presentation to the fiji australia business council
DESCRIPTION
Reserve Bank of Fiji. PRESENTATION TO THE FIJI AUSTRALIA BUSINESS COUNCIL. THE FIJI ECONOMY: FACING THE GLOBAL CRISIS. Mr Savenaca Narube Governor, Reserve Bank of Fiji 2 December 2008. Reserve Bank of Fiji. OUTLINE. GLOBAL CRISIS EXPOSURE TO TRADE IN GOODS & SERVICES GROWTH OUTLOOK - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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PRESENTATION TO THE
FIJI AUSTRALIA BUSINESS COUNCIL
THE FIJI ECONOMY: THE FIJI ECONOMY: FACING THE GLOBAL CRISISFACING THE GLOBAL CRISIS
Mr Savenaca NarubeMr Savenaca NarubeGovernor, Governor, Reserve Bank of Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
2 December 20082 December 2008Reserve Bank of Fiji
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OUTLINE
• GLOBAL CRISIS
• EXPOSURE TO TRADE IN GOODS &
SERVICES
• GROWTH OUTLOOK
• KEY CHALLENGES AND POLICY
RESPONSES
• SUMMARY
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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SNAPSHOT OF THE FIJI ECONOMY
• Economy declined heavily in 2007
• Recovery to begin this year but low growth
• The trade deficit is widening and exerting pressure on foreign reserves
• Inflation has risen to a 20-year high but to decline to a moderate level in 2009
• Investment has fallen
• Unemployment is rising
• Poverty is worsening
NOW COMES THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS …..Reserve Bank of Fiji
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3.9
3.0
2.2
4.1
5.0
3.9
3.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2004 2005 2006 2007(e) 2008(f) 2009(f)
Forecast @ JulForecast @ OctForecast @ Nov
%
WORLD GDP GROWTH
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook – Nov 08Reserve Bank of Fiji
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2.0
4.2
3.2
2.1
2.62.5
0.70.5
-0.7
2.2
1.5
-0.2
-0.5
1.21.4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
United States Australia New Zealand Japan Eurozone
2007(e) 2008(f) 2009(f)
%
TRADING PARTNERS’ OUTLOOK
Source: World Economic Outlook – Oct 08 & Nov 08
0.10.1
1.61.6
3.23.23.13.1
2.02.0
2.12.1
0.70.7
0.50.5
1.31.3
0.20.2
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
EXCHANGE RATES OF SELECTED CURRENCIES AGAINST FJD
NZD/AUD/EUR/USD
NZD 11%
AUD 16%
2007 2008
USD -14%
EURO -4%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
YEN -26%
YEN
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90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O
NEER 103..05
REER 106.23
Index
2006 20072005200420032002200120001999199819971996 2008Reserve Bank of Fiji
REER/NEER (Monthly Average)
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EXPOSURE TO EXPOSURE TO TRADE IN GOODS TRADE IN GOODS
& SERVICES& SERVICES
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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Reserve Bank of Fiji
US20%
Japan6%
Australia18%
NZ9%
Europe, incl UK22%
Others14%
Pacifc Islands7%
China1%
HK2%Singapore
1%
Source: FIBOS
*Refers to 2007
FIJI’S COMMODITY EXPORT* DESTINATIONS
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100
24
7 5 5 5 40
102030405060708090
100110
MineralWater
Fresh Fish Coral &Similar
Materials
FlavouredWater
Sugar Mahogany Taro
$M
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO US
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 84% of total commodity exports to the US in 2007
Demand Will Slow Down
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125
165
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Sugar Fresh Fish Ginger Coconut Oil
$M
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO EUROPE
*Represents 83% of total commodity exports to the UK, Germany, France & Italy in 2007
Sugar Exports Unaffected
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27
17
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Woodchips Fresh Fish Sugar
$M
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO JAPAN
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 88% of total commodity exports to Japan in 2007
Demand Will Slow Down
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80
17
8 5 4 30
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Garments SweetBiscuits
Textiles Taro UncookedPasta
Gold
$M
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO AUS
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 73% of total commodity exports to Australia in 2007
Garments May Be Affected
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14
11
6
3 3 3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Taro Garments UncookedPasta
Lead Wasteand Scrap
Fresh Fish Molasses
$M
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO NZ
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 48% of total commodity exports to New Zealand in 2007
Demand Will Slow Down
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IMPACT ON EXPORTS
• Slowdown in exports which are demand driven
– Tourism
– Water
– Garments
• Supply driven exports – structural constraints
binding
• Slowdown in growth of total exports
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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Reserve Bank of Fiji
US12%
Japan4%
Australia39%
NZ19%
Continental Europe, incl UK
11%
Others5%Pacifc Islands
6%
Asia4%
VISITOR ARRIVALS* BY COUNTRY
Source: FIBOS
*Refers to 2007
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‘000s
440
298
415 418 398317
374
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f) 2009(f)
ForecastAnnualJan to Sep
