Preliminary review on scientific achievements of the

SCOSTEP VarSITI program (2014-2018)

K. Shiokawa and K. Georgieva

1976-1979: IMS (International Magnetosphere Study)1979-1981: SMY (Solar Maximum Year)1982-1985: MAP (Middle Atmosphere Program) 1990-1997: STEP (Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program)1998-2002: Post-STEP（S-RAMP, PSMOS, EPIC, and ISCS) 2004-2008: CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System）

2009-2013: CAWSES-II (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System-II）2014-2018: VarSITI (Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact)

International interdisciplinary programs in solar-terrestrial physics operated by SCOSTEP

VarSITI Leaflet (distributed in Dec 2015)

VarSITI has 4 scientific projects

Solar Evolution and Extrema (SEE)

• How well do we understand how Sun works?• Can we predict Sun’s activity? Are we entering a grand

“Maunder-type” minimum, or just a secular “Dalton-type” minimum? Input for climate models.

Hotta et al. (Science, 2016): High-resolution modeling of solar magnetic field at high Reynolds numbers (small scale dynamo acts as large diffusivity).

SEE

case High clearly includes the small-scale turbulence

Predictions of sunspot cycle 24SEE

Kakad et al. (SolPhys2017)Shannon Entropy-Based Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

SEE

63±11.3

Iijima et al. (AA2017)Cycle 25 prediction based on axial dipole moment.

Cameron et al. (ApJ2016): Cycle 25 prediction based on axial dipole moment. moderate amplitude,

not much higher than that of the current cycle.

Predictions of sunspot cycle 25

International Study of Earth-Affecting Solar Transients ISEST/MiniMax24

Gopalswamy et al. (GRL, 2014): CME size difference by different background pressure condition in Cycle 23 and 24.

ISEST/Minimax24

Temmer et al. (Sol.Phys, 2017, ISEST special issue): Flare-CME Characteristics from Sun to Earth

ISEST/Minimax24

GCS modeling results using the simultaneous view from three spacecraft (STEREO B left, LASCO middle, and STEREO A right) on 1 October 2011.

(a) Central filament channel as observed in SDO/AIA 304 Å around the main sunspot of NOAA 11305 before the flare-CME on 1 October 2011. (b) NLFF model magnetic field lines outlining the observed filament channel. The color-coded background resembles the SDO/HMI vertical magnetic field, scaled to ±2 kG ±2 kG . (c) Orientation of the coronal magnetic field (orange arrows) in a vertical cut through the model volume above the path outlined as a white solid line in (b). (d) Orientation of the coronal magnetic field as in (c), but with the magnitude of the total electric current density shown as color-coded background.

Left: Interplanetary propagation of the CME under study (red line) tracked using SATPLOT j-maps. Top right: Conversion result from the derived elongation angle using several methods with different assumptions on the CME geometry (FP, HM, SSE – for more details see Section 2.4). Bottom right: DBM graphical output (swe.uni-graz.at) using the parameters derived from the GCS model fit as initial values.

Specification and Prediction of the Coupled Inner-Magnetospheric Environment

(SPeCIMEN)

Baker et al. (Nature, 2014): Discovery of sharp inner boundary for the ultrarelativistic (E>5MeV) electrons in the Earth’s radiation belts.

In a–e the highly energetic electrons measured by REPT sensors throughout the mission never seem to extend inwards of L ≈ 2.8. This forms a particularly clear and sharp boundary for the ultrarelativistic electrons as shown in c–e.

Sep.2012 May 2014

2.0MeV

4.5MeV

5.6MeV

7.2MeV

8.8MeV

6

2

6

26

26

26

2

L

L

L

L

L

SPeCIMEN

SPeCIMEN

Kasahara et al. (Nature, 2018): Arase (ERG) show one-to-one correspondence between ELF/VLF chorus waves and electron fluxes in the loss cone. evidence of pitch-angle scattering to cause pulsating aurora.

Role Of the Sun and the Middle atmosphere/ thermosphere/ionosphere In Climate (ROSMIC)

How well do we understand solar variability effects on the middle and lower atmosphere?

