presentation at euro 2007
TRANSCRIPT
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EURO 2007, PragueMonday 9th July 2007
Biodiversity and Agricultural Production Planning by LPDaniel L. Sandars & E. Audsley
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Structure
• Background
• Methodological challenges
• Results
• Summary & (Discussion)
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Declining farmland birds
A political objective to
halt the decline
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Arable farming
• Why a decline? – reduced winter food resources• Intensification leads large-scale
homogenisation in the landscape• Herbicides lead to few weeds surviving to
harvest• High capacity machinery leads to timely
harvest and the swift removal of residues and stubble
• Increased winter sown cropping leads to less over wintering stubbles
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Policy questions
• How would farmers react, in the long term, to change?• Climatic• Technical• Financial• Regulatory• Social
• How does the cropping, environmental emissions and biodiversity change?
• What would make a particular management action appealing to farmers?
• For example, how will farmers respond to increasing prices of biofuel crops. What will the unintended consequences be?
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Model-based farm-level policy impactanalysis
• Linear Programming, such as Silsoe whole-FARM Model (SFARMMOD), is well established at predicting the optimizing behavioural response of farmers in response to choice and change in prices, technology and regulations.
• Recently extensions include environmental pollution, such as nitrate leaching as multiple objectives to be constrained or minimised
• We extend this modelling approach to predict the impact of biodiversity policy on farmers and the consequences of farming on biodiversity
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Soils and Weather
Workable hours
Profitability (or loss)
Crop and livestock outputs
Environmental Impacts
Possible crops, yields, maturity
dates, sowing dates
Silsoe Whole Farm ModelLinear programme, important features timeliness
penalties, rotational penalties, workability per task, uncertainty
Machines and
people
Constraints and
penalties
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Heavy
Medium
Light
Workable hours - typical profile
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Structure
• Background
• Methodological challenges
• Results
• Summary & (Discussion)
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Key tasks
Three main types of model extension are envisaged
1) Quantified measures of biodiversity, which could include four mammal species, indicator bird species, and weed species.
2) Field boundary features and the effects of spatial geometry. These are habitats that support biodiversity.
3) Incorporate sets of criteria to explain and predict the decision behaviour of a population of land managers
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Weeds, birds and mammals
• A wide varied of detailed ecological models• Habitat association models of birds• Difference equation and Markov chain models of
weed dynamics• Game theory models of bird populations and winter
feed availability• Development of a single metric ‘biodiversity units’?• Fitting these to an LP requires meta-modelling to
enable each to be quantified for the set of all farm plans
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LP model of weeds, etc
cR
dijC
iwQ
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rRxCaQQ
wdci
wdji
wi
W
dcidci
wdcidji
dji
wdji
ii
wi
W
crop previous todue change
at time cropon operation todue change
cropfor weedof populationdefault
weed,of population predicted total
where
,,
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,,
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Field boundary featuresSpatial geometry effects
• The length and depth of field boundary per cropped hectare effects field shape which effects the efficiency of field work
• A model of field work efficiency is being developed to quantify the effects and determine significant non-linear behaviour
• At a larger scale the increase of contract farming operations can mean entire farms are in a single crop in a given year
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Non linearity!
Can we maintain linearity and model the effects of promoting an increase in hedges and probable reduction in
field size
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Decision Making Behaviour 1
• Profit maximising (long-term net farm profit) accounts well for the aggregate production behaviour of farmers, but what about conservation behaviour?
• At farm level decision making behaviour may differ due personal values, views on future prices, risk, and the information available
• Conservation behaviour may involve the understanding of objectives such as ‘stewardship of the land’, and ‘professional pride/identity’, etc
• Aggregate behaviour can be built up from a distribution of farmer values. Is this a better decision model?
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Decision Making Behaviour 2
• Multiple Objective Decision Making (MODM) can be used. It is based on Multiple Attribute Value Theory (MAVT)
• The two common implementations are• Goal Programming (GP): Objectives are satisfied
by obtaining a series of hierarchical goals• Multiple Objective Programming (MOP):
Objectives are involved in a weighted trade-off• Which is better …both or ANP or Stated Choice or…?
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Structure
• Background
• Methodological challenges
• Results
• Summary & (Discussion)
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Comparison of cropping
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
%Census
Modelled
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Sensitivity to commodity prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
80% 90% 100% 110% 120%
Change in oilseed commodity price
Av
era
ge
cro
pp
ing
, h
a/
250
ha
fa
rm
Rotational setaside
Dried Peas
W.OSRape
Spring Barley
Winter Barley
Spring Wheat
Winter wheat
Stubble
Prices £/t: W Wheat £78, S Wheat £81, Barley £73, Peas £87, Rape seed £150Sandy clay loam with 595 mm annual rainfall
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Promoting spring crops v. stubbles
R2 = 0.2824
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 50 100 150 200 250
Spring crops, ha/ 250 ha farm
Stu
bb
les
ov
erw
inte
rin
g t
o m
id F
eb
.,
ha
/25
0 h
a
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Suppose over wintering stubbles are one measure of ‘stewardship’
0
50
100
150
200
250
£- £10,000 £20,000 £30,000 £40,000 £50,000 £60,000
Net farm profit, £/250 ha
Stu
bb
le a
rea
@ 1
4th
Feb
., h
a
£-
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
Ris
k, £
To
tal a
bso
lute
dev
iati
on
/ 25
0 h
a
Clay 700mm rainfall, stubble area Sand 500mm rainfall, stubble area
Clay 700mm rainfall, risk Sand 500mm rainfall, risk
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Structure
• Background
• Methodological challenges
• Results
• Summary & (Discussion)
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Summary
• Farmers on lighter and dryer soils can increase the amount of stubble available more readily than those on heavier wetter soils.
• However, in doing so the risks rise sharply• Promoting spring crops does not in itself provide
more stubble.• Raise farm incomes do to higher prices tends to
reduce winter stubble availability because the benefits of timeliness progressively outweigh machinery costs
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The ENDCollaborators
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Discussion
• Can we maintain linearity and its high utility• Can we identify the ‘missing’ attributes? Do they
exist? Would we be better quantifying the farmers true full economic costs?
• Can we quantify and model them for all farm plans?• Can we elicit preferences and value functions?• Can we generalise for all farmers for some farmers?• Can readily evaluate future, as yet unspecified
choices by estimating their attributes only?