presentation to institute of directors on q2 economic data
DESCRIPTION
National Accounts, Contract ManufacturingTRANSCRIPT
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Ireland’s Return to Growth: Statistical anomaly or real recovery?
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40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterly GDP
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted Quarterly GDP at constant (2012) market prices
Gross Domestic Product
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-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
Gro
wth
Rat
e, %
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Annual GDP Growth Rate
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Annual change of GDP at constant market prices per quarter
Annual GDP Growth Rates
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Economist’s Reaction
• “The boom is back”
• “This is the strongest growth rate recorded since the early 2000’s”
• “...the economy is recovering really rapidly”
• “Stonking”
• “The strength of the recovery is now such that government does not need any additional austerity measures to fix the public finances”
• “Taking all the factors into consideration, these latest numbers are gangbusters...easing the pressure on the fiscal front for Budget 2015...
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Media Reaction
• “Ireland's economy fastest growing in European Union” (The Guardian)
• “Ireland leaves eurozone behind as exports boom” (The Telegraph)
• “Ireland's Economy Surges Ahead of Eurozone” (WSJ)
• “Ireland is a spending nation once again as Celtic Phoenix rises” (Irish Independent)
• “Irish Economy Grows Annual 7.7%, Fastest Pace Since 2007” (Bloomberg)
• “Irish economy charges ahead in the second quarter” (Reuters)
• “Ireland returns to boomtime growth levels” (FT)
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32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterly GNP
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted Quarterly GNP at constant (2012) market prices
Gross National Product
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30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP
GNP
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted GDP and GNP at constant market prices
Quarterly GDP and GNP
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-12.0
-6.0
0.0
6.0
12.0
perc
ent
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Contribution of Domestic Demand and Net Exports to Real GDP Growth
Contribution to Annual Growth
Domestic Economy Net Exports
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32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
C + I + G
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Central Statistics Office
Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant market prices
Domestic Component of GDP
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consumption Investment Government
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant (2012) market prices
Domestic Components of GDP
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consumption Investment Government
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant (2012) market prices
Domestic Components of GDP
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30,000
34,000
38,000
42,000
46,000
50,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exports
Imports
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO: Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted exports and imports at constant market prices
Trade Components of GDP
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10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Service Imports
Service Exports
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Quarterly exports at current market prices
Services Exports and Imports
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10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Goods Exports
Goods Importseconomic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Quarterly exports at current market prices
Goods Exports and Imports
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10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Goods Exports
Goods Importseconomic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Quarterly exports at current market prices
Goods Exports and Imports
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10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Goods Exports
Goods Importseconomic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Quarterly exports at current market prices
Goods Exports and Imports
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10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Goods Exports: National Accounts
Goods Exports: Trade Statisticseconomic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts & Trade Statistics
Quarterly exports at current market prices
Good Exports: National Accounts versus Trade Statistics
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10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National Accounts
Trade Statisticseconomic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts & Trade Statistics
Quarterly exports at current market prices
Good Exports: National Accounts versus Trade Statistics
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-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National AccountsTrade Adjustment
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts & Trade Statistics
Difference between Good Net Exports in Trade Statistics and QNAs
Trade Adjustments in the National Accounts
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96
100
104
108
112
116
Ind
ex V
alu
e
Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14
Value Index
Volume Indexeconomic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Central Statistics Office
Value and Volume of Retail Sales for All Businesses (Jan 2010 = 100)
Retail Sales Index
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94
96
98
100
102
Ind
ex V
alu
e
Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14
Value Index
Volume Indexeconomic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Central Statistics Office
Value and Volume of Retail Sales excluding Motor Trades (Jan 2010 = 100)
Retail Sales Index excluding Motor Trades
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-9.0
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
Ann
ual C
han
ge ,%
Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14
Value Index
Volume Index
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Central Statistics Office
Value and Volume of Retail Sales excluding Motor Trades
Annual Changes in Retail Sales Index
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1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
000s
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Central Statistics Office, QNHS: Table QNQ03
Total employment 2008-2013, seasonally adjusted quarterly data
Numbers Employed
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Questions and Comments Welcome