Regional Workshop on ClimateRegional Workshop on ClimatePrediction / Projection and Extreme Event Indices

In The Arab RegionIn The Arab Region

Presentation of the Meteorological Presentation of the Meteorological ggNational Office of AlgeriaNational Office of Algeria

Casa Blanca MoroccoCasa Blanca, Morocco 13 – 16 Mars 2012

Par Mr Boucherf Djamel d.boucherf@meteo.dz

PRESENTATION OF THE ALGERIAN MET OFFICE

2

To ensure its missions, the Algerian met-office employs a manpowerof 1198 agents among which 64% represents the technical body

Organization of National Meteorological Office 1

of 1198 agents among which, 64% represents the technical body.

The Algerian territrory is covered by a network of observationalstationsstations

81 for the surface and 05 for the altitudeobservation stations, 296 climatological stations, 200 Automaticly, g , y

40 SMA DCP (locust invasion), 10 SMA (Local area , Algiers)

3 radar centers (Setif, Seraidi, D.E.Beida)

2 special Research stations, dedicated to specific observationC i hConcerning the structures :

4 Functional directions and 4 Operational ones at the central level.6 Directions at the regional level, in charge of the observational

N t k (C t ti Al i O B h O l d T t)

33/16/2012

Network (Constantine, Algiers, Oran, Bechar, Ouargla and Tamanrasset).

National NetworkNational Network

Stations dedicated to specific observations

: S ta tio n M é té o ro log iq u e

Station of ASSEKREM (2710 m)Global atmosphere Watch

Station of KSAR CHELLALAArid and semi-arid Zones

: S ta tio n M é té o ro log iq u e : P o ste C lim a to lo g iq ue : P o ste P lu v io m é triq ue : S ta tio n A u to m a tiq ue (T yp e C im e l) : S ta tio n A u to m a tiq ue (T yp e M ir ia 5 A )

5 2 mGlobal atmosphere Watch 5 0 m : F o r c e d u v e n t

: D i r e c t i o n d u v e n t

4 0 m : T e m p é r a t u r e

: H u m i d i t é

3 0 m

: A r m o i r e d ’ a q u i s i t i o n

: L a m p e d e b a l i s a g e 2 0 m

1 0 m

4

F i g 1 : S h e m a d e p r é s e n t a t i o n d u m a t d eK s a r C h e l l a l a

LA METEOROLOGIE S4ORGANISE SUIVANT TROIS

Vitesse vent

Direction du vent

STATION AUTOMATIQUE Température

HumiditéDE KSAR CHELLALA

Humidité

4 m 2 m4 m

AWS at oued K rri hKorriche

Doppler radar at Algiers-airport

EVOLUTION OF the SYNOPTIC NETWORK 1936-2007

National Network 4National Network 4O U O O t e S O C O 936 00

Stations principales de 1936 à 20076 stations with continuous observations from 1936 till 2010

70

80

90

1991 64

2001 72 76

40

50

60

40-50 25

1962 351963 16

1971 28

1981 40

10

20

30

0

10

8

The main tasks of the National Climate Centre :

It is responsible for implementing, monitoring and operation ofthe climatologically databasedevelopment and dissemination of periodic publications andclimate assistance to users.

Conducts studies to identify and quantify the weather impact oneconomic activity.

Has the climate expertise to process and statistical analyze of data.

Able to offer operationalservices to ensure the monitoring of weather derivativesservices to ensure the monitoring of weather derivatives.

Channel acquisition and processing of climatologically dataSynoptic stationsMessages

Stations of Observations ( SP,PCP, PP, Auto) -Acquisition of data and documents

AGMET + CLIMAT

Regional Structures

and documents

-Document Control

-Capture and control data inCLICOMCLICOM

-Inspection stations

hi i

Central StructureCNC

- Document Archiving(Manuscript and Electronic)

-Re-check the data CLICOM

CNC -Updating the database

-Processing and publication of data (Atlas, Newsletters ... ....)

Users

Base of climatological data 1

Handwritten archived on two sites ORAN before 2003, ALGIERS since 2003

The oldest climatologically

document Algiers it 1856

ORAN

city 1856

11

Base of climatological data 2g

Volume of the bank data

2977 years of synoptic data (sorting-schedules) ( g )

10 000 years of daily data (precipitation extreme temperatures)(precipitation, extreme temperatures)

1000 years of (automatic) hourly

S i d t l d t

data

17 years of data VAG

12

Seized - control data y

Product Produced 1:

Newsletter of decadal climate and agro meteorologicalClimate Publications

Newsletter of decadal climate and agro meteorological information.

Monthly newsletter of climate information.yAnnual Summary of weather in Algeria.Newsletter of the seasonal forecast

Climate Products 2Routinely collected meteorological dataRoutinely collected meteorological data from from

t l i l t ti h tt l i l t ti h t

Observations :Medium,

meteorological stations has to:meteorological stations has to:

Normal,Return periods …From series homogenizedFrom series homogenizedGenerator series:Probabilities,C diCase studies.