VISITOR ARRIVALS
398431
503550 545 539
580
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
600
11%
8%8%3%3%
Growth Under Threat
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‘000s
Reserve Bank of Fiji
4948
0
20
40
60
80
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007 2008(f)
Jan to Sep Annual
VISITOR ARRIVALS - USA
Source: FIBOS
74
6665
58595865
53
62
Already Declining
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‘000s
Reserve Bank of Fiji
6058
0
20
40
60
80
100
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)
Jan to Sep Annual
VISITOR ARRIVALS - EUROPE
Source: FIBOS
91
81
717265
51
71
52
69
Already Declining
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‘000s
Reserve Bank of Fiji
1718
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)
Jan to Sep Annual
VISITOR ARRIVALS - JAPAN
Source: FIBOS
30
242423
26
2023
20
38
Already Declining
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‘000s
Reserve Bank of Fiji
7979
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)
Jan to Sep Annual
VISITOR ARRIVALS - NZ
Source: FIBOS
96
108104
756866
100
49
72
Already Flat
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‘000s
Reserve Bank of Fiji
172145
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007 2008(f)
Jan to Sep Annual
VISITOR ARRIVALS - AUSTRALIA
Source: FIBOS
181
198
176
142
124
98
207
77
118
Key Source of Growth
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Reserve Bank of Fiji
CAD2% Others
2%
AUD21%
GBP6%
USD51%
EUR4%
NZD14%
REMITTANCES* BY CURRENCY
Source: RBF*Cumulative for the period Sep-07 to Jun-08, excluding remittances received in FJD
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188
213232
297311
256
231 231
93
322
44
121134
158
184193
230
171
133
0
35
70
105
140
175
210
245
280
315
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual
Cumulative to August
Forecast
$M
PERSONAL REMITTANCES
Reserve Bank of Fiji
-10%-10%
-22%-22%
Source: RBF & Macroeconomic Committee
Already Declining
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IMPACT ON SERVICES
• Reduce tourist arrivals
– Japan, Europe and US was already declining
– NZ tourists were also flat
– Australia was the growth industry
– Exchange rate will further dampen demand
• Remittances will decline further
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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Australia23%
NZ18%
India2%
Others13%
Japan3%
UK1%
Singapore34%
US3%
China3%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
FIJI’S ORIGIN OF IMPORTS
Source: FIBOS
*Refers to 2007 Total Imports = $2,890m
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345
32
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Aeroplane Parts Medicaments Oil Cake andResidue of Soya
Bean Oil
Anti-KnockPreparations
$M
IMPORTS* FROM UNITED STATES
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 47% of total commodity imports from the US in 2007
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333
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
Cement Clinkers Optical FibreCables
TransportVessesls
Refuse Collectors
$M
IMPORTS* FROM JAPAN
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 21% of total commodity imports from Japan in 2007
Cement & Car Prices Will Rise
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8 8910
24
6168
0
20
40
60
80
Wheat Textiles LiquefiedButanes
CrudeSoya
Bean Oil
AviationTurbine
Fuel
BrownRice
Cream &Milk forInfants
$M
IMPORTS* FROM AUSTRALIA
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 28% of total commodity imports from Australia in 2007
Food Prices Will Drop…
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78
9911
1314
0
5
10
15
Potatoes FrozenSheep Meatwith Bones
Polymers SemiFinished
Products ofIron andNon-alloy
Steel
Cream andMilk forInfants
PrintedPapers
CorrugatedPaper &
Paperboard
$M
IMPORTS* FROM NEW ZEALAND
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 14% of total commodity imports from New Zealand in 2007
Food Prices Will Drop…
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IMPACT ON IMPORTS
• Imports will rise
– Price of cars and auto parts will rise – demand will
drop
– Oil price in Fiji dollar will rise – will partly offset
the lower global price
– Prices of food and manufactured items will drop –
demand may be inelastic
– Cement price will riseReserve Bank of Fiji
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-800 -840-900
-1296
-1530-1665
-2074-2180 -2197 -2213
-726
-1895
-497-594 -604
-700
-943
-1104
-1449
-1184
-1524
-2,750
-2,350
-1,950
-1,550
-1,150
-750
-350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) 2011(f)
Annual Cumulative to September
F$M
*C.I.F Accrual data excluding aircraft
Source: FIBOS and Macroeconomic Committee
5%5% 1%1% 1%1%
TRADE BALANCE
Reserve Bank of Fiji
29%
25%
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INVESTMENT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007(e)
% of GDP
Private
Government
Statutory Bodies & Public Enterprises
Source: FIBOSReserve Bank of Fiji
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GROWTH GROWTH OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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-6.6
1.7 1.41.9
1.2
2.41.9 1.5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2007(p) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) 2011(f)
Forecast @ August 2008 Forecast @ October 2008%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
GDP GROWTH: 2006-2011
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
