presentation on polling results and direction to staff on november 2008 ballot measure july 7, 2008

Presentation on Polling Results and Direction to Staff on November 2008

Ballot Measure

July 7, 2008

Presentation Overview

Review of June 2008 polling results Discussion of LEED Gold building standards

and additional design costs Review of potential operating/maintenance

costs Council discussion and action

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & AssociatesOpinion Research & Public Policy Analysis

Santa Monica, CA – Oakland, CA – Madison, WI - Mexico City

City of Palo Alto Library Bond Measure Refinement Survey

220-2544

June 2008

Fairbank, Maslin,

Maullin & AssociatesOpinion Research &

Public Policy Analysis

Slide 4

Palo Alto Library Bond SurveyPalo Alto Library Bond Survey

600 telephone interviews with Palo Alto voters likely to cast ballots in the November 2008 general election

Interviews conducted between June 12-23, 2008

Margin of sampling error of +/- 4.0%

Selected comparisons to results from February 2007 survey

MethodologyMethodology

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 5


A solid majority of voters continue to view the City as an excellent place to live and feel the City is doing a good job of providing services to local residents.

A significant number of voters are concerned about the economy and the management of the City’s finances.

Voters use the City’s libraries regularly, and perceive them as having at least some need for improvements.

In this context, though the library bond has solid support from a majority of voters, it falls just short of receiving the required two-thirds supermajority.

While the measure can succeed, additional information about why this approach has been chosen to meet the libraries’ needs will be necessary to increase voters’ understanding.

Key FindingsKey Findings

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 6


Issue Context and Issue Context and Mood of the ElectorateMood of the Electorate

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 7


59%

34%

5%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Excellent

Good

Just fair

Poor job

64%

32%

3%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total Total Excellent/Excellent/

Good Good 93%93%

Total Just Total Just Fair/Poor Fair/Poor

7%7%

Voters continue to have an overwhelmingly Voters continue to have an overwhelmingly positive view of Palo Alto’s quality of life.positive view of Palo Alto’s quality of life.

2. Generally speaking, how would you rate the City of Palo Alto as a place to live: is it an excellent place to live, a good place to live, only fair, or a poor place to live?

February 2007 June 2008


Good Good 96%96%


4%4%

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 8


Voters have mixed views Voters have mixed views of the economy.of the economy.

37%

19%

29%

48%

28%

29% 4%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total Worse No Diff. Total Better DK/NA

9. I am going to read you a list of different aspects of life in Palo Alto. Please tell me if you expect that item to be better or worse twelve months from now.

The local economy

Your personal economic situation

I am going to read you a list of different aspects of life in Palo Alto. Please tell me if you expect that item to be better or worse twelve months from now.

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 9


16%

56%

22%

4%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Excellent

Good

Just fair

Poor

DK

4%

30%

34%

10%

22%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Good Good 72%72%


26%26%


Good Good 34%34%


44%44%

Voters like the City’s service delivery, but Voters like the City’s service delivery, but question its financial management.question its financial management.

10. How would you rate the overall job being done by Palo Alto city government in providing services to the City’s residents? 11. How would you rate the job being done by Palo Alto City officials in managing City funds?

Providing City Services Managing City Funds

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 10


58%

53%

25%

24%

13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Main Library

Mitchell Park

Downtown

Children’s Library

College Terrace

Most voters have visited the Main Most voters have visited the Main Library or Mitchell Park within the last year.Library or Mitchell Park within the last year.

17. Which of the following Palo Alto public libraries have you visited within the past year?

Which of the following Palo Alto public libraries have you visited in the past year?

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 11


Two-thirds of voters continue to see at least Two-thirds of voters continue to see at least “some” need for additional library funding.“some” need for additional library funding.

31%

29%

31%

28%

8%

9%

40%

40%

40%

38%

40%

37%

10%

12%

9%

9%

21%

22%

10%

14%

13%

13%

19%

23%

9%

7%

12%

12%

9%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2008

2007

2008

2007

2008

2007

Great Need Some Need Little Need No Need DK/NA

3. I am going to read a short list of public services in the city of Palo Alto. Please tell me if you think it has a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding.

Public libraries

Public schools

Public safety

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 12


Initial Support for a LibraryInitial Support for a LibraryBond MeasureBond Measure

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 13


Language Used to Test Bond Measure Support Language Used to Test Bond Measure Support

PALO ALTO LIBRARY IMPROVEMENT BOND.

To complete improvements to all branch libraries in the City of Palo Alto by:

• replacing the existing Mitchell Park Library and community center;• upgrading and expanding the Main Library;• renovating the Downtown Library;• expanding reading areas and facilities for children; and• providing room for larger collections and improved information

technology;

shall the City of Palo Alto issue $75 million in general obligation bonds, subject to independent audits and citizen oversight?

