predicting hurricanes and hurricane riskcolloq/talk2006... · •hurricanes result from a...
TRANSCRIPT
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Hurricane Physics
Kerry Emanuel
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
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Program
• Overview of hurricanes
• Physics of mature, steady hurricanes
• The genesis problem
• Hurricanes and the thermohaline
circulation
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1. Overview: What is a Hurricane?
Formal definition: A tropical cyclonewith 1-min average winds at 10 m altitude in excess of 32 m/s (64 knots or 74 MPH) occurring over the North Atlantic or eastern North Pacific
A tropical cyclone is a nearly symmetric, warm-core cyclone powered by wind-induced enthalpy fluxes from the sea surface
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Tracks of all tropical cyclones, 1985-2005
Source: Wikipedia
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Hurricane Structure
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The View from Space
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Hurricane Structure: Wind Speed
Azimuthal component of wind
< 11 5 ms-1 - > 60 ms-1
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Updraft Speed
Vertical Air Motion
Strong upward motion in the eyewall
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Physics of Mature Hurricanes
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Energy Production
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Carnot Theorem: Maximum efficiency results from
a particular energy cycle:
• Isothermal expansion
• Adiabatic expansion
• Isothermal compression
• Adiabatic compression
Note: Last leg is not adiabatic in hurricane: Air cools radiatively. But since
environmental temperature profile is moist adiabatic, the amount of
radiative cooling is the same as if air were saturated and descending moist
adiabatically.
Maximum rate of working:
s o
s
T TW Q
T
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Total rate of heat input to hurricane:
0 * 3
00
2 | | | |r
k DQ C k k C rdr V V
Surface enthalpy fluxDissipative
heating
In steady state, Work is used to balance frictional dissipation:
0 3
02 | |
r
DW C rdr V
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Plug into Carnot equation:
0 03 *
00 0
| | | |r r
s oD k
o
T TC rdr C k k rdr
T
V V
If integrals dominated by values of integrands near
radius of maximum winds,
2 *| |max 0
C T Tk s oV k k
C TD o
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Theoretical Upper Bound on
Hurricane Maximum Wind Speed:
*2| |0
C T Tk s oV k kpot TC
oD
Air-sea enthalpy
disequilibrium
Surface
temperature
Outflow
temperature
Ratio of
exchange
coefficients of
enthalpy and
momentum
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Numerical simulations
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Thermodynamic disequilibrium necessary to
maintain ocean heat balance:
Ocean mixed layer Energy Balance (neglecting
lateral heat transport):
*
0| |k entrainC k k F F F
sV
2
| |
entrains opot
o D s
F F FT TV
T C
V
Greenhouse effect
Mean surface wind speed
Weak explicit
dependence on Ts
Ocean mixed layer
entrainment
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Relationship between potential
intensity (PI) and intensity of
real tropical cyclones
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Why do real storms seldom reach
their thermodynamic potential?
One Reason: Ocean Interaction
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Ocean Interaction
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Mixed layer depth and
currents
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SST Change
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Comparing Fixed to Interactive SST:
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A good simulation of Camille can only be obtained by assuming that
it traveled right up the axis of the Loop Current:
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2. Sea Spray
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3. Wind Shear
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Dependence on Sea Surface
Temperature (SST):
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What controls global tropical
cyclone frequency?
• In today’s climate, tropical cyclones must
be triggered by independent disturbances
• Tropical cyclone models also require finite
amplitude perturbations to initiate
hurricanes
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Numerical Simulations
Axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud-resolving model of Rotunno and Emanuel (J. Atmos. Sci., 1987); see Emanuel and Rotunno, Tellus, 1989. 3.75 km horizontal resolution; 300 m in vertical
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Classical initialization with warm-core vortex
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Same behavior in poor man’s model:
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Saturate troposphere inside 100 km in initial state:
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Integrations of a 3-D
cloud system-resolving
model in radiative-
convective equilibrium
with fixed SST, by
David Nolan
SST = 30 oC
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SST = 35 oC
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Second Approach to
Frequency Issue:
Develop an empirical index based on monthly re-analysis data
Test index against geographic, seasonal and interannual variability
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Empirical Index:
5
33 23
210 1 0.1 ,50 70
VpotI V
shear
1)850 ( ,hPa absolute vorticity s
1( ),V Potential wind speed mspot
600 (%),mbrelativehumidity
1( ).850 250
V msshear
V V
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Seasonal Variability:
2 4 6 8 10 120
100
200
300
400
500
Month
Nu
mb
er
of
Ev
en
ts
Northern Hemisphere
Actual Predicted
2 4 6 8 10 120
50
100
150
200
250
300
Month
Nu
mb
er
of
Ev
en
ts
Southern Hemisphere
Actual Predicted
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Spatial Variability:
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Ocean Feedback
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Ocean Thermohaline Circulation
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Heat Transport by Oceans and Atmosphere
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A hot plate is brought in contact with the left half of the surface of a
swimming pool of cold water. Heat diffuses downward and the warm water
begins to rise. The strength of the circulation is controlled in part by the rate
of heat diffusion. In the real world, this rate is very, very small.
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Adding a stirring rod to this picture greatly enhances the circulation by
mixing the warm water to greater depth and bringing more cold water in
contact with the plate. The strength of the lateral heat flux is proportional to
the 2/3 power of the power put into the stirring, and the 2/3 power of the
temperature of the plate.
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Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere model run for67 of the 83 tropical cyclones that occurredin calendar year 1996
Accumulated TC-induced ocean heatingdivided by 366 days
Result:
Net column-integrated heating of oceaninduced by global tropical cyclone activity:
151.4 0.7 10 W
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Transient experiment by Rob Korty
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Summary
• Hurricanes are almost perfect Carnot heat engines, operating off the thermodynamic disequilibrium between the tropical ocean and atmosphere, made possible by the greenhouse effect
• Most hurricanes are prevented from reaching their potential intensity by storm-induced ocean cooling and environmental wind shear
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• Hurricanes result from a finite-amplitude
instability of the tropical ocean-
atmosphere system
• Hurricane-induced mixing of the upper
ocean may be the main driver of the
ocean’s deep overturning circulation, an
important component of the climate
system