preparing washington state parks for climate change

Preparing Washington State Parks for Climate ChangeA Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Washington State ParksJune 2017

In partnership with The Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission

Prepared by The University of Washington Climate Impacts Group

Acknowledgements.The$authors$would$like$to$express$their$sincere$thanks$to$the$members$of$the$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission$staff$who$participated$in$project$workshops$and$document$review.$This$includes$the$staff$listed$below.$$$PARKS&PROJECT&LEAD:&LISA.LANTZ,.PARKS.DEVELOPMENT.DIVISION.MANAGER.. . . . $Participating$Parks$staff,$listed$in$alphabetical$order:$$

Barbara$Alten$Diana$Dupuis$Andrew$Fielding$Nikki$Fields$Robert$Fimbel$Jason$Goldstein$Derek$Gustafson$Maryellen$Haggard$Michael$Hankinson$Bob$Holland$

Darrel$Hopkins$Dwight$Keegan$Rob$Kirkwood$Linda$Kunze$Lisa$Lantz$Ryan$Layton$Jessica$Logan$Alex$McCarty$Pamela$McConkey$Wayne$McLaughlin$

Alex$McMurry$Matt$Niles$Brian$Patnode$Tony$Rapozo$Matt$Swenson$Shawn$Tobin$Jamie$Van$De$Vanter$Brian$Yearout$

$UNIVERSITY.OF.WASHINGTON.CLIMATE.IMPACTS.GROUP.Lara$Whitely$Binder$Harriet$Morgan$$$$$Dan$Siemann$$The$Climate$Impacts$Group$would$like$to$thank$Ashly$Spevacek$for$her$research$assistance$early$in$the$project.$$$Cover$art$and$report$graphics$developed$by$Victoria$Pinheiro,$Climate$Impacts$Group.$$$FUNDING.Funding$for$this$effort$was$provided$by$the$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission.$

Recommended(citation:$$Whitely$Binder,$L.,$H.$Morgan,$and$D.$Siemann.$2017.$Preparing(Washington(State(Parks(for(Climate(Impacts:(A(Climate(Change(Vulnerability(Assessment(for(Washington(State(Parks.$A$collaboration$of$the$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission$and$the$University$of$Washington$Climate$Impacts$Group.$Seattle,$WA.$https://doi.org/10.7915/CIG6B27QV$

All$images$courtesy$of$Washington$State$Parks$unless$noted$otherwise

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Table.of.Contents..

.1$ Executive$Summary$.........................................................................................................................$1$

2$ Introduction$....................................................................................................................................$5$

3$ Overview$of$State$Parks$and$the$Assessment$Approach$.................................................................$8$

3.1$ Assessment$Approach$...................................................................................................................$12$

4$ Observed$and$Projected$Changes$in$Washington’s$Climate$.........................................................$16$

5$ Key$Findings:$Crossbcutting$Issues$for$Regions$and$Statewide$Programs$.....................................$25$

5.1$ Changes$in$Precipitation$and$Hydrologic$Extremes:$$Enhanced(Seasonal(Precipitation,(More(Intense(Heavy(Rain(Events,(Flooding,(and(Related(Effects$............................................................$26$

5.2$ Changes$in$Snowpack$....................................................................................................................$32$

5.3$ Changes$in$Ecosystem$Health$and$Vegetation$Disturbance:$Wildfire,$Tree$Health,$&$NonbNative$Invasive$Species$.............................................................................................................................$35$

5.4$ Sea$Level$Rise$and$Related$Impacts$..............................................................................................$40$

5.5$ Other$Climate$Change$Impacts$on$State$Parks:$Increasing$Temperatures$....................................$43$

6$ Conclusions$and$Next$Steps$..........................................................................................................$44$

References$..................................................................................................................................................$47$

Appendix$A$|$Workshop$Summaries$Northwest$Region$Southwest$Region$$Eastern$Region$$Statewide$$

Appendix$B$|$Climate$Summaries$$Northwest$Region$Southwest$Region$$Eastern$Region$$Statewide$$

Appendix$C$|$Snow$Water$Equivelant$Maps$$Appendix$D$|$Sea$Level$Rise$Innundation$Maps!$$$$$$

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IMAGE.CITATIONS.

Cover!page!images:!!Deception$Pass.$Image(source:(Júbilo(Haku.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.(

Rockport$Snow.$Image(source:(Ed(Suominen.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.(

Palouse$Falls.$Image(source:(Dave(Hensley.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.(

Deception$Pass.$Image(source:(Steve(Walser.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.(

Lake$Chelan.$Image(source:(Tom(Collins.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.(

!Section!header!images:!Section!1!|!Image(source:(Kidron(Cool.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.!Section!2!|!Image(source:(Photo(Journall.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.!Section!3!|!Image(source:(Dave(Hensley.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.!Section!4!|!Image(source:(Júbilo(Haku.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.!Section!5!|!Image(source:(Washington(State(Parks.(!Section!5.1!|!Image(source:(Sean(Munson.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.!Section!5.2!|!Image(source:(Ed(Suominen.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.!Section!5.3!|!Image(source:(Michael(Coppola.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.!Section!5.4!|!Image(source:(Martin(Bravenboer.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.!Section!5.5!|!Image(source:(Martin(Randy(Clark.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.!Section!6!|!Image(Source:(Photo(Journall.(Used(under(CC(BYMND(2.0.!!!

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1! Executive.Summary..$$The$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission$manages$some$of$Washington’s$most$valued$water$bodies,$diverse$landscapes,$and$historical$properties.$The$State$Parks$system$includes$125$developed$parks,$including$marine$parks,$historical$parks,$heritage$sites,$interpretive$centers,$and$more$than$700$historic$properties.$The$agency$also$manages$significant$areas$of$wetland$and$riparian$habitat,$evergreen$forest,$beaches,$rivers,$lakes$and$approximately$500$miles$of$recreational$trails.$State$Parks$provides$Washingtonians$with$the$opportunity$to$connect$with$the$State’s$diverse$natural$and$cultural$heritage$sites$and$to$engage$in$recreational$and$educational$activities.$The$ability$of$State$Parks$to$preserve$Washington’s$diverse$landscapes$and$continue$to$serve$as$a$conduit$of$outdoor$recreation$and$education$is$vital$to$the$agency’s$mission.$$$$Preparation$for$the$impacts$of$climate$change$has$become$critical$as$the$agency$strives$to$create$and$sustain$a$healthy$parks$system.$Parks$has$already$experienced$many$climate$related$issues$which$will$be$exacerbated$by$climate$change.$For$example:$(

•! Winter$flooding$has$resulted$in$campsite$closures$at$Potlatch,$Belfair,$Twanoh,$Ocean$City,$Twin$Harbors,$and$Grayland$Beach$state$parks.$

•! Low$snowpack$years,$such$as$the$2014b2015$winter,$have$resulted$in$lower$SnobPark$permit$sales$and$snowmobile$registrations.$$

•! Wildfires$have$caused$temporary$park$closures$and$have$damaged$park$infrastructure.$Washington’s$record$breaking$2015$fire$season$resulted$in$a$fivebweek$closure$of$Alta$Lake$State$Park$and$damaged$large$swaths$of$forested$park$land.$

•! In$the$Northwest$Region,$the$beach$and$cabins$at$Cama$Beach$State$Park$frequently$flood$during$annual$King$Tides.!

$Understanding$how$climate$change$may$affect$State$Parks’$properties,$facilities,$operations,$and$statebwide$programs$is$critical$for$ensuring$State$Parks$continued$ability$to$provide$“memorable$recreational$and$educational$experiences.”$Concerns$about$the$effects$of$climate$change$impacts$led$the$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission$to$pass$a$resolution$in$2015$directing$the$agency$to$develop$a$climate$change$preparedness$plan.$$$

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As$an$initial$step$toward$developing$that$plan,$the$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission$contracted$with$the$University$of$Washington$Climate$Impacts$Group$(CIG)$to$conduct$a$climate$change$vulnerability$assessment$for$State$Parks’$properties,$facilities,$operations,$and$statebwide$programs.$Understanding$the$impacts$of$climate$change$on$State$Parks$is$a$necessary$foundation$for$reducing$climate$risks,$protecting$Parks’$investments,$and$ensuring$continued$program$success.$$$This$vulnerability$assessment$combines$published$literature$and$data$with$the$expert$knowledge$of$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission$staff$and$CIG.$To$begin$the$assessment,$CIG$prepared$summaries$of$projected$climate$change$impacts$relevant$to$State$Parks$from$existing$literature$and$data$sets$(available$in$Appendix$B).$CIG$then$convened$four$workshops$with$State$Parks$staff$to$assess$the$implications$of$climate$change$impacts$on$each$of$the$Parks’$three$regions$(Northwest,$Southwest,$and$Eastern)$and$on$statewide$programs$(Planning,$Stewardship,$and$Winter$Recreation).$Workshop$participants$were$asked$to$rate$their$ability$to$adjust$to$projected$climate$impacts$and$to$rate$the$expected$consequences$of$the$impacts$to$their$mission$and$responsibilities.$$The$results$from$these$workshops$indicate$that$the$State$Parks$system$is$expected$to$be$affected$by$climate$change$through$a$variety$of$pathways.$Over$the$course$of$the$three$regional$and$statewide$workshops$four$primary$climate$drivers$that$are$expected$to$affect$State$Parks$emerged:$$

•! Changes(in(precipitation(and(streamflow.(As$temperatures$across$Washington$State$continue$to$rise,$a$greater$fraction$of$winter$precipitation$will$fall$as$rain$rather$than$snow,$resulting$in$higher$winter$streamflows,$and$lower$summer$streamflows.$The$most$frequently$discussed$concerns$during$project$workshops$were$the$potential$for$more$erosion,$landslides,$washouts,$flooding,$heavy$precipitation$events,$and$stormwater$management$issues.$These$impacts$may$block$or$limit$access$to$parks,$damage$infrastructure$or$facilities,$and$may$require$relocation$of$facilities$and$campgrounds$in$lowblying$areas.$$$

$•! Changes(in(snowpack.(The$Washington$Cascades$and$Olympic$Mountains$

contain$the$highest$fraction$of$“warm$snow”,$or$snow$falling$within$a$few$degrees$of$freezing$(32°F),$in$the$continental$United$States$(Mote$et$al.$2008).$As$a$result,$warming$winter$temperatures$associated$with$climate$change$are$projected$to$reduce$snowpack$accumulation$and$shorten$Washington’s$snow$season.$These$changes$are$likely$to$lead$to$a$drop$in$SnobPark$permit$purchases$and$snowmobile$registrations$over$time.$Lower$sales$would$affect$annual$revenue$for$the$Winter$Recreation$Program$and$may$reduce$emergency$budget$reserves,$leaving$the$program$more$vulnerable$to$yearbtobyear$variability$in$snowpack$and$funding.$

$•! Changes(in(ecosystem(health(and(vegetation(disturbance.(Warming$

temperatures,$declining$summer$precipitation,$and$declining$snowpack$will$stress$trees$and$vegetation$in$ways$that$are$expected$to$change$the$prevalence$and$location$of$insect$and$disease$damage,$increase$annual$area$burned,$and$increase$the$area$and$intensity$of$droughts$(Snover$et$al.$2013,$Mauger$et$al.$2015).$Increased$wildfire$activity$is$expected$to$result$in$more$campsite$cancellations,$more$frequent$park$closures,$costly$repairs$to$damaged$

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infrastructure,$reduced$air$quality$due$to$smoke,$and$diversion$of$staff$and$resources.$Additionally,$damage$from$insects$and$disease$would$exacerbate$existing$forest$health$issues$in$many$parks,$potentially$increasing$tree$fall$impacts$on$park$operations.$

$•! Sea(level(rise(and(related(impacts.(Sea$level$is$projected$to$continue$rising$in$

Washington$State$throughout$the$21st$century.$Higher$tides$and$storm$surge,$erosion,$and$permanent$inundation$of$lowblying$areas$are$expected$to$increasingly$disrupt$or$limit$access$to$park$beaches$and$facilities.$Relocating$lowblying$facilities$and$campsites$to$higher$areas$will$only$be$possible$if$suitable$areas$exist$within$a$park.$Additionally,$managing$erosion$issues$is$an$ongoing$and$costly$challenge$for$State$Parks$with$few$permanent$solutions.$!

$The$workshops$with$agency$staff$also$revealed$five$crossbcutting$programmatic$issues$and$concerns$that$are$common$across$climate$change$impacts,$regions,$and$statewide$programs.$These$findings$include:$

•! Siting(park(infrastructure.(Climate$change$impacts$are$likely$to$affect$the$design$and$siting$of$park$facilities.$At$coastal$parks,$sea$level$rise$and$increased$erosion$may$influence$relocation$of$parking$lots,$bathroom$facilities,$and$may$cause$reconsideration$of$stairway,$roads,$and$trail$location.$At$river$parks,$increased$heavy$rain$events$and$larger$floods$are$likely$to$influence$facility$siting$and$design,$stormwater$management,$culverts,$bridges,$and$flood$protection.$$

•! Park(access.(Visitor$access$to$parks$or$specific$park$amenities$(e.g.,$beachfront,$hiking$trails)$could$be$blocked$more$frequently$due$to$climate$change$impacts.$Flooding$from$sea$level$rise$and$storm$surge,$erosion,$landslides,$changes$in$tree$health,$and$wildfire$can$each$prevent$access$to$parks,$campsites,$trails$or$beaches$for$short$or$long$periods.$Changes$in$the$location$or$prevalence$of$disease$or$insects$can$compromise$tree$health,$resulting$in$more$downed$or$atbrisk$trees,$which$can$lead$to$trail,$campground$or$other$facility$closures.$$

•! Water(Features.(Warming$temperatures$will$increase$demand$for$water$features$such$as$rivers,$lakes,$beaches,$and$boating$facilities.$These$features$are$likely$to$experience$more$use$and$may$require$enhanced$management$for$maintenance$and$public$safety.$Additionally,$warming$water$temperatures$will$likely$result$in$increased$algal$blooms,$increased$Vibrio$outbreaks,$and$reduced$water$quality$that$may$result$in$the$closure$of$designated$swimming$areas.$$

•! Park(Visits(and(Revenue.$Climate$change$impacts$could$have$a$range$of$negative$and$positive$effects$on$visitation$and$revenue$and$will$likely$vary$by$park.$If$river$flooding,$erosion$or$tree$health$concerns$lead$to$campground$or$trail$closures,$revenue$from$user$fees$are$likely$to$decline.$However,$warmer$summer$temperatures$may$increase$summer$visitation$at$western$Washington$parks,$particularly$at$popular$parks$and/or$parks$with$water$features.$A$longer$warm$dry$season$could$increase$visitation$in$the$shoulder$seasons$(Spring$and$Fall)$causing$earlier$openings$and$later$closing$for$seasonal$parks.$This$is$likely$to$increase$revenues,$but$will$also$involve$heavier$use$and$increased$costs$for$operations$and$maintenance$of$parking$lots,$trails,$amenities,$and$facilities$such$as$restrooms$and$septic$systems.$$

•! Historic(structures(and(archeological(sites.(State$Parks$manages$a$wide$range$of$historic$structures$and$geologic$and$cultural$sites$that$could$be$compromised$by$climate$change$impacts.$Sea$level$rise,$flooding,$erosion,$wildfire,$and$landslides$may$put$more$historic$facilities$in$harm’s$way,$requiring$Parks$to$move,$protect,$or$abandon$facilities.$$

$In$addition$to$highlighting$climate$change$impacts$that$are$anticipated$to$create$new$challenges$for$State$Parks$and$exacerbate$existing$threats,$this$assessment$revealed$that$many$State$Parks$staff$are$

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already$adjusting$to$climate$changebrelated$impacts$such$as$sea$level$rise$and$changes$in$snowpack,$flood$risk,$wildfire$risk,$tree$health,$and$water$supply$reliability.$However,$responses$are$typically$implemented$by$individual$initiative,$and$staff$noted$that$gaining$approval$for$infrastructure$and$design$approaches$beyond$the$regulatory$and$budgetary$minimum$can$be$difficult.$Climate$change$is$expected$to$exacerbate$the$impacts$and$consequences$that$currently$confront$managers.$Staff$participating$in$this$assessment$indicated$support$for$a$proactive$approach$to$addressing$the$increasing$pace$and$scale$of$climate$change$impacts.$$The$assessment$findings$also$revealed$that$each$region,$and$in$some$cases$each$park,$experiences$climate$change$impacts$uniquely.$For$example,$sea$level$rise$is$a$key$concern$for$many$coastal$parks$since$it$contributes$to$erosion,$loss$of$beach$area,$inundation$of$coastal$structures,$and$damage$to$coastal$infrastructure$such$as$roads,$parking$lots,$trails,$and$stairs.$In$contrast,$eastern$Washington$parks$are$more$likely$to$be$affected$by$tree$health$issues,$reduced$water$access,$wildfire,$and$extreme$heat.$The$effects$of$climate$change$on$a$given$park$will$be$specific$to$the$park$setting,$its$features,$and$the$geographically$specific$expression$of$climate$change$impacts.$While$this$assessment$provides$a$qualitative$indication$of$expected$impacts,$these$results$should$be$validated$at$the$park$level.$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

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2! Introduction.$$The$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission$is$responsible$for$managing$Washington's$“most$treasured$lands,$waters,$and$historic$places”$(WSPRC$Mission$Statement).$However,$changing$climate$conditions$pose$threats$and$present$opportunities$that$State$Parks$must$consider$as$it$cares$for$its$resources$today$and$plans$for$the$park$system$of$the$future$(WSPRC$2016).$$$Climate$change$is$projected$to$have$significant$impacts$on$State$Parks’$infrastructure,$historical$sites,$and$natural$resources.$Projected$changes$include$declining$snowpack,$increasing$winter$flood$risk,$declining$summer$stream$flows,$increased$fire$risk,$sea$level$rise,$and$shifts$in$species$and$habitat$distributions$(Dalton$et$al.$2013,$Snover$et$al.$2013,$Mauger$et$al.$2015).$Understanding$the$impacts$of$climate$change$on$State$Parks$is$a$necessary$foundation$for$reducing$climate$risks,$protecting$Parks’$investments,$and$ensuring$continued$program$success.$$To$help$prepare$for$the$impacts$of$climate$change,$the$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission$contracted$with$the$University$of$Washington$Climate$Impacts$Group$(CIG)$to$conduct$a$rapid$climate$change$vulnerability$assessment$for$State$Parks’$properties,$facilities,$operations,$and$statebwide$programs.1$This$assessment$was$conducted$through$the$lens$of$the$agency’s$three$regions$and$select$statewide$programs,$Winter$Recreation,$Stewardship,$and$Planning.$$$

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$1$Properties$were$defined$as$the$park$as$a$whole,$including$wildlife,$vegetation,$and$other$natural$resource$features.$Infrastructure$was$defined$as$campsites,$buildings,$bathrooms,$hookups,$and$other$electrical$infrastructure,$culverts,$waters$mains,$sea$walls,$stairs$to$beaches,$docks,$and$other$related$physical$infrastructure.$

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$Resolution!$The$Washington$State$Parks$climate$change$vulnerability$assessment$was$motivated$by$a$resolution$passed$by$the$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission$in$November$2015.$The$resolution$states$that$the$impacts$of$climate$change$“will$have$an$impact$on$the$stewardship,$operation,$and$placement$of$park$resources$and$facilities”$and$that$“using$the$best$available$science$on$climate$change$to$plan$for$the$care$of$resources$and$facilities$is$environmentally$responsible$and$financially$prudent.”$The$resolution$directed$that$actions$taken$at$all$levels$of$the$agency$“shall$be$evaluated$in$the$context$of$climate$change”$and$it$directed$staff$to$form$an$interdisciplinary$team$to$develop$a$“climate$change$preparedness$plan$based$on$best$available$science.”$$!Existing!Climate!Risk!Management!!By$their$nature,$many$park$assets$are$sensitive$to$climate.$In$interviews$and$workshops$conducted$for$this$assessment,$Parks$staff$reported$that$they$already$face$a$range$of$climatebrelated$issues,$including$flooding,$seasons$of$low$snowpack,$and$wildfire.$$$Based$on$discussion$with$staff,$climatebrelated$issues$for$facilities$on$the$west$side$of$the$Cascades,$include:$$

•! Coastal$flooding,$erosion,$and$bluff$sloughing$that$have$impacted$coastal$facilities;$$

•! Flooding,$landslides,$and$land$movement$that$have$affected$roads,$trails,$buildings,$and$other$infrastructure$(Figure$1);$$

•! Insects$and$diseases$that$have$affected$forest$health$and$public$safety;$$

•! Wildfire$and$fire$bans$that$affect$park$usage;$and$$•! Impacts$on$water$systems$and$drain$fields$due$

to$extreme$precipitation.$$

With$the$exception$of$sea$level$rise$and$coastal$flooding,$many$of$the$issues$listed$above$are$also$current$

The(mission(of(the(Washington(State(Parks(and(Recreation(Commission(is(to(“care(for(Washington's(most(treasured(lands,(waters,(and(historic(places.(State(parks(connect(all(Washingtonians(to(their(diverse(natural(and(cultural(heritage(and(provide(memorable(recreational(and(educational(experiences(that(enhance(their(lives.”(

Figure!1.$Flooding$at$Dosewallips$State$Park,$February$2015.(Image(source:(Douglas(Hinton,(Washington(State(Parks(

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concerns$for$the$Eastern$region.$Fire$risk,$tree$health$concerns,$and$nonbnative$invasive$species$establishment$are$of$specific$concern$to$parks$east$of$the$Cascades.$$!State$Parks$staff$are$actively$engaged$in$responding$to$and$managing$the$consequences$of$these$climatebrelated$challenges.$For$example,$staff$have$relocated$campsites$in$areas$where$river$flooding$has$been$problematic$(e.g.,$Schafer$State$Park)$and,$where$relevant,$have$installed$facilities$such$as$restrooms,$boardwalks,$and$playgrounds$designed$to$accommodate$flooding$(e.g.,$Lake$Sammamish$State$Park).!In$forested$parks,$crews$regularly$monitor$tree$health$and$remove$diseased$trees$and$nonbnative$invasive$species$at$campgrounds$and$daybuse$areas.$Crews$also$trim$branches$and$vegetation$to$create$defensible$fire$spaces$around$structures.$To$address$concerns$related$to$drought$and$water$supply,$parks$in$eastern$Washington$are$now$incorporating$more$droughtbresistant$shrubs$and$trees$in$landscaping$and$using$less$turf.$In$some$cases,$management$actions$have$explicitly$considered$future$climate.$For$example,$concerns$about$sea$level$rise$were$factored$into$proposed$restoration$activities$at$Saltwater$State$Park.$The$proposal$includes$relocating$a$parking$lot$to$avoid$flood$risk$and$establishing$a$platform$for$mobile$food$trucks$instead$of$a$stationary$building$that$could$be$damaged$by$inundation.$$

These$and$other$similar$efforts$are$important$foundations$for$managing$current$and$future$climate$risks.$Climate$change$is$expected$to$amplify$these$and$other$risks$by$changing$the$frequency,$duration,$and$intensity$of$climatebrelated$stressors$affecting$the$parks.$This$fact,$and$the$fact$that$each$region$and$program$will$face$climate$impacts,$points$to$the$need$for$a$coordinated,$consistent,$and$proactive$approach.$The$need$for$“agencybwide$direction,$a$longbterm$vision,$and$best$practices$for$how$to$address$climate$change$impacts”$was$also$identified$by$staff$during$prebworkshop$interviews.$This$assessment$helps$establish$a$common$understanding$across$the$agency$regarding$projected$changes$in$Washington’s$climate$and$the$expected$impacts$of$these$changes$on$State$Parks’$properties,$facilities,$operations,$and$statebwide$programs.$Understanding$which$regions,$programs,$and$parks$are$most$likely$to$be$vulnerable$to$the$effects$of$climate$change,$and$why,$is$critical$information$necessary$to$addressing$potential$negative$effects$of$and$sustaining$a$healthy$parks$system.$$

About!this!Report!!This$report$synthesizes$key$findings$that$emerged$from$the$workshops$that$served$as$the$foundation$for$the$project.$Following$this$introduction,$the$report$briefly$summarizes$projected$climate$changes$affecting$State$Parks$(Section$4).$The$report$then$describes$the$overarching$climate$change$impact$concerns$common$across$regions$and$programs$as$identified$by$State$Parks$staff$(Section$5).$Details$on$the$climate$change$impacts$relevant$at$the$regional$and$program$level$are$provided$in$the$workshop$summaries$included$in$Appendix$A.$The$report$closes$with$three$additional$appendices:$the$regional$climate$change$projection$summaries$produced$for$each$workshop$(Appendix$B),$maps$of$projected$changes$in$snowpack$for$Washington$State$and$parks$regions$(Appendix$C),$and$sea$level$rise$inundation$maps$for$selected$locations$of$interest$(based$on$discussion$at$the$workshops;$Appendix$D).$

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3! Overview.of.State.Parks.and.the.Assessment.Approach.$$The$Washington$State$Parks$system$includes$125$developed$parks$across$more$than$120,000$acres$of$land$located$throughout$the$state.$Its$facilities$include$19$marine$parks,$11$historical$parks,$35$heritage$sites,$13$interpretive$centers,$more$than$700$historic$properties,$and$approximately$500$miles$of$recreation$trails$(WSPRC$2016).$State$Parks$manages$nearly$20,000$acres$of$wetlands,$more$than$2$million$lineal$feet$of$riparian$habitat,$and$more$than$15,000$acres$of$significant$habitat$supporting$rare$plants,$animals$or$both$(WSPRC$2016).$The$largest$categories$of$natural$resource$holdings$are$evergreen$forest$(59,029$acres),$beaches$(8,376$acres),$and$rivers$and$lakes$(7,877$acres)$(Schundler$et$al.$2015).$Parks$include$Salish$Sea$shorelines,$rain$forests,$the$Palouse,$ocean$beaches,$the$Columbia$River$Gorge,$Puget$trough2$lowland$forests,$dry$forests,$shrub$steppes,$Columbia$Basin$reservoirs$and$coulees,$glacial$lakes$and$snowbcapped$mountains,$channeled$scablands,$and$wild$rivers$(WSPRC$2016).$$State$parks$are$designed$to$provide$recreational$and$educational$experiences$as$well$as$to$protect$cultural$and$historic$sites$and$natural$habitats.$According$to$the$agency’s$strategic$plan,$the$role$of$parks$as$learning$laboratories$for$natural$and$cultural$heritage$is$likely$to$take$on$greater$importance$in$the$coming$years$(WSPRC$2016).$With$increasing$population$growth$and$development,$lands$designated$for$the$protection$of$natural$and$cultural$resources,$such$as$state$parks,$will$become$scarcer.$$As$a$result,$State$Parks$will$become$more$valuable$for$research$on$and$interpretation$of$these$resources.$A$wide$range$of$petroglyphs,$pictographs,$and$other$prehistoric$Native$American$cultural$resources$are$under$the$care$and$protection$of$State$Parks.$$More$than$30$million$people$visit$state$park$facilities$every$year,$generating$an$estimated$$1.4$billion$in$annual$economic$contribution$to$the$state$and$$64$million$in$state$general$fund$tax$receipts$(WSPRC$2016).$State$Parks$capture$8%$of$all$outdoor$recreation$participation$and$approximately$50%$of$Washingtonians$visited$a$state$park$in$2013$or$2014$(WSPRC$2016).$State$Parks$are$the$major$facilitator$

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$2$The$Puget$Trough$ecoregion$is$a$stretch$of$land$between$the$Olympics$and$Willapa$Hills$(to$the$west)$and$the$Cascade$range$(to$the$east).$The$ecoregion$stretches$the$length$of$Washington$State,$and$does$not$exceed$1,000$ft.$in$elevation.$The$region$includes$coastal$lowlands,$coastal$islands,$and$lowbelevation$forested$foothills.$

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of$the$outdoor$recreation$economy$in$Pacific,$Grays$Harbor,$Island,$and$San$Juan$counties$(WSPRC$2016,$Schundler$2015).$$The$State$Parks$budget$experienced$a$major$contraction$during$the$past$decade$that$continues$to$influence$decisions.$In$the$2007b2009$biennium$State$Parks$received$$94.5$million$from$the$State$General$Fund.$By$the$2013b15$biennium,$that$support$declined$to$$8.7$million.$The$reduced$budget$caused$significant$changes$within$the$agency,$including$staff$layoffs,$transfers$of$parks$to$other$entities,$consolidated$management,$and$a$shift$to$a$seasonal$staffing$structure.$It$also$created$a$focus$on$visitor$levels$and$enhancing$the$visitor$experience.$For$example,$the$construction$of$cabins$and$yurts,$rehabilitation$of$historic$buildings$for$modern$uses$such$as$vacation$rentals,$and$the$electrification$of$RV$campsites$were$all$prioritized$to$generate$additional$operating$revenues$for$the$agency$(WSPRC$2012).$In$addition,$the$State$Legislature$established$the$Discover$Pass.$Discover$Passes$are$required$for$vehicles$entering$land$managed$by$Washington$State$Parks,$Department$of$Fish$and$Wildlife,$and$the$Department$of$Natural$Resources.$Passes$can$be$bought$on$an$annual$basis$for$$30,$or$single$visit$passes$can$be$purchased$for$$10.$State$Parks$currently$receives$about$80$percent$of$its$budget$from$earned$revenue$such$as$Discover$Pass$and$user$fees.$The$remaining$20$percent$is$derived$from$the$State$General$Fund$and$a$litter$tax.$$$Washington$State$Parks$is$overseen$by$the$sevenbmember$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission.$The$agency$is$headquartered$in$Olympia$where$systembwide$services$and$programs$are$primarily$based,$including$the$three$programs$assessed$in$this$project$(Winter$Recreation,$Stewardship$and$Planning).$Parks$management$is$divided$into$three$regions:$Northwest,$Southwest,$and$Eastern$(Figure$2).$Regional$offices$are$primarily$responsible$for$managing$park$operations,$including$rangers,$law$enforcement,$volunteers,$visitor$services,$interpretation,$infrastructure,$and$maintenance.$More$on$each$region$and$the$three$statewide$programs$evaluated$in$this$project$is$summarized$below.$$$

$Figure!2.!Washington$State$Parks$regions.$Purple$areas$show$the$locations$of$parks$within$each$region.$Darker$shading$indicates$tribal$reservations$and$lighter$shading$indicates$national$parks$and$national$forests.$Figure(source:(R.(Norheim,(UW(Climate(Impacts(Group.(

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Regions$Northwest(Region.$The$Northwest$Region$includes$67$parks$located$in$the$central$and$north$Puget$Sound$region,$including$marine$parks$in$the$San$Juan$Islands.$The$Northwest$Region$includes$Deception$Pass$State$Park,$the$agency’s$sixth$largest$park$by$area$and$its$most$visited$park$(almost$2.7$million$visits$in$2015).3$Other$popular$parks$in$the$region$include$Lake$Sammamish$(more$than$1.3$million$annual$visits),$Moran$State$Park$(almost$800,000$annual$visits),$Birch$Bay$State$Park$(almost$800,000$annual$visits),$and$Saint$Edward$State$Park$(approximately$620,000$annual$visits)3.$The$Northwest$Region$also$includes$many$notable$historical$structures$and$cultural$sites,$including$Fort$Casey$State$Park,$Peace$Arch$State$Park,$Cama$Beach$State$Park,$and$Kukutali$Preserve,$the$nation’s$first$park$to$be$cobowned$and$cobmanaged$by$a$federally$recognized$tribe$and$a$state$government$(in$this$case,$the$Swinomish$Indian$Tribal$Community$and$Washington$State$Parks).4$$Southwest(Region.$The$Southwest$Region$includes$more$than$83$state$parks$located$predominantly$in$southwest$Washington$and$western$Puget$Sound.$The$Southwest$Region$includes$Cape$Disappointment$State$Park,$home$to$the$oldest$operating$lighthouse$in$the$Pacific$Northwest$and$the$terminus$of$Lewis$and$Clark’s$1803$expedition$to$the$West.5$The$region$also$includes$the$Seashore$Conservation$Area,$which$was$created$in$1967$to$preserve$public$access$to$undeveloped$Pacific$Coast$shoreline.$The$area$protects$publiclybowned$beaches$up$to$the$ordinary$high$tide$line$from$the$south$boundary$of$the$Quinault$Indian$Nation$Reservation$on$the$Olympic$Peninsula$to$the$mouth$of$the$Columbia$River.6$$(Eastern(Region.(The$Eastern$Region$of$Washington$State$Parks$includes$56$parks7$located$in$central$and$eastern$Washington.$The$Eastern$Region$includes$Mount$Spokane$State$Park,$the$agency’s$largest$park$by$area$(13,054$acres)$and$a$popular$location$for$skiing,$snowmobiling,$and$summer$recreation$(Figure$3).$Annual$average$attendance$at$Mt.$Spokane$State$Park$is$around$550,000$visits$(WSPRC$2010).$Other$popular$parks$in$the$region$include$Riverside$State$Park$(Spokane;$almost$1.3$million$visits$each$year)$

and$Sun$LakesbDry$Falls$State$Park$(approximately$1$million$visits$annually)$(Schundler$et$al.$2015,$WSPRC$2003).$!Statewide!Programs!Winter(Recreation(Program.(The$Winter$Recreation$Program$has$four$employees$who$manage$winter$recreation$activities$at$more$than$120$SnobParks$in$the$Washington$Cascades$and$eastern$Washington.$SnobParks$are$divided$into$one$of$three$types:$NonbMotorized$SnobParks$(approximately$40$parks8),$Snow$Play$SnobParks$(5$parks9),$and$Snowmobile$SnobParks$(approximately$80$parks10;$Figure$3).$Approximately$3,000$

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$3$Personal$correspondence,$S.$Heller,$June$14,$2017.$$4$Swinomish$Indian$Tribal$Community,$http://www.swinomishbnsn.gov/resources/environmentalbprotection/kukutalibpreserve.aspx$$5$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission,$http://parks.state.wa.us/486/CapebDisappointment$$6$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission,$http://parks.state.wa.us/DocumentCenter/Home/View/1524$$7$Park$counts$for$the$three$Park$regions$based$on$GIS$data.$$8$http://parks.state.wa.us/452/NonbMotorizedbSnobParks$$9$http://parks.state.wa.us/647/SnowbPlaybSnobParks$$10$http://parks.state.wa.us/304/SnowmobilebSnobParks$$

Figure!3.$Snowmobiling$at$Mt.$Spokane$State$Park.$$

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miles$of$trail$are$dedicated$to$snowmobiling;$another$300$miles$of$trail$is$reserved$for$nonbmotorized$activities,$such$as$downhill$and$crossbcountry$skiing,$snowshoeing,$skijoring$(Figure$4),11$dogbsledding,$“fat$tire”$biking,$tubing,$and$general$snow$play$(WSPRC$2016).$Ninetybfive$percent$of$the$SnobPark$system$trails$are$located$on$U.S.$Forest$Service$land.$$$The$Winter$Recreation$Program$is$selfbsupported$via$sales$of$winter$recreation$permits$and$snowmobile$registrations.$Operational$responsibilities$at$SnobParks$include$plowing$parking$lots,$trail$grooming,$and$providing$and$maintaining$sanitation$facilities.$Parks$provides$these$services$from$December$1bMarch$31,$depending$on$funds$and$weather.$If$funds$are$insufficient,$Parks$may$end$services$early$at$some$locations.$SnobPark$parking$permits$end$April$30.$$$Planning.(The$Planning$Program$has$five$employees,$and$is$responsible$for$longbterm$facility$planning$(typically$a$20b30byear$planning$horizon),$land$acquisition$and$classification$(e.g.,$determining$zones$for$specific$uses$within$parks),$and$partnership$building.$Planning$also$conducts$public$outreach$on$larger$public$policy$issues$affecting$parks$and$manages$interpretive$programs,$volunteer$programs,$and$resource$tracking$(e.g.,$energy$use).$!$Stewardship.(The$Stewardship$Program$has$16$fullbtime$employees,$and$is$responsible$for$protecting$and$managing$natural$and$cultural$heritage$resources$located$in$Washington$State$parks.$These$include:$$$

•! More$than$700$historic$properties,$such$as$historic$forts,$lighthouses,$an$historic$court$house,$and$various$structures$built$by$the$Civilian$Conservation$Corps$(Figure$5);$$

•! Natural$resources$of$conservation$significance,$including$lowland$old$growth$forest,$habitat$used$by$threatened$and$endangered$species,$and$areas$with$unique$plant$associations$found$only$in$state$parks;$$

•! Native$ecosystem$resilience,$health,$and$function;$and$

•! Undeveloped$areas$of$the$park$system$(90%$of$the$land$base),$which$serve$as$the$backdrop$for$most$recreational$activities$and$are$the$top$reason$that$people$visit$state$parks.$$

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$11$Skijoring$is$a$winter$recreation$activity$that$involves$pulling$a$skier$by$horse,$dog(s),$or$motor$vehicle$(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skijoring)$$

Figure!5.$One$of$the$kitchen$shelters$built$by$the$Civilian$Conservation$Corps$(CCC)$in$the$1930s.$Millersylvania$State$Park.(

Figure!4.!Skijoring$in$a$SnobPark.$Photo$credit:(Washington(State(Parks,(via(Twitter(post(on(November(12,(2015.$

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The$Stewardship$Program$is$also$responsible$for$managing$potential$risks$associated$with$wildlife,$tree$health,$pests$and$disease,$exotic$species$control,$wildfire,$and$providing$statewide$coordination$of$environmental$review$and$compliance.$$.Assessment.Approach.The$Washington$State$Parks$climate$change$vulnerability$assessment$was$designed$to$provide$an$initial$qualitative$assessment$of$how$climate$change$may$affect$park$properties,$infrastructure,$and$operations.$Conducted$between$April$and$June$2017,$the$assessment$combines$available$information$from$published$literature,$data,$tools,$and$methodologies$with$the$expert$knowledge$of$Washington$State$Parks$and$Recreation$Commission$staff$and$the$University$of$Washington$Climate$Impacts$Group.$The$assessment$focused$on$projected$changes$through$2100.$$To$begin$the$project,$CIG$developed$brief$summaries$of$projected$climate$change$impacts$relevant$to$State$Parks$by$drawing$on$existing$literature$and$data$sets$(see$Appendix$B).$This$information$was$prepared$for$use$in$vulnerability$assessment$workshops$with$Parks$staff.$CIG$also$conducted$a$total$of$10$prebworkshop$phone$interviews$with$representatives$from$each$Statewide$program$and$region$to$develop$a$better$understanding$of$the$current$management$priorities,$how$extreme$events$currently$affect$Parks,$and$concerns$about$climate$change$impacts.$The$interviews$included$the$following$questions:$$

1.! What$are$the$current$nearbterm$(1b2$year)$and$longer$term$priorities$for$your$work?$$2.! How$do$current$extreme$events$or$climatebrelated$stressors$affect$what$you$do$or$manage$for?$3.! How$has$your$program$or$region$considered$or$addressed$climate$change$thus$far?$4.! What$are$the$issues$that$come$to$mind$when$you$think$about$climate$change$impacts$on$your$

program$or$region?$5.! What$would$you$like$to$get$out$of$this$vulnerability$assessment?$$

$The$second$phase$of$the$project$involved$vulnerability$assessment$workshops$(Figure$6).$CIG$staff$convened$four$workshops$with$State$Parks$staff$to$evaluate$how$climate$change$is$expected$to$affect$State$Parks.$The$first$workshop$focused$on$three$statewide$programs:$Winter$Recreation,$Planning,$and$Stewardship$(10$participants).$The$remaining$three$workshops$focused$separately$on$each$of$the$agency’s$three$regions:$the$Northwest$(six$participants),$Southwest$(seven$participants),$and$Eastern$(eight$participants)$regions.$$Workshop$discussions$were$structured$to$identify$and$evaluate$climatebrelated$risks$and$implications$for$State$Parks$properties,$infrastructure,$and$operations.$To$help$differentiate$the$potential$importance$of$different$impacts,$workshop$participants$were$asked$to$rate$the$agency’s$ability$to$adjust$to$or$accommodate$climate$change$impacts$based$on$normal$resources$and$authorities.$

Figure!6.!State$Parks$staff$participating$in$the$Eastern$Region$workshop.$Figure(source:(UW(Climate(Impacts(Group.(

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They$were$then$asked$to$rate$the$consequence$of$each$impact,$taking$into$account$the$ability$to$adjust$(Table$1).$Each$workshop$identified$vulnerabilities$common$to$State$Parks$within$the$region$or$a$program$while$also$providing$an$opportunity$to$discuss$issues$specific$to$individual$properties.$$

$As$part$of$the$workshop$approach,$the$project$team$and$staff$viewed$sea$level$rise$scenarios$for$various$locations$of$interest$identified$by$staff$during$the$workshop.$Because$of$the$large$number$of$coastal$properties$in$the$park$system$and$the$short$amount$of$time$available$to$complete$the$project,$the$(project$team$initially$used$Climate$Central’s$Surging$Seas12$viewer$to$explore$the$impact$of$different$sea$level$rise$scenarios$during$the$workshops.$The$project$team$subsequently$developed$a$set$of$sea$level$rise$maps$integrating$GIS$information$on$facilities,$roads,$and$other$park$features$for$the$subset$of$parks$that$staff$chose$to$view$during$the$workshop$(Appendix$D;$Figure$7).$The$maps$show$areas$potentially$affected$by$+1$foot$and$+2$feet$of$sea$level$rise$relative$to$the$ordinary$high$tide$(the$Mean$High$High$Water$mark,$or$MHHW;$Figure!7).$A$storm$surge$value$of$+3$feet$is$also$mapped.$This$storm$surge$level$is$the$approximate$value$of$the$observed$1%$annual$probability$water$level$(i.e.,$the$100byear$storm$tide)$for$the$Puget$Sound$region$and$outer$Washington$coast,$excluding$Toke$Point,$and$relative$to$MHHW$(Zervas$2005;$see$also,$NOAA$Extreme$Water$Levels13).$Surge$at$individual$locations$will$vary$slightly$from$this$value;$the$value$for$Toke$Point$is$considerably$higher:$+5.7$feet$(Zervas$2005).$Research$

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$12$Available$at:$http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/$$13$Available$at:$https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/est/$

! Table!1.(Ability$to$adjust$and$consequence$rating$keys$used$by$staff$during$project$workshops$for$rating$climate$change$impacts.!!

Ability!to

!Adjust!

Easy!to$adjust$to$or$accommodate$(“a(blip”)(

Moderately!difficult!to$adjust$to$or$accommodate$(“this(would(be(a(hassle,(but(we(could(deal(with(it”)($

Hard!to$adjust$to$or$accommodate$(“this(would(be(a(big(problem”)$

Minor$adjustment$would$be$required$to$maintain$service/meet$overall$program$objectives,$and$this$additional$action$can$be$easily$accommodated.$$

Additional$action$or$adjustment$would$be$required$to$maintain$service/meet$overall$program$objectives,$but$the$adjustment$can$be$made$if$needed.$$

Substantial$and/or$costly$action$would$be$required$to$adjust$to$this$impact.$This$impact$would$be$very$difficult$to$accommodate.$

$

Conseq

uence!

Low!consequence!(“a(blip”)(

Moderate!Consequence!(“this(would(affect(us(in(a(meaningful(way,(but(we(could(deal(with(it”)$

High!Consequence!(“this(would(be(a(major(issue(for(our(program”)$

The$climate$change$impact$would$have$a$minor$impact$on$what$we$do,$how$we$do$it,$and/or$what’s$required$to$meet$our$program$responsibilities.$$

The$climate$change$impact$would$have$a$moderate$impact$on$what$we$do,$how$we$do$it,$and/or$what’s$required$to$meet$our$program$responsibilities.$The$objectives/services$could$still$be$largely$met,$but$notable$tradeoffs$will$be$required$and/or$some$losses$in$service$may$be$incurred.$

The$climate$change$impact$would$have$a$significant$impact$on$what$we$do,$how$we$do$it,$and/or$what’s$required$to$meet$our$program$responsibilities.$$

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does$not$project$any$change$in$maximum$storm$surge$at$this$time,$however$higher$sea$level$will$increase$the$potential$for$damage$by$storm$surge$by$allowing$surge$to$reach$further$inland.$$The$+1$and$+2$foot$sea$level$rise$values$shown$on$the$maps$are$proximate$to$or$within$the$current$range$of$sea$level$rise$projected$for$Washington$by$2050$(mean$of$+6$in.$with$a$range$of$b1$to$+19$in.)$and$2100$(mean$of$+24$in.$with$a$range$of$+4$to$+56$in.)$(NRC$2012).$A$third$representation$of$potential$sea$level$rise$risk$is$found$by$combining$the$value$of$the$mean$increase$in$sea$level$rise$for$2100$(+2$feet)$with$the$+3$feet$storm$surge$level.$This$combined$value$(+5$feet,$or$+60$inches)$illustrates$areas$that$could$be$permanently$inundated$by$the$current$upper$estimate$for$sea$level$rise$in$2100$(+56$inches).$$$It$is$important$to$remember$that$while$the$maps$are$useful$for$showing$areas$that$are$likely$to$be$permanently$inundated$or$affected$by$higher$surge,$the$maps$are$not$able$to$capture$the$dynamic$effects$of$coastal$erosion$and$bluff$sloughing.$These$processes$can$influence$how$sea$level$rise$affects$a$park$by$changing$the$shape$of$a$coastline$over$time$and$altering$sediment$movement$in$the$nearshore.$This$also$means$that$the$size$of$the$projected$inundation/storm$surge$zones$should$not$be$the$sole$determinant$for$interpreting$how$sea$level$rise$affects$parks.$This$is$particularly$true$in$the$Puget$Sound$region,$where$many$beaches$are$narrow$and$backed$by$coastal$bluffs.$$.$

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Figure'7.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Dosewallips!State!Park."The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!1!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean:!+6!inches,!range:!G1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean:!+24!inches,!range:!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012)."2!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped."The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!3!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time,!or!the!combined!impacts!of!more!river!flooding!with!higher!sea!level.!!Figure"source:"R."Norheim,"UW"4!Climate"Impacts"Group.""5!

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!!!!!!!!!!!

4! Observed!and!Projected!Changes!in!Washington’s!Climate!!!Human!activities!have!caused!a!considerable!increase!in!the!concentration!of!greenhouse!gases!in!the!atmosphere,!relative!to!pre;industrial!times,!and!have!been!the!primary!cause!of!global!warming!since!1950!(Bindhoff!et!al.!2013).!Without!significant!reductions!in!greenhouse!gas!emissions,!climate!change!will!accelerate,!leading!to!significant!challenges!at!both!the!global!and!local!level.!!Observed(Changes(in(Washington(&(Pacific(Northwest(Climate(Warming(temperatures.!Average!annual!temperature!in!Washington!has!warmed!nearly!1.8°F!since!1895,!and!the!observed!rate!of!warming!since!1950!(~+0.3°F!/decade)!has!been!about!double!the!rate!of!warming!since!1895!(~+0.15°F!/decade).!Statistically!significant!warming!has!been!observed!during!all!seasons.14, !No(discernable(trend(in(average(or(seasonal(precipitation."Long;term!trends!in!observed!annual!precipitation!in!Washington!and!the!Pacific!Northwest!are!not!statistically!significant,!with!the!exception!of!spring!precipitation!(Snover!et!al.!2013,!Abatzoglou!et!al.!2014).!Over!the!past!century!there!has!been!a!statistically!significant!long;term!increase!in!spring!precipitation!(March;May)!in!the!Pacific!Northwest!(Abatzoglou!et!al.!2014)!and!in!the!Puget!Sound!lowlands!(Mauger!et!al.!2015).!!!Changes(in(heavy(precipitation."There!are!no!consistent,!statistically!significant!trends!in!heavy!precipitation!(Snover!et!al.!2013).!Some!individual!station!records!may!exhibit!increasing!trends!for!a!specific!measure!of!precipitation!(e.g.,!the!amount!of!rain!falling!in!48!hours;!Rosenberg!et!al.!2010)!and!over!specific!time!periods!(e.g.,!comparing!recent!decades!to!mid!20th!century;!Snover!et!al.!2013).!However,!no!coherent!changes!in!heavy!rainfall!across!the!region!have!been!detected.!!!Changes(in(streamflow.(Changes"in"annual"streamflow."Observed!declines!in!annual!streamflow!have!been!documented!in!some!locations,!however,!these!trends!are!small!in!comparison!to!year;to;year!variability.!One!study!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!14!Data!source:!Monthly!and!Annual!Temperatures!for!Climate!Divisions!and!the!State,!Climate!at!a!Glance,!NOAA!!(http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/).!Significance!was!tested!with!a!95%!confidence!threshold.!!

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evaluating!43!streamflow!gauges!throughout!the!Pacific!Northwest!observed!declines!in!annual!streamflow!volume!ranging!between!0%!change!to!–20%!at!individual!sites!(Luce!and!Holden!2009).!In!the!Puget!Sound!region,!some!rivers!have!shown!statistically!significant!declines!in!annual!streamflow!during!dry!years!(Luce!and!Holden!2009,!Luce!et!al.!2013,!Dettinger!2014).!In!other!words,!dry!years!have!become!drier!in!the!Puget!Sound!region.!!!Changes"in"peak"streamflow.!Mass!et!al.!(2011)’s!assessment!of!extreme!precipitation!for!the!outer!coast!of!Washington!and!Oregon!found!an!increase!in!peak!discharges!for!the!top!60!average!daily!peak!flow!events!between!1950!and!2009!for!unregulated!rivers!north!of!45°N!(including!the!Dungeness,!Quinault,!and!Satsop!Rivers!in!Washington),!although!decadal!trends!varied.!Trends!in!the!top!20!peak!flow!events!for!those!rivers!are!dominated!by!the!large!events!in!the!1990s;!if!that!decade!is!removed,!there!is!little!trend!in!the!top!20!daily!discharge!events.!!!Streamflow"shifted"earlier"in"some"locations."The!timing!of!peak!streamflow!in!the!Pacific!Northwest!and!in!western!Washington!has!also!shifted!earlier!in!some!locations,!largely!due!to!declining!snowpack!and!earlier!spring!snowmelt.!These!earlier!shifts!ranged!between!no!shift!to!20!days!earlier!between!1948!and!2002!(Stewart!et!al.!2005).!!

