predicting possible natural disasters robert slomp
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10 maart 2011
Predicting Possible
Natural disastersmodels for risk mapping andforecast models
Robert Slomp
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contents
models for risk mappingmulti layer risk strategy
how we make flood risk maps
worst credible floods
flood scenarios
forecast models
we receive weather forecasts
Role of the LCO (set up in 2010), integrating both
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Multi layer risk strategy
Katrina, New Orleans 2005, wake up call
For spatial planning and emergency services
Flood safety policy is a mix of:
- Emergency services measures (& planning)
- Spatial planning building of a flood
resilient environment (housing & services )
- Flood protection: dunes, dikes, barriers
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Tools to determine flood risk,
a folder is available
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Worst Credible floods
National scenarios
Single floodevents:- River floods
- coastal floodsnorthern coastwestern coast
- Combinations
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Time table
a folder is available
4300 square km
120 Mld Euro10.000 casualties
a folder is available
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Western coast scenario flood depth after 48 hours
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Flood forecasting
Storms
Two services merged in the Water management center of theNetherlands (WMCN)
Stormvloed Seind Dienst (SVSD) for the coast
Waarschuwingsdienst Dijken IJsselmeergebied (WDIJ) for the largelakes
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The Netherlandsprotected by:
Dikes
Dunes
Barriers
WMCNStorm surge warning service
Dike watch
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Measurements
& forecasts
WMCN
Storm Surge Warning Service
KNMI(Royal met-office)
Dike-authorities (Water boards)
Safety regions (Firebrigade)
Provinces
Rijkswaterstaat
Decision teams Stormsurge barriers
Eastern-Scheldt
Krimpen a/d IJssel
Maeslant barrier & Hartelcanal
Press
Radio en TV
Internet / public
Headquarters
Rijkswaterstaat
Online
measurements
Waterlevel
Windspeed
WinddirectionWaves
Forecasts
Weather
Waterlevel
Warnings
Info
rmation
Advise
Dikewatch
Waterlevel
fo
recasts
Warning by
phone callfor very high
waterlevel
Alarm by
phone call forextreme high
waterlevel
Information
Measurements
Storm surge Alert
Measurements
Forecasts
Waterlevelforecasts
Meteo forecasts
Information
Organisation Storm surgewarning service
LCOalerting
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Hirlam downscaling 50 km grid picture
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Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
Warning levelsWarning levels
Frequency 2/year 1/year 1/5year
Sector Basis station pre-W-level W-level A-level
Scheldt Flushing 310 330 370
W Holland Hook of Holland 200 220 280
Dordrecht Dordrecht - - 250
Den Helder Den Helder - 190 260
Harlingen Harlingen - 270 330
Delfzijl Delfzijl 260 300 380
storm surge barriers
SVKY Krimpen a/d IJssel 210* - -
SVKO Roompot buiten 275 300* -
SVKW Hook of Holland - 250 300*
*) level when storm surge barriers will be locked
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Step 33-48 hrs before HW
DCSM8 water level forecast
Every 6 hours
Step 23-48 hrs before HW
HIRLAM Meteo forecast
Every 6 hours
Step 1
Early indication of storm surges3 8 days before HW
ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
Every 12 hours
Step 43-12 hrs beforeWaterleveldata
AssimilationEvery 3 hours
Process of makingstorm surge warnings
Step 6
Evaluation and validationprocess and modells
Measurements
Eastern Scheldt Barrier / Maeslantbarrier
Dike Watch
3-12 hrs beforeStep 6 SVSD warning systedike watch recommendatioalert authoritiesalert emergency services
advice closing barrierspublication
internet
Report
SVSDStep 5
ExperienceMan / Machine
MixEvery hour
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Storm surge barriers
There are different movable barriers along the Dutchcoast:
Krimpen aan de IJssel 1957
Haringvliet 1970
Oosterschelde 1986
Nieuwe Waterweg 1997
Hartelkanaal 1997
Different dike (rail)road crossings
Fi Coupure Delfzijl
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Accuracy storm surge sometimes it goesforecastings wrong
All saints storm tide 1st Nov 2006
Maxwindspeed
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winddirection
Track of storm
Windforce 9 Bft
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Models to predict dune erosion
HIS KUST
Find picture
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Models to predict run-up on the dikes (WDIJ)
FEWS MEREN
Include picture
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LCO National Committee on floods (since 2010)
Integration of risk mapping/scenarios and prediction
(using the ten day ensemble prediction)
We are never done, improving, our models and improving our skills inusing them. (Every storm of river flood is unique, and offers new
insights on how nature works)
Because of uncertainty and models errors interpretation and floodwarnings cannot be automated
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Questions?
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Pictures I will not use, since they are more a matter of themeteorological services
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Ten day ensemble for wind and precipitation
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