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MAJOR DRIVERS
• Tourism
• Agriculture –fishing, forestry
• Manufacturing, except garments
• Mining – gold
• Water
Reserve Bank of Fiji
MAJOR DRAG
• Community & social services – Government
expenditure (2010 & 2011)
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Reserve Bank of Fiji
1.3
1.92.1
2.42.7
3.6
4.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
Fiji Tonga Kiribati PNG Vanuatu Sol Is Samoa
GROWTH IN SELECTED PACIFIC ISLAND ECONOMIES
%
Average Growth 2001-2007
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct & Nov 2008) & FIBOS
Growth Is Too Low
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Reserve Bank of Fiji
0.3
1.31.6
3.6
5.4
7.0
8.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Seychelles Fiji Jamaica Mauritius Singapore Maldives Trinidad &Tobago
%
Average Growth 2001-2007
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct & Nov 2008) & FIBOS
GROWTH IN SELECTED SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES
Growth Is Too Low
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KEY CHALLENGES KEY CHALLENGES AND POLICY MIXAND POLICY MIX
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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KEY CHALLENGES
• Safeguarding Fiji’s external position
• Raising exports
• Raising investment
• Raising and sustaining growth
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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BUDGETARY MEASURES
• PRO GROWTH
– 3% of GDP deficit
– Support for priority sectors
Tourism
Agriculture
ICT
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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BUDGETARY MEASURES
• BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUPPORT
– Bio Fuel
– Import Substitution
– Fiji Diaspora
– Increase in tariffs
• INVESTMENT
– Infrastructure development
– Incentives
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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MONETARY MEASURES
• BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
– Credit Ceiling
– Exchange Controls
• INVESTMENT
– Interest rates
– Special approvals
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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GOVERNMENT UNDERLYING BALANCE
Reserve Bank of Fiji
-193
-92-96
-157-168
-146
-220
-180
-140
-100
-60
-20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0$M
Source: Ministry of Finance
% of GDP
Expansionary Stance
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GOVERNMENT REVENUE
Reserve Bank of Fiji
1,4651,386
1,2781,288
1,1211,083
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
$M
Source: Ministry of Finance
% of GDP
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1,3341,2141,2031,232
1,0801,024
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
$M
GOVERNMENT OPERATING EXPENDITURE
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: Ministry of Finance
% of GDPToo High as % of GDP
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GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
216
171
107
129129130
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)
0
1
2
3
4
5$M
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: Ministry of Finance
% of GDPGood Increase…
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GOVERNMENT DEBT
Reserve Bank of Fiji
45 45 43 41
38
77
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b) 2010(b) 2011(b)
Domestic External
4852
5048
% of GDP
48 47 46
Deficit is Sustainable
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6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
J FMAMJ J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S ON D J FMAMJ J A S O
COMMERCIAL BANK’S LENDING RATE
8%
%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2005 2006 2007 2008
Declining …
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5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
New Zealand
PNG
Fiji
Samoa
Australia
%
2006Source: International Financial Statistics
2007Reserve Bank of Fiji
LENDING RATES:FIJI & SELECTED COUNTRIES
2008
Lowest In Region
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-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O
Consumption Investment
COMMERCIAL BANKS’ INVESTMENT & CONSUMPTION
LENDING%
2005 2006 2007
11%
2008
17%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Rising Credit
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7.5
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
8.5
INFLATION
200820072006
% Forecast
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS and Reserve Bank of Fiji
Will Moderate
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883
1016
1116
1045
948 970
1097
908866
959
864
3.4
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oct-08
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 Months of Imports (goods)$M
Months of Imports
Reserve Bank of Fiji
OFFICIAL FOREIGN RESERVESStill Under Pressure
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SUMMARY
• Weak Fundamentals
• Financial Crisis will Reduce Potential
• Four Key Challenges
• Policy Mix
• Growth is too Low
• Agenda to Lift Growth Rests on Exports
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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THANK YOUTHANK YOU
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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HOW DO WE HOW DO WE COMPARE WITH COMPARE WITH
THE ASIAN CRISIS?THE ASIAN CRISIS?