Box!1.!Observed!Changes:!Fire!Risk,!Tree!Health!&!NonFNative!Invasive!Species!

•! Fire."Washington’s!forests!have!experienced!a!strong!and!persistent!increase!in!wildfire!activity!over!the!past!several!decades,!due!in!part!to!a!century!of!active!fire!suppression!(Abatzoglou!and!Williams!2016).!In!the!Pacific!Northwest,!the!length!of!the!fire!season!has!extended!during!each!of!the!past!four!decades,!lengthening!from!23!days!between!1973;1982!to!43!days!between!1983;1992,!84!days!between!1993;2002,!and!116!days!between!2003;2012!(Westerling!2016).!In!addition!to!a!longer!fire!season,!the!Pacific!Northwest!region!has!also!experienced!an!increase!in!mean!fire!burn!time15!from!seven!days!in!the!1970s!to!13!days!in!the!1980s,!41!days!in!the!1990s,!and!54!days!in!the!2000s!(Westerling!2016).!!

•! Insects(&(Disease.!Over!the!past!several!decades,!insect!and!disease!damage!to!Washington’s!forests!have!increased!drastically,!doubling!from!600,000!acres!per!year!during!the!1980s!to!exceeding!1.2!million!acres!in!2000s!(Dozic!2015).!While!forest!damage!in!recent!years!has!been!more!modest,!with!approximately!600,000!acres!damaged!in!2013!and!~550,000!damaged!acres!in!2014,!widespread!damage!to!Washington’s!forests!will!continue!to!occur!from!insect,!disease,!and!fire!(Argyropoulos!2017).16!

•! Non<Native(Invasive(Species.!Non;native,!invasive!plants,!animals,!fungi,!and!bacteria!(terrestrial!and!aquatic),!are!both!challenging!to!locate!and!remove!in!many!areas!of!the!park!system.!They!displace!or!destroy!native!plant!communities,!wildlife!habitats,!and!in!some!instances,!are!toxic!to!people!and!livestock!(e.g.,!poison!hemlock,!tansy!ragwort).!Many!have!their!origins!in!Mediterranean!climates;!conditions!that!are!becoming!more!common!in!areas!of!WA!as!the!climate!changes.!Non;native!invasive!species!have!been!introduced!and!spread!in!Washington!State!following!escape!from!personal!gardens,!agricultural!operations,!or!after!being!transported!to!the!region!via!human!travel!and/or!trade.!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!15!Rounded!to!the!nearest!whole!day,!excluding!years!with!no!large!fires.!!16!Note:!these!estimates!are!based!on!data!from!the!annual!insect!and!disease!aerial!survey,!which!are!likely!an!underestimate!of!actual!on;the;ground!damage.!!

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Snowpack.!Snowpack!in!the!Washington!and!Oregon!Cascades!has!declined!approximately!25%!since!the!mid;20th!17!century!through!2007!due!to!both!natural!variability!and!long;term!regional!warming!trends!(Mote!et!al.!2008,!Stoelinga!et!al.!2010).!Snow!loss!at!lower!elevations!has!been!greater!than!the!loss!at!higher!elevations,!a!finding!that!is!consistent!with!long;term!warming.!Over!shorter!time!periods,!natural!variability!in!precipitation!can!dominate!trends.!For!example,!in!recent!decades!there!has!been!an!observed!(though!not!statistically!significant)!increase!in!spring!snow!accumulation!(Stoelinga!et!al.!2010).!!Sea(Level(Rise."Sea!level!is!rising!in!most!coastal!areas!of!Washington!State,!with!the!amount!of!sea!level!rise!varying!by!location!due!largely!to!differences!vertical!land!movement!(i.e.,!subsidence!and!uplift)!caused!by!plate!tectonics!(Table!2).!Between!1900;2008!sea!level!rose!by!+8.6!inches!(0.8!in./decade)!at!the!Seattle!tide!gauge,!which!is!one!of!the!longest!running!tide!gauges!in!Puget!Sound.!The!notable!exception!to!local!rising!sea!level!trends!is!Neah!Bay,!where!the!rate!of!uplift!in!the!northwest!Olympic!Peninsula!currently!exceeds!the!rate!of!global!sea!level!rise.!!!Projected(Changes(in(Regional(Climate!Washington!climate!is!expected!to!change!more!rapidly!in!the!coming!decades!than!compared!to!the!20th!century.!These!changes,!which!include!increasing!temperature,!more!extreme!precipitation,!and!rising!sea!level,!will!affect!Washington!State!Parks’!properties,!facilities,!operations,!and!state;wide!programs.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!17!Mote!et!al.!2008!analyzed!the!linear!trend!in!observed!snowpack!in!the!Washington!Cascades!for!different!start!years!through!2003,!beginning!in!1935!and!ending!in!1975!(e.g.,!1935;2003,!1936;2003…1975;2003;!see!Table!3!in!Mote!et!al.!2008).!Stoelinga!et!al.!2010!also!looked!at!different!time!periods,!e.g.,!1930;2007,!1950;1997,!and!1976;2007.!Both!studies!found!statistically!significant!declines!in!precipitation!for!the!Washington!Cascades!for!trends!beginning!in!mid;century,!i.e.,!trends!for!time!series!starting!between!1945!and!1954!and!ending!in!2003!(Mote!et!al.!2008)!and!the!trend!for!1950;1997!(Stoelinga!et!al.!2010).!!

Table(2.!Observed!trends!in!sea!level!for!Washington!State!tide!gauges.!Trends!are!reported!in!feet/century!to!facilitate!comparison!of!trends!between!stations!with!different!periods!of!record.!Source:"NOAA!

Tide(Gauge((period!of!record)!

Trend!(ft/century)!

Seattle!(1899;2016)!

+!0.67!ft/century!

Friday(Harbor((1934;2016)!

+!0.38!ft/century!

Port(Townsend((1972;2016)!

+!0.62!ft/century!

Cherry(Point((1973;2016)!

+!0.11!ft/century!

Neah(Bay((1934;2016)!

;!0.56!ft/century!

Toke(Point((1973;2016)!

+!0.14!ft/century!

MODELING(FUTURE(CLIMATE(Projecting!changes!in!21st!century!climate!requires!the!use!of!global!climate!models!and!scenarios!of!future!greenhouse!gas!emissions,!which!incorporate!assumptions!about!future!changes!in!global!population,!technological!advances,!and!other!factors!that!influence!the!amount!of!carbon!dioxide!and!other!greenhouse!gases!emitted!into!the!atmosphere!as!a!result!of!human!activities.!Differences!in!the!greenhouse!gas!scenarios,!combined!with!differences!in!how!individual!models!respond!to!those!scenarios,!result!in!a!range!of!possible!futures!(referred!to!as!climate!scenarios)!that!can!be!used!to!evaluate!climate!impacts.!Two!greenhouse!gas!scenarios!frequently!modeled!to!bracket!a!range!of!potential!future!conditions!are!a!high!“business!as!usual”!greenhouse!gas!scenario!(known!as!RCP!8.5)!and!a!low!greenhouse!gas!scenario!(RCP!4.5).!While!annual!greenhouse!gas!emissions!will!vary!from!year!to!year,!current!greenhouse!gas!emissions!are!considered!to!be!generally!tracking!RCP!8.5.!!

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Air(temperature."All!climate!models!project!increases!in!annual!and!seasonal!temperatures!for!Washington!State,!with!the!amount!of!warming!dependent!on!how!quickly!greenhouse!gas!emissions!rise!(Table!3;!Figure!8).!While!natural!variability!will!remain!an!important!feature!of!the!state’s!climate,!Washington!is!likely!to!regularly!experience!average!annual!air!temperatures!by!mid;century!that!exceed!the!range!observed!during!the!20th!century.""(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

Increases(in(extreme(heat."More!extreme!heat!is!also!expected!for!Washington!State,!although!the!frequency!and!intensity!of!extreme!heat!events!may!be!slightly!moderated!along!the!coast!and!in!areas!adjacent!to!Puget!Sound.!Data!analysis!by!the!Climate!Impacts!Group!(data!source:!Mote!et!al.!2015)!

Table(3.(Projected!changes!in!average!annual!temperature!and!summer!temperature!in!Washington!State!for!the!2050s!and!2080s!(Data"source:"Mote"et"al."2015)(

! ( 2050s!(2040D2069,"relative"to"1970D1999)!

2080s!(2040D2069,"relative"to"1970D1999)!

Change(in…( Greenhouse(gas(scenario*(

Mean( Range( Mean( Range(

Average!annual!air!temperature!

Low!(RCP!4.5)! +4.4°F!! 3.0°F!−!5.6°F! +5.6°F!! 4.2°F!−!7.3°F!

High!(RCP!8.5)! +5.7°F! 4.5°F!−!7.3°F! +9.4°F! 7.6°F!−!11.7°F!

Summer!(Jun;Aug)!air!temperature!!

Low!(RCP!4.5)! +5.3°F!" 3.6°F!−!7.8°F! +6.6°F!! 4.7°F!−!9.5°F!!

High!(RCP!8.5)! +7.1°F! 5.1°F!−!10.1°F! +11.7°F!! 9.3°F!−!15.9°F!!

Figure(8.!All(scenarios(project(warming(in(Washington(State(for(the(21st(century.!These!graphs!show!average!yearly!air!temperature!(left)!and!precipitation!(right)!for!Washington!State,!relative!to!the!average!for!1970;1999.!The!black!line!shows!the!average!simulated!air!temperature!or!precipitation!for!1950–2005,!based!on!the!individual!model!results!indicated!by!the!thin!grey!lines.!The!thick!colored!lines!show!the!average!among!model!projections!for!two!emissions!scenarios!(low:!RCP!4.5,!and!high:!RCP!8.5),!while!the!thin!colored!lines!show!individual!model!projections!for!each!scenario.!Figure!source:!Climate!Impacts!Group)."

(

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found!that!Washington!State!is!projected!to!experience!an!increase!in!the!number!of!days!above!various!warm!thresholds!(90°F!and!100°F)!relative!to!what!has!been!observed!historically.!Findings!are!reported!for!the!each!of!the!State!Park!regions!in!the!regional!climate!summaries,!located!in!Appendix!B.!!!Changes(in(annual(&(seasonal(precipitation.!Most!models!project!wetter!fall,!winter,!and!spring!seasons!(+6.2%!to!+7.9%!on!average!for!the!2050s,!relative!to!1970;1999)!for!a!low!and!high!greenhouse!gas!scenario,!respectively.!However,!some!individual!models!project!drier!conditions!during!some!of!these!seasons.!Models!consistently!project!drier!summers!(−16.8%!and!−17.8%!on!average,!by!the!2050s!for!a!low!and!high!emissions!scenario).!The!net!result!of!these!seasonal!changes!is!a!relatively!small!increase!in!annual!average!precipitation!(+4!to!+5%!on!average,!for!the!2050s;!Figure!8).!Given!the!large!differences!in!annual!precipitation!between!wet!and!dry!years!in!our!Pacific!Northwest!climate,!it!may!be!difficult!to!detect!these!changes!of!only!a!few!percent.!!!Increases(in(heavy(precipitation.!Extreme!precipitation!is!expected!to!increase.!The!heaviest!(top!1%)!24;hour!rain!events!–!so;called!“Atmospheric!River”!events!–!in!western!Washington!and!Oregon!are!expected!to!be!+22%!more!intense,!on!average,!by!the!2080s!for!a!high!warming!scenario!(Mauger!et!al.!2015).!Today’s!heaviest!24;hour!rain!events!is!also!projected!to!become!more!frequent,!occurring!seven!days!per!year!by!the!2080s,!on!average,!compared!to!two!days!per!year!historically!(1970;1999).!Unlike!other!projected!changes!in!precipitation,!the!considerable!changes!in!heavy!precipitation!events!exceed!the!range!of!natural!variability!in!precipitation!shortly!after!mid;century.!In!contrast!to!western!Washington!where!extreme!precipitation!events!are!driven!by!Atmospheric!Rivers,!heavy!rainfall!events!east!of!the!Cascades!are!typically!induced!by!convective!systems.!Downscaled!climate!models!are!currently!too!coarse!to!capture!these!small;scale!convective!systems.!Therefore,!projected!changes!in!extreme!precipitation!for!eastern!Washington!are!unavailable!at!this!time.!!!Changes(in(seasonal(streamflow.(Winter!streamflow!(Oct;Mar)!in!Washington!is!projected!to!increase!between!+25%!and!+34%,!on!average,!by!the!2080s!(relative!to!1970;1999)18!(Snover!et!al.!2013).!Conversely,!summer!streamflow!(Apr;Sep)!is!projected!to!decline!between!–34%!to!–44%,!on!average,!for!the!same!period.!These!changes!will!be!most!pronounced!in!mid;elevation!rain/snow!mix!watersheds,!where!average!winter!temperatures!are!close!to!freezing!and!therefore!most!sensitive!to!increasing!winter!temperatures!(Klos!et!al.!2014,!Elsner!et!al.!2010).!More!information!regarding!these!projected!changes!can!be!found!in!Appendix!B.!!!Changes(in(streamflow(timing."The!timing!of!spring!peak!runoff!is!also!expected!to!shift!earlier!as!temperatures!warm.!By!the!2080s,!spring!peak!streamflow!is!projected!to!occur!two!to!six!weeks!earlier,!on!average,!in!12!major!Puget!Sound!watersheds,!relative!to!historic!conditions!(1970;1999)!(Mauger!et!al.!2015).19!!!!Increasing(flood(risk."The!shift!to!more!winter!rain!and!less!snow!also!increases!the!risk!of!winter!flooding!in!many!watersheds.!More!intense!heavy!precipitation!events!will!amplify!this!risk,!particularly!west!of!the!Cascades.!Sea!level!rise!may!also!exacerbate!flooding!in!coastal!watersheds!by!impeding!floodwater!drainage!into!the!ocean!or!Puget!Sound.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!18!Average!projected!change!for!ten!global!climate!models,!averaged!over!Washington!State.!Range!spans!from!a!low!(B1)!to!a!medium!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!

19!Projected!change!for!ten!global!climate!models!for!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!

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Flood!risk!is!not!projected!to!increase!in!all!watersheds,!however.!Flooding!in!colder,!snow;dominant!watersheds!is!most!often!associated!with!rapid!snowmelt!in!spring.!As!a!result,!flood!risk!related!to!rapid!snowmelt!in!snow;dominant!watersheds!is!projected!to!decline!slightly!due!to!lower!spring!snowpack!(Hamlet!and!Lettenmaier!2007).!!!Changes"in"summer"low"flows."Changes!in!summer!low!flows!are!also!expected.!Warmer!air!temperatures,!earlier!peak!runoff,!lower!snowpack,!and!declining!summer!precipitation!are!expected!to!result!in!more!severe!low!summer!streamflow!conditions!in!~80%!of!Washington’s!watersheds!(Snover!et!al.!2013).!The!projected!declines!are!expected!to!be!greatest!and!most!consistent!in!rain!dominant!and!mixed;rain;and;snow;basins.!The!projected!changes!in!summer!streamflow!conditions!are!expected!to!be!more!prominent!west!of!the!Cascades.!East!of!the!Cascades,!summer!streamflows!are!already!extremely!low!even!in!today’s!climate.!!!Changes(in(snow.!The!Washington!Cascades!and!Olympic!Mountains!contain!the!highest!fraction!of!“warm!snow”,!or!snow!falling!close!to!freezing,!in!the!continental!United!States!(Mote!et!al.!2008).!As!a!result,!warming!winter!temperatures!associated!with!climate!change!will!have!a!significant!impact!on!snowpack!accumulation!and!snow!season!length!in!Washington.!Projections!for!changes!in!snow!quality!are!not!available.!!Declining"snowpack."Warming!air!temperatures!will!lead!to!more!winter!precipitation!falling!as!rain!rather!than!snow,!particularly!at!lower!and!middle!elevations!where!projected!warming!pushes!average!winter!temperatures!above!freezing!for!longer!periods!of!the!winter!season.!Average!spring!snowpack!across!Washington!State!(as!measured!on!April!1)!is!projected!to!decline!in!the!21st!century!for!a!high!(RCP!8.5)!and!low!(RCP!4.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario!(Table!4)!(Mauger!et!al.!2015).!Snow!accumulation!at!other!points!in!the!winter!season!is!also!affected!(Table!4;!Figure!9).!See!Appendix!C!for!maps!showing!projected!monthly!changes!in!Dec!1!–!April!1!snow!water!equivalent!(SWE)!in!Washington!State!for!the!2050s!and!2080s!for!a!low!and!high!greenhouse!gas!scenario.20!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!20!Snow!Water!Equivalent,!or!SWE,!is!a!measure!of!the!total!amount!of!water!contained!in!the!snowpack.!April!1st!is!the!approximate!current!timing!of!peak!annual!snowpack!in!the!mountains!of!the!Northwest.!

Table(4.!Projected!changes!in!average!(with!range)!winter!season!snow!water!equivalent!(SWE)!in!Washington!State!for!the!2050s!(2040;2069)!and!2080s!(2070;2099)!for!a!low!and!high!greenhouse!gas!scenario,!relative!to!1970;1999.!Results!for!any!single!month!are!reflective!of!seasonal!snow!accumulation!through!that!date.(Source:(Mauger!et!al.!2015;!Data"Source:"Mote"et"al."2015!!( December(1( January(1( February(1( March(1( April(1(2050s((2040;2069)! ! ! ! !Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!

−53.0%(((;64!to!;26%)!

−45%(((;61!to!31%)!

−44%(((;57!to!27%)!

−50%(((;59!to!;39%)!

−48%((−58!to!−32%)!

High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!

−64%(((;81!to!;40%)!

−51%(!(;67!to!;40%)!

−48%(((;66!to!;37%)!

−55%(((;70!to!;45%)!

−56%((−71!to!−41%)!

2080s((2070;2099)( ! ! ! !

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!

−58.3%(((;73.6!to!;39.5%)!

−51%(!(;67!to!;26%)!

−52%(((;68!to!;25%)!

−61%(((;70!to!;53%)!

;61%((−72!to!−52%)!

High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!

−81.1%(((;87.0!to!;70.8)!

−69%(((;79!to!;57%)!

−73%(((;82!to!;60%)!

−76%(!(;81!to!;67%)!

−76%((−88!to!−61%)!

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Shorter"snow"season."Warming!seasonal!temperatures!also!contribute!to!a!shorter!snow!season!overall!(Figure!10).!Warmer!fall!temperatures!delay!the!start!of!accumulation!in!the!fall!while!warmer!spring!temperatures!contribute!to!earlier!spring!snowmelt.!Snow!season!length!in!Washington!State!is!projected!to!shorten!by!;33!days!on!average!(range:!;45!to!;21!days)!and!;55!days!(range:!;68!to!;39!days)!on!average!by!the!2050s!and!2080s,!respectively,!under!a!high!greenhouse!gas!scenario!(RCP!8.5).21!!As!with!snowpack,!natural!variability!will!continue!to!produce!above!average!and!below!average!conditions!on!a!year;to;year!basis.!However,!what!is!considered!above!average!and!below!average!will!be!redefined!over!time!as!the!long;term!effects!of!warming!winter!temperatures!are!realized.!

Figure(9.!Projected!change!in!March!1!snow!water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!2050s!(2040;2069)!and!2080s!(2070;2099),!relative!to!1970;1999.!Changes!are!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!and!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!Areas!with!deeper!reds!and!oranges!indicate!areas!with!greater!loss!of!SWE.!Figure"source:"R."Norheim,"UW"Climate"Impacts"Group.""

!

!

"

!!!!!!! !

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!21!The!projected!change!in!snow!season!length!for!a!low!greenhouse!gas!scenario!(RCP!4.5)!is!;25!days!(range:!;32!to!;18)!for!the!2050s!and!;35!days!(range:!;46!to!;24!days)!for!the!2080s,!relative!to!1970;99.!See!the!Statewide!Climate!Summary!in!Appendix!B!for!more!details.!!!!

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100−100

−50

0

50

100

150

Cha

nge

in D

ec 1

st S

WE

(%)

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

50

100

150

200

Snow

Sea

son

Leng

th (d

ays) Figure(10.!Projected!length!of!

the!snow!season,!in!days,!for!middle!elevations!(4,000!to!5,000!ft)!for!the!Oregon!and!Washington!Cascades,!relative!to!average!snow!season!length!for!1950;1999!(142!days;!gray!horizontal!line).!Figure!shows!the!results!for!seven!individual!climate!models!(thin!red!lines)!and!the!average!of!the!seven!models!(thick!line).!Figure"source:"Snover"et"al."2013.""

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Sea(level(rise.(Sea!level!along!coastal!Washington!and!in!Puget!Sound!is!projected!to!continue!to!rise!throughout!the!21stcentury!due!to!the!combined!effects!of!global!sea!level!rise,!land!subsidence!related!to!plate!tectonics,!ocean!currents,!wind!patterns,!and!the!distribution!of!both!global!and!regional!glacier!melt!(Mauger!et!al.!2015).!Sea!level!in!Seattle!is!projected!to!rise!+6!inches,!on!average,!by!2050!(range!of!−1.0!to!+19!inches,!relative!to!2000)!and!+24!inches,!on!average,!by!2100!(range!of!+4!to!+56!inches,!relative!to!2000;!NRC!2012).22!A!recent!assessment!of!change!in!coastal!flooding!in!Island!County!due!to!sea!level!rise!concluded!there!was!a!50%!probability!of!at!least!nine!inches!of!sea!level!rise!by!2050!and!at!least!2.2!feet!of!sea!level!rise!by!2100!for!a!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario!(Miller!et!al.!2016).!At!the!1%!probability!level,!Miller!et!al.!(2016)!projected!+1.4!feet!and!+4.9!feet!of!sea!level!rise!by!2050!and!2100,!respectively.!Updated!sea!level!rise!scenarios!that!take!these!factors!into!account!for!different!regions!of!the!state!are!expected!in!2018.!!Sea!level!change!at!a!specific!location!will!be!largely!dependent!on!the!rate!and!direction!of!vertical!land!movement,!and!regional!wind!and!ocean!circulation!patterns!(Mauger!et!al.!2015).!While!the!majority!of!Washington!State!is!projected!to!experience!rising!sea!level,!continued!high!rates!of!uplift!along!to!northwest!Olympic!Peninsula!may!result!in!a!localized!decline!in!sea!level!in!the!near!future.!However,!one!study!determined!the!there!is!less!than!a!5%!chance!that!sea!level!at!Neah!Bay!will!continue!to!fall!through!the!21st!century!(Petersen!et!al.!2015).!!!!Rising!seas!will!also!exacerbate!the!frequency!and!impact!of!coastal!flooding,!inundation!of!low;lying!areas,!wave!energy,!storm!surge,!and!erosion.!MacLennan!et!al.!(2013)!projected!that!coastal!bluffs!in!the!San!Juan!Islands!could!recede!26!to!43!ft.!by!2050!and!75!to!115!ft.,!relative!to!the!year!2000,!for!a!moderate!and!high!sea!level!rise!scenario.23!This!loss!corresponds!to!a!doubling!of!the!current!rate!of!recession!for!the!San!Juan!Islands.!Coupled!with!increasing!coastal!inundation,!increased!erosion!rates!are!likely!to!result!in!loss!of!coastal!habitat!and!shifts!in!coastal!ecosystems!(e.g.,!coastal!wetlands,!tidal!flats,!and!beaches)!(NWF!2007,!NRC!2012,!Thorne!et!al.!2015,!Hamman!et!al.!2016,!Miller!et!al.!2016).!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!22!!!!Average!based!on!a!moderate!warming!scenario!(A1B),!relative!to!2000.!!23!The!moderate!sea!level!rise!scenario!used!in!MacLennan!et!al.!(2013)!was!0.54!ft!for!2050!and!2.03!ft!for!2100.!The!high!sea!level!rise!scenario!was!1.57!ft!for!2050!and!4.69!feet!for!2100.!

More!details!on!the!impacts!of!climate!change!on!the!Puget!Sound!region!and!ongoing!climate!risk!reduction!efforts!can!be!found!in!State%of%Knowledge%Report:%Climate%Change%in%Puget%Sound,%available%at!cig.uw.edu.!

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Box!2.!Projected!Changes:!Fire!Risk,!Forest!Health,!&!NonFNative!Invasive!Species!(Wildfire."Drier!and!warmer!summer!conditions!in!Washington!State!are!expected!to!increase!the!annual!area!burned,!and!the!frequency!and!intensity!of!wildfires!on!both!the!west!and!east!sides!of!the!Cascades.!As!temperatures!rise,!snowpack!declines,!and!summer!precipitation!decreases,!fuel!sources!will!dry!out,!facilitating!ignition!and!spread!of!fire!across!the!landscape!(Abatzoglou!and!Williams!2016).!Additionally,!earlier!spring!snowmelt!is!expected!to!lengthen!the!fire!season.!By!the!2040s,!the!average!annual!area!burned!in!forested!ecosystems!(i.e.,!Western!and!Eastern!Cascades,!Blue!Mountains,!Okanogan!Highlands)!is!projected!to!increase!by!a!factor!of!3.8!(relative!to!1980;2006)!for!a!low!and!high!warming!scenario.!In!non;forested!ecosystems!(i.e.,!Columbia!Basin!and!Palouse!Prairie)!mean!area!burned!is!projected!to!increase!by!a!factor!of!2.2!(Littell!et!al.!2010).!!

Projected!changes!in!fire!risk!for!wet!areas!with!a!low!historic!incidence!of!fire!(e.g.,!Puget!Trough,!Olympic!Mountains)!are!more!difficult!to!assess!relative!to!drier!areas!in!eastern!Washington.!In!general,!fire!risk!in!western!Washington!is!expected!to!increase!and!lead!to!an!expansion!of!annual!area!burned!in!regions!of!western!Washington!previously!not!considered!fire!prone!(Littell!et!al.!2010).!Two!studies!suggest!that!area!burned!west!of!the!Cascades!could!double!by!the!2080s,!relative!to!1971;2000!(Littell!et!al.!2010;!Rogers!et!al.!2011).!

Insect"and"Disease"Outbreaks."As!forests!become!increasingly!stressed!due!to!warmer!and!drier!summers,!trees!will!become!more!susceptible!to!insect!and!disease!outbreaks.!Making!generalized!statements!about!insect!and!disease!response!to!changing!climate!conditions!is!challenging,!however.!Many!pests!and!pathogens!typically!have!climate!mediated;behaviors,!making!them!sensitive!to!shifts!in!temperature!and!precipitation.!As!a!result,!responses!will!be!site;,!species;,!and!host;specific!(Mauger!et!al.!2015).!For!example:!!•! Mountain"Pine"Beetle."The!amount!of!forest!susceptible!to!mountain!pine!beetle!(Dendroctonus"ponderosae)!

is!projected!to!increase!early!in!the!21st!century!(+27%!higher!in!2001;2030,!relative!to!1961;1990)!as!rising!temperatures!enable!mountain!beetles!to!infest!higher!elevation!forests!that!were!previously!too!cool,!and!then!decrease!(;49!to!;58%!lower!by!2071;2100,!relative!to!1961;1990)!as!rising!temperatures!exceed!the!thermal!optimum!of!the!mountain!pine!beetle!(Bentz!et!al.!2010).!!

•! Laminated"Root"Rot.!Laminated!root!rot!is!caused!by!a!fungus!(Phellinus"sulphurascens)!which!kills!patches!of!Douglas;fir!in!Washington!State.!Fungal!infections!start!within!a!patch!of!forest!(i.e.,!the!infection!center)!and!expand!radially!outward!at!a!rate!of!approximately!12!inches!per!year!(Washington!State!Academy!of!Sciences!2013).!The!fungus!spreads!underground!via!root!systems!and!can!persist!for!decades!in!dead!roots!and!stumps.!Climate!change!could!increase!the!rate!of!fungal!expansion!and!may!also!increase!the!susceptibility!of!Douglas;fir!to!fungal!infection!(Washington!State!Academy!of!Sciences!2013).!!

•! Armillaria,"Mistletoe,"&"Sudden"Oak"Death"(Figure!11).!Warming!temperatures!and!changes!in!precipitation!(either!decreasing!or!increasing)!may!increase!the!risk!of!forest!damage!from!dwarf!mistletoes!and!Armillaria"root!disease!(Kliejunas,!2011).!Studies!suggest!that!warming!and!increasing!annual!precipitation!may!increase!the!risk!of!sudden!oak!death!in!the!Pacific!Northwest!(Kliejunas,!2011;!Sturrock!et!al.!2011).!!

NonDNative"Invasive"Species.!Warming!temperatures!and!declining!summer!water!availability!are!expected!to!stress!many!ecosystems!throughout!the!Pacific!Northwest!(Snover!et!al.!2013),!likely!increasing!the!susceptibility!of!these!communities!to!invasion!by!non;native!species!(Alpert!et!al.!2000).!This!increased!vulnerability!to!non;native!invasive!species!may!pose!new!management!challenges!to!Parks.!! !

Figure(11.!Dwarf!mistletoe!growing!on!a!pine!tree!(left;!source:!Craters!of!the!Moon!National!Monument!and!Preserve).!Canker!on!an!oak!tree!with!sudden!oak!death!(right;!source:!Joseph!O’Brien,!Forest!Service).!

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!!!!!!!!!

5! Key!Findings:!CrossFcutting!Issues!for!Regions!and!Statewide!Programs!

!The!Washington!State!Parks!climate!change!vulnerability!assessment!was!structured!to!explore!climate!change!impacts!on!park!properties,!infrastructure,!and!operations!at!the!regional!level!and!to!a!subset!of!statewide!programs.!The!results!of!the!individual!workshops!are!in!Appendix!A.!While!each!region!and!program!is!unique,!staff!opinions!on!which!changes!in!climate!were!likely!to!be!most!important!to!State!Parks!were!largely!consistent.!Those!were:!changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology,!declining!snowpack,!changes!in!vegetation,!and!sea!level!rise.!!! !

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!!!!!!

!!!

5.1!Changes(in(Precipitation(and(Hydrologic(Extremes:((Enhanced"Seasonal"Precipitation,"More"Intense"Heavy"Rain"Events,"Flooding,"and"Related"Effects""!

!Managing!water,!whether!it!is!too!much!(flooding,!erosion,!landslides)!or!too!little!(drought,!extreme!summer!low!streamflows),!is!an!ongoing!challenge!for!State!Parks!that!is!likely!to!be!exacerbated!by!climate!change.!Key!concerns!related!to!changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology!include!increased!winter!flooding,!landslides,!mudslides,!erosion,!higher!groundwater!tables,!and!low!water!issues!during!summer.!!!Observed!Changes:!Precipitation!and!Hydrologic!Extremes!|"As!discussed!in!Section!4,!there!have!been!no!discernable!trends!in!annual!precipitation,!with!the!exception!of!extreme!precipitation!events!west!of!the!Cascades.!Observed,!long;term!changes!in!streamflow!reflect!the!influence!of!warming!temperatures!on!Washington’s!hydrology.!!!Impacts!on!Parks:!Current!Variability!in!Precipitation!and!Hydrologic!Extremes!|!Winter!flooding,!heavy!precipitation!events,!and!low!water!levels!during!the!summer!are!already!common!issues!in!Washington!State!Parks.!!!Winter!flooding!has!resulted!in!campsite!closures!at!Potlatch,!Belfair,!Twanoh,!Ocean!City,!Twin!Harbors,!and!Grayland!Beach!state!parks.!Flooding!was!also!flagged!as!a!recurring!issue!at!Schafer!State!Park!and!Rainbow!Falls!State!Park.!For!example,!Chehalis!River!flooding!in!December!2007!destroyed!a!$1!million24!!foot!and!vehicle!entrance!bridge!at!Rainbow!Falls!State!Park!when!the!bridge!was!struck!by!woody!debris!and!a!dislodged!park!footbridge!carried!downriver!by!floodwaters!(Figure!12)!(AECOM!2012).!A!water!line!serving!the!park!was!also!destroyed.!The!damage!closed!the!park!completely!for!almost!six!months!and!severed!the!northern!and!southern!parts!of!the!park,!effectively!closing!off!access!to!the!south!end!of!the!park.25!During!the!Eastern!Region!workshop,!Parks!staff!noted!that!numerous!flood;related!repairs!have!been!required!throughout!the!region,!including!Mount!Spokane!State!Park!and!Pearrygin!Lake!State!Park.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!24!“Rainbow!Falls!State!Park!Back!Open!Today”,!The"Chronicle,"May!23,!2008,!!http://www.chronline.com/news/article_ab157cf8;134d;5f10;aca5;eee723edd1c8.html!!25!AECOM!2012."Final"Environmental"Assessment:"Rainbow"Falls"State"Park"Entrance"Project"Lewis"County,"Washington."FEMA;1734;DR;WA!(Public!Assistance).!Prepared!by!AECOM!for!the!U.S.!Department!of!Homeland!Security,!FEMA!Region!X.!Available!at:!https://www.fema.gov/media;library;data/20130726;1831;25045;9010/rainbow_falls_sp_final_ea.pdf!!

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Heavy!precipitation!events!create!additional!challenges!for!Parks!beyond!flooding.!During!pre;workshop!interviews,!Winter!Recreation!staff!noted!that!heavy!precipitation!events!in!winter!2015/16—described!by!staff!as!a!winter!when!“precipitation!came!on!like!a!fire!hose”—resulted!in!a!record;breaking!number!of!downed!trees!for!Winter!Recreation.!According!to!staff,!the!program!did!not!fully!recover!until!February.!These!events!also!resulted!in!several!road!washouts.!For!example,!the!Orr!Creek!Sno;Park!has!been!closed!since!December!2015!due!to!a!washout!of!Forest!Road!23.26!The!same!storm!event!led!to!multiple!washouts,!downed!trees,!and!landslides!at!other!nearby!Sno;Parks.!!Landslides,!mudslides,!and!high!groundwater!tables!are!also!challenging!for!Parks.!Prolonged!and/or!intense!heavy!rain!events!have!triggered!damaging!slides!affecting!access!to!trails!and!parks!(Figure!13).!Sequim!Bay,!Manchester,!Lake!Sylvia,!and!Cape!Disappointment!state!parks!have!all!been!impacted!by!landslide!issues.!Staff!also!noted!that!the!impact!of!high!groundwater!on!septic!systems!at!Dosewallips!State!Park.!The!park!was!required!to!replace!11!septic!systems,!built!in!the!1960s,!with!a!$6!million!membrane!bioreactor!treatment!system.27!!!Low!water!issues!seem!to!be!less!prevalent!for!Parks!than!the!problems!associated!with!flooding!and!heavy!precipitation,!but!they!do!create!problems.!Staff!from!the!Southwest!Region!noted!that!recreation!on!Mayfield!Lake!at!Ike!Kinswa!State!Park!has!been!negatively!affected!in!years!with!low!water!levels.!Drought!conditions!and!the!need!to!conserve!water!have!also!required!reducing!irrigation,!prompting!complaints!from!park!visitors.!Water!supply!in!the!San!Juan!Island!marine!parks!can!also!be!affected!by!drought!given!the!reliance!on!seasonal!precipitation!to!recharge!wells!in!those!parks!(where!available).!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!26!Removal!of!natural!debris!slides!(e.g.,!rock,!mud,!tress)!is!the!responsibility!of!the!landowner,!such!as!the!US!Forest!Service!or!private!landowners.!In!these!cases,!the!Winter!Recreation!Program!is!dependent!on!the!landowner’s!ability!to!make!a!timely!repair.!27!Additional!details!from!Washington!Dept.!of!Ecology,!2015,!“Dosewallips!State!Park!Fact!Sheet!for!Public!Notice!;!12;16;15”,!Dosewallips!State!Park!Fact!Sheet!for!Public!Notice!;!12;16;15.pdf,!accessed!June!25,!2017.!!!!

Figure(12.!Flooding!at!Rainbow!Falls!State!Park,!December!2007.!Image"sources:"Washington"State"Parks"(top),"AECOM"2012"(bottom)!

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!

Projected!Changes:!Precipitation!and!Hydrology!|!Seasonal"Streamflow"and"Hydrologic"Extremes."Warming!temperatures,!declining!snowpack,!and!changing!seasonal!precipitation!are!expected!to!alter!the!hydrologic!behavior!of!rivers!and!streams!in!Washington!State.!As!temperatures!across!Washington!State!continue!to!rise,!a!greater!fraction!of!winter!precipitation!will!fall!as!rain!rather!than!snow,!resulting!in!higher!winter!streamflows,!lower!snowpack,!and!lower!summer!streamflows!(see!Section!4!for!information!on!projected!changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology).!!!Workshop!Concerns!About!Projected!Changes!in!Precipitation!and!Hydrology!|!The!potential!impacts!of!changes!in!seasonal!precipitation,!extreme!rainfall,!and!streamflow!on!park!properties,!infrastructure,!and!operations!are!diverse!but!also!consistent!across!regions!and!programs.!The!most!frequently!discussed!concerns!during!project!workshops!were!issues!related!to!increasing!winter!precipitation!and!more!intense!heavy!rain!events.!These!included!the!potential!for!more!erosion,!landslides,!washouts,!flooding,!and!issues!with!stormwater!management.!Issues!related!to!drier!summers!and!lower!summer!streamflows!were!also!identified.!Potential!impacts!identified!by!staff!are!summarized!below.!!Potential"impacts"related"to"increasing"cool"season"(fall,"winter,"spring)"precipitation"and"more"intense"heavy"rain"events:"

•! Increasing!winter!precipitation!and!more!intense!heavy!rain!events!are!likely!to!increase!the!frequency!and/or!extent!of!erosion,(landslides,(and(road(washouts.(These!impacts!may!block!or!limit!access!to!parks,!specific!park!features!(e.g.,!a!beach,!snowmobile!or!hiking!trails),!or!park!infrastructure!(e.g.,!restrooms,!historic!sites)!until!repaired!by!Parks,!landowners,!or!other!entities.!Related!financial!impacts!include!the!cost!of!rerouting!trails!and!roads,!and!the!cost!of!replacing!or!repairing!infrastructure.!The!potential!for!erosion,!landslides,!and!road!washouts!

Figure(13.!A!before!and!after!picture!of!renovations!made!to!the!Hamilton!Mountain!Trail!in!Beacon!Rock!State!Park!following!winter!mudslides.!Volunteers!from!the!Washington!Trails!Association!helped!rebuild!the!trail.!Photo"credit:"Washington"State"Parks,"via"Twitter"post"on"April"3,"2017.!

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can!be!exacerbated!in!areas!affected!by!wildfire,!which!is!projected!to!increase!with!climate!change.!Erosion!potential!increases!after!a!wildfire!due!to!destruction!of!the!organic!matter!in!the!upper!soil!layer.!The!loss!of!organic!matter!reduces!the!soil’s!moisture!holding!capacity,!reducing!soil!stabilization!and!increasing!erosion!(DeBano!1981;!McNabb!and!Swanson!1990).!!

•! Higher!soil!saturation!due!to!more!winter!precipitation!can!lead!to!more(downed(trees,!especially!during!wind!events.!This!risk!is!exacerbated!by!projected!increases!in!fire!risk!and!changes!in!tree!health,!which!may!leave!more!trees!susceptible!to!falling.!Downed!trees!can!lead!to!park!closures,!blocked!trails!and!roads,!safety!hazards,!and!higher!operating!costs!(for!downed!tree!removal).!Revenue!can!be!lost!if!downed!trees!keep!an!area!out!of!service!for!an!extended!period.!It!can!take!days!to!restore!access!to!small!amounts!of!trail!after!large!blowdown!events.!!

•! Heavier!extreme!precipitation!events!will!require!rethinking(how(stormwater(is(managed.(Most!stormwater!facilities!are!designed!to!deal!with!historical!precipitation!extremes.!More!intense!heavy!rain!events!may!require!going!above!minimum!permit!requirements,!which!can!be!difficult!and!expensive.!!

•! More!winter!precipitation,!more!winter!precipitation!falling!as!rain,!and!an!earlier!onset!of!spring!snowmelt!could(raise(groundwater(levels!in!winter,!contributing!to!localized!flooding!in!low!elevation!areas!and!problems!with!septic!systems!(particularly!older!systems).!Relocating!septic!systems!compromised!by!higher!groundwater!may!be!difficult!and/or!require!moving!restroom!facilities!farther!from!parking!lots,!creating!inconveniences!for!visitors.!As!noted!previously,!higher!groundwater!can!also!create!challenges!for!construction.!

•! Increasing!fall,!winter,!and!spring!precipitation!or!more!frequently!saturated!soils!may!affect!the!window(for(construction(at!Parks.!This!can!affect!project!schedules!and!construction!budgets.!Delays!may!push!construction!projects!to!summer!(peak!park!usage)!or!lead!to!closures!when!maintenance!issues!cannot!be!addressed!in!time.!!

Potential"impacts"related"to"higher"winter"streamflows"and"increased"winter"flooding:"

•! Higher!winter!streamflows!may!increase(streambank(erosion,!contributing!to!more!bridge!scour!and(erosion(of(roads,!trails,!and!other!areas!adjoining!rivers!and!streams.!Depending!on!the!location!and!severity!of!erosion,!roads!into!parks!and/or!access!to!trails!may!be!cut!off!until!repaired!by!Parks,!landowners,!or!infrastructure!owners.!Historic!structures!and!archaeological!sites!may!also!be!affected.!As!archaeological!sites!are!exposed,!the!potential!for!vandalism!of!those!sites!becomes!are!concern.!!

•! Increased!winter!flooding!may!cause!more!frequent!or!extensive!damage(to(park(infrastructure,(historic(sites,(and(regional(trail(systems.!This!includes!damage!to!park!buildings,!historic!structures!and!archaeological!sites,!campgrounds,!septic!systems,!road!infrastructure,!and!culverts.!Trails!and!footbridges!can!also!be!washed!out!by!flooding.!The!damage!associated!with!flooding!may!require!temporary!or!extended!closures!while!under!repair.!Flooding!can!also!create!temporary!access!problems!when!blocking!roads!and!trails.!Staff!noted!that!the!potential!for!flood!damage!increases!in!areas!affected!by!wildfire.!

•! Increased!winter!flooding!and!the!potential!for!more!erosion!may!require!relocating(park(facilities(and(campgrounds!and/or!changing(assumptions(about(where(to(locate(facilities(and(public(access(in!relation!to!rivers,!streams,!and!bluffs.!"!

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•! Increasing!flood!risks!and!more!intense!heavy!rain!events!may!require!changing(infrastructure(design.!For!example,!Parks!may!need!to!consider!increasing!culvert!sizes!or!widening!bridge!spans!to!accommodate!higher!peak!flows.!!

Potential"impacts"related"to"decreasing"summer"precipitation"and"lower"summer"streamflows:"

•! Lower!summer!water!levels!can!affect(summer(recreation(opportunities(tied!to!water!features!such!as(river!rafting!and!fishing.!This!may!shift!recreation!preferences!in!ways!that!may!require!Parks!to!adjust!or!accommodate.!!

•! Lower!summer!streamflow!would(negatively(affect(salmon(and(vernal(pools.!Warmer!summer!stream!temperatures!will!likely!reduce!the!amount!of!habitat!suitable!for!salmon!while!increasing!suitable!bass!habitat.!This!could!incur!high!ecological!consequences!while!also!affecting!recreational!opportunities.!

•! Warmer,!drier!summers!could(increase(water(demand!for!parks!maintenance!or!visitors.!Increasing!demand!may!be!difficult!to!accommodate!in!parks!where!water!supplies!are!already!limited!(e.g.,!San!Juan!Island!marine!parks)!or!at!parks!with!junior!water!rights.!Meeting!water!demand!may!necessitate!trucking!water!into!parks,!seeking!out!alternative!water!supplies,!and/or!limiting!water!use!onsite!(e.g.,!reducing!irrigation,!changing!to!composting!toilets).!Parks!that!are!dependent!on!municipal!water!suppliers!could!be!forced!to!close!a!park!if!water!is!not!available!for!parks!due!to!drought.!

•! In!some!locations,!lower(summer(groundwater(levels!may!also!affect!groundwater!quality!and/or!require!additional!well!maintenance!(for!example,!due!to!more!sand!or!grit!in!the!well!casing,!and!increase!the!need!for!pumping,!which!can!tax!equipment).!!

•! Impacts!on!summer!water!supplies!may!make!it!more!difficult!to!open!new!parks!in!eastern!Washington.!

Adapting!to!changes!in!precipitation!and!shifting!hydrologic!regimes!is!anticipated!to!be!challenging!and!expensive!for!Parks.!In!most!regional!workshops,!Parks!staff!categorized!these!impacts!as!hard!to!adapt!to!with!high!consequences;!however,!classifications!vary!slightly!by!region!and!will!also!vary!park;to;park!depending!on!the!context!(see!Appendix!A!for!more!details).!!Repairing!or!restoring!infrastructure,!historic!sites,!and!trail!systems!that!are!damaged!by!winter!floods!are!anticipated!to!be!expensive!for!Parks.!In!addition!to!the!financial!hurdle!these!issues!pose,!replacing!and!updating!park!facilities!and!infrastructure!often!involves!complex!permitting!procedures!and!design!considerations!that!may!limit!the!ability!to!repair!or!replace!damaged!property.!Staff!also!noted!that!access!to!FEMA!post;disaster!recovery!funds!may!be!unavailable!if!a!facility!or!structure!has!a!documented!history!of!recurring!flood!damage.!This!may!limit!the!financial!resources!available!to!recover!from!more!frequent!and!larger!winter!flood!events.!!!Modifying!infrastructure!design!has!been!suggested!as!a!way!to!accommodate!projected!increases!in!winter!flood!risk!(widening!culverts,!raising!freeboard).!However,!Parks!staff!note!that!going!above!current!permitting!requirements!(e.g.,!raising!freeboard!to!accommodate!projected!increases!in!winter!streamflow)!would!likely!increase!project!costs!and!be!challenging!to!justify.!!!While!relocation!of!existing!facilities,!historic!sites,!and!trails!could!reduce!the!impacts!of!increased!winter!flooding,!staff!noted!that!there!are!also!challenges!associated!with!relocation.!Successful!

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relocation!of!facilities,!historic!sites,!campgrounds,!or!trails,!is!dependent!on!the!availability!of!adequate!space!within!the!affected!park.!If!suitable!space!is!not!available,!Parks!may!need!to!acquire!additional!land!to!accommodate!relocation.!Re;routing!trails!may!also!present!ecological!and!financial!challenges,!as!new!trail!locations!may!affect!sensitive!species!and!habitats!and!can!be!costly!to!relocate.!Additionally,!while!relocating!campgrounds!to!higher!ground!may!mitigate!campsite!closures!due!to!floodwater!inundation,!experience!to!date!suggests!that!the!public!may!object!to!these!kinds!of!moves.!Visitors!are!drawn!to!campsites!in!close!proximity!to!water.!!!Preservation!of!historic!sites!presents!a!unique!challenge!to!Parks.!As!noted!in!discussions!about!sea!level!rise!(see!Section!5.4),!State!Parks!is!required!to!protect!historic!sites!and!structures.!However,!robust!guidance!on!how!these!structures!should!be!protected!from!climate!change!impacts!does!not!exist!at!this!point!in!time.!In!many!cases,!relocation!of!historic!sites!is!not!a!viable!solution!because!the!site!location!is!an!integral!component!of!a!structure’s!historical!value.!!!The!punctuated!nature!of!some!climate!impacts!is!challenging!for!State!Parks!to!adapt!to!from!a!logistical!and!budgeting!standpoint.!For!example,!while!it!is!possible!to!estimate!the!risk!of!landslides,!rockslides,!or!mudslides,!predicting!exactly!when!and!where!these!events!will!occur!is!challenging.!This!lack!of!predictability!makes!it!difficult!for!State!Parks!to!budget!for!these!types!of!events!yet!when!they!occur!an!immediate!response!if!often!needed!(e.g.,!for!sediment!removal,!road!clearance,!etc.).!Furthermore,!repairs!or!permanent!solutions!to!slides!can!be!difficult!to!fund!and!permit.!Particularly!for!the!Winter!Recreation!Program,!mitigating!future!landslide!risk!is!contingent!on!other!landowners!(e.g.,!private!land!owners,!Forest!Service)!taking!action!to!adapt.!!!While!discussions!surrounding!State!Parks’!ability!to!adjust!to!projected!changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology!were!mainly!focused!on!projected!increases!in!winter!precipitation!and!flood!risk,!a!few!challenges!to!adapting!to!declining!summer!precipitation!and!streamflow!were!discussed.!For!example,!to!alleviate!increased!water!demand!during!dry!summer!months,!State!Parks!could!limit!onsite!water!use!by!reducing!irrigation.!This!may!be!unpopular!with!visitors!who!expect!State!Parks!to!provide!areas!of!green!grass,!even!during!the!dry!summer!months,!but!staff!felt!that!additional!outreach!would!help!address!visitor!concerns.!More!limited!summer!water!supplies!may!also!make!it!difficult!to!open!new!parks!or!expand!existing!supplies,!particularly!in!eastern!Washington.!!! !

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5.2!(Changes(in(Snowpack(!

!Changes!in!snowpack!can!affect!recreation!activities!throughout!the!Washington!State!Parks!system!but!are!particularly!impactful!on!the!Winter!Recreation!Program,!which!relies!on!annual!sales!of!daily!and!seasonal!Sno;Park!permits!and!snowmobile!registrations!to!support!maintenance!and!operation!of!the!Sno;Park!system!(Figure!14).!!!Observed!Changes:!Snowpack!|(As!discussed!in!Section!4,!spring!snowpack!in!the!Washington!and!Oregon!Cascades!varies!substantially!year;to;year,!but!has!declined!since!the!mid;20th!century.!!!Impacts!on!Parks:!Current!Snow!Variability!|!Seasonal!variation!in!snow!cover,!snow!duration,!and!snow!quality!affects!annual!operating!costs!and!Winter!Recreation!Program!revenue!associated!with!permit!sales!and!registrations.!Low!snow!years!(such!as!the!winter!of!2014;2015)!generally!lead!to!lower!permit!sales!and!snowmobile!registrations,!while!high!snow!years!(such!as!the!winter!of!2016;2017)!generally!lead!to!higher!sales.!Staff!noted!that!revenue!during!the!snow!drought!of!2014;15!declined!30%.!Because!the!Winter!Recreation!Program!is!self;funded!with!an!operating!budget!based!on!the!previous!season’s!revenue,!variability!in!snowpack!and!snow!quality!can!create!both!challenges!and!opportunities!for!the!program.!For!example,!if!a!low!snowpack!year!is!followed!by!a!high!snowpack!year,!operating!expenses!for!plowing!and!trail!grooming!may!exceed!available!budget.!Plowing!costs!for!years!with!more!rain;on;snow!events!can!also!be!higher!than!budgeted,!since!rain;on;snow!makes!snow!heavier!and!more!difficult!to!clear!and!groom.!Winter!Recreation!may!have!to!stop!plowing!some!locations!before!the!season!ends,!limiting!access!to!affected!

