prediction markets and artificial intelligence in concept...
TRANSCRIPT
Prediction Markets and Artificial Intelligence in Concept Testing:
Quester: QUANT + QUAL in a single hybrid design, leveraging AI technology
Intengo: Prediction markets to test concepts - FAST
Partnering to break through the “not sures” and “idks” for quantitative clarity and real qualitative insight
HOW WE LOOK AT THINGS
CRAB RANGOON PIZZA
CRAB RANGOONCrab Rangoon base, surimi, green onion, asiago and mozzarella topped with crispy wontons and a sweet chili lattice
10” - $13.9916” - $20.99
MAC AND CHEESE PIZZA
MAC AND CHEESEBig D’s mac and cheese, mozzarella, cheddar and Parmesan topped with toasted Parmesan breadcrumbs
10” - $13.9916” - $20.99
Vegetarian
FONGOLIAN PIZZA
FONGOLIAN BEEFMongolian sauce, sliced beef, roasted red pepper, green pepper and sautéed green onions tossed stir-fry style with mozzarella.
10” - $13.9916” - $20.99
Gluten-free
A DIFFERENT QUESTION ABOUT THE PIZZAS
CRAB RANGOONCrab Rangoon base, surimi, green onion, asiago and mozzarella topped with crispy wontons and a sweet chili lattice
10” - $13.9916” - $20.99
MAC AND CHEESEBig D’s mac and cheese, mozzarella, cheddar and Parmesan topped with toasted Parmesan breadcrumbs
10” - $13.99 Vegetarian16” - $20.99
FONGOLIAN BEEFMongolian sauce, sliced beef, roasted red pepper, green pepper and sautéed green onions tossed stir-fry style with mozzarella.
10” - $13.99 Gluten-free16” - $20.99
SOMETIMES RESEARCH FEELS LIKE TALKING TO A TEENAGER
WHAT TO DO? ENGAGE THEM A DIFFERENT WAY
Skinin theGame
WHAT IS A PREDICTION MARKET?
is a collection of people speculating on
a variety of events — exchange
averages, election results, commodity prices, quarterly sales results or even
such things as gross movie receipts.
Participants identify which concept will best
answer the
BUSINESS QUESTION for the
TARGET AUDIENCE
in an investment game
Patented process uses the collective wisdom of crowds
* Source: Investopedia
Because they represent a wide variety
of thoughts and opinions — much like
the markets as a whole — prediction markets have proven to be an effective prognostic tool.
As a result of their visionary value, prediction markets (sometimes referred
to as virtual markets) have been utilized
by a number of large companies — like Google, for example.*
A PREDICTION MARKET
“Which product claim is most likely to influence (the target audience) to purchase the product?”
“Target consumers are road warriors – people who are always on the
go.”
THE PARTICIPANT EXPERIENCE
FRAME THECHALLENGE
BUILD A PORTFOLIO
ADD CONTEXT
The Investment Game Follow-up QuestionsScreening & Background
Participants can win money for correct predictions
Gamification/opportunity for correct predictions = participant engagement
Open ends/follow-up probes delivered by Quester moderator
collect rationale for preferences and ideas for
concept optimization
Customized screener questions ensure quality participants
Background info helps participants frame the exercise/target audience
Review the challenge framework and information
on the target audience
“Invest” in the concept(s) they believe best answer
the business question
Review concepts one at a time and build a
portfolio — concepts are the “stocks”
Explain in their own words why a concept will/won’t
be successful
INVEST INCONCEPTS
HOW DO YOU GET EVEN MORE INSIGHT?
