presentation by charles f. robinson clearwater, florida a strategic conversation about the future...
TRANSCRIPT
Presentation byCharles F. Robinson
Clearwater, Florida
www.CharlesRobinsonFuturist.com
A Strategic Conversation
About the Future of the New
Hampshire Bar
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Chief Justice Broderick
“I believe that when we look back at the legal landscape 15 years from now, we will barely recognize today.
It would be silly to think that with technology moving at the speed of light, that the practice of law and the court system will remain largely as they are.
We need to do all that we can to design the future.”
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Tom Peters Predicts
Ninety per cent white-collar jobs will disappear in the next ten years.
What color collars do lawyers wear?
Is there an exception for lawyers?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Stare Decisis- Walking Through Life
Backwards
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Change Implications
Speeches, articles, and even retreats to teach how to deal with change won’t change behavior without Follow-up positive reinforcement Multidisciplinary support Framing change in a way to bridge the
present with the future
If your passion for change is subsumed in the tyranny of the urgent Monday morning you will hate change even more
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Leading the Profession to a Preferred Future
If we don’t drive the vehicle to our future we will end up wherever we are taken
Institutionalize search for foresight
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Scenario Thinking
Focus on the capability of the organization toPerceive what is going on in the practice
environmentThink through what this means for the bench
and barAct upon the new knowledge
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Objectives
Get beyond traditional thinking that Acts like a filter, restricting the ability to
perceive new informationImprisons us with personal biases and
routines within a world of recipes and business-as-usual assumptions
Frames our response automatically
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
A Strategic Conversation
A chance to rehearse the future but not predict the future.
Change is too complex to allow prediction.Looking for the “dots on the horizon”-signs
of change and how we should adapt.Must move toward adaptive organizational
learning Perception Thinking Action
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Wired Magazine (January, 1998)
Guardians of the old order are trying their best to hold back change and preserve their power.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Bill Gates Warning
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Tom Peters
“If you don’t like change, you are going to like irrelevance even less”
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“
Thomas Watson Chairman of IBM,1943
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”
Western Union internal memo, 1876.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
“I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.”
Gary Cooper on his decision not to
take the leading role in “Gone With the Wind”
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
“Everything that can be invented has been invented.”
Charles H. Duell,Commissioner,
US Office of Patents, 1899
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Toxic Assumptions of the Legal Profession
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Lawyers have a monopoly on the interpretation of the law.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
The practice of law is a profession and not a business.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
The practice of law is a business and not a profession.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
“What Are the Forces Already at Work in Our Profession That Have
the Potential to Profoundly Transform Our Profession’s Structure?”
Each Force a “Discontinuity”Examine Implications for Each
Discontinuous Force
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Current Forces Impacting the Profession
Nonlawyer competition
Diminished perceived value in attorney services
Technology displacement
Lawyer supply exceeds demand
Disintermediation- Out with the middle person
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
The Lawyer’s World is Flat
Program to run in 3 Texas Law Schools this year
Focus on how practice is changing and what law students and young lawyers can do to thrive in the 21st century
Business as usual not an option
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
The World is FlatA Brief History Of The
21st Century
Thomas L. Friedman
The 10 Forces That Flattened the World
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Flattener 1- 11/9/1989 Fall of Berlin Wall
Ultimately liberated all Soviet Union captive people
Tipped balance of power to those advocating democratic, consensual, free-market-oriented governance
Capitalism the only surviving choice
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Flattener 2 - 8/9/95Netscape goes Public
From PC-based computing platform to Internet-based platform
Killer applications E-mail Internet browsing
Netscape first mainstream browser culture for general public
Internet stopped being province of early adopters and geeks
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Flattener 3 - Work Flow Software
Work flow moved from manual work flow toSeamless interoperable work flowSeamless interoperable work flow with
other companiesWith standard language (XML)
makes e-filing possibleGlobal platform for multiple
forms of collaboration
Let’s Do Lunch: Have Your ApplicationLet’s Do Lunch: Have Your ApplicationTalk to MyTalk to My ApplicationApplication
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Flattener 4- Open-SourcingSelf-Organizing Collaborative Communities
Bottom up, shared, constantly improved by users, available free to anyone
Motive is the “psychic buzz” that comes from creating a collective product that can beat something produced by giants like Microsoft and IBM
Example - Apache an open source software system, powers 2/3 of the world’s web sites
Wikipedia the open source encyclopediaLinux- Top candidate to replace Windows OS
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Flattener 5 - OutsourcingY2K
IndiaNo natural resourcesMines brains of its own by educating a relatively
large slice of its elites in Sciences Engineering Medicine
Creates giant knowledge meritocracyA talent factory for engineering, computer
science, and software for the globe- Law?Software engineers took lead in fixing Y2K bug
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Flattener 6- OffshoringRunning with Gazelles, Eating with Lions
Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up.