Figure(14.(Freshly!groomed!snow!on!Rex!Derr!Trail!at!Pearrygin!Lake!State!Park.!Photo!credit:"Washington"State"Parks,"via"Twitter"post"on"February"23,"2017.!

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Sno;Parks!or!leading!to!pre;season!closures.!In!other!cases,!funds!may!be!pulled!from!budgets!for!equipment!replacement/repair!to!maintain!access.!On!the!positive!side,!high!snowpack!years!create!an!opportunity!to!place!extra!funds!in!an!emergency!reserve.!!!Staff!noted!that!managing!the!Winter!Recreation!Program!is!becoming!more!challenging!as!winter!snowpack!and!access!to!Sno;Parks!becomes!more!variable!and!as!population!growth!creates!more!demand.!These!factors!create!what!staff!considered!a!“double!whammy”!for!the!program.!!Projected!Changes:!Snowpack!&!Snow!Season!Length!|"As!discussed!in!Section!4,!snowpack!is!projected!to!decline!substantially!and!the!snow!season!is!projected!to!shorten.!!!Workshop!Concerns!About!Projected!Changes!in!Snowpack!and!Snow!Season!Length!|(Declining!snowpack!and!a!shorter!snow!season!are!likely!to!lead!to!a!drop!in!Sno;Park!permit!purchases!and!snowmobile!registrations!over!time.!Lower!sales!would!affect!annual!revenue!for!the!Winter!Recreation!Program!and!may!reduce!emergency!budget!reserves,!leaving!the!program!more!vulnerable!to!year;to;year!variability!in!snowpack!and!funding.!A!shorter!snow!season!also!amplifies!the!impact!of!Sno;Park!closures!on!user!access!and!revenue!generated!at!those!locations.!With!a!shorter!operating!season,!closures!affecting!sites!for!multiple!days!or!weeks!may!end!up!being!a!significant!portion!of!the!operating!season.!Lower!winter!recreation!revenue!would!also!affect!staffing!in!regional!offices!supported!by!winter!recreation!revenue.!!Other!anticipated!impacts!related!to!declining!snowpack!include!more!road!washouts,!downed!trees,!and!problems!with!access!as!areas!previously!armored!by!snow!become!exposed!to!increasing!winter!rain!and!more!extreme!precipitation!events.!The!Planning!Program!noted!that!lower!snowpack!may!impact!relationships!with!recreation!advocacy!groups!if!program!priorities!have!to!shift.!For!example,!while!recreation!advocacy!groups!may!want!to!see!an!increase!in!the!number!of!winter!sport!facilities,!declining!snowpack!may!shift!Parks’!priorities!and!ability!to!maintain!and!develop!new!winter!recreation!facilities.!On!the!positive!side,!plowing!costs!could!decease!with!lower!snowpack.!!!Changes!in!snowpack!are!expected!to!affect!recreation!in!other!seasons!as!well.!Southwest!Region!staff!noted!that!projected!changes!in!snowpack!and!earlier!snowmelt!could!reduce!summer!lake!levels,!particularly!in!years!with!low!rainfall.!This!may!lead!to!closure!of!freshwater!boat!facilities!if!water!levels!drop!too!low,!as!seen!in!the!past!at!Ike!Kinswa!State!Park.!Earlier!snowmelt!and!later!snowfall!(due!to!!warmer!spring!and!fall!temperatures)!could!increase!park!use!in!the!shoulder!seasons!and!increase!and/or!shift!the!demand!for!other!recreational!activities!such!as!mountain!biking.!These!changes!could!offset!potential!impacts!to!traditional!winter!recreational!activities!and!benefit!revenue.!However,!these!changes!may!also!create!staffing!challenges,!which!may!require!shifting!park!staffing!levels!or!hiring!seasonal!staff!for!an!extended!season.!!!Adapting!to!most!of!the!recreation;related!impacts!resulting!from!a!declining!snowpack!and!earlier!snowmelt!were!considered!moderately!difficult.!The!consequences!varied!from!low!to!high,!partially!in!recognition!that!while!the!consequences!for!an!individual!park!may!be!significant!(e.g.,!Mt.!Spokane),!the!consequences!for!operations!and!revenue!system;wide!will!be!limited!to!parks!that!are!reliant!on!snowpack!for!winter!visitation.!A!notable!exception!was!the!related!issues!of!more!erosion,!landslides,!

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and!washouts,!which!were!rated!hard!to!adapt!to!and!high!consequence!primarily!because!of!the!costs!associated!with!repairing!these!problems!and!impacts!on!access!(see!Appendix!A!for!more!information).!!!Winter!Recreation!staff!noted!that!adapting!program!operations!to!decreasing!snowpack!may!require!moving!Sno;Park!access!points!(e.g.,!parking!lots)!to!higher!elevations.!This!kind!of!shift!would!create!several!challenges.!First,!moving!Sno;Parks!may!require!building!new!roads!at!a!time!when!the!US!Forest!Service!is!focusing!more!on!decommissioning!roads.!Second,!moving!Sno;Parks!to!higher!elevation!will!reduce!usable!trail!miles.!Staff!estimated!that!moving!the!system!up!in!elevation!could!shrink!the!amount!of!usable!trail!miles!from!3,300!miles!to!1,500!miles.!Moving!to!higher!elevation!would!also!push!more!trail!users!into!avalanche!territory,!increasing!safety!risks.!Parks!that!have!traditionally!relied!on!winter!recreation!as!the!main;draw!(e.g.,!Mount!Spokane,!Lake!Easton,!and!Iron!Horse!state!park)!may!ultimately!have!to!transition!over!to!a!more!traditional!park!management!system!that!operates!with!a!year;round!workforce!structure.!!For!more!details!on!how!declining!snowpack!may!affect!specific!parks!programs!and!regions,!see!the!workshop!summaries!in!Appendix!A.!!! !

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5.3!Changes!in!Ecosystem!Health!&!Vegetation!Disturbance:!Wildfire,!Tree!Health,!and!NonFNative!Invasive!Species!!

!Washington!State!Parks!manages!diverse!habitats!across!the!state!–!from!rainforest!on!the!Olympic!Peninsula!and!prairie;lowland!forests!in!the!Puget!Trough28,!to!dry!pine;mixed!conifer!forests!and!shrub;steppe!in!eastern!Washington!(WSPRC!2016).!Natural!forest!areas!are!central!to!the!experience!that!Washington!State!parks!provide!visitors.!These!areas!also!provide!essential!habitat!for!native!species,!including!federally!designated!threatened!and!endangered!species.!Maintaining!and!restoring!a!wide!diversity!of!habitat!is!an!important!component!of!the!agency’s!stewardship!responsibilities.!!!!Observed!Changes:!Fire!Risk,!Tree!Health!and!NonFNative!Invasive!Species|(Observed!changes!in!ecosystem!health!and!vegetation!disturbance!are!discussed!in!Box!1!in!Section!4.!!!!Impacts!on!Parks:!Current!Ecosystem!Health!and!Vegetation!Disturbance!|!Washington!State!Parks!are!significantly!impacted!by!wildfire,!insect!and!disease!outbreaks,!and!non;native!invasive!species.!Wildfire!is!a!major!threat!in!eastern!Washington,!although!fires!have!also!occurred!in!western!Washington!(e.g.,!Beacon!Rock!and!Fort!Ebey!state!park).!!Wildfires!have!forced!temporary!park!closures!and!have!directly!damaged!park!infrastructure.!For!example,!Washington’s!record!breaking!2015!fire!season!resulted!in!a!five;week!closure!of!Alta!Lake!State!Park!and!damaged!large!swaths!of!forested!park!land!(Figure!15).!Required!repairs!to!the!site!included!replacement!of!power!lines!and!facilities.!Staff!also!noted!that!burn!bans!can!lead!to!campsite!reservation!cancellations,!and!lost!revenue.!Similarly,!cancellations!occur!when!fires!compromise!air!quality.!The!ability!to!quickly!evacuate!campgrounds!in!the!event!of!a!fire!is!always!a!concern!in!high!fire!risk!areas!(e.g.,!25;Mile!Creek!in!Lake!Chelan).!Eastern!Region!staff!have!also!had!to!deal!with!significant!post;fire!flooding!and!debris!management!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!28!The!Puget!Trough!ecoregion!is!a!stretch!of!land!between!the!Olympics!and!Willapa!Hills!(to!the!west)!and!the!Cascade!range!(to!the!east).!The!ecoregion!stretches!the!length!of!Washington!State,!and!does!not!exceed!1,000!ft.!in!elevation.!The!region!includes!coastal!lowlands,!coastal!islands,!and!low;elevation!foothills.!!

Figure(15.(Fire!damage!at!Alta!Lake!State!Park,!2015.!Image!source:!John!Hendrick;!KXLY4!News!

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issues!in!areas!affected!by!wildfire.!State!Parks!is!currently!partnering!with!the!School!of!Environmental!and!Forest!Sciences!(SEFS)!at!the!University!of!Washington!to!assess!wildfire!fuel!and!fire!hazards,!as!well!as!develop!strategies!to!reduce!these!issues!on!State!Parks!lands!(Box!3).!!!Parks!staff!in!all!regions!are!actively!engaged!in!forest!thinning!and!fire!prevention!to!reduce!fire!risks!to!parks.!These!activities!also!extend!to!addressing!tree!health!issues!related!to!insects!and!disease.!Disease!or!insect!damage!to!park!trees!creates!tree;fall!hazard!risks!for!visitors!and!structures,!and!can!impact!operations!via!the!need!to!mitigate!these!risks.!In!the!last!seven!years,!the!Northwest!Region!has!closed!multiple!campgrounds!because!of!tree!health!concerns.!For!example,!the!campground!and!group!camp!site!at!South!Whidbey!State!Park!were!closed!in!2015!and!in!2016!due!to!aging!old;growth!and!concerns!that!falling!limbs!or!trees!pose!a!risk!to!campers.!Concerns!over!tree!health!and!a!resulting!increase!in!tree;fall!hazard!led!Parks!to!close!the!campground!at!Rockport!State!Park!in!2013!and!convert!the!park!to!day;use!only.!Staff!noted!a!feedback!loop!among!fire,!insects,!and!disease,!where!insect/disease!damage!often!results!in!high!stress!conditions!in!trees!or!leads!to!tree!mortality,!resulting!in!drier!fuels!and!greater!risk!of!wildfire!intensity!and!spread.!These!feedback!loops!pose!challenges!for!State!Parks!in!both!developed!landscapes!(e.g.,!protecting!staff,!public,!and!infrastructure),!and!in!undeveloped!areas!of!the!park!system!(e.g.,!safeguarding!recreational!trails,!preserving!user!experience!and!habitats).!!!In!addition!to!tree!health!issues,!Parks!is!significantly!affected!by!invasive!species!and!noxious!weeds.!For!example,!English!ivy!and!Scotch!broom!are!rampant!in!several!western!Washington!parks.!Poison!hemlock!is!also!an!issue!on!Whidbey!Island.!!Parks!currently!conducts!surveys!to!identify!a!subset!of!the!known!or!suspected!non;native!invasive!species!across!the!park!system.!Where!these!species!are!identified!in!high;value!habitats,!regardless!of!their!legal!status,!efforts!are!made!to!map!these!populations,!develop!treatment!approaches,!and!suppress!them!as!time!and!resources!allow.!Resources!are!never!sufficient!and!most!efforts!commonly!focus!on!noxious!weeds,!which!are!most!commonly!found!in!developed!areas!of!the!park!system!and!areas!that!are!disturbed!by!human!or!natural!events.!This!is!especially!the!case!following!wildfire,!where!noxious!and/or!non;native!species!always!increase!their!footprint!in!the!wake!of!a!fire.!Parks!visitors!and!adjacent!landowners!expect!that!Parks!will!identify,!remove,!and!prevent!the!spread!of!noxious!weed!species.!Additionally,!Parks!has!a!legal!responsibility,!enforced!by!the!Washington!State!Noxious!Weed!Control!Board,!to!remove!noxious!weeds!from!their!property.!Eradicating!existing!invasions!and!preventing!future!spread!is!a!resource!intensive!process!requiring!funding,!staff!time,!equipment,!and!continued!monitoring.!!! !

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"

Box(3.(Identifying(Fire(Risk(to(Prioritize(Treatments(to(Reduce(Fuels(and(Fire(Hazard(in(Eastern(WA(State(Parks!Ashley"Blazina"and"Ernesto"Alvarado"|"University"of"Washington"School"of"Environmental"&"Forest"Sciences"!The!2014!through!2016!Washington!state!fire!seasons!had!a!combined!1,687,503!acres!burn!in!large!wildfires,!with!2015!being!the!largest!wildfire!season!in!state!history!with!more!than!1!million!acres!burned!(DNR!2017).!The!state!had!not!experienced!an!area!burned!of!this!magnitude!since!early!in!the!20th!century.!The!majority!of!these!fires!occurred!in!eastern!Washington,!where!conditions!typically!remain!hot!and!dry!for!much!of!the!late!spring!through!the!end!of!September,!although!western!Washington!is!not!immune!to!fire!risk.!While!the!general!public!often!views!these!fires!as!issues!for!private!timber!lands!and!national!forests,!state!lands,!including!parks,!are!also!involved!in!this!growing!threat.!!!Fire!exclusion!since!the!late!1800s!and!early!1900s!(Cohen!and!Miller!1978)!has!caused!a!shift!in!fire!regimes!that!has!increased!the!availability!of!fuels.!Lack!of!fire!has!led!to!overly!dense,!flammable!forests,!and!woody!debris,!organic!duff,!and!plant!litter!to!accumulate!on!the!forest!floor!(Agee!1993,!Ogle!and!DuMond!1997),!creating!unprecedented!amounts!of!fuels!that!can!prompt!longer,!more!intense!fires!than!these!environments!have!experienced!in!recent!history.!Population!across!the!state!is!expected!to!continue!to!grow,!as!will!the!associated!wildland;urban!interfaces!(WUIs).!For!example,!current!population!estimates!show!Spokane!County!increasing!from!approximately!489,000!residents!in!2015!to!592,000!residents!in!2040,!a!20%!increase!over!a!25;year!period!(WA!OFM!2012).!This!assessment!centers!around!two!of!eastern!Washington’s!largest!state!parks!in!the!Spokane!area:!Riverside!and!Mt.!Spokane.!Both!parks!currently!have!large!accumulations!of!woody!debris!and!very!dense!tree!stands.!!!University!of!Washington’s!Wildland!Fire!Sciences!Laboratory!(WFSL)!developed!models!to!determine!the!amount!of!fuels!and!associated!fire!risks!for!the!two!state!parks.!This!assessment!was!designed!to!help!Parks!staff!“rank”!the!fire!risks!across!each!park,!so!that!fuel!treatments!are!prioritized!for!park!areas!with!the!highest!wildfire!risk.!!!Initial!results!of!fuel!and!forest!condition!indicate!the!fire!risks!are!moderate!to!high!in!several!areas!across!both!parks.!Both!parks!have!many!fire;related!vulnerabilities!that!contribute!to!higher!risks.!Riverside!is!an!urban!park,!and!its!proximity!to!WUIs!and!wildlife!habitat!make!these!areas!a!higher!priority!for!protection!from!mixed!and!high;severity!fire!damage!than!other!areas!with!similar!fire!hazard.!Mt.!Spokane’s!steep!slopes,!high!elevation,!and!minimal!number!of!entrance!and!egress!points!from!the!park!make!areas!bordering!the!park’s!two!main!roads!particularly!important!to!lower!fuel!hazard!on.!!!Due!to!the!increasing!population!of!the!Greater!Spokane!Area,!we!recommend!treating!fuels!in!park!areas!with!these!additional!associated!“weights”!listed!above.!We!recommend!reducing!tree!density!per!stand!and!raising!the!average!crown!height!per!stand!to!reduce!surface!fire!and!potential!crown!fires.!Additional!outreach!to!neighboring!landowners!(both!residential!and!commercial)!is!recommended!to!educate!park!neighbors!of!fire!dangers!and!land!treatments!that!they!can!implement!on!their!properties.!!

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Projected!Changes:!Fire!Risk,!Forest!Health,!and!NonFNative!Invasive!Species!|!Warming!temperatures,!declining!summer!precipitation,!and!declining!snowpack!will!stress!trees!and!vegetation!in!ways!that!are!expected!to!increase!disturbance!events!such!as!drought,!fire,!and!insect!and!disease!damage.(Projected!changes!in!ecosystem!health!and!vegetation!disturbance!are!discussed!in!greater!detail!in!Box!2!in!Section!4.!(!Workshop!Concerns!About!Changes!in!Fire!Risk,!Tree!Health!and!NonFNative!Invasive!Species|(Changes!in!vegetation!are!a!serious!concern!for!Washington!State!Parks.!Through!a!series!of!regional!workshops,!staff!highlighted!the!implications!of!increased!fire!risk,!increased!susceptibility!of!stressed!trees!to!insect!and!disease!damage,!and!the!spread!of!non;native!invasive!species!and!noxious!weeds!for!State!Parks.!

"Wildfire."The!majority!of!Park!regions!ranked!an!increased!risk!of!wildfire"as!a!high!consequence!issue.!Wildfires!can!result!in!more!campsite!cancellations,!more!frequent!park!closures,!costly!repairs!to!damaged!infrastructure,!reduced!air!quality!due!to!smoke,!increased!establishment!of!non;native!invasive!species,!loss!of!unique!landscapes!and!habitats,!and!diversion!of!staff!and!resources!to!deal!with!issues!related!to!on;going!fires,!which!can!affect!the!

ability!to!complete!previously!planned!work.!Post;fire!tree!damage!can!create!safety!hazards!for!park!visitors!and!require!removal!from!areas!in!proximity!to!campgrounds,!trails,!and!other!areas!accessed!by!the!public.!Even!in!the!absence!of!fires,!an!increase!in!high!fire!risk!conditions!would!require!more!frequent!or!prolonged!burn!bans!at!parks,!affecting!visitor!experiences.!Extensive!thinning!to!reduce!fire!risk!may!also!affect!visitor!experiences!and!reduce!visits!to!affected!sites.!The!net!result!is!a!higher!potential!for!lower!revenue,!lower!visitor!satisfaction,!and!increased!operating!expenses!in!areas!affected!by!more!wildfire!(Figure!16).!!!Staff!rated!the!ability!to!adapt!to!an!increased!risk!of!forest!fires!as!moderate!to!hard.!While!Parks!is!already!engaged!in!efforts!to!reduce!wildfire!risk,!adapting!to!an!increased!risk!of!fire!will!require!more!proactive!forest!fuel!reduction!management.!Without!additional!funding,!there!would!be!increased!strain!on!staff!time!and!financial!resources.!!"

Figure(16.(State!Parks!staff!respond!to!a!fire!in!Conconully!State!Park!in!summer!2015.!Photo!credit:"Washington"State"Parks.!

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Insects"&"Disease."Changes!in!tree!health!due!to!an!increase!in!insects!and!disease!would!exacerbate!existing!challenges!with!forest!health!issues!in!many!parks.!Main!concerns!relate!to!the!potential!for!more!tree!fall!impacts!on!park!operations.!Tree!hazards!could!lead!to!more!campsite!and!picnic!area!closures!or!more!extensive!clearing!of!infected!trees,!which!may!reduce!visitor!satisfaction.!Consequences!include!increased!public!safety!concerns,!fewer!park!visits,!lower!revenue,!and!higher!operating!expenses!at!affected!sites.!Staff!considered!these!issues!to!be!of!high!consequence.!"!The!ability!of!Parks!to!adapt!to!changes!in!insects!and!diseases!varied!from!easy!to!hard.!Parks’!strategy!to!address!insect!and!disease!issues!includes!thinning!and!forest!health!evaluations!aimed!at!1)!reducing!the!spread!and!susceptibility!of!forested!habitats,!and!2)!identifying!trees!which!may!present!public!safety!concerns!in!the!future.!Increased!tree!susceptibility!to!these!non;native!agents!will!require!expanding!existing!management!programs,!a!process!that!could!build!upon!structures!and!staff!already!in!place.!More!resources!are!needed!to!expand!staff!training!to!recognize!symptoms!of!stressed!and!infected!trees,!however.!Staff!also!noted!that!it!can!be!difficult!to!identify!trees!that!pose!a!fall!risk;!even!trees!that!appear!healthy!(especially!coniferous!trees)!can!“fall!over!at!a!moment’s!notice.”!As!climatic!changes!increase!stressors!on!treed!landscapes,!forest!management!practices!will!need!to!be!increasingly!proactive!(i.e.,!removing!susceptible!trees!before!they!are!infested!or!become!diseased),!as!the!agency!will!be!unable!to!treat!and!spray!entire!forests!to!prevent!infestation!or!disease.!These!management!shifts!will!likely!require!increased!staff!involvement!(e.g.,!staff!effort!and!staff!training!to!identify!signs!of!tree!stress),!which!may!be!challenging!given!current!staff!limitations.!!

!NonDNative"Invasive"Species.(The!potential!for!expansion!of!non;native!invasive!species!(including!noxious!weeds)!in!a!changing!climate!could!reduce!the!ecological!integrity!of!native!vegetative!communities!on!park!properties.!This!shift!could!affect!visitor!experiences!and!the!stewardship!mission!of!State!Parks.!Staff!noted!that!rising!summer!temperatures!and!extended!drought!periods!will!likely!stress!hard!pine!species!in!Washington,!especially!at!the!lower,!drier!edges!of!their!ranges,!thus!weakening!them!and!predisposing!them!to!high!risk!of!successful!beetle!attacks.!Additionally,!more!non;native!weeds!would!require!expanding!management!efforts!to!identify,!remove,!treat,!and!prevent!further!invasion!of!these!unwelcome!“visitors”.!Absent!additional!resources,!enhancing!these!efforts!would!put!additional!strain!on!limited!staff!time!and!resources.!!!Staff!rated!the!ability!to!adapt!to!more!non;native!invasive!species!and!noxious!weeds!as!moderate!to!hard.!While!Parks!has!significant!experience!managing!weeds,!controlling!expansion!of!non;native!invasive!species!may!prove!challenging!due!to!finite!financial!resources!and!staff!time.!Increasing!herbicide!use!would!be!expensive!and!may!be!undesirable!to!park!visitors,!who!have!voiced!disapproval!over!past!use!of!herbicides!to!combat!noxious!weeds.!!! !

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5.4! !!Sea!Level!Rise!and!Related!Impacts!!!

!Washington!State!Parks!has!dozens!of!parks!located!along!the!Washington!coastline.!Many!of!these!parks!are!among!the!more!heavily!used!parks!in!the!State!Park!system.!As!a!result,!sea!level!rise!was!identified!as!a!major!concern!for!the!Northwest!Region,!Southwest!Region,!and!the!Planning!and!Stewardship!programs.!!!!Observed!Changes!in!Sea!Level!|(As!discussed!in!Section!4,!sea!level!is!rising!in!most!coastal!areas!of!Washington!State!and!Puget!Sound,!with!the!notable!exception!of!Neah!Bay.!!!Impacts!on!Parks:!Current!Climate!|!Coastal!erosion!and!flooding!related!to!storm!surge,!wave!action,!and!King!Tides29!are!already!common!problems!in!coastal!parks.!Bluff!erosion!has!been!a!persistent!issue!at!South!Whidbey!State!Park;!portions!of!a!coastal!trail!have!been!lost!and!stairs!providing!beach!access!require!regular!repair.!Staff!are!working!to!limit!shoreline!erosion!near!historic!buildings!at!Manchester!State!Park,!and!erosion!at!Dash!Point!State!Park!has!led!to!bluff!sloughing.!Significant!sloughing!events!have!also!occurred!at!Blake!Island,!Kopachuck,!and!Sequim!Bay!state!parks.!These!events!have!limited!or!blocked!access!to!beaches!and!trails,!which!negatively!affects!visitation!rates!at!these!parks.!On!the!outer!coast,!Cape!Disappointment!has!lost!over!260!acres!to!erosion!over!the!past!40!years!(Kaminsky!et!al.!2003,!Kaminsky!et!al.!2010).!Westport!Light!State!Park!has!also!experienced!significant!losses!from!beach!erosion!near!the!South!Jetty!for!more!than!25!years.!!Coastal!flooding!has!also!created!challenges!for!Parks!staff.!Inundation!of!coastal!parks!can!disrupt!facility!operations,!reduce!access!to!parks!or!park!amenities!(if!low;lying!roads!are!inundated),!damage!low;lying!facilities,!and!lead!to!campsite!closures.!In!the!Northwest!Region,!the!beach!and!cabins!at!Cama!Beach!State!Park!are!frequently!inundated!during!annual!King!Tides!(Figure!17).!Staff!often!have!to!clear!out!driftwood!deposited!by!the!flooding!and!repair!cabins!(e.g.,!dry!out!cabins,!replace!damaged!wiring).!!!!King!Tides!also!frequently!flood!the!lower!day!use!area!and!boat!launch!at!Camano!Island!State!Park,!Spencer!Spit!State!Park,!Bay!View!State!Park,!and!the!campground!at!Fort!Casey!Historical!State!Park.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!29!King!Tides!are!higher;than;usual;tides!which!only!occur!a!few!times!per!year.!In!Washington,!King!Tides!typically!occur!during!winter.!!!

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Other!parks!with!historical!structures!and!archaeological!sites!currently!at!risk!of!damage!from!coastal!flooding,!storm!surge,!or!erosion!include!Kitsap!Memorial,!Potlatch,!Belfair,!and!Fort!Worden!state!park.!!!!Projected!Sea!Level!Rise!|!Detailed!discussion!of!projected!sea!level!rise!for!Washington!State!is!available!in!Section!4.!!!!Workshop!Concerns!About!Sea!Level!Rise!|!Parks!staff!ranked!most!of!the!impacts!associated!with!sea!level!rise!as!hard"to"adapt"to!and!high"consequence!issues.!A!key!concern!is!the!number!of!coastal!parks!potentially!affected!by!sea!level!rise!impacts!and!the!associated!cost!of!dealing!with!those!impacts.!(As!sea!level!rises,!greater!reach!of!tides!and!storm!surge,!increased!erosion,!and!permanent!inundation!of!low;lying!areas!is!expected!to!increasingly!disrupt!or!limit!access!to!park!beaches!and!facilities.!For!example,!low;lying!parking!lots!may!become!unusable!for!longer!periods!of!time!with!more!frequent!coastal!flooding.!These!issues!can!also!damage!parks!infrastructure,!including!buildings,!roads,!septic!systems,!campgrounds,!docks,!and!beach!stairs.!

Reduced!access!and!potential!park!closures!will!negatively!impact!visitation!rates!and!visitor!experiences,!while!also!increasing!operating!costs!to!repair!damage.!Saltwater!intrusion!in!groundwater!supplies!could!also!affect!services!at!coastal!parks,!expanding!the!issue!beyond!current!saltwater!intrusion!problems!at!Blake!Island!State!Park.!!Another!issue!raised!by!Stewardship!staff!is!the!potential!that!increased!erosion!will!reveal!more!archaeological!deposits!on!park!properties.!Once!exposed,!these!sites!become!more!vulnerable!to!vandalism.!Agency!responsibilities!for!protecting!archaeological!sites!will!increase!in!this!scenario.!Staff!noted!the!potential!need!to!expand!off;site!artifact!storage!as!a!result.!Sea!level!rise!will!also!likely!have!implications!for!coastal!restoration!projects.!!!Adapting!to!these!projected!changes!will!be!expensive.!Managing!erosion!issues!is!an!on;going!and!costly!challenge!for!State!Parks!with!few!permanent!solutions.!Relocating!low;lying!facilities!and!campsites!to!higher!areas!will!only!be!possible!if!suitable!areas!exist!within!a!park.!State!Parks!may!also!receive!pushback!from!the!public!on!relocating!campsites!further!from!the!shoreline.!Moving!facilities!becomes!even!more!challenging!when!historical!facilities!are!involved.!Historical!sites!are!areas!of!significance!for!State!Parks!and!popular!attractions;!moving!the!facilities!disrupts!the!historical!setting!of!those!sites,!changes!visitor!experiences!with!the!sites,!and!can!potentially!damage!the!structures.!State!Parks!does!not!currently!have!any!guidance!to!help!staff!determine!if,!when,!and!how!to!adapt!historic!sites!to!the!impacts!of!sea!level!rise.!!(

Figure(17.!King!Tide!flooding!at!Cama!Beach!State!Park,!December!17,!2012.!Image"source:"J."Custer,""http://www.camabeachfoundation.org/kingDtides.html"

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Adapting!facility!water!supplies!affected!by!saltwater!intrusion!would!also!be!difficult.!Depending!on!location,!the!ability!to!hook!into!alternative!uncontaminated!water!sources!may!be!limited.!This!may!require!limiting!operations!or!closing!facilities!where!issues!cannot!be!resolved.!Belfair!State!Park!and!parks!along!Hood!Canal!are!more!likely!to!experience!these!challenges!relative!to!other!Southwest!Region!parks.!!While!adapting!to!sea!level!rise!will!be!costly,!sea!level!rise!impacts!and!the!order!in!which!to!address!those!impacts!will!vary!by!location!depending!on!what!is!affected!by!sea!level!rise,!visitor!levels,!unique!or!historical!features!of!a!park,!and!other!factors,!as!illustrated!in!the!following!examples!from!the!Southwest!Region’s!“deep!dive”!discussion!(for!more!information!see!Appendix!A)!based!on!the!Surging!Seas!Risk!Zone!Map:!

•! Manchester"State"Park."With!four!feet!of!sea!level!rise!(either!permanent!inundation!or!with!the!combination!of!lower!amounts!of!sea!level!rise!and!storm!surge),!road!access!to!structures!within!the!Manchester!State!Park!are!inundated.!However,!campsites!and!major!facilities!are!not!directly!affected.!The!facilities!that!did!fall!within!the!inundation!area!are!not!unique!or!of!historic!significance,!and!therefore!would!be!lower!priority!for!adapting.!!

•! Blake"Island"State"Park.!Sea!level!rise!would!increase!erosion!rates!and!inundate!coastal!areas!of!the!park.!Of!particular!importance!is!potential!inundation!of!the!marina!area!and!the!day;use!area!with!heavy!day;use!activity.!Blake!Island!State!Park!is!considered!a!unique!area,!and!therefore!the!potential!inundation!of!popular!day;use!areas!was!considered!a!high!concern.!!

While!the!sea!level!inundation!maps!are!useful!for!showing!areas!that!are!likely!to!be!permanently!inundated!or!affected!by!higher!surge,!the!maps!are!unable!to!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing.!Additional!site;by;site!evaluation!of!sea!level!rise!impacts!is!recommended!(see!Section!6;!Conclusions).! !

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5.5! Other!Climate!Change!Impacts!on!State!Parks:!Increasing!Temperatures!

!!Other!climate!change!impacts!discussed!by!staff!included!those!more!directly!associated!with!increasing!temperatures.!In!general,!impacts!related!to!temperature!were!considered!easier!to!adapt!to,!although!results!varied!by!region!and!impact.!Potential!issues!noted!by!staff!in!multiple!regions!and!programs!included!the!following:!!!Changes"in"Park"Visits.!Warmer!fall!and!spring!temperatures!could!lead!to!more!park!visitors!in!the!shoulder!seasons!(spring,!fall).!Warming!temperatures!may!also!shift!regional!patterns!of!park!visits.!For!example,!warming!may!increase!the!number!of!people!traveling!from!eastern!Washington!(where!people!may!consider!it!too!hot)!to!visit!parks!west!of!the!Cascades.!More!extreme!heat!events!would!also!likely!drive!more!people!to!visit!parks!with!water!features,!straining!parking!facilities!in!more!popular!locations!and!increase!general!wear;and;tear!on!facilities.!The!number!and!frequency!of!heat;related!medical!responses!at!parks!is!also!expected!to!increase.!If!the!park!visitation!rates!increase!it!will!likely!mean!more!revenue,!which!helps!deal!with!some!of!these!impacts.!!Changes"in"Water"Quality.!Algal!blooms!in!lakes!are!a!concern!because!of!the!potential!consequence!to!human!health!prior!to!detection.!Warmer!temperatures!during!summer!can!increase!algal!bloom!issues!in!lakes.!If!specific!algal!thresholds!are!reached,!State!Parks!is!required!to!close!recreational!access!to!the!affected!lakes.!Southwest!Region!staff!noted!that!Anderson!Lake!State!Park!currently!experiences!algal!blooms.!Staff!also!thought!that!Deep!Lake!in!Nolte!State!Park!could!experience!algal!bloom!issues!in!the!future!with!continued!warming.!!Similarly,!warmer!summer!water!temperatures!can!increase!the!potential!for!Vibrio!outbreaks!in!coastal!areas,!lakes,!rivers,!and!streams,!particularly!in!the!southern!Hood!Canal!region.!Vibrio"outbreaks!may!require!shutting!down!swimming!or!shellfish!harvest!areas.!However,!staff!noted!that!they!have!not!seen!any!reductions!in!park!use!where!those!closures!occur,!so!the!impact!is!easy!to!adapt!to.!!!More!on!these!and!other!impacts!discussed!in!this!section!are!included!in!the!workshop!summaries!in!Appendix!A.!!! !

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6! Conclusions!and!Next!Steps!!!!As!a!preliminary!assessment,!this!report!represents!an!initial!step!towards!preparing!the!Washington!State!Parks!system!to!address!climate!change!impacts.!However,!this!assessment!is!just!the!beginning!of!a!continuing!process!to!integrate!climate!change!considerations!into!planning,!decision;making,!and!activities!at!all!levels!of!State!Parks!management.!!!This!assessment!reveals!that!many!parks!are!already!experiencing!climate;related!concerns,!including!flood!damage!to!campsites!and!infrastructure,!wildfires!that!close!or!threaten!parks,!reduced!snowpack!that!curtails!winter!activities,!and!sea!level!rise!that!inundates!coastal!parks!and!infrastructure.!The!assessment!also!describes!how!these!and!other!climate;related!impacts!are!expected!to!be!exacerbated!by!continuing!climate!change!trends.!While!the!assessment!identified!examples!where!Parks!staff!considered!climate!change!in!planning!and!decision;making,!staff!also!emphasized!the!need!for!a!more!proactive!and!intentional!approach!to!addressing!climate!change!impacts.!!!To!develop!a!proactive!approach!to!addressing!climate!change!impacts,!the!authors!of!this!assessment!recommend!the!following!next!steps.!!Engage(Staff(to(Address(Climate(Risks(|(This!assessment!provides!a!foundation!for!developing!and!implementing!responses!to!climate!change!impacts.!Some!responses!are!appropriate!at!the!agency;wide!level!and!some!will!be!specific!to!a!region!or!individual!park.!In!most!cases,!engaging!staff!to!develop!responses!will!enhance!the!effectiveness!of!responses!and!increase!support!for!their!implementation.(!While!this!assessment!describes!a!wide!range!of!expected!climate!change!impacts,!there!are!a!common!set!of!impacts!that!affect!most!parks.!These!include!changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology,!changes!in!snowpack!and!changes!in!ecosystem!health!and!vegetation!disturbance.!Sea!level!rise!and!related!impacts!are!also!a!common!impact!at!most!coastal!parks.!There!may!be!a!common!set!of!responses!that!would!be!applicable!across!parks!experiencing!similar!climate!change!impacts.!!The!assessment!also!reveals!that!each!region,!and!in!some!cases!each!park,!is!likely!to!experience!climate!change!impacts!uniquely!depending!on!how!the!impacts!manifest!in!relation!to!the!specific!geographical!setting!and!park!features!(see!Appendix!A).!Thus,!while!there!are!commonalities!in!impacts!and!responses,!implementation!should!be!tailored!to!the!specific!impacts!and!park!setting.!At!the!

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specific!park!level,!additional!assessment!may!be!required!for!planning,!siting!infrastructure!and!other!activities.!!Due!to!the!large!number!of!Park!properties!and!the!wide!range!of!climate!change!impacts,!prioritizing!response!efforts!may!be!needed.!This!assessment!provides!ratings!for!the!expected!consequences!of!climate!change!impacts!and!the!ability!to!adjust!to!them.!Focusing!on!the!high!and!moderate!consequence!impacts,!and!secondarily!on!the!impacts!rated!easy!or!moderately!difficult!to!adjust!to!may!provide!an!initial!framework!for!prioritizing!efforts.!!Fill(information(gaps(|(In!most!cases,!this!report!provides!sufficient!information!to!develop!responses!to!climate!impacts,!especially!at!the!agency;wide!and!regional!scale.!However,!at!the!specific!park!scale,!additional!precision!may!be!warranted!for!infrastructure!siting!and!other!activities.!When!determining!if!additional!information!is!necessary,!it!is!useful!to!clarify!the!degree!of!precision!that!is!needed.!In!many!cases,!understanding!the!trends!and!the!potential!magnitude!range!of!the!impacts!is!sufficient!to!develop!responses.(!This!assessment!identified!a!number!of!topics!where!more!specific!information!could!aid!in!planning!and!decision!making.!These!information!gaps!could!inform!priorities!for!future!research,!ideally!within!the!context!of!an!adaptation!management!framework.!The!primary!information!gaps!identified!in!this!assessment!are:!!

•! SiteDspecific" examination" of" sea" level" rise" impacts" at" priority" parks."While! the! sea! level!maps!included!in!Appendix!D"are!useful!for!showing!areas!that!are!likely!to!be!permanently!inundated!or!affected!by!higher!surge,!the!maps!are!unable!to!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing.!These!sediment!processes!play!a!significant!role!in!determining!how!sea!level!rise!will!affect!the!shorelines!by!changing!the!shape!of!a!coastline!over!time!and!altering!sediment!movement! in! the!nearshore.!Therefore,! interpretation!of!how!sea! level! rise!will! affect! coastal!parks!should!consider!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!in!addition!to!the!storm!surge!zones!and!permanently!inundated!areas.!

!•! Higher"resolution"modeling"of"projected"changes"in"the"snowline.!Projected!changes!in!snow!water!

equivalent!(Section!5.2!and!Appendix!C)!were!developed!using!the!macroscale!Variable!Infiltration!Capacity! (VIC)!hydrologic!model! (Liang!et! al.! 1994).!VIC! is! a! large;scale!hydrologic!model!with!limited!ability!to!provide!fine;scale!projections!in!small!and!medium!sized!catchments.!As!a!result,!VIC!is!unable!to!generate!projections!for!shifts!in!the!snowline!across!Washington!State,!which!require! localized,! high! resolution! projections.! Projected! changes! in! snowline! elevation! are!extremely! important! for! the!Winter!Recreation!Program,!as! they!would!help! inform!Sno;Parks!prioritization!at!various!elevations!and!may!result!in!moving!Sno;Park!access!points!(e.g.,!parking!lots)!to!higher!elevations.!The!Distributed!Hydrology!Soil!Vegetation!Model!(DHSVM;!Wigmosta!et!al.!1994)!is!a!high;resolution!(e.g.,!100!m!for!watersheds!to!104!km2!for!multi;year!simulations)!hydrologic!model.!The!ability!of!DHSVM!to!generate!projections!at!high!spatial!resolutions!makes!it!an!ideal!choice!for!developing!projected!shifts!in!the!snowline.!Vulnerability!of!individual!Sno;Parks!across!the!state!should!thus!be!re;assessed!as!these!data!gaps!are!filled.!(

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Build(partnerships(|(Washington!State!Parks!is!not!alone!in!confronting!climate!change!impacts.!Many!state!agencies!have!begun!addressing!climate!change,!including!Washington!Department!of!Fish!and!Wildlife,!Washington!Department!of!Natural!Resources,!Washington!Department!of!Transportation,!and!many!others.!Many!tribes!have!also!conducted!climate!vulnerability!assessments!and!developed!adaptation!plans.!Many!agencies!and!tribes!are!addressing!climate!change!impacts!that!are!similar!to!those!identified!in!this!assessment!or!may!have!developed!responses!that!could!be!applicable!to!parks.!As!the!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission!takes!the!next!steps!to!develop!responses!to!climate!change!impacts,!these!entities!could!provide!valuable!guidance,!insights!and!experience!to!support!the!efforts.!(!!!

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Rosenberg,!E.A.,!P.W.!Keys,!D.B.!Booth,!D.!Hartley,!J.!Burkey,!A.C.!Steinemann,!and!D.P.!Lettenmaier.!2010.!Precipitation!extremes!and!the!impacts!of!climate!change!on!stormwater!infrastructure!in!Washington!State.!Climatic"Change,"102(1;2),!319;349.!

Rupp,!D.E.,!et!al.!2013.!Evaluation!of!CMIP5!20th!century!climate!simulations!for!the!Pacific!Northwest!USA.!Journal"of"Geophysical"Research:"Atmospheres,"118(19),!10,884;10,906.!!

Schundler,!G.,!J.!Mojica,!and!T.!Briceno.!2015.!Economic"Analysis"of"Outdoor"Recreation"at"Washington’s"State"Parks.!Earth!Economics,!Tacoma,!WA.!

Snover,!A.K.,!Mauger,!G.S.,!Whitely!Binder,!L.C.,!Krosby,!M.,!Tohver,!I.!2013."Climate"Change"Impacts"and"Adaptation"in"Washington"State:"Technical"Summaries"for"Decision"Makers.!State!of!Knowledge!Report!prepared!for!the!Washington!State!Department!of!Ecology.!Climate!Impacts!Group,!University!of!Washington,!Seattle.!

Stewart,!I.T.,!D.R.!Cayan,!and!M.D.!Dettinger.!2005.!Changes!toward!earlier!streamflow!timing!across!western!North!America.!Journal"of"Climate,!18(8),!1136;1155.!

Stoelinga,!M.T.,!M.D.!Albright,!and!C.F.!Mass.!2010.!A!new!look!at!snowpack!trends!in!the!Cascade!Mountains.!Journal"of"Climate!23.10!(2010):!2473;2491!

Sturrock,!R.N.!et!al.,!2011.!Climate!change!and!forest!diseases.!Plant"Pathology,!60,!133–149.!!Thorne,!K.M.,!B.D.!Dugger,!K.J.!Buffington,!C.M.!Freeman,!C.N.!Janousek,!K.W.!Powelson,!G.R.!Gutenspergen,!and!

J.Y.!Takekawa,!J.Y.!2015.!Marshes!to!Mudflats—Effects!of!Sea;Level!Rise!on!Tidal!Marshes!Along!a!Latitudinal!Gradient!in!the!Pacific!Northwest!(No.!2015;1204).!US!Geological!Survey.!

Westerling!ALR.!2016.!Increasing!western!US!forest!wildfire!activity:!sensitivity!to!changes!in!the!timing!of!spring.!Phil."Trans."R."Soc.!B!371!:!20150178.!http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0178!!

(WA!DNR)!WA!State!Department!of!Natural!Resources.!2017.!Fire!Prevention!&!Fuel!Management!Mapping!System.!https://fortress.wa.gov/dnr/protectiongis/fmanfire/default.aspx!

(WA!OFM)!Office!of!Financial!Management.!2012.!County!Growth!Management!Population!Projections!by!Age!and!Sex:!2010!;!2040.!Forecasting!Division.!State!of!Washington.!

Washington!State!Academy!of!Sciences.!2013.!Opportunities"for"Addressing"Laminated"Root"Rot"caused"by"Phellinus"sulphuracens"in"Washington’s"Forests.!A!Report!from!the!Washington!State!Academy!of!Sciences!in!cooperation!with!the!Washington!State!Department!of!Natural!Resources,!Olympia,!WA.!110!pages.!http://www.washacad.org/!

Wigmosta,!M.S.,!L.!Vail,!and!D.!P.!Lettenmaier,!1994:!A!distributed!hydrology;vegetation!model!for!complex!terrain.!Wat."Resour."Res.,!30,!1665;1679.!

(WSPRC)!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission!Mission!Statement.!Available!at:!http://parks.state.wa.us/176/Mission;Vision.!Accessed!June!15,!2017.!

(WSPRC)!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission.!2003.!Sun"LakesDDry"Falls"State"Park"Management"Plan,!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission.!Olympia,!WA.!Available!at:!http://parks.state.wa.us/DocumentCenter/Home/View/1563!!

(WSPRC)!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission.!2010.!Mount"Spokane"State"Park"Master"Facilities"Plan,"Draft"Environmental"Impact"Statement.Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission.!Olympia,!Washington.!Available!at:!http://parks.state.wa.us/DocumentCenter/Home/View/1468!

(WSPRC)!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission.!2012.!The"State"of"Parks.!A!report!to!the!state!Office!of!Financial!Management.!Olympia,!Washington.!August!2012.!Available!at:!http://parks.state.wa.us/DocumentCenter/View/306!!

(WSPRC)!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission.!2016.!2014D2019"State"Parks"Strategic"Plan:"May"19,"2016"Update.!Olympia,!WA.!Available!at!http://parks.state.wa.us/DocumentCenter/View/7663!!

Zervas,!C.!E.!2005.!Response!of!extreme!storm!tide!levels!to!long;term!sea!level!change.!In!OCEANS,"2005."Proceedings"of"MTS/IEEE!(pp.!2501;2506).!IEEE.

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50!|!P a g e !!

!Appendix!A:!Northwest!Region!Vulnerability!Assessment!Workshop!Summary!!!Prepared!by!!!Lara!Whitely!Binder,!Harriet!Morgan,!and!Dan!Siemann!University!of!Washington!Climate!Impacts!Group!!!!!

!

Appendix!A:!Northwest!Region!Workshop!Summary!!! Page!51!

Overview!of!the!Region!The!Northwest!Region!of!Washington!State!Parks!includes!67!parks30!located!in!the!central!and!north!Puget!Sound!region,!including!San!Juan!Islands!(Figure!1).!The!Northwest!Region!includes!Deception!Pass!State!Park,!the!agency’s!sixth!largest!park!by!area!and!its!most!visited!park!(almost!2.7!million!visits!in!2015).31!Other!popular!parks!in!the!region!include!Lake!Sammamish!(more!than!1.3!million!annual!visits),!Moran!State!Park!and!Birch!Bay!State!Park!(almost!800,000!annual!visits!each),!and!Saint!Edwards!State!Park!(approximately!620,000!annual!visits)!(ibid.).!!!The!Northwest!Region!also!includes!many!notable!historical!structures!and!cultural!sites,!including!the!following:!!

•! Fort!Casey!State!Park,!on!Whidbey!Island,!is!home!to!a!U.S.!Army!fort!constructed!in!the!late!1800s!and!used!World!War!II.32!!

•! Peace!Arch!Park,!a!day!use!park!located!on!the!border!with!Canada,!includes!the!Peace!Arch!Monument.!The!monument!was!constructed!in!1921!to!celebrate!the!100th!anniversary!of!the!Treaty!of!Ghent,!which!ended!the!War!of!1812!between!the!U.S.!and!the!United!Kingdom!and!created!a!process!for!formalizing!the!final!location!of!the!U.S.;Canada!boundary.!The!monument!is!also!recognized!as!the!first!structure!in!the!world!dedicated!to!celebrating!peace.33!!

•! Cama!Beach!State!Park!includes!approximately!50!bungalows,!constructed!in!the!1930s,!that!can!be!rented!for!overnight!stays.!The!park!was!acquired!in!1994!and!is!also!notable!as!an!area!historically!use!by!tribes!for!fishing!and!hunting.!!!

•! Deception!Pass!State!Park!includes!Kukutali!Preserve,!the!nation’s!first!park!to!be!co;owned!and!co;managed!by!a!federally!recognized!tribe!and!a!state!government!(in!this!case,!the!Swinomish!Indian!Tribal!Community!and!Washington!State!Parks.34!The!preserve!was!historically!used!by!the!Tribe!for!shellfish!gathering!and!beach!seining!for!salmon.35!

!Northwest!region!staff!priorities!in!the!near!term!(next!1;2!years)!include!a!continued!focus!on!providing!good!customer!service!to!parks!visitors!and!ensuring!natural!and!historical!resource!preservation!and!protection.!Internally,!the!Northwest!Office!(along!with!other!regions!and!headquarters)!is!still!recovering!from!and!adjusting!to!significant!budget!cuts!in!2011.!The!cuts!affected!staffing!levels,!training!opportunities,!and!other!program!priorities.!Managers!are!working!to!restore!resources,!staffing,!and!professional!training!opportunities!where!possible.!!!Staff!are!also!looking!to!develop!a!model!to!improve!maintenance!activities!(e.g.,!determining!the!right!mix!of!staffing!to!meet!daily!maintenance!needs!plus!the!capacity!to!maintain!and!foster!resources!into!the!future).!Finally,!regional!staff!are!working!on!ways!to!prioritize!projects!and!needs!for!the!region.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!30!As!accounted!for!in!GIS.!See!Figure!1.!!31!Personal!correspondence,!S.!Heller,!June!14,!2017.!!32!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission,!http://parks.state.wa.us/505/Fort;Casey!!33!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission,!http://parks.state.wa.us/562/Peace;Arch!!34!Swinomish!Indian!Tribal!Community,!http://www.swinomish;nsn.gov/resources/environmental;protection/kukutali;preserve.aspx!35!Swinomish!Indian!Tribal!Community,!http://www.swinomish;nsn.gov/resources/environmental;protection/kukutali;preserve.aspx!!

!


This!includes!identifying!top!issues!that!the!region!needs!to!be!dealing!with!and!what!to!focus!on.!!

!Figure(1.!Northwest!Region!Parks.!Figure"source:"R."Norheim,"UW"Climate"Impacts"Group.!

!

