preliminary c13 - exploratory analysis todd dvorak 10/07/05

Preliminary C13 - Exploratory Analysis

Todd Dvorak

10/07/05

C13 Exploratory Analysis

• Analysis Outline:– Cylinder Combination Evaluation– Operational Parameter Study– Weighting factors for AWD Parameter

• Postponed - until Lab F data is available


• Analysis Outline:– Cylinder Combination Evaluation– Operational Parameter Study


• Cylinder Combination Evaluation– Examined All Possible Combinations– Selected the best - common cylinder group

configuration (Cylinders 2346) among all critical wear/deposit parameters

• No discrimination between reference oils for ALSCI or AWD for cylinder groups 123456 or 2346.

WD by Cylinder & Group Average

WD Mean Confidence Interval Plot(Excludes Lab H & XO Data)

Mean ±0.95 Conf. Interval

WD

1

WD

2

WD

3

WD

4

WD

5

WD

6

AW

D

AW

D_2

346

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

WD Parameter Analysis by Group Avg.

Parameter Estimates (C13_DATA_100405.sta)Sigma-restricted parameterization

EffectLevel ofEffect

ColumnComment(B/Z/P)

AWD_2346Param.

AWD_2346Std.Err

AWD_2346t

AWD_2346p

InterceptLTMSLABLTMSLABLTMSLABLTMSLABINDINDINDINDINDINDINDIND

1 420.13917.5901555.353220.000000A 2 -9.997412.76695-0.783070.440401G 3 17.118412.347331.386410.176966F 4 32.075915.725872.039690.051276D 5 -47.026617.16759-2.739270.010774

OILA 6 PooledOILD 7 PooledPC10E8 PooledPC10G9 PooledPC10B10 PooledPC10D11 PooledPC10F12 PooledPC10A13 Pooled




AWDParam.

AWDStd.Err

AWDt

AWDp


1 435.81568.23924752.895080.00A 2 PooledG 3 PooledF 4 PooledD 5 Pooled

OILA 6 PooledOILD 7 Pooled

PC10E 8 PooledPC10G 9 PooledPC10B 10 PooledPC10D 11 PooledPC10F 12 PooledPC10A 13 Pooled

All Cylinder Data Cylinders 2346

• Significance of Labs & Oils for Cylinder Averages 123456 & 2346

ATGC by Cylinder & Group Avg.

TGC Mean Confidence Interval Plot(Excludes Lab H & XO Data)


TG

C1

TG

C2

TG

C3

TG

C4

TG

C5

TG

C6

ATG

C

ATG

C_2

346

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

ATGC Parameter Analysis


All Cylinder Data Cylinders 2346Parameter Estimates (C13_DATA_100405.sta)Sigma-restricted parameterization


ColumnATGCParam.

ATGCStd.Err

ATGCt

ATGCp


1 45.981791.18010138.964270.000000A 2 -6.011671.927522-3.118860.005652G 3 6.350921.9740743.217170.004536F 4 -0.837162.429024-0.344650.734145D 5 -2.254422.641679-0.853400.404067

OILA 6 7.013593.6305001.931850.068430OILD 7 -5.510023.159047-1.744200.097280

PC10E 8 -2.150732.239733-0.960260.348985PC10G 9 -8.297203.279735-2.529840.020413PC10B 10 -0.163772.215161-0.073930.941836PC10D 11 -2.514953.193796-0.787450.440732PC10F 12 5.871493.0832181.904340.072121PC10A 13 -2.404733.223977-0.745890.464863



ColumnATGC_2346Param.

ATGC_2346Std.Err

ATGC_2346t

ATGC_2346p


1 44.527771.07027041.604240.000000A 2 -5.555321.748129-3.177860.004954G 3 7.367811.7903474.115290.000589F 4 0.029422.2029560.013360.989483D 5 -2.845272.395819-1.187600.249627

OILA 6 6.909743.2926112.098560.049455OILD 7 -6.407782.865035-2.236540.037504PC10E 8 -1.668642.031282-0.821470.421565PC10G9 -7.978692.974492-2.682370.014739PC10B10 -0.524112.008997-0.260880.796990PC10D11 -2.646532.896551-0.913680.372333PC10F12 6.557972.7962642.345260.030024PC10A13 -1.203072.923923-0.411460.685342

ATGC Parameter Analysis

All

Cyl

inde

r D

ata

Cyl

inde

rs 2

346

Bonferroni test; variable ATGC_2346 (C13_DATA_100405.sta)Probabilities for Post Hoc TestsError: Between MS = 24.140, df = 19.000