Solar versus anthropogenic Influence on Climate in the Context of Weak Solar Activity

ROSMIC

Gray et al. (Rev. Geophys., 2010)

Andersson et al. (Nature Comm., 2014): First evidence for radiation belt electron precipitation impact on atmospheric ozone in long term.

Polar region

plasma sheet

magnetosphere

middle atmosphere

ionosphere

particle precipitation from the magnetosphere

ratiation belts

troposphere

aurora

Ozone

NOx

ROSMIC

She et al. (AnnGeo, 2015): long-term trend of mesopause temperature based on 25-year Na-lidar measurements.

ROSMIC

Figure 2. Linear temperature trend from the quarter century data set with 11- and 7-parameter analyses, respectively denoted as F-11P(90-14_Avg) in black solid circles and F-7P(90-14_Avg) in black open circles. Shown for comparison are those data published based on an 18-year data set denoted as F-11P(90-07) in red solid squares and F-7P(90-07) in open red squares.

Yigit et al. (JASTP2017, special issue ) review of vertical coupling

VarSITI Leaflet (distributed in Dec 2015)

VarSITI has 4 scientific projects

sola

r to

tal an

d sp

ectr

al irr

adia

nce

Sun

magnetosphere (MHD)inner magnetosphere

ionospherethermosphere

mesospherestratospheretroposphere

heliosphere (MHD)CME prediction

IMF-Bz prediction

flare prediction

sunspot evolution

flar

e U

V/X-ra

y sp

ectr

a

ionizationdynamics

sola

r energ

etic p

article

s (S

EP

)

composition

storm/substorm developmentradiation belt development

coupl

ing

GW

s/tide

s/P

Ws

dynamics

composition dynamics

dynamicspl

asm

a

plas

ma

plasma instability

geomagnetically induced current (GIC)Earth

thermosphericexpansion

dynam

ics

solar dynamo evolution

axial dipole moment

solar cycle variability

CR

, so

lar

and

mag

neto

spheric p

lasm

a

anthropogenic effect

short-term variability

long-term variability

satellite orbit

radio communicationGNSS positioning

climate changeplasma damage to space vehicles and astronauts

plasma waves

Challenging topics during and after VarSITI

composition dynamics climate

CIR

I. Challenging topics for connection from Sun to Earth during and after VarSITI(A) Short-term variabilityFrom sun to earth 1. Evolution of sunspot from solar interior to solar surface 2. Flare/CME prediction at the solar surface 3. Accurate measurements of flare UV spectra to understand ionospheric consequences. 4. Prediction of Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) 5. IMF-Bz prediction/modeling in the CME 6. Speed and dynamic pressure prediction/modeling for the CIR 7. Connection between the outer magnetosphere (MHD) and the inner magnetosphere

(non-MHD) 8. Connection between the magnetosphere and the ionosphere (non-MHD) 9. Connection from the high-latitude energy input to the thermospheric dynamics (and to

the plasma bubble generation) 10. Connection from the high-latitude energy input to the composition change From earth to geospace1. Gravity wave penetration to the thermosphere and its consequences to the

thermospheric dynamics 2. Gravity wave penetration to the thermosphere and its consequences to the ionospheric

disturbance 3. Variability of pre-reversal enhancement and plasma bubble generation 4. GW/Tides/Planetary wave penetration to the thermosphere/ionosphere and its

consequences in the plasmasphere

(B) Long-term variability 1. Solar dynamo evolution to predict variability of the 11-year solar cycle2. Connection mechanisms between the axial dipole moment and solar cycle variability 3. Long-term variability and long-term evolution of solar total and spectral irradiance for

atmospheric consequences4. High-energy plasma effect to the atmospheric variability, i.e., composition change and its

dynamical effect via ozone concentration 5. Solar cycle dependence of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters and their connecting

mechanism 6. AGWs/Tides/planetary wave coupling to cause global circulation and tropospheric

climate change 7. Separation of anthropogenic effect and solar variability effect

II. Importance (effect on human life) 1. Plasma damage to space vehicles and astronauts: SEP, radiation belts, auroral particles 2. Radio communication and GNSS positioning: plasma bubble, auroral plasma, TIDs 3. Geomagnetically induced current: auroral currents, electric supply network, pipelines 4. Satellite orbit: solar UV, auroral plasma 5. Climate change: auroral particles, solar UV radiation, etc

VarSITI (Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact)

2014-2018

We encourage more communication between solar and heliosphere scientists and Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere scientists.

