presentation of swedbank's second quarter 2012 results

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Swedbank’s second quarter 2012 results Michael Wolf, CEO Göran Bronner, CFO Håkan Berg, CRO

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Presentation of Q2 2012 Results from the Analyst Conference by CEO Michael Wolf, CFO Göran Bronner and CRO Håkan Berg

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  • 1. Swedbanks second quarter 2012 resultsMichael Wolf, CEOGran Bronner, CFOHkan Berg, CRO
  • 2. Solid performance with unchanged business strategy Low growth environment Good execution on focus areas Competitive position continue to improve Mobile banking supports cash smart transformation 2
  • 3. RetailStable developmentSEKm Q2 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q/Q RepricingNet interest income 3 012 3 407 3 404 -3Net commissions 1 294 1 261 1 248 - 13 Deposit margins pressureTotal income 4 789 5 123 5 138 +15Total expenses 2 430 2 342 2 345 +3 Good asset qualityProfit before 2 359 2 781 2 793 +12impairmentsCredit impairments 6 24 100 +76ROE 30.8 26.5 24.6C/I ratio 0.51 0.46 0.46 3
  • 4. Baltic BankingStructural recovery continuedSEKm Q2 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q/Q Growth in lending book in euroNet interest income 1 017 912 870 -42Net commissions 365 371 378 +7 Lower Euribor affected NIITotal income 1 566 1 452 1 430 -22Total expenses 649 620 588 -32 Good underlying activityProfit before 917 832 842 +10impairmentsCredit impairments -142 -134 -204 -70ROE 13.5 14.5 14.8C/I 0.41 0.43 0.41 4
  • 5. Large Corporates & InstitutionsWeaker trading activitySEKm Q2 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q/Q Continued growth in LargeNet interest income 884 887 825 -62 - of which LC/FI* 444 652 666 +14 Corporate NIINet commissions 334 434 346 - 88Net gains and losses 20 648 316 -332 Lower capital market activityTotal income 1 247 1 980 1 499 - 481Expenses excl variable 685 607 602 -5staff costsVariable staff costs 50 106 118 +12Profit before 512 1267 779 - 488ImpairmentsCredit impairments -20 14 54 +40ROE 10.2 19.1 9.8C/I ratio 0.59 0.36 0.48* Large Corporates/Financial Institutions 5
  • 6. Cost developmentCost reduction according to plan Target to reduce costs by SEK 1bn 2012 Staff cost -173m and consultancy costs -172m year on yearCost trend (SEKm) H1 2011 H1 2012 YTDTotal expenses 9 000 8 664 -336Variable staff costs 275 397 + 122Compensation to Savings Banks 271 311 +40Underlying cost 8 454 7 956 -498 6
  • 7. Capital positionStrong capitalisation continued focus RWA developmentSEKbn505 Core Tier 1 ratio of 16.6 percent RWA down SEK 9bn in quarter500 - Volume increases +7.4 - Update SME portfolio -10.9 - Positive rating migration Sweden/Baltics 494.6495 - Increased risk European banking system - Market risk reduced - Sale of ukrainian portfolio490 -2.8 -2.9 485.4485 0.0480 2012 Q1 Volume Rating Other credit Market Operational 2012 Q2 (EAD) migration risk risk risk 7
  • 8. Liquidity and fundingContinued conservative stance Continued high issuance of long-term debt, SEK 41bn during Q2, total SEK 97bn during H1 SEK 17bn in maturities for the remainder of 2012 Funding plan of around SEK 120bn for full year Awaiting new regulatory landscape of capital and funding Long-term debt issued SEKm Outstanding short-term debtSEKm30 000 60 00025 000 50 00020 000 40 000 Q1 12 Q1 1215 000 Q2 12 30 000 Q2 1210 000 20 000 5 000 10 000 0 0 Domestic Euro CB USD CB Other CB Senior Domestic ECP/CD USCP Yankee CD French CD Finnish CD CB (144A) unsecured CP 8
  • 9. Group resultsSolid quarterSEKm Q1 12 Q2 12 Q/Q YTD Stable NIINet interest income 5 208 5 252 +44 10 460 - Repricing lendingNet commissions 2 405 2 346 -59 4 751 - Lower funding costNet gains and losses 759 455 -304 1 214 - Shrinking deposit marginsOther income 809 844 +35 1 653Total income 9 181 8 897 -284 18 078 Lower trading activityTotal expenses 4 413 4 251 -162 8 664Profit beforeimpairments 4 768 4 646 -122 9 414 Cost management on trackCredit impairments 172 300 +128 472 Credit impairments exit costImpairment of tangibleassets 40 125 +85 165 UkraineProfit for the period 3 425 3 162 -263 6 587 Capital position further strengthenedROE 14.0 13.0 13.5C/I 0.48 0.48 0.48CT1 ratio (Basel 2) 15.9 16.6 16.6 9
