presentation to dakota county leadership -...
TRANSCRIPT
Presentation to Dakota County Leadership Susan Brower, Ph.D. Minnesota State Demographer June 11, 2014
Topics for
today
2 big demographic trends that will shape your work & community
Your questions and insights
Trend #1:
Population aging will
permanently change our
communities and
workplaces
How many additional “older adults” will Minnesota gain during this decade?
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau
85 55 71 67
47
91
- - - - -
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)
Unprecedented increases in MN’s “older adult” population
85 55 71 67
47
91
285
335
97 66 56
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center Projections
Why are these changes so marked now?
250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2012
Male Female
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
65 years in 2014
Older adults (65+) in 2012 Dakota County ~ 11%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.
Age profile of Dakota County
20000 10000 0 10000 20000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Dakota, 2015
FemaleMale
Sources: MN State Demographic Center Projections
Age profile of Dakota County in 10 years
20000 10000 0 10000 20000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Dakota, 2025
FemaleMale
Sources: MN State Demographic Center Projections
Age profile of Dakota County in 20 years
20000 10000 0 10000 20000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Dakota, 2035
FemaleMale
Sources: MN State Demographic Center Projections
More than 1 in 4 Dakota County residents will be 65+ by 2035
53,107 13%
128,154 27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 203565+, number 65+, percent
Sources: MN State Demographic Center Projections
Older Dakota County residents will outnumber youth for the first time before 2030
53,107
136,947
114,776
110,842
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
65+
Under 20
Sources: MN State Demographic Center Projections
We’re getting older: So what?
• Public costs associated with older adults are high, different demand for services
• Older adults generate less tax revenue
• Aging will change the availability of workers
Labor force growth is projected to slow
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
1.9%
2.7%
1.5% 1.5%
0.9%
0.5% 0.3%
0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Labor force participation of older adults has increased only slightly
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
16 26 36 46 56 66 76 86
Rates of labor force participation 2000 and 2012
2000
2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Dakota County will experience organizational & cultural changes as Baby Boomers retire
60+ 13%
55-59 16%
50-54 15%
<50 56%
Dakota County employees by age (1,720)
Source: Dakota County
Trend #2: Most future growth will be attributable to People of Color
Quiz: Over the decade of the 1960s, People of Color accounted for 1% of the total population growth in Dakota County. What was that percentage in the 2000s?
1%
9% 9%
28%
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010Source: U.S. Census Bureau
A: 81% of Dakota County’s growth between 2000 and 2010 could be attributed to People of Color
1%
9% 9%
28%
81%
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Dakota, 5%
Hennepin, 11%
Ramsey, 13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Proportion of Color Twin Cities Metro Counties
1990: 1 in 20 Dakota County residents were People of Color
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Anoka, 16%
Carver, 10%
Dakota, 19%
Hennepin, 29%
Ramsey, 34%
Scott, 16%
Washington, 15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Proportion of Color Twin Cities Metro Counties
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2012: Nearly 1 in 5 Dakota County residents were People of Color
People of Color >20% in 2000
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.
People of Color >20% in 2008-12
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.
People of Color >20% in 2008-12
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.
Dakota County by race, 2012
White, 81%
Black, 5%
American indian, 0% Asian, 4%
Multi-racial/Other, 2%
Latino, 6%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Some improvement on racial educational attainment gaps, but disparities still large
Source: mncompass.org
High school graduation is no longer enough to get an economic foothold
28%
Percent of jobs requiring some post-secondary education Source: Georgetown University Center on Education & The Workforce
73%
The education of all of our residents is
more important than
it has ever been
Minnesota has a high concentration of talent workers
Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series
High retention: Minnesota-born workforce is more likely to remain in Minnesota.
MN ranks 4th in Degreed Talent retention, and 6th in Creative Talent retention nationally.
Source: MN State Demographic Center analysis of IPUMS
Source: Hermalin and Neidert, 2014.
Which states attract? Which states retain?
Dakota County is approaching the Silver Tsunami from a position of strength…
• Growing & close to other jobs centers
• Relatively young
• Already relatively racially and ethnically diverse
• Organized around the goal of creating Communities for a Lifetime
Aging will bring:
• Change of leadership
• Increased competition for workers
Increased diversity will bring:
• Continued growth
Increased diversity may bring:
• Challenges in finding traditionally-trained workers
..but unprecedented changes & challenges are ahead
Susan Brower [email protected]