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CO2 Mitigation Technologies

in the Transportation Sector

Takeyoshi KATOEnvironmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

A-2361 Laxenburg, AustriaPhone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax: (+43 2236) 71 313 Web: www.iiasa.ac.at

Annual IEW Meeting18-20 June 2002 at Stanford University, USA

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Contents Fuel economy and CO2 reduction cost of

current vehicles Fuel economy and CO2 reduction cost of

future vehicles Recent progress on prototype fuel-cell vehicles Estimates by the Office of Transportation Technologies

(OTT), U.S. DOE

Discussion Difference of fuel economy between test mode and

actual use

Conclusions Outlook on possible future work

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Vehicle Type by Prime Mover Current Vehicle

Internal Combustion Vehicle (ICE) Electric Vehicle (EV) Alternative Fuel Vehicle (AFV)

CNG, E85, M85, etc. Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)

Toyota Prius, Honda Insight, Honda Civic, etc.

Future Vehicle Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) => commercial in

2003 (?)

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0.1

1

10

100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)

Fuel

eco

nom

y (k

m/M

J)

EV

AFV

HEV

ICE

累乗(EV)累乗(HEV)累乗(AFV)累乗(ICE)

Fuel Economy of Current Vehiclesmeasured according to Japan 10.15 test mode

1 km/MJ (gasoline) = 82 gallon/mile = 2.87 L/100km = 34.8 km/L

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measured according to Japan 10.15 test mode

10

100

1000

10000

100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)

Driv

ing

rang

e (k

m/c

harg

e)

EVAFVHEVICE

Driving Range of Current Vehicles

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CO2 Coefficient of Fuels(electricity: US generation mix, 1998)

Sources: 1. Argonne National Laboratory, “GREET 1.5 - Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model, Volume 1: Methodology, Development, Use, and Results”, 1999 2. IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 1971-1998, 2000 Edition, OECD, 2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Gasoline Dieselfuel

CNG LPG Ethanol(E85)

Electricity

Fuel type

CO

2 co

effici

ents

(g-

CO

2/M

J)

1

1

1 1

1

2

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10

100

1000

100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)

CO2

emis

sion

(g-

CO2/

km)

EVAFVHEVICE

CO2 Emission of Current Vehicles

(electricity: US generation mix, 1998)

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Commercial Hybrid Vehicles (HEVs)

Honda (http://www.honda.co.jp)

Toyota (http://www.toyota.co.jp)

Nissan (http://www.nissan.co.jp)

Insight (1999) Tino (1999)Civic (2001)

Prius (1997, 2001) Estima (2001) Crown (2001)

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1

10

100

1000

100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)

Red

uctio

n of

CO

2 em

issi

on

(g-C

O2/

km)

EV

AFV

HEV

Reduction of CO2 Emissionsrelative to same model with internal combustion

engine

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Calculation of CO2 Reduction Cost

• Assumption• Annual mileage = 15,000 km/yr

• Annualization factor = 10 %/yr

• Fuel price in the U.S. in 2000

• Maintenance cost is not considered(same between ICE and other vehicles)

CO2 reduction cost

= [US$/ton]increase of annual cost

reduction of annual CO2 emission

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10

100

1000

10000

100000

100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)

CO2

redu

ctio

n co

st (

US$

/t-C

O2)

EV

AFV

HEV

CO2 Reduction Cost of Current Vehiclesrelative to same carline vehicle with internal combustion engine

Toyota Crown: 56Honda Civic: 662

Nissan Tino: 802

Toyota Estima: 111

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CO2 Reduction Cost of Future Power Plants with CO2

CaptureRelative to same type plant without CO2 capture

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700Net power output (MW)

CO

2 re

duct

ion

cost

(U

S$/t

on) Coal IGCC

Coal PCNG CC系列4系列5系列6 average of Coal PC

average of NGCC

average of Coal IGCC

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Mercedes Benz Fuel Cell Sprinter (2001)

Ford Focus FCV (2001)

Honda FCX-V4 (2001)

market in 2003

Toyota FCHV-4 (2001)market in 2003, (80,000

US$)

Volkswagen Bora (2002)

Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCV)

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Information available in“Program Analysis Methodology, Quality

Metrics”Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT), U.S. DOE

Vehicle Type (light-duty passenger cars) Large Car, Small Car, Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV), Minivan, Pickup Truck

