Presentation to the Annual Conferenceof theNational Housing Federation 23rd September 2009

Large-scale immigration is a new phenomenonNet migration into England 1964-2006 000sSource: ONS Parliamentary written answer WA91 -17.01.2005 and ONS International Migration Statistics November 2007

and is a matter of public concernSource: MORI Political Monitor: What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today (spontaneous)? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today (spontaneous)? Percentage saying Race relations/immigrants/immigration. (Figures mainly at April except for 74,77, 78 and 82 and Mar 05)

Population projections (millions) - UKSource: Natural Change, High migration and Principal Projection from GAD (2006-based). Balanced migration projection derived from GAD principal and low migration projections

Household Projections to 2031, England

The number of households in England is projected to grow to 27.8 million in 2031, an increase of 6.3 million (29 per cent) over the 2006 estimate, or 252,000 households per year.

Population growth is the main driver of household growth, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase in households between 2006 and 2031.

One person households are projected to increase by 163,000 per year, equating to two-thirds of the increase in households.

By 2031, 32 per cent of households will be headed by those aged 65 or over, up from 26 per cent in 2006.

By 2031, 18 per cent of the total population of England is projected to live alone, compared with 13 per cent in 2006.

The South East region has the largest absolute increase in households of 39,000 per year from 2006 to 2031, a 28 per cent rise from the 2006 level.

The North East region shows the smallest growth in households, at 8,300 per year from 2006 to 2031, or a 19 per cent rise from the 2006 level.

The 2006-based projections show a higher growth in households compared with the 2004-based (revised) projections, equating to an extra 35,000 households per year between 2006 and 2026 in England.

Contents

1. Household projections in England ....2

2. Household projections by region..............................4

3. Drivers of household growth....6

4. Variant projections... .. 6

5. Comparison with previous projections ..... 9

6. Methodology ..... 11

7. Data quality.12

8. Uses of the data 12

9. Accompanying tables ......13

10. Background notes ......14

11. Enquiries...16

HousingStatistical Release

11 March 2009

usingResearchSummary

Number 239, 2007

Household formation reasons38%19%17%25%Net migration is the single largest reason for additional household formation.Source : Estimated from GAD 2006-based population projections and DCLG New Projections of households for England and the Regions to 2026.

COMPLETION OF SOCIAL HOUSING: ENGLAND

Number of Dwellings

Source: DEHG House Building Starts and Completions : England, Table 1a

_1314517639.xls

DWELLING STOCK BY TENURE: ENGLAND (historical series)

Rented from Registered Social Landlords and Local Authorities

Source: DCHG Housing Statistics, Table 104

_1314518454.xls

Source: www.communities.gov.uk/documents/housing/xls/table600

WAITING LIST FOR SOCIAL HOUSING : ENGLAND

_1314514592.xls

ANNUAL INCREASE IN HOUSEHOLDS ON WAITING LIST

FOR SOCIAL HOUSING: ENGLAND

_1314521655.xls

Source: ONS TIM Series

NET NON BRITISH IMMIGRATION

Thousands

_1314515384.xls

DCLG Guidance July 2009

In some areas this guidance will mean giving more priority to people who have been on the waiting list for a long time or more priority for people with strong local connections.

