predicting sea level rise impacts on hawaiis anchialine pool ecosystems lisa marrack uc berkeley ala...
TRANSCRIPT
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Predicting Sea Level Rise Impacts on Hawaii’s Anchialine Pool Ecosystems
Lisa MarrackUC Berkeley
Ala Kahakai National Historical Park
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Sea Level Rise
Sea level is expected to rise between 0.5 to 1.6m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Vermeer&Rahmstorf 2009)
Observed
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Water Withdrawal and Non-Point Source Pollution
http:/www.yfrog.com/gzt4wyrj
• Coastal inundation• Storm run up• Habitat shifts
Ali’i Drive, Kona, HI
March 11, 2011
Predicted Impacts
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Figure by: Jonathan D. Craft, Auburn University
Anchialine Pools
Scott Santos
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The Spirit of Kaloko-HonokohauCultural and Natural Resources
Megalagrion xanthomelas Metabetaeus lohena & Halocaridina rubra
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Questions
• What coastal features will be inundated by 2100 along the west coast of Hawaii due to a 1 meter sea level rise?
• Where will we expect new anchialine pool habitats to emerge within the arid coastline of west Hawaii?
Questions
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DATA
FEMA – Lidar 2006
• Average point distance is 3 ft
• 1074 tiles on Big Island
• 500,000 bare earth pts /tile
• ± 0.51 ft vertical accuracy (95% CI)
Elevation Data
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Kaloko Honokohau National Historical Park
Geospatial anchialine pool data -abiotic and biotic (Marrack & Beavers 2009)
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High Tide
2.28ft
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Sea Level Rise (1 m)
3.28 ft
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(5.57 ft)
Sea Level Rise + High Tide
5.57 ft
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(5.57 ft)
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Where will we expect new anchialine pool habitats to emerge?
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Inundation of pools by 2100
81% of 194 current pools will be inundated by 1 m SLR at High Tide
Inundation of pools by 2100
(5.57 ft)
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Future and Present Pools
(5.57 ft)
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• Include archaeological features, wetlands, fishponds
• Expand analysis within Ala Kahakai NHP corridor
• Make products available to researchers, managers, and planners
What next?
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1) What are the distribution and dispersal patterns of invasive M. lar in anchialine pools in the State of Hawaii?
- population genetics of M. lar populations - stream and anchialine pools Hawaii, Guam, French Polynesia
2) What are the relative and combined impacts of M lar, invasive fishes (poeciliids, Tilapia) and elevated nutrients on anchialine pool habitats?
- expand spatial coverage of surveys- experimental manipulations - nutrient flow through food web (isotopes)
Distribution, dispersal, and impacts of the introduced Macrobrachium lar within anchialine
pool ecosystems
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Mahalos
Rick Gmirkin & Arik Arakaki - Ala Kahakai National Historical Park, Sallie Beavers-NPS, Delwyn Oki-USGS, Eric Grossman-USGS, Rebecca Most-UH Hilo, Scott Santos – Auburn University
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Macrobrachium lar study
Samples• Stream – Mike Blum, Tulane Univ. >300 n• Samoa – NPS 20 n• Anchialine Pool
July 2010 & July 2011
25n, 6 sites
147n, 8 sites
15n, 2 sites
52n, 6 sites
47n, 4 sites
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Macrobrachium lar study
Samples• Stream – Mike Blum, Tulane Univ. >300 n• Samoa – NPS 20 n• Anchialine Pool
July 2010 & July 2011
65n, Ohiki Makalawena Mauna Lani Halape Kapoho Puako (1)
Successful PCR with 1 COI primer set.
Several sequences produced
MORE NEEDED!
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Ron Kwok, 2009, NASA/JPL
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DATA
Local Tidal DatumKawaihae/Hilo
Lidar Vertical Datum
0 Mean Sea Level
2.29 ft (0.698 m) Highest Observed Tide
3.28 ft 1 m Sea Level Rise
5.57 ft (1.698m) Sea Level Rise + High Tide