presentation on drivers of landcover and landuse change in kenya
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Presentation on drivers of landcover and landuse change in Kenya 1983 - 2013TRANSCRIPT
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DRIVERS OF LANDCOVER AND LANDUSE CHANGE IN KENYA 1983 – 2013
Mike Norton – Griffiths, Dphil., Snr. Research Fellow, ICRAF.Harvey Herr, GIS Consultant, ICRAF.
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Agricultural Intensity 1983
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Agricultural Intensity 2013
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Agricultural Intensity 1983 2013
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Increase in Agricultural Intensity 1983 2012
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Agricultural Intensity 1983 v. 2013
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Impact of Land Tenure on Agriculture
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The development trajectory of unadjudicated is 40 years behind that of adjudicated land
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Agriculture replaces the Natural Vegetation
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… but at the expense of Herbaceous rather than Tree cover
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Total Tree Cover 1983 2013
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Managed trees (aka trees-on-farms aka agro-forestry) replace natural trees
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Increase in Agroforestry 1983 2013of 215,000 hectares
Woody Crops Ha 29,000Hedgerows and Windrows
Ha 62,000KmKm 207,000207,000
Woodlots Ha 48,000Plantations Ha 16,000Scattered Trees Ha 60,000
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Impact of Tenure on Tree Cover
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Impact of Tenure on Tree CoverAdjudicated Land
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Impact of Tenure on Tree CoverUnadjudicated Land
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Impact of Land Tenure on Tree CoverInvestment in agro-forestry components
Leasehold Freehold Unadjudicated
% Trees managed 83% 88% 56%
% TOF cash 83% 53% 29%% TOF landscape 17% 47% 71%
"Cash" Woody crops, woodlots & plantations
"Landscape" Hedgerows, windrows and scattered trees
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Are Forests doing a good job?Perhaps …..
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Are Forests doing a good job?Mount Elgon
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Are Forests doing a good job?Mau Forest
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Agriculture in the Mau Forest Reserve 2013
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Population Growth and Agricultural Expansion
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Agricultural Intensity withinAgro-Ecological Zones
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Change in Agricultural Intensitywithin Agro-Ecological Zones
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Change in Agricultural Landcover with Rainfall
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Change in Agricultural Landcover with Temperature