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 14


34%

23%

6%

5%

8%

12%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Definitely yes

Probably yes

Undecided, lean yes

Undecided, lean no

Probably no

Definitely no

Undecided

TOTALTOTALYESYES63%63%

TOTALTOTALNO NO 25%25%

Voters support the measure by a Voters support the measure by a two-to-one margin, but it falls short two-to-one margin, but it falls short

of a two-thirds majority.of a two-thirds majority.

4. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this potential ballot measure or no to oppose it?

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 15


26%

21%

17%

14%

13%

12%

11%

9%

7%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

A general desire for library A general desire for library improvements underlies voter support. improvements underlies voter support.

5a. In a few words of your own, why would you vote YES on this ballot measure?

(Open-ended; Top responses only; Asked only of “yes” voters)

Facilities Improvements/Renovation (General)/More Comfortable Library

General Positive/Like Library/Libraries Are Important

City/Community Benefits/Libraries Are Backbone Of City

Upgrade Library(s)/Long Overdue/More Modern Library(s)

Education Benefits/Important Knowledge Resource

Personally Use Library(s)

Children Benefit/For The Kids

Funding/Money/Support Is Needed

Facilities Expansion/Larger Library/Relieve Overcrowding

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 16


25%

17%

17%

15%

14%

5%

5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

““No” voters express concerns about theNo” voters express concerns about theeconomy and the potential cost impact.economy and the potential cost impact.

5b. In a few words of your own, why would you vote NO on this ballot measure?

(Open-ended; Top responses only; Asked only of “no” voters)

Cost/Too Expensive/Can't Afford/Poor Economic Conditions

Combination Of Items Included/Not All Libraries Need Improvement

Taxpayer/Bond/Public Funding/Usually Vote No On Bond Issues

General Negative/Don't Care About/Other Issues Are More Important

Facilities Improvements/Renovation/Library(s) Fine As Is

Funding Not Needed/They Have Enough Money/Should Spend More Wisely

Spending Concern/Don't Know Where Money Will Go

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 17


34%

23%

6%

5%

8%

12%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Definitely yes

Probably yes

Undecided, lean yes

Undecided, lean no

Probably no

Definitely no

Undecided



A lower-cost measure excluding A lower-cost measure excluding improvements to the Downtown branch improvements to the Downtown branch

receives less support.receives less support.

4. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this potential ballot measure or no to oppose it?6. If that were the case, would you vote yes in favor of the bond measure or no to oppose it?

$75 Million Bond $71 Million Bond without Downtown

25%

22%

6%

5%

10%

16%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%



Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 18


30%

23%

5%

5%

10%

17%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Definitely yes

Probably yes

Undecided, lean yes

Undecided, lean no

Probably no

Definitely no

Undecided



Support drops slightly when voters Support drops slightly when voters hear the potential cost impact.hear the potential cost impact.

7/8. If that were the case, would you vote yes in favor of the bond measure or no to oppose it?

$25 per $100,000 of Assessed Value

$123 For Median Home

31%

21%

6%

5%

12%

16%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%



Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 19


Ensuring that libraries meet Ensuring that libraries meet earthquake safety standards earthquake safety standards stands out as a top priority.stands out as a top priority.

78%

68%

56%

54%

53%

16%

23%

27%

30%

28%

7%

14%

14%

16%

1%

2%

2%

5%

3%

3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Ext./Very Impt. S.W. Impt. Not Impt. DK/NA

12. I am going to read you a list of specific projects that could be funded by the library and community center bond measure. Please tell me how important it is to you that the project be funded: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important. Split Sample

(Ranked by Total Extremely/Very Important)

Ensuring that all libraries meet standards for earthquake safety

Providing a safe place for children and youth to go after school

Expanding space for books and other items to accommodate a larger collection at the

Library

Providing updated facilities for after-school programs such as homework tutoring

Improving access for disabled persons at the library and community center

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 20


ContinuedContinued

51%

50%

50%

49%

48%

27%

29%

26%

22%

31%

17%

13%

21%

18%

19%

11%

8%

2%

5%

3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%



Offering a dedicated children’s room at the Mitchell Park Library

Upgrading and repairing the Main Library

Providing dedicated quiet spaces for reading

Replacing and expanding the Mitchell Park Library

Building new facilities that meet federal and state standards for environmentally-friendly “green

building”