  • 10. Risk highlightsStable asset qualityCredit impairments Q1 Q2 Still high credit quality in Sweden(SEKm)Retail 24 100 Further improvements in BalticsLC&I 14 54 Provision releases for Latvian mortgagesBaltic Banking -134 -204 Estonia -78 -25 Exit costs Ukrainian retail portfolio Latvia -21 -197 Sale of performing portfolio Lithuania -35 18Group Functions & 268 350Other Russia -65 24 Ukraine 333 325Swedbank Group 172 300 10
  • 11. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP Scenario Deep recession without recovery Triggers Outcome Europe enters into deep Sharp GDP drop with no recession recovery (10-15% from 2011 level) Limited possibilities for fiscal stimulus Severe drop in house prices European bank runs (25-37% from 2011 level) Credit contraction Depreciated EUR and appreciated SEK Closed funding markets Devaluation in Latvia and Lithuania 11
  • 12. ICAAPHigh capitalisation even in extremely stressed scenario Revenue decrease 31 percent Credit impairments SEK 64bn over 5 year Scenario effects on Core Tier 1 ratio -165bp Well above 12% Core Tier 1 ratio at low point even in extremely stressed scenario in new regulatory environment 12
  • 13. Credit portfolio RetailCorporate Retail portfolio will drive capital efficiency Total portfolio SEK 227bn Segments excl. Swedbank Volume Secured Mortgage and Swedbank Finance (SEKbn) (%) Agriculture 6.3 81 Manufacturing 10.8 84 Swedbank Mortgage AB Public sector and utilities 4.8 90 90 Leasing (Swedbank Construction 4.6 86 113 Finance AB) Retail 9.2 88 Other 24 Transportation 2.0 82 Shipping 0.2 94 Hotels and restaurants 3.4 89 Information & communication 0.9 65 Finance and insurance 2.6 77 Property management 54.6 90 Professional service 6.6 75 Other 7.0 70 Total 113.0 86 13
  • 14. Q&A
  • 15. Appendix 15
  • 16. Mortgage loans, gross margin (3 months) % 6 5 Net margin 4 The gross margin should cover: 3 Cost of liquidity ~0.3% Administrative costs ~0.3% Credit impairments ~ 0.03% 2 Tax (26.3% on profit before tax) 1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Gross margin Swedbanks funding cost Stibor 3 months Swedish Riksbanks reporate 16
  • 17. Large Corporates & InstitutionsWeaker trading activity in Q2SEKm Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11* Q1 12 Q2 12Net interest income 884 756 845 887 825 of which LC & FI** 444 519 563 652 666 of which Markets 440 237 282 235 159Commission income 334 317 269 434 346 of which LC & FI* * 221 241 261 278 278 of which Markets 113 76 6 156 68Total income LC&I 1 247 1 184 1 328 1 980 1 499 of which LC & FI** 682 770 832 946 947 of which Markets 565 414 496 1 034 552Total expenses, excl 685 659 818 607 602variable payVariable staff costs 50 6 13 106 118Profit before 512 519 497 1 267 779impairments of which LC & FI** 481 567 574 735 740 of which Markets 31 -48 -77 532 39Total impairments -20 -68 21 14 58C/I ratio 0.59 0.56 0.63 0.36 0.48* Excluding Lehman one-off ,**Large corporates and Financial institutions 17
  • 18. Cost management Cost target 2012 Target to reduce underlying costs by SEK 1bn 2012SEKbn 20 18.4 18 17.1 - 0.4 16.1 16 - 0.4 - 0.5 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Total expenses 2011 Variable staf f costs Restructuring costs Compensation to Underlying costs Cost target 2012 (af ter restatements) Savings Banks 2011 18
  • 19. Liquidity and fundingCore balance sheet structure Assets LiabilitiesSEKbn SEKbn2 000 2 0001 800 Interbank loans 1 800 Amounts owed to credit and repos institutions1 600 1 600 Other assets* Other liabilities**1 400 1 400 Government guaranteed debt1 200 1 200 Senior Estonia CEE lending1 000 Other corporate 1 000 Covered lending, Sweden & bonds other Nordic coun. 800 800 Other private, Sweden 600 600 Swedish Deposits 400 mortgage loans 400 200 200 Suppl. cap Core T1 0 0 Q2 2012 Q2 2012 *Other assets: derivatives, C-bank holdings interest bearing **Other liabilities: derivatives, short-term funding and other financial liabilities securities and other financial assetsSource: Swedbank, 30 June 2012 19