It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed.
Every morning a lion wakes up.
It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death.
It doesn’t matter if you are a It doesn’t matter if you are a lion or a gazelle.lion or a gazelle.
When the sun comes up, When the sun comes up, you better start running.you better start running.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Outsourcing v. Offshoring
Outsourcing- Take specific, but limited function that you were doing in-house, eg Research Document drafting
Have outsource company take those functions for you and you reintegrate their work back into your operation
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Offshoring
Takes a part of the firm in Canton, Ohio and moves it to Canton, China.
The firm produces the work in the same way with lower taxes, cheaper labor, subsidized energy, and lower health-care costs
Really started 12-11-2001 when China formally joined the WTO.
Made China’s own competitive playing field as level as the rest of the world
China agreed to follow international law and standard business practices
Not certain who is lion, who is gazelleNot certain who is lion, who is gazelle
26
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Chinese looking to future as designers
May be 10 years outIn 30 years will have gone from
Sold in China Made in China Designed in China Dreamed up in China
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
“If Americans and Europeans want to benefit from the flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”
Thomas Friedman
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Flattener 7 - Supply-Chaining
When a customer lifts a product off the shelf the cashier scans it in. At that moment:
A signal is generated from the Wal-Mart network to the supplier
The signal shows up on the supplier’s screen To make another of that item and ship it via
the Wal-Mart supply chain, and the whole cycle will start anew
Wal-Mart database is entire Internet X 2
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Flattener 8- Insourcing
UPS slogan-
Your World Synchronized
What the guys in the Funny Brown Shorts Are Really Doing
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Not just package delivery; synchronizing global supply chains
Toshiba laptops under warranty Instructions to ship UPS to Toshiba Actually goes to UPS Louisville
hub for repair by UPS instead of UPS to Toshiba to UPS to customer
Flattener 8- Insourcing
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
UPS dispatches Papa John pizza deliveryNike Shoes
UPS has spent $1billion since 1996 to serve any supply chain in the world
Flattener 8- Insourcing
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Flattener 9- In-FormingGoogle, Yahoo!, MSN Web Search
Informing is the ability to build and deploy your own personal supply chain- a supply chain of information, knowledge, and entertainment.
Allows self-collaboration- becoming your own self-directed and self-empowered researcher, editor without a trip to the library.
Searching for knowledge.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Flattener 9- In-FormingGoogle, Yahoo!, MSN Web Search
Seeking like-minded people and communities
Google doing over one billion searches per day
iPod, Ceiva, TiVo, Amazon
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Flattener 10- The SteroidsDigital, Mobile, Personal, and Virtual
Taking all forms of collaboration- outsourcing, offshoring, open-sourcing, supply-chaining, insourcing, and in-forming, and doing so in a way that is Digital Mobile Virtual Personal
Enhancing each one and making the world flatter by the day
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
What Do We Tell Our Kids/Grandkids?
