predicted climate change and its impact on agriculture in malaysia

Predicted climate change and its impact on agriculture in Predicted climate change and its impact on agriculture in MalaysiaMalaysia

MALAYSIA’S CLIMATEMALAYSIA’S CLIMATE

Malaysia has a tropical climate: hot and humid General characteristics

uniform air temperature high humidity high and heavy rainfall low wind speed cloudy

rarely clear skies even during drought periods

INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry; Edited byJames Salinger, M.V.K. Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha; Springer, Netherlands, 2005

Köppen Climate Classification SystemKöppen Climate Classification System

5 climate regions A - Tropical Moist Climates: all months have average

temperatures above 18° Celsius B - Dry Climates: with deficient precipitation during

most of the year C - Moist Mid-latitude Climates with Mild Winters D - Moist Mid-Latitude Climates with Cold Winters E - Polar Climates: with extremely cold winters and

summers

Mean annual cloud cover (1983-2008)

International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov Rossow, W.B., and Schiffer, R.A., 1999: Advances in Understanding Clouds from ISCCP. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 2261-2288.

http://www.scilogs.eu/en/blog/spacetimedreamer/2009-06-15/the-sunniest-and-darkest-places-on-earth

Mean for whole Earth = 240 Wm-2 per day

Monthly relative humidty (RH) mean monthly 70 to 90% difference between mean monthly min. and max. RH

about 3-15% usually min. RH in Jan-Feb

except east coast Kelatan and Terengganu, min RH during March

usually max. RH in Nov in Peninsular, average 84% in Feb. and 88% in Nov.

but Northwest states in Peninsular: 72% in Feb. and 87% in Nov

Daily RH Northwest states also has the highest diurnal variation

in RH in dry months, min daily RH can be 42% in wet months min daily RH can be as high as 70% max daily RH does not vary much from place to place

never below 94% RH

Annual air temperature Being near the equator, Malaysia has a uniform

temperature throughout the year annual variation less than 2 C except for the east

coast areas in Peninsular Malaysia which are affected by cold winds from Siberia during the northeast monsoon (< 3 C variation)

Daily air temperature typically varies between 20-30 C

5-10 C variation in coastal areas 8-12 C variation in inland areas very rarely above 38 C

Monthly air temperature Apr-May have the highest monthly air temperature Dec-Jan the lowest air temperature

Wind has four seasons: southwest monsoon, northeast monsoon, and two other shorter intermonsoon seasons southwest monsoon

May/June to Sept. < 15 knots (note 1 knot = 0.5 m s-1)

northeast monsoon Nov to March 10-20 knots may reach 30 knots in east coast areas in

Peninsular Malaysia cold winds from Siberia

Apr-Nov, typhoon in neighbouring countries, may bring strong winds to Sabah and Sarawak (>20 knots)

Rainfall 2500 mm mean annual rainfall (note: 1 mm = 1 L or 1

kg of water in 1 m2) affected by wind flow (monsoons) and topographic

features Seasonal rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

A) East coast Nov-Jan: wettest & June-July: driest

B) Southwest areas Oct-Nov: wettest & Feb: driest

C) The rest 2 periods of maximum (Oct-Nov and Apr-May) and

2 periods of minimum (Jan-Feb and Jun-July) rainfall

Seasonal rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak A) Coastal Sarawak and northeast Sabah

Jan: wettest June/July is the driest in Sarawak but April in

Sabah Dec-Mar is the main source of rain for west

Sarawak B) Inland Sarawak

evenly distributed rain, slightly lower in Jun-Aug. hill slopes in inland Sarawak has the highest

rainfall in Malaysia (e.g., Long Akah has >5000 mm annual rain)

C) Northwest coast Sabah 2 periods of maximum (Oct and June) and 2

periods of minimum (Feb and Aug) rainfall D) Central Sabah

hilly and sheltered areas low rainfall and evenly distributed with less distinct

2 periods of maximum (May and Oct) and 2 periods of minimum (Feb and Aug) rainfall

E) Southern Sabah evenly distributed rain amount of rain received is like Central Sabah, but

Feb-Apr is slightly drier than the rest of the year

Sunshine and solar radiation average 6 hours of sunshine (>120 W m-2) per day Alor Setar and Kota Bharu

avg. 7 hours per day but 8.7 hours per day in Jan

Kuching avg. 5 hours per day but 3.7 hours per day in Jan

Evaporation (ET) indicates amount of water loss by evaporation into the

atmosphere affected by cloudiness and air temperature, also by

RH and wind speed more clouds and high RH, less ET high temperature and high wind speed, more ET

lowland areas: 4 - 5 mm per day highland areas: 2.5 mm per day

Trends in climate change in MalaysiaTrends in climate change in Malaysia

Temperature records in Malaysia in the last 50 years have shown warming trends

But insufficient data to determine whether the frequency of extreme events (e.g., drought, storms and floods) has indeed increased