  • 20. Liquidity and fundingConservative liquidity levels Short-term funding mainly a tool for cash management More than 12 months pre-fundedSEKbn350 350300 300 Additional pledgeable250 and/or liquid assets 250 Next 12-month term funding maturities200 200 1 Liquidity reserve, securities 150 CP / CDs and net150 1 Liquidity reserve, interbank funding, 100 central bank deposits, SEKm100 SEKm 50 50 0 0Source: Swedbank 30 June 2012 1 As defined by the Swedish Bankers Association 20
  • 21. Liquidity and fundingLong-term funding maturity profile FY 2012 maturities amount to nominal SEK 86bn of which SEK 17bn for the remainder of 2012 Long-term funding maturity profileSEKbn200 Government guaranteed debt Senior unsecured150 debt Covered bonds100 50 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-Source: Swedbank 30 June, 2012 1 Maturing debt from 2018 and beyond is calculated as maturing in 2018 21
  • 22. Liquidity and fundingRemaining government guaranteed debt Exited the programme on 30 April 2010 No issuance under the programme since summer 2009 Remaining outstanding debt of SEK 36bn maturing during 2013 and 2014 Maturity profile as per Q2 2012SEKbn40 JPY CHF20 USD SEK EUR 0 2013 2014Source: Swedbank 30 June, 2012 22
  • 23. Liquidity and funding Senior unsecured debt strategy Limited need given Swedbanks balance sheet structure Secure OC level Affected by the banks liquidity needs House price sensitivity of the cover pool 35% 30% 25% OC 20% 15%Over-collateralisation 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% House price drop Source: Swedbank, 30 June, 2012, Nominal amounts 23
  • 24. Liquidity and fundingLiquidity reserveAccording to the template defined by the Swedish Bankers Association SEKmCash and holdings in central banks 132 028Deposits in other banks available overnight 270Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks or multilateral development banks 22 265Securities issued or guaranteed by municipalities or Public sector entitiesCovered bonds 56 577 - Issued by other institutions 56 577 - Own issuedSecurities issued by non-financial corporatesSecurities issued by financial corporates (excl. covered bonds) 2 846OtherTotal1 214 382Additional liquid assets, Group2 67 4741 95% of the securities in the liquidity reserve per Q2 2012 are rated AAA2 88% of the additional liquid assets fulfill the Liquidity Reserve definition by the Swedish Bankers Association exceptfrom that they are held outside the Treasury department. 24
  • 25. Swedish housing and mortgage marketSwedish mortgage market No securitization (on balance sheet) No sub-prime market No 3rd party origination No buy-to-let market 70% home ownership1 Rental market is regulated First hand contracts difficult to obtain Rents need to be negotiated with the Swedish Union of Tenants Transparent credit information (credit information agency, www.uc.se) Publicly available information regarding income, debt, payment track record etc Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations including stress test of higher interest rate Very limited debt forgiveness possibilities (full recourse) Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system1 Source: Boverket, 2011 25
  • 26. Swedish housing and mortgage marketReal estate prices Sweden 12 months development Single-family homes1 Tenant-owner rights2 Combined3 12M 12M 12M Jul/11 0% 6% 2% Aug/11 -2% 3% -1% Sep/11 -3% 1% -2% Oct/11 -4% -1% -3% Nov/11 -5% -4% -5% Dec/11 -7% -4% -6% Jan/12 -4% -2% -4% Feb/12 -4% -1% -3% Mar/12 -4% 1% -3% Apr/12 -2% 2% -1% May/12 -2% 3% -1% Jun/12 -1% 4% 0%Source: Valuegard www.valuegard.se (Based on data from Mklarstatistik), 1 HOXHOUSESWE, 2 HOXFLATSWE, 3 HOXSWE 26
  • 27. Baltic real estate pricesReal estate prices Baltic countries Tallinn Riga 1800 1 800 1600 1 600 1400 1 400 1200 1 200 1000 1 000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Source: Swedbank, Estonian Land Board Nr.of deals EUR/m2 Source: Swedbank Nr.of deals EUR/m2 Vilnius 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Nr.of deals EUR/m2 27
