presentation: actual and perceived effects of offshoring
TRANSCRIPT
Actual and Perceived Effects of Offshoring on Economic Security
William Milberg,Schwartz Center for Economic Policy AnalysisSchwartz Center for Economic Policy AnalysisNew School for Social Research
Deborah WinklerThe World Bank and the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysisy
Peterson InstituteOctober 4th, 2011
E i I it i I d t i li d C t iEconomic Insecurity in Industrialized Countries2
Economic Performance, Golden Age versus Post-Golden Economic Performance, Golden Age versus Post Golden Age (CAGR unless otherwise indicated)
Denmark France Germany Japan United Kingdom
United States
Gross Domestic Product* (CAGR)
1950 1973 3 8% 5 0% 6 0% 9 3% 2 9% 3 9%1950-1973 3.8% 5.0% 6.0% 9.3% 2.9% 3.9%1980-2007 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 3.0%
GDP per Person Employed* (CAGR)
1950-1973 2.9% 4.7% 4.7% 7.5% 2.4% 2.3%1950 1973 2.9% 4.7% 4.7% 7.5% 2.4% 2.3%1980-2007 1.7% 1.5% 0.8% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6%
Average Unemployment Rate (Percent of Labor Force)
1956-1973 1.1%** 1.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 5.0%
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2010b). Data: The Conference Board and Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Total Economy Database, January 2008. OECD Labor Force Statistics. *Converted at Geary Khamis PPPs. **Average based on 1960, 1965, 1967, 1969-1973.
1980-2006 7.2% 10.1% 7.6% 3.3% 7.9% 6.2%
E i I it i I d t i li d C t iEconomic Insecurity in Industrialized Countries3
Labor Share (% of GDP), 1970-2006Labor Share (% of GDP), 1970 2006
62 5%
65.0%
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
e (%
of G
DP)
47.5%
50.0%
52.5%
Labo
r S
hare
42.5%
45.0%
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2010b). Data: OECD Annual National Accounts Statistics.
Denmark France Germany Japan United Kingdom United States
Elasticity of trade to world income, 1960-now
Freund (2009) Freund (2009) 1960s: 1.77 1970s: 1 94 1970s: 1.94 1980s: 2.75 1990 3 36 1990s: 3.36 2000s: 3.69
Different Labor Market Regimes5
Policy Indicators of Labor SupportPolicy Indicators of Labor Support
Denmark France Germany Japan UK USNet Unemployment Replacement Rate 2001 80.1% 73.9% 68.5% 61.4% 49.4% 58.8%Short-term (%) 2007 77.8% 71.4% 66.5% 59.7% 57.1% 55.7%
Net Unemployment Replacement Rate 2001 76.8% 53.6% 65.0% 55.4% 60.9% 28.9%Long-term (%) 2007 74.1% 53.0% 59.5% 55.9% 58.9% 24.3%
Public Expenditures for Active 1985 4.7% 2.1% 1.7% n.a. 2.3% 0.8%Labor Market Programs (% of GDP) 1991 5.9% 2.3% 2.9% 0.6% 1.5% 0.9%
2001 4.1% 2.6% 3.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7%
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2011). Data: OECD Social Expenditures and OECD Tax-Benefit Models. NB: Short-term benefits refer to unemployment benefits that are paid within the first year of unemployment.
Long-term benefits refer to unemployment benefits which are paid after five years of unemployment.
2008 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0%
Diff L b M k R i6
Strictness of Employment Protection Legislation
Different Labor Market Regimes
Strictness of Employment Protection Legislation
1991 2001 20081991 2001 2008Denmark 2.40 1.50 1.50France 2.98 3.05 3.05Germany 3 17 2 34 2 12Germany 3.17 2.34 2.12Japan 1.84 1.43 1.43United Kingdom 0.60 0.68 0.75United States 0 21 0 21 0 21
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2011). Data: OECD Labor Statistics. NB: Higher values indicate stricter regulation on hiring and firing. Scale from 0 (least stringent) to 6 (most restrictive).
