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PRESENTATION TO THE UBS GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFERENCE8 May 2012New YorkNew York
Andrei MagasinerGroup Corporate Treasurer
AGENDA
UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
THE UK BANKING SECTOR
LLOYDS’ TRAJECTORY
ON THE HORIZON
SUMMARY
1
UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOKOverview
Growth driven by a diversified business mixEase of doing business is highFloating currency provides flexibility
STRUCTURAL STRENGTHS
Floating currency provides flexibility
MANAGEABLE Despite the crisis government finances are manageableMANAGEABLE GOVERNMENT
FINANCES
Despite the crisis, government finances are manageablePolitical and social will to manage debt downLong maturities and deep sovereign debt market
POSITIVE Consensus expectation: UK is diverging from EurozonePOSITIVE OUTLOOK
p g gSlow but steady recovery in the UK
2
FAVOURABLE FUNDAMENTALS HELP THE UK OUTLOOKThe UK has a strong productivity record, is well diversified
d d i f b iand conducive for business
PRE-CRISIS UK GROWTH WAS STRONG….(1) ….ACROSS A BROAD BASE(2)
2 9%Annual average per capita GDP growth
Business services
Financial intermediation
Di t ib ti
2.4
1 4
2.01.6 1.7
1997 - 20071997 - 2010
2.9%0.4
0.8
Other productionManufacturing excl
electricalElectrical, telecoms
Distribution1.41.2
1.61.3
1.0 1.0
0.5
1.0
0.2
0.70.10.5
0.5
£ DEPRECIATION HELPS COMPETITIVENESS
UK France Japan ItalyUSA Germany,
EASE OF DOING BUSINESS IN UK HIGHER(3)
110120130140
110120130140 Range: Germany, France,
Italy, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Portugal.
Ranking (out of 183 countries)7th
44th
10th19th
29th 30th
87th
Real Effective Exchange rate; 1999=100
708090100110
708090
100110
UK
87th100th
3
707099 02 05 08 11 IRUK GE FR PT SP IT GC
(1) Source: Centre for Economic Performance – LSE (2) Source: GVA, market economy(3) World Bank Oct 2011 ‘Doing Business’ report
MANAGEABLE GOVERNMENT FINANCES IN THE UKRelatively low public debt, long debt maturity and low debt
i i h l k UK’ fi l dj blservicing costs help make UK’s fiscal adjustment manageable
UK DEBT AT MANAGEABLE LEVELS….(1)
WITH LONG MATURITY2017 expected gross public debt(1)
140
120
Average term to maturity in 2012(2)
15
60
100
80
0
10
5
...AND LOW CREDIT RISK PREMIUM FISCAL ADJUSTMENT IS MODERATE
GE IR IT GCFR UK SP PT UK GE SP PTGC FR IT IR
5 year sovereign CDS spreads in bps 2012 13 reduction in primary budget deficit(1)
5
4450
600
450
600
Range: Germany, France, Italy, Spain
5-year sovereign CDS spreads in bps 2012-13 reduction in primary budget deficit(1)
As % of GDP
GE SP GC IRFR PT UK IT0
2
1
3
0
150
300
0
150
300
UK
4
GE SP GC IRFR PT UK IT0009 10 11 12
(1) Source: IMF, April ’12 World Economic Outlook(2) Source: IMF, April ’12 Fiscal Monitor
EUROZONE OUTLOOK WORSENING RELATIVE TO UKConsensus forecasts for UK 2012 GDP growth have fallen, b f h E h i d ibut for the Eurozone they now point to a deeper recession
EUROZONE’S GROWTH PROSPECTS WEAKENCONSENSUS FORECAST ON 2012
JOB MARKET OUTLOOK WORSEN TOOCONSENSUS FORECASTS ON 2012CONSENSUS FORECAST ON 2012
REAL GDP(1)CONSENSUS FORECASTS ON 2012
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(1)
y/y % change; year-average ILO measure of unemployment; year-average; in %
2
2.5UK
10.5
11
1
1.5Eurozone
9.5
10Eurozone
0
0.5
8
8.5
9
UK
-1
-0.5
Jan 11 Jan 12Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Apr 127.5
8
Jan 11 Jan 12Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Apr 12
5(1) Source: Consensus Economics
CURRENT UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Slow but steady recovery
GDP Flat in 2012, with modest recovery in 2013
UK BASE RATE To remain at current low levels into 2013
UNEMPLOYMENT Peaking at around 9% in 2013
PROPERTY PRICES Broadly flat
6
AGENDA
UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
THE UK BANKING SECTOR
LLOYDS’ TRAJECTORY
ON THE HORIZON
SUMMARY
7
UK BANKING SECTOR RESILIENCEUK banks have been proactively strengthening their balance h i h f h i isheets since the start of the crisis