  • 28. Asset quality Impaired loans decreasing Decreased SEK 1.7bn Continued progress in corporate loan restructuringSEK bn 45 2.4 40.3 40 35 Share of - 4.1 - 3.9 impaired 30 - 3.0 loans, gross - 1.1 -1.9 25 -3.9 20.4 20 -2.7 Ukraine 75% - 1.7 4.9 Russia 11% 15 0.6 41 Lithuania 12% 10 Latvia 17% 5.9 5 2.8 Estonia 5% 0.3 LC&I 0.12% 1.8 Retail 0.19% 0 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q2 12 28
  • 29. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 -100 20 EURm Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Asset quality Estonia Q1 12 Q2 12 Q2 11 Q3 11 Latvia Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q2 11 Q3 11 Lithuania Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q2 11 Q3 11 Ukraine Q4 11 Loans past due 60 days performance Q/Q Q1 12 Q2 12 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Russia Q1 12 Q2 1229
  • 30. Asset qualityProvisions well provided for SEKm 30 000 25 000 Provision ratios, % Q2 12 65.0% 63.7% Retail 79 20 000 60.0% 59.8% 61.5% 2 436 LC&I 155 2 409 15 000 15 952 Baltic Banking 56 14 782 2 435 2 478 12 821 2 040 Russia 60 10 000 11 915 10 951 Ukraine 74 Group 64 5 000 0 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Individual provisions Portf olio provisions Provision ratio 30
  • 31. Asset qualityCredit impairments by business area, SEKm 300 172 -174 -324 -441 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Retail LC&I Baltic Banking Other (Russia/Ukraine) 31
  • 32. Credit portfolio Large Corporates & InstitutionsShipping and offshore + private equity Lending exposure to shipping and offshore sector SEK Shipping and Offshore 25.5bn plus unutilised commitments of SEK 5.5bn Tanker 24% Portfolio duration 4-5y Average fleet age 7y Other represents ro/ro (8%), container (4%), dry bulk Offshore 58% Other (4%), cruise (1%) 18% Strong employment profiles Private equity portfolio Industrial Private equity related exposure was SEK 18.6bn 31% Healthcare 36% Nordic related LBOs >99% senior lending Largest sectors are healthcare (32%), industrial (27%) and service (19%) Other 33% 32
  • 33. Credit portfolio Large Corporates & InstitutionsShipping and offshore portfolio exposure mainly in USD (79%),minor exposures in riskier segments Shipping and offshore portfolio by currency (in USDm) Shipping and offshore portfolio by subsegment SEK JPY Cruise 0% 1% 1% Container 5% RORO NOK 8% 13% Dry bulk 4% Drilling & exploration 22% EUR 7% Gas (LNG/LPG) 4% Crude oil 4% Oil service 9% Product 14% Supply USD 13% 79% Floating production Chemical 10% 2% Accommodation 4% 33
  • 34. Credit portfolio Agriculture retail Segmentation Definitions Corporate Agriculture: Businesses that derive their main income from agricultural activities Private: Private Investments: Private individuals who own Residential tagricultural properties for living or investment 20% purposes Agriculture Lending exposure to the agriculture Industry 46% Approx SEK 62bn per Q2 2012 Corporate agriculture: (58%) Private: Agriculture 46% Forestry 22% Forestry 12% Private investments (42%) Residents: 20% Foresty Forestry: 22% 12% 34
  • 35. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP dcenario Deep recession without recovery105 GDP - Index 105 Real Estate prices - index100 95 95 85 90 75 85 65 80 55 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania3.0% Interest rates 3m 14 FX scenario2.5% 12 102.0% 81.5% 61.0% 4 20.5% 00.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Euribor Stibor USD/SEK EUR/SEK GBP/SEK 35
  • 36. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP Main scenario results SEK bn Net Interest Income NII decreases by 39% throughout the 30 20.7 scenario 20 10 12.6 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Credit Impairments total SEK 64bn Credit impairments over the scenario period SEK bn 30 23.4 20 10 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -10 RWA decreases due to significant SEKbn RWA incl. reg effects credit impairments and deleveraging 700 600 500 414 400 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 36
