present dec 09apr2013 final.pptx

7/28/2019 Present Dec 09apr2013 Final.pptx

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Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

EVS 2013

Final Group Report Presentation

Decoupling of Environmental Pressure fromQuality of Life

March 2013

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The Team DEC

Philip Kuhlmann, GER

Uni: Leuphana Universitt Lneburg

Study: Environmental Science

Status: Student

Expertise: Environmental chemistry

Julia Mller, GER

Uni: Leuphana Universitt Lneburg


Expertise: environmental andspatial science

Nathalie Smits, NL

University: Open Universiteit Nederland


Status: research/ project leader

Expertise: Immunochemistry, Food Safety

Christina Schmitt, GER

Uni: FernUni Hagen,


Status: Vice Presid./ Global Telco comp.

Expertise: Economics, Marketing,

different industries

Charlotte v. Mllendorff, GER

University of Oldenburg

Study: Sustainability Economics

Status: student

Expertise: Economics

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Project Scope & approach

Decoupling

Conclusion

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Scope: focus on energy production

Decoupling is achieved

when the environmentalpollution goes down whilethe quality of life goes up

Assessment of Decoupling environmental pressure

due to energy use from quality of life in Germany, theNetherlands and Romania

Relevance of DEC: decrease of environmentaldamage to achieve a sustainable development inEurope

What is Decoupling?

Definition of term

Project Decoupling of Environmental Pressure from

Quality of Life

Project Scope

Analyzing environmental influence of energyproduction on DEC

Use of specific indicators to measure DEC inGermany, The Netherlands and Romania

Explicit excluded is:indicator of quality of air

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Project approach in 3 steps

Identified challenges and hurdles, e.g.

Project scope to be focused due to project time schedule and project resources Data availability for Romania, NON-EU country

Data access limited (avoid costs for data)

Definition of project:

Define & focus projectscope

Define relevant countries(=students nationalities):GER, NL, RO

3 Hypothesis

Develop research report

Infrastructure & Orga

Define teamwork/

structure, Roles &Responsibilities

Derive

Conclusion

Data preparation(e.g. tables,graphs)

Review of 3hypothesis data

Conclusion

Development ofoutlook

Research

Select data sources

Analysis of indicators:

Quality of life: GDP

Sox , NOx , CO2

Research countries

Data evaluation percountry

Comparison and

interpretation of dataresults

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DEC Members 3 0 (1)* 1

OECD X

EU Member (1952) (2007) (1952)

Population 82 Mio. 21,5 Mio. 16,4 Mio.

Size (km) 356.854 237.500 41.526

GDP / Capita constant 2000US$ (2011) 26.207 2.633 26.653

Average energy consumption /capita 1990-2013 (kWh)

6727 2298 6366

per kWh Electricity(Consumption 2 GWh/year)

0,1127 0,0896 0,0711

3 selected countries

* Team formerly started with a student from Romania. 6


7/26Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

3 HypothesisHypothesis

Decoupling

Economic crisis has noeffect on the quality of life

(energy reduction)

OECD membershipimportant for decoupling theenvironmental pressure of

energy production

Quality of life changed in apositive way with renewable

energy production.

Target:Analyze effect ofdeclining economicalsituation and energyreduction

Target: verify positiveeffects of OECDmembership andenvironment as well as theenergy production.

Target:Analyze positiveeffects of renewableenergy on quality of life.

Analyze Renewable energy(methods, sources,characteristics )

1 2 3

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Decoupling

Conclusion

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Chosen variables to studyobjective and subjectiveappreciation of quality of life:

Gross Domestic Productas an objective variable

Happiness as subjectivevariable

Quality of life Environmental Pressure

Chosen indicators to studyenergy-related decoupling:

GHG, SOx and NOx

emissions from energyuse per unit of GDP

CO2 emissions fromelectricity generation

Selected

variables

Decoupling

Decoupling

in theory

Absolute decoupling: economic growth is rising while the environmentalpressure decreases or stays at the same level.

Relative decoupling: environmental pollution is growing but remainsbelow the economic growth rate.

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Decoupling results (I)

GHG, SOx and NOx emissions

per unit of GDP and Happiness

1990 = 100 1990 = 1001990 = 100

year yearyear

GDP, Happiness, GHG, NOx and SOx

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Decoupling results (II)

CO2 emissions intensity

of electricity generation

year yearyear

1990 = 100 1990 = 1001990 = 100

total electricity production versus CO2 emissions from electricity production.

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Hypo 1: Effect of economic crisis

The economic crisis has no effect on the quality of life and does not affect decouplingrates in terms of energy reduction.

1

Decoupling could not be observed during the

economical crisis

Graph for GER shows a decrease for the totalGDP of around 100 billion US$ (constant 2000US$) during the economical crisis.

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Hypo 2: OECD membership

OECD membership important for DEC in GER and NL. Decoupling rates of GER andNL higher than decoupling rates in RO.