Seasonal forecast : Anomalies of precipitation and temperatures of 1, 2 and 3 monthsAnomalies of precipitation and temperatures of 1, 2 and 3 months

Statistical adjustments:Correlation between observations and model outputsCorrelation between observations and model outputs

Prévision mensuelle des précipitations et des températures moyennes Jun-Jul-Août Source : NOAA/NWS/NCEP.

Dernière mise à jour : Mercredi 02 Juin 2010.Conditions initiales : du 23 au 31 Mai 2010.Ce bulletin est élaboré à L’Office National de la Météorologie à titre expérimental il sera amélioré et enrichi avec les avis desCe bulletin est élaboré à L Office National de la Météorologie à titre expérimental, il sera amélioré et enrichi avec les avis des

utilisateurs. Il est issu des sorties du Modèle CFS (NCEP).Modèle :NCEP/ Climate Forecast System (CFS)CFS a été développé au Centre de modélisation de l'environnement NCEP. C’est un modèle couplé représentant l'interaction entre les

Océans, la Terre et l'Atmosphère. Devenu opérationnel en août 2004.Probabilité mensuelle des précipitations

Fig.6 : Tendance des pluies annuelles (zone : plaines côtières)

Fig.9 : Tendance des pluies annuelles ( Test de Mann Kendall)

Légende

Tendance nulleTendance à la baisse

38MER MEDITERRANEE

Distribution of the difference in mean annual temperature in ° C above the 1961-1990 mean

36

1

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7ESPAGNEMER MEDITERRANEE

ChlefSetif TebessaConstantine

Oran

AlgerJijel Annaba

34

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

1

TUNISIEMAROC Tlemcen

Batna

DjelfaTiaret

Boussaâda

-5 0 5 1030

32

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

0

0 Km 277 Km 554 Km

Ain Sefra

. All stations have positive temperature differences except the station with Mostagalimit of our study area Ghardaïa, -0.12 C

The warmest years were 2003, 1999.1994, 1989, 2001 and 2006 Generally the lastThe warmest years were 2003, 1999.1994, 1989, 2001 and 2006 Generally the last two decades have warmer years except for 1991 and 1992 which were relatively cold (0.12 C, 0.5 C).

Since 1950 there was a significant increase in mean annual temperaturesSince 1950, there was a significant increase in mean annual temperatures compared to the normal level of northern Algeria in the order of 0.5 ° C to 0.6 ° C.

38

SKIKDABEJAIA

Tendency of the indices basing itself on the minimal temperatures

34

36

ANNABACONSTANTNE

BEJAIA

BISKRADJELFA

ORAN

TLEMCEN

(a)

32

EL OUED

H MESSAOUD

EL GOLEA

EL BAYADH

BECHAR

TN10p

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1030

0 Km 222 Km 444 Km

-06 à -0.4 -0.4 à 0 0.4 à 0.8

38(b)

36

38

ORAN

DJELFABISKRA

ANNABA

TEBESSA

CONSTANTIN

JIJEL

( )

TN90p

32

34

MECHRIA

EL BAYADH

DJELFA

EL OUED

H MESSAOUD

GHARDAIA

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1030 0 Km 222 Km 444 Km

0 a 0.3 0.3 a 0.6-0.6 a -0.3

Une grande partie de l’Algérie est extrêmement vulnérable aux variations et extrêmes climatiques,

Une sécheresse récurrente : 1943 à 1948, depuis la décennie 80

La vague de chaleur de l’été 2003,

La vague de froid du mois de janvier 2005,La vague de froid du mois de janvier 2005,

En novembre 2001, plus 800 personnes ont perdu leur vie à Bab El Oued du fait des pluies et inondations catastrophiquesOued du fait des pluies et inondations catastrophiques.

Photos presse

Most Vulnerable

Every region in Algeria is vulnerable

The Algerian territory is very vast with over 2,5 millions Km² and culminating at 30and presents very different meteorological and geographical variations from a regioto anotherThe coasts lies over than 1200 km, in the southern side of the Western Mediterranean area.

Algeria is affected by both the northern and the western disturbances, and also by the ones which are associated with the thermal cyclones when Saharian air is advected towards the coasts. Sometimes, the cyclone at the surface is not well formed (A. Jansa, 1990; B. Hamadache, 1992).

The Mediterranean in general and the Western basin in particular are identified as being the most cyclogenetic area in the world (Reither, 1975).

23

The cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean, has a great impact on the severe weather which, sometimes affects the surrounding countries.

What happened?What happened?

Between 18Z on 9th Nov and 12Z on 10th Nov 2001, over 260mm of rain fell over western and central Algiers260mm of rain fell over western and central Algiers.

- Run-off from mountain slopes converged in districts of Algiers.

- 776 dead,126 missing, 1454without shelter

- 389 vehicles destroyed

THE FACTORS AGGRAVATING THE FLOODINGS ARE

The intensity and the length of the precipitations,.