Chart2

0.0224083043-65.1

0.0202423091-40.4

0.0356647223-11.4

0.0712789059-50.1

-0.0135997925-85.3

-0.0062664845-41.2

0.0264412852-19.1

0.0239442077-46.1

0.0324129217-5.5

0.0268777116.2

-0.0208717081-55.4

-0.0145539437-79.4

0.0191096529-47.3

0.035219091634

0.025622771562.9

0.035367805979.6

0.039738322338

0.04582451430.2

0.049989966417.8

0.021888127690.9

0.007729551888.3

-0.013666549944

0.0021366305-13.4

0.0226622526-1.2

0.043166571276.8

0.029431823876

0.027849109355

0.031028671548

0.033533796140

0.0304206016161.6

0.0380188764158

0.0237154074173

0.0205314678154

0.0276966992147

0.0325867766244

0.0183868328204

0.029229979191

0.030568757207

GDP growth

Net migration

Chart1

807814

809540

827886

863623

889041

913800

942154

973748

1003370

1041517

1066217

1088108

1118245

1154685

1175916

Sheet1

Sheet1

0.0224083043-65.1

0.0202423091-40.4

0.0356647223-11.4

0.0712789059-50.1

-0.0135997925-85.3

-0.0062664845-41.2

0.0264412852-19.1

0.0239442077-46.1

0.0324129217-5.5

0.0268777116.2

-0.0208717081-55.4

-0.0145539437-79.4

0.0191096529-47.3

0.035219091634

0.025622771562.9

0.035367805979.6

0.039738322338

0.04582451430.2

0.049989966417.8

0.021888127690.9

0.007729551888.3

-0.013666549944

0.0021366305-13.4

0.0226622526-1.2

0.043166571276.8

0.029431823876

0.027849109355

0.031028671548

0.033533796140

0.0304206016161.6

0.0380188764158

0.0237154074173

0.0205314678154

0.0276966992147

0.0325867766244

0.0183868328204

0.029229979191

0.030568757207

&A

Page &P

GDP growth

Net migration

TSDdownload2

EmploymentReal GDPMigration

DYDCABMIGDP growthNetGross

1948284961

19492944073.3%

19503037733.2%

19513120602.7%

19523122230.1%

19533242013.8%

19543375314.1%

19553492403.5%

19563524830.9%

19573583301.7%

19583594730.3%

19592543619593748324.3%

19602589419603947985.3%

19612618919614039242.3%

19622638219624081411.0%

19632641719634256224.3%

19642673519644489345.5%

19652701819654589572.2%

19662719519664678071.9%

19672683219674793512.5%

19682668219684994284.2%

19692671719695098112.1%ILO unemployment

197026622705212352.2%-65.1%

197126285715317862.0%-40.43.4

197226273725507523.6%-11.44.1

197326897735900097.1%-50.13.1

19742698674581985-1.4%-85.32.9

19752689675578338-0.6%-41.23.7

197626659765936302.6%-19.15.1

197726697776078442.4%-46.15.1

197826861786275463.2%-5.55.1

197927283796444132.7%6.24.7

19802723980630963-2.1%-55.45.7

19812622381621780-1.5%-79.49.9

198225775826336621.9%-47.311.3

198325470836559793.5%3412.2

198426173846727872.6%62.912

198526479856965823.5%79.611.7

198626522867242634.0%3811.7

198727052877574524.6%30.211.3

198828022887953175.0%17.89.1

198928912898127252.2%90.97.4

199029225908190070.8%88.37.1

19912830191807814-1.4%449.3

199227828928095400.2%-13.411.8

199327378938278862.3%-1.212.3

199427525948636234.3%76.811.1

199527887958890412.9%7610

199628231969138002.8%559.5

199728705979421543.1%487.8

199828835989737483.4%1406.9

1999291659910033703.0%161.66.6

2000296040010415173.8%1585.9

2001299230110662172.4%1735.6

2002300780210881082.1%1545.7