Only one message-
You must constantly upgrade your skills
“Children, when I was growing up, my parents used to say to me,
‘Tom finish your dinner- people in China and Tom finish your dinner- people in China and India are starving.India are starving.’
My advice to you is:
Kids, finish your homework- people in China Kids, finish your homework- people in China and India are starving for your jobsand India are starving for your jobs..”
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Become an “Untouchable”
People whose jobs cannot be outsourcedFour broad categories
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Special
Michael JordanBill Gates
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Specialized
Work cannot be outsourced because niche not fungibleFungible means easily digitized or substitutedLawyers in niche practicesManagement consultantsBrain SurgeonsCutting edge computer architectsCutting edge software engineersSkills that are in high demand and not fungible
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Chief Justice Broderick
“It is a consumer world and lawyers are often seen as fungible commodities.”
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Anchored
For those who cannot be special or specialized
Job must be done in a specific location involving face-to face contact Barber Chef/waitperson Home town lawyers with minimum fungibility Car Mechanic Plumber Dentist
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Anchored
Compensation determined by local conditions
Lawyer may outsource fungible services like research or document drafting to a legal aide in Bangalore
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Really Adaptable
Acquire new skills, knowledge, and expertise that enable value creation
Skillfully and socially adaptableAble to learn how to learnMay be survival skill for the anchored
lawyer
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
The Threatened
Those who areNot very specialNot very specializedNot very anchoredNot very adaptable
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
The Triple Convergence
Convergence One- The “ten forces” converge in complementary, mutually enhancing fashion- One machine scans, emails, prints, faxes, and copies
Convergence Two- Move from vertical chain of command for value creation to horizontal collaboration
Convergence Three- You don’t have to live in America to get good work. It’s a plug and play world.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
How the Profession Can Cope
Rule 1: When the world goes flat- and you are feeling flattened-reach for a shovel and dig inside yourself.
Don’t try to build walls
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
How the Profession Can Cope
Rule 2- And the small shall act big…One way small companies flourish in the flat world is by learning to act real big. Take advantage of new tools for collaboration to reach farther, faster, wider, and deeper.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
How Firms Can Cope
Rule 3: And the big shall act small… One way that big companies learn to flourish in the flat world is by learning how to act really small by enabling their customers to act really big. Make business a buffet for customers to serve themselves in their own way. Self directed consumer
Rule 4: The best companies are the best collaborators
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Cycles and Trends
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Trends v. Cycles
Cycle says wait it out and it will come back. Weather Markets
Trend says will not likely return to status quo We must deal with it or Let it take us wherever the trend goes
Watch out for Wild Cards
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Trend or Cycle
1. Substantive Practice Areas Threateneda. Family Law
b. Real Estate
c. Tax and Estate Planning
d. PI Defense
e. Litigation
f. Business advice
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
Family Law>70% Pro SeRules of Civil Procedure gone
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Pro se litigation
One party pro se in 85% of all cases in District Court and 48% in Superior Court
Both sides unrepresented in 38% of casesDomestic relations cases 70% one partyDomestic violence cases 97% one party
Report on NH Supreme Court Task Force on Self-Represented Litigants- January 2004
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
Real EstateRealtorsInternet
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Tax and Estate PlanningWills on-lineFinancial Planners, CPADeath of “Death Tax”
Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Jonathon Blattmachr
Estate tax eliminated in Canada over 20 years ago
First few years lawyers busy adjusting estate plans
After that Trusts & Estates practice dropped by 90%
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Estate Tax Repeal
Passed in House- Pending in SenateWhat are the implications to CLE
providers and estate planning lawyers?Is Canada’s repeal a model?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
House CounselTrade Association legal advice
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
PI DefenseInsurance companiesTort Reform
Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Tort Reform
“Economically destructive litigation”US most expensive tort system in the world$179 billion 2002 direct costs
$636 per capita 150% of amount spent on pharmaceuticals
Bills pending in 20 states11 states have passed legislation
“Trends” Volume 1, Issue 3, July 2003
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Senator Chuck Schumer, D NY
“Lawsuits have gotten out of control in America and something needs to be done to rein them in.”