Balanced scorecard for natural disaster management projects; Tun Lin Moe, Fritz Gehbauer and Stefan Senitz; Disaster Prevention and Management; Vol. 16 No. 5, 2007; 785-806

A total of 19 natural disasters in Malaysia (1968-2004)About one natural disaster every 2 years

Disaster types in Malaysia: an overview; Ibrahim Mohamed Shaluf, Fakhru'l-Razi Ahmadun; Disaster Prevention and Management Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 2006, 286-298

Landslide

Mean increase per decade = +0.18 C

Linear Regression Line


Climate Change Scenarios for Malaysia 2001-2099. Scientific Report; Malaysian Meteorological Dept. (2009)

GLOBAL* MALAYSIA**

2050 2100 2050

Surface temperature (ºC)

1.61.6 2.82.8 1.51.5

Sea level rise (m) 0.21 to 0.21 to 0.480.48

--

Annual Rainfall +10% (Kelantan, Terengganu +10% (Kelantan, Terengganu & Pahang)& Pahang)

-5% (Selangor & Johor)-5% (Selangor & Johor)

* IPCC WG1 4TH ASESSMENT REPORT (AR4), 2007** STUDY ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGIC REGIME AND WATER RESOURCES OF PENISULAR MALAYSIA, NAHRIM, 2006NAHRIM (National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia)

Region Mean monthly precipitation (mm)

Current 2025-2050

West Coast 179 176

Klang Valley 190 182

Selangor 190 181

Johor 187 180

Terengganu 289 299

Kelantan 222 240

Pahang 199 208

Perak 193 199

Kedah 174 177

Southern Peninsula 194 196

N. East Coast 260 282

Predicted monthly rainfall in Peninsular MalaysiaPredicted monthly rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

Serdang min. air temperatureSerdang min. air temperature

y = 0.055x - 87.76R² = 0.761

20

21

22

23

24

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Tem

p.

(°C

)

Year

Serdang max. air temperatureSerdang max. air temperature

y = 0.043x - 53.14R² = 0.446

30

31

32

33

34

35

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Tem

p. (

°C

)

Year

Serdang rainfallSerdang rainfall

y = 21.51x - 40498R² = 0.277

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

To

tal R

ain

fall (m

m)

Year

Serdang wind speedSerdang wind speed

y = -0.013x + 28.07R² = 0.635

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Win

d s

peed

(m

s-1)

Year

Serdang sunshine hourSerdang sunshine hour

y = 0.032x - 59.17R² = 0.354

0

2

4

6

8

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Sun

sh

ine h

our (h

)

Year

Generally, crop yields in Malaysia would increase in higher CO2 concentrations, lower air temperatures,

higher wind speeds, lower humidity more sunshine hours (or less clouds)

greater solar radiation, greater energy for photosynthesis

lower air pollutants more rainfall

in normally dry areas, but may increase pests and diseases incidences

or less rainfall in normally wet areas

But these above factors interact with each other to affect yields so what is the net effect of climate change on yields?

Yield in ton/ha/yr

Effect of climate change on rubberEffect of climate change on rubber


Rubber flourishes in a tropical climate with a high mean daily air temperature of 25-28 C high rainfall exceeding 2000 mm per year even distribution of rainfall with no dry seasons

exceeding one month at least 2100 h of sunshine per year

5.75 h per day

If the mean daily air temperature increases by 4.5 C above the mean annual temperature, more dry months and hence more moisture stress can occur

A crop decrease of 3–15% due to drought conditions is projected if mean annual temperature increases to 31 C

The degree of yield decrease will be dependent on clonal susceptibility, as well as the length and severity of the drought

Some states may experience a reduction in production. It is projected that 273,000 ha of land, or 15% of

current rubber land, may be affected

If rainfall increases, loss of tapping days and crop washout occur Yield losses can range from 13 to 30%

If sea level rises by 1 m, low-lying areas may be flooded and rubber cultivation would not be possible in these areas

Yield in ton/ha/yr

Effect of climate change on oil palmEffect of climate change on oil palm


Oil palm is best suited to a humid tropical climate in which rain occurs mostly at night and days are bright and

sunny minimum monthly rainfall is around 1500 mm with

absence of dry seasons an evenly distributed sunshine exceeding 2000 h per

year A mean maximum temperature of about 29–33 C and a

mean minimum temperature of 22–24 C favor the highest bunch production

A high mean annual temperature of 28–31 C is favorable for high production

If these higher temperatures lead to drought conditions, however, an estimated 208,000 ha of land or 12% of the present oil palm areas would be considered marginal-to-unsuitable for oil palm cultivation, particularly in drought-prone areas

Increased rainfall favors oil palm productivity unless it leads to flooding

With an anticipated sea level rise of 1 m, an estimated 100,000 ha of area, currently planted with oil palm, may be deemed unsuitable and would have to be abandoned

Yield in ton/ha/yr

Effect of climate change on cocoaEffect of climate change on cocoa


Cocoa is planted in areas where annual rainfall is in the range of 1250–2800 mm

Cocoa prefers areas where annual rainfall is in the range of 1500–2000 mm and the number of dry months is three or less