2003303750311182452.8%1475.6

2004306830411546853.3%2445.1

2005310400511759161.8%2045.3

2006312940612102882.9%1915.8

2007315360712472853.1%5.6

200831678

1955 Q186530

1955 Q286611

1955 Q388327

1955 Q487772

1956 Q188310

1956 Q288062

1956 Q387862

1956 Q488249

1957 Q189930

1957 Q289886

1957 Q389248

1957 Q489266

1958 Q190692

1958 Q288346

1958 Q390189

1958 Q490246

1959 Q191122

1959 Q2254361959 Q292606

1959 Q3..1959 Q394455

1959 Q4..1959 Q496649

1960 Q1..1960 Q198726

1960 Q2258941960 Q297636

1960 Q3..1960 Q398979

1960 Q4..1960 Q499457

1961 Q1..1961 Q1101037

1961 Q2261891961 Q2101415

1961 Q3..1961 Q3100856

1961 Q4..1961 Q4100616

1962 Q1..1962 Q1101123

1962 Q2263821962 Q2102101

1962 Q3..1962 Q3102688

1962 Q4..1962 Q4102229

1963 Q1..1963 Q1102356

1963 Q2264171963 Q2106635

1963 Q3..1963 Q3107095

1963 Q4..1963 Q4109536

1964 Q1..1964 Q1110294

1964 Q2267351964 Q2112079

1964 Q3..1964 Q3112412

1964 Q4..1964 Q4114149

1965 Q1..1965 Q1113785

1965 Q2270181965 Q2114047

1965 Q3..1965 Q3115147

1965 Q4..1965 Q4115978

1966 Q1..1966 Q1116277

1966 Q2271951966 Q2117016

1966 Q3..1966 Q3117494

1966 Q4..1966 Q4117020

1967 Q1..1967 Q1118595

1967 Q2268321967 Q2120042

1967 Q3..1967 Q3120258

1967 Q4..1967 Q4120456

1968 Q1..1968 Q1124277

1968 Q2266821968 Q2123362

1968 Q3..1968 Q3125673

1968 Q4..1968 Q4126116

1969 Q1..1969 Q1126179

1969 Q2267171969 Q2127176

1969 Q3..1969 Q3127914

1969 Q4..1969 Q4128542

1970 Q1..1970 Q1127431

1970 Q2266221970 Q2130287

1970 Q3..1970 Q3131353

1970 Q4..1970 Q4132164

1971 Q1..1971 Q1130624

1971 Q2262851971 Q2132359

1971 Q3..1971 Q3134356

1971 Q4..1971 Q4134447

1972 Q1..1972 Q1134412

1972 Q2262731972 Q2137781

1972 Q3..1972 Q3138095

1972 Q4..1972 Q4140464

1973 Q1..1973 Q1147750

1973 Q2268971973 Q2148316

1973 Q3..1973 Q3147113

1973 Q4..1973 Q4146830

1974 Q1..1974 Q1143181

1974 Q2269861974 Q2145888

1974 Q3..1974 Q3147360

1974 Q4..1974 Q4145556

1975 Q1..1975 Q1145947

1975 Q2268961975 Q2143596

1975 Q3..1975 Q3143379

1975 Q4..1975 Q4145416

1976 Q1..1976 Q1147793

1976 Q2266591976 Q2146632

1976 Q3..1976 Q3148050

1976 Q4..1976 Q4151155

1977 Q1..1977 Q1151387

1977 Q2266971977 Q2150671

1977 Q3..1977 Q3151838

1977 Q4..1977 Q4153948

1978 Q1..1978 Q1154680

1978 Q2268611978 Q2156130

1978 Q3269641978 Q3157792

1978 Q4271461978 Q4158944

1979 Q1271741979 Q1157581

1979 Q2272831979 Q2164317

1979 Q3273621979 Q3160431

1979 Q4274111979 Q4162084

1980 Q1273341980 Q1160517

1980 Q2272391980 Q2157625

1980 Q3269781980 Q3157306

1980 Q4266861980 Q4155515

1981 Q1264251981 Q1154337

1981 Q2262231981 Q2154532

1981 Q3260931981 Q3156511

1981 Q4259291981 Q4156400

1982 Q1258761982 Q1156855

1982 Q2257751982 Q2158761

1982 Q3256361982 Q3158662

1982 Q4254681982 Q4159384

1983 Q1254101983 Q1161703

1983 Q2254701983 Q2162878

1983 Q3257281983 Q3164749

1983 Q4259171983 Q4166649

1984 Q1260541984 Q1168161

1984 Q2261731984 Q2166946

1984 Q3262621984 Q3167668

1984 Q4263731984 Q4170012

1985 Q1264381985 Q1171785

1985 Q2264791985 Q2174507

1985 Q3265211985 Q3174543

1985 Q4265191985 Q4175747