United States 0.21 0.21 0.21
Diff L b M k R i7
Five Different Labor Market Regimes
Different Labor Market Regimes
“Anglo-Saxon model”: U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada, Ireland, and New Zealand “Mediterranean model”: France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2010b). Data: OECD Employment Outlook 2004, OECD Social Expenditures and OECD Tax-Benefit Models.
Mediterranean model : France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain“Rhineland model”: Sweden, Germany, and Austria“Flexicurity model”: Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, and Belgium“East Asian model”: Japan and Korea
Diff L b M k R i8
Five Different Labor Market Regimes
Different Labor Market Regimes
Five Different Labor Market Regimes
Model Anglo-Saxon Mediterranean Rhineland Flexicurity East AsianLabor support low low medium to high high lowLabor flexibility high low medium to low medium to high mediumCountries Australia France Austria Belgium Japan
Canada Greece Germany Denmark KoreayIreland Portugal Norway FinlandNew Zealand Spain Sweden NetherlandsU.K.U.S.
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2011). Data: OECD Labor Force Statistics and OECD Going for Growth 2010 Database.* Public expenditures on Labor Market Programs include all measures except for “public employment services and administration”.
D i G i f Off h iDynamic Gains from Offshoring9
Static and Dynamic Effects of OffshoringStatic and Dynamic Effects of Offshoring •Substitution effect
Offshoring outputP DY I Output ProductivityinputP DL
DL
DL
Profits
y L•Productivity effect
outputP•Mark-up effect
DL•Scale effect
DYFinancialization
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2010a).
Off h i d th L b Sh i OECD C t iOffshoring and the Labor Share in OECD Countries10
We adopt Bentolila and Saint-Paul’s (2003) model of the labor share, LS, which assumes CES technology, yielding the following expression for the labor share of gy, y g g pincome:
(1) (1 )( ) 1 ( )B LLS A kγ
γα α− ⋅= = − ⋅
Capital intensity, i.e. the capital-output ratio, is defined as:
1 ( )( ) (1 )( )
LS A kA K B Lγ γ α
α α= = − ⋅
⋅ + − ⋅
(2)1/
Kkγγ⎛ ⎞
= ⎜ ⎟
The profit share, PS, is defined analogously, and thus
( ) (1 )( )k
A K B Lγ γα α= ⎜ ⎟⋅ + − ⋅⎝ ⎠
(3) 1PS LS+ =
Off h i d th L b Sh i OECD C t iOffshoring and the Labor Share in OECD Countries11
• Bentolila and Saint-Paul (2003) identify two sources of Bentolila and Saint Paul (2003) identify two sources of deviation from this relationship:▫ capital-augmenting technological progress induced changes, for
example by import price fluctuations, and ▫ divergence between wages and productivity, brought on, for
example by a shift in labor bargaining power example, by a shift in labor bargaining power • This leaves four explanatory variables in the labor share
model: ▫ technological progress▫ capital intensity
d ▫ import prices and ▫ labor bargaining power
Off h i d th L b Sh i OECD C t iOffshoring and the Labor Share in OECD Countries12
• Taking logarithms we obtain:Taking logarithms we obtain:
0 1 2 3 4ln ln ln ln lnit it it it ctLS A k MP UNDβ β β β β= + + + +
• We estimate the following version of the model:
0 1 2 3 4ln ln ln ln lnit it it it ct i t itLS LP k OFF UND D Dβ β β β β ε= + + + + + + +
• Interacting offshoring with a policy indicator at the country
0 1 2 3 4it it it it ct i t itβ β β β β
level yields the following equation:
0 1 2 3 4ln ln ln ln lnit it it it ctLS LP k OFF UNDβ β β β β= + + + +
1 1 2 1ln *it ct ct i t itOFF policy policy D Dδ δ ε− −+ + + + +
Off h i d th L b Sh i OECD C t iOffshoring and the Labor Share in OECD Countries13