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
President Bush- 2004
“Lawyers walk away with up to 40% of every settlement….for frivolous suits…driving a wedge between them (doctor) and patient.”
Unnecessary lawsuits drive docs to prescribe drugs and procedures to avoid lawsuits.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
House OKs Fines for Lawyers for Meritless Suits
House Majority Leader Tom DeLay
“…pestilent culture of hyper-litigation.”
Congress should “take back America’s legal system from the Lords of the Ambulance Chase.”
Reuters 9-14-04
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
LitigationSport for the wealthyGovernment attack on PI and Med MalPro se litigators
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
What is greatest problem facing the bar and its members today, ignorance or apathy?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Mary Ryan, ABA Committee on Delivery of Legal Services
“A lawyer is best defined as someone who provides the best services in a free market, not the only services in a protected market.”
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Are We Really Prisoners of Nostalgia??
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Trend or Cycle
1. Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
2. MJP
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
M PJ MDP AB P
What Does It Mean For Your Practice?
SA
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
2. Multijurisdictional Practice
Birbrower et. al v. Superior Court of Santa Clara County, 949 P.2d 1 (Cal 1998)
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
New Jersey MJP ArgumentsApril 2003
“Specific knowledge of New Jersey law, or the laws of any state, is overemphasized.” “You go to the computer or have someone do
it for you.”
“What are we, Planet New Jersey?”
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
New Jersey MJP contd
There are 60,000 New Jersey residents working in Philadelphia, and many thousands more in New York state.
What is rationale to place arbitrary borders on regional practice?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
MJP and reciprocity -breaking down the borders
The essential elements for reciprocal admission of Washington, Oregon, Utah and Wyoming attorneys in Idaho are:
Graduation from an ABA approved law school. Prior passage of the Washington, Oregon, Utah
and/or Wyoming bar examination. Three years of practice in Washington, Oregon,
Utah or Wyoming.Good moral character. Fifteen hours of CLE
Practice Procedure Ethics
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Borderless World
Regional/National reciprocity 26 states now
GATS TreatyDriver’s license approach
in 5-10 years
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Trend or Cycle
1. Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
2. MJP
3. Technology
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Law Office of the Future
A computer + a dog + a lawyer.The computer will practice law.The dog is there to keep the lawyer away from
the computer.The lawyer is there to feed the dog.
Dr. Peter Bishop, Associate professor of Human Sciences
University of Houston-Clear Lake
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
3. Technology Disintermediation
Internet Available to Everyone Wills, Tax Return
Prep On-line
Like Printing Press to Church/Temple
Literacy Brings New Relationships
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
The Future of Law: Facing the Challenges of Information Technology
Legal Profession Will Change Beyond Recognition
Three Types of Legal Service Traditional Commoditized Latent
Richard Susskind
TraditionalCommodity
Latent
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Susskind’s Key Questions
Likely developments in IT over next 10 years
Possibilities for law practice in light of IT changes
Future for lawyers and what part is the world wide web likely to play
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Transforming the Law; Essays on Technology, Justice and the Legal Marketplace-
Richard Susskind 2000
Introduces the “Susskind Grid”
First work tying together technology use and strategic future planning for lawyers
Selection ServiceRecognition
Figure 2.1 - Today’s Client Service Chain
blatanttrigger
selection of lawyer
consultativeadvice
C Richard Susskind 2000
Figure 2.4 - Transforming the Recognition elementof the Client Service Chain
blatanttrigger
proactiveservice
• infomediaries• legal audits• push technology• intelligent agents• embedded expertise• Intranet implants• business-episode based
Transforming the Recognitionelement of the Client Service Chain
blatanttrigger
from to
C Richard Susskind 2000
Figure 2.3 - Transforming the Selection elementof the Client Service Chain
selection of source of
guidance
selection of online service
selection of adviser
• assessment of need• infomediaries
• infomediaries
• infomediaries• online auctions• virtual teams
tofrom selection of lawyer
Transforming the Selectionelement of the Client Service Chain
C Richard Susskind 2000
Figure 2.2 - Transforming the Service elementof the Client Service Chain
unbundledservices
onlineservice
consultativeadvice
• commoditized• latent market• multi-disciplinary
• high-end, traditional
• project management • document management• legal research• strategy
Transforming the Serviceelement of the Client Service Chain
from consultativeadvice to
C Richard Susskind 2000
Selection ServiceRecognition
Figure 2.5 - Tomorrow’s Client Service Chain
blatanttrigger
selection of source of
guidance
unbundledservices
proactiveservice
selection of online service
selection of adviser
onlineservice
consultativeadvice
C Richard Susskind 2000
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Technology Disintermediation- Trend or Cycle?
