preparing for the future · 7:30 a.m. registration and breakfast 8:00 a.m. welcome and greetings...
TRANSCRIPT
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Preparing for the Future
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Thank you to our sponsors
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Thanks to the following organizations that purchased tables.
Coldwell Banker Commercial Sun Coast
PartnersMcKim & Creed
UNCW- University Advancement
Cape Fear Community College
nCinoUNCW – Cameron Executive Network
Duke EnergyNew Hanover County
Government
UNCW – Center for Innovation &
Entrepreneurship
Greater Wilmington Business Journal
New Hanover Regional Medical Center
Wells Insurance
Maus, Warwick, Matthews & Co.
WHQR Public Media
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Agenda 7:30 a.m. Registration and Breakfast8:00 a.m. Welcome and Greetings8:10 a.m. Economic and Market
Forecasts8:30 a.m. Preparing for the Future9:15 a.m. Table Discussion and
Questions for Speakers9:35 a.m. Closing Remarks 9:45 a.m. Conclude
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The U.S. Economy: Losing its Legs?Thomas D. Simpson, Ph.D.
Department of Economics and Finance
University of North Carolina Wilmington
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
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Departing from Script• This expansion: Longest on record• Inflation: Still subdued, despite a very tight
labor market• Interest rates: Very low• Monetary policy: Fed has been lowering—
not raising—its policy rate• Sustainable growth: Down to around 2
percent
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Growth Has Slowed
2017 2018 2019Q1 Q2 Q3e
2.8 2.5 3.1 2.0 2.0
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
e - estimate
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Some Believe the Yield Curve is Pointing to Recession
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Per
cent
10yr minus 3m
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
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But Model-based Recession Probability is Low
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
Per
cent
Smoothed US Recession Probabilities
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
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The Consumer Has Kept Things Going
• Following a pause around year-end, consumers have opened their wallets.
• However, business investment spending has been subdued, despite a very favorable tax situation
• The external sector has been adversely affected by a slowdown abroad and a strong dollar
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Acting as a Serious Headwind is Trade Policy Uncertainty
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ind
ex
Trade Policy Uncertainty
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
• Such uncertainty has been off the charts recently, discouraging business investment
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Consumers in Good Position
Growth inConsumption
2016 2017 2018 2019e
2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
e – Estimate based on first three quarters
• Job growth remains solid• Wage growth is firming
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Confidence Remains Buoyant
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
GD
P G
row
th
Sen
timen
t In
dex
Consumer Sentiment
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
GDP Growth
GDP Contraction
Current
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Wealth Positions Are Strong
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Rat
io
Ratio of Net Worth to Disposable Income
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
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And Debt-Service Burdens Light
9.510
10.511
11.512
12.513
13.514
Per
cent
Debt Service Burden
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
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Despite a Favorable Climate, Businesses Capital Spending Has Been Cautious
44
49
54
59
64
69
$ B
illio
ns
Manufacturers’ New Orders
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
• 2017 tax reform boosted rates of return and financing costs remain low
• But orders for capital goods have been flat
• Business leaders point to trade policy uncertainty, though lower oil prices have led to a cutback on oil field outlays
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Uncertainty Has Affected Small Business Optimism
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Per
cent
NFIB Optimism Index
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
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The Outlook Depends on Business Investment
2019 2020 20212.3 2.0 2.0
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
• Absent a resolution of trade policy rifts, capital spending will remain lackluster
• Struggling economies abroad will be a drag on exports
• The United States will continue to grow, but only in line with potential
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Growth Will be Sufficient to Keep Unemployment Low
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Per
cent
Unemployment Rate
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
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Some of the Employment Gains Have Come From People Coming Off the Sidelines
80.5
81
81.5
82
82.5
83
83.5
Per
cent
Labor Force Participation: 25-44 Years
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
• But the prime age participation rate is not up on balance this year
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Inflation May Drift Above the Fed’s 2 Percent Target
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
Per
cent
Core PCE Inflation
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
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Fed Likely to be Squeezed Between White House Pressure and Inflation Concerns
• Tension between the market and the Fed on the rate outlook
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
CurrentEnd 2019
End 2020
End 2021
Market 1.85 1.5 1.1 1.1Fed 1.9 1.9 2.0
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Preparing for the Future
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The Regional Outlook: When the Sun Is Out, Don’t Forget to SmileDr. Adam T. Jones