• Regression Results, Fixed Effects Estimator, 1991-2008Dependent variable: lnLSt 1991-2008 1991-1999 2000-2008
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) lnLPt lnkt lnOFF
-0.0434*** -0.0370** -0.0370** (0.006) (0.016) (0.017) 0.0904*** 0.0978*** 0.0978*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
0 0292*** 0 0292***
-0.0596*** -0.0438** (0.000) (0.014) 0.0883*** 0.1096*** (0.000) (0.000) 0 1154*** 0 0620***
-0.1020*** -0.1290*** (0.001) (0.000) 0.1207*** 0.1117** (0.003) (0.011) 0 0759*** 0 0620***
-0.0936** -0.1200*** -0.0332 -0.0339 (0.039) (0.009) (0.601) (0.601) 0.1658*** 0.1649*** 0.2484*** 0.2508*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) 0 0208 0 0172 0 1235 0 0039lnOFFt
lnUNDt lnOFFt*EPLt-1 EPLt-1
0.0292*** 0.0292*** (0.000) (0.000) 0.0004 (0.994)
0.1154*** 0.0620***(0.000) (0.000) 0.0969* -0.0059 (0.060) (0.918) -0.0333*** (0.000) -0.0442*** (0.007)
0.0759*** 0.0620***(0.002) (0.001) 0.0203 -0.0701 (0.774) (0.348) -0.0262*** (0.002) -0.0312 (0.302)
0.0208 -0.0172 -0.1235 0.0039(0.556) (0.499) (0.173) (0.931) 0.3280 0.4158** 0.1023 0.2197 (0.124) (0.049) (0.611) (0.297) 0.0006 (0.964) -0.0317 (0.328)
lnOFFt*LMPt-1 LMPt-1 lnOFFt*URB_STt-1 URB_STt-1
-0.6950*** (0.006) -2.6858*** (0.005)
-1.1893*** (0.001) -5.0643*** (0.000)
1.9128* (0.053) -1.3638 (0.631) 0.2366* (0.067) 0.5585*
(0.078)lnOFFt*URB_LTt-1 URB_LTt-1
( ) 0.0602 (0.422) -0.0599 (0.887)
R-squared (within) Observations Countries Sectors by country
0.11 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.1 4,443 4,234 4,234 4,073 3,665 15 15 15 15 15 302 302 302 302 302
0.16 0.18 2,201 1,918 15 15 302 261
0.16 0.19 0.18 0.18 1,570 1,486 1,268 1,268 15 15 15 15 302 302 302 302
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2011). NB: p*<0.1, p**<0.05, p***<0.01 The regression analysis covers 21 manufacturing sectors in 15 OECD countries.
Sectors by country Fixed year effects Country-year clusters F-test of joint significance: lnOFFt + lnOFFt*policyt-1 = 0
302 302 302 302 302Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes p>F=0.0000 p>F=0.0001
302 261Yes Yes Yes Yes p>F=0.0051 p>F=0.0013
302 302 302 302Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes p>F=0.5269 p>F=0.1060 p>F=0.0366 p>F=0.1574
Off h i d th L b Sh i OECD C t iOffshoring and the Labor Share in OECD Countries14
• Offshoring and the Labor Share by Country, Fixed Effects Estimator, 1991-2008
Dependent variable: lnLS t
Offshoring p-value Offshoring p-value Offshoring p-value1991-2008 1991-1999 2000-2008
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Australia 0.1268*** 0.0010 0.1404*** 0.0060 -0.0414 0.3400Austria 0.1246** 0.0140 0.0099 0.5270 0.3045+++ 0.0080Denmark -0.0021 0.8490 0.0283++ 0.0480 0.0363 0.4560Finland 0 0396+ 0 0780 0 0406 0 3650 -0 0989 0 1660Finland 0.0396 0.0780 0.0406 0.3650 0.0989 0.1660Germany 0.1255*** 0.0000 0.1179*** 0.0070 0.1484++ 0.0430Italy 0.0503++ 0.0170 -0.0449* 0.0680 -0.0435 0.2550Japan -0.0277+ 0.0700 0.0088 0.6390 -0.0868+ 0.0770Korea 0.0139 0.3400 0.0502* 0.0860 -0.0307 0.1720Netherlands 0.1390*** 0.0080 0.0611 0.1860 0.2340++ 0.0120Norway 0.0803** 0.0480 0.0139 0.7670 0.0045 0.9410Portugal -0.0269 0.1880 -0.0595** 0.0420 -0.0769** 0.0200Spain -0.0331** 0.0420 -0.0653** 0.0310 -0.0931*** 0.0000Sweden 0.0436 0.1140 -0.0009 0.9810 0.1715* 0.0730UK 0.0001 0.9980 0.0139 0.7800 0.0589 0.4770US -0.1369** 0.0140 -0.0609 0.2050 -0.2268+ 0.0950
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2011). NB: p*<0.1, p**<0.05, p***<0.01 for instantaneous effect of offshoring (lnOFFt). p+<0.1, p++<0.05, p+++<0.001 for lagged effect of offshoring (lnOFFt-1).