Key!Findings!from!the!Northwest!Region!Workshop!Input!on!how!climate!change!could!affect!Northwest!Region!parks!was!solicited!through!a!pre;workshop!interview!with!three!staff!members!and!a!workshop!with!Northwest!Region!staff!on!May!18,!2017.!The!pre;workshop!interview!provided!an!opportunity!to!learn!more!about!the!region!and!initial!staff!thoughts!on!region;specific!climate!impacts.!Additional!staff!with!responsibilities!in!management,!planning,!operations,!and!stewardship!participated!in!the!workshop!(six!participants!in!total).!!!The!workshop!began!with!an!overview!of!the!project’s!origins,!objectives,!scope,!and!outcomes.!The!

!


morning!also!included!presentations!on!projected!climate!change!impacts!on!the!Northwest!Region!and!highlights!from!the!pre;workshop!interviews.!Projected!climate!change!impacts!include:!!

•! Increasing!seasonal!temperatures!and!more!extreme!heat!events;"•! Decreasing!snowpack;"•! Changes!in!precipitation,!e.g.,!increasing!cool!season!precipitation!and!decreasing!summer!

precipitation;!more!intense!extreme!precipitation;!increased!risk!of!landslides);!"•! Changes!in!forest!health!and!fire!risk;!and!"•! Sea!level!rise."

A!detailed!summary!of!projected!changes!for!the!Northwest!Region!is!included!in!Appendix!B.!More!on!the!pre;workshop!interview!and!project!methodology!is!included!in!Section!2!of!the!assessment!report.!!(Regionawide(Discussion(Staff!were!asked!to!discuss!how!different!climate!change!impacts!could!affect!properties,!infrastructure,!and!operations!in!the!Northwest!Region.!For!each!impact!identified,!staff!rated!1)!the!ability!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!the!impact!(assuming!normal!resources!and!authorities),!and!2)!the!consequence!of!the!impact,!taking!into!account!the!ability!to!adjust!(Table!1).!Where!relevant,!parks!where!specific!impacts!may!be!an!issue!were!noted.!After!discussing!the!range!of!impacts!relevant!to!the!Northwest!Region,!staff!were!asked!to!identify!the!top!three!impacts!that!are!likely!to!be!most!important!to!the!Northwest!Region.!Those!were:!

•! Sea!level!rise!and!related!coastal!hazards!(e.g.,!coastal!flooding,!erosion,!storm!surge,!and!permanent!inundating),!!!

•! Changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology!(e.g.,!extreme!precipitation,!increased!flooding,!and!a!higher!risk!of!landslides),!and!!

•! Changes!in!wildfire!risk,!forest!health,!and!non;native!invasive!species.!

Sea"Level"Rise"and"Related"Coastal"Hazards!Staff!considered!sea!level!rise!a!top!concern!given!the!large!number!of!Northwest!Region!parks!located!on!the!shoreline!and!the!potential!costs!associated!with!adapting!to!sea!level!rise.!Potential!impacts!noted!by!staff!include!permanent!loss!of!low;lying!park!properties,!damage!to!low;lying!park!facilities!(e.g.,!buildings,!septic!systems,!parking!lots,!docks,!beach!stairs),!reduced!access!to!facilities!or!park!features!due!to!higher!tidal!reach!or!damage!to!infrastructure,!saltwater!intrusion!into!local!groundwater!supplies,!and!exposure!of!archaeological!deposits!due!to!increased!erosion.!!

Changes"in"Precipitation"and"Hydrology"The!next!set!of!concerns!(i.e.,!impacts!that!are!“hard!to!adjust!to”!and!“high!consequence”)!related!to!the!effects!of!increasing!winter!precipitation!and!more!intense!heavy!rain!events.!More!landslides,!land!movement,!or!sloughing!from!bluffs!or!other!unstable!slopes!can!damage!trails!or!other!park!infrastructure!and!cut!off!access!to!park!features.!The!unpredictable!frequency,!location,!and!size!of!slides!makes!it!difficult!to!plan!for!in!budgeting!processes!yet!an!immediate!response!is!often!required,!diverting!staff!and!financial!resources!from!other!priorities.!Furthermore,!repairs!or!permanent!solutions!to!slides!can!be!difficult!to!fund!and!permit.!(((

!


Table(1.!Adjustment!and!consequence!rating!keys!for!rating!climate!change!impacts.!

!!The!potential!for!problems!with!septic!systems,!an!increased!risk!of!river!flooding,!and!damage!to!culverts!were!also!rated!as!“hard!to!adjust!to”!and!“high!consequence”.!More!specifically:!!

•! Septic"systems."Higher!groundwater!levels!and!heavier!rain!events!could!affect!septic!system!performance,!particularly!older!systems.!Relocating!systems!may!be!difficult!and/or!require!moving!restroom!facilities!farther!from!parking!lots,!creating!inconveniences!for!visitors.!!

•! Flooding."The!potential!for!larger!flood!events!could!damage!parks!properties!adjacent!to!rivers,!requiring!repairs!and!changes!in!infrastructure!design!(e.g.,!may!need!to!widen!bridges!to!allow!passage!of!higher!flood!flows).!!

•! Culverts.!Staff!anticipate!more!problems!with!culvert!capacity!because!of!more!intense!heavy!rain!events.!The!region!already!has!an!issue!with!undersized!culverts!at!several!parks.!Redesigning!culverts!to!accommodate!higher!flows!can!be!expensive.!!!

!Changes"in"Wildfire"Risk,"Forest"Health,"and"NonDNative"Invasive"Species"The!third!most!important!set!of!impacts!for!the!Northwest!Region,!according!to!staff,!were!impacts!associated!with!changes!in!forest!health,!increasing!fire!risk,!and!non;native!invasive!species.!The!“Ability!to!Adapt”!and!“Consequence”!ratings!for!these!impacts!varied,!however.!The!potential!for!more!tree!health!issues!(due!to!insects,!disease,!and!pathogens)!and!an!increasing!fire!risk!(due!to!warmer!seasonal!temperatures!and!increasing!summer!drought!stress)!will!require!more!proactive!management!

Ability(to

(Adjust(

Easy(to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“a"blip”)"

Moderately(difficult(to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“this"would"be"a"hassle,"but"we"could"deal"with"it”)"!

Hard(to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“this"would"be"a"big"problem”)!

Minor!adjustment!would!be!required!to!maintain!service/meet!overall!program!objectives,!and!this!additional!action!can!be!easily!accommodated.!!

Additional!action!or!adjustment!would!be!required!to!maintain!service/meet!overall!program!objectives,!but!the!adjustment!can!be!made!if!needed.!!

Substantial!and/or!costly!action!would!be!required!to!adjust!to!this!impact.!This!impact!would!be!very!difficult!to!accommodate.!

!

Conseq

uence(

Low(consequence((“a"blip”)"

Moderate(Consequence((“this"would"affect"us"in"a"meaningful"way,"but"we"could"deal"with"it”)!

High(Consequence((“this"would"be"a"major"issue"for"our"program”)!

The!climate!change!impact!would!have!a!minor!impact!on!what!we!do,!how!we!do!it,!and/or!what’s!required!to!meet!our!program!responsibilities.!!

The!climate!change!impact!would!have!a!moderate!impact!on!what!we!do,!how!we!do!it,!and/or!what’s!required!to!meet!our!program!responsibilities.!The!objectives/services!could!still!be!largely!met,!but!notable!tradeoffs!will!be!required!and/or!some!losses!in!service!may!be!incurred.!

The!climate!change!impact!would!have!a!significant!impact!on!what!we!do,!how!we!do!it,!and/or!what’s!required!to!meet!our!program!responsibilities.!!

!

!


to!avoid!campground!closures!and!safety!risks.!Staff!are!already!actively!engaged!in!managing!tree!health!and!fire!risk!so!the!ability!to!adapt!to!this!expected!change!was!considered!easy,!assuming!funding!is!available.!However,!staff!also!noted!that!aggressive!thinning!and/or!required!clearing!to!remove!diseased!trees!can!be!difficult!in!the!face!of!public!and!political!pressure!to!preserve!trees.!Tree!fall!can!also!have!consequences!for!public!safety!so!the!consequence!was!considered!medium.!!!!Expectations!that!conditions!may!become!more!favorable!to!the!spread!of!non;native!invasive!species!rated!“hard!to!adjust!to”!and!“high!consequence.”!Regional!staff!have!experience!managing!non;native!invasive!species!but!limited!resources!for!invasive!species!management!and!public!and!political!expectations!that!these!invasive!species!will!be!eliminated!(coupled!with!legal!responsibilities!to!remove!the!invasives)!add!to!the!challenge!of!managing!non;native!invasive!species!on!park!properties.!!"Other"Impacts!Other!impacts!discussed!by!staff!included!the!expectation!the!potential!for!increased!visitor!use!in!authorized!and!unauthorized!areas!as!temperatures!warm!(with!related!issues!for!more!wear;and;tear!on!facilities!and!trash!in!unauthorized!use!areas),!the!potential!for!shifts!in!recreation!activities!in!response!to!changing!conditions!(impacts!on!revenue!are!uncertain),!the!potential!for!more!water!quality!issues!at!swimming!beaches!(potentially!leading!to!more!beach!closures),!and!increasing!water!stress!at!locations!with!limited!water!supplies!(e.g.,!San!Juan!Island!Marine!Parks).!More!information!on!the!range!of!issues!discussed!is!summarized!in!Table!2!at!the!end!of!this!section.!!

(“Deep(Dive”(Discussion(

After!discussing!climate!change!impacts!on!Southwest!Region!properties,!infrastructure,!and!operations!by!the!drivers!of!those!impacts!(e.g.,!increasing!temperatures,!changes!in!precipitation,!etc.),!regional!staff!selected!a!limited!number!of!individual!parks!for!discussion!on!climate!change!impacts!at!individual!locations.!The!decisions!on!which!sites!to!review!for!the!site;specific!discussion!were!made!during!the!workshop.!Coastal!sites!likely!to!be!affected!by!sea!level!rise!were!of!particular!interest!to!staff.!!!!Climate!Central’s!“Surging!Seas!Risk!Zone!Map”36!was!used!to!examine!how!different!amounts!of!sea!level!rise!could!affect!individual!parks.!The!online!tool!gives!users!the!ability!to!enter!a!specific!location!and!view!sea!level!rise!inundation!zones!associated!with!up!to!10!feet!of!sea!level!rise!in!one!foot!increments.!As!a!ready;to;use!online!desktop;tool,!the!Risk!Zone!Map!tool!provided!maximum!flexibility!to!view!any!park!requested!by!staff!without!having!to!map!all!parks!in!advance.!However,!the!tool!does!not!allow!users!to!integrate!their!own!GIS!information!into!the!results.!The!project!team!subsequently!mapped!sea!level!rise!for!a!select!set!of!locations,!based!on!workshop!discussions!and!additional!staff!input,!using!State!Parks!GIS!data!and!the!NOAA!sea!level!rise!data37!used!in!the!Surging!Seas!tool.!!!A!list!of!the!maps!produced!after!the!regional!workshops!are!included!in!Box!1!(see!also!Appendix!D).!An!example!of!the!maps!is!shown!in!Figure!2.!The!maps!show!areas!potentially!affected!by!+1!foot!and!+2!feet!of!sea!level!rise!relative!to!the!ordinary!high!tide!(Mean!High!High!Water!mark,!or!MHHW).!A!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!This!storm!surge!level!is!the!approximate!value!of!the!observed!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!36!http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/!37!NOAA!Office!for!Coastal!Management!(https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr.html!

!


1%!annual!probability!water!level!(i.e.,!the!100;year!storm!tide)!for!the!Puget!Sound!region!and!outer!Washington!coast,!excluding!Toke!Point,!and!relative!to!MHHW!(Zervas!200538;!see!also,!NOAA’s!Extreme!Water!Levels!data!set39).!Surge!at!individual!locations!will!vary!slightly!from!this!value;!the!value!for!Toke!Point!is!considerably!higher:!+5.7!feet.!Climate!change!projections!for!storm!surge!are!not!available,!however!higher!sea!level!will!allow!storm!surge!to!reach!further!inland.!!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!;1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).40!A!third!representation!of!potential!sea!level!rise!risk!is!found!by!combining!the!value!of!the!mean!increase!in!sea!level!rise!for!2100!(+2!feet)!with!the!+3!feet!storm!surge!level.!This!combined!value!(+5!feet,!or!+60!inches)!illustrates!areas!that!could!be!permanently!inundated!by!the!current!upper!estimate!for!sea!level!rise!in!2100!(+56!inches).!!!It!is!important!to!remember!that!while!the!maps!are!useful!for!showing!areas!that!are!likely!to!be!permanently!inundated!or!affected!by!higher!surge,!the!maps!are!not!able!to!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing.!These!processes!can!influence!how!sea!level!rise!affects!a!park!by!changing!the!shape!of!a!coastline!over!time!and!altering!sediment!movement!in!the!nearshore.!This!also!means!that!the!size!of!the!projected!inundation/storm!surge!zones!should!not!be!the!sole!determinant!for!interpreting!how!sea!level!rise!affects!parks.!This!is!particularly!true!in!the!Puget!Sound!region,!where!many!beaches!are!narrow!and!backed!by!coastal!bluffs.!See!Appendix!D!for!the!sea!level!rise!maps!and!more!information!on!the!details!included!in!the!maps.!!!!!The!deep!dive!discussions!for!individual!locations!were!fairly!brief!due!to!time!limitations!and!staff!interest!in!looking!at!multiple!sites,!but!the!exercise!proved!beneficial!to!helping!staff!develop!a!better!visualization!of!the!extent!of!sea!level!rise!on!individual!properties!and!specific!pieces!of!infrastructure!that!may!be!affected.!Site;specific!issues!noted!during!the!deep!dive!discussion!included!the!following:!

•! Cama"Beach."Cama!Beach!includes!approximately!50!mid;century!bungalows!(1930s;50s!era)!that!sit!between!10!inches!and!30!inches!above!grade.!The!site!regularly!floods!with!King!Tides.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!38!Zervas,!C.!E.!(2005).!Response!of!extreme!storm!tide!levels!to!long;term!sea!level!change.!In!OCEANS,!2005.!Proceedings!of!MTS/IEEE!(pp.!2501;2506).!IEEE.!

39!https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/est/!40!(NRC)!National!Research!Council!2012.!SeaDLevel"Rise"for"the"Coasts"of"California,"Oregon,"and"Washington:"Past,"Present,"and"Future.!Washington,!DC:!The!National!Academies!Press.!

Box(1.(Northwest!Region!sea!level!rise!maps!produced!based!on!workshop!discussions!!Bay!View!State!Park!Birch!Bay!State!Park!Cama!Beach!State!Park!Camano!Island!State!Park!Dash!Point!State!Park!Deception!Pass!State!Park!Fort!Casey!State!Park!Fort!Ebey!State!Park!Iceberg!Island!State!Park!Jones!Island!State!Park!Joseph!Whidbey!State!Park!Larrabee!State!Park!Lime!Kiln!State!Park!!McMicken!Island!State!Park!Obstruction!Pass!State!Park!Posey!Island!State!Park!Saltwater!State!Park!South!Whidbey!State!Park!Spencer!Spit!State!Park!Turn!Island!State!Park!

!


Figure'2.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Spencer'Spit'State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!J1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!

!


Staff!will!turn!off!pump!stations!when!they!know!there!is!going!to!be!a!high!tide!and!a!storm.!

The!cabins!may!flood!depending!on!water!levels!and!location!but!staff!have!time!to!dry!them!

out!before!the!summer!season.!Higher!amounts!of!sea!level!rise!(starting!around!4!feet)!could!

permanently!inundate!the!cabin!area!but!because!the!structures!and!landscape!are!historic,!the!

agency!would!likely!do!more!to!ensure!use!of!the!site!for!as!long!as!possible!(e.g.,!raising!cabins!

again,!sea!wall).!Development!could!eventually!be!moved!uphill!while!keeping!structures!around!

for!day!use!or!for!historical!perspective.!There!is!a!lot!of!public!interest!in!this!park;!that!public!

interest!may!dictate!how!sea!level!rise!concerns!are!ultimately!handled.!Inundation!could!also!

increase!the!potential!for!slides!from!nearby!bluffs.!Shoreline!and!bluff!erosion!could!expose!

more!archaeological!sites!in!the!park!(e.g.,!tribal!sites,!mammoth!bones),!in!addition!to!affecting!

structures.!

•! Deception!Pass.!Cranberry!Lake!is!an!important!revenue!source!for!the!Northwest!Region;!sea!

level!rise!impacts!on!that!lake!would!be!a!concern.!Deception!Pass!has!had!a!number!of!forest!

health!issues!in!the!campground!area;!a!group!camp!site!was!eliminated!due!to!forest!health!

problems.!!

•! Bowman!Bay.!The!Civilian!Conservation!Corps!museum!appears!to!be!outside!the!area!affected!

by!sea!level!rise.!The!drain!field!for!the!septic!systems!would!be!affected!by!four!feet!of!sea!level!

rise,!however.!!

•! Birch0Bay.0Birch!Bay!may!be!more!susceptible!to!surge!given!its!location.!Birch!Bay!Road!includes!

sewer!and!electrical!lines!to!nearby!communities!outside!the!park.!This!creates!the!potential!for!

coastal!squeeze!between!the!road!and!Puget!Sound!if!there!is!interest!in!protecting!the!road!

because!of!issues!with!access!and!utilities.0

•! Lake0Sammamish.0Lake!Sammamish!State!Park!is!one!of!the!most!heavily!used!parks!in!the!

region.!The!park!is!busy!most!of!the!year!(especially!with!new!playground).!The!big!issues!for!

Lake!Sammamish!are!urbanization!and!flooding!from!Issaquah!Creek.!If!climate!change!results!in!

bigger!and!more!dynamic!floods,!the!new!bathhouse!and!playground!could!be!affected.!Parking!

can!also!be!an!issue.!Most!of!the!park!is!a!wetland.!The!parking!lot!is!near!the!beach!area!and!on!

grass;!the!parking!lot!if!seasonally!closed!because!of!flooding.!The!park!also!has!a!history!of!

swim!beach!closures!(1S2x/summer!for!a!few!days!at!a!time)!due!to!bacteria.!The!cause!of!the!

contamination!is!not!clear!(probably!a!mix!of!reasons)!but!the!beach!is!now!getting!tested!

weekly.!

!

!

!


Table&2.!Preliminary!assessment!of!climate!change!impacts!for!Northwest!Region!parks,!as!identified!and!rated!by!staff!during!the!Northwest!workshop.!

Projected&climate&

change&impacts&

Related&impacts(s)&to&the&region&and/or&individual&

parks!

Ability&to&adjust&& Consequence&

Increasing*temperatures:*•! Warmer!

seasonal!

temperatures!

•! More!extreme!

heat!events!

Warmer!temperatures!can&increase!unauthorized!

use!of!undeveloped!properties!adjacent!to!water!

bodies!(e.g.,!Flaming!Geyser!SP,!Fort!Casey).!

Unregulated!use!is!difficult!to!manage!and!results!in!

problems!with!human!waste,!litter,!and!other!health!

and!safety!issues.!!

Moderately&difficult.!Dealing!with!

unauthorized!use!requires!staffing!that!

the!region!doesn’t!really!have!and!is!

not!able!to!budget!for.!

Moderate.!Consequences!include!

trash,!staffing!issues,!drug!use,!

homelessness,!damage!to!natural!

resources,!and!impacts!on!budget.!!

Warmer!temperatures!can!lead!to&heavier&use&of&

facilities,!trails,!and!other!amenities.!This!includes!

increased!use!of!restrooms!and!septic!systems,!which!

will!require!more!maintenance.!!

Warmer!temperatures!could!lead!to!an&extended&use&

season,!which!would!require!more!staffing!and!more!

parking.!People!may!be!inclined!to!park!in!

unauthorized!areas,!affecting!natural!resources!and!

creating!potential!safety!concerns.!!

Relatively&easy.&Heavier!usage!during!

nicer!weather!is!already!an!issue!that!

the!region!has!to!manage.!&

Low.!If!enough!people!choose!to!

come!to!the!parks,!it!could!even!be!a!

positive!impact!(more!revenue).&

Warmer!temperatures!may!increase!use!of!water!

areas,!requiring!more&public&safety&education&and&

monitoring.!!

Easy.&Staff!already!deal!with!water!and!

public!safety!issues.!

Low&

Warmer!temperatures!could!lead!to!temporary&

closure&of&more!swim&beaches!due!to!fecal!bacteria,!

blueSgreen!algae!toxins,!or!other!contaminants!that!

post!a!health!risk.!Recent!closures!include!Bay!View!

State!Park!(2017)!and!Anderson!Lake!(2016).!

Harvesting!of!butter!clams!and!varnish!clams!at!Dash!

Point!was!closed!due!to!biotoxins.!Staff!noted!that!

the!number!of!closures!and!problems!with!

contaminants!has!been!increasing!over!the!last!few!

decades!but!the!reason!is!unclear.!

N/A& N/A&

Impacts!on!revenue!can!be!

significant!if!closures!occur!at!more!

heavily!used!lakes!(e.g.,!closure!of!

Cranberry!Lake!at!Deception!Pass!

would!cost!the!agency!$7S$10k/day!

during!summer).!!

!


Projected&climate&

change&impacts&


parks!


Impacts*on*snow:*•! Lower!

snowpack!

•! Shorter!snow!season!

•! Changes!in!snow!quality!

are!uncertain!

Lower!snowpack!and!earlier!snowmelt!could&increase&

and/or&shift&the&demand&for&recreational&activities&

such!as!mountain!biking,!offsetting!potential!

recreational!impacts!in!other!seasons!and!at!other!

parks!in!the!region.!!

Easy& Low&

Changes*in*precipitation:*•! Increasing!fall,!

winter,!spring!

precipitation!

•! More!

intense/more!

frequent!heavy!

rain!events!

•! Increased!soil!saturation!in!

winter!!

•! Decreasing!summer!

precipitation!

!

More!winter!precipitation!and!heavier!extreme!

precipitation!events!are&likely&to&lead&to&more&

landslides,&land&movement,&or&sloughing.&These!

issues!are!already!affecting!the!region,!particularly!

this!year.!Staff!noted!that!in!the!last!six!months!they!

have!seen!more!land!movement!than!years!prior.!

This!includes!landslides!at!Saltwater,!Dash!Point,!and!

St.!Edwards!state!park.!As!noted!in!the!interviews,!

two!bungalows!at!Cama!Beach!had!to!be!moved!

because!of!unstable!upslopes.!Washouts!have!also!

occurred!on!trails!at!Olallie!(Twin!Falls!Trail)!and!at!

South!Whidbey!Island!SP.!Camano!Island!road!

washout!(over!a!long!period!of!time).!!!

Hard.&Dealing!with!landslides!and!

related!land!movement!can!be!costly!

and!there!is!often!no!clear!solution.!

The!state!budget!is!set!every!two!years!

but!these!events!can!occur!without!

notice!and!need!immediate!response.!

This!leaves!the!region!scrambling!to!

find!resources!for!geotechnical!reports!

and!permits.!Many!of!the!solutions!are!

temporary;!fixes!could!wash!out!the!

next!year.!Permitting!for!repairs!is!

often!complicated!S!slides!tend!to!

happen!in!areas!that!are!more!difficult!

to!permit!to!begin!with.!

High.!Slides!can!shut!down!of!

facilities,!require!relocation!of!

facilities,!and!impact!access.!Dealing!

with!slides!has!consequences!for!the!

region’s!fiscal!resources!and!staff!

time,!as!noted!in!the!Ability!to!

Adjust!column.!This!can!affect!the!

ability!to!get!other!scheduled!

projects!done.!!

!

Septic&systems&would&be&affected!by!more!

rain/heavier!rain!events.!The!Northwest!Region!has!

numerous!old!septic!systems.!The!tanks!are!taking!in!

stormwater,!which!can!compromise!performance.!

Higher!groundwater!and!more!soil!saturation!could!

exacerbate!this.!May!require!putting!in!more!

composting!toilets!or!moving!facilities!uphill,!which!

can!put!them!farther!away!from!parking!lots!(a!

problem!for!visitors).!

Hard.&Dealing!with!compromised!

septic!systems!is!costly!and!requires!

advance!planning.!In!a!few!cases,!there!

is!the!option!of!hooking!into!municipal!

systems.!In!other!cases,!may!need!to!

put!in!composting!toilets!or!move!

facilities!uphill,!which!can!put!them!

farther!away!from!parking!lots!(a!

problem!for!visitors).&

High.!Failing!septic!systems!can!

create!environmental!issues.!

Solutions!may!affect!visitor!

convenience,!satisfaction.!!

&

!


Projected&climate&

change&impacts&


parks!


More!extreme!precipitation!could&damage&culverts.!

Culverts!can!blow!out!if!not!maintained.!Capacity!is!

already!an!issue!at!Larabee,!Camano,!and!Moran!

state!parks.!Culverts!have!also!washed!out!at!Iron!

Horse!Trail.!!!

Hard.&May!require!redesigning!culverts!

and/or!making!them!larger,!which!is!

costly.!&

High,&given!costs!and!regulatory!

issues!related!to!culverts.!Cultural!

sensitivity!where!culverts!are!on!

fishSbearing!streams.!

Less!summer!precipitation,!combined!with!warmer!

summers!and!declining!snowpack!(where!relevant),!

may&lead&to&water&restrictions,!which!can!affect!the!

ability!to!irrigate!parks!properties!and!overall!water!

supply!issues!for!restrooms!and!other!facilities.!!

Lower!summer!precipitation!could&exacerbate&water&

supply&issues&in&the&San&Juan&Islands&Marine&parks.!

Those!areas!already!have!a!limited!water!supply!

(wells!that!dry!up).!

Relatively!easy.!If!water!restrictions!

affect!irrigation,!staff!can!post!

information!to!raise!public!awareness.!

Parks!is!moving!to!more!composting!

facilities,!especially!in!areas!where!

water!is!more!limited.!Visitors!will!

have!to!bring!water!to!islands!where!

water!supply!becomes!an!issue.!

Low.&Potential!for!more!complaints!

about!brown!grass!(received!many!in!

summer!2015)!but!public!education!

and!signage!will!help.!May!affect!

visits!to!San!Juan!Island!marine!

parks.!!

!

* Other&factors&discussed&but&not&rated:&&•! When!you!have!more!saturated!ground,!you!can!get!more!damage!from!the!same!wind!events!

•! Higher!ground!saturation!can!create!issues!for!underground!electrical!equipment!(an!issue!with!utilities!at!Camano!Island)!

•! Would!higher!winter!precipitation!help!offset!increased!groundwater!usage!in!summer?!Possibly!but!it!depends!on!the!aquifer!

(would!not!help!in!San!Juan!Islands&

Changes*in*hydrology:*•! Higher!winter!

streamflows!

•! Increasing!flood!risk!!

•! Lower,!warmer!

summer!

streamflows!!

•! Longer!summer!low!

flow!period!!

More&winter!flooding&could&damage&parks&facilities,!

creating!additional!work!for!operations!and!

maintenance,!and!require!changes!in!infrastructure!

design!(e.g.,!making!bridges!longer,!bigger!culverts).!

Flooding!can!also!create!temporary!access!problems!

and!cause!erosion!affecting!roads!and!trails.!!

Hard.!Need!financial!resources!to!deal!

with!this.!Damage!may!be!covered!by!

FEMA!in!some!cases,!but!only!as!a!oneS

time!repair.!If!repeat!damage!or!

damage!not!eligible!for!FEMA!funds,!

the!region!has!to!deal!with!the!costs!of!

repair.!Complex!permitting,!design!

considerations.!!

High,!due!to!financial!implications!

and!impacts!on!operations,!visitor!

access.!!

Lower!summer!water!levels!can!affect&summer&

recreation&opportunities&such!as&river!rafting!and!

fishing.!!

Easy& Low!

!


Projected&climate&

change&impacts&


parks!


Changes*in*vegetation:*•! Increased!

drought!stress!

•! Increased!risk!of!wildfire!

•! Impacts!on!

tree!health!

from!insects,!

disease!

Projected!increases!in!seasonal!temperature!and!

more!summer!drought!stress!are!expected!to!

increase&the&risk&of!fire&in&parks.&Northwest!Region!

parks!have!had!fires!in!isolated!areas!at!Deception!

Pass,!Ft.!Ebey,!Hope!and!Jones!Islands,!and!the!Index!

climbing!wall.!An!increased!forest!fire!risk!can!lead!to!

more!frequent!or!more!prolonged!burn!bans,!

affecting!camper!experiences!at!the!park.!If/when!a!

fire!occurs,!park!use!and!access!are!affected,!

ultimately!impacting!revenue.!Any!fires!require!a!

firstSline!response!by!Parks!staff!until!other!services!

arrive!and!restoration!postSfire.!

Moderately&difficult.&Addressing!an!

increasing!risk!of!fire!requires!more!

proactive!forest!fuel!reduction.!!

Medium.&Consequences!are!mostly!

revenue!related;!revenue!can!be!

affected!is!visits!decrease.!Parks!is!

also!selfSinsured!so!there!is!no!

insurance!to!recover!costs!if!you!lose!

a!building.!The!agency!can!get!push!

back!from!the!public!when!removing!

trees!for!forest!health!and!fuel!

reduction!(public!sensitivity!to!

removing!trees!from!parks).!

Projected!increases!in!seasonal!temperature!and!

more!summer!drought!stress!are!expected!to!leave!

more&trees&vulnerable&to&insects,&diseases,&or&

pathogens&that&compromise&tree&health.!This!could!

lead!to!more!campground!closures!(e.g.,!South!

Whidbey!State!Park),!diseased!tree!removal!(e.g.,!

removal!at!Moran!State!Park!due!to!laminated!root!

rot),!and!impacts!on!ecological!function!and!the!

landscape!of!parks.!In!general,!there!will!be!an!

increased!need!for!active!forest!management!as!

changes!occur.!Two!tree!fallSrelated!fatalities!have!

occurred!in!the!parks!system!stateSwide!in!recent!

years!(Lake!Wenatchee!and!South!Whidbey.)!

Easy,&assuming&funding!is!available.!

Parks!staff!are&already!actively!

engaged!in!managing!tree!health.!

More!active!management!will!be!

required!but!the!people!and!systems!

are!in!place.!&

Medium.!Consequences!include!

potential!public!safety!issues;!the!

opportunity!cost!of!having!to!spend!

more!on!tree!management!(that!

funding!is!not!going!to!other!uses).!

Park!appearance!can!affect!ability!to!

make!revenue;!lots!of!diseased!trees!

or!aggressive!thinning!to!manage!

risk!could!run!up!against!public!and!

political!pressure!and!the!

expectation!that!Parks!is!a!steward!

of!the!natural!resources!in!parks.&

!


Projected&climate&

change&impacts&


parks!


& Projected!increases!in!seasonal!temperature!and!

changes!in!precipitation!could&facilitate&the&spread&of&

nonOnative&invasive&species,&although!the!response!

of!individual!invasives!will!vary!(some!may!benefit!

from!changing!conditions!while!others!may!not).!

NonSnative!invasive!species!are!becoming!more!of!an!

issue!stateSwide,!particularly!along!linear!trails!that!

run!near!farmlands!and!other!private!property.!There!

are!public!expectations!that!Parks!will!keep!invasive!

species!from!spreading!onto!adjoining!public!lands.!

More!nonSnative!invasive!species!require!more!

weeding!and!higher!property!management!costs.!!

Moderate&to&hard.!While!Parks!has!

experience!with!managing!nonSnative!

invasive!species,!there!is!increased!

focus!on!the!issue,!new!areas!affected,!

and!not!a!lot!of!resources!to!address!

the!problem.!Have!had!good!responses!

from!volunteer!groups!to!help!out.&

High.&Funds!spent!on!more!nonS

native!invasive!species!management!

are!not!going!to!other!uses.!NonS

native!invasive!species!can!impact!

the!ecological!function!and!

landscape!of!the!park.!There!is!

strong!public!and!political!pressure!

to!eliminate!the!invasives;!there!is!a!

legal!responsibility!(codified)!S!if!you!

have!nonSnative!invasives,!you!need!

to!be!actively!removing!it.!Deferred!

maintenance!can!create!more!

pressure!to!use!herbicides,!which!is!

not!the!preference.&

Sea&level&rise:!•! Increased!

coastal!

flooding!

•! Increased!surge,!wave!

energy!!

•! Increased!erosion!

•! Inundation!of!lowSlying!areas!

•! Increased!saltwater!

intrusion!in!

groundwater!

wells,!septic!

•! Changes!in!nearshore!

habitat!

Sea!level!rise!is!likely!to!result!in!a!variety!of!impacts!

depending!on!how!much!and!how!quickly!sea!level!

rises.!Noted!impacts!include!the!following:!!

•! Loss&of&lowOlying&park&lands,!including!beaches,!to!permanent!inundation!

•! Access&to&facilities&may&be&disrupted!and!lowS

lying!parking&lots&may&become&unusable!for!

longer!periods!of!time!with!higher!high!tides.!!

•! LowOlying&facilities&may&be&damaged!by!higher!

tides,!storm!surge!(already!an!issue!at!Cama!Beach!

SP,!Spencer!Spit,!Bayview).!

•! Increased!surge,!wave!energy,!and!erosion!could&expose&more&archaeological&deposits,&increasing!

stewardship!responsibilities.!

•! Septic&systems&could&be&affected!by!higher!sea!

level!and!increased!ground!saturation!!

•! Saltwater&intrusion,!which!is!already!a!problem!on!

Lopez!Island!at!Spencer!Spit,!could&become&more&

of&an&issue,!especially!in!the!San!Juan!Islands.!!

•! On!the!positive!side,!sea!level!rise!may!result!in!

more!opportunities&to&create&new&wetland&areas!

Hard.!Dealing!with!the!impacts!of!sea!

level!rise!will!be!expensive.!Parks!can!

raise!docks!and!boat!launches!but!

there!are!limits!to!how!much!

infrastructure!can!be!raised!given!the!

need!to!ensure!access!that!is!

compliant!with!the!Americans!with!

Disabilities!Act!requirements.!!

!

!

High.!Sea!level!rise!will!affect!a!lot!of!

Northwest!Region!properties!and!

what!people!can!do!at!those!

properties!(due!to!potential!limits!

on!access).!!!

!

Appendix!A:!Southwest!Region!Workshop!Summary!!! Page!64!

Appendix(A:(Southwest(Region(Vulnerability(Assessment(Workshop(Summary(((Prepared(by(((Harriet(Morgan,(Lara(Whitely(Binder,(and(Dan(Siemann(University(of(Washington(Climate(Impacts(Group(!!!!

!((( (

!


Overview(of(Southwest(Region(Parks(The!Southwest!Region!includes!more!than!83!state!parks!located!predominantly!in!southwest!Washington!and!western!Puget!Sound!(Figure!1).41!The!Southwest!Region!includes!Cape!Disappointment!State!Park,!home!to!the!oldest!operating!lighthouse!in!the!Pacific!Northwest!and!the!terminus!of!Lewis!and!Clark’s!1803!expedition!to!the!West.42!The!region!also!includes!the!Seashore!Conservation!Area,!which!was!created!in!1967!to!preserve!public!access!to!undeveloped!Pacific!Coast!shoreline.!The!area!protects!publiclyTowned!beaches!up!to!the!ordinary!high!tide!line!from!the!south!boundary!of!the!Quinault!Indian!Nation!Reservation!on!the!Olympic!Peninsula!to!the!mouth!of!the!Columbia!River.43!!Near!term!(1T2!years)!priorities!noted!by!Southwest!Region!staff!are!largely!centered!around!maintaining!and!replacing!existing!Parks!facilities!where!necessary.!About!30%!of!Region’s!effort!is!spent!working!on!new!projects!and!development.!Replacing!and!updating!facilities!is!important!and!necessary!for!ensuring!that!Park!facilities!are!in!agreement!with!existing!regulatory!compliance!regulations!(e.g.,!ADA!requirements).!Regional!staff!are!also!continuing!to!address!staffing!issues.!Emphasis!is!on!staff!retention!and,!when!possible,!increasing!staffing.!More!generally,!Parks!staff!are!continuing!to!focus!on!providing!good!customer!service!to!parks!visitors!and!ensuring!natural!and!historical!resource!preservation!and!protection.!

(Key(Findings(for(the(Southwest(Region(Input!on!how!climate!change!could!affect!Southwest!Region!parks!was!solicited!through!a!preTworkshop!interview!with!two!staff!members!and!a!workshop!with!Southwest!Region!staff!on!May!22,!2017.!The!preTworkshop!interview!provided!an!opportunity!to!learn!more!about!the!region!and!initial!staff!thoughts!on!regionTspecific!climate!impacts.!Additional!staff!with!responsibilities!in!management,!planning,!operations,!and!stewardship!participated!in!the!workshop!(seven!participants!in!total).!!!The!workshop!began!with!an!overview!of!the!project’s!origins,!objectives,!scope,!and!outcomes.!The!morning!also!included!presentations!on!projected!climate!change!impacts!in!the!Southwest!Region!and!highlights!from!the!preTworkshop!interviews.!Projected!climate!change!impacts!include:!!

•! Increasing!seasonal!temperatures!and!more!extreme!heat!events;!•! Decreasing!snowpack;!•! Changes!in!precipitation,!e.g.,!increasing!cool!season!precipitation!and!decreasing!summer!

precipitation;!more!intense!extreme!precipitation;!increased!risk!of!landslides);!!•! Changes!in!forest!health!and!fire!risk;!and!!•! Sea!level!rise.!

A!detailed!summary!of!projected!changes!for!the!Southwest!Region!is!included!in!Appendix!B.!More!on!the!preTworkshop!interview!and!project!methodology!is!included!in!Section!2!of!the!assessment!report.!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!41!Park!counts!based!on!GIS!data.!42!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission,!http://parks.state.wa.us/486/CapeTDisappointment!!43!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission,!http://parks.state.wa.us/DocumentCenter/Home/View/1524!!

!


!

Region(wide!Discussion!Staff!were!asked!to!discuss!how!different!climate!change!impacts!could!affect!properties,!infrastructure,!and!operations!in!the!Southwest!Region.!For!each!impact!identified,!staff!rated!1)!the!ability!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!the!impact!(assuming!normal!resources!and!authorities),!and!2)!the!consequence!of!the!impact,!taking!into!account!the!ability!to!adjust!(Table!1).!Where!relevant,!parks!where!specific!!

Figure!1.!Washington!State!Parks,!Southwest!Region.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!

!


Table!1.!Adjustment!and!consequence!rating!keys!for!rating!climate!change!impacts.!

!impacts!may!be!an!issue!were!noted.!After!discussing!the!range!of!impacts!relevant!to!the!Southwest!Region,!staff!were!asked!to!identify!the!top!three!impacts!that!are!likely!to!be!most!important!to!the!Southwest!Region.!Those!were:!

•! Sea!level!rise!and!related!coastal!hazards!(e.g.,!coastal!flooding,!erosion,!storm!surge,!and!permanent!inundating),!!!

•! Changes!in!wildfire!risk,!forest!health,!and!nonTnative!invasive!species,!and!!!•! Changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology!(e.g.,!extreme!precipitation,!increased!flooding,!and!a!

higher!risk!of!landslides).!

More!information!on!these!issues!and!the!range!of!issues!discussed!by!staff!during!the!workshop!is!summarized!below!and!in!Table!2!at!the!end!of!this!chapter.!!!!Sea!Level!Rise!and!Related!Impacts!Staff!considered!sea!level!rise!and!related!hazards!exacerbated!by!sea!level!rise!(coastal!flooding,!erosion,!storm!surge,!and!permanent!inundating)!a!top!concern!that!is!both!hard!to!adapt!to!and!high!consequence!given!the!large!number!of!Southwest!Region!parks!located!on!the!shoreline!and!the!potential!costs!associated!with!adapting!to!sea!level!rise.!Potential!impacts!noted!by!staff!include:!!

•! increased!shoreline!flooding!and!permanent!inundation!of!lowTlying!areas,!!•! potential!closures!of!parks,!facilities,!or!campsites!due!to!flooding!or!inundation,!!•! increased!erosion,!which!could!lead!to!trail!loss!and/or!reduced!beach!access,!!

Ability!to

!Adjust!

Easy!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“a!blip”)!

Moderately!difficult!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“this!would!be!a!hassle,!but!we!could!deal!with!it”)!!

Hard!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“this!would!be!a!big!problem”)!




!

Conseq

uence!

Low!consequence!(“a!blip”)!

Moderate!Consequence!(“this!would!affect!us!in!a!meaningful!way,!but!we!could!deal!with!it”)!

High!Consequence!(“this!would!be!a!major!issue!for!our!program”)!




!

!


•! higher!storm!surge!reach,!•! more!marine!debris!on!park!roads,!beaches,!and!parking!lots,!and!•! an!increased!risk!of!saltwater!intrusion!into!wells.!

Parks!identified!as!likely!to!be!inundated!by!staff!during!the!workshop!included!Bottle!Beach,!Cape!Disappointment,!Twin!Harbors,!and!Grayland!Beach!State!Park.!Specific!facilities!in!Dosewallips!and!Potlatch!state!park!are!also!likely!to!be!affected!by!sea!level!rise.!!!Options!for!moving!lowTlying!facilities!to!higher!locations!may!be!limited!and!can!be!expensive,!particularly!for!historical!structures.!Staff!noted!that!historical!facilities!and!cultural!sites!at!many!Puget!Sound!parks!are!already!threatened!by!erosion!and!storm!surge.!Examples!include!Kitsap!Memorial,!Potlatch,!Belfair,!Manchester,!and!Fort!Worden!state!parks.!!Erosion!and!coastal!bluff!sloughing!has!also!been!an!issue!at!southwest!parks.!For!example,!bluff!sloughing!events!have!occurred!at!Blake!Island,!Kopachuck,!and!Sequim!Bay!state!parks;!erosion!has!affected!Manchester!and!Fort!Worden!state!parks.!In!some!cases,!these!sloughing!and!erosion!events!have!limited!or!blocked!access!to!beaches!and!trails.!Staff!noted!that!that!some!trails!at!Kopachuck!State!Park!are!slowly!falling!into!Puget!Sound!as!a!result!of!bluff!erosion.!Parks!has!made!significant!efforts!to!mitigate!the!effects!of!erosion;!however,!erosion!continues!to!be!a!problem.!!!Replacing!and!maintaining!shoreline!protection!structures!to!address!inundation!and!erosion!risks!can!be!difficult!and!costly.!Switching!to!alternatives!like!soft!shore!armoring!could!be!problematic!for!facilities!and!parking!lots!close!to!the!shorelines!(e.g.,!Sequim!Bay!State!Park).!Additionally,!Parks!would!be!liable!if!an!armoring!structure!negatively!affects!an!adjacent!landowner.!!Adapting!park!water!supplies!affected!by!saltwater!intrusion!would!also!be!difficult.!Depending!on!location,!the!ability!to!hook!into!alternative!uncontaminated!water!sources!may!be!limited.!This!may!require!limiting!operations!or!closing!facilities!where!issues!cannot!be!resolved.!Belfair!State!Park!and!other!parks!along!Hood!Canal!are!more!likely!to!experience!these!challenges!relative!to!other!Southwest!Region!parks.!!Changes!in!Wildfire!Risk,!Forest!Health,!and!NonGNative!Invasive!Species!!The!next!set!of!concerns!considered!hard!to!adjust!to!and!high!consequence!were!projected!changes!in!wildfire!risk!and!tree!health,!and!the!potential!for!more!nonTnative!invasive!species.!As!air!temperatures!rise!and!summer!precipitation!declines,!tree!populations!are!likely!to!become!drier!and!more!stressed,!increasing!their!susceptibility!to!drought,!disease,!and!wildfire.!Specific!insects!and!diseases!of!concern!include!laminated!root!rot,!annosus!root!rot,!cow!pie!fungus,!and!Phellinus!pini!(stem!rot).!Fires!have!occurred!at!Beacon!Rock!and!other!parks.!!!Trees!damaged!by!disease!or!wildfire!can!become!a!safety!risk!to!visitors!as!the!trees!start!to!drop!branches!or!fall.!This!may!require!heavy!pruning!or!closing!campgrounds!or!day!use!areas,!as!has!been!required!at!Kopachuck,!Schafer,!and!Twin!Harbors!state!parks.!Addressing!changes!in!tree!health!would!require!additional!staff!training!to!ensure!that!staff!can!identify!diseased!or!infested!trees.!It!will!also!require!being!more!proactive!rather!than!reactionary.!For!example,!emphasis!can!be!placed!on!treating!the!entire!disturbance!agent,!not!just!removing!the!dead!trees.!These!approaches!would!require!

!


devoting!more!staff!time!to!forest!health,!which!would!be!challenging!without!additional!staff!and!resources.!Increased!fire!frequency!would!also!require!more!staff!time!as!Parks!staff!are!the!first!responders!to!fires!on!Parks!lands.!!Staff!also!highlighted!the!increased!threat!of!nonTnative!invasive!species!as!“hard!to!adjust!to”!and!“high!consequence.”!While!nonTnatives!are!already!an!issue!that!the!Southwest!Region!must!manage,!staff!noted!that!it!would!be!challenging!to!increase!the!amount!of!staff!time!devoted!to!preventing,!identifying,!and!removing!areas!of!nonTnative!invasive!species!given!limited!staff!time!and!resources.!This!need!could!run!counter!to!an!ongoing!public!expectation!(and!legal!requirement)!that!Parks!will!identify!and!remove!stateTlisted!noxious!weeds!to!reduce!spread!to!adjacent!nonTParks!properties.!If!not!addressed,!more!nonTnative!invasive!species!could!degrade!habitat!and!affect!relations!with!adjoining!property!owners.!!!Changes!in!Precipitation!and!Hydrology!!The!third!most!important!set!of!impacts!for!the!Southwest!Region,!according!to!staff,!were!impacts!associated!with!more!winter!precipitation,!more!extreme!precipitation,!increased!flooding,!and!a!higher!risk!of!landslides.!Staff!ranked!these!impacts!as!moderately!difficult!to!adjust!to!and!moderate!consequence.!!!Increased!winter!flooding!could!cause!more!extensive!damage!to!park!facilities!and!amenities,!including!trails,!bridges,!and!campgrounds.!This!may!result!in!more!frequent!campsite!closures,!reduced!access,!and!higher!operating!and!maintenance!costs!for!Parks.!For!example,!Chehalis!River!flooding!in!December!2007!destroyed!a!$1!million44!!foot!and!vehicle!entrance!bridge!at!Rainbow!Falls!State!Park!when!the!bridge!was!struck!by!woody!debris!and!a!dislodged!park!footbridge!carried!downriver!by!floodwaters!(AECOM!2012).!A!water!line!serving!the!park!was!also!destroyed.!The!damage!closed!the!park!completely!for!almost!six!months!and!severed!the!northern!and!southern!parts!of!the!park,!effectively!closing!off!access!to!the!south!end!of!the!park.45!Other!parks!in!the!Southwest!Region!that!have!closed!campsites!due!to!flooding!include!Potlatch,!Belfair,!Dosewallips,!Ocean!City,!Twin!Harbors,!and!Grayland!Beach!state!parks.!Flooding!is!also!a!problem!at!Schafer!State!Park!(campsites!flood!annually).!!!Adapting!to!more!flooding!may!require!moving!campsites!to!higher!elevation,!as!is!being!done!at!Schafer!State!Park.!However,!these!moves!can!be!unpopular!with!visitors;!the!public!enjoys!camping!near!rivers!or!the!shoreline.!!!The!potential!for!more!landslides!is!a!concern!given!how!ubiquitous!steep!slopes!are!in!the!Southwest!Region!park!system.!Landslides!can!directly!damage!or!block!access!to!parks,!trails,!beaches,!and!facilities.!Rerouting!trails!and!roads!and!replacing!or!repairing!infrastructure!can!be!expensive.!Sequim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!44!“Rainbow!Falls!State!Park!Back!Open!Today”,!The!Chronicle,!May!23,!2008,!!http://www.chronline.com/news/article_ab157cf8T134dT5f10Taca5Teee723edd1c8.html!!45!AECOM!2012.!Final!Environmental!Assessment:!Rainbow!Falls!State!Park!Entrance!Project!Lewis!County,!Washington.!FEMAT1734TDRTWA!(Public!Assistance).!Prepared!by!AECOM!for!the!U.S.!Department!of!Homeland!Security,!FEMA!Region!X.!Available!at:!https://www.fema.gov/mediaTlibraryTdata/20130726T1831T25045T9010/rainbow_falls_sp_final_ea.pdf!!

!


Bay,!Manchester,!and!Lake!Sylvia!state!parks!are!currently!experiencing!landslide!issues.!Access!to!Cape!Disappointment!was!cut!off!by!a!landslide!as!well.!!Another!concern!related!to!more!cool!season!(fall,!winter,!spring)!precipitation!is!the!potential!impact!on!construction.!The!construction!window!for!projects!could!shrink!if!conditions!are!too!wet,!a!problem!that!has!already!been!an!issue!in!the!region!according!to!preTworkshop!staff!interviews.!This!may!require!moving!some!construction!projects!to!the!summer!months,!when!visitation!rates!are!at!their!highest,!or!closing!parks!if!maintenance!issues!are!not!addressed!in!time!to!accommodate!visitor!use.!While!the!ability!to!adjust!was!considered!moderate,!staff!rated!the!consequences!as!high.!Offseason!camping!could!also!be!reduced,!but!this!was!a!low!concern!relative!to!other!impacts.!!!!!Potential!issues!with!summer!water!supply!were!also!discussed.!Warmer!temperatures!and!more!extreme!heat!events!increase!the!chance!of!water!supply!interruptions!if!wells!going!dry!or!if!water!supplies!at!parks!with!junior!water!rights!are!curtailed.!Parks!dependent!on!local!municipal!water!suppliers!could!see!also!supplies!interrupted!if!municipal!water!supplies!are!strained!due!to!drought!(water!to!parks!could!be!the!first!place!to!cut!to!conserve!supplies!for!other!uses).!Inadequate!water!supplies!could!require!trucking!water!to!affected!parks!or!force!temporary!closure;!staff!noted!that!these!issues!would!not!be!that!difficult!to!adapt!to!if!limited!in!scale.!If!the!problem!becomes!more!widespread!in!the!region,!however,!the!ability!to!adjust!would!become!more!difficult!and!the!consequences!would!increase.!!!!Other!Impacts!Discussed!

