presentation by olcay Ünver program coordinator william cosgrove project manager world water...

Presentation byOlcay Ünver

Program CoordinatorWilliam CosgroveProject Manager

World Water Scenarios Project

World Future 2010Boston MA 10 July 2010

World Water Scenarios

04/19/23 The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

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What is the current state of water resources in the world: challenges and opportunities?

What are the pressing water related issues people face today?

What are the major projects directed by UN – World Water Assessment Program (WWAP) to deal with these issues?

Second Generation of World Water Scenarios


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Water Scarcity


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Water Scarcity


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Water Scarcity


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Cereal deficits or surpluses


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Water to sustain fragile ecosystems

Water stress levels of major river basins (Map 6.3)

Pressures on the resource: Fundamental needs and rising living standards

Pressures on the resource: Fundamental needs and rising living standards

Average national water footprint per capita, 1997-2001 (Map 7.3)

World Water Vision

In 2025 we will be living in a world with a population of 7.5 billion people where everyone will have access to safe water supplies. Agriculture would produce enough food so that no one need go hungry. Reduced global consumption by industry will accompany substantially higher economic activity in the emerging and developing countries. Similar concern for freshwater and the environment will have reduced the volume of waste from human activity and led to the treatment of most solid and liquid wastes before their controlled release into the environment.


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Achieving the Vision

The Vision would be achieved through: Recognition of the crisis and the need for action Stakeholder representation in integrated water

resource management Full-cost pricing of water services for all human

uses More public funding for research and innovation Increased cooperation in international water

basins


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Global “Crises”

Water and the Global Energy Crisis

Historical and projected energy demand and oil prices show steadily rising demand and rapidly rising prices (Figure 1.8)

Water and the Global Food Crisis

Wheat and rice prices have risen sharply in recent years (Figure 1.9)

Water and Climate Change

GDP growth tracks rainfall variability in Ethiopia (1983-2000) and Tanzania (1989-99) (Figure 5.2)

Climate change: processes, characteristicsand threats (Figure 5.1)

Mitigation deals with carbon, adaptation with water

Climate impacts are greatest in poor countries

The costs of disasters as a share of GDP are much higher in poor countries than rich countries (Figure 1.2)

Lack of information and dataat a time when we need it more than ever to deal with increasing complexity

Distribution of Global Runoff Data Centre streamflow gauges (Figure 13.1)

The donor community can incorporatewater into the broader frameworks ofdevelopment aid and focus assistance onareas where it is needed most.

Investing in water

Water investment requires a holistic approach – links between pricing, financing and stakeholders (Figure 1.4)

Water for Sustainable Development

Sustainable development as the framework for water management

US government investments in water infrastructure during 1930-96 yielded $6 in damages averted for each $1 invested (Figure 1.3)

Water and the MDGs


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Opening the “water box”

Decision-making affecting water (Figure 1.1)

What progress since 2000?

Some Progress: Importance of IWRM recognised at Johannesburg

Summit 2002 Significant number of countries with WRM plans,

strategies and legislation Globally on track to meet drinking water objectives

of MDGs (with increased investment in sub-sector following Camdessus report)

Increased awareness and knowledge of groundwater stocks and quality among water managers

Industry increasingly aware of dependence on water, implementing water conservation and pollution reduction plans


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Some progress (cont.)

Approaches gathering data using satellite technology and modelling can facilitate monitoring trends

Community action often produces better results than government

Public contribution to decision-making using new information technology

Some less wealthy countries making better than average progress by establishing financially and politically autonomous, effective and efficient institutions


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But as WWDR3 shows, not enough: Not on track to meet household sanitation targets Where there is household sanitation, frequently

wastes discharged to environment without treatment

Global data mask lack of progress in many of poorest countries

MDGs do not reflect important role of water in meeting all of them, including poverty reduction through economic development

WRM strategies and legislation often not translated to action through institutional, financial and cultural change


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But as WWDR3 shows, not enough (cont.)

Investment in water infrastructure continues to be inadequate and single-purpose in most cases

Abuse and uninformed use of groundwater continues Leading actors from business and government often

not involved in public consultation When we need to know more about water resources

and their uses we are collecting less data Those knowledgeable about the impact on water of

decisions in other sectors often not at the table when decisions are taken


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A rapidly changing world poses threats, offers opportunities

Climate change is now a fact – and will continue

Water-related technology:o Continual refinement of GIS with ability for real-time monitoring of

agricultural crops and water quality and quantityo Information technology permitting a global collective intelligence

system, hopefully public, to facilitate knowledge management and decision-making

o Nanotechnology to replace current water sensors, water purification and desalination

o Biotechnology to grow food plants, biofuels and trees using saline or brackish water and to increase the yield, disease and drought resistance of crops

o Seawater-based food and biomass, including algal productiono Plant-based meat substitutes and (in vitro) cultured meat


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Socio-economic and cultural changes

Human population now majority urban Tight weave of village society being replaced by the

anonymity of the city Anonymity thrives in the workplace too (how many

products are assembled from pieces produced in different countries by colleagues who might never meet?)