Off h i d th L b Sh i OECD C t iOffshoring and the Labor Share in OECD Countries15
• Offshoring and the Labor Share by Country Grouping, Fixed Effects Estimator, 1991-2008
Dependent variable: lnLSt Anglo-Saxon model Mediterranean Rhineland Flexicurity East-Asian model model model model
(1a) (1b) (2) (3) (4) (5) lnLPt lnkt
-0.0280* (0.098) -0.0503 (0 113)
-0.0109 (0.499) -0.1129*** (0 000)
-0.1298** (0.024) 0.1378* (0 089)
-0.1971*** (0.001) -0.0233 (0 412)
-0.2606*** (0.000) 0.1434*** (0 000)
0.0048 (0.772) 0.1224*** (0 000)
lnOFFt lnUNDt
(0.113)0.0472** (0.018) 0.2498** (0.014)
(0.000)-0.0425* (0.078) 0.8931** (0.019)
(0.089)-0.0316*** (0.004) -0.1387 (0.100)
(0.412)0.0741*** (0.000) 0.3408** (0.015)
(0.000)0.0330** (0.030) 0.2680* (0.093)
(0.000)-0.0029 (0.798) 0.6473*** (0.000)
R-squared (within) 0.08 0.21 0.13 0.31 0.33 0.17q ( )Observations Countries Fixed year effects C t l t
875 Australia, UK, US Yes Y
560 UK, US Yes Y
533 Portugal, Spain Yes Y
827 Austria, Germany,Sweden Yes Y
856 Denmark, Finland, Netherlands Yes Y
620 Japan, Korea Yes Y
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2011). NB: p*<0.1, p**<0.05, p***<0.001 (p-values in parentheses).
Country-year clusters Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Summary of Econometric Results
Over full sample (15 OECD countries, 21 sectors, Over full sample (15 OECD countries, 21 sectors, 1990-2008): Greater offshoring intensity associated with higher labor share.gBut this veils important variation over time and space:pFor 2000-2008: Offshoring associated with lower labor share.Effect varies by country, esp. by labor market “regime”.U.S. estimate is negative and significant.
Off h i d P ti f E i I it17
Correlation of Actual and Perceived Insecurity due to
Offshoring and Perceptions of Economic Insecurity
Correlation of Actual and Perceived Insecurity due to Offshoring
AT*0 30
0.35
008
NL*
AT
SE*
DE*0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
he labor share,
ountry, 2000
‐20
IT*DK
UK
PT*FI
‐0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
offshoring
on th
oefficients by
co
ES* FI
‐0.15
‐0.10
‐4 ‐2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16Effect of o
regression
co
"When you hear the word 'globalisation', what comes first to mind?"
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2011). Survey data: Eurobarometer, Public Opinion in the EU, various surveys. * Significant estimates.