IMPROVED FUNDING(1)ROBUST CORE TIER 1 CAPITAL(1)
12% 160%
Loan to deposit ratioCore tier 1 capital ratio
10%
140%
10.7%
145%
6%
8%
120%
6.6%
113%
2%
4%
100%
0%
2%
2008 H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 201180%
2008 H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 2011
8
2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011
(1) Median core tier 1 and loan to deposit ratio of Lloyds, Barclays, RBS & HSBC, source: Company reports, Lloyds Banking Group calculations
UK BANKING SECTOR RESILIENCE… as a result, UK banks passed both the EBA stress and
i lcapital test
NUMBER OF FAILING BANKS2011 EBA STRESS TESTS(1)
ADDITIONAL CAPITAL REQUIRED:DEC 2011 EBA CAPITAL EXERCISE(2)2011 EBA STRESS TESTS(1) DEC 2011 EBA CAPITAL EXERCISE(2)
10 35.0€bn
8
25.0
30.0
4
6
15.0
20.0
25.0
10.0
0
Irela
nd
Gre
ece
Cyp
rus
Spai
n
Portu
gal
Uni
ted
King
dom
Italy
Aus
tria
Ger
man
y
Slov
enia
0.0
Gre
ece
Uni
ted
King
dom
herla
nds
Cyp
rus
Spai
n
Portu
gal
Italy
Aus
tria
Ger
man
y
Slov
enia
Fran
ce
Belg
ium
Nor
way
9
P KGS K
Net
hPG SB
(1) Other countries that also had no banks failing were: France, Belgium, Norway, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Sweden & Denmark(2) Other countries that also required no additional capital: Ireland, Luxembourg, Sweden & Denmark
AGENDA
UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
THE UK BANKING SECTOR
LLOYDS’ TRAJECTORY
ON THE HORIZON
SUMMARY
10
ACCELERATING BALANCE SHEET STRENGTHSubstantial reduction in our loan to deposit ratio, underpinned b i l i iby strong capital position
LOAN TO DEPOSIT RATIO CAPITAL POSITION
148%16.2%
15.6%
130%
135% 14.8%
116%
105%109%
10 0%
11.0%10.8%
Mar 2011 Mar 2012Dec 2011
10.0%
Mar 2011 Mar 2012Dec 2011
Core Group
Mar 2011 Mar 2012Dec 2011
Core tier 1 Total capital
Mar 2011 Mar 2012Dec 2011
11
Now targeting a long term loan to deposit ratio for the Group of 120%
WHOLESALE FUNDINGFalling funding requirement and increasing liquidity
WHOLESALE FUNDING MATURITYPROFILE
WHOLESALE FUNDING £231BNPROFILE
> 1 year 60%£bn
298
251
326
(8)%2 – 5 years
£58bn
>5 years £57b
50%
55%60%
23150% £57bn
1 – 2 years£25bn
50%45%
60%
50%
£55bnmoneymarket
£13bnCGS
£23bnterm45% 40%
Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Mar 2012Dec 2009 Less than 1 year£91bn
Primary liquid asset coverage£106bn
term
12
< 1 yr > 1 yr £106bn
WHOLESALE FUNDING2012 term funding plan already completed
WHOLESALE TERM ISSUANCE(1)£bn
4.4
2.5
24.7 24.7
1.7
4.7 1.9 7.5Unsecuredissuance11.2
2012 SUMMARY
Term funding 13.9
3.9
1.10.6
Privateissuance
completed
No benchmarks planned(2)
10.0
17.2
Publicissuance
Securedissuance13.5
Modest opportunistic issuance possible
Q1 2012 Liability Apr 2012 Total TotalPre-funding
13
Q1 2012 LiabilityMgmt
Apr 2012 Total TotalPre fundingfrom 2011
(1) LTRO not included(2) Issuance does not include related NLGS activity, which we will participate in fully
WHOLESALE FUNDINGAccess to a wide variety of funding products and sources
PUBLIC TERM ISSUANCE FOR 2012BY CURRENCY
PUBLIC TERM ISSUANCE FOR 2012BY PRODUCT BY CURRENCYBY PRODUCT
33% 39% 8%
40%
28%
8%
24%28% 28% 24%
SecuritisationsCovered bondsMedium term notes
EuroUSDOtherGBP
14To April 2012To April 2012
WHOLESALE FUNDING Successful term funding over the last few years
TERM FUNDING£bn
50.0
Successful track record
35.3
Successful track record of term funding
Issuance levels are sustainable
Flexibility for additional i
24.7
issuance
Continue to expect £20 –£25bn of wholesale term£25bn of wholesale term funding per year
20112010 2012
SecuritisationMedium term notes
15
CapitalCovered bondsTerm repo
DELIVERING OUR STRATEGYFour key pillars to be the best banks for customers and h h ldshareholders
Continue to STRENGTHENour balance sheet and
liquidity position
Robust CORE TIER 1 RATIO and stable funding base
RESHAPE our business portfolio to fit our assets,
capabilities and risk appetite
Sustainable, predictable RoE, in excess of our CoE
capabilities and risk appetite
SIMPLIFY the Groupt i ilit i
Significant cost savings and
INVEST t