  • 37. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP Income statement TotalIncome statement (SEKbn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 - 2016Total net interest income 20.7 19.5 16.7 14.2 13.0 12.6 75.9Total income 34.7 31.8 34.0 25.4 24.3 24.1 139.6Total expenses 20.9 17.6 18.7 18.0 18.0 17.8 90.1Profit before credit losses 13.8 14.2 15.3 7.4 6.3 6.2 49.5Credit losses -1.8 8.2 23.4 17.4 9.3 5.4 63.6Operating profit 15.5 6.1 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.9 -14.1 Appropriations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tax 3.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8Profit for the year 11.8 4.5 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.6 -16.0 Minority interest 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1Profit for the year attr to shareholders 11.5 4.4 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.6 -16.1 Dividend 5.8 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5Profit after tax, min. int. & dividend 5.7 2.2 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.3 -18.6 37
  • 38. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP Credit impairments EAD 2011 Acc. loss ratio Credit impairments (%) (SEKbn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 - 2016 Total 1,384.4 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.5 4.6 of which LC & I 309.8 0.5 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.6 5.4 Retail 950.8 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 3.2 Estonia 52.5 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.7 6.6 Latvia 30.6 2.7 6.1 5.6 4.4 4.6 15.0 Lithuania 31.1 2.4 4.1 3.0 2.4 2.2 9.5 Russia & Ukraine 9.6 5.2 20.9 10.5 3.7 1.6 41.9The accumulated losses constitute SEK 63.6bn.Credit impairments in LC&I and Retail constitute 74% of total accumulated credit impairments Credit impairments LC & I and Retail EAD 2011 Acc. loss ratio (SEKbn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (%) 2012 - 2016 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 25.8 0.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 3.7 Manufacturing 39.3 1.0 2.6 2.5 1.2 0.5 6.7 Public sector and utilities 11.6 0.6 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.4 5.3 Construction 15.1 1.2 3.4 3.4 1.9 0.4 8.5 Retail 22.8 1.3 4.6 5.4 4.0 2.4 14.0 Transportation 8.6 2.1 8.2 5.7 3.4 1.2 16.1 Shipping 31.2 0.4 8.5 6.2 0.6 0.5 14.4 Hotels and restaurants 3.8 2.7 6.3 6.3 3.7 0.7 15.0 Information and communication 5.0 0.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.5 4.9 Finance and insurance 20.4 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 2.8 Property management 125.1 0.9 3.9 3.8 2.0 1.0 9.6 Cooperative housing associations 75.4 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.8 Other corporate lending 75.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 3.9 Professional services 14.9 1.0 2.7 3.2 2.1 0.7 8.0 Bank 128.2 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 3.9 Private 657.8 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.2 Total 1,260.5 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 3.7 38
  • 39. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP Main adverse scenario results Capital assessment RWA & Capital (SEKbn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 RWA 492.3 489.5 504.1 433.9 395.2 365.0 RWA inc 15% mortgage riskweight * 565.3 552.2 557.1 482.4 442.6 414.4 RWA inc regulatory effects ** 588.1 575.0 557.1 482.4 442.6 414.4 Core Tier 1 77.3 79.7 62.1 52.4 49.5 49.8 Core Tier 1 inc regulatory effects ** 73.6 76.0 62.1 52.4 49.5 49.8 Total Capital base 93.2 88.3 70.9 61.5 57.2 55.2 Capital assessment (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Core Tier 1 ratio 15.7 16.3 12.3 12.1 12.5 13.6 Core Tier 1 ratio inc 15% mortgage riskweight * 13.7 14.4 11.1 10.9 11.2 12.0 Core Tier 1 ratio inc. regulatory effects ** 12.5 13.2 11.1 10.9 11.2 12.0 Total capital ratio inc. 15% mortgage riskweight * 16.5 16.0 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.3 * The effect of a 15% average riskweight on the Swedish Mortgage portfolio ** Includes assessed effects of Basel 3, IAS 19 and changed mortgage risk-weights 39