present and future phosphorus use in europe: food system scenario analyses
DESCRIPTION
Presenter: Kimo van Dijk, Researcher Nutrient Managment and Phosphorus Security, Wageningen University Co-authors: Oene Oenema & Jan Peter Lesschen Title: Present and future phosphorus use in Europe: food system scenario anaylyses Location: Sustainable Phosphorus Summit 2014, Montpellier, France Date: 1 September 2014 Personal website: http://kimovandijk.weebly.comTRANSCRIPT
Present and future phosphorus use in
Europe: food system scenario analyses
Kimo van Dijk
Oene Oenema & Jan Peter Lesschen
Wageningen University, [email protected]
Sustainable Phosphorus Summit 2014, Montpellier, France, 1 September 2014
Overview
Phosphorus (P) cycling
Present P flows in Europe
Sustainable P use options in society
Dynamic food system model
Future P use scenario analyses
Summary & conclusions
Geological versus anthropogenic cycles
RESOURCE
RESERVES
SINKS
Society
Crops
Animals
Industry & retail
Consumers
Non-
food
Losses Inputs
[90% fertilizer,
and other
mineral P use]
Geological cycle
Direct
IMPACTS
Anthropogenic cycle
Phosphorus use in the EU-27 in 2005
Detergent,
wood, paper
& fibers
Crops, fish,
food products &
mineral additives
Animal feed,
mineral additives
& live animals
Mineral fertiliser,
seeds & pesticides
Solid & liquid
organic waste
Organic wastes
Wood, paper &
fibers
Slaughter
residues, solid &
liquid waste
Crops &
food products
Manure losses
Live animals
Leaching & runoff
Seeding materials
Input Output
Soil [150,000]
Flows & stocks in Gg = Mkg = kton P per year
Global fertilizer P consumption 1961-2010
FAOSTAT data 2010
Fertilizer P consumption in EU-27 in 2010
FAOSTAT data 2010
Animal feed P origin in EU-27 in 2005
Source: Miterra-Europe model, CAPRI & FAOSTAT data 2003-2005
Agronomic P balances in the EU
Annual regional agricultural P balances [kg P/ha] for EU-15 in 2000
Estimated cumulative P balances [kg P/ha] of EU countries during 1991–2005
Source: Csathó & Radimszky 2012
Source: Csathó &
Radimszky 2012
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Do
me
stic
fo
od
P s
up
ply
[kg
/ca/
year
] Animal
Plant
Domestic food P supply in EU-27 in 2005
Domestic food P supply necessary to fullfill human dietary P intake requirements at consumption level
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
Minimum P intake requirement
Mean EU P intake
Maximum P intake level
Reuse of organic waste in EU-27 in 2005
Based on Barth et al. 2008
Sludge destinations in EU-27 in 2010
Source: P-Rex, FP7 project, www.p-rex.eu; based on Eurostat
2010, Milieu Ltd 2010 & Destatis 2011
P concentrations in rivers and lakes in EU
regions, period 1990 - 2005
Source: European Environment Agency, 2007
Potential phosphorus losses in society
Three ‘types’ of potential P losses:
● Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, co-firing or use in the cement industry
● Accumulation: in agricultural soils or the environment
● Export: flows with unclear destinations
Avoidable and unavoidable losses
Point and diffuse sources
Direct and indirect actors
Transition towards sustainable P use
•remove non-essential P inputs (e.g. detergents)
•match P requirements more closely (precision agriculture)
•utilise legacy P stores
Realign P inputs
•optimise input management
•minimise runoff and erosion
•strategic retention zones
Reduce P losses to water
•avoid wastage
•improve utilization efficiency
•adopt integrated production systems
Recycle P in bioresources
•recover P in societies' wastes
•produce fertilizer substitutes
Recover P in wastes
•influence dietary choice
•define end-user P requirements
•re-connect crop and animal production systems
Redefine P in the food chain
Withers, Van Dijk, et al. (submitted)
P recycling potential in EU-27
[Gg P/year] Total Recycled Potential
Sewage sludge 297 115 182
Biodegradable solid waste 130 38 92
Meat & bone meal 128 6 122
Total (minimum) 427 153 274
Total (maximum) 555 160 396
Mineral fertiliser use 1448
Manure use 1763
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
EU-27 P use scenario analyses
Objectives & research questions
To develop a dynamic model for the analysis of the effects of changes in drivers and nutrient management strategies on P dynamics in the food chain.
What would be the P dynamics & food production in EU-27 in case of a stop of P import via
● Q1: mineral fertilizers?
● Q2: mineral fertilizers and animal feed?
Q3: What are effects of best management practices (BMPs) on food production and P use efficiency?