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 21


ContinuedContinued

48%

47%

45%

45%

44%

23%

31%

35%

34%

34%

19%

15%

16%

17%

17%

4%

7%

5%

10%

4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%



Reducing duplication of facilities and allowing more efficient joint use of library and

community center space

Completing a series of improvements to all of Palo Alto’s branch libraries

Expanding children’s reading areas in the library

Providing air conditioning at libraries that currently do not have any

Improving lighting in libraries to make it easier to locate and read books

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 22


ContinuedContinued

44%

43%

41%

40%

37%

30%

25%

34%

27%

31%

20%

20%

19%

29%

20%

4%

12%

12%

6%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%



Adding group study areas for students at the library

Expanding the Main Library

Offering more computers for public use at the Mitchell Park Library

Preserving the historic character of the Main Library

Upgrading and repairing the Downtown Library

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 23


ContinuedContinued

37%

36%

30%

29%

25%

25%

24%

42%

28%

26%

35%

24% 5%

13%

10%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%



Building a new Mitchell Park Library

Building a new community center at Mitchell Park Library

Building a new community center

Building spaces for community events, programs and meetings

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 24


Messages highlighting current problems Messages highlighting current problems at the library offer the most compelling at the library offer the most compelling

reasons to vote “yes.”reasons to vote “yes.”

44%

42%

32%

31%

36%

37%

43%

41%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Very Conv. S.W. Conv.

13. Here are some statements from people who support this potential library bond measure. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote yes on the measure. *Split Sample

(Ranked by Very Convincing)

80%80%

79%79%

75%75%

*Over 2,500 people visit Palo Alto libraries daily. There is increasing demand for Wi-Fi and internet services, and library use overall

increased ten percent last year. The Mitchell Park Library was built 50 years ago, and is simply too small to meet today’s needs.

Palo Alto libraries have limited space for collections, poor lighting, and need upgrades for earthquake safety or disabled access. This

bond measure will address these vital needs.

*Increasing the space and capacity of the Main, Mitchell Park and Downtown Libraries will increase library collections available

throughout the entire library system.

*The library improvements and building upgrades in this measure have been well planned. The Mitchell Park Library will have

temporary services in the area during the rebuilding process and the new Mitchell Park Library will not affect existing dedicated parkland.

Likewise, renovations and improvements to the Main Library will preserve the historic character of the existing building.

72%72%

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 25


ContinuedContinued

31%

29%

28%

26%

25%

39%

44%

43%

45%

43%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


70%70%

73%73%

71%71%

71%71%

68%68%

This measure has tough accountability provisions including, mandatory independent audits, a citizens’ fiscal oversight committee and no money

for administrators’ salaries.

This measure will make it possible to offer Palo Alto children and teens more safe after-school activities, including tutoring and educational

programs.

*This bond proposal was carefully reviewed by Palo Alto citizens on the Library Advisory Commission, and citizens in the construction industry

say it is the most efficient, cost-effective way to meet the City’s future library needs.

*More than one-third of the cost of repaying the bonds authorized by this measure will be paid by businesses, reducing the impact on Palo Alto

homeowners.

Over the past ten years, the City has been steadily making improvements to all of Palo Alto’s library branches. This bond measure will fund

improvements at the last three branches and complete improvements to the library system.

13. Here are some statements from people who support this potential library bond measure. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote yes on the measure. *Split Sample

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 26


34%

23%

6%

5%

8%

12%

12%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Definitely yes

Probably yes

Undecided, lean yes

Undecided, lean no

Probably no

Definitely no

Undecided



Support falls just short of two-thirds Support falls just short of two-thirds after the messages. after the messages.

Initial Vote Vote After Positive Arguments

34%

22%

9%

5%

9%

13%

7%

0% 20% 40% 60%



4. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this potential ballot measure or no to oppose it?14. Would you vote yes in favor or no to oppose the $75 million bond measure to fund improvements to Palo Alto libraries, including Mitchell Park, Main, and Downtown?

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 27


Negative messages are less compelling, Negative messages are less compelling, but several resonate with voters.but several resonate with voters.

30%

24%

23%

28%

33%

30%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%


15. Here are some statements from people who oppose this library bond measure. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote no on the measure. *Split Sample

(Ranked by Very Convincing)

58%58%

57%57%

53%53%

*We should focus our resources on one or two full-service libraries instead of spending money to upgrade 5 different libraries.

*There are much higher priorities for our tax dollars than improving libraries – like schools, streets and public safety.

With our economy moving into a recession, we simply cannot afford a major tax increase for Palo Alto families that are already

struggling to make ends meet.

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 28


ContinuedContinued

20%

16%

31%

24%

32%13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%


51%51%

40%40%

45%45%

*We just passed a school bond to help local kids, and now the City is asking us to approve more borrowing.

We cannot trust City government to spend the funds from this bond measure properly.