Southwest!Region!staff!identified!a!range!of!potential!issues!associated!with!increasing!temperatures,!including!the!potential!for!more!park!visitors!in!the!shoulder!seasons!(spring,!fall)!and!during!extreme!heat!events!(see!Table!2!for!details).!Parks!with!water!features!are!most!likely!to!see!higher!visitation!rates!during!those!extreme!heat!events.!The!strain!on!parking!facilities!would!also!increase.!Warming!temperatures!may!also!shift!regional!patterns!of!park!visits.!For!example,!warming!may!increase!the!number!of!people!traveling!from!eastern!Washington!(where!people!may!consider!it!too!hot)!to!visit!parks!west!of!the!Cascades.!!

The!impacts!of!warming!stream!and!lake!temperatures!on!recreational!fishing!and!water!quality!issues!related!to!algal!blooms!and!bacteria!were!also!discussed.!As!water!temperatures!increase,!the!amount!of!habitat!suitable!for!salmon!is!likely!to!go!down!while!habitat!suitable!for!bass!increases.!This!could!affect!recreation!opportunities!and!incur!high!ecological!consequences.!!

Algal!blooms!in!lakes!are!a!concern!because!of!the!potential!consequence!to!human!health!prior!to!detection.!Warmer!temperatures!during!summer!can!increase!algal!bloom!issues!in!lakes.!If!specific!algal!thresholds!are!reached,!Parks!is!required!to!close!recreational!access!to!the!affected!lakes.!Staff!noted!that!Anderson!Lake!State!Park!currently!experiences!algal!blooms.!!

Similarly,!warmer!summer!water!temperatures!can!increase!the!potential!for!Vibrio!outbreaks!in!coastal!areas,!lakes,!rivers,!and!streams,!particularly!in!the!southern!Hood!Canal!region.!Vibrio!outbreaks!may!require!shutting!down!swimming!or!shellfish!harvest!areas;!however,!staff!noted!that!they!have!not!seen!any!reductions!in!park!use!where!those!closures!occur,!so!the!impact!is!easy!to!adapt!to.!!!

!


!“Deep!Dive”!Discussion!

After!discussing!climate!change!impacts!on!Southwest!Region!properties,!infrastructure,!and!operations!by!the!drivers!of!those!impacts!(e.g.,!increasing!temperatures,!changes!in!precipitation,!etc.),!regional!staff!selected!a!limited!number!of!individual!parks!for!discussion!on!climate!change!impacts!at!individual!locations.!The!decisions!on!which!sites!to!review!for!the!siteTspecific!discussions!were!made!during!the!workshop.!Coastal!sites!likely!to!be!affected!by!sea!level!rise!were!of!particular!interest!to!staff.!!!!Climate!Central’s!“Surging!Seas!Risk!Zone!Map”46!was!used!to!examine!how!different!amounts!of!sea!level!rise!could!affect!individual!parks.!The!online!tool!gives!users!the!ability!to!enter!a!specific!location!and!view!sea!level!rise!inundation!zones!associated!with!up!to!10!feet!of!sea!level!rise!in!one!foot!increments.!As!a!readyTtoTuse!online!desktopTtool,!the!Risk!Zone!Map!tool!provided!maximum!flexibility!to!view!any!park!requested!by!staff!without!having!to!map!all!parks!in!advance.!However,!the!tool!does!not!allow!users!to!integrate!their!own!GIS!information!into!the!results.!The!project!team!subsequently!mapped!sea!level!rise!for!a!select!set!of!locations,!based!on!workshop!discussions!and!additional!staff!input,!using!State!Parks!GIS!data!and!the!NOAA!sea!level!rise!data47!used!in!the!Surging!Seas!tool.!!!A!list!of!the!maps!produced!after!the!workshop!are!included!in!Box!1!(see!also!Box!2!regarding!issues!related!to!mapping!outer!coast!parks).!An!example!of!the!maps!is!shown!in!Figure!2!(see!Appendix!D!for!maps).!The!sea!level!rise!maps!show!areas!potentially!affected!by!+1!foot!and!+2!feet!of!sea!level!rise!relative!to!the!ordinary!high!tide!(Mean!High!High!Water!mark,!or!MHHW).!A!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!This!storm!surge!level!is!the!approximate!value!of!the!observed!1%!annual!probability!water!level!(i.e.,!the!100Tyear!storm!tide)!for!the!Puget!Sound!region!and!outer!Washington!coast,!excluding!Toke!Point,!and!relative!to!MHHW!(Zervas!200548;!see!also,!NOAA’s!Extreme!Water!Levels!data!set49).!Surge!at!individual!locations!will!vary!slightly!from!this!value;!the!value!for!Toke!Point!is!considerably!higher:!+5.7!feet.!Climate!change!projections!for!storm!surge!are!not!available;!however,!higher!sea!level!will!allow!storm!surge!to!reach!further!inland.!!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!T1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).50!A!third!representation!of!potential!sea!level!rise!risk!is!found!by!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!46!http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/!47!NOAA!Office!for!Coastal!Management!(https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr.html!48!Zervas,!C.!E.!(2005).!Response!of!extreme!storm!tide!levels!to!longTterm!sea!level!change.!In!OCEANS,!2005.!Proceedings!of!MTS/IEEE!(pp.!2501T2506).!IEEE.!

49!https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/est/!50!(NRC)!National!Research!Council!2012.!SeaGLevel!Rise!for!the!Coasts!of!California,!Oregon,!and!Washington:!Past,!Present,!and!Future.!Washington,!DC:!The!National!Academies!Press.!

Box!1.!Southwest!Region!sea!level!rise!maps!produced!based!on!workshop!discussions!!Belfair!State!Park!Blake!Island!State!Park!Bottle!Beach!State!Park!Dosewallips!State!Park!Fort!Flagler!State!Park!Fort!Worden!State!Park!Illahee!State!Park!Kopachuck!State!Park!Manchester!State!Park!Potlach!State!Park!Scenic!Beach!State!Park!Tolmie!State!Park!Twanoh!State!Park!

!


combining!the!value!of!the!mean!increase!in!sea!level!rise!for!2100!(+2!feet)!with!the!+3!feet!storm!surge!level.!This!combined!value!(+5!feet,!or!+60!inches)!illustrates!areas!that!could!be!permanently!inundated!by!the!current!upper!estimate!for!sea!level!rise!in!2100!(+56!inches).! !

!


Figure'2.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Bottle!Beach!State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!K1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!

!


It!is!important!to!remember!that!while!the!maps!are!useful!for!showing!areas!that!are!likely!to!be!

permanently!inundated!or!affected!by!higher!surge,!the!maps!are!not!able!to!capture!the!dynamic!

effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing.!These!processes!can!influence!how!sea!level!rise!affects!a!

park!by!changing!the!shape!of!a!coastline!over!time!and!altering!sediment!movement!in!the!nearshore.!

This!also!means!that!the!size!of!the!projected!inundation/storm!surge!zones!should!not!be!the!sole!

determinant!for!interpreting!how!sea!level!rise!affects!parks.!This!is!particularly!true!in!the!Puget!Sound!

region,!where!many!beaches!are!narrow!and!backed!by!coastal!bluffs.!

!

The!deep!dive!discussions!for!individual!locations!were!fairly!brief!due!to!time!limitations!and!staff!

interest!in!looking!at!multiple!sites,!but!the!exercise!proved!beneficial!to!helping!staff!develop!a!better!

visualization!of!the!extent!of!sea!level!rise!on!individual!properties!and!specific!pieces!of!infrastructure!

that!may!be!affected.!SiteHspecific!issues!noted!during!the!deep!dive!discussion!included!the!following:!

•! Manchester*State*Park.*The!largest!concern!for!this!park!is!related!to!erosion!and!wave!action!on!the!north!side!of!the!park.!With!4!feet!of!sea!level!rise,!road!access!to!structures!within!the!

Manchester!State!Park!are!inundated.!However,!staff!noted!that!they!were!not!particularly!

concerned!about!the!impacts!of!sea!level!rise!to!Manchester!State!Park!because!the!park’s!

campsites!and!major!facilities!are!not!directly!affected!according!to!the!Surging!Seas!Risk!Zone!

Map.!The!facilities!that!do!fall!within!the!inundation!area!on!the!mapping!tool!are!not!unique!or!

of!historical!significance,!and!are!therefore!of!lower!priority.!!

•! Blake*Island*State*Park.!Sea!level!rise!would!increase!erosion!rates!and!inundate!coastal!areas!of!the!park.!Of!particular!importance!is!the!inundation!of!the!marina!area!and!the!dayHuse!area!

with!heavy!dayHuse!activity.!Blake!Island!State!Park!is!considered!a!unique!area,!and!therefore!

the!potential!inundation!of!popular!dayHuse!areas!was!of!concern!to!the!Southwest!Region!staff.!!

•! Ocean*City*State*Park.!This!park!currently!experiences!standing!water!issues!in!areas!where!swales!are!present.!Interestingly,!staff!noted!that!Ocean!City!State!Park!currently!experiences!

more!extensive!flooding!(during!heavy!rain!events)!than!what!is!shown!on!the!Surging!Seas!Risk!

Zone!Map!(see!Box!2).!Ocean!City!State!Park!is!largely!in!a!buffer!zone!due!to!the!presence!of!

wetlands!on!the!eastside!of!the!park.!Parks!is!looking!into!additional!development!at!this!park,!

Box$2.$A!Note!About!Mapping!Sea!Level!Rise!for!the!Outer!Coast!Beach!Parks!!

In!mapping!the!sea!level!rise!inundation!zones!for!Ocean!City!State!Park,!the!project!team!

discovered!a!discrepancy!in!how!the!DEM!vertical!datum!and!tidal!datum!(which!is!used!to!

determine!the!boundaries!of!the!Mean!High!High!Water!mark)!aligned!for!the!park.!The!problem,!

which!originates!in!the!underlying!NOAA!sea!level!rise!data,!results!in!an!incorrect!placement!of!

the!sea!level!rise!zones!relative!to!the!shore.!The!finding!is!consistent!with!staff!comments!during!

the!workshop!suggesting!that!the!map!was!underHrepresenting!the!projected!reach!of!the!

inundation!zones,!even!at!very!high!levels.!The!issue!for!Ocean!City!State!Park!and!how!far!it!

extended!down!the!outer!coast!beach!areas!was!unresolvable!before!the!conclusion!of!the!

project.!As!a!result,!no!sea!level!rise!maps!for!beach!areas!on!the!outer!coast!were!mapped.!The!

one!exception!to!this!outer!coast!exclusion!was!Bottle!Beach!State!Park,!which!is!located!on!the!

south!end!of!Grays!Harbor.!!

!

!


and!this!prompted!discussion!of!whether!it!is!logical!to!develop!in!the!park!given!the!inundation!

shown!on!the!Surging!Seas!Map,!or!whether!there!are!alternative!development!strategies!would!

increase!this!park’s!resilience!to!sea!level!rise!(e.g.,!movable!structures.!This!mapping!exercise!

also!motivated!a!discussion!of!how!much!effort!should!be!placed!into!protecting!facilities!and!

property!in!the!projected!inundation!zone.!Staff!noted!the!need!for!guidelines!on!when!to!

protect!and!when!to!walk!away!from!a!site.!!

•! Twanoh*State*Park.!The!Southwest!Region!is!actively!working!on!a!restoration!project!in!Twanoh!State!Park,!which!involves!removing!some!of!the!shoreline!armoring!in!the!area!and!focusing!on!

shoreline!restoration.!Sea!level!rise!will!likely!have!implications!for!this!restoration!project.!This!

state!park!also!contains!many!historic!sites!(e.g.,!park!buildings!built!in!the!1930s!by!the!Civilian!

Conservation!Corps),!which!would!likely!be!inundated!with!sea!level!rise.!While!these!buildings!

could!potentially!be!moved!to!higher!ground!or!further!from!the!shorelines,!this!relocation!

would!destroy!the!integrity!of!the!cultural!landscape,!which!is!largely!intact.!!

•! Westport*Light*State*Park.!This!park!has!experienced!significant!losses!from!beach!erosion!near!

the!South!Jetty.!The!US!Army!Corps!of!Engineers!have!filled!eroded!coastal!regions!of!this!park!

with!dredged!material!twice!in!the!past!25!years.!This!park!will!likely!continue!to!experience!

erosion!issues!with!sea!level!rise.!!

•! Dosewallips*State*Park.!This!park!already!experiences!significant!flooding!issues!from!the!

adjacent!Dosewallips!River.!After!examining!the!Surging!Seas!Risk!Zone!Map,!regional!staff!

determined!that!dayHuse!park!areas!would!be!affected!by!saltwater!inundation!and!that!the!

majority!of!the!campsites!would!not!be!affected!by!rising!seas,!but!will!likely!still!be!affected!by!

flooding!of!the!Dosewallips!River.!!

!

!

Appendix!A:!Southwest!Workshop!Summary! ! Page!76!

Table&2.!Preliminary!assessment!of!climate!change!impacts!for!Southwest!Region!parks,!as!identified!and!rated!by!staff!during!the!Southwest!workshop.!

Climate&change&impact&drivers&

Related&impacts(s)&to&the&region&and/or&individual&parks!



seasonal!temperatures!

•! More!extreme!heat!events*

Warmer!temperatures!and!more!extreme!heat!events!may&increase&park&use&in&the&region&and&shift&regional&visitation&patterns.!For!example,!warmer!temperatures!during!shoulder!seasons!(i.e.,!spring!and!fall)!could!increase!use!during!those!seasons!and!more!extreme!heat!events!could!increase!visits!to!parks!with!water!features!(e.g.,!lakes).!Increasing!summer!visits!would!put!an!additional!strain!on!parking!facilities.!These!stresses!would!be!compounded!when!extreme!heat!events!occur!on!days!of!peak!visitation!(e.g.,!holiday!weekends).!Warming!may!also!increase!the!number!of!people!traveling!from!eastern!Washington!(where!people!may!consider!it!too!hot)!to!visit!parks!west!of!the!Cascades.!!

Moderate.!Parks!in!the!Southwest!Region!are!already!at!capacity!during!summer!months.!More!visitors!during!shoulder!seasons!would!require!shifting!park!staffing!levels,!or!hiring!seasonal!staff!for!a!longer!season.!Increased!use!during!shoulder!seasons!would!also!result!in!more!wear!and!tear!on!facilities,!trails,!and!lawns.!Parks!may!need!to!develop!more!water!recreation!activities!(e.g.,!lake!recreation).!!

Moderate&to&High.&Increased!park!use!will!generate!more!revenue;!however,!it!also!increases!staffing!needs!and!operations!and!maintenance!costs!(e.g.,!for!water!and!sewer!maintenance).!If!funding!is!not!available!to!support!the!adaptation!of!facilities,!consequences!may!include!failure!of!park!facilities!(i.e.,!sewage,!parking,!wells)!that!would!likely!negatively!affect!visitor!convenience!and!satisfaction.!!

Warmer!temperatures!will!continue!to!raise!stream!temperatures,!potentially!reducing&the&number&of&sites&suitable&for&recreational&salmonid&fishing,!while!increasing!sites!suitable!for!bass!fishing.!!

Hard.&While!Parks!are!planting!riparian!vegetation!to!shade!aquatic!ecosystems!(slowing!the!warming!of!rivers!and!streams),!there!is!little!more!they!can!do!to!control!water!temperatures!in!the!Parks.!

Low.&While!warming!stream!and!river!temperatures!have!a!high!ecological!consequence,!the!impact!to!Parks!is!expected!to!be!minimal.!Parks!may!see!a!change!in!how!people!recreate!in!Parks,!or!which!fish!species!they!are!fishing!for!(i.e.,!bass!instead!of!salmon).!!

!





Warmer!temperatures!during!summer!can&increase&algal&bloom&issues&in&lakes.&If!specific!algal!thresholds!are!reached,!Parks!is!required!to!close!recreational!access!to!the!affected!lakes.!!

Easy&to!Hard,!depending!on!the!scope!of!the!impact.!If!algal!blooms!remain!limited!in!scope,!it!will!be!easy!to!adjust!to!(but!not!preferred).!However,!if!the!issue!becomes!more!widespread!it!will!prove!hard!for!Parks!to!adjust.!If!lake!closures!result!in!people!choosing!to!not!to!visit!Parks,!there!is!little!the!agency!can!do.!!

Low&to!High,!depending!on!the!scope!of!the!impact.!Water!recreation!activities!occurring!in!affected!lakes!prior!to!detection!can!place!users!at!increased!risk!of!potential!health!issues!from!exposure.!Other!consequences!include!restricting!access!to!affected!water!bodies,!which!could!negatively!affect!Parks!if!heavily!used!lakes!are!closed!and!visitation!declines.!!

Warmer!temperatures!during!summer!can!increase&the&potential&for&Vibrio*outbreaks&in&coastal&areas,&lakes,&rivers,&and&streams.&Parks!in!the!southern!region!of!the!Hood!Canal!area!are!particularly!susceptible!to!these!outbreaks.!!

Easy.&Staff!already!deal!with!Vibrio)outbreaks!in!several!of!the!parks.!Park!staff!also!noted!that!campsites!have!still!been!full!during!Vibrio)outbreaks.!!

Low&to!Moderate,&depending!on!the!scope!of!the!impact.!Consequences!include!closures!of!areas!to!shellfish!harvesting!or!swimming.!!


snowpack!•! Shorter!snow!

season!•! Changes!in!

snow!quality!are!uncertain!

Lower!snowpack!and!earlier!snowmelt!could&reduce&lake&levels&during&summer&recreation.&!

Moderate.&There!is!a!small!number!of!freshwater!boating!facilities!in!the!Southwest!Region,!so!it!is!unlikely!that!the!issue!will!be!too!widespread.!!

Moderate.&If!water!levels!drop!too!low,!boat!ramps!may!close!to!ensure!the!safety!of!users!and!boat!facility!infrastructure.!This!may!reduce!visitation!if!parks!users!are!attempting!to!use!boat!launches.!!

Lower!snowpack!and!earlier!snowmelt!will&likely&lengthen&the&Parks’&use&season&(e.g.,!extending!into!the!spring!and!fall!shoulder!seasons).&There!will!likely!be!fewer!snowPrelated!closures!to!Parks.!!

Moderate.&& Low.&Changes!could!contribute!to!higher!revenue;!issues!related!to!higher!use!(see!Temperature!section,!this!table)!are!also!relevant!but!were!not!raised!during!discussion!of!this!impact.!!

Other)factors)discussed)but)not)rated:))•! Increased!variability!in!general!creates!more!staffing!challenges.!!

!





Changes*in*precipitation*&*hydrology:*•! Increasing!

fall,!winter,!spring!precipitation!

•! More!intense/more!frequent!heavy!rain!events!

•! Increased!soil!saturation!in!winter!!

•! Decreasing!summer!precipitation!

•! Higher!winter!streamflows!


•! Lower,!warmer!summer!streamflows!!

•! Longer!summer!low!flow!period!!

Increasing!fall,!winter,!and!spring!precipitation!could!negatively&impact&the&construction&window.!!

Moderate.&It!is!challenging!to!work!in!wet!conditions!where!the!groundwater!level!is!higher!than!normal.&

High.&Consequences!include!delaying!construction!to!the!summer!months!during!peak!park!usage,!which!could!affect!visitor!experiences,!or!closing!parks!due!to!maintenance!issues!which!were!not!addressed.!!

An!increase!in!the!frequency!and!intensity!of!heavy!precipitation!events!could&reduce&offseason&camping.!Users!are!less!likely!to!make!offseason!reservations!if!it!is!cold,!and!very!wet.!!

Easy.&Staff!are!already!used!to!dealing!with!variable!registration!levels!during!nonPpeak!seasons.!!

Low.&Revenue&could!be!affected!if!people!choose!not!to!purchase!Discover!Passes!early!in!the!season.!However,!there!could!also!be!a!rebound!effect!where!people!just!delay!the!purchase!until!summer!months!so!net!consequence!for!revenue!is!unclear.!

Increased!winter&flooding&could&damage&park&facilities.&Issues!are!likely!to!stem!from!both!river!flooding!and!stormwater!management.!!

Moderate.&Facilities!and!infrastructure!may!need!to!be!rebuilt!or!repaired!depending!on!the!extent!of!damage.!Staff!may!also!have!to!dredge!debris!and!rock!deposited!in!creeks!by!floods.!In!areas!where!repeat!flooding!becomes!problematic,!campgrounds!may!need!to!be!relocated!(if!there!is!suitable!land!for!campsites!at!higher!elevations)!

Moderate.&Campsite!closures!can!affect!revenue!if!alternate!sites!are!not!available.!At!the!same!time,!more!frequent!or!more!extensive!repairs!related!to!flood!damage!may!increase!operating!costs.!!

If!more!landslides!occur,!the!slides!could!reduce&access&to&trails,&interrupt&trail&networks,&damage&infrastructure&and&facilities,&and&affect&access&within&the&parks!if,!

Moderate.&& Moderate.&Consequences!include!loss!of!trail!systems,!loss!of!access!to!restrooms,!added!cost!of!rerouting!trails,!roads,!infrastructure.!&

!





for!example,!the!landslide!blocks!a!park!road!or!damages!access!to!a!beach.!!Less!summer!precipitation,!combined!with!warmer!summers!and!declining!snowpack!(where!relevant),!could&reduce&water&supply&in&southwest&parks&and/or&cause&wells&to&go&dry&(e.g.,!Belfair!State!Park).!Parks!operating!with!junior!water!rights!are!more!likely!to!be!affected!by!supply!interruptions.!This!could!also!be!an!issue!for!Parks!that!are!dependent!on!municipal!water!suppliers!as!those!suppliers!could!hold!off!supplying!water!to!parks!if!supplies!are!limited!by!drought.!!!A!lower!water!supply!could!also!create!increased&challenges&for&parks&that&irrigate&even!as!the!demand!for!irrigation!increase.&!

Easy&to&Hard.&This!issue!should!be!relatively!easy!for!Parks!to!address!if!it!remains!limited!in!scope.!However,!if!water!supply!issues!become!more!widespread,!that!could!prove!hard!for!Parks!to!adjust!to.!Where!water!supplies!are!affected,!water!conservation!measures!will!be!required.!Limited!supplies!may!also!necessitate!trucking!water!into!parks,!or!seeking!out!alternative!water!supplies.!!

Low&to&Moderate.&The!magnitude!of!the!consequences!depends!on!the!scale!of!the!issue!(e.g.,!low!consequence!if!limited!in!scope).!Examples!include!closures!and!lack!of!service!to!affected!parks.!Closures!could!affect!revenue.!Regarding!irrigation!specifically:!there!are!a!limited!number!of!manicured!landscapes!currently;!however,!limits!on!watering!could!affect!park!usage!if!the!amount!of!green!space!is!reduced!(i.e.,!grassy!areas!dry!out).!!

Other)factors)discussed)but)not)rated:)•! Septic!issues!can!arise!because!of!flooding!and!heavy!precipitation!events.!Dosewallips!State!Park!built!a!$6!million!sewage!treatment!plant,!in!part!because!dayPuse!toilets!did!not!flush!during!high!tide.&

Changes)in)vegetation:)•! Increased!

drought!stress!


•! Impacts!on!tree!health!from!insects,!disease)

•! Changes!in!nonPnative!

Increasing!tree&stress&(via&changes&in&insects&and&disease)!and!wildfire!could!require!more!vigilant!and!intensive&forest&management!on!Parks!land.!This!includes!more!tree!removal/heavy!pruning.!

Hard.&Will!need!to!increase!staff!training!to!identify!signs!of!tree!stress.!Addressing!impacts!would!be!more!effective!if!emphasis!can!be!placed!on!treating!the!causal!agent,!not!just!removing!the!dead!trees.!This!will!be!difficult!since!it!would!require!devoting!more!staff!time!and!resources!to!forest!health!(unclear!if!those!resources!will!be!available).!Increased!fire!frequency!would!also!require!more!staff!time!as!Parks!staff!are!the!first!responders!to!fires!on!Parks!lands.!!

High.&Dead!or!diseased!trees!in!developed!areas!pose!a!threat!to!both!dayPusers!and!campers.!The!need!for!more!tree!removal/heavy!pruning!would!increase!operating!costs!and!affect!visitor!experience.!More!diseased!or!dead!trees!could!result!in!campsite!closures!due!to!public!safety!concerns.!!

!





invasive!species)

)

Changes!in!tree!health!and!nonPnative!invasive!species!could!increase&habitat&degradation.&&

Hard.&& High.&&

Other)factors)discussed)but)not)rated:)•! Following!fires,!increased!runoff!would!be!an!issue!would!be!an!issue!if!trees/vegetation!has!been!removed.!&

Sea)level)rise:!•! Increased!

coastal!flooding!

•! Increased!surge,!wave!energy!!

•! Increased!erosion!

•! Inundation!of!lowPlying!areas!

•! Increased!saltwater!intrusion!in!groundwater!wells,!septic!

•! Changes!in!nearshore!habitat!

Sea!level!rise!will!lead!to!more&shoreline&flooding&and&an&increased&potential&for&permanent&inundation.&Bottle!Beach,!Cape!Disappointment,!Twin!Harbors,!and!Grayland!Beach!state!park!are!likely!to!be!inundated!due!to!lowPlying!areas.!Specific!facilities!in!Dosewallips!and!Potlatch!state!park!will!likely!be!affected!by!sea!level!rise.!

Hard.!Making!these!Parks!resilient!to!shoreline!flooding!and!permanent!inundation!is!very!expensive.!Additionally,!there!may!be!limited!options!if!there!are!no!suitable!sites!to!move!facilities!or!campsites,!limiting!the!amount!of!adjustment!that!can!occur.!!!

High.&Inundation!and!closure!of!parks!will!negatively!affect!visitation,!especially!if!Cape!Disappointment!and!Grayland!Beach!state!park!experience!closures.!There!may!also!be!public!pushback!on!possible!relocation!areas!(i.e.,!individuals!like!camping!by!the!water).!

Sea!level!rise!and!higher!storm!surge!are!likely!to!increase&erosion&at&parks&and!exacerbate&issues&with&shoreline&protection&structures&and&replacements.&Some!areas!already!have!to!be!evacuated!during!large!winter!storms.!Areas!likely!to!be!affected!include!the!Seashore!Conservation!Area!and!areas!where!current!bulkheads!need!to!be!replaced!(e.g.,!Sequim!Bay!and!Illahee).!!

Hard.!Erosion!control!is!difficult!to!sustain!and!expensive.!Significant!efforts!have!already!been!made!to!ameliorate!the!effects!of!erosion!on!Parks!property!(e.g.,!Manchester,!Fort!Worden,!Blake!Island!state!parks);!however,!many!of!these!parks!are!still!experiencing!significant!erosion!issues.!!Replacing!hard!armoring!with!soft!shore!armoring!could!prove!problematic!for!facilities!and!parking!lots!close!to!the!shorelines!(e.g.,!Sequim!Bay!State!Park).!

High.&Erosion!may!have!significant!impacts!on!access!to!beaches!and!other!park!amenities,!which!could!affect!park!visitation.!More!maintenance!or!replacement!of!protection!structures!will!increase!operational!costs.!!

!





As!shorelines!change!(due!to!rising!seas)!there!will!be!issues&that&arise&due&to&regulatory&compliance&issues.&It!will!be!more!challenging!to!do!things!in!the!parks!as!local!ordinances!are!changed!to!account!for!sea!level!rise,!especially!in!regards!to!failing!retaining!walls.!While!Parks!is!not!required!to!protect!adjacent!landowners,!Parks!would!be!liable!if!an!armoring!structure!negatively!affects!an!adjacent!landowner.!!

Moderate.&This!is!already!a!part!of!what!Parks!does,!but!any!additional!efforts!would!be!dependent!on!availability!of!staff,!resources,!and!the!nature!of!the!changes.!!

Moderate.&Changes!in!regulatory!compliance!issues!would!affect!how!Parks!designs!facilities,!structures,!etc.,!and!it!would!also!affect!where!they!can!be!built,!and!how!much!they!would!cost.!It!would!likely!be!similar!to!compliance!with!ADA!regulations;!once!included!as!a!requirement!it!would!be!another!factor!that!is!incorporated!into!park!design!and!planning.!!!

Higher!storm!surge!would!increase!the!amount!of!marine&debris,!which!would!be!an!issue!in!some!locations.!!

Easy.&& Low.&The!presence!of!marine!debris!can!negatively!affect!access!to!the!park!and!park!facilities.!More!frequent!debris!removal!will!result!in!increased!removal!costs.!!

Sea!level!rise!and!related!impacts!increase&the&vulnerability&of&historical&structures&and&archaeological&sites&to&damage.&This!is!currently!a!significant!problem!in!Puget!Sound!parks.!Examples!include:!Kitsap!Memorial,!Potlatch,!Belfair!(cultural),!Manchester,!and!Fort!Worden!state!park.!

Hard.&Moving!old!structures!is!expensive.!In!addition,!changing!the!location!of!a!historical!structure!would!negatively!impact!its!integrity,!since!it!would!no!longer!be!in!its!original!location.!

High.&These!are!areas!of!significance!for!State!Parks.!They!are!also!an!attraction!for!visitors.!!

Sea!level!rise!increases&the!risk&of&saltwater&intrusion&into&wells.&Most!seashore!parks!are!reliant!on!public/private!water!systems.!Belfair!State!Park!and!all!of!the!state!parks!in!Hood!Canal!could!be!affected!by!this.!!

Hard.&Limited!ability!for!individual!parks!to!be!able!to!hook!into!alternative!(uncontaminated)!water!sources.!!

Moderate.&Saltwater!intrusion!into!wells!can!prove!to!be!financially!costly!for!Parks.!It!may!also!reduce!operations,!or!result!in!closures!where!issues!cannot!be!resolved.!!

!

Appendix!A:!Eastern!Region!Workshop!Summary! ! Page!82!

Appendix(A:(Eastern(Region(Vulnerability(Assessment(Workshop(Summary(((Prepared(by(((Harriet(Morgan,(Lara(Whitely(Binder,(and(Dan(Siemann(University(of(Washington(Climate(Impacts(Group(!!!

!

(( (

!


Overview(of(Eastern(Region(Parks(The!Eastern!Region!of!Washington!State!Parks!includes!56!parks!located!in!central!and!eastern!Washington!(Figure!1).!The!Eastern!Region!includes!Mount!Spokane!State!Park,!the!agency’s!largest!park!by!area!(13,054!acres)!and!a!popular!location!for!skiing,!snowmobiling,!and!summer!recreation.!Annual!average!attendance!at!Mt.!Spokane!State!Park!is!around!550,000!visits.51!Other!popular!parks!in!the!region!include!Riverside!State!Park!(Spokane;!almost!1,300,000!visits!each!year)52!and!Sun!LakesSDry!Falls!State!Park!(approximately!1,000,000!visits!annually).53!!!NearSterm!(next!1S2!years)!priorities!noted!by!Eastern!Region!staff!include!a!heavy!focus!on!evaluating!how!current!staffing!levels!align!with!the!2017S2019!budget.!The!Region’s!focus!over!the!past!20!years!has!been!on!the!rehabilitation!of!existing!Parks!facilities,!as!budget!and!staffing!constraints!have!limited!the!pursuit!of!new!development.!Staff!hope!to!increase!staffing!and!continue!to!implement!capital!improvement!projects.!!

(Key(Findings(for(the(Eastern(Region((Input!on!how!climate!change!could!affect!Eastern!Region!parks!was!solicited!through!a!preSworkshop!interview!with!two!staff!members!and!a!workshop!with!Eastern!Region!staff!on!May!31,!2017.!The!preSworkshop!interview!provided!an!opportunity!to!learn!more!about!the!region!and!initial!staff!thoughts!on!regionSspecific!climate!impacts.!Additional!staff!with!responsibilities!in!management,!planning,!operations,!and!stewardship!participated!in!the!workshop!(eight!participants!in!total).!!!The!workshop!began!with!an!overview!of!the!project’s!origins,!objectives,!scope,!and!outcomes.!The!morning!also!included!presentations!on!projected!climate!change!impacts!on!the!Eastern!Region!and!highlights!from!the!preSworkshop!interviews.!Projected!climate!change!impacts!include:!!

•! Increasing!seasonal!temperatures!and!more!extreme!heat!events;!

•! Decreasing!snowpack;!

•! Changes!in!precipitation,!e.g.,!increasing!cool!season!precipitation!and!decreasing!summer!precipitation;!more!intense!extreme!precipitation;!increased!risk!of!landslides);!and!

•! Changes!in!forest!health!and!fire!risk.!

A!detailed!summary!of!projected!changes!for!the!Eastern!Region!is!included!in!Appendix!B.!More!on!the!preSworkshop!interview!and!project!methodology!is!included!in!Section!3!of!the!assessment!report.!

Discussion!Staff!were!asked!to!discuss!how!different!climate!change!impacts!could!affect!properties,!infrastructure,!and!operations!in!the!Eastern!Region.!For!each!impact!identified,!staff!rated!1)!the!ability!to!adjust!to!or!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!51!Mount!Spokane!State!Park!Master!Facilities!Plan,!Draft!Environmental!Impact!Statement!(2010),!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission.!Available!at:!http://parks.state.wa.us/DocumentCenter/Home/View/1468!!52!Schundler,!G.,!Mojica,!J.,!Briceno,!T.!2015.!Economic!Analysis!of!Outdoor!Recreation!at!Washington’s!State!Parks.!Earth!Economics,!Tacoma,!WA.!53!Sun!LakesDDry!Falls!State!Park!Management!Plan!(2003),!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission.!Available!at:!http://parks.state.wa.us/DocumentCenter/Home/View/1563!!

!


accommodate!the!impact!(assuming!normal!resources!and!authorities),!and!2)!the!consequence!of!the!impact,!taking!into!account!the!ability!to!adjust!(Table!1).!Where!relevant,!parks!where!specific!impacts!may!be!an!issue!were!noted.!After!discussing!the!range!of!impacts!relevant!to!the!Eastern!Region,!staff!were!asked!to!identify!the!top!three!impacts!that!are!likely!to!be!most!important!to!the!Eastern!Region.!!Those!were:!

•! increasing!heavy!rain!events!and!the!potential!for!more!flooding,!!

•! Changes!in!wildfire!risk,!forest!health,!and!nonSnative!invasive!species;!and!

•! declining!snowpack!and!a!shorter!snow!season.!

Figure!1.!Washington!State!Parks,!Eastern!Region.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!

!


Table!1.!Ability!to!adjust!and!consequence!rating!keys!used!by!staff!during!project!workshops!for!rating!climate!change!impacts.!

!Increasing!Heavy!Rain!Events!and!the!Potential!for!More!Flooding!

!Staff!considered!increasing!heavy!rain!events!and!the!potential!for!more!flooding!(a!subset!of!the!issues!associated!with!changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology)!to!be!a!top!concern!given!the!number!of!Eastern!Region!parks!potentially!affected!by!these!changes!(all!of!them)!and!the!costs!and!challenges!of!responding!to!the!heavy!rain!and!flooding.!In!preSworkshop!interviews,!staff!noted!that!the!region!has!had!to!make!floodSrelated!repairs!at!several!parks!over!the!past!several!years,!including!Mount!Spokane!State!Park!and!Pearrygin!Lake!State!Park.!Staff!have!also!had!to!deal!with!significant!flooding!and!debris!management!issues!in!areas!affected!by!wildfire.!Potential!impacts!associated!with!more!intense!heavy!rain!events!and!winter!flooding!include!damage!to!park!facilities;!damage!to!undersized!culverts,!footbridges,!and!trails;!increased!erosion!and!debris;!and!campsite!closures!in!flooded!sites.!Staff!rated!the!ability!to!adapt!to!these!impacts!as!“moderate!to!hard”!in!most!cases.!Consequences!were!considered!“moderate”!or!“high.”!and!included!increasing!repair!costs,!reduced!access!to!park!amenities,!park!closures,!and!lost!revenue.!!!!Changes!in!Wildfire!Risk,!Forest!Health,!and!NonDNative!Invasive!Species!The!next!set!of!concerns!included!an!increased!risk!in!wildfire,!the!potential!for!more!tree!health!issues!due!to!insects!and!disease,!and!nonSnative!invasive!species!driven!by!warming!air!temperatures,!declining!summer!precipitation,!and!lower!snowpack.!These!changes!were!considered!hard!to!adapt!to!and!high!consequence!partially!due!to!the!widespread!nature!of!these!problems!in!the!region!currently.!!

Ability!to

!Adjust!

Easy!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“a!blip”)!

Moderately!difficult!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“this!would!be!a!hassle,!but!we!could!deal!with!it”)!!

Hard!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“this!would!be!a!big!problem”)!




!

Conseq

uence!

Low!consequence!(“a!blip”)!

Moderate!Consequence!(“this!would!affect!us!in!a!

meaningful!way,!but!we!could!deal!

with!it”)!

High!Consequence!(“this!would!be!a!major!issue!for!

our!program”)!




!

!


Wildfires!are!a!frequent!problem!in!eastern!Washington.!More!wildfires!would!divert!staff!time!and!resources!away!from!planned!work!to!deal!with!wildfire!issues!and!lead!to!reduced!air!quality!near!parks!(which!can!lead!to!cancellations),!park!closures,!and!costly!repairs!to!facilities.!A!2015!fire!at!Alta!Lake!State!Park!significantly!damaged!a!camp!loop!and!required!replacement!of!power!lines!and!facilities.!Trees!damaged!by!fire!can!create!safety!hazards!for!park!visitors!and!require!removal!from!areas!in!proximity!to!camgrounds,!trails,!and!other!areas!accessed!by!the!public.!Staff!also!noted!that!more!burn!bans!can!result!in!campsite!reservation!cancellations.!The!ability!to!quickly!evacuate!campgrounds!in!the!event!of!a!fire!is!always!a!concern!is!high!fire!risk!areas!(e.g.,!25Smile!Creek!in!Lake!Chelan).!!Even!in!the!absence!of!fires,!an!increase!in!high!fire!risk!conditions!would!require!more!frequent!or!prolonged!burn!bans!at!parks,!affecting!visitor!experiences!(cancellations!are!common!when!burn!bans!go!into!effect).!!Extensive!thinning!to!reduce!fire!risk!may!also!affect!visitor!experiences!and!reduce!visits!to!affected!sites.!The!net!result!is!a!higher!potential!for!lower!revenue,!lower!visitor!satisfaction,!and!increased!operating!expenses!in!areas!affected!by!more!wildfire.!!!Changes!in!tree!health!due!to!an!increase!in!insects!and!disease!would!exacerbate!existing!challenges!with!forest!health!issues!in!many!parks!in!the!Eastern!Region!(e.g.,!Lake!Easton!State!Park).!Western!bark!beetle!has!been!a!notable!concern!for!the!Eastern!Parks!Region.!Diseased!trees!can!become!a!safety!risk!to!visitors!as!the!trees!start!to!drop!branches!or!fall.!This!may!require!closing!camgrounds!or!picnic!areas.!Parks!does!an!annual!tree!hazard!assessment!to!identify!trees!that!may!be!a!public!safety!concern,!whether!on!a!trail,!picnic!site,!or!campsite.!!!!Projected!increases!in!seasonal!temperatures!and!changes!in!precipitation!regimes!could!also!facilitate!the!spread!of!nonSnative!invasive!species!in!the!Eastern!Parks!Region,!increasing!the!obligation!on!Parks!to!limit!the!spread!of!nonSnative!invasive!species!such!as!napweed,!puncturevine,!Russian!thistle,!and!Canada!thistle.!Issues!related!to!changes!in!vegetation!were!rated!as!“hard!to!adjust!to”!and!“high!consequence”.!!Parks’!forest!management!strategy!includes!aggressive!thinning!and!a!thorough!tree!health!evaluation!aimed!at!1)!reducing!the!spread!and!susceptibility!of!trees,!and!2)!identifying!trees!which!may!present!public!safety!concerns!in!the!future.!Further!declines!in!forest!health!conditions!may!require!the!use!of!more!insecticides!to!limit!beetle!infestation!and!increased!monitoring!of!forest!health!conditions,!both!of!which!would!increase!costs!and!require!more!staff!time.!More!issues!with!tree!health!could!also!reduce!revenue!by!requiring!closure!of!more!campsite!and!daySuse!area!due!to!public!safety!concerns!over!falling!branches!and!trees.!!

Declining!Snowpack!and!a!Shorter!Snow!Season!

The!third!most!important!set!of!impacts!for!the!Eastern!Region,!according!to!staff,!were!impacts!associated!with!declining!snowpack!and!a!shorter!snow!season.!Staff!ranked!these!impacts!as!moderately!hard!to!adjust!to!and!high!consequence.!As!air!temperatures!warm,!a!greater!fraction!of!winter!precipitation!will!fall!as!rain!instead!of!snow.!Additionally,!warmer!spring!temperatures!will!likely!result!in!snowmelt!occurring!earlier!in!the!year,!shortening!the!snow!season.!Lower!snowpack!and!a!shorter!snow!season!is!expected!to!reduce!winter!visitation!to!parks!where!winter!recreation!is!the!main!draw!(e.g.,!Mount!Spokane,!Lake!Easton,!and!Iron!Horse!state!park).!While!this!impact!is!limited!to!a!

!


subset!of!sites!in!the!eastern!region,!Winter!Recreation!Program!revenue!is!used!to!support!many!Eastern!Region!staff.!Impacts!on!Winter!Recreation!Program!revenue!could!therefore!affect!Eastern!Region!program!staffing.!!!Lower!snowpack!and!the!transition!to!more!winter!rain!is!also!likely!to!result!in!more!frequent!road!washouts,!reducing!access!to!SnoSParks!and!associated!revenue!from!those!sites.!The!potential!for!more!intense!heavy!rain!events!may!further!exacerbate!this!issue.!For!more!details!on!projected!climate!change!impacts!on!the!Winter!Recreation!Program,!see!the!Statewide!Workshop!summary!in!Appendix!B.!!!!!!Other!Impacts!

Other!impacts!discussed!by!Eastern!Region!staff!included!the!potential!for:!!

•! extended!use!seasons!and!increased!visitation!rates!during!the!shoulder!seasons!as!temperatures!rise,!!

•! an!increase!in!the!number!and!frequency!of!heatSrelated!medical!responses,!!

•! increased!demand!for!irrigation!and!water!use!at!parks!during!summer!months,!and!•! lower!groundwater!levels,!which!can!increase!well!maintenance!requirements,!impact!water!

quality!(e.g.,!nitrate!levels),!and/or!require!water!use!restrictions.!

In!preSworkshop!interviews!for!the!Eastern!Region,!staff!noted!that!there!are!many!arid!sites!in!the!Eastern!Region!which!require!irrigation.!Impacts!on!summer!water!use!would!be!more!of!an!issue!at!newer!parks!with!junior!water!rights;!many!of!the!older!parks!in!the!region!have!senior!water!rights!and!are!therefore!less!likely!to!see!their!water!rights!curtailed!during!drought.!Staff!also!expect!that!it!will!become!more!difficult!to!open!new!parks!in!the!region!given!projected!climate!impacts!on!summer!water!supplies,!which!are!already!limited!in!eastern!Washington.!More!information!on!the!range!of!issues!discussed!is!summarized!in!Table!2.!

“Deep!Dive”!Discussion!

A!separate!“Deep!Dive”!Discussion!into!individual!parks!in!the!Eastern!Region!was!not!necessary!given!the!level!of!detail!in!the!discussion!of!the!regionSwide!parks!and!the!time!required!to!complete!the!regional!discussion.!!

!


Table&2.!Preliminary!assessment!of!climate!change!impacts!for!Eastern!Region!parks,!as!identified!and!rated!by!staff!during!the!Eastern!Region!workshop.!

Projected&climate&change&impacts&




seasonal!temperatures!

•! More!extreme!heat!events*

Warmer!temperatures!may!extend&the&use&seasons&of&the&parks.!This!will!likely!result!in!opening&parks&earlier&in&the&year!and!could!result!in!heavier&use&during&shoulder&seasons&(September,!October,!April,!and!May).&!!Parks!may&see&declines&in&camping&reservations&during!the&hottest&months!due!to!high!temperatures!and!burn!bans.!!!

Hard.!This!would!prove!challenging!for!operations!because!it!would!require!increasing!the!budget!to!support!additional!staff!during!the!extended!season.!It!would!also!be!challenging!to!hire!seasonal!staff!for!an!extended!season!because!many!Parks!seasonal!staff!are!college!students,!and!would!be!unable!to!arrive!for!seasonal!work!earlier!in!the!spring!and/or!finish!work!later!in!the!fall!due!to!class!start!and!end!dates.!!

Moderate.&While!increased!use!would!affect!Eastern!Region!Parks,!the!region!already!deals!with!this!challenge!and!could!likely!find!a!solution.!If!park!use!seasons!are!extended!and!there!are!no!staffing!increases,!Parks!would!likely!be!understaffed!for!a!portion!of!the!year!which!would!strain!operations!in!individual!parks!and!could!potentially!reduce!the!levels!of!customer!service!that!staff!can!provide!to!visitors.!If!sufficient!funding!was!available!to!support!additional!staff,!the!consequences!of!increased!use!would!likely!be!reduced.!Additionally,!if!the!park!visitation!rates!increase!it!will!likely!mean!more!revenue,!which!helps!deal!with!some!of!the!impacts.!

Warmer!temperatures!are!more!extreme!heat!events!will!likely&increase&the&number&and&frequency&of&heat&related&medical/first&aid&responses.!Staff!highlighted!Riverside!State!Park,!which!has!over!80!miles!of!hiking!and!equestrian!trails,!as!a!park!which!frequently!responds!to!multiple!heatLrelated!medical!issues!per!summer.!!!

Easy.&This!is!an!issue!that!the!Eastern!Region!currently!deals!with!(incidents!have!been!increasing).!As!a!result,!parks!are!relatively!well!equipped!to!deal!with!this!impact.!!

Low.&May!warrant!more!public!education!efforts!from!Eastern!Region!Park!staff!to!communicate!the!risks!of!dehydration!on!hot!days,!and!the!risks!of!swimming!and!boating!in!cold!rivers!and!lakes.!!

!





Warmer!temperatures!and!drier!summers!could!require!increased&irrigation&to&maintain&vegetation!in!the!region.!The!public!has!an!expectation!that!Parks!will!provide!areas!of!green!landscaping,!whether!that!be!grass!fields!or!plants.!Regional!staff!noted!that!they!received!public!complaints!in!Riverside!State!Park!regarding!grassy!areas!that!were!drying!out!and!browning!during!summer!months.!!

Moderate.&The!ability!to!adjust!to!this!impact!will!likely!be!parkLspecific!as!it!is!heavily!dependent!on!the!parks!annual!water!rights!(junior!vs.!senior).!For!example,!newer!parks!will!have!more!water!use!restrictions!than!an!older!park!(which!may!have!senior!water!rights),!and!therefore!may!be!less!likely!to!increase!irrigation!to!keep!grassy!areas!green!throughout!summer.!Adapting!to!this!impact!may!require!parkLspecific!decisions!regarding!what!plants!should!be!planted!(i.e.,!plant!drought!tolerant,!native!species)!and!reducing!the!footprint!of!a!park!(i.e.,!total!area)!which!is!irrigated.!Ability!to!adjust!to!this!impact!may!also!be!limited!by!broken!sprinkler!heads,!challenges!related!to!pumping!efforts,!and!water!filtration!issues.!

Moderate.&Consequences!include!negative!pushLback!from!the!public!if!there!is!a!decline!in!manicured!grassy!areas,!or!a!reduction!in!the!number!or!quality!of!turf!fields!used!for!community!sports!or!activities.!!

* Other!issues!noted!but!not!rated:!!•! Increasing!summer!temperatures!may&require&upgrading&more&RV&sites&to&accommodate&higher&energy&demands!for!RC!air!

conditioning!so!visitors!can!stay!comfortable.!Staff!suggested!looking!to!southwestern!states!(e.g.,!Arizona!and!New!Mexico)!to!see!how!parks!which!are!currently!hot!and!dry!manage!campsites!and!parks.&


snowpack!•! Shorter!snow!

season!•! Changes!in!

snow!quality!are!uncertain!

Declining!snowpack!and!a!shorter!snow!season!length!may!lead!to!increased&variability&in&winter&recreation&opportunities,!and!may!impact&Parks&programs&that&depend&on&snow.!Parks!that!currently!dependent!on!snow!for!winter!visitation!include!Mount!Spokane,!Lake!Wenatchee,!Fields!Spring,!Lake!Easton,!Squilchuck,!and!Pearrygin!state!park.!!

Moderate.&Parks!that&have!historically!been!dependent!on!snowpack!for!winter!visitation!may!need!to!transition!over!to!a!more!traditional!park!management!model.!Impact!is!limited!to!parks!that!are!reliant!on!snowpack!for!winter!visitation.!

High.&Parks!dependent!on!winter!recreation!(e.g.,!Mount!Spokane,!Lake!Easton,!and!Iron!Horse!state!park)!may!experience!declines!in!winter!visitation!and!revenue.!Many!Eastern!Region!staff!are!supported!by!the!Winter!Recreation!Program.!Therefore,!declining!snowpack!would!likely!lead!to!a!reduction!in!staff!supported!by!the!Winter!Recreation!Program.!

!





Changes*in*precipitation*&*hydrology:*•! Increasing!

fall,!winter,!spring!precipitation!




•! Higher!winter!streamflows!




Declining!summer!precipitation!coupled!with!declining!snowpack!could!increase&the&potential&for&lower&groundwater&levels.!This!could!impact!park&wells&and&water&quality&(e.g.!high!nitrate!levels,!sand!intrusion!into!well!water),!require!more!well&maintenance,!and/or!require!restrictions&on&water&use.!!More!issues!with!summer!water!supplies!could!make!it!more&difficult&to&open&new&parks&in&the&region!(water!supply/rights!may!not!be!available!for!drilling!new!wells).!

Moderate.&The!ability!to!adjust!will!largely!be!park!specific.!For!example,!if!a!park!needs!to!drill!a!new!well!an!important!consideration!will!be!what!kind!of!water!rights!the!park!holds!(junior!vs.!senior).!May!be!challenging!for!parks!to!drill!new!wells.!