2

OECD member countries GER and NL perform partly betterin DEC effectOECD positive forenvironmental politics & sustainable responsibility.

Awareness of countries relevant to support environmental global politics bychanging energy-related processes and consumption.

Fear:high risk for environment with new and growing markets, BRIICSRenewable energy production much lower in BRIICS/Rest-of-world than in OECDs.

Fig.: GHG emissions, 1970-2005,(OECD, 2012b: 78).

Fig.: GHG emissions by region:Baseline, 2010-2050 (OECD, 2012b:25).

Fig.: Government RD&D expenditures inenergy in IEA member countries: 1974-2009(OECD 2012b:102)

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Hypo 3: Quality of life and RE

The quality of life changed in a positive way during the time period of the last twodecades when renewable energy production experienced an impressive development.

3

Hypothesis can be divided in 2parts:

1. Quality of life changed in apositive way: true

2. Impressive renewable energydevelopment over the last twodecades: true

This howeverdoesnt assign acausal relationship between the2 parts

share of the total energy production for Germany, The Netherlands and Romania.

%

year

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Decoupling

Conclusion

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ConclusionSummary of results Conclusion and Outlook

Effects ofeducation and informationtransparency could be analyzed due tothe energy use and environmental impact

Idea of development without economicgrowth interesting perspective consumer behavior impact

Sufficiency and consistence strategy

next to efficiency strategy arefundamental for sustainable developmentin Europe

GHG emissions (energy): environmentalimpact of 70-80%

The higher GDP, the higher the use ofenergy, positive correlation

Happiness factor varies, no positivecorrelation

CO2, NOx, SOx directly correlate withenergy production per capita (GER, NL,RO)

Absolute DEC existing in regard to CO2,SOx and NOx emissions

Absolute DEC related to CO2 emissionsnot existing in NL

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Benefits of diversity

Broad and different expertise ofstudents: economics, environmentalstudies

Partly experience with decoupling Students represented twonationalities: GER and DE.(Romanian, Portuguese and Austrianmembers unfortunately left group).

Member activity: differentperspectives, continuous new ideas,solution approaches etc.

Challenges

Virtual teamwork as challenge.Reliability and discipline prerequisitesfor successful EVS study

Team member structure and sizeinstable. Work had to be shifted acouple of times.

Limited support of EVS coordination,(module fee vs value not 100% clear)

Experience with EVS

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Thank You!

Yours DEC Team

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BACK UP

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Project approach in 3 steps (Details)

Identified challenges and hurdles, e.g.

Project scope to be very focused due to EVS & project time schedule and project resources Data availability for Romania, NON-EU country

Data access limited (avoid costs for data)

Definition of project, define Project charter

Project scope(focus: quality of life GDP asindicator)

Relevant countries (=studentsnationality): GER, NL, RO

3 Hypothesis base for research

And develop research report

Align with EVS experts

Infrastructure & Organisation

Define/implement teamworkstructure and Roles &Responsibilities

Schedule project timing along EVStimetable

Derive Conclusion Data preparation

(e.g. tables, graphs)and interpretation

Review and proof 3hypothesis using data

Summary of allfindings

Development ofoutlook of additionalimportant instrumentsand strategies toevaluate decouplingand sustainabledevelopment

Research Select reliable data sources

per country and Europe

Analysis criteria and factors:

Quality of life: GDP asobjective variable

Sox, Nox, CO2

Verify/ falsify hypothesis

Data evaluation countries

Data per country and variableand time period (1990-2010)

Ensure data comparability(Challenge: RO not in EU)

Comparison, derivation and

interpretation of data results

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3 Hypothesis (Details)Hypothesis

Decoupling

The economic crisis has noeffect on the quality of life and

does not affect decoupling ratesin terms of energy reduction.

OECD membership of a countryis of importance for decoupling

the environmental pressure ofenergy production in GER, NL.The decoupling rates of GER

and NL are higher thandecoupling rates in RO.

The quality of life changed in apositive way during the time

period of the last two decadeswhen renewable energy

production experienced animpressive development.

Target: find out / verify that adeclining economical situation theenergy reduction will not be effected

in a positive way. Proof: when the economical

situation gets worse in GER, NL, ROthe quality of life of the populationwill stagnate or even still grow.

Optional relevant factors foreconomic crisis: GDP, GrossGovernment depth, deficit orsurplus, (Youth) Unemployment rate

Target: analyse/ verify positiveeffects of an OECD membership ofa country on the environment and

the energy production. 3 Key criteria for OECD membership

(OECD Strategy for Enlargementand Outreach):

open economy, pluralist democracy, and respect for human rights.

Identify the potential influence ofOECD membership

Target: analyse/identify positiveeffects and dependencies of

renewable energy on quality of life inselected countries.Analyse Renewable energy regard.:

methods and different sources,characteristics like efficiency ofenergy production and emissions.

