preparing for the 21st century chapter 13: the american dilemma chris calagis, eric elliott, jay...
TRANSCRIPT
Preparing For the 21st Century
Chapter 13:
The American Dilemma
Chris Calagis, Eric Elliott, Jay Mathias,
Mike Maulone and Serge Svarovsky
The American Dilemma
There has been much debate over America’s future
Conservatives emphasize achievements Winning the Cold War Success of Capitalism
The American Dilemma
Liberals have a more pessimistic view Social and educational decay Decline of middle-class standard of living Erosion of economic leadership Large military presence abroad
The American Century
The 20th Century was named “The American Century” by Henry Luce
This expression contained enormous psychological and cultural power
Became a source of pride for Americans
United States Armed Forces
The U.S. military is the strongest and most influential force in the world
Not the largest military in the world High technology weapons Versatility of location
The World’s Policeman How do other countries feel about this? Is this important for the world?
Military Spending
Does military spending hurt the U.S. economy? $300 billion dollars spent on national defense every
year - 65% of R&D dollars allocated to defense compared to 0.5% for environmental protection and 0.2% for industrial development
Other countries such as Japan and Germany allocate almost 50% of government monies directly into their economy
– RESULT: These countries have made significant gains to catch up with the US economy
Military Spending
Diverts other resources away from non-military production:
capital, personnel, materials, skilled labor, engineers, and scientists
However defense spending can stimulate the economy
example: post-war economic trends, such as after WW II
U.S. Growth Rates
Steadily declining over the past 50 years Kennedy blames military spending and diversion of
other resources
However, these statements have been proven to be untrue
Economic growth has increased since the release of the book
Labor Productivity
U.S. has been the world’s labor productivity leader since the 19th century
Allowed for huge war production in both World Wars
Still the global leader in productivity but by a much smaller margin than in the past
Other countries (Germany and Japan) have increased productivity at a faster pace than the U.S.
Labor Productivity
Consequences of lower labor productivity: growing indebtedness frailty of financial system deficits in trade balances
Debt
Occurs at different levels: national government state and local government consumer corporate
Debt
The national debt originally arose from the refusal of lawmakers to raise taxes in order to cover spending increases in the 1960s
The debt skyrocketed during the Cold War under Reagan in the 1980s
Debt is now over $5.5 trillion Each Americans share of the debt is approx. $21k 15% of government spending goes to pay interest
on debt
Debt
State and local government debts increased in the 1980s when federal grants were cut
Consumer debt has continually increased due to easier credit
Corporate debt was so high at one point that 90% of after-tax income was going to pay interest on borrowed money
Trade Deficit
Arises from importing more than you export U.S. had its first trade deficit in 1971 Trade deficit neared $200 billion in 1987 Now stays around $100 billion
Trade Deficit
Deficit led to a battle over tariffs Some favored protectionary tariffs on imported
goods Others were fearful of a tariff backlash by other
countries Out of this debate came trade agreements
NAFTA and GATT
Why worry?
Even with high lower productivity, high debt and a trade deficit, U.S. is still #1
Many think that these declines are natural U.S. was simply so far ahead after WWII that it took
a while for other countries to catch up
Others believe that this trend spells trouble borrowing to pay interest, huge foreign investments,
and reliance on foreign capital could erode American sovereignty
What to do?
No matter what you may think, things have changed
The business world is now enmeshed in a global marketplace
Leaders of countries and companies must realize this and react accordingly
U.S. can stay #1 by thinking globally and reacting to the changing world
Being Debated in America
Health-care Drugs and Violence Political Culture and Taxes Education Where we are headed?
In the words of John Chancellor
“We have weakened ourselves in the way we practice our politics, manage our businesses, teach our children, succor our poor, care for our elders, save our money, protect our environment, and run our government.”
Health Care in Jeopardy
1980’s health care workers doubled 37 million lack health care U.S. has highest infant mortality rate among
developed countries
Drugs and Violence
U.S. makes up 4-5% of world population but consumes 50% of world’s cocaine
Highest crime rate in world 180 million handguns and rifles 19,000 killed/year by weapons Homicide rates 4-5 times higher than Europe Rape crimes 7 times higher
Social and Political Dilemma
Americans hate taxes Politically unpopular
Some European countries’ taxes account for:– college tuition– health care– public transportation
Education Strong Points
1989 U.S. spent $350 billion on public and private education
Best Collegiate system in world Caters to scientists (nobel prize winners) Every American has Education privileges
Education Weak Points
1960 to present - SAT scores decreasing 1/5 of all high school pupils drop out 1/2 of inner city kids drop out About 25 million Americans illiterate K-12 pupils behind Japan, S. Korea and Europe
(nearly last in math) 75% can not locate Persian Gulf on map
Education System (cont)
American schools 175-180 days/year W. Europe schools 200 + days/year Japan school 220 + days/year By age 18 - S. Korea and Japan children have 3
more years of education
American Children’s Priorities
5,000 hours of TV watched before entering grade school
20,000 hours by graduation Why??? Babysitter
U.S. kids learning value system and moral standards from TV
Americans Want Change to:
Tax system Schools Health Care Poverty Crime Politics
Will America Persevere?