Moderate.&Water!quality!and!quantity!impacts!may!affect!ability!to!meet!summer!water!demands,!affecting!visitor!experience.!Ability!to!grow!the!portfolio!of!parks!in!the!region!may!become!more!difficult.!!!

Increased!soil!saturation,!coupled!with!declining!snow,!during!winter!months!could!increase&the&risk&for&winter&landslides,!affecting!winter!trail!and!road!maintenance.!!

Moderate.&The!ability!to!adjust!to!this!impact!will!largely!be!park!specific.!May!need!to!modify!culverts,!ditch!lines,!and!trails!to!accommodate!increased!winter!runoff;!necessary!modifications!and!repair!within!the!parks!will!require!increased!funding.!Road!washout!would!be!a!serious!concern!for!some!of!the!parks!with!heavier!visitation,!as!it!may!result!in!revenue!losses!(e.g.,!Mount!Spokane!State!Park).&

Moderate.&Can!increase!operating!and!maintenance!costs.!Access!to!parks!and!park!features!may!be!limited!where!landslides!occur,!affecting!review!and!concentrating!use!in!other!areas.&

Increasing!fall/winter/spring!precipitation!and&related!flooding&could&damage&park&infrastructure&and&regional&trail&systems.!Eastern!Region!staff!noted!that!over!the!past!several!years!the!Eastern!Parks!Region!has!completed!flood!related!repairs!at!a!number!of!parks,!including!Mount!Spokane!State!Park!and!Pearrygin!Lake!State!Park.!!Damage!to!trails!may!be!accelerated!if!visitors!hike!or!bike!on!saturated,!muddy!trails.!

Easy&to&Hard.&The!ability!to!adjust!to!this!impact!will!depend!on!whether&Park’s!response!is!reactive!or!proactive!(i.e.,!if!reacting,!hard;!if!proactive,!easier!assuming!sufficient!funding!and!staff!are!available).!Parks!would!likely!need!to!install!larger!culverts,!rethink!footbridge!design,!and!increase!the!amount!of!freeboard!under!bridges!–!all!of!which!require!funding!and!staff!time.!Footbridges!are!very!expensive!to!

High&to!Moderate&(if!reacting,!high;!if!proactive,!moderate).&Access!to!park!facilities!or!park!features!may!be!limited!by&washouts,!flooding,!etc.!as!well!as!repairs.!This!which!would!concentrate!users!in!other!areas!of!the!park.!May!affect!revenue.!Operating!and!maintenance!costs!could!increase.!

!





! replace!and!it!is!challenging!to!get!permits.!

Higher&flood&waters!may!require!the!relocating&park&facilities&and&campgrounds.!

Hard.&This!is!an!expensive!process!which!will!require!a!high!level!of!staff!effort.!Additionally,!the!ability!to!adjust!to!this!impact!is!contingent!on!the!park!having!suitable!areas!for!campsite!or!facility!relocation.!!

High.&Process!is!costly.&May!affect!visitation,!particularly!if!campsites!have!to!be!closed.!Closures!would!affect!revenue.!!

Warmer!temperatures!and!wetter!springs!may&increase&the&abundance&and&proliferation&of&bugs&and&mosquitos!in!the!parks.!Warming!temperatures!may!facilitate!the!spread!of!mosquitos!to!higher!elevations.!Regional!staff!noted!that!the!Eastern!Region!is!currently!experiencing!significant!mosquito!issues!at!Lake!Wenatchee,!Steamboat,!and!Potholes!state!park.!!

Moderate&to&Hard.&This!could!require!an!increase!in!insecticide!application,!despite!a!public!opinion!that!Parks!should!be!using!less!insecticide.!Additionally,!if!an!increase!in!insecticide!application!requires!a!permit,!this!process!will!likely!have!a!lengthy!timeline.!!

High.&Consequences!of!increased!mosquito!populations!include!dissatisfied!parks!visitors,!and!could!potentially!result!in!closures!of!parks!if!mosquito!presence!becomes!unbearable!to!visitors.!While!mosquitos!are!not!currently!vectors!of!human!disease!in!the!Pacific!Northwest,!it!would!drastically!increase!the!consequence!of!this!impact!if!they!did!become!vectors!of!human!disease.!

Changes(in(vegetation:(•! Increased!

drought!stress!


•! Impacts!on!tree!health!from!insects,!disease(

Projected!increases!in!seasonal!temperatures!and!changes!in!precipitation!regimes!could!facilitate&the&spread&of&nonJnative&invasive&species&in&the&Eastern&Parks&Region,&although!the!response!of!individual!weeds!will!vary!(some!may!benefit!from!changing!conditions!while!others!may!not).!Species!of!specific!concern!to!the!Eastern!Region!include:!napweed,!puncturevine,!Russian!thistle,!Canada!thistle.!Increasing!abundance!of!nonLnative!invasive!species!could!require!more!vigilant!and!intensive!management!on!Parks!land.!!

Hard.&This!impact!is!currently!a!challenge!for!Eastern!Region!Parks.!Increases!in!the!spread!or!proliferation!of!nonLnative!invasive!species!would!only!exacerbate!this!current!challenge.!Increasing!pesticide!is!not!always!desired!by!park!visitors.!!

High.&Consequences!include!closing!specific!park!areas!which!have!been!sprayed!with!pesticide.!Increased!pesticide!application!would!also!require!more!frequent!communication/education!efforts!between!Parks!and!visitors!about!why!they!are!not!able!to!recreate!in!areas!which!have!been!recently!sprayed.!There!are!also!potential!consequences!from!adjacent!land!owners!and!county!weed!boards!who!do!not!want!these!weeds!spreading!onto!lands!adjacent!to!Parks!property.!!

!





Projected!increases!in!seasonal!temperature!and!more!summer!drought!stress!are!expected!to!increase&the&risk&of!fire&in&parks.&This!is!expected!to!lead!to!reductions!in!air!quality!due!to!smoke,!more!frequent!park!closures,!and!the!diversion!of!staff!to!deal!with!fire!issues.!An!increased!fire!risk!may!also!result!in!more!frequent!burn!bans,!which!often!result!in!cancellation!of!campsite!reservations.!Depending!on!the!location!of!a!fire,!DNR!staff!may!occupy!Parks!campsites!in!close!proximity!to!the!fires!they!are!responding!to,!limiting!the!space!that!can!be!used!by!paying!visitors.!

Hard.&Will!require!an!increase!in!staff!time,!financial!resources,!and!increased!focus!on!proactive!fire!management.!Ameliorating!the!impacts!of!increased!fire!risk!would!be!extremely!time!consuming.!!

High.&Consequences!include!lost!revenue,!costly!repairs!to!facilities,!and!difficulties!completing!previously!scheduled!work.!Fire!damage!to!park!forests!and!vegetation!or!thinning!to!reduce!fire!risk!may!affect!visitor!experience,!which!can!reduce!visitations!and!revenue!at!those!sites.!!

( Projected!increases!in!seasonal!temperature!and!summer!drought!stress!are!expected!to!leave!more&trees&vulnerable&to&insects&or&diseases&that&compromise&tree&health.!!!!

Hard.&While!Parks!has!been!gearing!up!for!responding!to!tree!health!issues!in!recent!years,!the!largest!challenge!for!the!region!will!be!the!scale!of!the!problem!(region!wide).!Parks!is!unable!to!spray!every!tree!to!prevent!insect!infestation!or!diseases.!Therefore,!Parks’!response!will!largely!come!down!to!proactive!forest!management!(i.e.,!removing!susceptible!trees!before!they!are!infested!or!become!diseased),!which!will!require!an!increased!staff!effort,!training,!and!financial!resources.!!!

High.&Consequences!include!having!to!close!parks!or!sections!of!parks!(e.g.,!campgrounds)!due!to!public!safety!concerns!surrounding!falling!branches.!ClearLcutting!trees!that!are!infected!or!susceptible!to!infection!may!be!negatively!received!by!the!public!if!they!want!to!recreate!in!forested!parks,!diminishing!visitor!experience.!!!!

!

!

Appendix!A:!Statewide!Programs!Workshop!Summary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Page!93!

Appendix(A:(Statewide(Programs(Workshop(Summary(((Prepared(by(((Lara(Whitely(Binder,(Harriet(Morgan,(and(Dan(Siemann(University(of(Washington(Climate(Impacts(Group(!!!

((( (

!


Overview(of(Statewide(Programs(Evaluated(in(the(Workshop((The!Washington!State!Parks!climate!change!vulnerability!assessment!included!an!assessment!of!three!programs!that!bridge!multiple!regions:!Stewardship,!Planning,!and!Winter!Recreation.!Each!of!these!programs!is!briefly!summarized!below.!!!Winter'Recreation.!The!Winter!Recreation!Program!manages!winter!recreation!activities!at!more!than!120!snow!parks!in!the!Washington!Cascades!and!eastern!Washington.!SnoKParks!are!divided!into!one!of!three!types:!NonKMotorized!SnoKParks!(approximately!40!parks54),!Snow!Play!SnoKParks!(5!parks55),!and!Snowmobile!SnoKParks!(approximately!80!parks56).!Approximately!3,000!miles!of!trail!are!dedicated!to!snowmobiling;!another!300!miles!of!trail!is!reserved!for!nonKmotorized!activities!such!as!downhill!and!crossKcountry!skiing,!snowshoeing,!skijoring57,!dogKsledding,!“fat!tire”!mountain!biking,!tubing,!and!general!snow!play!(WSPRC!2016).58!!!!The!Winter!Recreation!Program!is!selfKsupported!via!sales!of!winter!recreation!permits!and!snowmobile!registrations.!Operating!responsibilities!at!SnoKParks!include!plowing!parking!lots,!trail!grooming,!and!providing!and!maintaining!sanitation!facilities.!Parks!will!provide!these!services!from!December!1KMarch!31,!depending!on!funds!and!weather.!If!funds!are!insufficient,!Parks!may!end!services!early!at!some!locations.!SnoKPark!parking!permits!end!April!30.!!!Trail!grooming!is!the!program’s!largest!operational!expense.!NinetyKfive!percent!of!the!SnoKPark!system!trails!are!located!on!US!Forest!Service!(USFS)!land.!An!interagency!agreement!with!the!USFS!allows!State!Parks!to!run!the!winter!recreation!program!on!those!lands.!Parks!reimburses!the!USFS!through!agreements!for!education!and!enforcement!services,!trail!grooming,!snow!removal!and!some!sanitation!services.!Priorities!for!the!Winter!Recreation!Program!are!focused!on!trying!to!restore!the!program’s!operating!budget!to!a!level!that!would!allow!for!more!trail!grooming!and!increased!snow!removal!from!parking!lots.!The!goal!for!trail!grooming!is!2006!grooming!funding!levels,!which!predates!significant!budget!cuts!that!began!in!2011.!Winter!2016K17!is!the!first!year!that!the!program!met!this!goal!(grooming!was!increased!by!20%).!The!program!is!also!updating!its!strategic!plan!and!developing!ways!to!respond!to!increased!demand!in!the!IK90!corridor,!which!is!tied!to!population!growth!in!the!Puget!Sound!region.!Other!priorities!include!safety!education!and!permit!enforcement.!!!Planning.!The!Planning!Program!is!responsible!for!longKterm!facility!planning,!land!acquisition!and!classification!(e.g.,!determining!zones!for!specific!uses!within!parks),!and!planning!for!overall!park!function!and!capacity.!Planning!also!conducts!public!outreach!on!larger!public!policy!issues!affecting!parks!and!manages!interpretive!programs,!volunteer!programs,!and!resource!tracking!(e.g.,!energy!use).!A!major!nearKterm!priority!for!Planning!Program!staff!is!completion!of!park!Classification!and!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!54!http://parks.state.wa.us/452/NonKMotorizedKSnoKParks!!55!http://parks.state.wa.us/647/SnowKPlayKSnoKParks!!56!http://parks.state.wa.us/304/SnowmobileKSnoKParks!!57!Skijoring!is!a!winter!recreation!activity!that!involves!pulling!a!skier!by!horse,!dog(s),!or!motor!vehicle!(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skijoring)!!58!(WSPRC)!Washington!State!Parks!and!Recreation!Commission.!2016.!201432019'State'Parks'Strategic'Plan:'May'

19,'2016'Update.!Olympia,!WA.!Available!at!http://parks.state.wa.us/DocumentCenter/View/7663!!

!


Management!Planning!(CAMP)!efforts!at!Palouse!Falls!and!Lions!Ferry,!Riverside!state!park,!Wallace!Falls,!and!other!locations.!CAMP!is!a!multiKstakeholder,!multiKstage!planning!process!used!to!establish!management!priorities,!land!classification!zones,!and!a!longKterm!park!boundary!for!individual!parks.!!!Stewardship.!The!Stewardship!Program!is!responsible!for!protecting!and!managing!natural!and!cultural!heritage!resources!located!in!Washington!State!parks.!These!include:!!!

•! More!than!700!historic!properties,!such!as!historic!forts,!lighthouses,!an!historic!court!house,!and!various!structures!built!by!the!Civilian!Conservation!Corps;!and!

•! Unique!natural!resources,!including!lowland!old!growth!forest,!habitat!used!by!threatened!and!endangered!species,!and!areas!with!unique!plant!associations!found!only!in!state!parks;!and!

•! Native!ecosystem!resilience,!health!and!function.!!The!Stewardship!Program!is!also!responsible!for!managing!potential!risks!associated!with!wildlife,!tree!health,!pests!and!disease,!and!provides!statewide!coordination!of!environmental!review!and!compliance.!!Stewardship!Program!staff!identified!a!range!of!nearKterm!(i.e.,!next!1K2!years)!program!priorities!during!the!preKworkshop!interview.!Reducing!wildfire!risk!and!enhancing!forest!health!is!a!major!focus,!driven!in!part!by!recent!very!large!wildfire!years!(e.g.,!2014!and!2015).!Prioritizing!properties!for!maintenance!is!another!priority.!State!Parks!has!a!$500!million!dollar!maintenance!backlog.!To!help!prioritize!sites!for!repairs!and!improvements,!staff!have!adopted!criteria!for!ranking!historic!properties!and!will!use!those!criteria!to!prioritize!sites.!Staff!are!also!conducting!an!extensive!GIS!exercise!to!pull!together!data!on!Significant!Natural!Areas!(SNRs).!The!work!will!help!staff!identify!and!assess!high!priority!natural!resources,!current!and!desired!conditions!for!those!resources,!and!costs!for!accomplishing!those!desired!conditions.!!!

Key(Findings(for(Statewide(Programs(Input!on!how!climate!change!could!affect!statewide!programs!was!solicited!through!preKworkshop!interviews!and!a!workshop!with!statewide!program!staff!on!April!20,!2017.!The!preKworkshop!interviews!provided!an!opportunity!to!learn!more!about!each!program!and!initial!staff!thoughts!on!programKspecific!climate!impacts.!The!interviews!included!up!to!two!staff!members!from!each!program.!Additional!staff!participated!in!the!workshop!(10!participants!in!total).!!The!workshop!began!with!an!overview!of!the!project’s!origins,!objectives,!scope,!and!outcomes.!The!morning!also!included!presentations!on!projected!climate!change!impacts!on!Washington!State!and!highlights!from!the!preKworkshop!interviews.!Projected!climate!change!impacts!include:!!

•! Increasing!seasonal!temperatures!and!more!extreme!heat!events;'•! Decreasing!snowpack;'•! Changes!in!precipitation,!e.g.,!increasing!cool!season!precipitation!and!decreasing!summer!

precipitation;!more!intense!extreme!precipitation;!increased!risk!of!landslides);!'•! Changes!in!forest!health!and!fire!risk;!and!'•! Sea!level!rise.'

!


A!detailed!summary!of!projected!changes!for!the!state!is!included!in!Appendix!B.!More!on!the!preKworkshop!interview!and!project!methodology!is!included!in!Section!2!of!the!assessment!report.!!Discussion!Staff!were!divided!into!three!breakout!groups!(Winter!Recreation,!Planning,!and!Stewardship)!and!asked!to!discuss!how!climate!change!impacts!could!affect!properties,!infrastructure,!and!operations!associated!with!each!program.!Projected!climate!change!impacts!discussed!during!the!workshop!include:!!

•! Increasing!seasonal!temperatures!and!more!extreme!heat!events;'•! Decreasing!snowpack;'•! Changes!in!precipitation,!e.g.,!increasing!cool!season!precipitation!and!decreasing!summer!

precipitation;!more!intense!extreme!precipitation;!increased!risk!of!landslides);!'•! Changes!in!forest!health!and!fire!risk;!and!'•! Sea!level!rise.'

For!each!impact!identified,!staff!rated!1)!the!ability!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!the!impact!(assuming!normal!resources!and!authorities),!and!2)!the!consequence!of!the!impact,!taking!into!account!the!ability!to!adjust!(Table!1).!Where!relevant,!parks!where!specific!impacts!may!be!an!issue!were!noted.!After!discussing!the!range!of!impacts!relevant!to!their!program,!staff!were!asked!to!identify!the!top!three!impacts!that!are!likely!to!be!most!important!to!those!programs.!!!While!the!order!of!top!climate!change!impact!concerns!varied!between!programs,!common!climate!change!concerns!identified!by!staff!across!all!three!statewide!programs!included!sea!level!rise,!changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology,!declining!snowpack,!and!changes!in!vegetation!(including!forest!fire!risk!and!changes!in!forest!health)!(Table!2).!Issues!of!concern!for!each!program!are!summarized!below.!!!!!Winter!Recreation!Declining'snow'and'a'shorter'snow'season'(changes'in'snow).'Projected!declines!in!snowpack!and!a!shorter!snow!season!are!a!top!concern!for!the!Winter!Recreation!Program.!Changes!in!snow!quality!could!also!affect!the!Winter!Recreation!Program,!although!projections!for!changes!in!snow!quality!are!not!available.!!!The!Winter!Recreation!Program!is!a!selfKfunded!program!based!on!annual!sales!of!daily!and!seasonal!SnoKPark!permits!and!snowmobile!registration;!the!revenue!raised!through!these!sales!determines!the!operating!budget!for!the!following!season.!Changes!in!snow!cover!and!snow!quality!can!affect!sales!and!registrations,!resulting!in!variable!program!revenue!from!year!to!year.!For!example,!during!the!snow!drought!of!2014K15,!registration!dropped!30%!as!snowmobilers!and!snowshoers!delayed!purchasing!permits,!reducing!operating!revenue!for!2015K16.!Lower!snowpack!is!likely!to!reduce!permit!sales!and!snowmobile!registrations!and!leave!the!program!revenue!more!sensitive!to!yearKtoKyear!variability.!Changes!in!snowpack!also!affect!plowing!and!grooming!costs.!High!snowpack!years!(e.g.,!winter!2016K17)!create!an!opportunity!to!place!extra!funds!in!an!emergency!reserve.!!!!!! !

!


Table!1!Adjustment!and!consequence!rating!keys!for!rating!climate!change!impacts.!

!!Table!2.!Top!climate!change!concerns,!by!program,!as!identified!by!program!staff!during!the!Statewide!programs!workshop.!!!!!!!

Ability!to

!Adjust!

Easy!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“a'blip”)'

Moderately!difficult!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“this'would'be'a'hassle,'but'we'could'deal'with'it”)'!

Hard!to!adjust!to!or!accommodate!(“this'would'be'a'big'problem”)!




!

Conseq

uence!

Low!consequence!(“a'blip”)'

Moderate!Consequence!(“this'would'affect'us'in'a'

meaningful'way,'but'we'could'deal'

with'it”)!

High!Consequence!(“this'would'be'a'major'issue'for'

our'program”)!




!

Program! Projected!Changes:!Top!Concerns!Winter!Recreation!

Declining!snowpack!and!a!shorter!snow!season!(changes!in!snow)!

Increasing!winter!precipitation!and!more!intense!heavy!rain!(changes!in!precipitation)!

Increased!risk!of!forest!fires!and!changes!in!forest!health!(changes!in!vegetation)!!

Planning! Sea!level!rise!Increased!risk!of!forest!fires,!changes!in!forest!

health,!and!potential!for!expansion!of!nonKnative!invasive!species!(changes!in!vegetation)!!

Increasing!winter!precipitation,!more!intense!heavy!rain,!and!increased!flooding!(changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology)!

Stewardship! Increased!risk!of!forest!fires,!changes!in!forest!health,!and!potential!for!expansion!of!nonKnative!invasive!species!(changes!in!vegetation!and!other!impacts!to!significant!natural!resources)!!

Increasing!winter!precipitation,!more!intense!heavy!rain,!increased!flooding,!and!drier!summers!(changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology)!

Sea!level!rise!

!


RainKonKsnow!events!can!also!increase!plowing!and!grooming!costs!by!making!snow!heavier!and!more!difficult!to!move.!If!plowing!costs!exceed!the!amount!budgeted,!Winter!Recreation!may!stop!plowing!some!SnoKParks!before!the!season!ends!or!pull!funds!from!other!budgets!(e.g.,!maintenance)!to!keep!access!open.!!!Projected!declines!in!snowpack!due!to!climate!change!may!reduce!plowing!costs,!but!there!are!limits!to!this!benefit;!if!snowpack!is!too!low,!the!ability!to!operate!lower!and!midKelevation!SnoKParks!may!be!affected,!reducing!revenue.!RainKonKsnow!events!will!continue!to!be!an!issue!near!snowline!in!the!coming!decades!although!the!area!affected!by!rainKonKsnow!becomes!smaller!as!snowpack!declines!and!snowline!moves!higher!in!elevation.!!!!!Increasing'winter'precipitation'and'more'intense'heavy'rain'(changes'in'precipitation).!Another!climate!changeKrelated!concern!for!Winter!Recreation!is!increasing!winter!precipitation!and!more!intense!heavy!rain.!Increased!soil!saturation!leads!to!more!downed!trees,!especially!during!wind!events.!Downed!trees!can!block!access!to!SnoKPark!facilities!and!trails.!A!notable!example!was!the!winter!of!2015K16,!during!which!time!“precipitation!came!on!like!a!fire!hose,”!leading!to!a!record!number!of!downed!trees!for!Winter!Recreation!and!a!high!number!of!road!washouts.!According!to!staff,!the!program!did!not!recover!until!February.!!Winter!Recreation!is!responsible!for!removing!downed!trees!during!the!operating!season!(Dec!1KMarch!31),!so!the!financial!costs!to!the!program!of!more!downed!trees!are!twoKfold:!the!costs!of!clearing!the!downed!trees!plus!lost!recreation!fees!if!downed!trees!keep!an!area!out!of!service!for!an!extended!period.!The!impact!of!these!closures!on!revenue!is!amplified!by!the!limited!operating!season!for!Winter!Recreation;!closures!affecting!sites!for!multiple!weeks!can!end!up!being!a!significant!portion!of!the!operating!season!depending!on!snow!conditions.!If!the!trees!are!downed!during!other!times!of!the!year,!tree!removal!is!done!by!the!landowner!(USFS,!private!landowners,!etc.).!Impacts!on!Winter!Recreation!revenue!for!outKofKseason!downed!trees!only!occur!if!the!trees!have!not!been!cleared!in!time!for!winter!operations.!!!More!extreme!precipitation!can!also!lead!to!landslides!and!road!washouts,!limiting!access!to!SnoKParks!and!reducing!usable!trails!for!the!program.!Declining!snowpack!and!a!rising!snowline!will!contribute!to!these!impacts;!as!snowpack!declines!and!the!snowline!rises,!more!areas!previously!armored!by!snow!become!exposed!to!increasing!winter!rain!and!more!extreme!precipitation!events.!!Road!repair!for!natural!debris!slides!is!the!landowner’s!responsibility.!This!leaves!the!Winter!Recreation!Program!dependent!on!the!landowner’s!ability!to!make!a!timely!repair.!For!example,!Orr!Creek!SnoKPark!has!been!closed!since!December!2015!due!to!washout!of!USFS!23.!The!same!storm!event!led!to!multiple!washouts,!downed!trees,!and!a!landslide!at!other!nearby!SnoKParks!(Figure!1).!In!another!case,!a!snow!and!rockslide!on!Forest!Road!83!in!late!January!2017!blocked!access!to!Marble!Mountain!SnoKPark—a!popular!site!with!parking!for!nearly!250!vehicles—for!two!weeks!until!the!USFS!could!clear!the!slide.59!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!59!“Snow,!rocks!cleared!to!open!popular!Mount!St.!Helens!area”,!Allan!Brettman,'The'Oregonian/OregonLive,'February!13,!2017.!!

!


Emergency!reserve!funds!were!used!to!quickly!clear!the!snow!that!accumulated!behind!the!slide!and!reKopen!the!SnoKPark.!!!!Increased'risk'of'forest'fires'and'changes'

in'forest'health'due'to'climate'change'

impacts'on'insects'and'diseases'(changes'

in'vegetation).'Summer!wildfire!can!lead!to!SnoKPark!closures!if!access!roads!are!damaged!and/or!if!the!fire!leaves!large!areas!of!standing!dead!trees!that!are!considered!fall!hazards.!The!USFS!will!close!off!these!areas!for!safety!reasons!until!the!dead!trees!can!be!cleared,!which!can!sometimes!take!years.!For!example,!approximately!42!miles!of!SnoKPark!routes!in!the!Kings!Lake!System!have!been!closed!since!the!2015K16!season!due!tree!health!and!safety!concerns!resulting!from!the!2015!Tower!Fire!in!Colville!National!Forest.!Winter!salvage!logging!in!fireKdamaged!forests!can!also!lead!to!temporary!closures.!!!Adapting!program!operations!to!decreasing!snowpack!may!require!moving!SnoKPark!access!points!(e.g.,!parking!lots)!to!higher!elevations.!This!kind!of!shift!would!create!several!challenges.!First,!moving!the!SnoKParks!may!require!building!new!roads!at!a!time!when!the!USFS!is!focusing!more!on!decommissioning!roads.!Second,!moving!SnoKParks!to!higher!elevation!will!reduce!usable!trail!miles.!Staff!estimated!that!moving!the!system!up!in!elevation!could!shrink!the!amount!of!usable!trail!miles!from!3,300!miles!to!1,500!miles.!Moving!to!higher!elevation!would!also!push!more!trail!users!into!avalanche!territory,!increasing!safety!risks.!Staff!also!expect!more!road!washouts,!downed!trees,!and!problems!with!access!with!more!winter!precipitation!and!more!intense!heavy!rain!events.!Finally,!staff!expect!more!closures!related!to!winter!logging!as!fire!risk!increase.!!Planning!Key!concerns!for!Planning!were!climate!change!impacts!affecting!facility!siting!and!infrastructure!design.!This!included!impacts!associated!with!sea!level!rise,!changes!in!vegetation!(i.e.,!an!increased!risk!of!forest!fires,!changes!in!tree!health,!and!nonKnative!invasive!species),!and!changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology.!!!Sea'level'rise.'Planning!staff!considered!sea!level!rise!a!top!concern!given!the!potential!loss!of!lowKlying!park!lands,!the!number!of!historic!structures!that!may!be!affected!by!sea!level!rise!and!higher!storm!surge,!the!implications!of!sea!level!rise!for!site!planning!and!infrastructure!design,!and!the!potential!costs!associated!with!adapting!to!sea!level!rise.!Staff!noted!that!sea!level!rise!could!reduce!the!size!of!parks!where!upland!acquisition!is!not!an!option.!Options!for!moving!park!facilities!to!higher!ground!may!also!be!limited!unless!more!upland!areas!are!acquired.!Retreat!has!already!been!considered!in!a!few!

Figure!1.!Flooding,!landslides,!and!downed!trees!impacts!on!SnoKParks!access,!as!announced!in!a!Facebook!post!to!the!Washington!State!Snowmobile!Association.!

!


locations,!although!not!explicitly!in!response!to!sea!level!rise.!For!example,!Parks!had!plans!to!relocate!campground!facilities!at!Twin!Harbors!and!Cape!Disappointment!state!parks!prior!to!the!economic!recession!in!the!late!2000s!but!those!plans!were!put!on!hold!after!the!downturn.!!Sea!level!rise!will!also!exacerbate!problems!with!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!stability.!Staff!noted!significant!problems!with!shoreline!erosion!at!Manchester!State!Park,!the!site!of!several!historic!structures!dating!back!to!the!early!1900s.!Parks!is!using!soft!armoring!to!control!erosion!at!this!point.!Cama!Beach!and!Sequim!Bay!were!also!noted!as!areas!where!sea!level!rise!and!slope!stability!(exacerbated!by!heavy!rainfall)!have!been!issues.!!A!third!concern!with!sea!level!rise!noted!by!staff!is!saltwater!intrusion!into!groundwater!supplies.!This!is!already!a!concern!at!Blake!Island!State!Park.!Saltwater!intrusion!could!also!be!exacerbated!by!higher!demands!on!groundwater!supplies!as!summer!temperatures!increase.!!!Increased'risk'of'forest'fires,'changes'in'forest'health,'and'potential'for'expansion'of'non3native'invasive'

species'(changes'in'vegetation).'Another!issue!considered!by!Planning!staff!to!be!“hard!to!adapt!to”!and!“high!consequence”!is!changes!in!vegetation.!The!potential!for!more!wildfire!and!tree!health!issues!may!require!reconsidering!how!facilities!are!sited!in!areas!where!fire!risk!is!increasing.!More!tree!health!issues!also!increase!risks!to!public!safety.!Finally,!the!potential!for!more!wildfire!raises!concerns!about!the!ability!to!quickly!evacuate!campgrounds.!Noted!high!fire!danger!areas!included!25!Mile!Creek!(near!Lake!Chelan)!and!Squilchuck!State!Park!(near!Wenatchee).!!!Increasing'winter'precipitation,'more'intense'heavy'rain,'and'increased'flooding'(changes'in'precipitation'

and'hydrology).'Changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology,!particularly!the!potential!for!more!extreme!precipitation!events!and!flooding,!were!also!identified!as!issues!that!would!be!hard!to!adapt!to!in!most!cases!and!high!consequence.!Expectations!for!more!intense!heavy!rain!events,!increased!erosion,!and!bigger!floods!will!require!rethinking!assumptions!made!around!facility!siting!and!design,!stormwater!management,!culverts!and!bridges,!erosion!control,!and!flood!protection.!Options!to!move!facilities!may!be!limited!and!infrastructure!design!options!that!go!beyond!minimum!permit!requirements!and!increase!project!costs!will!be!hard!to!implement.!Maintaining!public!access!under!these!conditions!may!become!more!challenging!as!well,!creating!potential!inequities!for!disabled!visitors!if!Parks!is!unable!to!restore!access!to!levels!that!provide!access!for!all!users.!Staff!also!noted!that!changes!in!hydrology!may!require!additional!environmental!impact!mitigation,!although!it!is!uncertain!how!likely!this!would!be.!!!Other'issues.'Other!issues!identified!by!Planning!staff!included!the!potential!for!more!visitors!with!warmer!temperatures!and!potential!pressure!to!open!parks!earlier!(both!considered!manageable!from!an!ability!to!adapt!perspective!but!with!notable!consequences!to!operations!and!maintenance).!!!Stewardship'Key!concerns!for!Stewardship!were!climate!change!impacts!affecting!historic!structures!and!ecosystem!resilience.!This!included!impacts!associated!with!changes!in!vegetation!(i.e.,!an!increased!risk!of!forest!fires,!changes!in!tree!health,!and!nonKnative!invasive!species),!changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology,!and!sea!level!rise.!!!

!


Increased'risk'of'forest'fires,'changes'in'forest'health,'and'potential'for'expansion'of'non3native'invasive'

species'(changes'in'vegetation).'Climate!change!impacts!are!likely!to!directly!and!indirectly!affect!numerous!habitats,!ranging!from!eelgrass!beds!and!estuaries,!to!coastal!forests!and!balds.!The!potential!for!more!forest!fire!and!problems!with!tree!health!due!to!climate!change!impacts!on!forest!insects!and!disease!were!considered!moderately!difficult!to!adapt!to!(“medium”)!but!“high”!consequence!given!the!associated!risks!for!archaeological!sites!and!habitats.!More!specifically,!an!increase!in!forest!fires!could!expose!more!archaeological!sites.!As!those!sites!are!exposed,!the!risk!of!vandalism!at!those!sites!increases.!OffKsite!artifact!storage!may!need!to!be!expanded!to!safely!store!archaeological!finds.!!!One!of!the!greatest!impacts!of!wildfire!is!the!loss!of!significant!habitats!and!the!expansion!of!invasive!species.!!Some!habitats!are!so!limited!that!the!loss!of!even!one!can!have!an!impact!on!the!global!conservation!status!of!a!species!or!habitat.!!!NonKnative!invasive!species!expand!in!the!wake!of!fire,!especially!where!the!ground!is!disturbed!by!firefighting!personnel!and!equipment.!!In!addition!to!wildfire,!other!disturbance!events!can!also!create!opportunities!for!expansion!of!nonKnative!invasive!species,!such!as!cheatgrass!and!Scotch!broom,!into!native!habitats!where!they!have!the!potential!to!negatively!impact!species!or!habitats!of!conservation!concern.!Staff!are!already!working!on!fuels!reduction!and!invasive!species!control!but!additional!resources!would!be!needed!to!address!an!expansion!of!these!problems.!Uncertainty!about!the!ecological!consequences!of!more!fire!and!nonKnative!invasive!species!and!what!it!may!mean!for!environmental!stewardship!responsibilities!contributed!to!the!“high”!consequence!rating!for!changes!in!vegetation.!!!!Increasing'winter'precipitation,'more'intense'heavy'rain,'increased'flooding,'drier'summers'(changes'in'

precipitation'and'hydrology).''Changes!in!precipitation!and!hydrology!are!expected!to!affect!parks!in!ways!that!were!both!considered!“hard!to!adapt!to”!and!“high!consequence.”!More!winter!precipitation!and!more!intense!heavy!rain!events!could!lead!to!more!trail!erosion!and!washouts,!a!greater!chance!of!landslides!and!land!movement,!and!flooding.!Higher!groundwater!levels,!which!can!lead!to!more!localized!flooding,!may!also!become!a!more!common!problem.!Any!of!these!changes!could!damage!historical!buildings!and!expose!more!archaeological!sites,!increasing!the!potential!for!vandalism.!Staff!rated!these!impacts!as!“hard!to!adapt!to”!given!the!limited!ability!to!be!proactive!on!these!issues,!the!high!cost!to!historical!structures,!and!the!potential!for!sensitive!habitats!to!be!affected.!!!At!the!other!end!of!the!water!volume!spectrum,!Stewardship!staff!noted!that!drier!summers!and!lower!summer!streamflows!could!increase!water!demand!at!parks.!Securing!additional!water!rights!to!meet!demand!would!be!difficult!for!newer!parks!with!junior!water!rights.!!Lower!summer!water!levels!could!also!have!negative!impacts!on!salmon!and!related!environmental!restoration!activities.!!!!Sea'level'rise.!Stewardship!staff!felt!that!the!ability!to!adapt!to!sea!level!rise!would!vary!by!site!but!the!overall!consequences!would!still!be!high.!A!key!concern!overall!is!the!large!number!of!historical!structures!and!archaeological!features!that!could!be!threatened!by!inundation,!higher!storm!surge,!and!erosion.!The!cost!of!moving!or!protecting!these!sites!will!be!high.!Stewardship!staff!also!noted!that!sea!level!rise!could!impact!a!variety!of!species!and!their!associated!habitats,!including!eelgrass!beds,!salt!marshes,!and!coastal!forests!and!prairies.!A!notable!impact!would!be!a!threat!to!nesting!habitat!used!by!the!western!snowy!plover,!a!shorebird!listed!as!threatened!under!the!Endangered!Species!Act!and!

!


endangered!in!Washington!State.!Parks!has!a!significant!portion!of!that!species’!habitat!in!Washington!State.!!Other'notable'impacts.!Like!Planning!staff,!Stewardship!staff!linked!warming!seasonal!temperatures!to!the!likelihood!of!higher!visitor!use!at!facilities,!including!higher!demand!in!what!is!currently!considered!the!shoulder!season.!Use!in!these!seasons!could!lead!to!impacts!on!natural!resources,!such!as!breeding!wildlife.!Recreational!preferences!may!also!shift!in!ways!that!affect!Stewardship!and!require!Parks!to!adapt!operations!and!facility!planning.!!!!

!

Appendix!A:!Statewide!Workshop!Summary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Page!103!

Table&3.!Preliminary!assessment!of!climate!change!impacts!for!Winter!Recreation,!Planning,!and!Stewardship!programs,!as!identified!and!rated!by!staff!during!the!Statewide!Programs!workshop.!

WINTER&RECREATION& &


Related&impacts(s)&to&the&region&and/or&individual&parks! Ability&to&adjust&& Consequence&

Increasing*temperatures:*•! Warmer!seasonal!

temperatures!•! More!extreme!heat!

events!

No#directly#relevant#impacts#on#winter#recreation;#mediated#through#other#impacts#(e.g.,#changes#in#snow,#drought#stress#on#vegetation)!

n/a! n/a!

Impacts*on*snow:*•! Lower!snowpack!•! Shorter!snow!

season!•! Changes!in!snow!

quality!are!uncertain#

•! Low!snowpack!can&result&in&a&shorter&season!and!reduced!permit&sales.!!

•! RainIonIsnow!events!will!continue!to!be!an!issue!near!the!snowline,!even!as!that!snowline!moves!up.!Current!issues!related!to!management!of!rainIonIsnow!events!continue!in!SnoIParks!located!in!future!snowline!transition!zones.!!!

Medium.&Can!use!a!snow!park!zone!methodology!to!reach!higher!elevations!(as!a!way!of!adjusting!to!lower!snowpack)!but!need!room!for!parking,!which!can!be!difficult.!Can!adjust!season!lengths!for!warmer!locations.!

High.!Although!some!adjustment!is!possible,!the!net!result!of!projected!losses!in!snowpack!is!potential!loss!of!the!program!(no!snow!=!no!revenue=!no!services).!


winter,!spring!precipitation!




•! Increased!winter!precipitation!and!more!intense!heavy!rain!events!may&lead&to&more&erosion,&landslides,&and&washouts,!affecting!trails!and!roads!to!SnoIPark!facilities.!Even!when!people!can!still!access!the!trails,!grooming!and!other!equipment!cannot,!affecting!the!ability!to!maintain!trails.!!

Hard.&Landslides!and!erosion!can!be!expensive!to!deal!with!and!Winter!Recreation!does!not!have!a!budget!for!road!repair;!repairs!are!the!landowner’s!responsibility!(e.g.,!USFS,!private!landowners,!other!state!agencies).!If!the!landowner!does!not!repair!the!road,!sites!may!need!to!be!closed.!

High.&Loss!of!access!to!SnoIPark!sites!and!trails!can!have!a!significant!impact!on!service!levels!and!revenue.!!!

•! Increased!ground!saturation!can&lead&to&more&downed&trees,!particularly!during!wind!events.!The!downed!trees!can!block!trails,!requiring!removal!by!Parks,!the!US!Forest!Service,!or!private!landowners.!!

Hard.&Parks!is!responsible!for!clearing!downed!trees!during!the!operating!season!(via!contractors).!The!downed!trees!

High.&Winter!Recreation!has!a!limited!season!for!making!revenue;!any!loss!of!access!to!SnoIPark!sites!and!trails!can!

!


WINTER&RECREATION& &



! need!to!be!cleared!quickly!to!maintain!service!levels.!It!can!take!days!to!restore!access!to!small!amounts!of!trail!after!large!blowdown!events.!!

impact!service!levels!and!revenue.!


streamflows!•! Increasing!flood!

risk!!•! Lower,!warmer!

summer!streamflows!!


•! Higher!winter!streamflows!may&lead&to&more&river&and&streambank&erosion,!including!bridge!scour&and!trail!erosion.!!!!

Hard.&!Repairs!can!be!difficult!and!costly.!&

High.!Washouts!and!damage!to!water!crossings!(or!even!concern!about!potential!damage)!can!lead!SnoIPark!closures,!affecting!service!levels!and!revenue.!

Other#issues#discussed#but#not#rated:#!•! Changes!in!groundwater!levels!can!cause!sinkholes!but!they!are!geographically!scattered!

Changes*in*vegetation:*•! Increased!drought!

stress!•! Increased!risk!of!

wildfire!•! Impacts!on!tree!

health!from!insects,!disease!

•! Fires!can&result&in&loss&of&forests&adjoining&trails!and&damage&access&roads&(via!the!fire!or!postIfire!erosion).&Some!recreationalists!like!the!terrain!that!fire!opens!up!but!it!can!also!lead!snowmobilers!into!more!dangerous!areas,!creating!safety!risks.!!

•! PostIfire!tree!mortality!and!potential!for!more!insects,!disease,!and!pathogens!affecting!tree!health!can&increase&the&risk&of&downed&trees&on!SnoIPark!roads!and!trails.!!

•! PostIfire!tree!mortality!can!lead!the!US!Forest!Service!to!block&off&large&areas&considered&dangerous!(e.g.,!due!to!hazard!trees).!These!closures&can&last&years,!affecting!SnoIPark!activities!for!an!extended!time.!!!

•! Winter!logging!after!a!big!fire!(sometimes!permitted!by!the!USFS)!will!require&temporary&closure&of&trails&and/or&SnoMParks!in!that!area.!!

Hard.&Downed!trees!and/or!closures!required!by!winter!logging!do!not!take!a!long!time!to!adjust.!Only!shut!out!for!a!season!or!two.!Can!recover!quickly.!If!snowpack!is!less!and!the!trail!systems!move!up!in!elevation,!winter!logging!could!be!a!larger!issue.!!

High.&!Can!increase!trail!maintenance!costs,!delay!opening!of!trails!(e.g.,!2015I16),!or!lead!to!trail!or!SnoIPark!closures!for!safety!reasons.!!

!


!

PLANNING& &





events!

•!Warmer!temperatures!are!likely&to&increase&visitation&to&Parks,!especially!the!more!popular!Parks.!Increased!potential!that!those!parks!will!be!“overrun.”!

!

Medium.&Heavier!usage!during!nicer!weather!is!already!an!issue!that!the!region!has!to!manage;!however,!this!increase!could!be!more!difficult!to!manage!at!more!popular!parks.!

Moderate.!Planning!processes!for!higher!volume!areas!are!more!difficult.!!!

•! !Staff!may&see&pressure&to&open&parks&earlier!(for!those!that!are!closed!seasonally)!

!

Easy.&Opening!earlier!is!relatively!easy!to!accommodate!(note:!see!regional!workshops!for!potential!issues!related!to!staffing).!&

High.!Earlier!openings!would!have!additional!costs!for!operations.&

•!Warmer!temperatures!may&require&reMthinking&orientation&of&buildings&and!other!infrastructure!(e.g.,!how/where!to!put!parking).!

Easy&to&medium.&Adjusting!site!design!and!planning!with!climate!change!in!mind!is!relatively!easy!for!new!sites!but!gets!more!challenging!with!existing!sites!

Medium.&May!have&additional!costs!and!you!are!deciding!on!infrastructure!that!has!to!last!30!years!or!longer.!!

•!Warmer!temperatures!may&lead&to&higher&groundwater&use.&!

Hard,&where!water!may!be!limited!and/or!water!rights!are!an!issue.!!

Medium.!May!increase!costs!to!some!degree.!!!



quality!are!uncertain!

•! Lower!snowpack!may&require&adjusting&assumptions&about&the&viability&of&snowMdependent&sites&and&longMterm&plans&for!current!and!future!sites.!!

•! Lower!snowpack!may&impact&relationships!with!recreation!advocacy!groups!and&affect&revenue.!

Easy!to!hard.!The!ability!to!adjust!to!different!assumptions!about!winter!recreation!could!be!hard,!depending!on!the!site.!For!example,!Mt.!Spokane!would!be!hard,!Lake!Easton!would!be!moderate,!other!locations!might!be!easy.!Changes!are!generally!not!hard!to!propose!but!implementing!the!changes!can!be!hard.!!!

Medium.&Revenue!can!be!affected!but!there!are!fewer!parks!where!snow!is!an!issue!relative!to!other!Parks!(looking!systemIwide).!Public!may!become!less!supportive!of!Parks’!priorities!if!relationships!with!recreation!advocacy!groups!change.!!

!


PLANNING& &








!!

•! More!winter!precipitation!and!heavier!extreme!precipitation!events!will!require!rethinking&how&Planning&handles&stormwater.&Most!stormwater!facilities!are!dealing!with!low!level!rain!versus!downpours.!This!may&require&going&above&minimum&permit&requirements.!

Medium&to&hard.&Designs!will!need!to!leave!more!room!to!manage!stormwater!(e.g.,!parking!lot!sizing!to!handle!stormwater!runoff).!May!have!to!include!more!filtration!rather!than!dissipation.!Going!above!permit!requirements!would!be!difficult.!

Medium&to&high.&May!increase!project!costs,!for!which!may!be!difficult!to!secure!funding.!!!

•! Heavier!winter!precipitation!may&lead&to&more&erosion!on!steep!slopes!and!trails.!Increased!erosion!could&affect&where&structures&are&sited&along&cliffs&and&trails,!including!culvert!and!footbridge!design,!and&public&access.!!

Hard.&Dealing!with!erosion!can!be!difficult!and!costly;!anything!that!increases!the!costs!of!infrastructure!can!be!a!hard!sell!to!make.!Maintaining!public!access!can!be!difficult.!!!&

High.!Budget!implications!if!design!solutions!are!costly.!Impacts!on!access!can!create!social!equity!issues;!if!unable!to!fully!address!loss!of!access!due!to!erosion,!the!resulting!conditions!may!mean!that!people!with!disabilities!won’t!be!able!to!access!park!amenities!while!ableIbodied!visitors!still!can).!Lost!revenue!if!a!favorite!site!is!inaccessible.!Parks!may!need!to!buy!more!land!to!get!to!an!easier!spot.!&


streamflows!•! Increasing!flood!

risk!!•! Lower,!warmer!

summer!streamflows!!

•! Higher!winter!streamflows!may&lead&to&more&streambank&erosion,!including!bridge!scour!and!erosion!of!trails!adjoining!rivers!and!streams.!This!may&require&changes&in&where&Planning&locates&facilities!in!proximity!to!rivers!and!streams!and!how!facilities,!culverts,!bridges,!and!trails!are!designed.!!

•! Changes!in!hydrology!may&require&more&environmental&impact&mitigation,!although!it!is!not!clear!how!likely!this!would!be.!!

Medium&to&Hard.!For!some!parks,!you!can’t!get!out!of!the!flood!zone!(e.g.,!Flaming!Geyser)!or!have!limited!space!to!move!facilities.!May!have!to!look!at!acquiring!property!to!make!those!moves.!Changes!to!infrastructure!design!and!increased!

High,!due!to!financial!implications!and!potential!obligations!associated!with!more!environmental!mitigation!(if!required).!

!


PLANNING& &




! environmental!mitigation!can!be!costly.!!

Other#issues#discussed#but#not#rated:#!•! Lower!summer!water!levels!could!reduce!flows!over!popular!scenic!waterfalls,!potentially!leading!to!fewer!visits.!!!





•! The!potential!for!more!issues!with!tree!health!would&require&changes&in&how&facilities&are&sited&in!relation!to!trees&and!could&result&in&more&campground&closures.!!

•! More!tree!health!issues!increase&risks&to&public&safety.!

Hard.!Although!tree!health!is!an!issue!staff!already!deal!with,!changing!facility!siting!can!be!difficult.!

High.&Taking!out!trees!can!be!difficult;!people!are!emotionally!tied!to!the!trees.!!

Sea*level*rise:&•! Increased!coastal!

flooding!•! Increased!surge,!

wave!energy!!•! Increased!erosion!•! Inundation!of!lowI

lying!areas!•! Increased!saltwater!

intrusion!in!groundwater!wells,!septic!


•! Sea!level!rise!may&require&changes&in&facility&siting&and&design.&!

•! Sea!level!rise!could!increase!bluff!erosion!and!affect&beach&and&sand&migration!(e.g.!Cape!Disappointment).!

•! Loss&of&lowMlying&park&lands,!including!beaches,!to!permanent!inundation!may!shrink!park!sizes.!

•! Historical!structures!may&become&more&vulnerable&to&damage!from!sea!level!rise!and!storm!surge.!!

!

Hard.!Dealing!with!the!impacts!of!sea!level!rise!will!be!expensive.!!!

High,&due!to&cost!implications.!For!example,!boating!facilities!would!have!to!be!designed!with!taller!piles.!&

!

!


STEWARDSHIP&





events!

•!Warmer!temperatures!could&increase&park&visits&in&the&shoulder&seasons&and&shift&visitor&preferences,&the&seasonality&of&recreation.&&

•!Warmer!temperatures!and!more!extreme!heat!events&could&increase&pressure&to&use&air&conditioning&&&

!

Medium.&Can!make!adjustments!but!effects!on!habitat!and!ecology!may!be!difficult!to!mitigate.!!

High.!Could!affect!nesting!season!and!have!bird/human!impacts!!



quality!are!uncertain!

No#impacts#directly#related#to#changes#in#snow#discussed;#related#impacts#on#streamflow#discussed#in#hydrologic#change##

! !






•! More!winter!precipitation!and!more!intense!heavy!rain!events!could&wash&out&more&trails,!requiring!repairs!(where!possible)!or!reIrouting!of!affected!trails.!!

•! More!winter!precipitation!and!more!intense!heavy!rain!events!could&lead&to&increased&landslides&and&contribute&to&more&erosion,!affecting!historical!buildings.!!

•! More!winter!precipitation!could&raise&groundwater&levels&in&winter,!contributing!to!localized!flooding!in!low!elevation!areas.!!

•! Lower!summer!precipitation!could&increase&the&demand&for&water!even!as!getting!water!rights!for!new!park!becomes!more!difficult.!!

Hard.!Increased!erosion!may!require!moving!facilities,!which!is!difficult!to!do.!The!ability!to!be!proactive!is!limited.!

High.!Potential!for!costly!damage!to!or!loss!of!historical!structures.!ReIrouting!trails!can!lead!to!creating!other!trails!that!can!affect!habitats!and!species.!Sensitive!habitats!may!be!affected!(e.g.,!wetlands).!


streamflows!

•! The!potential!for!bigger!floods!and!increased!erosion!could&impact&historical&buildings&and&expose&more&archaeological&sites,&increasing!potential!for!vandalism!of!those!sites.!!