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
INDONESIAN RUPIAH AGAINST USD: 1996-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Rupiah weakened
by 130% in 1997
RUPIAH
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9000910092009300940095009600970098009900
100001010010200103001040010500106001070010800109001100011100
2-Jan 28-Jan 21-Feb 18-Mar 11-Apr 7-May 2-Jun 26-Jun 22-Jul 15-Aug 10-Sep 6-Oct 30-Oct
INDONESIAN RUPIAH AGAINST USD: 2008
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Rupiah weakened by 20% so far in 2008
RUPIAH
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700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
KOREAN WON AGAINST USD: 1996-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Won weakened
by 102% in 1997
WON
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900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
2-Jan 28-Jan 21-Feb 18-Mar 11-Apr 7-May 2-Jun 26-Jun 22-Jul 15-Aug 10-Sep 6-Oct 30-Oct
KOREAN WON AGAINST USD: 2008
Reserve Bank of Fiji
WON
Won weakened by 38% so far in 2008
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20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
THAI BAHT AGAINST USD: 1996-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Baht weakened by 82% in
1997
BAHT
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29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
1-Jan 25-Jan 20-Feb 17-Mar 10-Apr 6-May 30-May 25-Jun 21-Jul 14-Aug 9-Sep 3-Oct 29-Oct
THAI BAHT AGAINST USD: 2008
Reserve Bank of Fiji
BAHT
Baht weakened by 18% so far in 2008
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1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
SINGAPORE DOLLAR AGAINST USD: 1996-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Singapore Dollar
weakened by 20% in
1997
SGD
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1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1-Jan 25-Jan 20-Feb 17-Mar 10-Apr 6-May 30-May 25-Jun 21-Jul 14-Aug 9-Sep 3-Oct 29-Oct
SINGAPORE DOLLAR AGAINST USD: 2008
Reserve Bank of Fiji
SGD
Singapore Dollar
weakened by 3% so
far in 2008
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MAJOR POLICY RESPONSE
• 20% DEVALUATION
• Why devaluation was necessary?
– Currencies of our major trading partners fell against the
US dollar so Fiji goods became expensive
– Competitor Asian currencies also fell drastically against
the US dollar so Fiji lost competitiveness/business
• Needed to compete on price
– Very important to make what we sold cheaper
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00
IMPACT ON INFLATION%
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
Oct-98: 9.1%
Inflation RoseInflation Rose
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11
-7
6
2
13
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
IMPACT ON EXPORTS
Accrual data excluding aircraft
Source: FIBOS
Exports Growth ReboundedExports Growth Rebounded
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4.8
-2.2
1.3
8.8
-1.6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
IMPACT ON GROWTH
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Economy Recovered GraduallyEconomy Recovered Gradually
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97
66
1721
156
0
50
100
150
200
Building &Construction
Manufacturing Electricity, Gas& Water
Transport,Storage &
Communication
Others
$M
COMMERCIAL BANKS’ SPECIAL LOAN APPROVALS BY PURPOSE
(As At 21/11/08)
TOTAL APPROVALS - $356m
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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85
-427-500
119
-28
-600-540-480-420-360-300-240-180-120
-600
60120180
Europe* US Japan NZ Australia
BALANCE OF TRADE - 2007
Source: FIBOSReserve Bank of Fiji
$M
Trade Surplus
Trade Deficit
*UK, Germany, France, Italy
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EXPORTS DRIVEN EXPORTS DRIVEN BY SUPPLY BY SUPPLY FACTORSFACTORS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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125119123106105106125
128 172
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008(f)
Cumulative to September Annual ForecastF$M
SUGAR EXPORTS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
237
165
231234
185
215224
209226225
25%25%
-29%-29%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
38%
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40 39
31
4245
56
62
4843
38
3432
26 2730
32
25
3545
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual Cumulative to September Forecast
TIMBER EXPORTS$M
Reserve Bank of Fiji
10%10%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
18%18%
29%
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93
78 79 81 83
101
117123
98
86
977574
65595959
7169
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual Cumulative to September Forecast$M
FISH EXPORTS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
5%5%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
15%15%
29%
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41
27
3
43
59
89
77
68
85
70
12
34
5461
49 52
66
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual Cumulative to September Forecast$M
GOLD EXPORTS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
54%54%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
926%926%
300%300%
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EXPORTS DRIVEN EXPORTS DRIVEN BY DEMAND BY DEMAND
FACTORSFACTORS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
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387448
555
639
718 733 742683
754792
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(e) 2007(e) 2008(f) 2009(f)
TOURISM EARNINGS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
$M
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
10%10%5%5%
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10
2529
4652
68
87
105
122
135
8177
6356
3935
22228
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual
Cumulative to September
Forecast
$M
MINERAL WATER EXPORTS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
10%10%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
16%16%
5%
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377
344
252270
252
142
109 110 111 111
838080
109
188181179
262281
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual
Cumulative to September
Forecast
$M
TEXTILES, CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR* EXPORTS
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
*Includes Garments, Textiles and Footwear
4%4%
1%1%
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COMMERCIAL BANKS’ PRIVATE SECTOR LENDING
2,4002,4202,4402,4602,4802,5002,5202,5402,5602,5802,6002,6202,6402,6602,6802,7002,720
N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Value Annual Percent Change Credit Ceiling ($2,426m)
9.0%
$M %
2006 2007 2008