Answer: "Relocation of labour to countries where labor is cheaper"% points change, Fall 2004 ‐ Spring 2008
Off h i d P ti f E i I it18
Correlation of Actual and Perceived Insecurity due to
Offshoring and Perceptions of Economic Insecurity
Correlation of Actual and Perceived Insecurity due to Globalization
AT*0 30
0.35
008
AT*
DE*
NL*
SE*0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
he labor share,
ountry, 2000
‐20
DK
DE
IT*PT*
UK
‐0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
offshoring
on th
oefficients by
co
FI
ES*‐0.15
‐0.10
‐25 ‐20 ‐15 ‐10 ‐5 0 5 10Effect of o
regression
co
"Which of the following two propositions is the one which is closest to your opinion
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2011). Survey data: Eurobarometer, Public Opinion in the EU, various surveys. * Significant estimates.
with regard to globalisation?" Answer: "Threat to employment and companies"% points change, Spring 2006 ‐ Fall 2008)
Gains from offshoring: Static and Dynamic
Static gains: Efficiency gains from lower cost of inputs Static gains: Efficiency gains from lower cost of inputs and focus on « core competence. » Dynamic gains: lower input costs and higher profits y g p g pgenerate business expenditure (investment) bringing employment, productivity growth and innovation.
With dynamic gains, offshoring may raise the profit share in the short run but generate long-run growth.
Research on dynamic gains focuses on the U.S. case.
Off h i d Fi i li ti i th U SOffshoring and Financialization in the U.S.20
• U.S. Profit Shares, 1970-2007
40%
45%
GV
A
30%
35%
40%
its a
s sh
are
of G
20%
25%
%
Gro
ss p
rofi
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Gross corporate profits as share of corporate GVAGross nonfinancial corporate profits as share of nonfinancial corporate GVAGross financial profits as share of financial corporate GVA
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2010a). Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts.NB: Gross profits are calculated by adding net operating surplus and consumption of fixed capital. Their sum is divided by gross value added. Gray bars correspond to U.S. business cycles recessions according to the definition of the NBER.
Gross financial profits as share of financial corporate GVA
U.S. Import, profit, and investment shares, 1970 2006/071970-2006/07
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2010). Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and ProductAccounts; UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics. NB: Gross profits are calculated by adding net operating surplusand consumption of fixed capital. Their sum is divided by gross value added. Gray bars correspond to U.S. business cycles recessions according to the definition of the NBER.
U.S. Investment Shares, Total and Non financial Corporations 1970 2007
22
Non-financial Corporations, 1970-2007
100%
ts 20.0%
I
85%
90%
95%
e of
gro
ss p
rofit
ate
busi
ness
)
12.5%
15.0%
17.5%
as s
hare
of G
DI
70%
75%
80%
stm
ent a
s sh
are
nanc
ial c
orpo
ra
5 0%
7.5%
10.0%
ed in
vest
men
t a
60%
65%
70%
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Fixe
d in
ves
(non
fin
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
Priv
ate
fix
197
197
197
197
197
197
197
197
197
197
198
198
198
198
198
198
198
198
198
198
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
Fixed investment as share of gross profits (nonfinancial corporate business)
Private fixed investment as share of GDI
6 October, 2011Based on a paper of William Milberg and Deborah Winkler
Source: Own illustration. Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts. U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, Flow of Funds Account, Schedule Z.1. NB: Gross profits of nonfinancial corporate business are calculated by adding net operating surplus and consumption of fixed capital. Gray bars correspond to U.S. business cycles recessions according to the definition of the NBER.
Net Dividends plus Share Buybacks as % of Internal Funds, 1960-2008, U.S. Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
23
1960 2008, U.S. Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
160%
120%
140%
60%
80%
100%
20%
40%
0%
196
0-I
196
1-I
196
2-I
196
3-I
196
4-I
196
5-I
196
6-I
196
7-I
196
8-I
196
9-I
197
0-I
197
1-I
197
2-I
197
3-I
197
4-I
197
5-I
197
6-I
197
7-I
197
8-I
197
9-I
198
0-I
198
1-I
198
2-I
198
3-I
198
4-I
198
5-I
198
6-I
198
7-I
198
8-I
198
9-I
199
0-I
199
1-I
199
2-I
199
3-I
199
4-I
199
5-I
199
6-I
199
7-I
199
8-I
199
9-I
200
0-I
200
1-I
200
2-I
200
3-I
200
4-I
200
5-I
200
6-I
200
7-I
200
8-I
6 October, 2011Based on a paper of William Milberg and Deborah Winkler
Source: Own illustration. Data: U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, Flow of Funds Account, Schedule Z.1. NB: Quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates; share buybacks correspond to negative net new equity issues. Graybars correspond to U.S. business cycles recessions according to the definition of the NBER.
