presentation to the nga workforce development policy forum: innovation matters! building competitive...
TRANSCRIPT
Presentation toTHE NGA WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT POLICY
FORUM:
INNOVATION MATTERS!INNOVATION MATTERS!BUILDING COMPETITIVE BUILDING COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN STATESADVANTAGE IN STATES
Rob AtkinsonVice President and Director,
Technology and New Economy Project
Progressive Policy Institutewww.ppionline.org
Waves of Innovation Waves of Innovation Drive Cycles of Drive Cycles of
Growth and ChangeGrowth and Change
Robert D. Atkinson, The Past and Future of America’s Economy: How Waves of
Innovation Drive Cycles of Growth, (Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2005)
Periods in AmericanPeriods in AmericanEconomic HistoryEconomic History
_____________________________________________
Period Years
_____________________________________________
Mercantile/craft 1840s to 1890s
Factory-based industrial 1890s to 1940s
Corporate mass production 1940s to 1990s
Entrepreneurial, knowledge-based 1990s to – ??
The New Economy’s The New Economy’s Information Information
Technology System is Technology System is Driving Two Big Driving Two Big
Economic Waves That Economic Waves That Will Have Significant Will Have Significant
Impacts on the Impacts on the Workforce and Labor Workforce and Labor
MarketsMarkets
The New Economy’s The New Economy’s Productivity BoomProductivity Boom
Manufacturing Services 1979-90 2.6% 0.4%
1990–96 3.5% 0.2%
1996–20025.0% 1.7%
So what does all this mean?So what does all this mean?
1) 1) New Competitive New Competitive Challenges: Is it déjà Challenges: Is it déjà vu all over again?vu all over again?
Total Income Growth By Total Income Growth By Region, 1969-2003Region, 1969-2003
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
NE ME GL PL SE SW MT PC
The Disappearing Middle The Disappearing Middle JobJob
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
job change99-02
1 2 3 4 5
Wage quintile
Employment Change by Employment Change by Wage and Skill Level, 1999-Wage and Skill Level, 1999-
20022002
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
higher wage middle wage lower wage
low skill
medium skill
high skill
And It’s Expected to And It’s Expected to ContinueContinue
0
5
10
15
20
25
1,000s of jobs2002-2012
46K andabove
34K to46K
25K to34K
20K to25K
0 to 20K
Occupational Mix of Jobs Occupational Mix of Jobs Likely to be Offshored by Likely to be Offshored by
20152015Income Quintile # of Jobs Share
$46K 1,095,4003 21.3% $33.5 to $46 426,200 16.1%$25 to $33.5 1,059,900 33.4%$20,5 to $25 584,200 18.4%$14.9 to $20.6 10,600 0.3%
Total 3,176,300
What Should States Do?What Should States Do?
1. Make sure you are the “Boston” of the New Economy, not the “Upstate New York”.
What Should States Do?What Should States Do?
1. Make sure you are the “Boston” of the New Economy, not the “Upstate New York”.
2.2. Address the growing labor Address the growing labor market bifurcation by making market bifurcation by making the workforce development the workforce development system an agent to foster high-system an agent to foster high-performance workplace performance workplace innovation.innovation.