Prime Mover Internal Combustion Engine (ICE), Advanced Diesel (A-diesel), Flex Alcohol (Flex) Fuel Cell – Hydrogen (FC-H2), Fuel Cell – Gasoline (FC-gasoline) Spark Ignition Direct Injection (SIDI), Electric vehicle (EV) Hybrid Electric Vehicle – 2x fuel economy (HEV 2x) and 3x fuel economy (HEV 3x)

Fuel Economy Vehicle Cost Maintenance Cost Status Year (initial [2000~2017] and 2030)

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1

10

100

1000

100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)

Vehi

cle

cost

(10

00US$

)

EVAFVHEVICE

0.1

1

10

100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)

Fuel

eco

nom

y (k

m/M

J)

EVAFVHEVICE

Fuel Economy and Cost of FCV in 2030 Estimated in Program Analysis Methodology by

OTT/DOE

DOE estimates

DOE estimates

Fuel Economy Vehicle cost

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Price and CO2 Emission of Hydrogen

•Production method• Methane Reforming• Gasification (Biomass, Coal, MSW)• Electrolysis (Alkaline, PEM)• Solar Energy

•Location• Central or Distributed station• On-board

•Transportation• Pipeline or Truck

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

CMR, pipe CMR, pipe,w/CO2 rem

CMR, truck CMR, truck,w/CO2 rem

Onsite MR

Hyd

rog

en

pri

ce (

US

$/G

J)

station tank and pump

station dispenser

station labor

station storage

station compressor

electricity

truck transport

liquidification

local pipleline

central pipeline

CO2 deposition

CO2 removal

reforming plant

natural gas

Estimate of Hydrogen Retail Price

Source: The Environmental Assessment of Direct Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles - An analysis of the literature (draft), Edgar Hertwich and Anders Stroemman (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

12.8 US$/GJ

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Gasoline Dieselfuel

CNG LPG Ethanol(E85)

Electricity H2 pipe H2 pipew/CO2capture

H2 truck H2 truckw/CO2capture

Fuel type

CO

2 co

effici

ents

(g-

CO

2/M

J)Estimates of CO2 Coefficient

Sources: 1. Argonne National Laboratory, “GREET 1.5 - Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model, Volume 1: Methodology, Development, Use, and Results”, 1999 2. IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 1971-1998, 2000 Edition, OECD, 2000 3. Norwegian University of Science and Technology,”The Environmental Assessment of Direct Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles - An analysis of the literature (draft), 2002

1

1

1 1

1

2 3

3

3

3

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-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

SmallCar

LargeCar

SUV Minivan Pickuptruck

Vehicle type

CO2

redu

ctio

n co

st (

US$

/ton

) FCV-H2 HEV 2x

light heavy

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

SmallCar

LargeCar

SUV Minivan Pickuptruck

Vehicle type

CO2

emis

sion

(g-

CO2/

km)

FCV-H2 HEV 2x ICE (conv)

light heavy

CO2 Reduction Cost of FCV and HEV

(15,000 km/yr in 2030)CO2 emission

CO2 reduction costrelative to ICE vehicle

Source: “Program Analysis Methodology, Quality Metrics”, Office of Transportation Technologies, U.S. DOE

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DiscussionProblem in using test mode data for new type vehicles because of different equipment from conventional ICE vehicleFor example, in case of HEV and EV

Battery discharge during long time stop or no use

Regenerative braking system additional factor for fuel economy recoverable kinetic energy depends on actual driving pattern

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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005model year

actu

al /

(10

.15

mod

e)

gasoline : AT/CVTgasoline : MTdiesel

priusestima HEV

Comparison of Fuel Economy Between Actual Use and Test

Mode

Source: http://auto.ascii24.com/auto24/e-nenpi/ranking/ranking_index.html

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Conclusions CO2 reduction cost of commercial HEV

56 ~ 800 US$/ton-CO2 (15,000 km/yr)

CO2 reduction potential of FCV is higher than HEV

HEV might be more cost effective for CO2 reduction than FCV in the medium run (2030)

CO2 reduction cost of vehicles could be smaller in large vehicles (SUV, Minivan)

CO2 reduction cost of future vehicles might be comparable to that of central power plant with CO2 capture technology (20 ~ 120 US$/ton-CO2)

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Outlook on Possible Future Work

Cost and CO2 emission of hydrogen

production and distribution

Evaluation of fuel economy in actual vehicle

use Evaluation for other regions in the world

(CO2 emission of electricity, fuel cost, etc.)

Assessment by using a global energy model

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A tool for collecting and analyzing detailed data on carbon mitigation technologies

Containing detailed technical, economic and environmental characteristics as well as data on innovation, commercialization and diffusion in some 2400 entries

IIASA’s CO2DB Database