p.r. shukla indian institute of management...

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Low-Carbon Society Scenarios for India: Aligning Sustainable Development and Climate Actions

P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India

Presented in the “Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 Project Symposium”Tokyo, Japan, February 12, 2009


India Economy-Energy-Emissions Trends

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

28019

80

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Indi

ces,

Bas

e:19

80=1

00

Energy consumption

Energy/person

Energy Intensity of GDP

Population

Electricity Consumption

GDP at factor cost

2006

300

Data Sources: CMIE, CEA, Census 2001, Economic Surveys and Government of India Ministry reports

2008


Base Scenario: AssumptionsBase Scenario

1. GDP • Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from 2005-50• 2050 Economy: 23 times larger than 2005

2. Population • 2000: 1021 Million• 2050: 1593 Million

3. 650 ppmv CO2e Concentration Stabilization (or 550 CO2)

4. 4.7 W/m2 Radiative Forcing

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2020 2035 2050

Bas

e Ye

ar 2

005=

1

Annual Growth Rate 2005-50: 7.3%Annual Growth Rate 2005-32: 8%

GDP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

US

$/pe

rson

Per Capita Income

Savings Rate

20.622.8

24.6

33.035.0

32

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

4037??


Future Energy Mix: India

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mto

eOther RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass


Future Carbon Emissions: India

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2


Alternate Development VisionsStabilization Target and Visions

1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption:• 550 ppmv CO2e Concentration• 3.4 W/m2• @ 3o C temperature increase (50:50)

2. Two Development Pathways for India: (with same total CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050)

1. Conventional Vision: Climate Actions at Margin of Conventional Development path

2. ‘Sustainability’ Vision: Aligning Climate Actions with Mainstream Development Actions

What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments?


LCS via Climate Centric Actions

Carbon Market

Technologies

Energy Resources

Universal Participation

Market Structure/ Rules

Allocation of Rights

Modify Preferences

Competition/ Trade

Energy-Mix Mandates

Tech Transfer

Cooperative R&D

Remove Market Barriers

TargetInterventionsDriversAim

Forecasting

Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss

Global Greenhouse Gas

Concentration Stabilization


Vision I: Climate Centric Scenario1. Top-down/Supply-side actions

2. High Carbon Price as main instrument

3. Climate Focused Technology Push

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Others

CCS

Device Efficiency

Renewable Energy

Electricity (Fuel Switch)

Base

CT

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

OthersOthers

CCS

Device EfficiencyDevice Efficiency

Renewable Energy Renewable Energy

Electricity (Fuel Switch)Electricity (Fuel Switch)

Base

CT


India: National Climate Change Action Plan

8 National Missions:1. Solar Energy (100 MW PV/yr; 1000 MW Thermal by 2017)

2. Enhanced energy efficiency (10000 MW saving by 2012)

3. Sustainable habitat

4. Water Sector (20% water use efficiency improvement)

5. Sustaining the Himalayan eco-system

6. A “Green India” (6 Mil. Hectare afforestation; Forest cover from 23 to 33%)

7. Sustainable agriculture

8. Strategic knowledge for climate change


LCS with Sustainability

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability

Technological

Social/Institutional

Management

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock-ins

Long-term Vision

Win/Win OptionsShared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

National Socio-economic

Objectives and Targets

Global Climate Change

Objectives and Targets

TargetsInterventionsDriversAim

Back-casting


Vision II: Sustainability Scenario1. Low Carbon Price2. Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions3. Behavioural Change4. Diverse Technology Portfolio

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

OthersCCSTransport ModeUrban PlanningConsumptionRecyclingMaterial SubstitutionsAppliance EfficiencyRenewable Energy Building

Electricity (Fuel Switch)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Renewable Energy Renewable


Sustainable Cities: Planning and Infrastructures

• Land-use Planning

• Building Choices

• Infrastructures

• Service Networks

Technologies for Train Corridors

Bus Rapid Transport System


Dematerialization

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)

Conventional Development

Sustainable Society

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)


Sustainable Society

Cement

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)

Steel


Sustainable SocietyD

eman

d (M

illio

n To

n)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Steel


Sustainable Society100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Conventional DevelopmentConventional Development

Sustainable Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Sustainable Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Sustainable Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)


Sustainable Society

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Paper

Dem

and

(Tril

lion

Ton-

Km

s)

0

1000

2000

3000


Sustainable Society

Transport

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


Co-benefits of Energy ChoicesMDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability

¨

!.

!.

!.

!. !.

!.

!.!.!.!.