ArtificialIntelligence
QUALITATIVE CONVERSATIONS FOCUS ON:
QUESTER’S QUALITATIVE CONVERSATIONS
1X1 ONLINECONVERSATIONS
Open ends with follow-up probes prompt participants to provide rationale for their predictions
SOFTWARE MODERATOR
The Quester moderator backed by artificial intelligence conducts interviews; qualitative data is
analyzed by Questerlinguistic analysts
Predicted success/failure, uniqueness, fit with the brand
Drivers and/or barriers
Situations and occasions of use
Optimization and enhancement opportunities
QUESTER’S AI MODERATOR – HOW IT WORKS
WWW.QUESTER.COM/HOWITWORKS
(LINK TO VIDEO)
Probed OE: Help me understand why this creative concept will be least effective at influencing the most sales of the products. Please be as detailed as possible
RESEARCH ON RESEARCH
16WITH PROBING
THE INITIAL RESPONSE:
Tells us why the concept is not working, BUTis solely focused on freshness
MISSES KEY DRIVERS –WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THEY ARE
I don’t think it is necessarily a bad
concept, it just doesn’t seem to speak for all
that the company stands for … “
“AVERAGE WORD COUNT
NO PROBING
RESEARCH ON RESEARCH
“… Freshness yes, but taste and variety and the pride of those fortunate enough to produce these wonderful products. It would be nice to combine this concept with the various faces in the other scheme showing all kinds of people enjoying the fresh treats. Besides emphasizing fresh, show that all kinds of people enjoying the product.“
31
AVERAGE WORD COUNT
WITH PROBING
WITH PROBING
WE LEARN …It is important to portray the core company values – great tasting products people enjoy and pride in making the products
This may be a very
simple tweak –
include more visuals
of people consuming
and enjoying the
company’s products
Probed OE: Help me understand why this creative concept will be least effective at influencing the most sales of the products. Please be as detailed as possible
© C opyright 2017 Q uester | 16
THEMES FROM ORIGINAL RESPONSES THEMES FROM PROBED RESPONSES: Deeper Understanding
46% Doesn’t say enough
25% Dull – nothing grabs attention
16% Not believable
11%Great taste-enjoymentlost
16%Show morepeople enjoying
the products
10% Freshness is too forced
6%Show more of employees taking pride in their work
13%Freshness overused-tune it out
9% Mass produced –long shelf life
RESEARCH ON RESEARCH
Probed OE: Help me understand why this creative concept will be least effective at influencing the most sales of the products. Please be as detailed as possible
ABOUT THE METHODOLOGIES – SAMPLE DELIVERABLES
QUALITATIVE STATEMENT REACTION
“Eliminates” is helpful but “organic and wildly grown” is potentially polarizing
“ELIMINATES BAD BREATH”
“WILDLY GROWN”
BLUE: Primarily positive reaction
ORANGE: Mixed reactionRED: Primarily negative reaction
41% ORGANIC & 10% WILDLY GROWNConveys to consumers product is natural (23%) with no chemicals (8%)
or other artificial ingredients (3%)
13% SAFE & HEALTHY TO USEThe idea of no chemicals or artificial ingredients leads them to believe it’ll
be safe or even healthier
8% UNSURE ABOUT ORGANIC & 6% UNSURE ABOUT WILDLY GROWNWildly grown is vague/confusing – can
be seen as marketing “hype” or they feel it will make the product expensive;
some question the effectiveness or taste based on negative experiences with “natural” products
23% BAD BREATH & 18% NOT COVER UPEliminating the bad breath rather than covering it up helps provide the reason to believe why it will provide long-lasting fresh breath
(7%) rather than just “a couple of minutes” like mints; leads them to believe it’ll treat or solve the problem
Made with 100% organic and wildly grown ingredients that eliminate bad breath, compared to gum and mints that just temporarily cover it up.
NEW PRODUCT CONCEPTS
BRANDING PLATFORMS
NAMES
CLAIMS/TAGLINES
IDENTIFIES WHICH CONCEPT(S) ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO: BE PURCHASED/INFLUENCE, ETC.
COLLECTS RATIONALE FOR CHOICES IN
CONSUMERS’ OWN LANGUAGE
PACKAGING DESIGNS
MARKETING MESSAGES (ads, product descriptions,
positioning statements, signage)
IDENTIFYING OPTIMAL CONSUMER SEGMENTS
A HYBRID DESIGN IDEAL FOR SCREENING AND TESTING
ABOUT THE METHODOLOGIES
PATRICK ARMINIO Vice President Client Services
FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:
SANDY MCCRAYInsights Curator303-895-5075