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Predicting the distribution of cold-water corals & protections to date
Jeff ArdronDirector High SeasMarine Conservation Biology Institute
Alex Rogers Andrew DaviesJohn Guinotte
Derek Tittensor
The importance of the Consultative Process in light of previous topics undertaken, and its important contribution to the oceans agendaWednesday, 17 June 2009UN Headquarters, New York City
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Outline
1. Background: Seamount coral habitat as an example of a Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem (VME)
2. Results: Predicting the distribution of cold-water corals and protections to date
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UN Resolution 61/105
80. Calls upon States to take action immediately [...] to sustainably manage fish stocks and protect vulnerable marine ecosystems, including seamounts, hydrothermal vents and cold water corals, from destructive fishing practices, recognizing the immense importance and value of deep sea ecosystems and the biodiversity they contain;
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Seamounts, corals, and their importance to pelagic ecosystems (and also fisheries)
Some seamounts have corals…
Some seamounts are fished…
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Seamounts are significant habitats for many ocean predators
• Cetaceans• Sharks• Tunas and billfish• Cephalopods• Pinnipeds• Turtles• Seabirds
Photoes: Greenpeace, NationalGeographic, Monterey Whale Watching, NOAA, AD Rogers
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Demersal / bentho-pelagic fish
Chimaera – Hatton Bank (DTi SEA Prog.) Spectrunculus – Davidson (NOAA/MBARI)
Alfonsino (NOAA) Oreo (NOAA)
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Seamounts harbour distinct communities with a high diversity
Tasmanian Seamounts
297 species of animals on 14 seamounts
16 - 33% are new to science
Low overlap in species presenton different seamounts
Even lower co-occurrence ofspecies on different chains
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Trawling
Trawling gear is extremelyrobust – doors are severaltonnes each.
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Tasmanian Seamounts
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Tasmanian Seamounts - fished
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Evidence of fishing
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Octocorals – up to >4000 years old
Recovery will be slow (~ 100s – 1000s years)
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Distribution of live coral
Diabolical
Fished
Unfished
Graveyard
Gothic
Morgue
Clark &Rowden inPrep.
+ survey location; O corals found
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Sustainability of Fishing..?
Time series of bottom fisheriescatches by depth (Morato et al. 2005. Fish & Fisheries 7: 24-34)
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Deep-sea commercial species
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Deep-sea fisheries: NW Atlantic example
All 5 species “Critically endangered” under IUCN criteria. Devine et al. (2006) Nature 439: 29
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UNCLOS provides the legal framework for deep-sea fisheries on the high seas
(i) Low productivity species
and
(ii) Fisheries where gear contactsthe seabed in the normalcourse of operations.
Dealing specifically with impacts toVulnerable Marine Ecosystemsincluding chance encounters.
www.iucn.org
But scientific guidance is required…
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Part 2
1. Background: Seamount coral habitat as an example of a Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem (VME)
2. Results: Predicting the distribution of cold-water corals and protections to date
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How can we find where a species is?
• Niche– The range of environmental conditions (biological and
physical) under which an organism can exist.
• Tolerance– The ability of organisms to exist at the fringes of its
niche.
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Data Presences Environmental data
Model
Idealised niche=
Possible distribution
Processing
Output
95%
2%
3%
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2008, on our first attempt,We encountered limitations…• Low resolution of environmental
data.• Incomplete geographical
distribution of environmental data.• Paucity of presences.• Lack of absences reduces the
available modelling techniques.
• How can we address these?
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Bottom temperature
generalised 1 km2
grid. Constructed using 33 depth
layers from World Ocean Atlas.
* Not yet verified by independent measures *
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New methodology• Uses Maxent model (Phillips et al.
2006).• 26 global variables created at 1km
cell size.– Geophysical: slope, BTM, rugosity etc.– Chemical: carbonate chemistry,
nutrients, salinity etc.– Biotic: food supply.– Physical: currents, temperature etc.
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New results• Results presented here are for stony
corals (Scleractinia –mostly L. pertusa, M. oculata, D. dianthus, S. variablis, G. dumosa and includes approximately 270 other species).
• In total, we modelled the niche using 4140 records split into 75% training and 25% test data sets.
• Have data for Octocorals, Antipatharians etc, but not showing those results here.
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Variable Unit Name Cell size (x,y) Depth Range (levels) Reference
Geophysical variables -
1 Depth m DEPTH 0.0083° Ocean depth (1 level) Becker et al. (in press)
2 Slope m m-1 SLOPE 0.25°, 0.2° Ocean depth (1 level) Becker & Sandwell (2008)
3 Rugosity - RUGOS 0.0083° Ocean depth (1 level) Derived from Becker et al. (in press)1
4 Aspect eastings - ASPE 0.0083° Ocean depth (1 level) Derived from Becker et al. (in press)2
5 Aspect northings - ASPN 0.0083° Ocean depth (1 level) Derived from Becker et al. (in press)2
6 Bathymetric position index - BTM1 0.0083° Ocean depth (1 level) Derived from Becker et al. (in press)1 1 – 51
7 Bathymetric position index - BTM2 0.0083° Ocean depth (1 level) Derived from Becker et al. (in press)1 2 - 101
8 Slope 2 ° SLOPE2 0.0083° Ocean depth (1 level) Derived from Becker et al. (in press)1
Hydrographic variables
9 Regional current flow cm s-1 REGFL 0.5° 5-5374m (40 levels) Carton et al. (2005)3
10 Vertical flow m/s VERTFL 0.5° 5-5374m (40 levels) Carton et al. (2005)3
Chemical variables
11 Alkalinity μmol cm-3 ALK 3.6°, 0.8-1.8° 6-4775 m (25 levels) Steinacher et al. (2008)4
12 Apparent oxygen utilisation ml l-1 AOXU 1° 0-5500 m (33 levels) Garcia et al. (2006a)
13 Aragonite Ωarag ARAG 3.6°, 0.8-1.8° 6-4775 m (25 levels) Steinacher et al. (2008) 4
14 Calcite Ωcalc CALC 3.6°, 0.8-1.8° 6-4775 m (25 levels) Steinacher et al. (2008) 4
Carbonate ion 3 3 6° 0 8- 4
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Database of all coral records on seamounts
Rogers et al., 2007; Clark et al. (2006)
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Comparing two different algorithms: MaxENT and ENFA –predicted habitat suitability for Scleractinia
Model results similarbut MaxEnt performedsignificantly better thanENFA
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Results: Predicted global distribution of stony corals
1
2 3
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1. N Atlantic Closures
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2. S Atlantic Closures
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3. S Indian Ocean Vol. Closures
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What are the major environmental drivers?• Combination:
– Carbonate chemistry.– Temperature.– Salinity.– Nutrients.– Dissolved O2.– Topography.– Food supply.
• Caveat: Habitat prediction can only provide an indication of “niche.” It does not resolve temporal variability, competitive exclusion/competition. We still need experiments and observations.
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Conclusions• Better accuracy & precision: Species -
habitat prediction has improved greatly over the past couple years;
• Ad hoc approach to fisheries closures:Fisheries management has to date relied on anecdotal information;
• Incomplete protection: Current VME protections appear to be v. incomplete;
• Collaboration required: Ecologists and fisheries scientists have different skills which need to be combined in order to meet the requirements of UNGA Res. 61/105
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Acknowledgements
Thanks to the two analysis teams:
Dr.s Andrew Davies & John GuinotteDr.s Alex Rogers & Derek Tittensor
Thank you