- Campaign data analysis from the Sun to the Earth- Web pages (www.varsiti.org) - Mailing lists (1020 members from 71 countries are registered)- Newsletters- Meetings (financial support is available)

www.varsiti.org

VarSITI web-site http://www.varsiti.org/

57,233 visits from November 5, 2013 to June 30, 2018

monthly visits

Visits of 1-5 July 2018

For the 5-year duration of the VarSITI program

We have organized or supported• 63 meetings or sessions• 16 databases • 1 campaign • 1 interdisciplinary project

VarSITI has (as of 07 July) • 1020 members from 71 countries

Meeting title country Date13-th conference "Plasma Physics in the Solar System" Russia 12-16 February, 2018

Dynamic Sun II : Solar Magnetism from Interior to the Corona Cambodia 12-16 February 2018AGU Chapman Conference, “Particle Dynamics in the Earth's Radiation

Belts” Portugal March 4-9, 2018

The 41st annual Seminar “Physics of the auroral phenomena” Russia 12-16 March 20188th workshop of the VLF/ELF Remote Sensing of Ionospheres and

Magnetospheres (VERSIM) working group. Russia 18-24 March 2018

DKIST Critical Science Plan Workshop 5: Wave generation and propagation UK 9-11 April 2018

4th International ANGWIN workshop: Exploration of High-latitude Upper Atmosphere Wave Dynamics Brazil 24-26 April, 2018

10th workshop on Long-Term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere China May 14-18, 2018tenth Workshop “Solar Influences on the Magnetosphere, Ionosphere

and Atmosphere" Bulgaria 30 May-03 June 2018

The VI International Conference “Atmosphere, Ionosphere, Safety” (AIS-2018) Russia June 03-09, 2018

7th International HEPPA-SOLARIS Workshop USA 11-15 June 20187th IAGA/ICMA/SCOSTEP workshop on Vertical Coupling in the

Atmosphere-Ionosphere System Germany 2-6 July 2018

7th Symposium of the Brazilian Space Geophysics and Aeronomy Society (SBGEA) Brazil 6-10 August 2018

45th European Meeting on Atmospheric Studies by Optical Methods Sweden 27-31 August, 20182018 Annual African Geophysical Society (AGS) Conference on Space

Weather Egypt 24-27 September 2018

International Study of Earth-affecting Solar Transients (ISEST/MiniMax24) Workshop in 2018 Croatia Sep. 24-28, 2018

15th International Symposium on Equatorial Aeronomy (ISEA-15) India 22 – 26 October 2018VarSITI SEE project meeting TBD second half of 2018

List of the 18 meetings supported by SCOSTEP/VarSITI in 2018

Title Host Institution Country

Virtual Laboratory for the comprehensive analysis of Forbush-Effects and

Interplanetary Disturbances (ViLaFEID)IZMIRAN Russia

Solar energetic electrons and radio emission signatures

SRTI-BAS, Bulgaria and NRIAG, Egypt

Bulgaria and Egypt

Database of lidar signals at "Paratunka" station IKIR FEB RAS, Paratunka Russia

“Ionosphere and Magnetic Data - Klyuchi” (IMD-K)

Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics of Siberian

Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (IPGG SB RAS,

Novosibirsk, Russia)