What are implications if Susskind is correct?
Traditional- large firm, large client onlyCommodity- better, faster, cheaperLatent- may be no direct client contact
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Trend or Cycle
1. Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
2. MJP
3. Technology
4. Offshoring/reintermediation
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
4. Offshoring/Intermediation-Trend or Cycle?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Intel CEO Craig BarrettJan-Feb 2004 Business 2.0
In space of 5 years close to 3 billion people have been brought into mainstream capitalist economic infrastructure (India, China, Russia and some Russian satellite countries)
Substantially lower wages with comparable or superior education to US applicants.
“Unless you’re my auto mechanic or plumber, I don’t care where the hell you’re located.”
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Brad Hildebrandt 1-14-04
Outsourcing to India $10 billion in next 5 years
Hildebrandt offering 3 choices Consult with firm re outsourcing Several clients form captive outsourcing
firm Joint venture with existing
outsourcing company
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Lou Dobbs Report
8-10% of all associates hired by large law firms will be offshore hires (as in India) by 2011. 2000 1,793 off-shore 2005 14,200 2010 34,673 2015 74,672 U.S. Dept of Labor & Forrester Research
The new associates will take on roughly the same work as new associates handle in the firms now at less than 20% of the cost.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Outsourcing Hits Legal Services Star Tribune 1-16-2004
“First it was apparel workers-the working class-who saw their $10-an-hour jobs go overseas.”
“Now six-figure lawyers and legal support staffs are starting to sweat.” Westlaw has test office in Bombay
GE and other behemoths using Indian lawyers to supplant work formerly done by outside law firms.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Outsourcing Hits Legal Services contd
Forrester Research- by 2015 489,000 U.S. lawyer jobs will shift to lower cost countries
Mindcrest Inc. legal process outsourcing Enhanced levels of service and a 30-70%
lower cost to customer
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
“About a year ago I hired a developer in India to do my job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
No Limits?
“Short on Priests, U.S. Catholics Outsource Prayer to Indian Clergy”
—Headline, New York Times/06.13.04 (“Special intentions,” $.90 for Indians, $5.00 for Americans)
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Level 5 (top) certification/Carnegie Mellon Software
Engineering Institute:
35 of 70 companies in world are from India
Source: Wired/02.04
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Bye-Bye Associates?
“…the kind of work now being sent off shore, and expected to be increasingly sent off-shore, is work normally done by first/second-year associates in the largest law firms -- research, legal memos, that kind of thing.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Lexadigm.com
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Elawforum.com
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
John Henry- Founder/CEO elawforum
Aggregates large company legal problems and negotiates fixed-fee deals
“We just saved a client $55 million in 2 deals.”
“Our challenge now is to do a thousand of these deals.”
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
So Now What Do We Do?
Will our guild return to those glory days of yesteryear?
Are we experiencing discontinuous trends or are we merely in a cycle?
“I am persuaded more than ever that the status quo is not our friend,” Broderick
First question- Is status quo an option?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
So Now What Do We Do?
If answer to #1 is no, how do we get into the change process?