John Chancellor wrote that the U.S. needs a peace time Pearl Harbor to invigorate Americans to work - wake up and realize our troubles
How well prepared is the U.S. for the 21st Century? Population forecast
steady growth in terms of age and ethnicity
Figures 1960: 16.5 million Americans were age 65+ 1990: 31 million Americans were age 65+
Forecast 2020: 52 million Americans will be age 65+ 2030: 65.5 million Americans will be age 65+
By Early 21st Century, the elderly will outnumber children in the U.S.
Retirees’ Organization Division of Resources Social Security Funds Unpleasant Choices
Slash provisions Other spending Increase taxes upon younger Americans
Ethnic composition will change in the 21st century Large scale immigration
legal and illegal
Differentiation in birth rates ethnic groups will have higher rates
Views both negative and positive immigrants have fueled country in the past low educational and skill levels congregate in inner cities additional demands on U.S.
THE WORK FORCE
A WIDENING IN THE GAP BETWEEN THE SKILLED AND
UNSKILLED WORKERS
This spreading started in the 1970’s and will continue into the 21st century
Loss of skilled and relatively high paying blue collar jobs
Growth in white collar, technical jobs advanced training higher education
By the end of this century, 52% of new jobs will require some college education
Kennedy’s forecast and possible solutions White males will constitute only 15% in the labor
force Mismatch between education levels and the
forecast demand for jobs requiring advanced education
Kennedy’s suggested solutions: Set up a national scheme Use the states to have chief contact with population
American Agriculture
Newer global forces Biotechnology Global warming
Conglomerates to replace traditional farmers Pharmaceutical firms Agrochemical firms
U.S. is leader in agricultural output
Improved technology Abundance of crops Foreign market Subsidization by government Biotechnology
artificial sweeteners bovine growth hormone
Impacts of Biotechnology on the Agricultural Sector (cont)
Small farms mere 10% will be able to adopt biotechnology diversified income lessens the impact
Moderate-sized farms 40% will adopt biotechnology will continue to shrink and go out of business
Large farms 70% will adopt biotechnology will grow in size and efficiency: by the year 2000,
50,000 of them will be producing 3/4 of all output
* US Office of Technology Assessment data
Possible Effects of Global Warming
Depletion of water supplies in southern Great Plains Northward movement of crop growing regions Northward forest migration
threat to the wildlife Coastal shoreline retreat
MA will loose 3,000-10,000 acres by 2025 in SC-NJ shoreline losses will be even greater
Environmental changes outside national boundaries
U.S. May Not Be a “Loser” But It Could Be Less Than a Clear “Winner”
Altering demographic pattern graying/browning
Environmental problems Educational and social deficits Political-constitutional gridlock Fiscal problems
National debt Consumer debt, etc..
Trade deficit
Nature of American Society Discourages Any National “Plan”
Tradition of American free enterprise and its cultural heritage:
Differentiation Decentralization Individualism Dislike of organized central government
“Muddling through” rather than centralized attack upon the problems will result
20th Century United States vs. 19th Century Great Britain
Both were preemptive world powers In both countries:
economic competitiveness and international position were less assured at century’s end than 50 years earlier
alarmed citizens called for changes to improve national competitiveness
proposed reforms threatened “coziness” of established lifestyles
United States today faces the same dilemma Great Britain faced 100 years ago
To “muddle through” or not to “muddle through”?
Resistance to “Great Changes”
National traditions has to be amended in imitation of foreign ones
Involve costs and redistribution of national resources
Upset powerful vested interests– spending priorities– educational system– patterns of career choice, etc. etc..
Price Paid for “Muddling Through”
Slow but steady relative decline in– Living standards– Educational levels– Social provisions– Industrial leadership
Ultimately - loss of national power
United States Cannot Win Without Becoming a Different Kind of Country
Serious program of reforms must be undertaken These reforms might be catalyzed by:
– financial crash– broadly perceived external threat– act of war– other cataclysmic events
Reforms will require leadership very different from any previous White House administrations
THE END