Department Chair and Regional Economist
Cameron School of Business – Swain Center
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
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Your View
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
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Sunny With a Dark Cloud
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Florence Was the Story…
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Loca
l Rat
e –
Nat
iona
l Rat
e
Months Pre and Post Storm
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Baton RougeHouston
New Orleans
Atlantic City
Source: BLS
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Hospitality Most Exposed
9092949698
100102104106108110
Ind
ex
Sectoral Employment
Ed & Health Prof Bus Serv Fin, Ins, Real EstateTrade & Trans Manufacturing Leis. And Hosp
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: BLS
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Growth Settling Into Normal
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
% G
row
th
Wilmington MSA GDP Growth
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: BEA
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Unemployment Ticking Up Slightly
23456789
101112
Rat
e
Unemployment Rate
Three County NC US
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Aug. 4.3%
Source: BLS
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Sales Continuing to Grow, But Levelling
02468
1012141618
Per
cent
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
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Home Prices Rising Again
90110130150170190210230250
Ind
ex
NHC Home Price Index
3Br 4Br 5+Br
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: Zillow
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Labor Market Tightening, “New Wages” Increasing
$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Wag
e
Op
enin
gs (0
00s)
Wage Openings
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: NC Works
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Wages Growing But Slowing
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
% G
row
th Y
oY
Earnings Growth in Wilmington MSA
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: BLS
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Homes Remain “Somewhat Affordable”
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Rat
io
Home Price to Income
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: BLS/FHFA
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Gasoline Prices Remain Favorable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Ind
ex
Gasoline Gas / Wage
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: US EIA
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Room Occupancy Distorted
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
% G
row
th
NHC Peak Season ROT Growth
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: NHC
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Non-Tourists Still In ROT Data
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Dol
lars
(m)
NHC Occupancy Taxes
2017 2018 2019
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: NHC
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Room Occupancy Distorted But Likely Slowing
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
% G
row
th
Peak Season ROT Growth
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: NHC
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Room Occupancy Distorted But Likely Slowing
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
% G
row
th
Peak Season ROT Growth
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: NHC
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But…
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Some Believe the Yield Curve is Pointing to Recession
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Per
cent
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: STL Fed
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Construction Remains Slightly Sluggish
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
Num
ber
of P
erm
its
Housing Units Permitted
Total Single-Family
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: Census
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Uncertainty Is Rising
30507090
110130150170190210230
Ind
ex (Q
uart
erly
Avg
)
Economic Policy Uncertainty
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: Baker Bloom Davis
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Carolina Business Expectations
-30-25-20-15-10-505
10152025
YoY
Cha
nge
(3m
TA
)
Change in Expectations
Sales General Employment
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: Richmond Fed
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Recreational Goods Expenditures
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Per
cent
Regional GDP Growth NC Total NC Per Capita National Total
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Source: BEA
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RV Shipments Declining
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Shi
pm
ents
(000
s)
2017 2018 2019
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Inflection Point(May 2018)
Source: RVIA
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RV Shipments Declining
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Per
cent
YoY Growth
© 10/21/2019 Swain Center All Rights Reserved
Source: RVIA
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Forecast
2019 2020
US Economy 2.3% 2.0%Wilmington MSA 1.9% 1.6%
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Sunny With a Dark Cloud
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The World is Changing
Big Data & Augmented Intelligence
Rise of Millennials, Women, and
Diversity
Personal Transformation,
Resiliency, & Agility
Future Trends
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Table Activity• How will the economic outlook and future
trends impact you and your organization?
• As time permits, what is one question your table would want to ask one of the speakers?
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Your Feedback is Valued• You have two options: online or hard copy.
uncw.edu/EOCFeedback• We encourage you to use the online version.