Role of the barRole of the individual lawyer/law firm
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Change or Die Fast Company May 2005
What if you were given that choice?
Yes, you say?
Try again
Yes?
You are probably deluding yourself
You wouldn’t change
You want odds?
Nine to one against you
How do you like those odds?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
IBM Global Innovation Outlook Conference 2004
Most farsighted thinkers from around the world to come together in New York to propose solutions to really big problems
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Global Innovation Problem One-Health Care
Crisis- $1.8 trillion/year in US alone 15% of gross domestic product
Dream team of experts expected to discuss Scientific breakthroughs Technology breakthroughs
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Root cause of Health Care Crisis Hasn’t Changed for Decades!
Medical establishment can’t figure out what to do about it.
Vast majority of health-care budget for well known and by and large behavioral. Sick because of how we choose to lead our
lives Not because of genetic factors beyond control
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
80% Health Care Budget Consumed by 5 Behavioral Issues
SmokingDrinkingEatingStressInsufficient exercise
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Coronary Bypass Surgery and Angioplasty Patients
Many patients could avoid return of pain and need to repeat the surgery, not to mention arrest the course of their disease before it kills them by switching to healthier lifestyles, but
90% don’t
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Changing Behavior of People
Not just the biggest challenge in health care
Also the biggest challenge in business (law practice)
Central issue is never Strategy Structure Systems
Changing behavior of peopleJohn Kotter
“The bottleneck is located at the top of the bottle”
Gary Hamel
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
21st Century Challenges
Competing in a turbulent worldBeing ready to respond to profound
upheavals in market dynamics such as Shift from regulated to deregulated
environment Entry into new practice areas Changing style of our work
Mentoring Technology advances
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Does Crisis Bring Change?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Does Crisis Bring Change?
Conventional wisdom says Yes
What about the heart disease victims?Giving people accurate analyses and
factual information about their situations?No
Why do we fight what we know to be in our own vital interests?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Kotter’s Insight
Behavior change happens mostly by speaking to people’s feelings.
True even in organizations focused on analysis and quantitative measurement.
Highly successful change efforts require that people see problems or solutions in ways that influence emotions, not just thought.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Emotional Persuasion
Not taught in business schoolsDoesn’t come naturally to those who
pride themselves on analytical thinking Lawyers Engineers Accountants Managers
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
The Ornish Experiment- Preventative Medicine Research Center
Providing health care information important but not sufficient
Need additional dimensions Psychological Emotional Spiritual
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Ornish Program
Vegetarian diet with less than 10% calories from fat.
Can reduce heart disease without surgery or drugs.
Medical establishment skeptical that people could sustain.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Mutual of Omaha sponsored trial-1993
333 patients with severely clogged arteriesHelped to quit smokingPut on Ornish dietTwice-weekly group support sessions led
by psychologist Meditation Relaxation Yoga Aerobic exercise
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Ornish Program contd
Program lasted 1 yearAfter 3 years, 77% of people stuck
with lifestyle changes and avoided bypass or angioplasty surgeries
Mutual of Omaha saved $30,000 per patient
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Why did Ornish Program Work?
Changes reason for change from fear of dying
Joy of living from feeling better and thinking of freedom from pain
“Joy is a more powerful motivator than fear.”
Dean Ornish, MD Dean Ornish, MD
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Framing Change
Frames are the “mental structures that shape the way we see the world.”
Part of the “cognitive unconscious”
The way we know what our frames are, or create new ones, springs from language.
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Our Frames
Do we see our law firm as a Military model with hierarchical chain of
command? Family? Village?
