predictive analytics software: what statistics can do for you brett deneckere dr. kimberly dodson...
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Predictive Analytics Software: What Statistics Can Do for You
Brett DeneckereDr. Kimberly Dodson
April 26, 2011A “Living Legend” Production
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Why Do We Use Statistics In Research?
• To understand the professional literature,
• To understand the rational underlying research in the behavioral sciences, and
• To conduct behavioral science research:– Explaining, predicting, and controlling social behavior.– Tentative conclusions about the existence and strength of
social relationships.
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What Are Statistics?
• The recording, organizing, analyzing, and reporting of quantitative information;
• A collection of numerical data that measure something; and
• Numerical tools used by researchers to help them describe and explain phenomena.
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Descriptive Statistics
• Descriptive statistics show the relationship between variables.
• They are used to describe and summarize a particular data set.
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Creating a Bar Graph
How do you create a graph? graph
Well Doc, it’s actually not that hard. Let me
show you!
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Select “Graphs” from the Menu
Select “Legacy Dialogs”
Select the “Bar Chart” Option
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Select the “Simple” option
Click “Define”
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Select a variable from the list.
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Your selected variable appears here
Click OK and…
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SHAZAM! Bar Graph
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Testing Relationships
Well Doc, that would depend on the level of measurement of
your variables!
What analysis would you use to find out if
two variables are related? graph
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Variables• Variable type is important to determine the level of
measurement and the techniques available to analyze data.– Continuous• Can assume an infinite number of values– Examples: time, age, length
– Discrete• Can assume only a finite number of whole unit values– Examples: sex, political affiliation, number of children in a
family
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Levels Of Measurement• Nominal– Variables can be placed in mutually exclusive,
exhaustive categories, but can’t be ordered any further. • Languages: English, Spanish, Chinese, Klingon
• Ordinal– Variables can be categorized as well as ranked
according to the degree to which a certain attribute is present• I love my mother: Strongly Agree, Agree, Neutral,
Disagree, Strongly Disagree
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Levels Of Measurement
• Interval– A scale with an arbitrary zero point, but equal
distance (intervals) between any two adjacent units.• Temperature in Celsius: 1°-100°
• Ratio– Contains all the properties of the first three levels,
but with an inclusion of an absolute zero point.• How much money is in your pocket: $4, $12, $20,
$7,596
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Can the data be ordered?
Is there a true zero?
Ratio
Are there equal intervals?
Interval
Ordinal
Nominal
YES
YES
YES
NO
NO
NO
Process for determining level of measurementAdapted from: Walker, J. (1999). Statistics in Criminal Justice. Gaithersburg, Maryland: Aspen.
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Testing Relationships
Let’s run a simple crosstabs to answer
that question!graph
What if we wanted to examine the
relationship between gender
and tobacco use ?
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Select “Analyze” from
the MenuSelect
“Descriptive Statistics”
Select the “Crosstabs” Option
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Select the Variables you
want to Examine
Your Variables will Appear Here
Click “OK”
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Hit “Continue” and…
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Boom Boom Pow! A Crosstabulation
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Crosstabs Results
• The results indicate that males (54%) are more likely than females (32%) to use tobacco.
• Cramer’s V tells us the strength and direction of the relationship between two nominal level variables.
• There is a weak positive relationship between gender and tobacco use with males reporting more use than females.
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Testing RelationshipsLet’s run a simple
bivariate correlation to answer that
question!
graph
What if we wanted to know if gender is related to binge
drinking?
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Bivariate Correlation
• Bivariate correlation is a statistical technique that gives us the strength and direction of a relationship between two variables.
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Select “Analyze” from the menu
Select the “Correlate” option
Select the “Bivariate” option
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Select your variables
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Both of your variables will appear here
Click “OK” and…
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WHOOPAH!A Bivariate Correlation
Chart
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Bivariate Correlation Results
• There is a weak positive relationship between gender and binge drinking (r = .26, p = .01).
• In other words, males are more likely to binge drink than females.
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Conclusions
Statistics are powerful!
Great Scott!
This is Heavy!