The importance of the surface and the slope of the basin pouring : surface of 10 Km²s

(maximal altitude of 395 m and minimal altitude of 01 m))

The lack of plant cover and capacity of absorption of soil, accelerating the phenomena, of erosion and ruissellement

An urbanization in fooding zoneAn urbanization in fooding zone

What happened?What happened?pppp

25 14

STATION DE BIRMANDREIS Rain started November 09, 2001 toward 9h 30 min. with downpours of average i t h i itt d th t ti

The floodings of BAB EL OUED

16

18

20PLUIE(mm)

HYETOGRAMME DE PLUIE DE L'EVENEMENT DU 9 ET 10 NOVEMBRE 2001

importance having permitted the saturation of soil.

Rain took violently with a maximal intensity that had totaled between midnight

10

12

14

intensity that had totaled between midnight and 4h of the morning of 73,5 mm.

To level of Bouzaréah, situated in height, the intensity was stronger and the quantity

2

4

6

8 the intensity was stronger and the quantity recorded from 18h to 06h the following day is of 127,8 mm. of the downpours of rains.

Rainfull data which precipitate in 24 0

2

9h30 11h00 12h30 14h00 15h30 18h00 19h30 21h00 23h00 0h30 2h00 3h30 5h00 7h30 9h30 11h00 12h30

09NOV/2001 10 NOV/2001

temps(heure)

Temps Temps de retourde retour

DuréeDuréeAlger D e bAlger D e b19361936--2001 2001

BouzareahBouzareah19111911--20012001

Bir MouradBir MouradRais Rais 19501950--20002000

p phours on average once all T years

2ans2ans 52mm52mm 61mm61mm 65mm65mm

5ans5ans 76mm76mm 83mm83mm 90.5mm90.5mm

10ans10ans 24 heures24 heures 91.7mm91.7mm 97.8mm97.8mm 107m107m

The statistical analysis of this series permits to situate some frequency the intervening rainy event November 09 and

26

25ans25ans 111.3mm111.3mm 116.5mm116.5mm 128.6mm128.6mm

50ans50ans 125.8mm125.8mm 130.3mm130.3mm 144.4mm144.4mm

100ans100ans 140.3mm140.3mm 144.1mm144.1mm 160.1mm160.1mm

intervening rainy event November 09 and 10, 2001 around one period return from 90 years

Latent heat release played the major role in this event

Conclusion 1

Latent heat release played the major role in this event

The orography influenced the spacial distribution of humidity more l d thover land than over sea

Rainfall underestimated by the global model

The floods due to the severity of the weather phenomena inparticular over the Algerian are at the origin ofparticular over the Algerian, are at the origin of human loss of life and material damage at various harbourinfrastructures;

The best way to deal with these phenomena is Essential, in order to be able to preserve the human

3/16/20123/16/2012

plifelives.

The results of the study showed that it’s difficult to well forecas

Conclusion 2

ythe intensity and the location of the phenomena. So, after this study the Algerian Met service decided to : *Integrate the ALADIN consortium as permanent memberIntegrate the ALADIN consortium as permanent membersince 2005.

** The second step is to buy a new computer in order to runALADIN/Algerie model with 10 km horizontal resolution.

* And AROME with 02 km horizontal resolution…

The main object is to increase the forecast accuracy toimprove the prediction of the forecast of « severe weather » in order to preserve human life

3/16/2012

in order to preserve human life.

Catastrophic floodings to Ghardaia 2008, 30 September and 01 October

The new NWP Center at Algiers

The station of VAG of Tamanrasset

TAMANRASSET AND ASSEKREM WAS SELECTED FOR THE REASONS:HIGH ALTITUDE : 1377 m and 2710 m

- ABSENCE OF ANTHROPIC ACTIVITIES

- ASSEKREM IS LOCATED IN THE FREE TROPOSHERE

PROGRAM OF MEASURESTAMANRASSETTAMANRASSETTURBIDITY , TOTAL OZONE , RADIATION , AOD

ASSEKREMSURFACE OZONE , AEROSOLS , SAMPLING GAS ( GHG ) , MONOXIDECARBONE

MEASURE OF TOTAL OZONE

- MEASURE SINCE APRIL 1994

- INSTRUMENT : SPECTROPHOTOMETER DOBSON N°11

- CALIBRATION : 2000 ( SOUTH AFRICA) , 2004 ( EGYPT)

- DATA SENT REGULARY TO WOUDC ( (TORONTO)

MEASURE OF RADIATION

- SOLAR RADIATION ( 0.28 µm – 4 µm )

Measure of Downward flux Since September 1994Measure of Downward flux Since September 1994

Di Gl b l Diff RG8 (> 0 69 )Direct , Global , Diffuse , RG8 (>=0.69 µm)

AT OS C AD AT O ( )- ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION ( Long Wave ) : 4 µm -100 µm

M f D d fl Si M 2000Measure of Downward flux Since Mars 2000

T T- Calibration of Instruments : PSP §NIP IN SITU WITH AHF REFERENCE

Variation of CO2, CH4,N2O , SF6 at Assekrem

360

375

CO

2 (p

pm)

30

1820

H4

(ppb

)

1760C

H

320

O (p

pb)

314

N2O

06.

0

ppt)

4.0

5.0

SF6

(p

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Date

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

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