the basic policy, vulnerabilities, signposts & critical value of the triggers and adaptive responses.• The signposts are monitored and information is collected and when critical trigger level is reached defensive or corrective actions are taken.

Signposts

Defensive action

Corrective action

• Penetration level of ISA

• Increase speeding fines

• Confiscate driver’s license

• Implement ISA on mandatory basis

•Increase the policy scope (driver of all ages or on all road categories)

Trigger • Penetration level less than 1% per month

• If the trigger level causes re-thinking of objectives/constraints, perform reassessment e.g.: malfunctioning of ISA resulted in large accident.


•ISA has positive impact in reducing road traffic fatalities and injuries due to speeding.

• Policies developed by the traditional approach are not flexible to the changing circumstances and doesn’t incorporate learning over time .

•The adaptive policymaking approach is a more logical and systematic procedure to deal with uncertainties compared to traditional policymaking for ISA implementation on large scale.

Conclusions