Cell No.IND{1}

52.344{2}

43.042{3}

43.635{4}

34.083{5}

42.804{6}

38.188{7}

54.146{8}

45.167{9}

55.188123456789

OILA 1.0001.0000.0230.9220.1871.0001.0001.000OILD1.000 1.0001.0001.0001.0000.4411.0000.502PC10E1.0001.000 0.4591.0001.0000.2511.0000.346PC10G0.0231.0000.459 0.6721.0000.0030.4460.006PC10B0.9221.0001.0000.672 1.0000.1221.0000.193PC10D0.1871.0001.0001.0001.000 0.0291.0000.045PC10F1.0000.4410.2510.0030.1220.029 1.0001.000PC10A1.0001.0001.0000.4461.0001.0001.000 1.000PC10C1.0000.5020.3460.0060.1930.0451.0001.000

Bonferroni test; variable ATGC (C13_DATA_100405.sta)Probabilities for Post Hoc TestsError: Between MS = 29.348, df = 19.000

Cell No.IND{1}

53.165{2}

44.427{3}

44.263{4}

35.847{5}

44.637{6}

39.180{7}

54.083{8}

45.860{9}

56.895123456789


• Multiple Comparisons* of Oils for Cylinder Averages 123456 & 2346

*Note: MC based on actual means

ATLC by Cylinder & Group Avg.

TLC Mean Confidence Interval Plot(Excludes Lab H & XO Data)


TLC

1

TLC

2

TLC

3

TLC

4

TLC

5

TLC

6

ATLC

ATLC

_234

6

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

ATLC Parameter Analysis





ColumnATLCParam.

ATLCStd.Err

ATLCt

ATLCp


1 28.741110.91547031.394930.000000A 2 -3.058891.495285-2.045690.054884G 3 -2.401071.531398-1.567900.133409F 4 -1.082611.884328-0.574540.572346D 5 -1.483812.049296-0.724060.477852

OILA 6 7.673872.8163792.724730.013451OILD 7 -3.266192.450646-1.332790.198365

PC10E 8 -3.250081.737484-1.870570.076890PC10G 9 0.010992.5442710.004320.996598PC10B 10 -1.649301.718422-0.959770.349224PC10D 11 -2.757642.477604-1.113030.279580PC10F 12 10.199242.3918224.264210.000419PC10A 13 -6.941612.501017-2.775520.012049



ColumnATLC_2346Param.

ATLC_2346Std.Err

ATLC_2346t

ATLC_2346p


1 29.511100.97425830.290860.000000A 2 -2.173311.591307-1.365740.187972G 3 -2.935431.629738-1.801170.087570F 4 -2.426532.005332-1.210040.241103D 5 -3.318042.180894-1.521410.144625

OILA 6 7.324522.9972362.443760.024466OILD 7 -2.974472.608018-1.140510.268247PC10E 8 -3.483481.849059-1.883920.074972PC10G 9 -0.840092.707655-0.310260.759737PC10B 10 -1.485551.828773-0.812320.426669PC10D 11 -3.211722.636706-1.218080.238105PC10F 12 11.274462.5454164.429320.000288PC10A 13 -7.586052.661623-2.850160.010239

ATLC Parameter Analysis

All

Cyl

inde

r D

ata

Cyl

inde

rs 2

346

Bonferroni test; variable ATLC_2346 (C13_DATA_100405.sta)Probabilities for Post Hoc TestsError: Between MS = 20.003, df = 19.000

Cell No.IND{1}

34.281{2}

23.771{3}

25.729{4}

30.458{5}

27.241{6}

24.042{7}

38.104{8}

23.458{9}

27.813123456789


Bonferroni test; variable ATLC (C13_DATA_100405.sta)Probabilities for Post Hoc TestsError: Between MS = 17.662, df = 19.000

Cell No.IND{1}

33.685{2}

23.513{3}

24.828{4}

29.913{5}

26.443{6}

23.583{7}

36.320{8}

23.180{9}

26.980123456789


• Multiple Comparisons of Cylinder Averages 123456 & 2346

TGF by Cylinder & Group Avg.

TGF Mean Confidence Interval Plot(Excludes Lab H & XO Data)


TG

F1

TG

F2

TG

F3

TG

F4

TG

F5

TG

F6

TG

FAV

G

TG

FAV

G_2

346

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

TGF Parameter Analysis





ColumnTGFAVG_2346Param.

TGFAVG_2346Std.Err

TGFAVG_2346t

TGFAVG_2346p


1 44.83131.38109732.460650.000000A 2 -8.1026 2.255819-3.591870.001944G 3 5.7875 2.3102992.505090.021508F 4 6.6627 2.8427372.343760.030117D 5 -1.3005 3.091611-0.420650.678731

OILA 6 9.7013 4.2488492.283270.034101OILD 7 -11.57723.697097-3.131430.005496PC10E8 -1.7872 2.621205-0.681820.503579PC10G9 -8.9312 3.838341-2.326850.031185PC10B10 -1.2737 2.592448-0.491320.628830PC10D11 1.0995 3.7377650.294170.771816PC10F12 6.8446 3.6083531.896870.073153PC10A13 -2.3946 3.773087-0.634650.533222




TGFAVGParam.