Also: limits of energy sources to betaken in consideration in entiredanalysis or report.

1 2 3

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Hypo 2: OECD membership (Details)

OECD membership of a country is of importance for decoupling the environmental pressure ofenergy production in Germany and the Netherlands. The decoupling rates of Germany and the

Netherlands are higher than decoupling rates in Romania.

2

OECD member countries GER and NL perform partly betterin DEC effect (base: GDP, emissions) compared to the non-OECD member country RO. NL/GER sustained steady reduction in SOx /NOx emissions that exceeds those observed ratesin RO.

RO performed better regarding the reduction of GHG emissions.

Better performance of NL and GER in reducing air pollution occurs not only out of the OECD membership. Additionally theHelsinki Protocol accelerates the environmental oriented politics and decoupling effects.

Analysis allows opinion that OECD membership has positive effect on environmental politics and sustainableresponsibility of an economy.

OECD member countries are active in several organisations, e.g. GER and NL members of the International EnergyAgency (IEA, 2013), Helsinki Protocol initiated by the UNECE (UNECE, 2013b).

All three countries are member of the UNECE (UNECE, 2013) with environmental policies as one main area of activity. Single relation of the environmental benefits to OECD insufficient. Effects of the different initiatives and activities cannot

be separated as they are not independent. Awareness of countries more relevant for the necessity to support environmental global politics of any organisation by

changing energy-related processes and consumption. E.g. RO entered EU in 2007, started to apply for and fulfil EUdirectives and energy policy and legislation. Positive effects are discovered.

Fear:high risk for environment will occur out of the development of the new and growing markets, like the BRIICS (Brazil,Russia, India, Indonesia, China).Beside Russia (currently non-OECD-member but cooperates with organisation since 1992) none of the BRIICS isorganized or supports global environmental programs of e.g. the OECD or IEA.

Share ofrenewable energy of total energy production much lower in BRIICS and Rest-of-world-countries than in theOECDs.

Not only the IEA countries but all other countries could benefit from the developments and innovations. Centralized

initiatives like IEA ensure the corporation and the bundling of know-how.

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Hypo 2: Effect of economic crisisOECD membership of importance for decoupling the environmental pressure

2

Fig.: GHG emissions, 1970-2005, (OECD, 2012b: 78). Fig.: GHG emissions by region: Baseline, 2010-2050 (OECD,2012b:25).

Fig.: Commercial energy production by fuel: Baseline, 2010-2050(OECD, 2012b: 63).

Fig.: Government RD&D expenditures in energy in IEAmember countries: 1974-2009 (OECD 2012b:102)

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Chosen two variables to study objectiveand subjective appreciation of quality oflife

Gross Domestic Product, which

represents all economicactivities in a nation, asobjective variable.

Happiness, representssubjective appreciation of life-as-awhole.

Quality of life Environmental Pressure

Chosen indicators to study energy-related decoupling according toOECD (OECD, 2002:13): GHG, SOx and NOx emissions

from energy use per unit of GDP.

CO2 emissions from electricitygeneration.

Selected

variables

Decoupling

Decoupling

in theory

Separation of two objects/ actions so that they will work or appear independentfrom each other We studied decoupling between environmental pollution and quality of life Absolute decoupling: economic growth is rising while the environmental pressure

decreases or stays at the same level Relative decoupling: environmental pollution is growing but remains below the

economic growth rate

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Selected variables: DetailsGHG

Primary greenhouse gases: water vapor,carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide andozone

Kyoto protocol

SOx

Wwinter smog, acidification, adverseeffect on human health

Emission reduction agreed upon in theHelsinki protocol of the convention of

LTRAP GER, NL E.g.: Switch from high sulphur solid and

liquid fuels to natural gas/ low-sulphurcoal and flue gas desulphuristion

NOx

Gothenburg protocol, emission ceilings per

country

Combustion modification technologies/implementation of flue-gas abatementtechniques and fuel switching from coal to gas

CO2

Kyoto protocol

Emission trading/ clean developmentmechanism/ joint implementation

Potential in renewable energy

Relevant

criteria/

figures

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j 0 O C S 09

Hypo 3: Quality of life and renewable energy

The quality of life changed in a positive way during the time period of the last two decades whenrenewable energy production experienced an impressive development.

3

Hypothesis can be divided in 2 parts1. Quality of life changed in a positive

way: true, as a rise in GDP is seen inall three countries, and a stagnatedor very small rise in happiness

2. Impressive renewable energydevelopment over the last twodecades: true, the termimpressive can of course alwayslead to discussion, however apositive trend is seen for energyobtained from renewable sources.

This doesnt assign a causalrelationship between the 2 parts

share of the total energy production for Germany, The Netherlands and Romania.

%

year

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present dec 09apr2013 final.pptx

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