Presentation to the ‘future international climate change action’ stakeholder meeting

on behalf of Environmental Defence Society (EDS)

Roland SapsfordSustainability Solutions Consulting

The Planet and Us

FCCC goal:

"stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."

requires a global atmospheric concentration

target……

…………….translated into meaningful

national goals, with feedback and review

• New Zealand advocates internationally for

– a long-run atmospheric concentration target of 350-400ppm of CO2 equivalent, together with a medium term concentration target of 450ppm.

– a series of linked national targets covering the period 2010 to 2050 for reductions in gross emissions.

• New Zealand's near-term national emissions targets are translated into realistic, non-binding sectoral targets.

Concentration Targets #1

Concentration Targets #2

• Any meaningful concentration target is likely to be overshot, which means

– Abrupt climate change is more likely.

– Removals will become a separate and additional goal on top of emissions reduction.

which implies…..

Concentration Targets #3

• Negotiations needs to begin on 'rapid response framework' - mechanisms and triggers (both adaptation and mitigation).

• Carbon capture and storage will be primarily about rapid biological capture of atmospheric carbon, rather than new fossil fuel emissions.

• Emission "offsets" will disappear as a concept within 10-15 years.

• Land use and land use change and forestry needs to be treated as an integrated package rather than separating out agriculture, forestry and broader carbon accounting.

Our Future as NZ Inc #1

• New Zealand has most to gain from adopting a national position that encourages innovation and true least-cost abatement, domestically and internationally:

• Clear price signals, good information, and robust institutions.

• Focus on opportunities for New Zealand, rather than shielding sectors and slowing adaptation to carbon-constraints.

Our Future as NZ Inc #2

• Ambitious and achievable responsibility target

• Sufficient flexibility to allow us to set a good example

• Domestic investment decisions in agriculture and transport need be consistent with the aim of least-cost reductions in emissions.

Our Future as NZ Inc #3

• Mitigation potential is substantial in agriculture and transport, but incentives and institutions need work

• Agriculture: 15-30% below present levels by 2020

• Transport: 15-40% below present levels by 2020

• Climate impacts on these sectors are also likely to be significant

Some points for the mix….

• Work towards concentration target plus sequence of national targets with revision points

• Relax focus on flexibility re offsets, and work for opportunities in removals instead

• Boundaries and sectoral deals need to make sense from New Zealand Inc's perspective