TGFAVGStd.Err

TGFAVGt

TGFAVGp


1 45.211111.55344529.103770.000000A 2 -6.655562.612962-2.547130.016872G 3 6.688892.5270792.646890.013390F 4 6.388893.2185511.985020.057388D 5 -3.461113.513622-0.985060.333343

OILA 6 PooledOILD 7 PooledPC10E 8 PooledPC10G9 PooledPC10B10 PooledPC10D11 PooledPC10F12 PooledPC10A13 Pooled

TGF Parameter Analysis

Cyl

inde

rs 2

346

Bonferroni test; variable TGFAVG_2346 (C13_DATA_100405.sta)Probabilities for Post Hoc TestsError: Between MS = 40.197, df = 19.000

Cell No.IND{1}

53.375{2}

39.333{3}

42.875{4}

31.750{5}

42.214{6}

42.750{7}

52.833{8}

42.917{9}

59.375123456789


• Multiple Comparison of Oils for Cylinder Average 2346

ATLHC by Cylinder & Group Avg.

TLHC Mean Confidence Interval Plot(Excludes Lab H & XO Data)


TLH

C1

TLH

C2

TLH

C3

TLH

C4

TLH

C5

TLH

C6

ATLH

C

ATLH

C_2

346

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

ATLHC Parameter Analysis





ColumnATLHCParam.

ATLHCStd.Err

ATLHCt

ATLHCp


1 10.385300.66405315.639260.000000A 2 -0.387401.084633-0.357170.724902G 3 -1.640041.110828-1.476410.156217F 4 -3.286311.366833-2.404320.026565D 5 -0.629801.486496-0.423680.676558

OILA 6 5.628412.0429132.755090.012595OILD 7 -2.196511.777623-1.235640.231651

PC10E 8 -2.819031.260317-2.236760.037488PC10G 9 -1.694081.845535-0.917940.370158PC10B 10 -1.525701.246490-1.224000.235914PC10D 11 -5.031601.797176-2.799730.011430PC10F 12 12.837191.7349537.399150.000001PC10A 13 -6.276541.814160-3.459750.002624



ColumnATLHC_2346Param.

ATLHC_2346Std.Err

ATLHC_2346t

ATLHC_2346p


1 11.456040.79190914.466360.000000A 2 -0.656551.293466-0.507590.617583G 3 -1.714261.324705-1.294070.211151F 4 -4.955191.630000-3.040000.006737D 5 -1.881041.772702-1.061110.301941

OILA 6 5.354372.4362522.197790.040561OILD 7 -1.828132.119882-0.862370.399236PC10E8 -3.124411.502975-2.078810.051423PC10G9 -2.345852.200871-1.065880.299838PC10B10 -1.522101.486486-1.023960.318718PC10D11 -4.783272.143201-2.231840.037864PC10F12 13.405652.0689976.479300.000003PC10A13 -6.659952.163454-3.078390.006186

ATLHC Parameter Analysis

All

Cyl

inde

r D

ata

Cyl

inde

rs 2

346

Bonferroni test; variable ATLHC_2346 (C13_DATA_100405.sta)Probabilities for Post Hoc TestsError: Between MS = 13.216, df = 19.000

Cell No.IND{1}

15.625{2}

6.8333{3}

8.2500{4}

11.333{5}

9.5714{6}

4.5833{7}

23.500{8}

6.6667{9}

9.6250123456789


Bonferroni test; variable ATLHC (C13_DATA_100405.sta)Probabilities for Post Hoc TestsError: Between MS = 9.2928, df = 19.000

Cell No.IND{1}

15.000{2}

6.0000{3}

7.3333{4}

10.333{5}

8.7143{6}

4.0000{7}

22.000{8}

5.3333{9}

9.0000123456789


•Statistical differences between Oils for Cylinder Averages 123456 & 2346

ALSCI by Cylinder & Group Avg.

LSCI Mean Confidence Interval Plot(Excludes Lab H & XO Data)


LSC

IA1

LSC

IA2

LSC

IA3

LSC

IA4

LSC

IA5

LSC

IA6

ALS

CI

ALS

CI_

2346

0.024

0.026

0.028

0.030

0.032

0.034

0.036

0.038

0.040

0.042

0.044

ALSCI Parameter Analysis

• Significance of labs for Cylinder Averages 123456 & 2346





ALSCIParam.

