Looking Towards ASEAN Community 2015:

Constraints, Obstacles and Opportunities

By

Professor Dr.Surakiart SathirathaiFormer Deputy Prime Minister and

Minister of Foreign Affairs of ThailandDistinguished Scholar, Chulalongkorn University

Organized byInstitute of Asian Studies, Chulalongkorn University

In cooperation withSiam Intelligence Unit (SIU)

April 21st, 2011Room 105, Maha Chulalongkorn Building,

Chulalongkorn University

I. Positive Developments1) The first time to have “Community” as the

target thus, being more visible in the world

radar screen.

2) The first time to have a roadmap of ASEAN

Community, i.e. to have 3 pillars ASC

AEC all with action plans

ASCC

3) There has been relatively concrete negotiation

on action plans and blueprint, many programs

are tangible, doable.

4) There have been FTAs between ASEAN and

other countries despite the fact that there is no

Trade Minister of ASEAN (ASEAN-China, ASEAN-

Japan etc.)

5) ASEAN activities have been more visible: in

economic field, tourism cooperation,

cultural, educational, youth activities, more

people to people contact under ASEAN

roof, and more media coverage about

ASEAN community target.

6) There have been attempts to create the

sense of community eg. ASEAN VISA,

ASEAN flags to fly with national flags at all

government buildings, and embassies.

7) More ASEAN stands on selected world

issues eg. Myanmar.

- Therefore open intra and extra ASEAN

opportunities in many fields as a large

market of almost 600 million people.

II. Constraints for Becoming

“ASEAN Community”1) There is a lack of the sense of ownership,

sense of participation and therefore, lack of

the sense of community in the heart and

mind of the people of ASEAN.

a) There is a lack of interactions among civil

societies.

For ASEAN

For Extra – ASEAN, Eg. Joint

research with

Dialogue partners, or

research on dialogue

partners’ strategies

towards ASEAN

b) There is a lack of people participation in the

ASEAN.

decision making process and in policy

and strategy formulation. Most of these

issues rest in the hand of bureaucrats,

politicians from the executive branch of

each country.

c) There are no common external policies.

- No common foreign policy – eg. 9/11, Iraq

- No common security policy – start a bit on

Malacca straits

- No common defense policy

- No common external ec. relations policy eg. no

Common External Tariff

- No common governance policy

- No harmonization of legal system eg. VAT.

Immigration law, Transportation Law etc.

d) Lack of “ASEAN Affairs Come First” principle

eg. Compare to EU

e) Lack of regular informal meetings among leaders,

ministers and policy makers from all branches of each

country (Speakers, MPs, Judges)

But, may be appropriate that ASEAN does not

have these common policies because, if so A

SEAN might have not been intact until today.

We, therefore, have a sense of community in

“ASEAN Way”.

2) ASEAN is too sensitive to outside pressure

Eg. Myanmar, responded to periodic outside

pressures rather than having ASEAN’s initiative on

roadmap for democracy and national reconciliation

in Myanmar.

3) Domestic Political Problems of Each Member

Thailand - could not organize ASEAN and EAS

summits in 2009

- could not detach bilateral issue

between Thailand and Cambodia from

ASEAN affairs. Eg. Sharp exchanges

through the press between two

leaders at the opening of ASEAN

summit in Hua-Hin

4) Lack of Confidence on the Progress for

Conflict Avoidance:

Confidence Building Preventive Diplomacy

Conflict Resolution

Aceh – positive

Myanmar - domestic affairs VS.

Roadmap for

Democracy, and Bangkok Process in

2003

Troika?

Role of ASEAN Chair?

Role of Friends of The Chair?

Shuttle Diplomacy?

Thailand VS Cambodia – Despite

Thailand’s repeated references to the

conflict as bilateral, the role of third party

is clearly seen.

— Shuttle diplomacy by Indonesian FM as

ASEAN Chair.

— Presence of ASEAN Chair at UNSC

— UNSC tasks ASEAN to implement ceasefire

— Almost unprecedented Special (emergency)

ASEAN FM meeting on Thailand – Cambodia

conflicts and agreement by both parties for

Indonesian observer team to implement

ceasefire.

— Meeting of bilateral GBC (later cancelled) and

JBC between Thailand and Cambodia In

Indonesia with good office and presence of

Indonesian FM as ASEAN Chairs.

— This is a test for conflict avoidance and

dispute resolution in ASEAN.

— If ASEAN attempt fails, this issue can be a

setback for ASEAN and can affect confidence

in ASEAN to resolve internal conflicts, thus

affecting confidence for ASEAN

community in 2015

5) Lack of or Little Intra – Regional Grouping Relations

ASEAN-SAARC ASEAN-EU

ASEAN-GCC ASEAN-PIF

ASEAN-NEPAD ASEAN-CARICOM

ASEAN and Sub-regional groupings in Africa,

Latin America.

Thus, no compelling force for ASEAN to get together and

formulate ASEAN strategy, position ad policies towards

other regional groupings.

6) Lack of Common Positions in Multi-Lateral Fora

- UN (UNSC, UNGA, Human Rights

Council, UNCTAD, etc)

- WTO

- APEC

- ASEM

- UNFCCC (Climate change)

The common positions (on even certain topics)

will raise consciousness of being a community.

7) Individual Country still has a High Sense of

“National Issue”

— Ec. – Reluctant to liberalize even

among ASEAN.

— Security – Domestic Affairs.

— Social/political issues eg. Labour,

Human Rights, Democracy,

etc. – Domestic affairs.

8) lack of Roadmap for ASEAN’s Asia Architecture

— Risk being influenced or led by

major powers.

— Risk losing ASEAN centrality, not to

be in the driver seat eg. ASEAN+3

ASEAN+8 (EAS), GMS, EAFTA, ACD.

— Unclear of how EAS, ACD could lead

to Asia community.

9) Need Further Focus on ASEAN Connectivity.

— Lack of relationship between land and sea

link to make all ASEAN participate in

ASEAN connectivity.

— Western Corridor, too slow and unclear to

make EWEC attractive to outsiders.

— Need much in depth understanding of

China’s strategy for Yunnan and Pan Beibu

Gulf Economic Cooperation which

focuses on Guangxi Zhuang to connect

with ASEAN.

Conclusion1) ASEAN + non ASEAN people must understand

that ASEAN community actually is “ASEAN

way Community”.

2) Certain problem may not be a problems but

rather ASEAN normal practice:

- Non-legalistic, non-adversarial society

- Step by step

But if look at (+expect) ASEAN to be like EU, or AU or

other regional group problem because it’s not

ASEAN

3) Problems, obstacles, constraints may be

strength of ASEAN

- Step - by – step, gradual process.

- Focus on confidence building, building

comfort level.

- Non – legalistic, non – adversarial

society.

- Acknowledging differences and building

strength out of diversity.

4) Perhaps need once more an “Eminent Person

Group” to bring in proposals and ideas from all

sectors to analyse and to understand the real

characteristic of ASEAN Community.

Looking Towards ASEAN Community 2015:

Constraints, Obstacles and Opportunities

By

Professor Dr.Surakiart SathirathaiFormer Deputy Prime Minister and

Minister of Foreign Affairs of ThailandDistinguished Scholar, Chulalongkorn University

Organized byInstitute of Asian Studies, Chulalongkorn University

In cooperation withSiam Intelligence Unit (SIU)

April 21st, 2011Room 105, Maha Chulalongkorn Building,

Chulalongkorn University