*Nearly all the money from this bond measure will be used to rebuild Mitchell Park Library. Most local residents use other

branches that will not benefit as much from this bond measure.

15. Here are some statements from people who oppose this library bond measure. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote no on the measure. *Split Sample

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 29


Overall, the messages have little Overall, the messages have little impact on support.impact on support.

63% 65%

25% 27% 28%

12%7% 7%

66%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total Yes Total No Undecided

Total Yes 63% 66% 65%

Total No 25% 27% 28%

Undecided 12% 7% 7%

Initial Vote After Positive Arguments After Negative Arguments

4. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this potential ballot measure or no to oppose it?14/16. Would you vote yes in favor or no to oppose the $75 million bond measure to fund improvements to Palo Alto libraries, including Mitchell Park, Main, and Downtown?

Fairbank, Maslin,



Slide 30


Voters continue to use Palo Alto libraries regularly and value them highly; at the same time, they do not view the libraries’ needs as particularly urgent.

There is a broad and solid base of support for a library bond.

However, roughly one-third of voters remain resistant to supporting such a measure.

The community will need additional information about the urgency of the library’s needs – and how a bond measure would be structured to address them – before two-thirds of local voters are likely to cast a vote in favor of such a measure.

ConclusionsConclusions

Project Design Costs and LEED Gold Building Standards

COSTS – FEB 2008 COSTS – MAY 2008

Construction Cost $ 39.5M $ 39.5M

Project Development Cost(design 11-15%, permits, testing, CM, etc.)

$11.4M $9.0M

ContingencyDesign Contingency-10%Construction Contingency-10%

$ 3.9M$ 3.9M

$ 3.9M$ 3.9M

Escalation Cost (for 2-4 years, 8% / yr) $ 16.3M $ 15.3M

Equipment and Technology $ 4.3M $ 4.3M

Temporary Facilities (allowance) $0.6M $0.6M

Total Escalated Project Cost $ 80M $ 77M

LEED Gold (14-year payback period) $ 1.2 M (4.3%) $ 1.3 M (4.6%)

The above does not include financing costs

Libraries (Mitchell, Main, and Downtown) & Community Center Cost Update: May 2008

Libraries (Mitchell, Main, and Downtown) & Community Center Cost Update: May 2008

MITCHELL PARKLIBRARY & CC

MAIN LIBRARYDOWNTOWN

LIBRARY

Construction Cost $ 28.1M $ 9.0M $ 2.4M

Project Development Cost(design, permits, testing, CM, etc.)

$ 6.2M $ 2.3M $ 0.5M

ContingencyDesign Contingency-10%Construction Contingency-10%

$ 2.8M$ 2.8M

$ 0.9M$ 0.9M

$ 0.2M$ 0.2M

Escalation Cost (8% per yr)

$ 9.6M(3 years)

$5.2M(4 years)

$ 0.5M(2 years)

Equipment and Technology $ 2.6M $ 1.4M $ 0.3M

Temporary Facilities (allowance) $0.6M

Total Escalated Project Cost $ 52.7M $ 19.7M $ 4.1M

Eligible for GO bonds Non-eligible for GO bonds

$49.5M$3.2M

$18.3M$1.4M

$3.8M$0.3M

The above does not include financing costs

LEED Gold items(incremental cost increase over LEED Silver)

HVAC System UpgradeNight Sky Radiant CoolingSolar Domestic Hot Water System

Construction subtotalDevelopment costs & contingenciesEscalation (8% for 3 years)Total (rounded)

Annual Maintenance CostsPayback on incremental improvements

$660$95$45

$800$280$220

$1,300

$4214 years

Dollar amounts given in thousands

Potential Operating and Maintenance Costs for Library/Community Center

Facilities

Components of Operating/Maintenance Costs

Custodial/maintenance costs Utility costs Library collection maintenance Furniture and computer replacement Additional library, community center and

facility maintenance staffing (up to 5 full time positions)

The estimated annual cost for these items could range between $750,000 - $1.1 million pending further evaluation and analysis.

Council Action This Evening

1) Should the City proceed with a library/community center bond measure on the November 2008 ballot? If so, should the bond measure include all 3 elements discussed previously (Mitchell Park library/community center, Main and Downtown libraries)?

2) Should the City pursue LEED Gold building standards for the new Mitchell Park library/ community center?

3) Should the City include design costs spent to date ($1.5 million) on the library/community center projects in the bond measure?

Council Questions/Public Comment

presentation on polling results and direction to staff on november 2008 ballot measure july 7, 2008

Documents

palo alto voters

palo alto city government

palo alto city officials

survey methodology slide

action slide

electorate slide

main library

good place