Virtual connectedness is ordinary


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Socio-economic and cultural changes (cont.)

It is accepted that pre-eminence of the West could end, while vigour and energy are transforming the Third World

Governments worldwide outsource public duties, while private firms turned to public coffers to socialize their risks

There is growing awareness that present human consumption levels amount to a massive redistribution of wealth from future generations to ours.


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Globalisation

“For much of the world, globalisation as it has been managed seems like a pact with the devil. A few people in the country become wealthier; GDP statistics, for what they are worth look better, but ways of life and basic values are threatened. For some parts of the world the gains are even more tenuous, the costs more palpable. Closer integration into the global economy has brought greater volatility and insecurity, and more inequality. It has even threatened fundamental values.”

Joseph Stiglitz in Making Globalisation Work


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Managing water under risk and uncertainty


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Climate change and other factors external to water management (such as demography, technology, politics, societal values, governance and law) are demonstrating accelerating trends or disruptions. Combined with an inadequate database on water quantity, quality and use, these create new risks and uncertainties for water managers and for those who determine the direction of water actions.

Managing water under risk and uncertainty

Responsive and responsible decision-making increasingly complex and difficult

Not just know where we are and past trends, but anticipate uncertainties and opportunities of the future

Know the options we have Develop new styles of management able to

live with and benefit from uncertainty Avoid decisions whose impact we will later

regret


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Responses of UN- WWAP 4th edition of World Water Development

report Indicators, Monitoring and Data Bases World Water Scenarios


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Why NEW scenarios?

Existing global water scenarios need to incorporate additional driving forces (among them climate change, globalization and security issues) and use updated information. Others are too partial, incomplete or sectoral.

Evolution of drivers and logic behind storylines should be re-examined and possibly redone in light of developments within and outside the water sector since the 1990s


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Why NEW Scenarios? (cont.)

Important new policy initiatives since the last world water scenarios (for example, adoption of the MDGs

Linkages are possible with other scenario processes at the global level, e.g. new global environment scenarios (GEO5) and new IPCC scenarios on climate change.

In most cases there are no existing water scenarios at the national and sub-national levels.


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Four Phases:

1. Review and analysis of principal drivers including identification of linkages, considering applicability of drivers depending on major distinguishing characteristics of groups of countries.

2. Review of drivers by Scenario Development Group (SDG) and representatives of countries to outline set of about four scenarios (possible futures) to be developed through qualitative and quantitative analysis (modelling) and used as background material for the preparation of scenarios by local actors.


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Four Phases:

3. Development of scenarios for selected transboundary and country basins and for some countries and states; review by SDG of the global scenarios to take account of learning at local level.

4. Dissemination/outreach/training to strengthen the capacity of water managers and professionals as well as people in other sectors at the local, national, transboundary and regional levels. Will also inform political decision-making and address risks and uncertainties linked to global changes.


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Phase 1 nearing completion:Drivers:• Climate change and

variability• Water resources,

including groundwater and ecosystems

• Governance and Institutions (including the right to water)

• Technology

• Economy and Security• Agriculture• Infrastructure• Demography• Ethics, society and

culture (includes questions of equity)

• Politics


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Phase 1 nearing completion: (cont.)

Six driver reports being discussed in Real Time Delphi exercises

Four reports to be reviewed by groups of experts for completeness and priority setting

Phase 1 summary report to be presented at World Water Week Stockholm September 2010


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Tentative Overall Schedule:

Phase 1: Sept. 2010 (input to WWDR4)

Phase 2: Dec. 2011 (input to World Water Forum)

Phase 3: Mar. 2013Phase 4: Mar. 2014


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3rd Edition UN World Water Development Report

http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap

World Water Vision

http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/fileadmin/wwc/Library/WWVision/TableOfContents.pdf


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Thank you!

presentation by olcay Ünver program coordinator william cosgrove project manager world water...

Documents

world water vision

water scarcity

international water

safe water supplies

cost pricing of water

rising prices figure

cereal deficits

rising demand