to improve agility, service, and efficiency
positive operating JAWS
INVEST to grow our core
customer businesses
Strong, stable, high quality EARNINGS streams
16
AGENDA
UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
THE UK BANKING SECTOR
LLOYDS’ TRAJECTORY
ON THE HORIZON
SUMMARY
17
CAPITAL: CRD IVCapital adequacy to remain solid at Lloyds
Estimated impact if applied to December 2011 core tier 1
Date of rule change
January2013
RWA increases largely from derivative valuation adjustments, changes in definition of default for retail mortgages and insurance allowances
to December 2011 core tier 1
c. £25-30bn RWAs c. (0.8)%– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –Proforma c. 10.0% core tier 1
change
Insurance deduction and other transitional adjustments including excess expected losses
Impact: c. (0.25)% paPermanent adjustments
2014–2018Transitionalrules
losses
Illustrative impact: (1.6)%
j
Phased deduction of residual deferred tax assets
Diminishing adjustments
December 2011:– Core tier 1 ratio with CRD IV 2013 rules: c.10.0%– Core tier 1 ratio with fully implemented CRD IV rules: illustrative 7.1%
All impacts are before any further mitigating actions, earnings progression or capital benefits of future non-core run down
18Estimates based on applying CRD IV (as issued July 2011) to Lloyds Banking Group consolidated position as at 31 December 2011
o co e u do
SENIOR UNSECURED BAIL-IN WOULD BE UNNECESSARYSenior unsecured debt is protected by significant loss b b Ll dabsorbency at Lloyds
CAPITAL STRUCTURE – DEC 2011
£79bn
£55bn Ineligible sub debt
Tier 2
Core tier 1
Tier 1
R l t A ti (1)
Core tier 1
19
Regulatory Accounting(1)
(1) Excludes regulatory deductions on core tier 1 (£5bn), tier 2 (£14bn)
INDEPENDENT COMMISSION ON BANKING – RINGFENCING Most of Lloyds’ business would be in the ring fenced bank
POST ICB ENTITIESINDICATIVE SIZE (2014)INDICATIVE SIZE (2014)
ICB follow up still under discussion
c. 20%Insurance
Insurance unaffectedc. 10%
c. 70%
Non-ring fenced bank is expected to include non-EEA, financial institutions and tradinginstitutions, and trading bookRing fenced bank (RFB)
Non-ring fenced bank (NRFC)Insurance
20
CREDIT RATING AGENCIESLloyds’ underlying strength and stability should be
i d b h i i irecognised by the rating agencies over time
Over time, the rating agencies will Lloyds continues to strengthen its balance characterise Lloyds by its underlying core
business again sheet and is managing rating agency
headwinds
“ Th h l b i£bn
245%coverage
“...There has also been an ongoing reduction in non-core assets, strengthening of liquidity, completion of the integration of HBOS, and indications that th t hi h l l f i i t
Wholesale term funding with maturity
223
Short-term wholesale funding
g the recent high level of impairments may have peaked.” Moody’s, 29 November 2011
“ h d l i i h ld b
funding with maturity < 1 year
117
wholesale funding “…the underlying picture should be ... a return to increasing efficiency and profitability as the group develops its deep franchise, multiple brands, economies of
l d i i ”
Unencumbered collateral36
91
“[Lloyds will be] potentially one of the least
scale and pricing power” Fitch, 17 January 2012
Primary liquid assets
10655
21
complex banks globally” S&P, 29 November 2011Mar 2012
AGENDA
UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
THE UK BANKING SECTOR
LLOYDS’ TRAJECTORY
ON THE HORIZON
SUMMARY
22
SUMMARYWell placed to realise over time the Group’s full potential for
hgrowth
Floating currencyDiverse and flexible economyFiscally Responsible Government
UK ECONOMY y p
UK BANKING SECTOR
Strong and supportive institutionsProactive in the crisisSECTOR Proactive in the crisis
Resilient core business performance despite environment
LLOYDSp p
Continuing Balance Sheet improvement with lower riskLower steady-state funding requirement
ON THEHORIZON
Well prepared for implementation of planned reformsOver time, rating agencies will refocus on Lloyds’ recognised
23
underlying strengths
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS AND BASIS OF PREPARATION