Russia

Database of Interplanetary Small-scale Magnetic Flux Ropes

University of Alabama in Huntsville USA

Magnetic station “Baygazan" database creation

Gorno-Altaysk State University, Altay Republic Russia

List of the 6 datbases supported by SCOSTEP/VarSITI in 2018

A collection of solar-terrestrial databases at VarSITI’s web site

134 databases are collected on the VarSITI web site

VarSITI newsletters

Publish:Articles

Highlights of young scientists

Short news

Meeting schedule

4 issues per yearEditorsKazuo Shiokawa

Katya Georgieva

Newsletter secretary

Mai Asakura

Ayumi Asai

VarSITI Newsletter vol.1-18

Articles: 53 articles from 23 countriesHighlight of young scientists: 40 articles from 20 countriesMeeting reports: 76 articles from 26 countriesShort news: 23 articles from 8 countries

VarSITI-related special issues

• JGR: VarSITI Special Section in JGR-Space Physics • EPS: Global Data Systems for the Study of Solar-Terrestrial

Variability (from SCOSTEP-WDS workshop)• JASTP: ISSI/VarSITI Forum on Solar activity in the following decades • Solar Phys.: Earth-affecting solar transients • JASTP: long-term changes and trends in the upper atmosphere • JASTP: Special issue of the VarSITI-2016 symposium • JASTP: Special issue of the VarSITI-2017 symposium

• EPS: 12th international conference on substorms (ICS-12) • JASTP: special issue of vertical coupling workshop (Antalya

workshop) • JGR: Geospace system responses to the St. Patrick’s Day storms in

2013 and 2015 (CEDAR based)• AnnGeo: International Symposium of Equatorial Aeronomy (ISEA-

14)

Sept 2017： Ota, Nigeria, 38 students from 7 African

countries

VarSITI-related Capacity Building Activities in 2017

July 2017: Irkutsk, Russia, 35 students from 5 countries

March 2018： Bandung, Indonesia, 40 students

from 7 Asian countries.

VarSITI Leaflet (distributed in Dec 2015)

VarSITI has 4 scientific projects

A great community effort for study and better understanding of the solar-terrestrial processes!

sola

r to

tal an

d sp

ectr

al irr

adia

nce

Sun

magnetosphere (MHD)inner magnetosphere

ionospherethermosphere

mesospherestratospheretroposphere

heliosphere (MHD)CME prediction

IMF-Bz prediction

flare prediction

sunspot evolution

flar

e U

V/X-ra

y sp

ectr

a

ionizationdynamics

sola

r energ

etic p

article

s (S

EP

)

composition

storm/substorm developmentradiation belt development

coupl

ing

GW

s/tide

s/P

Ws

dynamics

composition dynamics

dynamicspl

asm

a

plas

ma

plasma instability

geomagnetically induced current (GIC)Earth

thermosphericexpansion

dynam

ics

solar dynamo evolution

axial dipole moment

solar cycle variability

CR

, so

lar

and

mag

neto

spheric

plas

ma

anthropogenic effect

short-term variability

long-term variability

satellite orbit

radio communicationGNSS positioning

climate changeplasma damage to space vehicles and astronauts

plasma waves

Challenging topics during and after VarSITI

composition dynamics climate

CIR

I. Challenging topics for connection from Sun to Earth during and after VarSITI(A) Short-term variabilityFrom sun to earth 1. Evolution of sunspot from solar interior to solar surface 2. Flare/CME prediction at the solar surface 3. Accurate measurements of flare UV spectra to understand ionospheric consequences. 4. Prediction of Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) 5. IMF-Bz prediction/modeling in the CME 6. Speed and dynamic pressure prediction/modeling for the CIR 7. Connection between the outer magnetosphere (MHD) and the inner magnetosphere

(non-MHD) 8. Connection between the magnetosphere and the ionosphere (non-MHD) 9. Connection from the high-latitude energy input to the thermospheric dynamics (and to

the plasma bubble generation) 10. Connection from the high-latitude energy input to the composition change From earth to geospace1. Gravity wave penetration to the thermosphere and its consequences to the

thermospheric dynamics 2. Gravity wave penetration to the thermosphere and its consequences to the ionospheric

disturbance 3. Variability of pre-reversal enhancement and plasma bubble generation 4. GW/Tides/Planetary wave penetration to the thermosphere/ionosphere and its

consequences in the plasmasphere

(B) Long-term variability 1. Solar dynamo evolution to predict variability of the 11-year solar cycle2. Connection mechanisms between the axial dipole moment and solar cycle variability 3. Long-term variability and long-term evolution of solar total and spectral irradiance for

atmospheric consequences4. High-energy plasma effect to the atmospheric variability, i.e., composition change and its

dynamical effect via ozone concentration 5. Solar cycle dependence of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters and their connecting

mechanism 6. AGWs/Tides/planetary wave coupling to cause global circulation and tropospheric

climate change 7. Separation of anthropogenic effect and solar variability effect

