presentation 3: information and knowledge gaps addressed ......presentation 3: information and...
TRANSCRIPT
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IPCC presentations for the Structured Expert Dialogue
Presentation 3: Information and knowledge
gaps addressed in the IPCC 2018-19 Special
Reports with regard to scenarios to achieve the
LTGG and the range of associated impacts
Team:Zinta Zommers, SRCCL Lead Author
Michael Oppenheimer, SROCC Coordinating Lead AuthorAlex Magnan, SROCC Lead Author
Helene Jacot de Combes, SROCC Lead AuthorBruce Glavovic, SROCC Coordinating Lead Author
Roderik Van De Wal, SROCC Lead Author
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Impacts:
Past & future changes in the ocean & cryosphere
SROCC Figure SPM.1
Red = High Emissions (RCP8.5)
Blue = Low Emissions (RCP2.6)
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Impacts - Sea level change
Ocean heat content0-2000m depth
SROCC Figure SPM.1, Panels E, F, G
Red = High Emissions (RCP8.5)
Blue = Low Emissions (RCP2.6)
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Impacts - Observed surface air temperature over land compared with global mean surface air temperature
SRCCL Figure SPM.1, Panel A
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Impacts – Desertification & Land Degradation
SRCCC Figure SPM.1, Panel F
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Impacts & Risks to Ocean Ecosystems
SROCC Figure SPM.3, Panel D
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SROCC Figure SPM.4
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Risks from Changes in Land-based Processes
SRCCL SPM Figure 2,Panel A
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SRCCL SPM Figure 2, Panel B
Risks from different socio-economic pathways
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Risk from converting land to dedicated bioenergy
SRCCL Chapter 7 Figure 7.3
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Different types of responses to coastal risk and sea level rise
SROCC Box 4.3, Figure 1
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Sea level rise risks & responses
SROCC Figure SPM.5, Panel A
R = Maximum potential response
r = No-to-moderate response
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Knowledge Gaps?
• Knowledge Gaps filled since last SED
✓ Increasing understanding of diversity of impacts and risks
✓ Increasing awareness of adaptation needs
✓ Increased understanding of costs of inaction
• Remaining knowledge gaps
o Impacts of rate of climate change on risk, risk tolerance
o Adaptation limits, maladaptation, effectiveness of adaptation
o Quantified savings/ avoided losses from timely action
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Conclusion
• There is increasing evidence that several climate-related physical
changes to ocean and cryosphere have accelerated over recent
decades, and that land is under increasing pressure.
• Risk increases with any additional warming but risk also strongly
depends on development choices and on the ability to implement
response options early.
• Many changes will continue up to 2100 and beyond under all
scenarios, generating an unavoidable long-term commitment to
increasing impacts and risk.
• However, the rate and amount of change (e.g., in sea level) are
minimized under low emission scenarios.