16 August, 2014

Managing Climate Change For Productivity

Overview Introduction

Climate Change

Factors Impacting Productivity & Farm Practices

Mitigation Strategies

Project IntroductionFARM VIEW

STRESS ON ENVIRONMENT

Farm Mapping: Climate & Environment

Farming PracticesConventional Practices

Modern PracticesSustainability

Climate & Climate ChangeHigher Average Temp.

Increased Rainfall VariationMore frequent extreme events

EnvironmentPreserve Biodiversity

Fragile Ecosystems

Govt.

Policy Institutions

Private Sector

Community

Farmer

Stakeholders

Stress: Food for thought! Agriculture: Largest water user: 70% of total withdrawal. With backdrop of climate change, water sustainability is even more crucial

Significant nutrient run-off in developed countries, and soil degradation in developing countries: KLS & NLS problem

Maintenance of Biodiversity: Absorbs Shocks due to changing circumstances. Severe deforestation not helping

Agriculture, including deforestation, is 1/3 of greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, climate change mitigation needs to be led from here

Climate ChangeDOES IT IMPACT PRODUCTIVITY?

QUANTIFYING CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT ON INDIA

Does climate change impact productivity?

TFP has increased!

Introduction of Varieties

Market Conditions

Change in Farming Practices

Other Biotic Factors(Eg: Soil, Pests, etc.)

Impact of Climate Variation on Agricultural Productivity and food security in India,

economics e-Journal, Ajay Kumar, Pritee Sharma, IIT Indore.

Increments in max temp has negative impact on rice, maize, bajra, etc.. With high statistical

significance. Increment in rainfall had a negative correlation

with ragi, maize. Overall, there was statistically significant

impact of climate on agriculture.

Sensitivity of cereal ((a,b) maize (mid- to high-latitude and low latitude), (c,d) wheat (mid- to high-latitude and low latitude) and (e,f) rice (mid- to high-latitude)) against temperature change. Results with (green), and without (red) adaptation. Source:Easterling et al. (2007)

What is climate change? Global Impacts

Indirect impacts of climate change

Dependency on rivers fed by precipitation, snowmelt and glaciers some distance away. Soil moisture, Water availability: Water water everywhere but not a drop to drink!

Aphids may be positively correlated with elevated CO2. But full effects on pests and diseases is not certain, due to complex interactions

Direct impacts of climate change

An increase in mean temperature is evident, but the impacts on productivity may depend more on the magnitude and timing of extreme temperatures, drought, flooding and tropical storms, etc.

Warming since 1981 led to combined losses of 40 million tonne or US5$ billion [wheat, maize and barley have negative relation with temp]

Overall, it does not appear to be possible at the present time to provide a robust assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity.

Non-Climate, Greehouse emissions

related

A reduction in CO2 emissions would be expected to reduce the positive effect of CO2 fertilization on crop yields more rapidly than it would mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

In regions, such as Asia, little evidence currently exists regarding ozone.

India Specific Climate Change

Although variation is within 10% of rainfall, tobacco crop yields are affected in yield significantly, especially KLS region.

It is further noted that night time temperatures have increased sharply during the recent years, highlighting the role of greenhouse gases.

ISMR anomaly and food grain production relationship not encouraging!

Studies also suggests intensity and duration may vary significantly, even though average precipitation might stay the same, while average temperatures will very likely exceed the highest values in 130 year instrumental record.

India Specific Climate Change: Predictions

Mean warming over India is likely to be in the range 1.7-2.00 C by 2030s, 3.3-4.80 C by 2080s relative to pre industrial times.

All-India precipitation is projected to increase from 4% to 5% by 2030s and from 6% to 14% towards the end of the century (2080s) compared to the 1961-1990 baseline.

The precipitation projections are generally less reliable than temperature projections

There is consistent positive trend in frequency of extreme precipitation days (e.g., greater than 40 mm/ day) for decades 2060s and beyond

India Specific Implications All-India rainfall does not show any significant trends, however there are significant regional trends and sub-seasonal

rainfall

surface air temperatures including night time temperatures are expected to further increase.

Increase in moisture level is expected with increase in rainfall, but there will also be extreme rainfall related events

productivity of most cereals would decrease due to increase in temperature and CO2, and the decrease in water availability.

There will be a projected loss of 10-40% in crop production by 2100 if no adaptation measures are taken. A one degree Celsius increase in temperature may reduce yields of major food crops by 3-7%

Kharif (autumn) crops will be impacted more by rainfall variability while Rabi (spring) crops by rise in minimum temperature.

There will also be more opportunities for rainwater harvesting due to high intensity rainfall but greater loss of topsoil due to erosion.

Rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and the likelihood of nonlinear effects of temperature on yields are causes of concern. Despite rising CO2 net loss in productivity due to higher temperatures is expected (3 degree rise cancels benefits)

http://www.ifpri.org/node/8438

Factors impacted by climate change

Factors Affecting Productivity & Practices MAPPING OF FACTORS

CLIMATIC FACTORS: A STUDY

EVOLUTION OF AGRI-PRACTICES

Different factors affecting Productivity

Climatic

Precipitation Temperature Humidity Wind VelocitySolar Radiation Gases

High yield ability

Early maturity

Resistance to lodging

Drought flood and salinity tolerance

Tolerance to insect pests and diseases

Chemical composition of grains (oil content, protein content)

Quality of grains

Quality of straw

Internal Factors

Nearly 50% of yield is attributed to the influence of climatic factors. The following are the atmospheric weather variables which influences the crop production

