T-Shaped Professionals in Europe Today and in 2020 – There is a Job to

do!

Leadership skills for a high-tech economy in Europe

Werner B. Korte

Director empirica, Germany

(http://empirica.com)

ISSIP Service Innovation Presentation Speaker Series

29 June 2016

2

Founded in 1988 35 employees: multi-disciplinary, international team

(10 nations, 15 languages, academic studies in 12 countries)

Operating internationally Focus on European (and beyond) studies and projects Flat hierarchy, autonomous staff Inbetween ‘university’ and ‘consulting organisation’ Strong international network Coordinator of the European Network for Innovation Research (ENIR) with partners all around the world (founded in 2001)

empirica – some facts

3

1. eHealth

2. eCare & Ageing

3. Energy

4. Inclusive Society

5. eSkills & Work

6. Research & Innovation

empirica Business Units

http://empirica.com

ICT WORKFORCE AND E-SKILLS

ICT Workforce in the EU 2001 - 2014

5

7.3 7.4 7.3 7.5

3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7

0.3%1.4% 1.0%

8.5% 5.0%

2.4%3.2% 2.7% 2.6%

4.1% 3.9%2.7% 2.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

milli

on

Broad definit ion (EU28, 2011-2013) Core definit ion (EU27)See next slide for def init ion ISCO-08 25+351, ISCO-88 213+312; 2010-2011 break in series

Based on Eurostat LFS data, some est imat ions

ICT Workforce: Definition using ISCO

Management, architecture &

analysis

Core ICT practitioners –

professional level

Other ICT practitioners –

professional level

Core ICT practitioners –

associate / technician level

Other ICT practitioners –

associate / technician level

1330 ICT service managers 2152 Electronics engineers 2153 Telecommunications engineers 2356 Information technology trainers 2421 Management and organization analysts (50%) 2434 ICT sales professionals 2511 Systems analysts 2512 Software developers 2513 Web and multimedia developers 2514 Applications programmers 2519 Software and applications developers and analysts n.e.c. 2521 Database designers and administrators 2522 Systems administrators 2523 Computer network professionals 2529 Database and network professionals n.e.c. 3114 Electronics engineering technicians 3139 Process control technicians n.e.c. 3155 Air traffic safety electronics technicians 3211 Med. imaging and therap. equip. technicians 3252 Med. records and health inform. technicians 3511 ICT operations technicians 3512 ICT user support technicians 3513 Computer network and systems technicians 3514 Web technicians 3521 Broadcasting and audio-visual technicians 3522 Telecommunications engineering technicians

Structural Changes of the ICT Workforce EU27, 2011-2014

Management, architecture and

analysis

ICT managers Management and organization analysts (partly)

Systems analysts

Core ICT practitioners - professional

level

Software developers Web and multimedia developers

Applications programmers Other software and app developers and analysts

Database designers and administrators Systems administrators

Computer network professionals Other database and network professionals

Other ICT practitioners - professional

level

Electronics engineers Telecommunications engineers

IT trainers ICT sales professionals

Core ICT practitioners -

associate/ technician level

ICT operations technicians ICT user support technicians

Computer network and systems technicians Web technicians

Other ICT practitioners -

associate/ technician level

Electronics engineering technicians Process control technicians not elsewhere classified

Air traffic safety electronics technicians Medical imaging and therapeutic equipment

technicians Medical records and health information technicians

Broadcasting and audio-visual technicians Telecommunications engineering technicians

total

Source: empirica based on Eurostat LFS data

34%

9%

-21%

7%

-23%

3.5%

8

Composition of the European ICT workforce in the EU 2014

empirica, based on Eurostat LFS data 2014.

Management, analysisCore professionals Other professionalsCore practitionersOther practitioners

Forecast Supply and Demand 2015-2020 (latest update: March 2016)

empirica and IDC

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8,052,000

8,232,000

8,423,000

8,614,000

8,795,000

8,944,000

7,681,000

7,766,000 7,873,000

7,982,000

8,095,000 8,203,000

372,000 465,000 550,000

632,000 701,000

741,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

8,000,000

8,500,000

9,000,000

9,500,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jobs

and

dem

and

pote

ntia

l

Demand Potential Total

Jobs Total

522,000 jobs added

jobs potential

E-Skills Policy Indices: Europe 2009 vs. 2013

Source: empirica 2014 See: Gareis, K. Et al.: E-SKILLS FOR JOBS IN EUROPE: MEASURING PROGRESS AND MOVING AHEAD. FINAL REPORT Feb 2014

©

E-LEADERS AND E-LEADERSHIP SKILLS OR THE

T-SHAPED PROFESSIONAL

e-Leader vs. T-Shaped Professional

e-Leadership Index 2015

http://eskills-lead.eu/fileadmin/lead/reports/lead_final_report.pdf

e-Leadership Quantification 2015

http://eskills-lead.eu/fileadmin/lead/reports/lead_final_report.pdf

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Quantification: Old Methodology

e-leadership skills

Definition

LEAD (2014/2015): • CIO survey in three countries on organisation’s

competence in identifying and addressing opportunities for business innovation using ICT

• Application of survey results to the known business structure according to size class of all EU28 countries for the quantification of e-leaders in EU28 (568,000 in 2013) and extrapolation to 2015 using the 4.4% growth trend of highly skilled ICT occupations: 620,000 today and to 2020: 776,000

empirica

www.eskills-vision.eu & www.eskills-lead.eu

Quantification: New: Big Data Approach e-leadership skills

Definition

SCALE (2016): • Quantification of e-leadership demand using online vacancy data: textkernel

product: jobfeed • Coverage: five countries: DE, UK, FR, NL, AT • Use of jobfeed taxonomy to include or exclude specific industry and job categories • Co-occurence analysis using the statistical software and programming language R.

The results were used as the basis for the development of algorithms and key-word chains for experimentation

• Development and application of final algorithm • Model assumptions:

o Active job adverts posted no more than 4 months prior o 50% of searches via job adverts, the remaining searches are carried out

through headhunters, personnel development agencies and staffing industry actors

empirica

Sources Jobs vacancy data: www.jobfeed.com Approach for calculation / estimation:

Workforce Estimation based on an assumed vacancy rate identical to the one of highly-skilled ICT occupations known to be 4.7% (e-leadership skilled workforce in EU28: 350,000 as of November 2015)

empirica

Demand Workforce + Number of e-leadership vacancies applying model assumptions (see above) empirica

Supply Assumption: supply = workforce empirica

Forecast Trend extrapolation. Assumption: growth is correlated with highest skilled ICT jobs growth: 4.4% IDC, empirica

Challenges and Conclusions • There is a global race for talent

– US remains a magnet for IT talent – Asia is increasingly investing in education and skills

• Policy efforts are paying! Supply is improving • Structural changes in workforce are expected to increase • Growing number of vacancies in highest e-skills areas • Increasing mismatch

– Risk of unemployment for people with low or outdated skills – Growing number of potential vacancies (up to 10%) for specialist and advanced

e-skills • Demography requires much stronger reliance on re-training and IT

professional education and attracting foreign talent (e.g. H-1B guest worker visas, refugees …)

• Need for improving highest e-skills level education (qualitatively and quantitatively)

• Need for around 40,000 additional e-leaders per year in Europe. There is a job to do!

• European Commission agenda and policy roadmap: Talent for Europe – Leadership Skills for the High-Tech Economy: Towards an Agenda for 2020 and Beyond

THANK YOU

T-Shaped Professionals in Europe Today and in 2020 – There is a Job to do!