Dynamic Food System model
Mass balance principle
Data: Miterra-Europe, CAPRI,
FAOSTAT, Eurostat, reports,
articles and experts
EU-27 at country level,
timesteps of one year
Entire food system + non-food
P imports, exports, losses and
internal flows
Flows described dynamically as
function of sector input
Crop P uptake as function of
soil P stock and P application
Scenarios & best management practices
The scenarios are:
● BAU: present (~2005), Business as Usual
● S1: no P import via fertilizer
● S2: no P import via fertilizer + compound feed
● S3: as S2 + BMPs
The best management practices (BMPs) are 90 % less:
● biowaste + waste water P losses (HC)
● forestry sector losses (NF)
● slaughter waste losses (FP)
● stable manure losses (AP)
No changes in other drivers and factors, such as population, agricultural area, crop types etc.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
05
20
30
20
55
20
80
21
05
21
30
21
55
21
80
22
05
22
30
22
55
22
80
Ave
rage
cro
p P
up
take
[kg
P/h
a/ye
ar]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Per ha EU-27 crop P uptake per scenario
for 2005-2300
50 %
25 %
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
20
05
20
30
20
55
20
80
21
05
21
30
21
55
21
80
22
05
22
30
22
55
22
80
Ave
rage
so
il P
sto
ck [
kg P
/ha]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Per ha EU-27 soil P stock per scenario for
2005-2300
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Fran
ce
Lith
uan
ia
Luxe
mb
ou
rg
Ire
lan
d
Ge
rman
y
Swe
de
n
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Bel
giu
m
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Ital
y
Bu
lgar
ia
Mal
ta
Den
mar
k
Gre
ece
Esto
nia
Spai
n
Ro
man
ia
Ne
ther
lan
ds
Po
rtu
gal
Fin
lan
d
Slo
vaki
a
Po
lan
d
Au
stri
a
Latv
ia
Hu
nga
ry
Cyp
rus
Slo
ven
ia
BAU
S1
S2
S3
Per capita food P supply per Member State
per scenario in 2050
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
20
05
20
30
20
55
20
80
21
05
21
30
21
55
21
80
22
05
22
30
22
55
22
80
Ave
rage
fo
od
P s
up
ply
[kg
P/c
a/ye
ar]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Changes in per capita food P supply in
EU-27 per scenario for 2005-2300
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
20
05
20
30
20
55
20
80
21
05
21
30
21
55
21
80
22
05
22
30
22
55
22
80
Ave
rage
dry
mat
ter
yie
ld [
kg P
/ha/
year
]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Changes in dry matter crop yield in EU-27
per scenario for 2005-2300
50 %
33 %
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
Conclusions for the present state
Europe is largely dependent on P imports via:
● Mineral fertilizers (60%), animal feed & additives (20%),
food (10%) & non-food materials (10%)
Ongoing P accumulation in agricultural soils, especially in western Europe by P surplusses
Various recycling rates, generally low (except manure):
● Sewage sludge P recycling ranging from 0 - 90%
● Compost P re-use ranging from 0 - 70%
Significant P losses via:
● Waterways: sewage discharge, leaching & erosion
● Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, infrastructure
High potential to improve P use efficiency
Conclusions for future scenarios
Soil P is an important stock to take into account in P dynamics, because of its buffering capacity and large size (~150.000 Gg P)
A stop on P fertilizer import has a large effect on food production, mainly on the longer term
A stop on P import via fertilizer and animal feed makes the effect even more pronounced, causing a larger and earlier drop in food production
The effects can be mitigated by the implementation of best management practices in nutrient management
Additional data is necessary, especially for downscaling to the regional level
Thank you for
your attention
Questions? Comments? Suggestions? [email protected] / [email protected] Twitter: @kimovandijk Website: kimovandijk.weebly.com
Additional literature and links
Presentation “Phosphorus use in Europe”, European Sustainable P conference, 6-7 March
in Brussels: http://www.phosphorusplatform.eu/images/Presentation_KimovanDijk.pdf
Outcomes 2nd Scientific European Phosphorus Workshop in Wageningen:
http://www.wageningenur.nl/sepw2013
Lesschen et al. 2013. Options for closing the phosphorus cycle in agriculture; Assessment
of options for Northwest Europe and the Netherlands. edepot.wur.nl/289653
K.A. Wyant, J.R. Corman, and J.J. Elser. Phosphorus, Food, and Our Future. Oxford
University Press, New York City, New York, USA.
http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199916832.do#.UcHr6fY6VVM
European Commission - Sustainable Phosphorus Use:
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/IR7.pdf
Dutch Nutrient Platform: www.nutrientenplatform.nl
European Sustainable Phosphorus Platform: www.phosphorusplatform.eu