Precipitation

Temperature

Atmospheric humidity

Solar radiation

Wind velocity

Atmospheric gases

Climatic Factors

Precipitation• Definition: Water which falls

from atmosphere• Important factor, crop

growth dependence on amount and period of rain fall is very high

• Distributed rain fall is more important than total rain fall

Temperature• Definition: Measure of

intensity of heat energy• Temperature range for

maximum agricultural growth

• Temperature plays a crucial role in Germination. Leaf production, expansion, flowering

Humidity • Definition: Water vapour

present in atmosphere in form of invisible water vapour

• Soil evaporation and plant transpiration

• RH influences water requirement of crops

• Balance of RH (40-60%)

Climatic Factors

Solar Radiation• Germination to Harvest even

post harvest crops are affected by solar radiation

• Photosynthesis process• Physical process in soil • Controls distribution of

temperature

Wind Velocity• Basic function is to carry

moisture and heat • Supply fresh CO2 for

photosynthesis • Soil erosion, increase

evaporation, spread pest and diseases, enormous wind speed gives mechanical damage

Atmospheric Gases• CO2 for photosynthesis• Co2 returned to atmosphere

during decomposition of organic matter

• O2 is important for respiration

• N is major plant nutrient • Certain gases are toxic

Climatic Factors

Conventional Farming Practices GAP and SAP Climate Smart

Agriculture

Evolution of Farming Practices

Mitigation StrategiesFARMING PRACTICES

AGRI INNOVATION SYSTEM

NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

ENABLING ENVIRONMENT, R&D FOCUS, COLLABORATION, POLICIES

SCOPE EXCLUDES FINANCING

New Climate Smart Practices Past:Land degradation: Overuse of land, poor land management, nutrient mining, soil erosion

Need: Increased efficiency of organic and inorganic fertilizer, water use and pest and disease control are needed to increase returns to agriculture while reducing negative environmental externalities when achieving needed productivity gains

Agri Innovation Systems

Natural Resource Management Enabling environment, Focus on R&D, Collaboration, Policies

Farming Practices

Farming Practices

Using slow-release N fertilizers with proper timing, placement, and rates to

minimize N2O emissions

Capturing nutrients and energy from manure, crop residue, cover crop

management (closing nutrient cycles)

Using more efficient power sources and renewable energy (more efficient

tractors, green power).

Valuing agricultural commodities for their water footprint or

environmental traits.

Improving the synchronization of planting and harvesting operations with shifts in the hydrologic cycle

Reduce water losses, increase irrigation efficiencies by building irrigation

infrastructure

Erosion prevention and protection from extreme weather conditions

Increasing soil C sequestration to improve soil functions

Increasing N-use efficiencies for cropping systems

Agri Innovation Systems

Integrating Climate Change, impact, and mitigation in

farmer education

Incorporate Climate Change related messages in Advisory

Services like Namma Sandesh

Incentivise adoption of specific practices

Leverage existing infra: farmer and trader associations, NGOS

Introduction of later- maturing crop varieties or species,

heat and drought resistant crop varieties

Switching cropping sequences, Sowing earlier, adjusting timing of field operations

Conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage

methods, and improving irrigation efficiency.

Improved training and general education of populations

dependent on agriculture.

Incorporating Efficient Post Harvest Management

Activities

Natural Resource ManagementWatersheds: Projects designed to explore low-cost water conservation solutions to improve crop yields in the face of drought in the community of Kothapally in Andhra Pradesh, India

De-silting operations & control of soil erosion, soil fertility management, Soil moisture conservation by mulching crop residues, etc.

Forestry initiatives to conserve and build biodiversity: leverage natural habitat formations in Crop Management: Bee farms, Insectivorous Birds

Leveraging village level institutions to build capabilities and manage funding for projects

Enabling environment, Focus on R&D, Collaboration, Policies

Cross Country Exchange of info:Global Research Alliance on

Greenhouse Gases

Building in-situ biodiversity seed banks to enable faster

development

Ex post is better than Ex ante! Pull based mechanisms to reward

successful innovations.

Climate Change levy on tobacco produce: revenues to be used In

R&D

Payment for Ecosystem Services: Incentivise Climate Change

Mitigation Practices-

Replicate successful models established in other nations

Provision of loans, and equipments at subsidies

Tailor made policies according to region; Address poorly defined

land holding rights

Promoting fast and efficient information communication, Use of

RS/GIS

Bibliography http://cdkn.org/2012/01/agriculture-and-climate-change-in-india/

http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1554/2973.full#ref-59

http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1554/2973/F1.expansion.html

http://www.nias.res.in/docs/Climate%20Change%20and%20Sustainable%20Food%20Security.pdf

http://www.ctri.org.in/CTRI%20Publications/CTRI%20Vision%202025.pdf

http://www.fao.org/climatechange/climatesmart/en/

http://www.ifad.org/rainfedag/climate/

http://www.caadp.net/pdf/Using%20SLM%20Practices%20to%20Adapt%20and%20Mitigate%20Climate%20Change.pdf

http://www.afjare.org/resources/issues/vol_2_no1/5%20Hassan%20%26%20Nhemachena%20-%20Determinants%20of%20African%20farmers%E2%80%99%20strategies.pdf

http://www.ars.usda.gov/sp2UserFiles/Place/36221500/cswq-0456-delgado.pdf

http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp01098.pdf

http://www.globalenvironments.org/blog/climate-change-resilient-agriculture/

http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/i2316e/i2316e00.pdf

http://www.isprs.org/proceedings/XXXVIII/8-W3/b2/B21-138.pdf

http://www.ictsd.org/downloads/2012/05/g20-2012-27-april-2.pdf

THANK YOU!