Hard.&See!reasons!related!to!changes!in!precipitation.!Additionally,!threats!to!or!increased!exposure!of!

High.!Potential!for!costly!damage!to!or!loss!of!historical!structures.!

!


STEWARDSHIP&






•! Lower!summer!streamflow!would&negatively&affect&salmon,&vernal&pools.!!

•! Lower!summer!streamflows!and!lower!water!levels!at!water!features!(where!that!occurs)!could&affect&visitation.!

archaeological!sites!may!require!enlarging!offIsite!artifact!storage.!





•! More!frequent!and/or!larger!fires!could&expose&archaeological&resources,!increasing!potential!for!vandalism!of!those!sites.!!

•! Expansion!of!nonInative!species!such!as!cheatgrass!or!Scotch!broom!(Class!B!nonInative!invasive!species)!could&negatively&affect&native&habitats.!!

Medium.!Staff!are!already!working!on!fuels!reduction,!managing!invasives,!and!reducing!habitat!fragmentation!by!increasing!habitat!connectivity!along!elevation!gradients.!An!expansion!of!these!activities!would!require!additional!resources.!

High.&!Ecological!consequences!of!more!damage!to!tree!health!and!fire!in!the!Parks!system!is!not!well!understood.!Native!species/habitats!may!be!degraded!or!lost!entirely.!

Sea*level*rise:&•! Increased!coastal!

flooding!•! Increased!surge,!

wave!energy!!•! Increased!erosion!•! Inundation!of!lowI

lying!areas!•! Increased!saltwater!

intrusion!in!groundwater!wells,!septic!


Parks!has!a!lot!of!historical&structures&and&archaeological&features&(e.g.,!shell!middens)&near!the!shore!or!on!coastal!bluffs!that&could&be&threatened&by&erosion,&higher&storm&surge,!or&inundation.!!!Coastal!species/habitats!may!be!lost.!For!example,!shoreline!habitat&for&western&snowy&plover!(listed!as!Threatened!under!the!Endangered!Species!Act)!could&be&negatively&affected!by!rising!sea!level.!!!!!!!! !

Will&vary&by&site.!Some!places!will!be!easier!to!adjust!than!others.!Dealing!with!the!impacts!of!sea!level!rise!will!be!expensive.!Sea!level!rise!may!require!moving!or!abandoning!facilities.!Some!parks!don’t!have!room!to!move!to!higher!ground!or!are!highly!constrained!by!local!plans,!federal!regulations,!floodplain!regulations,!etc.!Engineering!solutions!that!may!not!be!allowed.!!!!

High,&due!to&cost!implications!and!loss!of!irreplaceable!species/habitats.!For!snowy!plover,!State!Parks!has!a!significant!portion!of!that!species’!habitat!in!Washington!State!so!losses!of!that!habitat!could!have!important!implications.!&

!

!

Appendix!B:!Northwest!Region!Climate!Summary!! ! Page!110!

Appendix(B:(Northwest(Region(Climate(Summary(((Prepared(by(((Harriet(Morgan,(Lara(Whitely(Binder,(and(Dan(Siemann(University(of(Washington(Climate(Impacts(Group(!!!

((( (

!


Climate60!!Temperature.*The!northwest!region!of!Washington!State!is!projected!to!warm!rapidly!throughout!the!21st!century,!as!a!result!of!greenhouse!gases!associated!with!human!activities.!This!warming!is!projected!to!occur!across!all!seasons,!with!the!most!warming!occurring!during!summer.!Average!annual!temperature!in!the!northwest!region!of!Washington!is!likely!to!increase!+5.6!to!+9.4°F!by!the!2080s61,!with!extreme!heat!events!becoming!more!frequent!and!extreme!cold!events!less!frequent.!!!Precipitation.*Changes!in!annual!and!seasonal!precipitation!will!continue!to!be!primarily!driven!by!yearRtoRyear!variations!rather!than!longRterm!trends,!but!heavy!rainfall!events!are!projected!to!become!more!frequent!and!severe!throughout!the!21st!century.!!!Water*Resources*Northwest!Washington!is!projected!to!experience!a!declining!snowpack,!a!shifting!balance!between!snow!and!rain,!changes!in!streamflow!timing,!increasing!flood!risk,!and!lower!summer!minimum!flows!as!a!result!of!warming!temperatures.!The!largest!changes!are!projected!for!midRelevation!basins!with!significant!snow!accumulation!(today’s!soRcalled!“mixed!rain!and!snow”!watersheds;!Figure!1).!!Snowpack.*As!air!temperatures!warm,!snowpack!is!projected!to!decline!in!winter!and!melt!more!rapidly!during!spring!and!summer.!Average!spring!snowpack!(April!1!SWE)!in!northwest!Washington!is!projected!to!decline!between!–55%!and!–73%!by!the!2080s!(2070R2099,!relative!to!1970R1999),!on!average,!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!and!a!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!!!Warming!air!temperatures!will!drive!the!freezing!level!to!higher!elevations,!which!will!result!in!a!greater!proportion!of!winter!precipitation!falling!as!rain!rather!than!snow!(Figure!1).!This!increase!in!winter!rainfall!will!increase!winter!flood!risk!in!midRelevation,!transient!basins.!! !

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!60!!!!!Information!in!this!summary!sheet!is!from: Mauger,!G.S.,!J.H.!Casola,!H.A.!Morgan,!R.L.!Strauch,!B.!Jones,!B.!Curry,!T.M.!Busch!Isaksen,!L.!Whitely!Binder,!M.B.!Krosby,!and!A.K.!Snover,!2015.!State!of!Knowledge:!Climate!Change!in!Puget!Sound.!Report!prepared!for!the!Puget!Sound!Partnership!and!the!National!Oceanic!and!Atmospheric!Administration.!Climate!Impacts!Group,!University!of!Washington,!Seattle.!doi:10.7915/CIG93777D!61!!!!!Under!RCP!4.5!and!RCP!8.5,!respectively.!!

!


!

!Figure*1.*Changing*hydrology*with*warming.*Maps!above!indicate!current!and!future!watershed!classifications,!based!on!the!proportion!of!winter!precipitation!stored!in!peak!annual!snowpack.!Graphs!below!indicate!current!and!future!average!monthly!streamflow!for!these!watershed!types.!Both!compare!average!historical!conditions!(1916R2006)!and!projected!future!conditions!for!two!time!periods,!the!2040s!(2030R2059)!and!the!2080s!(2070R2099),!under!a!medium!greenhouse!gas!scenario!(A1B).!Green!shading!in!the!maps!indicates!warm!(“rainRdominant”)!watersheds,!which!receive!little!winter!precipitation!in!the!form!of!snow.!In!these!basins,!streamflow!peaks!during!winter!months!and!warming!is!projected!to!have!little!effect!(below,!left).!Blue!indicates!cold!(“snowRdominant”)!watersheds,!that!is,!cold!basins!that!receive!more!than!40%!of!their!winter!precipitation!as!snow.!Depending!on!elevation,!these!basins!are!likely!to!experience!increasing!winter!precipitation!as!rain!and!increased!winter!flows!(below,!right).!The!most!sensitive!basins!to!warming!are!the!watersheds!that!are!near!the!current!snowline!(“mixed!rain!and!snow”),!shown!in!red.!These!are!middle!elevation!basins!that!receive!a!mixture!of!rain!and!snow!in!the!winter,!and!are!projected!to!experience!significant!increases!in!winter!flows!and!decreases!in!spring!flows!as!a!result!of!warming!(below,!center).!Source:!Hamlet!et!al.,!2013.!

!

6.1!*

!


Forests*Forests!in!northwest!Washington!are!projected!to!experience*a*continued*shift*in*the*geographic!distribution!of!species,!changes!in!forest!growth!and!productivity,!increasing!fire!activity,!and!changing!risks!from!insects,!diseases,!and!invasive!species.!These!changes!have!significant!implications!for!ecosystem!composition!and!species!interactions.!Changes!are!projected!to!be!most!pronounced!at!higher!elevations,!where!increasing!air!temperatures!and!decreasing!snowpack!can!reduce!habitat!quality!for!some!species!but!benefit!others!via!a!longer!snowRfree!season!and!increased!biological!productivity.!Many!of!the!changes!expected!for!Northwest!forests!are!likely!to!be!driven!by!increases!in!the!frequency!and!intensity!of!disturbances!such!as!fire,!insect!outbreaks,!and!disease.!*

Climate!change!is!expected!to!increase!fire!activity!in!northwest!Washington,!even!though!the!area!is!not!thought!to!have!been!fire!prone!historically.!Warming!air!temperatures!and!drier!conditions!are!the!primary!mechanism!leading!to!projected!increases!in!area!burned!for!Washington!State.!!*

Sea*Level*Rise**Sea!level!is!projected!to!continue!rising!through!the!21st!century.!By!2100,!sea!level!rise!along!Washington’s!central!and!southern!coast!and!in!Puget!Sound!is!projected!to!increase!by!+4!to!+56!inches!by!2100,!relative!to!2000.!!!Vertical!land!movement!is!a!process!which!plays!an!important!role!in!determining!local!and!regional!sea!level!rise.!Washington!State!is!a!tectonically!active!area!which!causes!the!land!surface!to!rise!and!fall!over!time.!For!example,!the!land!surface!of!Neah!Bay!along!the!Northwest!Olympic!Peninsula!is!currently!experiencing!uplift.!Conversely,!Seattle!and!surrounding!areas!are!subsiding,!which!exacerbates!the!local!effects!of!sea!level!as!the!land!surface!is!sinking.!!!Projected!Changes*in*the*Climate*of*Northwest*Washington*!!Temperature! !Annual*Temperature*–*

Projected*Projected!increase!in!average!annual!temperature!for!the!2050s!(2040R2069),!relative!to!1970R1999,!for!northwest!Washington:!!

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.3°F!(range:!+3.0!to!+5.6°F)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+5.6°F!(range:!+4.5!to!+7.3°F)!!

Projected!increase!in!average!annual!temperature!for!the!2080s!(2070R2099),!relative!to!1970R1999,!for!Washington!state:!


Temperature*–*Seasonal*

********

Projected!increase!in!seasonal!temperatures!for!the!2050s!(2040R2069),!relative!to!1970R1999,!for!northwest!Washington:!!Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.0°F!(range:!+2.9!to!+5.1°F)!

!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+5.0°F!(range:!+3.2!to!+6.7°F)!!

Spring!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.0°F!(range:!+2.4!to!+5.4°F)!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+4.9°F!(range:!+3.1!to!+7.8°F)!!

Summer!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.2°F!(range:!+3.4!to!+7.7°F)!

!


********************

Number*of*Days*Above*Warm*Thresholds***

!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+7.6°F!(range:!+5!to!+9.9°F)!!

Fall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.1°F!(range:!+2.6!to!+5.7°F)!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+5.6°F!(range:!+3.9!to!+7.3°F)!!

Projected!increase!in!seasonal!temperatures!for!the!2080s!(2060R2099),!relative!to!1970R1999,!for!northwest!Washington:!!Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.0°F!(range:!+4.4!to!+6.4°F)!


Spring!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.4°F!(range:!+3.9!to!+8.4°F)!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+8.1°F!(range:!+5.3!to!+11.6°F)!!

Summer!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!+6.5°F!(range:!+4.7!to!+9.3°F)!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+11.3°F!(range:!+9.1!to!+15.4°F)!!

Fall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.2°F!(range:!+3.8!to!+7.2°F)!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+9.2°F!(range:!+6.6!to!+11.3°F)!!

Projected!increase!in!the!number!of!days!above!various!thresholds!(80°F,!90°F,!100°F)!for!the!historical!period!(1970R1999),!2050s,!and!the!2080s.!*2050s**!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!80°F:!******Historical!(1970R1999):!10!days*! RCP!4.5:!+18!days!(range:!+12!to!+28!days)!*! RCP!8.5:!+27!days!(range:!+19!to!+38!days)*!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!90°F:!!!!!!!!Historical!(1970R1999):!1!day!RCP!4.5:!+4!days!(range:!+2!to!+6!days)!*RCP!8.5:!+6!days!(range:!+3!to!+11!days)*

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!100°F:!!!!!!Historical!(1970R1999):!0!days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

RCP!4.5:!+0!days!(range:!+0!to!+0!days)!*RCP!8.5:!+0!days!(range:!+0!to!+1!days)*

2080s**!!!!!!!!!!!!!!80°F:!********Historical!(1970R1999):!10!days!***

RCP!4.5:!+24!days!(range:!+16!to!+36!days)!*RCP!8.5:!+50!days!(range:!+35!to!+68!days)*

!90°F:!!! Historical!(1970R1999):!1!day!

RCP!4.5:!+5!days!(range:!+3!to!+8!days)!*RCP!8.5:!+17!days!(range:!+8!to!+29!days)*!

100°F:!!!!!!!Historical!(1970R1999):!0!days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!RCP!4.5:!+0!days!(range:!+0!to!+1!days)!*RCP!8.5:!+2!days!(range:!+0!to!+4!days)*

!!

Precipitation! !Annual*Precipitation*–*

Projected*Projected!change!in!average!annual!precipitation!for!the!2050s!(2040R2069),!relative!to!1970R1999,!for!northwest!Washington:!!

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+3.9%!(range:!+0.4!to!+11.4%)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+4.7%!(range:!−2.4!to!+13.1%)!

!


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!62!!These!numbers!show!projected!changes!in!April!1st!Snow!Water!Equivalent!(SWE).!SWE!is!a!measure!of!the!total!amount!of!water!contained!in!the!snowpack.!April!1st!is!the!approximate!current!timing!of!peak!annual!snowpack!in!the!mountains!of!the!Northwest.!!

!Projected!increase!in!average!annual!precipitation!for!the!2080s!(2070R2099),!relative!to!1970R1999,!for!Washington!state:!

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+6.1%!(range:!−0.2!to!+9.9%)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+6.6%!(range:!+0.7!to!+8.8%)!

!Seasonal*Precipitation*–*

Projected*Projected!change!in!seasonal!precipitation!for!the!2050s!(2040R2069),!relative!to!1970R1999,!for!northwest!Washington:!!Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+9.8%!(range:!−1.8!to!+21.4%)!

!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+10.5%!(range:!+1.8!to!+19.6%)!!

Spring!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+2.5%!(range:!−9.0!to!+13.3%)!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+4.1%!(range:!−6.8!to!+13.3%)!!

Summer!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−22.4%!(range:!−44.5!to!−6.4%)!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−22.5%!(range:!−50.1!to!−1.2%)!!

Fall!!!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.4%!(range:!−5.9!to!+12.8%)!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+6.1%!(range:!−2.5!to!+18.7%)!

!Projected!increase!in!seasonal!precipitation!for!the!2080s!(2060R2099),!relative!to!1970R1999,!for!northwest!Washington:!!Winter!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+11.0%!(range:!+1.1!to!+15.9%)!

!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+14.5%!(range:!+5.9!to!+22.5%)!!

Spring!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+1.9!%!(range:!−2.8!to!+10.3%)!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+2.9%!(range:!−6.6!to!+11.2%)!

*Summer!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−19.9!%!(range:!−36.9!to!−10.2%)!

!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−27.4%!(range:!−52.7!to!+10.1%)!!

Fall!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+11.4%!(range:!+1.8!to!+20.9%)!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+9.8%!(range:!+1.4!to!+15.2!%)!

Heavy*Precipitation*–*Projected*

******

**

Projected!changes!in!western*Oregon*and*Washington!precipitation!extremes!for!the!2080s!(2070R2099,!relative!to!1970R1999)!for!a!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario:!!Annual!99th!percentile!of!24Rhour!precipitation:!

+22%!(range:!+5!to!+34%)!

Frequency!of!exceeding!the!historical!99th!percentile!of!24Rhour!precipitation:!!Historical!(1970R1999):!!!2!days!/!year!!Future!(2070R2099):!!!!!!!!7!days!/!year!(range:!4!to!9!days!/!year)!

Snow!April*1st*Snowpack*

**

Projected!changes!in!northwest!Washington!average!April!1st!snowpack62;!for!the!2050s!(2040R2069)!and!the!2080s!(2070R2099),!relative!to!1970R1999:!2050s*

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −43.2%!(range:!−51.4!to!−28.2%)!

!


!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!63!!Snow!season!length!is!defined!as!the!number!of!days!between!the!date!of!10%!accumulation!and!90%!melt,!relative!to!annual!maximum!snow!water!equivalent.!!64!!!!!Projected!change!for!ten!global!climate!models!for!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!

*****

********Snow*Season*Length*

********

**

*

High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −50.8%!(range:!−64.6!to!−47.6%)!!

2080s*Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −54.7%!(range:!−64.6!to!−34.4%)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −73.2%!(range:!−84.6!to!−57.2%)!!

Increasing!air!temperatures!are!projected!to!result!in!a!shortening!of!the!length!of!the!snow!season.63!Projected!change!in!snow!season!length!for!the!2050s!(2040R2069)!and!2080s*(2070R2099),!relative!to!1970R1999,!for!northwest!Washington:!*2050s*

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −35.8!days!(range:!−43.7!to!−25.9!days)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −47.2!days!(range:!−64.4!to!−28!days)!

*2080s*

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −50!days!(range:!−62.8!to!−38.6!days)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −82.6!days!(range:!−99!to!−58.2!days)!

Streamflow! Projected!Long7term!Change!Streamflow*timing! Peak!streamflows!are!projected!to!occur!earlier!in!many!snowmeltRinfluenced!rivers!in!

the!Northwest.!!

•! Change!in!the!timing!of!peak!streamflow!for!the!Skagit!River!and!the!Green!River!for!the!2080s!(2070R2099,!relative!to!1970R1999).!Average!and!range!for!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario64:!!

o! Skagit!R:!R22!days!(R36!to!R13!days)!o! Green!R:!R38!days!(R50!to!R31!days)!

Stream*temperatures* Water!temperatures!are!projected!to!increase.!!

•! Northwest!Washington!rivers!are!projected!to!increasingly!experience!average!August!stream!temperatures!stressful!to!salmon!(in!excess!of!64°F)!and!char!(in!excess!of!54°F).!!

•! Increase!in!the!number!of!river!miles!in!excess!of!thermal!tolerances,!on!average!for!the!2080s!(2070R2099,!relative!to!1970R1999)!and!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario,!for!the!Skagit!River!and!the!Green!River:!

o! Skagit!R:!!+566!mi.!(>54!°F;!char),!!!!!!!!!!!!!+121!mi.!(>64!°F;!salmon)!o! Green!R:!!+173!mi.!(>54!°F;!char),!!!!!!!!!!!!!+73!mi.!(>64!°F;!salmon)!

!


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!65!!!!Sea!level!rise!projections!were!obtained!from!the!2007!IPCC!report;!streamflow!projections!were!based!on!10!global!climate!model!projections!and!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!Flood!simulations!assume!all!levees!would!remain!intact,!although!they!could!be!overtopped.!When!levee!failure!scenarios!are!included,!the!increase!in!flooded!area!is!much!less!pronounced.!With!levee!failure,!much!of!the!floodplain!would!be!inundated!even!in!the!absence!of!climate!change!–!increased!flows!and!higher!sea!levels!do!increase!water!depths,!but!do!not!significantly!change!the!area!flooded.!!66!!!!The!7Q10!flow!is!the!lowest!7Rday!average!flow!that!occurs!on!average!once!every!10!years.!7Q10!flows!are!a!common!standard!for!defining!low!flow!for!the!purpose!of!setting!permit!discharge!limits.!!

Flooding* Most!scenarios!project!an!increase!in!peak!flows.!

•! Projected!change!in!streamflow!associated!with!the!100Ryear!(1%!annual!probability)!flood!event!for!the!Skagit!River!and!the!Green!River,!on!average!for!the!2080s!(2070R2099m!relative!to!1970R1999):!

o! Skagit!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+42%!(+4!to!86%)!o! Green!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+32%!(+15!to!73%)!

•! Increase!in!the!area!flooded!due!to!the!combined!effects!of!high!river!flows!and!sea!level!rise,!for!the!2080s!(2070R2099,!relative!to!1970R1999):65!

o! Skagit!R!(100Ryr!event,!average!change):!+74%!

Minimum*Flows******************

Runoff*!

Streamflow!is!projected!to!decline!for!summer!minimum!flows.!!!

•! Projected!changed!in!summer!minimum!streamflow!(7Q10)66!for!the!Skagit!River!and!the!Green!River,!on!average!for!the!2080s!(2070R2099,!relative!to!1970R1999).!Average!and!range!for!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario:64!

o! Skagit!R:!!!!!!!R51%!(R65!to!R38%)!o! Green!R:!!!!!!!R16%!(R21!to!R7%)!

!•! Rain!dominant!and!mixed!rain!and!snow!basins!show!the!greatest!and!most!

consistent!decreases!in!minimum!flows,!while!changes!for!snow!dominant!basins!are!smaller.!!

!•! The!above!projections!do!not!account!for!contributions!from!melting!glaciers.!

Projections!indicate!that!glaciers!may!augment!minimum!flows!in!the!near!term!due!to!the!increased!rate!of!melt,!but!nearly!all!scenarios!show!a!sharp!decline!in!meltwater!in!the!late!21st!century!as!glaciers!diminish!in!size.!!

!Projected!change!in!summer!and!winter!runoff!for!the!2050s!(2040R2069)!and!2080s*(2070R2099),!relative!to!1970R1999,!for!northwest!Washington:!!2050s*Winter*(OctJMarch)!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+26.7!cm!(range:!+18.1!to!+38.45!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+34.5!cm!(range:!+20.5!to!+57.4!cm)!!Summer*(AprilJSept)!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−15.2!cm!(range:!−19.1!to!−6.9!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−17.7cm!(range:!−24.5!to!−7.6!cm)!!

2080s*Winter*(OctJMarch)!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+41.2!cm!(range:!+21.8!to!+56.3!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+62.0!cm!(range:!+44.4!to!+77.4!cm)!!Summer*(AprilJSept)!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−19.0!cm!(range:!−24.2!to!−8.4!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−28.4!cm!(range:!−39.5!to!−19.6!cm)!

!


!Oceans! !**********************Sea*Level*–*****************************

Projected*Rising!for!all!scenarios!(2100,!relative!to!2000)!!!!!!!!!!!Seattle,!WA:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+24!inches!(+4!to!+56!inches)!!

Ocean*Acidification*–*Projected*

Global!Increase!by!2100!for!all!scenarios!(relative!to!1986R2005).!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!! +38!to!+41%!

!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!!!!!!!!!!+100!to!+109%*

!For!more!information!on!climate!change!impacts!in!Northwest!Washington,!see!State*of*Knowledge:*Climate*Change*in*Puget*Sound!(2015),!available!at!https://cig.uw.edu/resources/specialRreports/psRsok/.!

!


Green!River!Watershed!CMIP5!projections!

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Figures(D*7b.!As!described!on!Page!DH2,!for!the!Green!River!watershed,!based!on!the!CMIP5Hbased!hydrologic!projections.

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Skagit!River!Watershed!CMIP5!projections!

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Figures(D*3b.!As!described!on!Page!DH2,!for!the!Skagit!River!watershed,!based!on!the!CMIP5Hbased!hydrologic!projections.

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Appendix!B:!Southwest!Region!Climate!Summary!! ! Page!121!!

Appendix(B:(Southwest(Region(Climate(Summary(((Prepared(by(((Harriet(Morgan,(Lara(Whitely(Binder,(and(Dan(Siemann(University(of(Washington(Climate(Impacts(Group(!!!

((( (

!


Climate67!(Temperature.*The!Southwest!region!of!Washington!State!is!projected!to!warm!rapidly!throughout!the!21st!century,!as!a!result!of!greenhouse!gases!associated!with!human!activities.!This!warming!is!projected!to!occur!across!all!seasons,!with!the!most!warming!occurring!during!summer.!Average!annual!temperature!in!the!Southwest!region!of!Washington!is!likely!to!increase!+5.0!to!+8.3°F!by!the!2080s68,!with!extreme!heat!events!becoming!more!frequent!and!extreme!cold!events!less!frequent.!!!Precipitation.*Changes!in!annual!and!seasonal!precipitation!will!continue!to!be!primarily!driven!by!yearQtoQyear!variations!rather!than!longQterm!trends,!but!heavy!rainfall!events!are!projected!to!become!more!frequent!and!severe!throughout!the!21st!century.!!

(

Water(Resources(Southwest!Washington!is!projected!to!experience!a!declining!snowpack,!a!shifting!balance!between!snow!and!rain,!changes!in!streamflow!timing,!increasing!flood!risk,!and!lower!summer!minimum!flows!as!a!result!of!warming!temperatures.!The!largest!changes!are!projected!for!midQelevation!basins!with!significant!snow!accumulation!(today’s!soQcalled!“mixed!rain!and!snow”!watersheds;!Figure!1).!!Snowpack.*As!air!temperatures!warm,!snowpack!is!projected!to!decline!in!winter!and!melt!more!rapidly!during!spring!and!summer.!Average!spring!snowpack!(April!1!SWE)!in!Southwest!Washington!is!projected!to!decline!between!–75%!and!–88%!by!the!2080s!(2070Q2099,!relative!to!1970Q1999),!on!average,!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!and!a!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!!!Warming!air!temperatures!will!drive!the!freezing!level!to!higher!elevations,!which!will!result!in!a!greater!proportion!of!winter!precipitation!falling!as!rain!rather!than!snow!(Figure!1).!This!increase!in!winter!rainfall!will!increase!winter!flood!risk!in!midQelevation,!transient!basins.!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!67!!!!!Information!in!this!summary!sheet!is!from: Mauger,!G.S.,!J.H.!Casola,!H.A.!Morgan,!R.L.!Strauch,!B.!Jones,!B.!Curry,!T.M.!Busch!Isaksen,!L.!Whitely!Binder,!M.B.!Krosby,!and!A.K.!Snover,!2015.!State!of!Knowledge:!Climate!Change!in!Puget!Sound.!Report!prepared!for!the!Puget!Sound!Partnership!and!the!National!Oceanic!and!Atmospheric!Administration.!Climate!Impacts!Group,!University!of!Washington,!Seattle.!doi:10.7915/CIG93777D!

68!!!!!Under!RCP!4.5!and!RCP!8.5,!respectively.!!

!


!Figure(1.((Changing(hydrology(with(warming.(Maps!above!indicate!current!and!future!watershed!classifications,!based!on!the!proportion!of!winter!precipitation!stored!in!peak!annual!snowpack.!Graphs!below!indicate!current!and!future!average!monthly!streamflow!for!these!watershed!types.!Both!compare!average!historical!conditions!(1916Q2006)!and!projected!future!conditions!for!two!time!periods,!the!2040s!(2030Q2059)!and!the!2080s!(2070Q2099),!under!a!medium!greenhouse!gas!scenario!(A1B).!Green!shading!in!the!maps!indicates!warm!(“rainQdominant”)!watersheds,!which!receive!little!winter!precipitation!in!the!form!of!snow.!In!these!basins,!streamflow!peaks!during!winter!months!and!warming!is!projected!to!have!little!effect!(below,!left).!Blue!indicates!cold!(“snowQdominant”)!watersheds,!that!is,!cold!basins!that!receive!more!than!40%!of!their!winter!precipitation!as!snow.!Depending!on!elevation,!these!basins!are!likely!to!experience!increasing!winter!precipitation!as!rain!and!increased!winter!flows!(below,!right).!The!most!sensitive!basins!to!warming!are!the!watersheds!that!are!near!the!current!snowline!(“mixed!rain!and!snow”),!shown!in!red.!These!are!middle!elevation!basins!that!receive!a!mixture!of!rain!and!snow!in!the!winter,!and!are!projected!to!experience!significant!increases!in!winter!flows!and!decreases!in!spring!flows!as!a!result!of!warming!(below,!center).!Source:!Hamlet!et!al.,!2013.!

!

6.2!(

!


Forests(Forests!in!Southwest!Washington!are!projected!to!experience!a!continued!shift!in!the!geographic!distribution!of!species,!changes!in!forest!growth!and!productivity,!increasing!fire!activity,!and!changing!risks!from!insects,!diseases,!and!invasive!species.!These!changes!have!significant!implications!for!ecosystem!composition!and!species!interactions.!Changes!are!projected!to!be!most!pronounced!at!higher!elevations,!where!increasing!air!temperatures!and!decreasing!snowpack!can!reduce!habitat!quality!for!some!species!but!benefit!others!via!a!longer!snowQfree!season!and!increased!biological!productivity.!Many!of!the!changes!expected!for!Southwest!forests!are!likely!to!be!driven!by!increases!in!the!frequency!and!intensity!of!disturbances!such!as!fire,!insect!outbreaks,!and!disease.!(

Climate!change!is!expected!to!increase!fire!activity!in!Southwest!Washington,!even!though!the!area!is!not!thought!to!have!been!fire!prone!historically.!Warming!air!temperatures!and!drier!conditions!are!the!primary!mechanism!leading!to!projected!increases!in!area!burned!for!Washington!State.!!(

Sea(Level(Rise((Sea!level!is!projected!to!continue!rising!through!the!21st!century.!By!2100,!sea!level!rise!along!Washington’s!central!and!southern!coast!and!in!Puget!Sound!is!projected!to!increase!by!+4!to!+56!inches!by!2100,!relative!to!2000.!!!Vertical!land!movement!is!a!process!which!plays!an!important!role!in!determining!local!and!regional!sea!level!rise.!Washington!State!is!a!tectonically!active!area!which!causes!the!land!surface!to!rise!and!fall!over!time.!For!example,!the!land!surface!of!Neah!Bay!along!the!northwest!Olympic!Peninsula!is!currently!experiencing!uplift.!Conversely,!Seattle!and!surrounding!areas!are!subsiding,!which!exacerbates!the!local!effects!of!sea!level!as!the!land!surface!is!sinking.!!!

Projected!Changes(in(the(Climate(of(Southwest(Washington(!!

Temperature) )Annual*Temperature*–*

Projected*

Projected!increase!in!average!annual!temperature!for!the!2050s!(2040Q2069),!relative!to!1970Q1999,!for!southwest!Washington:!!


Projected!increase!in!average!annual!temperature!for!the!2080s!(2070Q2099),!relative!to!1970Q1999,!for!southwest!Washington:!


Temperature*–*

Seasonal**

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

Projected!increase!in!seasonal!temperatures!for!the!2050s!(2040Q2069),!relative!to!1970Q1999,!for!southwest!Washington:!!Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+3.6°F!(range:!+2.9!to!+5.1°F)!




!


*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

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*

*

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*

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*

Number*of*Days*Above*

Warm*Thresholds***


Fall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+3.8°F!(range:!+2.4!to!+5.1°F)!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+5.2°F!(range:!+3.6!to!+6.9°F)!!

Projected!increase!in!seasonal!temperatures!for!the!2080s!(2060Q2099),!relative!to!1970Q1999,!for!southwest!Washington:!!Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.7°F!(range:!+3.8!to!+6.5°F)!



Summer!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!+5.8°F!(range:!+4.1!to!+8.1°F)!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+9.9°F!(range:!+7.9!to!+13.7°F)!!


Projected!increase!in!the!number!of!days!above!various!thresholds!(80°F,!90°F,!100°F)!for!the!historical!period!(1970Q1999),!2050s,!and!the!2080s.!(2050s((!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!80°F:!((((((Historical!(1970Q1999):!17!days(! RCP!4.5:!+17!days!(range:!+12!to!+25!days)!(! RCP!8.5:!+24!days!(range:!+18!to!+34!days)(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!90°F:!!!!!!!!Historical!(1970Q1999):!2!days!RCP!4.5:!+5!days!(range:!+3!to!+7!days)!(RCP!8.5:!+8!days!(range:!+5!to!+13!days)(

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!100°F:!!!!!!Historical!(1970Q1999):!0!days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

RCP!4.5:!+1!day!(range:!+0!to!+1!days)!(RCP!8.5:!+1!day!(range:!+1!to!+2!days)(

2080s((!!!!!!!!!!!!!!80°F:!((((((((Historical!(1970Q1999):!17!days!(((

RCP!4.5:!+22!days!(range:!+16!to!+32!days)!(RCP!8.5:!+44!days!(range:!+33!to!+64!days)(

!90°F:!!! Historical!(1970Q1999):!2!day!

RCP!4.5:!+7!days!(range:!+4!to!+11!days)!(RCP!8.5:!+17!days!(range:!+10!to!+29!days)(!

100°F:!!!!!!!Historical!(1970Q1999):!0!days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!RCP!4.5:!+1!days!(range:!+0!to!+2!days)!(RCP!8.5:!+3!days!(range:!+1!to!+6!days)(

!!

Precipitation) )Annual*Precipitation*–*

Projected*

Projected!increase!in!average!annual!precipitation!for!the!2050s!(2040Q2069),!relative!to!1970Q1999,!for!southwest!Washington:!!

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+3.9%!(range:!+0.6!to!+11.3%)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+4.8%!(range:!−3.0!to!+11.8%)!

!


!Projected!increase!in!average!annual!precipitation!for!the!2080s!(2070Q2099),!relative!to!1970Q1999,!for!southwest!Washington:!

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.9%!(range:!−1.2!to!+9.2%)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+6.4%!(range:!−0.1!to!+10.4%)!

!Seasonal*Precipitation*

–*Projected*

Projected!changes!in!seasonal!precipitation!for!the!2050s!(2040Q2069),!relative!to!1970Q1999,!for!southwest!Washington:!!Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+9.7%!(range:!−0.5!to!+19.3%)!

!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+10.7%!(range:!+1.9!to!+16.6%)!!



Fall!!!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.1%!(range:!−6.8!to!+12.9%)!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+5.0%!(range:!−4.0!to!+17.9%)!

!!!!Projected!changes!in!seasonal!precipitation!for!the!2080s!(2060Q2099),!relative!to!1970Q1999,!for!southwest!Washington:!!Winter!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+10.6%!(range:!+1.3!to!+15.7%)!


Spring!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−1.1%!(range:!−7.2!to!+5.4%)!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−0.1%!(range:!−13.5!to!+8.2%)!

*

Summer!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−18.2%!(range:!−40.9!to!−6.9%)!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−21.8%!(range:!−53.5!to!+9.8%)!!

Fall!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+10.6%!(range:!−0.2!to!+20.3%)!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+7.7%!(range:!−1.0!to!+14.3%)!

Heavy*Precipitation*–*

Projected*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

Projected!increase!in!western(Oregon(and(Washington!precipitation!extremes!for!the!2080s!(2070Q2099,!relative!to!1970Q1999)!for!a!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario:!!

Annual!99th!percentile!of!24Qhour!precipitation:!

+22%!(range:!+5!to!+34%)!

Frequency!of!exceeding!the!historical!99th!percentile!of!24Qhour!precipitation:!!Historical!(1970Q1999):!!!2!days!/!year!!Future!(2070Q2099):!!!!!!!!7!days!/!year!(range:!4!to!9!days!/!year)!

!


!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!69!!These!numbers!show!projected!changes!in!April!1!Snow!Water!Equivalent!(SWE).!SWE!is!a!measure!of!the!total!amount!of!water!contained!in!the!snowpack.!April!1!is!the!approximate!current!timing!of!peak!annual!snowpack!in!the!mountains!of!the!Northwest.!!

70!!Snow!season!length!is!defined!as!the!number!of!days!between!the!date!of!10%!accumulation!and!90%!melt,!relative!to!annual!maximum!snow!water!equivalent.!!

71!!!!!Projected!change!for!ten!global!climate!models!for!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!

Snow)April*1

st*Snowpack*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

((((((Snow*Season*Length(*

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*

*

*

*

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*

*

*

Projected!decrease!in!southwest!Washington!average!April!1!snowpack69!for!the!2050s!(2040Q2069)!and!the!2080s!(2070Q2099),!relative!to!1970Q1999:!2050s(

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −63.3%!(range:!−71.8!to!−45.0%)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −69.4%!(range:!−85.5!to!−51.4%)!!

2080s(Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −74.7%!(range:!−87.5!to!−64.4%)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −87.6%!(range:!−96.5!to!−75.2%)!!

Increasing!air!temperatures!are!projected!to!result!in!a!shortening!of!the!length!of!the!snow!season.70!Projected!decline!in!snow!season!length!for!the!2050s!(2040Q2069)!and!2080s((2070Q2099),!relative!to!1970Q1999,!for!southwest!Washington:!(2050s(

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −40!days!(range:!−52!to!−28!days)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −49!days!(range:!−68!to!−28!days)!

(2080s(

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −53!days!(range:!−71!to!−39!days)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −77!days!(range:!−93!to!−55!days)!

Streamflow) Projected)Long7term)Change)Streamflow*timing) Peak!streamflows!are!projected!to!occur!earlier!in!many!snowmeltQinfluenced!rivers!in!

the!Southwest.!!

2080s(•! Change!in!the!timing!of!peak!streamflow!for!the!Dungeness!River!and!the!

Elwha!River!for!the(2080s!(2070Q2099,!relative!to!1970Q1999).!Average!and!range!for!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario71:!!

o! Dungeness!R:!!!!!!!Q15!days!(Q35!to!Q6!days)!o! Elwha!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Q28!days!(Q41!to!Q20!days)!

Stream*temperatures* Water!temperatures!are!projected!to!increase.!!

•! Southwest!Washington!rivers!are!projected!to!increasingly!experience!average!August!stream!temperatures!stressful!to!salmon!(in!excess!of!64°F)!and!char!(in!excess!of!54°F).!!

•! Increase!in!the!number!of!river!miles!in!excess!of!thermal!tolerances,!on!average!for!the!2080s!(2070Q2099,!relative!to!1970Q1999)!and!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario,!for!the!Dungeness!River!and!the!Elwha!River:!

o! Dungeness!R:!!+32!mi.!(>54!°F),!!!!!!!!+0!mi.!(>64!°F)!o! Elwha!R:!!!!!!!!!!+64!mi.!(>54!°F),!!!!!!!!!+0!mi.!(>64!°F)!

!


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!72!!!!At!Bonneville!!

74!!!!The!7Q10!flow!is!the!lowest!7Qday!average!flow!that!occurs!on!average!once!every!10!years.!7Q10!flows!are!a!common!standard!for!defining!low!flow!for!the!purpose!of!setting!permit!discharge!limits.!!


2040s(•! Projected!change!in!streamflow!associated!with!the!100Qyear!(1%!annual!

probability)!flood!event!for!the!Satsop!River,!Columbia!River!(at!Bonneville),!Chehalis!River,!Dungeness!River,!and!Elwha!River!on!average!for!the!2040s!(2030Q2059,!relative!to!1970Q1999):!

o! Satsop!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+14%!(+1!to!27%)!o! Chehalis!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!+10%!(Q13!to!35%)!o! Columbia!R72:!!!!!!!!!Q6%!(Q22!to!5%)!o! Dungeness!R:!!!!!!!!+60%!(+29!to!112%)!o! Elwha!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+24%!(+14!to!52%)!

2080s(•! Projected!change!in!streamflow!associated!with!the!100Qyear!(1%!annual!

probability)!flood!event!for!the!Satsop!River,!Columbia!River!(at!Bonneville),!Chehalis!River,!Dungeness!River,!and!Elwha!River,!on!average!for!the!2080s!(2070Q2099,!relative!to!1970Q1999):!

o! Satsop!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+26%!(+1!to!55%)!o! Chehalis!R:!!!!!!!!!!!+22%!(+3!to!52%)!o! Columbia!R:72!!!!!!!!!+1%!(Q17!to!+38%)!o! Dungeness!R:!!!!!!!+55!(+20!to!116%)!o! Elwha!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+29!(+5!to!50%)!

!

Minimum*Flows*

*

*

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*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

Summer!minimum!flows!are!projected!to!decrease.!!!2040s(

•! Projected!changed!in!summer!minimum!streamflow!(7Q10)74!!for!the!Satsop!River,!Columbia!River!(at!Bonneville),!Chehalis!River,!Dungeness!River,!and!Elwha!River,!on!average!for!the!2040s!(2030Q2059,!relative!to!1970Q1999).!Average!and!range!for!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario:64!

o! Satsop!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!Q13%!(Q22!to!Q1%)!o! Chehalis!R:!!!!!!!!!Q3%!(Q7!to!+2%)!o! Columbia!R:72!!!!!!Q5%!(Q15!to!+5%)!o! Dungeness!R:!!!!!Q21%!(Q31!to!Q12%)!o! Elwha!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Q27%!(Q40!to!Q16%)!

2080s(•! Projected!changed!in!summer!minimum!streamflow!(7Q10;!see!footnote!7)!for!

the!Satsop!River,!Columbia!River!(at!Bonneville),!Chehalis!River,!Dungeness!River,!and!Elwha!River,!on!average!for!the!2080s!(2070Q2099,!relative!to!1970Q1999).!Average!and!range!for!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario:64!

o! Satsop!R:!!!!!!!!!!!Q18%!(Q24!to!Q10%)!o! Chehalis!R:!!!!!!!!Q5%!(Q9!to!Q1%)!o! Columbia!R:72!!!!!Q9%!(Q18!to!+6%)!o! Dungeness!R:!!!!Q35%!(Q45!to!Q27%)!o! Elwha!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Q39%!(Q49!to!Q27%)!!

•! Rain!dominant!and!mixed!rain!and!snow!basins!show!the!greatest!and!most!

!


!Oceans) )**********************Sea*Level*–*****************************

Projected*

Rising!for!all!scenarios!(2050!and!2100,!relative!to!2000)!

Seattle,!WA:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

•! 2050:((((((+6!inches!(Q1!to!+19!inches)!•! 2100:((((((+24!inches!(+4!to!+56!inches)!!

Ocean*Acidification*–*

Projected*

Global!Increase!by!2100!for!all!scenarios!(relative!to!1986Q2005).!!

!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!! +38!to!+41%!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!!!!!!!!!!+100!to!+109%*

!!For!more!information!on!climate!change!impacts!in!Southwest!and!Northwest!Washington,!see!State*of*Knowledge:*Climate*Change*in*Puget*Sound!(2015),!available!at!https://cig.uw.edu/resources/specialQreports/psQsok/.!!!!!!! !!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!73!!!!This!includes!any!overland!water!flows!in!addition!to!subsurface!runoff!in!shallow!groundwater.!

*

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Runoff73*

!

consistent!decreases!in!minimum!flows,!while!changes!for!snow!dominant!basins!are!smaller.!!

!•! The!above!projections!do!not!account!for!contributions!from!melting!glaciers.!

Projections!indicate!that!glaciers!may!augment!minimum!flows!in!the!near!term!due!to!the!increased!rate!of!melt,!but!nearly!all!scenarios!show!a!sharp!decline!in!meltwater!in!the!late!21st!century!as!glaciers!diminish!in!size.!!

!Projected!change!in!summer!and!winter!runoff!for!the!2050s!(2040Q2069)!and!2080s((2070Q2099),!relative!to!1970Q1999,!for!southwest!Washington:!!2050s(Winter*(OctOMarch)!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+18.4!cm!(range:!+12.1!to!+30.0!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+22.2!cm!(range:!+10.6!to!+35.5!cm)!!Summer*(AprilOSept)!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−15.1!cm!(range:!−22.2!to!−8.3!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−16.3!cm!(range:!−26.1!to!−7.2!cm)!!

2080s(Winter*(OctOMarch)!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+27.0!cm!(range:!+8.4!to!+37.7!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+34.2!cm!(range:!+25.3!to!+43.1!cm)!!Summer*(AprilOSept)!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−18.8!cm!(range:!−25.7!to!−8.8!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−28.4!cm!(range:!−37.7!to!−15.5!cm)!

!


Satsop!River!Watershed!CMIP3!projections!

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Chehalis!River!Watershed!CMIP3!projections!

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Columbia!(Bonneville)!River!Watershed!!CMIP3!Projections!

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Dungeness!River!Watershed!CMIP5!projections!

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Elwha!River!Watershed!CMIP5!projections!

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2080s

Low Flows


2080s


Low Flows

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10 50 100

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−−−−−−−−−−

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10 50 100

2080s


Peak Flows



020

0040

0060

00

Flow

(cfs

)20

50s

Monthly Streamflow



020

0040

0060

00

Month

2080

sFl

ow (c

fs)

!

Appendix!B:!Eastern!Region!Climate!Summary!! ! Page!135!

!

7! "

Appendix"B:"Eastern"Region"Climate"Summary"""Prepared"by"""Harriet"Morgan,"Lara"Whitely"Binder,"and"Dan"Siemann"University"of"Washington"Climate"Impacts"Group"!

!

!

""" "

!


!

Climate((Temperature.*The!eastern!region!of!Washington!State!is!projected!to!warm!rapidly!throughout!the!21

st!

century,!as!a!result!of!greenhouse!gases!associated!with!human!activities.!This!warming!is!projected!to!

occur!across!all!seasons,!with!the!most!warming!occurring!during!summer.!Average!annual!temperature!

in!the!Eastern!region!of!Washington!is!likely!to!increase!+5.9!to!+9.8°F!by!the!2080s75,!with!extreme!heat!

events!becoming!more!frequent!and!extreme!cold!events!less!frequent.!!

Precipitation.*Changes!in!annual!and!seasonal!precipitation!will!continue!to!be!primarily!driven!by!yearS

toSyear!variations!rather!than!longSterm!trends,!but!heavy!rainfall!events!are!projected!to!become!more!

frequent!and!severe!throughout!the!21st!century.!!

(Water(Resources(Eastern!Washington!is!projected!to!experience!a!declining!snowpack,!a!shifting!balance!between!snow!

and!rain,!changes!in!streamflow!timing,!increasing!flood!risk,!and!lower!summer!minimum!flows!as!a!

result!of!warming!air!temperatures.!The!largest!changes!are!projected!for!midSelevation!basins!with!

significant!snow!accumulation!(today’s!soScalled!“mixed!rain!and!snow”!watersheds;!Figure!1).(

Snowpack.*As!air!temperatures!warm,!snowpack!is!projected!to!decline!in!winter!and!melt!more!rapidly!

during!spring!and!summer.!Average!spring!snowpack!(April!1!SWE)!in!eastern!Washington!is!projected!to!

decline!between!–58%!and!–73%!by!the!2080s!(2070S2099,!relative!to!1970S1999),!on!average,!for!a!low!

(RCP!4.5)!and!a!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!!

Flooding.*Warming!air!temperatures!will!drive!the!freezing!level!to!higher!elevations,!which!will!result!in!

a!greater!proportion!of!winter!precipitation!falling!as!rain!rather!than!snow!(Figure!1).!This!increase!in!

winter!rainfall!will!increase!winter!flood!risk!in!midSelevation,!transient!basins.!

(Forests(Overview!|!Forests!in!eastern!Washington!are!projected!to!experience!a!continued!shift!in!the!

geographic!distribution!of!species,!changes!in!forest!growth!and!productivity,!increasing!fire!activity,!and!

changing!risks!from!insects,!diseases,!and!invasive!species.!These!changes!have!significant!implications!

for!ecosystem!composition!and!species!interactions.!Changes!are!projected!to!be!most!pronounced!at!

higher!elevations,!where!increasing!air!temperatures!and!decreasing!snowpack!can!reduce!habitat!

quality!for!some!species!but!benefit!others!via!a!longer!snowSfree!season!and!increased!biological!

productivity.!Many!of!the!changes!expected!for!eastern!forests!are!likely!to!be!driven!by!increases!in!the!

frequency!and!intensity!of!disturbances!such!as!fire,!insect!outbreaks,!and!disease.!(!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!75!!!!!Under!RCP!4.5!and!RCP!8.5,!respectively.!!

!


!

!(

Figure(1.(Changing(hydrology(with(warming.(Maps!above!indicate!current!and!future!watershed!classifications,!

based!on!the!proportion!of!winter!precipitation!stored!in!peak!annual!snowpack.!Graphs!below!indicate!current!

and!future!average!monthly!streamflow!for!these!watershed!types.!Both!compare!average!historical!conditions!

(1916S2006)!and!projected!future!conditions!for!two!time!periods,!the!2040s!(2030S2059)!and!the!2080s!(2070S

2099),!under!a!medium!greenhouse!gas!scenario!(A1B).!Green!shading!in!the!maps!indicates!warm!(“rainS

dominant”)!watersheds,!which!receive!little!winter!precipitation!in!the!form!of!snow.!In!these!basins,!streamflow!

peaks!during!winter!months!and!warming!is!projected!to!have!little!effect!(below,!left).!Blue!indicates!cold!(“snowS

dominant”)!watersheds,!that!is,!cold!basins!that!receive!more!than!40%!of!their!winter!precipitation!as!snow.!

Depending!on!elevation,!these!basins!are!likely!to!experience!increasing!winter!precipitation!as!rain!and!increased!

winter!flows!(below,!right).!The!most!sensitive!basins!to!warming!are!the!watersheds!that!are!near!the!current!

snowline!(“mixed!rain!and!snow”),!shown!in!red.!These!are!middle!elevation!basins!that!receive!a!mixture!of!rain!

and!snow!in!the!winter,!and!are!projected!to!experience!significant!increases!in!winter!flows!and!decreases!in!

spring!flows!as!a!result!of!warming!(below,!center).!Source:!Hamlet!et!al.,!2013.!

!

!


!

!

Water;Limited(Forests(&(Species(Biogeography(|(Warming!temperatures!and!declining!summer!

precipitation!are!likely!to!increase!the!extent!of!waterSlimited!forests!in!eastern!Washington,!with!

episodes!of!drought!increasing!in!both!frequency!and!duration.!By!the!2080s,!forests!within!the!

Okanogan!Highlands!and!the!foothills!of!the!northeastern!Cascade!Mountains!are!projected!to!transition!

to!severely!waterSlimited!forest.!These!climatic!changes!(increasing!temperatures!and!declining!growing!

season!water!availability)!are!also!projected!to!shift!the!spatial!distribution!of!suitable!climate!for!many!

ecologically!and!economically!important!tree!species!in!Washington!state.!For!example,!by!the!2060s!

models!project!that!DouglasSfir!at!the!margins!of!its!current!distribution!in!the!state.!Within!eastern!