ALSCIStd.Err

ALSCIt

ALSCIp


1 0.0356140.00158022.536900.000000A 2 -0.0063920.002658-2.404820.023306G 3 0.0005860.0025710.227780.821534F 4 -0.0102140.003274-3.119740.004275D 5 0.0068860.0035741.926410.064641





ALSCI_2346Param.

ALSCI_2346Std.Err

ALSCI_2346t

ALSCI_2346p


1 0.0345860.00156322.126680.000000A 2 -0.0052810.002629-2.008430.054696G 3 0.0001890.0025430.074280.941332F 4 -0.0094860.003239-2.929130.006831D 5 0.0066640.0035351.884880.070253



• Analysis Outline:– Cylinder Combination Evaluation– Operational Parameter Study

Operational Variables Affecting AWDPLS Operational Parameter Summary - C13 AWD Parameter

(4 Components)

-0.350

-0.300

-0.250

-0.200

-0.150

-0.100

-0.050

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.300

0.350

BB

AB

BS

Coo

loS

Cra

nkpA

Cra

nkpS

Exh

bpS

Exh

TA

Exh

TS

Fue

lfSF

ueltS

Hum

idA

Hum

idS

Inta

pAIn

tapS

Inta

tSIn

tman

pSIn

tman

TS

Boo

stdp

AB

oost

dpS

OilG

lrypA

OilG

lrypS

OilG

lryT

SO

SA

OS

SR

PM

SLO

AD

ALO

AD

SK

WA

KW

SLA

B_A

LAB

_BLA

B_D

LAB

_FLA

B_G

"PC

10A

""P

C10

B"

"PC

10C

""P

C10

D"

"PC

10E

""P

C10

F"

"PC

10G

"T

EC

H_A

TE

CH

_BG

RP

IG

RP

IIG

RP

III

Variable

Sca

led

Co

ef

Operational Parameter Study

• AWD (C123456) Regression Analysis– Oil Gallery Pressure is statistically significant




AWDParam.

AWDStd.Err

AWDt

AWDp

InterceptLTMSLABLTMSLABLTMSLABLTMSLABINDINDINDINDINDINDCooloSCrankpSOilGlrypA

1 1604.432235.5996.810 0.000A 2 -54.57514.434-3.781 0.001G 3 39.62211.3813.481 0.003F 4 93.37423.0844.045 0.001D 5 -18.78314.641-1.283 0.217

PC10E 6 PooledPC10G 7 PooledPC10B 8 PooledPC10D 9 PooledPC10F 10 PooledPC10A 11 Pooled

12 Pooled13 Pooled14 -3.405 0.686 -4.964 0.000

AWD by Oil Gallery Pres. & Test Lab AWD by Oil Gallery Pressure & Test Lab

OilGlrypA

AW

D LTMSLAB: A

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

580

LTMSLAB: G

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

LTMSLAB: F

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

LTMSLAB: H (Excluded)

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

580

LTMSLAB: D

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

LTMSLAB: B

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

Oil Gallery Pressure by Test LabLAB A OIL GLRY PRES = 30000*3.585*normal(x, 333.0994, 9.8972)

(Includes all Lab A Test Key Runs w/Oil Gallery Pressure Data)

311

318

326

333

340

347

354

361

369

376

383

LAB A OIL GLRY PRES

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

No of

obs

30

0

420

LAB B OIL GLRY PRES = 19996*1.917*normal(x, 318.7434, 6.6501)(Includes all Lab B Test Key Runs w/Oil Gallery Pressure Data)

307

311

315

318

322

326

330

334

338

341

345

LAB B OIL GLRY PRES

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

No of

obs

30

0

420

LAB D OIL GLRY PRES = 20000*2.755*normal(x, 350.6863, 7.0043)(Includes all Lab D Test Key Runs w/Oil Gallery Pressure Data)

334

340

345

351

356

362

367

373

378

384

389

LAB D OIL GLRY PRES

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

No of

obs

30

0

420

LAB F OIL GLRY PRES = 15000*3.4*normal(x, 368.4002, 11.1758)(Includes all Lab F Test Key Runs w/Oil Gallery Pressure Data)

353

363

373

384

394

404

414

LAB F OIL GLRY PRES

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

No of

obs

30

0

420

LAB G OIL GLRY PRES = 34998*3.755*normal(x, 345.5459, 13.2715)(Includes all Lab G Test Key Runs w/Oil Gallery Pressure Data)

319

330

341

353

364

375

386

LAB G OIL GLRY PRES

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

No of

obs

30

0

420

Lab D

Lab A

Lab G

Lab B

Lab F

preliminary c13 - exploratory analysis todd dvorak 10/07/05

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