Dual role of offshoring in the leakage of dynamic gains from tradedynamic gains from trade
1. Raises profits that provide internal funds for 1. Raises profits that provide internal funds for financial asset purchases.2. Lowers the need for domestic investment since 2. Lowers the need for domestic investment since “tasks” are performed offshore.
Repurchases and Dividend payments, Top 30 Nonfinancial, Non-energy Corporations (percent of company net i 2000 2007)
25
income over 2000-2007)Rank Company
Stock repurchases
Cash dividends
Stock repurchases plus cash dividends
1 Microsoft 80 63 1432 IBM 63 15 783 Pfizer 76 61 1373 Pfizer 76 61 1374 General Electric 29 49 795 Ciscco Systems 151 0 1516 Intel 93 18 1107 Procter&Gamble 80 44 1248 Hewlett-Packard 128 33 1609 H D t 54 16 709 Home Depot 54 16 70
10 Wal-Mart Stores 31 20 5111 Johnson & Johnson 39 37 7612 Dell 136 0 13613 Time Warner -56 -4 -6014 Oracle 92 0 9215 AT&T Inc 25 65 9016 Pepsico 64 35 9917 United Health Group 95 1 9518 Amgen 126 0 12619 Altria Group 26 56 8220 Walt Disney 92 27 11820 Walt Disney 92 27 11821 UPS 64 34 9922 CBS -70 -9 -7823 Texas Instruments 108 10 11924 Merck 34 53 8725 3M 58 43 101
ld26 McDonalds 64 30 9427 Boeing 69 33 10228 Allstate 49 27 7729 Anheuser-Busch 69 37 10630 Wellpoint 99 0 99
Implications for sustainability of globalization
1. Trade liberalization will increase task trade. 1. Trade liberalization will increase task trade. 2. Labor market institutions and regulations significant in mediating effect of offshoring on significant in mediating effect of offshoring on economic security. More labor market support associated with more positive effect.p3. Corporate financial considerations can significantly affect the capture of dynamic gains from trade.4. Fear of offshoring not rooted in myth: Actual and perceived effects of offshoring are correlated.
Thank you!y
[email protected]@newschool.edu
Backup slidesp
D i G i f Off h iDynamic Gains from Offshoring29
Offshoring Intensities in OECD Countries, 1991-2008Offshoring Intensities in OECD Countries, 1991 2008Manufacturing imports from low and middle income countries in total manufacturing imports
22%
16%
18%
20%Norway
Denmark
A i
8%
10%
12%
14% Austria
Sweden
P t l
4%
6%
8%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Portugal
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2011). Data: UN Comtrade. NB: Manufacturing imports comprise imports to sectors 15 to 36 at the two-digit ISIC Rev 3 level.
D i G i f Off h iDynamic Gains from Offshoring30
Offshoring Intensities in OECD Countries, 1991-2008Offshoring Intensities in OECD Countries, 1991 2008Manufacturing imports from low and middle income countries in total manufacturing imports
32%
24%
28%
Finland
Italy
12%
16%
20% Netherlands
Spain
4%
8%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
UK
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2011). Data: UN Comtrade. NB: Manufacturing imports comprise imports to sectors 15 to 36 at the two-digit ISIC Rev 3 level.
D i G i f Off h iDynamic Gains from Offshoring31
Offshoring Intensities in OECD Countries, 1991-2008Offshoring Intensities in OECD Countries, 1991 2008Manufacturing imports from low and middle income countries in total manufacturing imports
40%
45%
50%
55%Japan
US
25%
30%
35% Korea
Australia
10%
15%
20%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Germany
Source: Milberg and Winkler (2011). Data: UN Comtrade. NB: Manufacturing imports comprise imports to sectors 15 to 36 at the two-digit ISIC Rev 3 level.