Washington,!areas!of!climatic!suitability!for!DouglasSfir!are!projected!to!decline!most!noticeably!at!lower!

elevations,!especially!in!the!Okanagan!Highlands.!These!increases!in!temperature!and!decreases!in!

growing!season!water!availability!are!also!projected!to!increasingly!stress!pine!forests!in!Washington!

state!by!the!2060s.!The!stress!on!pine!species!is!expected!to!be!most!pronounced!in!the!Columbia!Basin!

and!the!eastern!Cascades,!particularly!in!northeastern!Washington.!!!!!

!

Wildfire(|(Climate!change!is!expected!to!increase!the!annual!area!burned!by!fire!in!eastern!Washington.!

Warming!temperatures!and!increasing!summer!water!deficit!are!the!primary!mechanism!leading!to!

projected!increases!in!area!burned!for!the!region.!By!the!2040s,!the!area!burned!in!non7forest*ecosystems!in!eastern!Washington,!specifically!the!Columbia!Basin!and!Palouse!Prairie,!are!expected!to!

increase!on!average!by!a!factor!of!2.2!(relative!to!1980S2006).!Projected!change!in!area!burned!in!

forested*ecosystems!are!not!available!exclusively!for!eastern!Washington,!however,!the!mean!area!

burned!within!a!region!including!western!Washington,!eastern!Washington,!the!Okanogan!highlands,!

and!the!Palouse!Prairie,!is!projected!to!increase!by!a!factor!of!3.8!(relative!to!1980S2006).!!!

!

Mountain(Pine(Beetle(|(The!area!of!forest!susceptible!to!mountain!pine!beetle!outbreaks!is!projected!to!

first!increase!then!decrease.!In!Washington!state!under!a!medium!greenhouse!gas!scenario,!the!area!

susceptible!to!mountain!pine!beetle!outbreak!is!projected!to!first!increase!(+27%!higher!in!2001S2030!

compared!to!1961S1990)!as!warming!exposes!higher!elevation!forests!to!the!pine!beetle,!but!then!

decrease!(−49!to!−58%!lower!by!2071S2100)!as!temperatures!exceed!the!beetle’s!thermal!optimum.!

Further!research!is!needed!into!how!other!insects!may!respond!to!climate!change.!Anticipating!future!

impacts!will!require!better!understanding!the!role!of!climate!in!other!insects’!(e.g.,!spruce!and!fir!

beetles!or!defoliators)!life!cycles!and!host!vulnerabilities.

8! "!

!

" "

!


!

Projected!Changes"in"the"Climate"of"Eastern"Washington"!!


Projected*Projected!increase!in!average!annual!temperature!for!the!2050s!(2040S2069),!relative!to!1970S1999,!for!eastern!Washington:!!

!

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.6°F!(range:!+3.1!to!+5.9°F)!

High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+6.0°F!(range:!+4.7!to!+7.6°F)!

!

Projected!increase!in!average!annual!temperature!for!the!2080s!(2070S2099),!relative!to!1970S1999,!for!eastern!Washington:!

!

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.9°F!(range:!+4.4!to!+7.5°F)!

High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+9.8°F!(range:!+7.9!to!+12.2°F)!

!


****************************

Number*of*Days*Above*Warm*Thresholds**

Projected!increase!in!seasonal!temperatures!for!the!2050s!(2040S2069),!relative!to!1970S1999,!for!eastern!Washington:!

!

Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.5°F!(range:!+3.1!to!+5.6°F)!

!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+5.5°F!(range:!+3.7!to!+7.2°F)!

!

Spring!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.0°F!(range:!+2.5!to!+4.9°F)!


!



!

Fall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.3°F!(range:!+2.6!to!+5.6°F)!


!

Projected!increase!in!seasonal!temperatures!for!the!2080s!(2060S2099),!relative!to!1970S1999,!for!eastern!Washington:!

!

Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.5°F!(range:!+3.1!to!+5.6°F)!


!

Spring!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.4°F!(range:!+3.8!to!+7.1°F)!

!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+8.0°F!(range:!+5.1!to!+10.1°F)!

!

Summer!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!+7.0°F!(range:!+4.8!to!+10.1°F)!


!



!

Projected!increase!in!the!number!of!days!above!various!thresholds!(80°F,!90°F,!100°F)!

for!the!historical!period!(1970S1999),!2050s,!and!the!2080s.!

(2050s((!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!80°F:!((((((Historical!(1970S1999):!55!days(! RCP!4.5:!+29!days!(range:!+20!to!+38!days)!(! RCP!8.5:!+37!days!(range:!+26!to!+46!days)(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!


!

!90°F:!!!!!!!!Historical!(1970S1999):!16!days!


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

100°F:!!!!!!Historical!(1970S1999):!1!day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


2080s((!!!!!!!!!!!!!!80°F:!((((((((Historical!(1970S1999):!55!days!(((


!

90°F:!!! Historical!(1970S1999):!16!days!

RCP!4.5:!+28!days!(range:!+20!to!+38!days)!(RCP!8.5:!+51!days!(range:!+36!to!+66!days)(!

100°F:!!!!!!!Historical!(1970S1999):!1!day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


!

Precipitation) )Annual*Precipitation*–*

Projected*Projected!increase!in!average!annual!precipitation!for!the!2050s!(2040S2069),!relative!to!1970S1999,!for!eastern!Washington:!!

2050s(Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):

!!+4.4%!(range:!+0.6!to!+8.8%)!

High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+5.8%!(range:!−3.0!to!+12.5%)!

!

Projected!increase!in!average!annual!precipitation!for!the!2080s!(2070S2099),!relative!to!1970S1999,!for!eastern!Washington:!

!


!!+6.7%!(range:!+1.1!to!+11.1%)!

High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+8.4%!(range:!+4.1!to!+11.0%)!

!

Seasonal*Precipitation*–*Projected*

Projected!changes!in!seasonal!precipitation!for!the!2050s!(2040S2069),!relative!to!1970S1999,!for!eastern!Washington:!

!

2050s(Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):

!!+11.0%!(range:!+2.3!to!+21.8%)!

!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+12.6%!(range:!+6.0!to!+20.6%)!

!

Spring!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.1%!(range:!−3.8!to!+16.0%)!

!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+6.9%!(range:!−0.2!to!+20.5%)!

!

Summer!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−14.3%!(range:!−30.4!to!+2.9%)!

!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−16.0%!(range:!−39.3!to!+4.6%)!

!

Fall!!!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.1%!(range:!−1.8!to!+11.0%)!

!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+6.8%!(range:!−3.1!to!+19.0%)!

!

!

!

!

!


!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!76!!These!numbers!show!projected!changes!in!April!1!Snow!Water!Equivalent!(SWE).!SWE!is!a!measure!of!the!total!amount!of!

water!contained!in!the!snowpack.!April!1!is!the!approximate!current!timing!of!peak!annual!snowpack!in!the!mountains!of!the!

Northwest.!!

77!!Snow!season!length!is!defined!as!the!number!of!days!between!the!date!of!10%!accumulation!and!90%!melt,!relative!to!

annual!maximum!snow!water!equivalent.!!

Projected!changes!in!seasonal!precipitation!for!the!2080s!(2060S2099),!relative!to!1970S1999,!for!eastern!Washington:!

!

2080s(Winter!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):

!!+11.7%!(range:!+2.8!to!+19.1%)!

!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+18.0%!(range:!+7.6!to!+27.3%)!

!

Spring!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.6%!(range:!−2.5!to!+14.6%)!

!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+7.2%!(range:!−0.2!to!+15.5%)!

*Summer!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):

!!−9.3%!(range:!−22.4!to!+10.9%)!

!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−19.1%!(range:!−45.9!to!+7.3%)!

!

Fall!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+10.1%!(range:!+1!to!+22.8%)!

!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+10.5%!(range:!+3.9!to!+22.4%)!

Snow)April*1st*Snowpack*

*******

**

(((((((Snow*Season*Length(

********

**

*

!

Projected!decrease!in!eastern!Washington!average!April!1!snowpack76!for!the!2050s!

(2040S2069)!and!the!2080s!(2070S2099),!relative!to!1970S1999:!2050s(

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −45.6%!(range:!−56.8!to!−28.7%)!

High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −53.1%!(range:!−69.3!to!−38.9%)!

!


!!! −57.8%!(range:!−69.2!to!−47.6%)!

High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −73.1%!(range:!−85.8!to!−58.2%)!

!

Increasing!air!temperatures!are!projected!to!result!in!a!shortening!of!the!length!of!the!

snow!season.77!Projected!decline!in!snow!season!length!for!the!2050s!(2040S2069)!and!

2080s((2070S2099),!relative!to!1970S1999,!for!eastern!Washington:!

(2050s(

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −16!days!(range:!−22!to!−10!days)!

High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −22!days!(range:!−31!to!−16!days)!

(2080s(

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −23!days!(range:!−31!to!−14!days)!

!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −38!days!(range:!−49!to!−27!days)!

!


!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!

80!The!7Q10!flow!is!the!lowest!7Sday!average!flow!that!occurs!on!average!once!every!10!years.!7Q10!flows!are!a!common!

standard!for!defining!low!flow!for!the!purpose!of!setting!permit!discharge!limits.!

Streamflow) Projected)Long7term)Change)Stream*temperatures) Water!temperatures!are!projected!to!increase.!!

!2080s(

By!the!2080s!(2070S2099,!relative!to!1970S1999),!more!stream!locations!are!

projected!to!experience!weekly!summer!stream!temperatures!stressful!to!

adjust!salmon!(in!excess!of!67°F):!

!

o! Eastern!Washington:!19%!more!sites!


2040s(Projected!change!in!streamflow!associated!with!the!100Syear!(1%!annual!

probability)!flood!event!for!the!Methow!River!(at!Twisp),!Spokane!River!(at!

Spokane),!Yakima!River!(at!Parker),!and!Columbia!River!(at!the!Dalles),!on!

average!for!the!2040s!(2030S2059,!relative!to!1970S1999):!!

o! Methow!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!S1%!(S14.2!to!+23.3%)!

o! Spokane!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+34.1%!(S6.9!to!+94.1%)!

o! Yakima!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+28.1%!(+5.6!to!+65.7%)!

o! Columbia!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!–6.7%!(–22.1!to!+5.0%)!

2080s(Projected!change!in!streamflow!associated!with!the!100Syear!(1%!annual!

probability)!flood!event!for!the!Methow!River!(at!Twisp),!Spokane!River!(at!

Spokane),!Yakima!River!(at!Parker),!and!Columbia!River!(at!the!Dalles),!on!

average!for!the!2080s!(2070S2099,!relative!to!1970S1999):!!

o! Methow!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+22.7%!(S11.5!to!+81.4%)!

o! Spokane!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+61.4%!(+32.1!to!+140.8%)!

o! Yakima!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+46.9%!(+3.6!to!+96.7%)!

o! Columbia!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+1%!(–17.7%!to!+37.5%)!

Minimum*Flows****************

Summer!minimum!flows!are!projected!to!decrease.!!

!

2040s(Projected!changed!in!summer!minimum!streamflow!(7Q10)

79!for!the!Methow!

River!(at!Twisp),!Spokane!River!(at!Spokane),!Yakima!River!(at!Parker),!and!

Columbia!River!(at!the!Dalles),!on!average!for!the!2040s!(2030S2059,!relative!to!1970S1999).!Average!and!range!for!a!moderate!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!

scenario80:!!

!

o! Methow!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!–2.4%!(–8.6%!to!+2.0%)!

o! Spokane!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!–1.7%!(–4.2%!to!+3.4%)!

o! Yakima!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!–14.2%!(–18.8%!to!–10.3%)!

o! Columbia!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!–4.3%!(–14.2%!to!+5.2%)!

2080s(Projected!changed!in!summer!minimum!streamflow!(7Q10;!see!footnote!7)!for!

!


!

!

!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!78!!!!This!includes!any!overland!water!flows!in!addition!to!subsurface!runoff!in!shallow!groundwater.!

*******************

Runoff*78*!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

*Irrigation*Water*Supply*

the!Methow!River!(at!Twisp),!Spokane!River!(at!Spokane),!Yakima!River!(at!

Parker),!and!Columbia!River!(at!the!Dalles),!on!average!for!the!2080s!(2070S2099,!relative!to!1970S1999).!Average!and!range!for!a!moderate!(A1B)!

greenhouse!gas!scenario!(see!footnote!7):!!

o! Methow!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!–5.1%!(–10.8!to!+0.3%)!

o! Spokane!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!–2.8%!(–4.9!to!+3.1%)!

o! Yakima!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!–16.8%!(–20.3!to!–13.5%)!

o! Columbia!R:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!–8.1%!(–17.8%!to!+6.5%)!

!

Rain!dominant!and!mixed!rain!and!snow!basins!show!the!greatest!and!most!

consistent!decreases!in!minimum!flows,!while!changes!for!snow!dominant!

basins!are!smaller.!!

!

The!above!projections!do!not!account!for!contributions!from!melting!glaciers.!

Projections!indicate!that!glaciers!may!augment!minimum!flows!in!the!near!

term!due!to!the!increased!rate!of!melt,!but!nearly!all!scenarios!show!a!sharp!

decline!in!meltwater!in!the!late!21st!century!as!glaciers!diminish!in!size.!!

!

!

Projected!change!in!summer!and!winter!runoff!for!the!2050s!(2040S2069)!and!2080s((2070S2099),!relative!to!1970S1999,!for!eastern!Washington:!

!

2050s(Winter*(Oct7March)!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):

!!+24.2!cm!(range:!+19.5!to!+30.2!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+29.7!cm!(range:!+16.4!to!+43.2!cm)!

!

Summer*(April7Sept)!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.3!cm!(range:!−1.3!to!+14.4!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+5.8!cm!(range:!−6.4!to!+18!cm)!

!

2080s(Winter*(Oct7March)!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):

!!+31.6!cm!(range:!+13.1!to!+46.2!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+45.6!cm!(range:!+37.5!to!+56.5!cm)!

!

Summer*(April7Sept)!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5!cm!(range:!−8.8!to!−25.2!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+5.3!cm!(range:!−4.6!to!+14.7!cm)!

!

Increase!in!water!short!years!in!the!Yakima!River!basin,!in!which!water!delivery!is!

curtailed!to!junior!water!rights!growers.!

!

Likelihood!of!shortfalls:!

o! Historical!(1975S2004):!!!!!!14%!

o! 2020s!(2010S2039):!!!!!!!!!!!!24!to!27%!

o! 2040s!(2030S2059):!!!!!!!!!!!!31!to!33%!

o! 2080s!(2070S2099):!!!!!!!!!!!!43!to!68%!

!

Appendix!B:!Eastern!Region!Climate!Summary!! ! Page!144!!

Methow!River!(at!Twisp)!CMIP3!projections!

! !

!


Spokane!River!(at!Spokane)!CMIP3!projections!

!

!


Columbia!River!(at!the!Dalles)!CMIP3!Projections!

!

!

!


Yakima!River!(at!Parker)!CMIP3!projections!

!

!

Appendix!B:!Statewide!Climate!Summary!! ! Page!148!

10!#!

Appendix#B:#Statewide#Climate#Summary###Prepared#by###Harriet#Morgan,#Lara#Whitely#Binder,#and#Dan#Siemann#University#of#Washington#Climate#Impacts#Group#!!!

### #

!


Climate81!#Temperature.*Washington!State!is!projected!to!warm!rapidly!throughout!the!21st!century,!as!a!result!of!greenhouse!gases!associated!with!human!activities.!This!warming!is!projected!to!occur!across!all!seasons,!with!the!most!warming!occurring!during!summer.!Average!annual!temperature!is!likely!to!increase!+5.6!to!+9.4°F!by!the!2080s82,!with!extreme!heat!events!becoming!more!frequent!and!extreme!cold!events!less!frequent.!!!Precipitation.*Changes!in!annual!and!seasonal!precipitation!will!continue!to!be!primarily!driven!by!yearPtoPyear!variations!rather!than!longPterm!trends,!but!heavy!rainfall!events!are!projected!to!become!more!frequent!and!severe!throughout!the!21st!century.!!!

Water!Resources!Washington!State!is!projected!to!experience!a!declining!snowpack,!a!shifting!balance!between!snow!and!rain,!changes!in!streamflow!timing,!increasing!flood!risk,!and!lower!summer!minimum!flows!as!a!result!of!warming!temperatures.!The!largest!changes!are!projected!for!midPelevation!basins!with!significant!snow!accumulation!(today’s!soPcalled!“mixed!rain!and!snow”!watersheds;!Figure!1).!!Snowpack.*As!air!temperatures!warm,!snowpack!is!projected!to!decline!in!winter!and!melt!more!rapidly!during!spring!and!summer.!Average!spring!snowpack!(April!1!SWE)!across!Washington!State!is!projected!to!decline!between!–61%!to!–76%!by!the!2080s!(2070P2099,!relative!to!1970P1999),!on!average,!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!and!a!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!!!Warming!air!temperatures!will!drive!the!freezing!level!to!higher!elevations,!which!will!result!in!a!greater!proportion!of!winter!precipitation!falling!as!rain!rather!than!snow!(Figure!1).!This!increase!in!winter!rainfall!will!increase!winter!flood!risk!in!midPelevation,!transient!basins.!! !

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!81!!!!!Information!in!this!summary!sheet!is!from:!Snover,!A.K,!G.S.!Mauger,!L.C.!Whitely!Binder,!M.!Krosby,!and!I.!Tohver.!2013.!!Climate!Change!Impacts!and!Adaptation!in!Washington!State:!Technical!Summaries!for!Decision!Makers.!State!of!Knowledge!Report!prepared!for!the!Washington!State!Department!of!Ecology.!!Climate!Impacts!Group,!University!of!Washington,!Seattle.!!!

82!!!!!Under!RCP!4.5!and!RCP!8.5,!respectively.!!

!


!!

Figure!1.!!Changing!hydrology!with!warming.!Maps!above!indicate!current!and!future!watershed!classifications,!based!on!the!proportion!of!winter!precipitation!stored!in!peak!annual!snowpack.!Graphs!below!indicate!current!and!future!average!monthly!streamflow!for!these!watershed!types.!Both!compare!average!historical!conditions!(1916P2006)!and!projected!future!conditions!for!two!time!periods,!the!2040s!(2030P2059)!and!the!2080s!(2070P2099),!under!a!medium!greenhouse!gas!scenario!(A1B).!Green!shading!in!the!maps!indicates!warm!(“rainPdominant”)!watersheds,!which!receive!little!winter!precipitation!in!the!form!of!snow.!In!these!basins,!streamflow!peaks!during!winter!months!and!warming!is!projected!to!have!little!effect!(below,!left).!Blue!indicates!cold!(“snowPdominant”)!watersheds,!that!is,!cold!basins!that!receive!more!than!40%!of!their!winter!precipitation!as!snow.!Depending!on!elevation,!these!basins!are!likely!to!experience!increasing!winter!precipitation!as!rain!and!increased!winter!flows!(below,!right).!The!most!sensitive!basins!to!warming!are!the!watersheds!that!are!near!the!current!snowline!(“mixed!rain!and!snow”),!shown!in!red.!These!are!middle!elevation!basins!that!receive!a!mixture!of!rain!and!snow!in!the!winter,!and!are!projected!to!experience!significant!increases!in!winter!flows!and!decreases!in!spring!flows!as!a!result!of!warming!(below,!center).!Source:!Hamlet!et!al.,!2013.!

!

10.1!!

!


Forests!Washington!forests!are!likely!to!become!increasingly!waterPlimited,!with!episodes!of!drought!increasing!in!area!and!intensity.!This!is!likely!to!lower!forest!productivity!in!some!areas,!while!also!increasing!vulnerability!to!disturbance,!such!as!fire!and!insect!damage.!!Drier,!warmer!conditions!are!likely!to!increase!forest!fire!risk!in!Washington!State.!This!is!because!projected!decreases!in!summer!precipitation!and!increases!in!summer!temperatures!would!reduce!moisture!of!existing!fuels,!facilitating!fire,!while!earlier!snowmelt!could!lead!to!earlier!onset!of!the!fire!season.!!Sea!Level!Rise!!Sea!level!rise!is!expected!to!affect!most!coastal!areas!in!Washington!State.!By!2100,!sea!level!rise!along!Washington’s!central!and!southern!coast!and!in!Puget!Sound!is!projected!to!increase!by!+4!to!+56!inches!by!2100,!relative!to!2000.!It!is!possible!that!sea!level!may!actually!fall!along!the!northwest!Olympic!Peninsula!over!the!next!few!decades,!because!the!rate!of!vertical!land!movement!is!currently!outpacing!the!rate!of!sea!level!rise.!!!Vertical!land!movement!is!a!process!which!plays!an!important!role!in!determining!local!and!regional!sea!level!rise.!Washington!State!is!a!tectonically!active!area!which!causes!the!land!surface!to!rise!and!fall!over!time.!As!discussed!above,!the!land!surface!of!Neah!Bay!along!the!Northwest!Olympic!Peninsula!is!currently!experiencing!uplift.!Conversely,!Seattle!and!surrounding!areas!are!subsiding,!which!exacerbates!the!local!effects!of!sea!level!as!the!land!surface!is!sinking.!!!

Projected!Changes#in#the#Climate#of#Washington#State!!


Projected*Projected!increase!in!average!annual!temperature!for!the!2050s!(2040P2069),!relative!to!1970P1999,!for!Washington!State:!!


Projected!increase!in!average!annual!temperature!for!the!2080s!(2070P2099),!relative!to!1970P1999,!for!Washington!state:!



***********

Projected!increase!in!seasonal!temperatures!for!the!2050s!(2040P2069),!relative!to!1970P1999,!for!Washington!State:!!Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.2°F!(range:!+2.9!to!+5.6°F)!



Summer!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.3°F!(range:!+3.6!to!+7.8°F)!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+7.1°F!(range:!+5.1!to!+10.1°F)!!


!


Temperature) )*****************

Number*of*Days*Above*Warm*Thresholds**


Projected!increase!in!seasonal!temperatures!for!the!2080s!(2060P2099),!relative!to!1970P1999,!for!Washington!State:!!Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+5.4°F!(range:!+4.4!to!+6.7°F)!



Summer!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+6.6°F!(range:!+4.7!to!+9.5°F)!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+11.7°F!(range:!+9.3!to!+15.9°F)!!


Projected!increase!in!the!number!of!days!above!various!thresholds!(80°F,!90°F,!100°F)!for!the!historical!period!(1970P1999),!2050s,!and!the!2080s.!!2050s!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!80°F:!!!!!!!Historical!(1970P1999):!40!days!! RCP!4.5:!+25!days!(range:!+18!to!+34!days)!!! RCP!8.5:!+33!days!(range:!+23!to!+41!days)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!90°F:!!!!!!!!Historical!(1970P1999):!11!days!RCP!4.5:!+16!days!(range:!+10!to!+22!days)!!RCP!8.5:!+22!days!(range:!+14!to!+29!days)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!100°F:!!!!!!Historical!(1970P1999):!1!day!

RCP!4.5:!+5!days!(range:!+3!to!+7!days)!!RCP!8.5:!+8!days!(range:!+4!to!+13!days)!

2080s!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!80°F:!!!!!!!!!Historical!(1970P1999):!40!days!!!!

RCP!4.5:!+30!days!(range:!+22!to!+40!days)!!RCP!8.5:!+52!days!(range:!+41!to!+66!days)!

!90°F:!!! Historical!(1970P1999):!11!days!

RCP!4.5:!+20!days!(range:!+14!to!+28!days)!!RCP!8.5:!+38!days!(range:!+27!to!+53!days)!!

100°F:!!!!!!!Historical!(1970P1999):!1!day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!RCP!4.5:!+7!days!(range:!+4!to!+11!days)!!RCP!8.5:!+18!days!(range:!+10!to!+27!days)!

!!

!Precipitation) )Seasonal*Precipitation*–*

Projected*Projected!change!in!seasonal!precipitation!for!the!2050s!(2040P2069),!relative!to!1970P1999,!for!Washington!State:!!Winter!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+10.5%!(range:!+1.1!to!+21.2%)!

!


!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+11.9%!(range:!+5.2!to!+19.5%)!!



Fall!!!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+4.9%!(range:!−1.9!to!+11.2%)!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+6.3%!(range:!−2.6!to!+18.3%)!!

Projected!increase!in!seasonal!precipitation!for!the!2080s!(2060P2099),!relative!to!1970P1999,!for!Washington!State:!!Winter!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+11.4%!(range:!+2.2!to!+17.4%)!


Spring!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+3.0%!(range:!−2.9!to!+12.0%)!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+5.0%!(range:!−2.6!to!+12.1%)!

*Summer!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−!12.8%!(range:!−28.5!to!+3.7%)!

!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−20.9%!(range:!−44.6!to!+8.3%)!!

Fall!!!!!!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+10.4%!(range:!+0.9!to!+21.8%)!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+9.8%!!!(range:!+2.8!to!+19.4%)!

Heavy*Precipitation*–*Projected*

********

*

Projected!changes!in!western!Oregon!and!Washington!precipitation!extremes!for!the!2080s!(2070P2099,!relative!to!1970P1999)!for!a!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario:!!

Annual!99th!percentile!of!24Phour!precipitation:!

+22%!(range:!+5!to!+34%)!

Frequency!of!exceeding!the!historical!99th!percentile!of!24Phour!precipitation:!!Historical!(1970P1999):!!!2!days!/!year!!Future!(2070P2099):!!!!!!!!7!days!/!year!(range:!4!to!9!days!/!year)!

!

Snow)April*1st*Snowpack*

*********

Ski!Season!Snow*Season*Length*

*

Projected!changes!in!Washington!State!average!April!1st!snowpack83;!for!the!2050s!(2040P2069)!and!the!2080s!(2070P2099),!relative!to!1970P1999:!2050s!

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −48.7%!(range:!−58.4!to!−31.9%)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −55.9%!(range:!−71!to!−40.5%)!!

2080s!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −60.6%!(range:!−71.9!to!−51.7%)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −76.1%!(range:!−87.7!to!−61.4%)!!

Increasing!air!temperatures!are!projected!to!result!in!a!shortening!of!the!length!of!the!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!83!!These!numbers!show!projected!changes!in!April!1st!Snow!Water!Equivalent!(SWE).!SWE!is!a!measure!of!the!total!amount!of!water!contained!in!the!snowpack.!April!1st!is!the!approximate!current!timing!of!peak!annual!snowpack!in!the!mountains!of!the!Northwest.!!

!


***********

*More*Warm*Winters*

**

*

snow!season.84!Projected!change!in!snow!season!length!for!the!2050s!(2040P2069)!and!2080s!(2070P2099),!relative!to!1970P1999,!for!Washington!State:!!2050s!

Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −25!days!(range:!−32!to!−18!days)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −33!days!(range:!−45!to!−21!days)!!

2080s!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!! −35!days!(range:!−46!to!−24!days)!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!! −55!days!(range:!−68!to!−39!days)!

!!!!Probability!of!a!warm!winter!(average!DecPFeb!temperature!above!freezing)!for!Washington!State!ski!resorts:!!!

Historic!(1971P2000):!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0!to!33%,!depending!on!location!With!+3.6°F[85]!of!warming:!!!!!!!!!!!!33!to!77%!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!84!!Snow!season!length!is!defined!as!the!number!of!days!between!the!date!of!10%!accumulation!and!90%!melt,!relative!to!annual!maximum!snow!water!equivalent.!!

85!!!!!+3.6°F!relative!to!1971P2000!is!near!the!low!end!of!warming!projected!for!midPcentury.!!

86!!!!!Average!projected!change!for!ten!global!climate!models,!averaged!over!Washington!State.!Range!spans!from!a!low!(B1)!to!a!medium!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!!

Streamflow) Projected)Long7term)Change)) !

*Annual** Mixed,!but!most!models!project!a!small!increase!in!annual!streamflow,!on!average!for!Washington!State.!

•! Total!annual!streamflow!is!projected!to!increase!slightly.!!

2040s!(2030P2059,!relative!to!1917P2006):!+2.1!to!+2.5%!2080s!(2070P2099,!relative!to!1917P2006):!+4.0!to!+6.2%[86]!!

!! Changes!are!small!relative!to!yearPtoPyear!variability!in!streamflow,!and!models!disagree!on!the!direction!of!change.!

*Winter** Mixed,!but!most!models!project!an!increase!in!winter!streamflow,!on!average!for!Washington!State.!

•!Winter!(OctPMar)!streamflow!change:!

2040s!(2030P2059,!relative!to!1917P2006):!+20!to!+16%!2080s!(2070P2099,!relative!to!1917P2006):!+25!to!+34%[86]!!

•! Changes!are!small!relative!to!yearPtoPyear!variability!in!winter!streamflow,!and!models!disagree!on!the!direction!of!change.!

*Summer** Mixed,!but!most!models!project!a!decrease!in!summer!streamflow,!on!average!for!Washington!State.!

•! Summer!(AprPSep)!streamflow!change:!

2040s!(2030P2059,!relative!to!1917P2006):!−30!to!−23%!

!


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!87! Average!projected!change!for!124!stream!locations!across!Washington!State.!Projections!are!made!using!ten!global!climate!models!and!a!medium!greenhouse!gas!scenario!(A1B).!

88!!!!!!Results!for!a!low!(B1)!and!medium!(A1B)!greenhouse!gas!scenario!for!112!medium!sized!watersheds!in!Washington.!!

89!! Watersheds!were!defined!as!rain!dominant!if!the!average!winter!temperature!(DecPFeb)!was!greater!than!35.6°F!(+2°C),!mixed!rain!and!snow!if!the!average!winter!temperature!(DecPFeb)!was!between!21.2!and!35.6°F!(P6!to!+2°C),!and!snow!dominant!if!the!average!winter!temperature!(DecPFeb)!was!below!21.2°F!(P6°C).!

2080s!(2070P2099,!relative!to!1917P2006):!−44!to!−34%[86]!!

•! Changes!are!small!relative!to!yearPtoPyear!variability!in!summer!streamflow,!and!models!disagree!on!the!direction!of!change.!

Streamflow*timing* Peak!streamflows!are!projected!to!occur!earlier!in!many!snowmeltPinfluenced!rivers!in!the!Northwest.!!

•! Peak!streamflow!is!projected!to!occur!4!to!9!weeks!earlier!by!the!2080s!(2070P2099,!relative!to!1917P2006)!in!four!Puget!Sound!watersheds!(Sultan,!Cedar,!Green,!Tolt)!and!the!Yakima!basin.[86]!!

**

Stream*temperatures*

!

Warming!

•! By!the!2080s!(2070P2099,!relative!to!1970P1999)[87],!more!stream!locations!are!projected!to!experience!weekly!summer!stream!temperatures!stressful!to!adjust!salmon!(in!excess!of!67°F!):!

Eastern!Washington:!! 19%!more!sites!Western!Washington:! 16%!more!sites!!

•!Many!stream!locations!projected!to!exceed!70°F!for!the!entire!summer!season!by!2080!–!resulting!in!waters!that!are!warm!enough!to!impede!migration!and!increase!the!risk!of!fish!kills.!

Flooding* Increases!in!most!watersheds!

•!Projected!changes!in!streamflow!volume!associated!with!the!100!year!(1%!annual!probability)!flood!event,!by!basin!type,!in!Washington!State!for!the!2080s!(2070P2099,!relative!to!1916P2006):!

Rain!dominant!watersheds:!! +18%!(range:!+11!to!+26%)!Mixed!rainPsnow!watersheds:!! +32%!(range:!−33!to!+132%)!Snow!dominant!watersheds:!! −2%!(range:!−15!to!+22%)[88][89]!!

•!Projected!changes!in!heavy!rainfall!are!not!included!in!the!above!projections.!Preliminary!research!indicates!an!increase!in!the!proportion!of!heavy!rain!events!occurring!in!early!fall.!Both!changes!will!likely!increase!flood!risk!in!rain!dominant!and!mixed!rain!and!snow!watersheds,!especially!west!of!the!Cascade!crest.!

!


!Oceans) )**************************Sea*Level*–************************Projected*

Rising!for!all!scenarios!

!!!!!!!!!!Seattle,!WA:!!!!!!!+4!to!+56!inches!(2100,!relative!to!2000)!

Ocean*Acidification*–*Projected*

Global!Increase!by!2100!for!all!scenarios!(relative!to!1986P2005).!!

!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!! +38!to!+41%!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!!!!!!!!!!+100!to!+109%*

!For!more!information!on!climate!change!impacts!in!Washington,!see!Climate*Change*Impacts*and*Adaptation*in*Washington*State:*Technical*Summaries*for*Decision*Makers!(2013),!available!at!https://cig.uw.edu/resources/specialPreports/waPsok/.!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!90!!The!7Q10!flow!is!the!lowest!7Pday!average!flow!that!occurs!on!average!once!every!10!years.!7Q10!flows!are!a!common!standard!for!defining!low!flow!for!the!purpose!of!setting!permit!discharge!limits.!

Minimum*flows*********

Runoff***

*

Decreased!flow!in!most!watersheds!

•!Projected!changes!for!changes!in!7Q10!flows,[90]!by!basin!type,!in!Washington!State!for!the!2080s!(2070P2099,!relative!to!1916P2006):!

Rain!dominant!watersheds:!! −14%!(−44!to!−3%)!Mixed!rainPsnow!watersheds:!! −15%!(−60!to!+14%)!Snow!dominant!watersheds:!! −6%!(−12!to!+4%)[88][89]!!

Projected!change!in!summer!and!winter!runoff!for!the!2050s!(2040P2069)!and!2080s!(2070P2099),!relative!to!1970P1999,!for!Washington!state:!!2050s!Winter*(OctMMarch)!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+23.3!cm!(range:!+18.3!to!+31.4!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+28.8!cm!(range:!+16.5!to!+43.7!cm)!!Summer*(AprilMSept)!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−2.1!cm!(range:!−6.5!to!+6.4!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−2.4!cm!(range:!−12.5!to!+8.6!cm)!!

2080s!Winter*(OctMMarch)!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!+32.0!cm!(range:!+13.4!to!+43.1!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!+45.6!cm!(range:!+37.6!to!+55.2!cm)!!Summer*(AprilMSept)!!!!!!Low!emissions!(RCP!4.5):!!−3.7!cm!(range:!−13.8!to!+12.9!cm)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!High!emissions!(RCP!8.5):!−6.1!cm!(range:!−16.35!to!+1.5!cm)!

!

!Appendix!C:!Projected!Changes!in!Northwest!Region!SWE!! Page!157!

Appendix#C:#Projected#Changes#in#Northwest#Region#SWE####Prepared#by###Harriet#Morgan,#Lara#Whitely#Binder,#and#Dan#Siemann#University#of#Washington#Climate#Impacts#Group#!!!

##

!

!

Appendix!C:!Projected!Changes!in!Northwest!Region!SWE!! Page!158!

Figure'1'(left).!Projected!change!in!December!1!snow!

water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!

2050s!(2040K2069)!and!2080s!

(2070K2099),!relative!to!1970K

1999.!Changes!are!for!a!low!

(RCP!4.5)!and!high!(RCP!8.5)!

greenhouse!gas!scenario.!Areas!

with!deeper!reds!and!oranges!

indicate!areas!with!greater!loss!

of!SWE.!Figure!source:!R.!

Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!

Group.!!!

Figure'2'(right).!Projected!change!in!January!1!snow!water!

equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!2050s!

(2040K2069)!and!2080s!(2070K

2099),!relative!to!1970K1999.!

Changes!are!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!

and!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!

gas!scenario.!Areas!with!deeper!

reds!and!oranges!indicate!areas!

with!greater!loss!of!SWE.!Figure!

source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!

Climate!Impacts!Group.!!!

!

!

!

!

!

! !

!

!


!

Figure'3'(left).!Projected!change!in!February!1!snow!


2050s!(2040K2069)!and!2080s!




greenhouse!gas!scenario.!

Areas!with!deeper!reds!and!

oranges!indicate!areas!with!

greater!loss!of!SWE.!Figure!


Climate!Impacts!Group.!!

!

Figure'4'(right).!Projected!change!in!March!1!snow!water!

equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!

2050s!(2040K2069)!and!2080s!









Climate!Impacts!Group.!!! !

!

!


Figure'5.!Projected!change!in!April!1!snow!water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!2050s!(2040K

2069)!and!2080s!(2070K2099),!relative!to!1970K1999.!Changes!are!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!and!

high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!Areas!with!deeper!reds!and!oranges!indicate!areas!

with!greater!loss!of!SWE.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!Appendix!C:!Projected!Changes!in!Northwest!Region!SWE!! Page!161!

Appendix(C:(Projected(Changes(in(Southwest(Region(SWE((((Prepared(by(((Harriet(Morgan,(Lara(Whitely(Binder,(and(Dan(Siemann(University(of(Washington(Climate(Impacts(Group(!!!

((

!

!

Appendix!C:!Projected!Changes!in!Southwest!Region!SWE!! Page!162!



2050s!(2040J2069)!and!2080s!

(2070J2099),!relative!to!1970J








Group.!!!

Figure'2'(right).!Projected!change!in!January!1!snow!water!


(2040J2069)!and!2080s!(2070J

2099),!relative!to!1970J1999.!








!

!

!

!

!

! !

!

!


Figure'3'(left).!Projected!change!in!February!1!snow!


2050s!(2040J2069)!and!2080s!









Climate!Impacts!Group.!!

!


equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!

2050s!(2040J2069)!and!2080s!










!

!


Figure'5.!Projected!change!in!April!1!snow!water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!2050s!(2040J

2069)!and!2080s!(2070J2099),!relative!to!1970J1999.!Changes!are!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!and!

high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!Areas!with!deeper!reds!and!oranges!indicate!areas!

with!greater!loss!of!SWE.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!Appendix!C:!Projected!Changes!in!Eastern!Region!SWE!! Page!165!

Appendix(C:(Projected(Changes(in(Eastern(Region(SWE((((Prepared(by(((Harriet(Morgan,(Lara(Whitely(Binder,(and(Dan(Siemann(University(of(Washington(Climate(Impacts(Group(!!!

((

!

!

Appendix!C:!Projected!Changes!in!Eastern!Region!SWE!! Page!166!


water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!

the!2050s!(2040J2069)!and!

2080s!(2070J2099),!relative!to!

1970J1999.!Changes!are!for!a!

low!(RCP!4.5)!and!high!(RCP!

8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!





Climate!Impacts!Group.!'!

Figure'2'(right).!Projected!change!in!January!1!snow!

water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!

the!2050s!(2040J2069)!and!

2080s!(2070J2099),!relative!to!

1970J1999.!Changes!are!for!a!

low!(RCP!4.5)!and!high!(RCP!

8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!






!

!

''

!

!


'Figure'3'(left).!Projected!change!in!February!1!snow!


2050s!(2040J2069)!and!2080s!









Group.!!

!



(2040J2069)!and!2080s!(2070J

2099),!relative!to!1970J1999.!








!

!


Figure'5.!Projected!change!in!April!1!snow!water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!2050s!

(2040J2069)!and!2080s!(2070J2099),!relative!to!1970J1999.!Changes!are!for!a!

low!(RCP!4.5)!and!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!Areas!with!deeper!

reds!and!oranges!indicate!areas!with!greater!loss!of!SWE.!Figure!source:!R.!

Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!!

!

!

!

!

!Appendix!C:!Projected!Changes!in!Statewide!SWE!!! ! Page!169!

Appendix(C:(Projected(Changes(in(Statewide(SWE((((Prepared(by(((Harriet(Morgan,(Lara(Whitely(Binder,(and(Dan(Siemann(University(of(Washington(Climate(Impacts(Group(!!!

((

!


Figure'1.!Projected!change!in!December!1!snow!water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!2050s!(2040K2069)!and!2080s!(2070K2099),!relative!to!1970K1999.!Changes!are!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!and!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!Areas!with!deeper!reds!and!oranges!indicate!areas!with!greater!loss!of!SWE.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!!!''''''''''Figure'2'(right).!Projected!change!in!January!1!snow!water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!2050s!(2040K2069)!and!2080s!(2070K2099),!relative!to!1970K1999.!Changes!are!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!and!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!Areas!with!deeper!reds!and!oranges!indicate!areas!with!greater!loss!of!SWE.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!!!!!!!!! !

!


Figure'3.!Projected!change!in!February!1!snow!water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!2050s!(2040K2069)!and!2080s!(2070K2099),!relative!to!1970K1999.!Changes!are!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!and!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!Areas!with!deeper!reds!and!oranges!indicate!areas!with!greater!loss!of!SWE.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!!!'''''''''''Figure'4.!Projected!change!in!March!1!snow!water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!2050s!(2040K2069)!and!2080s!(2070K2099),!relative!to!1970K1999.!Changes!are!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!and!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!Areas!with!deeper!reds!and!oranges!indicate!areas!with!greater!loss!of!SWE.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!!

!


Figure'5.!Projected!change!in!April!1!snow!water!equivalent!(SWE)!for!the!2050s!(2040K2069)!and!2080s!(2070K2099),!relative!to!1970K1999.!Changes!are!for!a!low!(RCP!4.5)!and!high!(RCP!8.5)!greenhouse!gas!scenario.!Areas!with!deeper!reds!and!oranges!indicate!areas!with!greater!loss!of!SWE.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!

!

!Appendix!D:!Sea!Level!Rise!Inundation!Maps!! ! Page!173!

Appendix(D:(Sea(Level(Rise(Inundation(Maps((((Prepared(by(((Harriet(Morgan,(Lara(Whitely(Binder,(and(Dan(Siemann(University(of(Washington(Climate(Impacts(Group(!!!

(!!!!!

!!Bay!View!State!Park!! ! pg.!176!Belfair!State!Park!! ! pg.!177!Birch!Bay!State!Park!! ! pg.!178!Blake!Island!State!Park!! ! pg.!179!Bottle!Beach!State!Park!! ! pg.!180!Cama!Beach!State!Park!! ! pg.!181!Camano!Island!State!Park!! pg.!182!Dash!Point!State!Park!! ! pg.!183!Deception!Pass!State!Park!! pg.!184!Dosewallips!State!Park! ! pg.!185!Fort!Casey!State!Park!! ! pg.!186!Fort!Ebey!State!Park!! ! pg.!187!Fort!Flagler!State!Park!! ! pg.!188!Fort!Worden!State!Park!! ! pg.!189!Iceberg!Island!State!Park!!! pg.!190!Illahee!State!Park!! ! pg.!191!Jones!Island!State!Park!! ! pg.!192!

Joseph!Whidbey!State!Park!! ! pg.!193!Kopachuck!State!Park!! ! ! pg.!194!Larrabee!State!Park!! ! ! pg.!195!Lime!Kiln!State!Park!!! ! ! pg.!196!Manchester!State!Park!! ! ! pg.!197!McMicken!Island!State!Park!! ! pg.!198!Obstruction!Pass!State!Park!! ! pg.!199!Posey!Island!State!Park!! ! ! pg.!200!Potlach!State!Park!! ! ! pg.!201!Saltwater!State!Park!! ! ! pg.!202!Scenic!Beach!State!Park!! ! ! pg.!203!South!Whidbey!State!Park!! ! pg.!204!Spencer!Spit!State!Park!! ! ! pg.!205!Tolmie!State!Park!! ! ! pg.!206!Turn!Island!State!Park!! ! ! pg.!207!Twanoh!State!Park!! ! ! pg.!208!!

!!

(!!!! !

!


Overview'|'This!set!of!sea!level!rise!maps!integrates!GIS!information!on!facilities,!roads,!and!other!park!features!for!the!subset!of!parks!that!staff!chose!to!view!during!regional!workshops!with!agency!staff.!The!maps!show!areas!potentially!affected!by!+1!foot!and!+2!feet!of!sea!level!rise!relative!to!the!ordinary!high!tide!(the!Mean!High!High!Water!mark,!or!MHHW).!A!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!This!storm!surge!level!is!the!approximate!value!of!the!observed!1%!annual!probability!water!level!(i.e.,!the!100Kyear!storm!tide)!for!the!Puget!Sound!region!and!outer!Washington!coast,!excluding!Toke!Point,!and!relative!to!MHHW!(Zervas!2005;!see!also,!NOAA!Extreme!Water!Levels91).!Surge!at!individual!locations!will!vary!slightly!from!this!value;!the!value!for!Toke!Point!is!considerably!higher:!+5.7!feet!(Zervas!2005).!Research!does!not!project!any!change!in!maximum!storm!surge!at!this!time,!however!higher!sea!level!will!increase!the!potential!for!damage!by!storm!surge!by!allowing!surge!to!reach!further!inland.'!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!by!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!K1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!third!representation!of!potential!sea!level!rise!risk!is!found!by!combining!the!value!of!the!mean!increase!in!sea!level!rise!for!2100!(+2!feet)!with!the!+3!feet!storm!surge!level.!This!combined!value!(+5!feet,!or!+60!inches)!illustrates!areas!that!could!be!permanently!inundated!by!the!current!upper!estimate!for!sea!level!rise!in!2100!(+56!inches).!!!It!is!important!to!remember!that!while!the!maps!are!useful!for!showing!areas!that!are!likely!to!be!permanently!inundated!or!affected!by!higher!surge,!the!maps!are!not!able!to!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing.!These!processes!can!influence!how!sea!level!rise!affects!a!park!by!changing!the!shape!of!a!coastline!over!time!and!altering!sediment!movement!in!the!nearshore.!This!also!means!that!the!size!of!the!projected!inundation/storm!surge!zones!should!not!be!the!sole!determinant!for!interpreting!how!sea!level!rise!affects!parks.!This!is!particularly!true!in!the!Puget!Sound!region,!where!many!beaches!are!narrow!and!backed!by!coastal!bluffs.!!The!maps!for!individual!parks!were!created!using!just!two!data!sources:!!Washington!State!Parks!GIS!data!and!NOAA!Sea!Level!Rise!data.!!!!The!Parks!GIS!data!consists!of!6!geodatasets!available!at!http://biz.parks.wa.gov/gis/:!!!!

1.! Accommodation!Features,!!2.! Boundaries,!!3.! Facility!Inventory,!!4.! Roadways,!!5.! Trails,!and!6.! Walkways!!

!Boundaries,!Trails,!and!Walkways!were!mapped!as!provided.!Roadways!were!mapped!in!three!categories,!park,!campground,!and!public!roads.!The!Facility!Inventory!was!also!mapped!in!three!categories:!Historic,!>!1000!square!feet,!and!<!1000!square!feet.!The!Accommodation!Features!dataset!contains!a!wide!variety!of!types!of!features.!All!of!the!structures!in!the!Facility!Inventory!were!also!in!the!Accommodation!Features,!so!these!were!screened!out!of!the!Accommodation!Features!so!they!would!not!be!mapped!twice.!Also,!minor!features!such!as!picnic!tables!and!fire!rings!were!screened!out!and!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!91!Available!at:!https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/est/!

!


not!mapped.!About!half!of!the!remaining!Accommodation!Features!are!parking,!so!these!were!mapped!with!a!‘P’!symbol.!The!rest!of!the!Accommodation!Features!were!grouped!together!and!mapped!as!a!point!feature.!!Data'Souce''The!Sea!Level!Rise!data!was!downloaded!from!the!NOAA!Office!for!Coastal!Management!(https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr.html).!The!website!has!extensive!documentation!as!to!how!the!data!were!developed.!In!summary,!their!goals!were!to:!!

•!Use!best!publically!available!and!accessible!elevation!data!!•!Map!literatureKsupported!levels!of!sea!level!rise!!•!Map!sea!level!rise!on!top!of!mean!higher!high!water!(MHHW)!!•!Incorporate!local!and!regional!tidal!variation!of!MHHW!for!each!area!!•!Evaluate!inundation!for!hydrological!connectivity!

!Unfortunately,!either!the!elevation!data!or!the!determination!of!MHHW!for!the!Washington!state!outer!coast!was!flawed,!such!that!the!mapping!results!for!the!parks!in!the!beach!zone!were!incorrect.!Also,!NOAA!did!not!map!the!northern!portion!of!the!San!Juan!Islands,!so!that!we!cannot!provide!sea!level!rise!maps!for!the!parks!on!Patos,!Sucia,!Stuart,!Matia!and!Clark!Islands.!These!issues!has!been!reported!to!NOAA!and!will!hopefully!be!addressed!in!a!future!revision!of!their!dataset.!!A!handful!of!park!maps!contain!data!from!a!third!source,!the!National!Hydrography!Dataset,!where!there!are!lakes!or!wetlands!in!the!park!(e.g.,!Deception!Pass).!

!


Figure'1.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Bay$View$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

!


Figure'2.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Belfair$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

!


Figure'3.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Birch$Bay$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

!


Figure'4.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Blake$Island$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

!


''''''''''''''''''''''''''

'Figure'5.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Bottle$Beach$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

!


Figure'6.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Cama$Beach$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

!


Figure'7.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Camano$Island$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

!


Figure'8.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Dash$Point$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'9.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Deception$Pass$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'10.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Dosewallips$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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'Figure'11.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Fort$Casey$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!!

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Figure'12.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Fort$Ebey$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'13.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Fort$Flagler$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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'Figure'14.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Fort$Worden$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'15.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Iceberg$Island$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'16.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Illahee$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'17.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Jones$Island$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'18.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Joseph$Whidbey$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'19.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Kopachuck$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'20.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Larrabee$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'21.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Lime$Kiln$Point$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.! !

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Figure'22.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Manchester$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'23.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!McMicken$Island$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'24.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Obstruction$Pass$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.! !

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Figure'25.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Posey$Island$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'26.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Potlatch$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'27.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Saltwater$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'28.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Scenic$Beach$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'29.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!South$Whidbey$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.! !

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Figure'30.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Spencer$Spit$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'31.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Tolmie$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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Figure'32.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Turn$Island$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!! !

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'Figure'33.!Sea!level!rise!maps!for!Twanoh$State!Park.!The!+1!and!+2!foot!sea!level!rise!values!shown!on!the!maps!are!proximate!to!or!within!the!current!range!of!sea!level!rise!projected!for!Washington!for!2050!(mean!of!+6!in.!with!a!range!of!L1!to!+19!in.)!and!2100!(mean!of!+24!in.!with!a!range!of!+4!to!+56!in.)!(NRC!2012).!A!1%!annual!probability!storm!surge!value!of!+3!feet!is!also!mapped.!The!maps!do!not!capture!the!dynamic!effects!of!coastal!erosion!and!bluff!sloughing,!which!can!affect!the!reach!of!inundation!zones!over!time.!Figure!source:!R.!Norheim,!UW!Climate!Impacts!Group.!!

preparing washington state parks for climate change

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