1986 Q1264961986 Q1178295

1986 Q2265221986 Q2180320

1986 Q3266051986 Q3181303

1986 Q4266841986 Q4184345

1987 Q1267621987 Q1185392

1987 Q2270521987 Q2187336

1987 Q3273141987 Q3191464

1987 Q4275991987 Q4193260

1988 Q1278231988 Q1196410

1988 Q2280221988 Q2197335

1988 Q3282731988 Q3200074

1988 Q4285091988 Q4201498

1989 Q1288121989 Q1202066

1989 Q2289121989 Q2203345

1989 Q3290111989 Q3203548

1989 Q4291241989 Q4203766

1990 Q1291351990 Q1205461

1990 Q2292251990 Q2206551

1990 Q3291191990 Q3204086

1990 Q4289021990 Q4202909

1991 Q1285911991 Q1202798

1991 Q2283011991 Q2202118

1991 Q3281411991 Q3201342

1991 Q4279881991 Q4201556

1992 Q1279771992 Q1201975

1992 Q2278281992 Q2201483

1992 Q3274211992 Q3202482

1992 Q4272701992 Q4203600

1993 Q1273951993 Q1204937

1993 Q2273781993 Q2205868

1993 Q3274371993 Q3207644

1993 Q4275021993 Q4209437

1994 Q1275011994 Q1211750

1994 Q2275251994 Q2214767

1994 Q3277111994 Q3217759

1994 Q4277941994 Q4219347

1995 Q1278081995 Q1220009

1995 Q2278871995 Q2221416

1995 Q3278811995 Q3223366

1995 Q4280211995 Q4224250

1996 Q1280191996 Q1226292

1996 Q2282311996 Q2227368

1996 Q3281291996 Q3229145

1996 Q4282271996 Q4230995

1997 Q1284041997 Q1232700

1997 Q2287051997 Q2234521

1997 Q3286681997 Q3236409

1997 Q4287801997 Q4238524

1998 Q1289531998 Q1240721

1998 Q2288351998 Q2242051

1998 Q3288201998 Q3244595

1998 Q4290111998 Q4246381

1999 Q1290711999 Q1247270

1999 Q2291651999 Q2248905

1999 Q3292921999 Q3252204

1999 Q4294611999 Q4254991

2000 Q1295222000 Q1257799

2000 Q2296042000 Q2259684

2000 Q3296852000 Q3261230

2000 Q4298042000 Q4262804

2001 Q1298662001 Q1265267

2001 Q2299232001 Q2265573

2001 Q3299382001 Q3267163

2001 Q4300432001 Q4268214

2002 Q1300522002 Q1269595

2002 Q2300782002 Q2271044

2002 Q3301282002 Q3273034

2002 Q4301952002 Q4274435

2003 Q1302542003 Q1276082

2003 Q2303752003 Q2277686

2003 Q3304942003 Q3280743

2003 Q4305682003 Q4283734

2004 Q1306492004 Q1285764

2004 Q2306832004 Q2288357

2004 Q3306852004 Q3289441

2004 Q4308522004 Q4291123

2005 Q1310182005 Q1291764

2005 Q2310402005 Q2293078

2005 Q3311382005 Q3294588

2005 Q4312532005 Q4296486

2006 Q1312762006 Q1299301

2006 Q2312942006 Q2301371

2006 Q3313122006 Q3303495

2006 Q4314122006 Q4306121

2007 Q1314312007 Q1308527

2007 Q2315362007 Q2311170

2007 Q3316072007 Q3312926

2007 Q4316112007 Q4314662

2008 Q1316522008 Q1315510

2008 Q2316782008 Q2315629

DYDCUK Workforce jobs (SA) : Total - thousands (LMT table B11)ABMIGross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjustedSeasonally adjusted

Updated on 12/ 9/2008Constant 2003 prices

Updated on 22/ 8/2008

Most immigrants come from outside the EU

SOURCES OF NET MIGRATION

'000's

EMBED MSGraph.Chart.8 \s

A8

EU15

Net Non EU Migration

_1289820159.xls

GAD net immigration assumptions and reality.the scale of future migration has been consistently underestimated.

Source: http://www.mori.com/polls/trends/issues.shtml#1993Actual figures are 60.587 start population, 62.294 end on natural change, 77.236 on principal population and 65.437 on balanced migration basis.