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTSThis presentation contains forward looking statements with respect to the business strategy and plans of the Lloyds Banking GroupThis presentation contains forward looking statements with respect to the business, strategy and plans of the Lloyds Banking Group,its current goals and expectations relating to its future financial condition and performance. Statements that are not historical facts,including statements about the Group or the Group’s management’s beliefs and expectations, are forward looking statements. Bytheir nature, forward looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstancesthat will occur in the future. The Group’s actual future business, strategy, plans and/or results may differ materially from thoseexpressed or implied in these forward looking statements as a result of a variety of risks uncertainties and other factors includingexpressed or implied in these forward looking statements as a result of a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors, including,without limitation, UK domestic and global economic and business conditions; the ability to derive cost savings and other benefits,including, without limitation, as a result of the integration of HBOS and the Group’s simplification programme; the ability to accesssufficient funding to meet the Group’s liquidity needs; changes to the Group’s credit ratings; risks concerning borrower orcounterparty credit quality; instability in the global financial markets including Eurozone instability; changing demographic andmarket related trends; changes in customer preferences; changes to regulation accounting standards or taxation including changesmarket related trends; changes in customer preferences; changes to regulation, accounting standards or taxation, including changesto regulatory capital or liquidity requirements; the policies and actions of governmental or regulatory authorities in the UK, theEuropean Union, or jurisdictions outside the UK, including other European countries and the US; the ability to attract and retainsenior management and other employees; requirements or limitations imposed on the Group as a result of HM Treasury’sinvestment in the Group; the ability to complete satisfactorily the disposal of certain assets as part of the Group’s EC state aidobligations; the extent of any future impairment charges or write-downs caused by depressed asset valuations; exposure toob gat o s; t e e te t o a y utu e pa e t c a ges o te do s caused by dep essed asset a uat o s; e posu e toregulatory scrutiny, legal proceedings or complaints, actions of competitors and other factors. Please refer to the latest AnnualReport on Form 20-F filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission for a discussion of certain factors together withexamples of forward looking statements. The forward looking statements contained in this presentation are made as at the date ofthis presentation, and the Group undertakes no obligation to update any of its forward looking statements.
BASIS OF PRESENTATIONThe results of the Group and its business are presented in this presentation on a combined businesses basis and include certainincome statement, balance sheet and regulatory capital analysis between core and non-core portfolios to enable a betterunderstanding of the Group’s core business trends and outlook. Please refer to the Basis of Presentation in the Q1 2012 InterimManagement Statement News Release which sets out the principles adopted in the preparation of the combined businesses basis of
24
Management Statement News Release which sets out the principles adopted in the preparation of the combined businesses basis ofreporting as well as certain factors and methodologies regarding the allocation of income, expenses, assets and liabilities in respectof the Group's core and non-core portfolios.
PRESENTATION TO THE UBS GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFERENCE8 May 2012New YorkNew York
Andrei MagasinerGroup Corporate Treasurer