Each model would have us working together in different ways
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
The Big Challenge to Change Thinking
Our minds rely on frames, not factsConcepts are tied in the synapses of the
brain and are not changed by presenting us with a fact
For us to make sense of facts, the facts have to work within our concepts
Otherwise, facts go in and then right back out
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
When Facts Don’t Fit Our Concepts
They are not heard, orThey are not accepted as facts, orThey mystify us.Then we label the fact as irrational, crazy,
or stupid.The reason conservatives and liberals
each think the other side nuts. Brains are working within different frames
George Lakoff, Professor of Cognitive Science and Linguistics, University of California at Berkeley
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
What kind of Change Works Best?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Radical sweeping change works better than small, incremental change.
Important that there be some early wins with the radical change that are Visible Timely Unambiguous Meaningful
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Nicholas Negroponte
Incrementalism is Innovation’s Worst Enemy
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Supporting Change
Remember 90% of the heart patients went back to old lifestyle but
77% of Ornish’s patients stayed with the radical change Weekly support groups with other patients Attention from dieticians, psychologists,
nurses, and yoga and meditation counselors
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Is the Lawyer’s Brain Hardwired- Unable to Change?
Brain’s ability to change is lifelongSpecialists’ brain may develop in ways to
enhance the specialists skills but Specialization can instill rigidity
Brain stimulation through continuous learning works Active not the same as continuous learning
Learn Spanish or the oboe? What have you learned in the last 6 months? Self resume
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
If I Can’t Predict the Future, How Can I Prepare for the Future?
Peter Schwartz Inevitable Surprises
Build and maintain your sensory and intelligence systems.
Continue strategic conversations by discussing and interpreting the interaction of forces that might affect you.
Cultivate a sense of timing How rapidly is this approaching? When could it occur? How long do we have?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Preparing for the Future 2
Identify in advance the kinds of “early warning indicators” that would signal a change is rapidly upon you
Once the signals are identified, keep an eye out for them and be prepared to act when you observe them
Use short-term scenario exercises
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Preparing for the Future 3
Put in place mechanisms to engender creative destruction.
Discard what has worked in the past but may be moribund now.
What have you dismantled in the last year or two?
If none, may need to get some practice in before urgency strikes
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Preparing for the Future 4
Try to avoid denialDo not pretend that the “inevitable
surprise” is not happeningIf the scenario is plausible and you think it
would really hurt the organization, pay more attention to it
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Preparing for the Future 5
Be aware of the competence of your judgment, and the level of judgments new situations require
Move deliberately and humbly into new situations that stretch your judgment
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Preparing for the Future 6
Place a very, very high premium on learning.
Most failures to adapt are failures to learn enough in time about changing circumstances
Work will be increasingly knowledge intensive
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Mary Ryan, ABA Committee on Delivery of Legal Services
“A lawyer is best defined as someone who provides the best services in a free market, not the only services in a protected market.”
WHO ARE WE?
WHAT’S OUR
STORY?
WHAT’S OUR
DREAM?
EXACTLY HOW ARE WE
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT?
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Dakota tribal wisdom says that when you discover you are
riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
In law firms we often try other strategies with dead horses,
including the following:
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Changing riders
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Saying things like . . .
This is the way we always have
ridden this horse!
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Dead Horse?
What dead horse?What dead horse?
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Appointing a committee to study the horse
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Arranging to visit other firms to see how they ride dead
horses
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Increasing the standards to ride dead horses
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Declare the horse is "better, faster and cheaper"
dead
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Harnessing several dead horses together for increased
speed
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
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© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
Today’s Agenda
Why worry about the future?The 2005 environmentTrends v. CyclesHow to lead change and make it stick
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
How Firms Can Cope
Rule 5: In a flat world, the best companies stay healthy by getting regular chest x-rays and then selling them to their clients. Typical company has 40-50 components
Where is firm best in class? Where is firm differentiated? Where do you have potential but don’t want to
spend the money to get great? Let go of what you can outsource and focus
on the core competencies
© 2005 Charles F. Robinson
How Firms Can Cope
Rule 6: The best companies outsource to win, not to shrink. They outsource to innovate faster and more cheaply in order to grow larger, gain market share, and hire more and different specialists- not to save money by firing more people.