F

F

Ñº

ÑºÑº

India

China

Iran

Pakistan

Afghanistan

OmanMyanmar (Burma)

Thailand

Nepal

Turkmenistan

Saudi Arabia

Tajikistan

Yemen

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

Bhutan

Uzbekistan

Somalia

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Laos

Malaysia

Bahrain

IndonesiaMaldives

Pune

GayaKota

Guna

Gadag

Kochi

Patna

Delhi

Anand

Dadra

SuratOlpad

Kalol

Panvel

Hassan

Dispur

Ambala

Nangal

Kanpur

Jhansi

UjjainJhabua

Valsad

NadiadRajkot

SolapurGuhagarChiptun

Chennai

Nellore

Kolkata

Sangrur

Sonipat

AuraiyaGwalior

Chotila Bharuch

PalmanerChittoor

Kokinada

LudhianaBathinda

Bareilly

Vijaypur

Mahesana

Tutikorin

MangaloreBangalore

Vijaywada

Faridabad

Ratnagiri

Kayankulam

Coimbatore

Jagdishpuri

Shahjahanpur

Vishakhapattnam

Tiruchchirappalli

Herat

MultanQuetta

Khuzdar

Karachi

DelaramKandhar

South-ParsIranshaharBandar-e-Abbas

Legend Important PlacesExisting Gas Pipelines

Proposed Gas PipelinesExisting LNG terminalsProposed LNG terminalsExisting Gas Basin

Gas Pipelines under construction

Proposed Gas Basin¨

CoCo--benefits of Southbenefits of South--Asia Asia Integrated EnergyIntegrated Energy--Water MarketWater Market

Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 2010 to 2030

$ Billion % GDP

Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87

CO2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08

SO2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03

Total 359 0.98

Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits

• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)

• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)

• Flood control (MDG1&7)

• Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)


LCS with Lower Carbon Prices

Base Case

Conventional Society

Sustainable Society

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2020 2030 2040

Pric

e C

O2

(US

$/tC

O2)

2050

CO2 Price


Water Availability: DELHIExisting and Envisaged Water Sources for Delhi

Water Supply from Various Sources

310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310

140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140100 100

240 240 240 240 240 240 2400 0

80 80 80 80 80 80 80

0 0

45 45 45 45 45 45

100 100

135 135 135 135 135 135 135

0 0

0 0

440

865 865 865 865

0 0

0200

200

400 400 400 400

0 0

0

55

55 55 55 55

45

55

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101

Year

Yamuna river bed potentialNCR Augmentation (CGWB)Additional PlanSub Surface WaterRecycling of Waste WaterSaving of SeepageUpper Ganga CanalBBMBYamuna River


Water Availability: DELHIExisting and Envisaged Water Sources for Delhi under Climate Change

Water Supply from Various Sources Under Climate Change

310 372 372 372 372248 248

140168 168 144.2 128.8

120.4 116.2

100

288 288 247.2 220.8

206.4 199.20 0

80 8080 80

80 800 0

4545 45

45 45100

135 135135 135

135 1350 0

0 0

462692

648.75 631.45

0 0

0200

200

400

400 400

0 0

0

55

55

55 55

248310

112140

192100

8045

45

135

100

501.7

400

55

55

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101

Year

Yamuna river bed potentialNCR Augmentation (CGWB)Additional PlanSub Surface WaterRecycling of Waste WaterSaving of SeepageUpper Ganga CanalBBMBYamuna River


Sustainability: Domains, Elements and Actions

Sustainability Domains

DomainTypologies

Actions/Instruments(Examples)

How can preferences be

shaped & aligned with sustainability

goals?

What are the drivers of key socio-politico-

economic development processes?

Processes/ Institutions

How do human and natural

systems evolve? How do they

interact?

How to sustain & enhance capital

stocks in interest of present & future

generations?

Capital Stocks

Systems

• Natural

• Manmade

• Human

• Social

• Globalization

• Urbanization

• Industrialization

• Public

• Private/Personal

• Community

Conservation, Tax

Design, Standards

Investments, Access

Awareness, Media

Water Management, Trade

Cap & Trade, Eco-funds

Market Reforms, Tariffs

Zoning, User Charges

Competition, R&D

Social Security

Choices, Freedoms

• Human (e.g. Food System)

• Natural (e.g. Environment)

Preferences

Key Elements(Examples)

Natural Resources, Ecology

Buildings, Infrastructures

Education, Health

Institutions, Social Networks

Diets, Technologies

Climate Change, Bio-diversity

Trade, Migration

Urban Planning, Regulations

Industry Structure, Innovation

Rights, Equity, Public Goods

Lifestyle, Savings

Norms, Customs, Traditions Dialogue, Media


Conclusions: Low Carbon Transition with Sustainability

• Focus on Behavior Change & Technology RD&D/ Transfer

• Actions to shift from Margin to Mainstream– Development vision matters to LCS transition– Investments that avoids lock-ins into high emissions paths– Bottom-up actions coordinate with top-down vision and policies

• ‘Paradigm Shift towards ‘Co-benefits’ and ‘Co-operation’: – Co-benefits makes it a positive-sum game – Deliver LCS at Low Carbon Price– Focus on Drivers of Long-term Energy and Environment Future

• Even in LCS with sustainability, exclusive climate-centric actions for stabilization and adaptation will be needed, but their costs and risks shall be much lower


How this matters to post-2012 negotiations?

•Mainstream Climate Actions with Development PrioritiesFocus on funding for actions which deliver Co-benefitsNew framework to assess investments

•Global Co-operationTechnology transfer and cooperative R&D

Investments in sustainable infrastructures in developing countries

•Combination of Climate and Sustainable Development Policies

Combination of Market and Regulations (e.g. Carbon Price, Funds)

Investments that avoid long-term carbon emissions ‘lock-ins’

Measures to alter behavior (e.g. 3R)

Varied Targets (e.g. Energy Intensity, CAFE Standards, Sector Targets)

Thank you

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