II. Importance (effect on human life) 1. Plasma damage to space vehicles and astronauts: SEP, radiation belts, auroral particles 2. Radio communication and GNSS positioning: plasma bubble, auroral plasma, TIDs 3. Geomagnetically induced current: auroral currents, electric supply network, pipelines 4. Satellite orbit: solar UV, auroral plasma 5. Climate change: auroral particles, solar UV radiation, etc

VarSITI Registration sheet Date: Meeting name:

Please sign your name and e-mail address to register into the VarSITI mailing list

first name last name e-mail address country interest of projects (choose as many as you like)

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

SEE ISEST/Minimax SPeCIMEN ROSMIC ALL

VarSITI Registration Sheet for mailing list

ISEST Topical Collection• A Topical Collection on “Earth-affecting

Solar Transients” is being published in Solar Physics Journal

• Edited by Jie Zhang, Xochitl Blanco-Cano, Nariaki Nitta, Nandita Srivastva

• 35 articles are published

SCOSTEPScientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics

SCOSTEP is a Scientific Committee under ICSU (International Council for Science). Its principal tasks are: •to promote international interdisciplinary programs in solar-terrestrial physics, and to organize and coordinate such programs of interest to, and approved by, at least two of the following bodies: IAU, IUGG, IUPAP, URSI, and COSPAR. Each specific program is normally of finite duration; •to define the data relating to these programs that should be exchanged through the World Data Centers; •to provide such advice as may be required by the ICSU bodies and World Data Centers concerned with these programs; •to work with other ICSU bodies in the coordination of symposia in solar-terrestrial physics, especially on topics related to SCOSTEP’s programs.

Gopalswamy et al. (APJ, 2016): unusual polar B filed in cycle 25 (north B is delayed to develop)

SEE

16 topical meetings and sessions supported by

VarSITI in 2016

+ one canceled (COSPAR in Istanbul)

MEETINGS

SEE/ISSI forum: Solar activity in the following decades, March 2016

We expect that the next two cycles will not be high, but not a beginning of a grand Maunder type minimum. It is most likely that cycle 25 will be of the same height as cycle 24, and the next one may be a bit lower. There is some probability of a Dalton type minimum.

Special issue of JASTP on Future solar activity

Long-Term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere

6th IAGA/ICMA/SCOSTEP Workshop on Vertical Coupling in the Atmosphere-Ionosphere System

25-29 July, 2016, Taipei, Taiwan

A special issue of the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

Fennel et al. (GRL, 2015): Van Allen Probes show that the inner radiation zone contains no MeV electrons:

SPeCIMEN

L* versus time spectrograms of MagEIS electron fluxes from five selected energies taken by Van Allen Probe A during 24 February to 31 March 2013.

CAMPAIGNS• ISEST/MiniMax24

Goals and objectives: Understand the propagation of solar transients through the space between the Sun and the Earth, and develop space weather prediction capabilityThe key question: How do coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) propagate and evolve, drive shocks and accelerate energetic particles in the heliosphere?Approach: coordinated investigation of selected Earth-affecting solar transient events including CMEs, CIRs, flares, and energetic particle eventsPeriod: ongoing for the whole duration of the VarSITIprogram

CAMPAIGNSFirst campaign observations for Arase and ground-based observations• Goals and objectives: Study of acceleration and loss of

particles in the inner magnetosphere and their wave-particle interactions

• Approach: Coordinated investigations of the inner magnetosphere by the Arase and other inner-magnetospheric satellites with ground-based network instruments

• Period: March 21-April 2017