It should not be planted in areas with annual rainfall below 1250 mm, unless irrigation is provided

Areas with annual rainfall exceeding 2500 mm are also not favorable as it reduces yield by 10–20% due to water logging excessive rainfall causes high disease incidence,

especially Phytophthora and pink diseases

Temperatures exceeding 32 C may result in moisture stress, leading to yield loss of 10–20%

Based on these considerations, the states that experience a distinct dry season are marginal areas for cocoa cultivation Irrigation is required in these areas if cocoa is to be

cultivated Some areas, which register high rainfall, are not suited

for cocoa cultivation due to the high incidence of diseases This can result in yield loss of more than 20%

With climate change, a high incidence of drought is expected to reduce yield

On the other hand, excessive rainfall with reduced insolation can also result in low yields under such wet conditions, a high incidence of fungal

diseases such as vascular streak disease and black pod can depress yields

Yield in ton/ha/yr

Effect of climate change on riceEffect of climate change on rice


Rice constitutes 98% of total cereal production in Malaysia

Generally, long periods of sunshine are favorable for high rice yields

Growth is optimal when the daily air temperature is between 24 and 36 C. The difference between day and night temperatures must be minimal during flowering and grain production

Grain yields may decline by 9–10% for each 1 C rise in temperature

If drought conditions are prolonged, the current flooded rice ecosystem can not be sustained. It may be necessary to develop non-flooded and dry land rice ecosystem to increase the level of national rice sufficiency a threat to national food security

World’s ten largest producer of rice in 2008:

1. China (193.4 mil ton)

2. India (148.3 mil ton)

3. Indonesia (60.3 mil ton)

4. Bangladesh (46.9 mil ton)

5. Viet Nam (38.7 mil ton)

6. Myanmar (30.5 mil ton)

7. Thailand (30.5 mil ton)

8. Philippines (16.8 mil ton)

9. Brazil (12.1 mil ton)

10. Japan (11.0 mil ton)

…

25. Malaysia (2.4 mil ton)

50% of world’s rice

Rice productivity by country (1961-2008)Rice productivity by country (1961-2008)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Yie

ld (

ton

/ha

)Australia

Japan

China

Indonesia

Viet Nam

Malaysia

Thailand

Myanmar

Australia and Japan: most efficient countries, but largevariations year-on-yearChina: rapid & steady increase (2.1 to 6.6 ton/ha between 1961-2008)

Average rice productivity (2000-2008)Average rice productivity (2000-2008)

8.7

6.4 6.3

4.7 4.6

3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.12.8

2.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Yie

ld (

ton/

ha)

Average Rice Productivity by Country (2000-2008)

Malaysia rice statisticsMalaysia rice statistics

2008:0.67 mil. ha

2008:2.5 mil. ton+28,300 tonper year

2008:3.6 ton/ha+0.04 ton/haper year

2008:86.0 kg/capita-1.0 kg/capitaper year

est. 2015

est. 2015

est. 2015

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

mil.

ha

Year

Malaysia Rice Land Area

needed to obtain 100% in rice self-sufficiency

assuming no change in land area by 2015

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

ton/

ha

Year

Malaysia Rice Yield Productivity

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

mil.

ton

Year

Malaysia Rice Yield

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

kg p

er ca

pita

Year

Malaysia Rice Yield Per Capita

Malaysia self-sufficiency levelsMalaysia self-sufficiency levels

Period % self-sufficiency

1956-60 54

1961-65 60

1966-70 80

1971-75 87

1976-80 92

1981-85 77

1986-90 75

1991-95 76

1996-2000 71

2001-05 71

2006-08 72

Target: 100% self-sufficient by 2015Possible?

Mean rice productivity increase per yearMean rice productivity increase per year

1.5

2.0

-0.2

1.1

2.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008

% m

ea

n c

ha

ng

e in

rice

yie

ld p

er

he

cta

re p

er

yea

r

Malaysia Rice Yield Productivity Change Per Year

+2.0% increase per year only(not 4.9% required for 100% self sufficiency by 2015)

Malaysia’s self sufficiency levelMalaysia’s self sufficiency level

Year Fruits Veg. Beef Mutton Pork Poultry Eggs Dairy Fish

1990 110.4 75.2 23.8 10.5 113.9 106.3 109 4.3 91.1

1995 103 87 22 6 101 114 114 4 91

2000 91.3 88.5 22.7 6.4 80 127.8 139 4 89

2005 117 74 23 8 107 121 113 5 91

2007 105 89 25 9 106 121 114 5 97

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Year

% la

nd

usa

ge

Industrial crops

Food crops

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Year

% la

nd

usa

ge

Oil palm

Rubber

% Malaysia agriculture land usage, 1960-2005% Malaysia agriculture land usage, 1960-2005

Emphasis is on industrial crops, not food crops

predicted climate change and its impact on agriculture in malaysia

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